- Corn, soybean, wheat, and ethanol futures settled lower while crude oil fell slightly and gasoline and heating oil rose.
- The euro continued declining against the dollar and non-farm payrolls added 200,000 jobs but weakness in Europe weighed on markets.
- Ethanol futures ended little changed and physical ethanol prices were steady. Corn exports were below expectations.
DAILY COMMODITY REPORT BY EPIC RESEARCH- 21 DECEMBER 2012
20120106 pfl biofuelmarketsdaily
1. Desk: 239-390-2885
BIOFUEL MARKETS DAILY January 6, 2012
CBOT ETHANOL RBOB CRUDE HEATING OIL
Month Settle Prev Chg Month Settle Prev Chg Month Settle Prev Chg Month Settle Prev Chg
Feb 12 2.2230 2.223 0.000 Feb 12 2.7516 2.7365 0.0151 Feb 12 101.56 101.81 (0.25) Feb 12 3.0702 3.0388 0.0314
Mar 12 2.2430 2.245 (0.002) Mar 12 2.7642 2.7480 0.0162 Mar 12 101.78 102.00 (0.22) Mar 12 3.0638 3.0361 0.0277
Apr 12 2.2610 2.261 0.000 Apr 12 2.9003 2.8787 0.0216 Apr 12 102.04 102.21 (0.17) Apr 12 3.0463 3.0240 0.0223
May 12 2.2840 2.292 (0.008) May 12 2.8976 2.8758 0.0218 May 12 102.30 102.42 (0.12) May 12 3.0276 3.0099 0.0177
Jun 12 2.3070 2.307 0.000 Jun 12 2.8781 2.8556 0.0225 Jun 12 102.46 102.52 (0.06) Jun 12 3.0150 2.9993 0.0157
Jul 12 2.3300 2.320 0.010 Jul 12 2.8536 2.8304 0.0232 Jul 12 102.50 102.49 0.01 Jul 12 3.0131 2.9970 0.0161
CORN SOYBEANS WHEAT NATGAS
Month Settle Prev Chg Month Settle Prev Chg Month Settle Prev Chg Month Settle Prev Chg
Mar 12 643.50 643.50 0.00 Jan 12 1189.50 1201.25 (11.75) Mar 12 624.75 629.25 (4.50) Feb 12 3.062 2.980 0.082
May 12 650.75 651.50 (0.75) Mar 12 1196.50 1209.00 (12.50) May 12 643.75 648.50 (4.75) Mar 12 3.098 3.017 0.081
Jul 12 655.75 657.25 (1.50) May 12 1206.00 1218.75 (12.75) Jul 12 660.25 664.75 (4.50) Apr 12 3.154 3.082 0.072
Sep 12 602.25 606.50 (4.25) Jul 12 1214.50 1227.50 (13.00) Sep 12 676.50 680.75 (4.25) May 12 3.208 3.138 0.070
Dec 12 575.25 579.50 (4.25) Aug 12 1209.50 1222.75 (13.25) Dec 12 697.75 703.00 (5.25) Jun 12 3.260 3.193 0.067
Mar 13 587.25 591.75 (4.50) Sep 12 1199.25 1212.50 (13.25) Mar 13 711.50 716.75 (5.25) Jul 12 3.316 3.251 0.065
Ethanol Crush Spread Pricing The Euro continued its decline trading at 1.2723 against the dollar late in the day, while the dollar index rose
Feb 12 (0.2106) Q3 11 (0.124) to its best level in over a year. Markets initially cheered the US NonFarm Payrolls report which showed that
the country added 200,000 jobs in the month of December, but after an initial surge, traders turned their focus
Mar 12 (0.1546) Q4 11 (0.036) towards weakness in Europe and the uncertainty still surrounding Iran's response to increased sanctions.
Apr 12 (0.1042) Q1 12 (0.017) Energy markets finished the week higher, products added to gains today, RBOB settled at $2.7516, Heating Oil
May 12 (0.1123) Q2 12 0.176 at $3.0702, while crude fell 25 cents but closed higher on the week at $101.56. Ethanol futures ended a down
week little changed on the day. January futures came off the board and February settled at $2.223. Physical
Jun 12 (0.0479) Q312 0.066 markets were steady from day ago levels, FOB NE traded $2.10 on UP and Rule 11 $2.18 at parity with Argo.
Nationwide Ethanol Indicative Pricing RIN markets saw some clean up activity for 2011 volumes with E11s in the low 30 points, D4 RINs in the middle
120 cent range and D5s traded in the mid to upper 70 cents. Corn markets traded in a tight range after the
Location Bid Ask weekly export sales for the current marketing year came in at 299,500 metric tonnes, below the expected
Argo ITT 2.180 2.200 range, but with cumulative sales of 60.7% of the USDA forecast it is running ahead of the 5 year average of
52.3%. Mar corn spent the entire day session in a 7 cent range but closed on the lows at $6.435 unchanged on
New York 2.310 2.330 the day. Export sales for soybeans again came in below expectations and cumulative sales now stand at 68.2%
Gulf Coast 2.260 2.320 of estimates versus a 73.2% 5 year average. A late day break below the $12.00 mark created some additional
selling pressure and beans for March delivery closed lower by 12.5 cents at $11.965.
Los Angeles 2.300 2.340 f
DOE Storage (mbbl) F/X NEAR MARKET SUMMARY
Periods Crude Gasoline Distillate USD Index 81.26 Energy
This Week 329.7 220.2 143.6 Brazilian Real 1.851 WTI (Cash) 101.73
Last Week 327.5 217.7 140.4 Canadian Dollar 1.0276 Brent 113.22
Last Year 335.3 218.1 162.1 Euro 1.2721 NYMEX Crude 101.56
Change 2.2 2.5 3.2 Japanese Yen 76.97 B100 SME Chicago 4.71
Front Month Ethanol Crush Spread B100 SME Gulf Coast 4.83
B100 FAME Chicago 4.52
8.00 1.5
B100 FAME Gulf Co. 4.60
Ag Products
7.50 1 White Grease (cnt/lb) 37.50
Yellow Grease (cnt/lb) 33.50
Tallow (cnt/lb) 45.50
7.00 0.5
Soybean Meal 309.60
Soybean Oil 50.80
6.50 0
Canola (CAD Dollar) 516.40
Sugar (cnt/lb) 23.29
Dry DDG-Chicago(wkly 201.50
6.00 -0.5 Market Indices
DJ-Commodity Index 142.550
5.50 -1
DJ Industrials 12359.9
10/26/2011 11/5/2011 11/15/2011 11/25/2011 12/5/2011 12/15/2011 12/25/2011 1/4/2012
NASDAQ 2674.22
EtOH x 2.8 Corn Crush Spread S&P 500 1277.81
Gold 1617.80
This report has been prepared by Progressive Fuels Limited (PFL) personnel for your information only and the views expressed are intended to provide market commentary and are not recommendations. This report is not an offer to sell or a solicitation
of any offer to buy any security. The information contained herein has been compiled by PFL from sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made by Progressive Fuels Limited, its affiliates or any other
person as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. Copyright 2007 Progressive Fuels Limited. All Rights Reserved.
2. PFL BIOFUEL MARKETS DAILY COMMENTARY January 6, 2012
RBOB/Ethanol/RINs
3.00 0.10
2.90 0.09
2.80 0.08
2.70 0.07
2.60 0.06
2.50 0.05
2.40 0.04
2.30 0.03
2.20 0.02
2.10 0.01
2.00 0.00
26-Oct 15-Nov 5-Dec 25-Dec
RBOB Ethanol 10 E RINs 11 E RINS
Ethanol RIN Pricing (cts/RIN) Biodiesel RIN Pricing (cts/RIN)
Year Type Bid Ask Year Type Bid Ask
2010 D6 0.12 0.17 2010 D4 130.00 135.00
2010 D3 90.00 105.00 2010 D5 60.00 70.00
2011 D6 0.30 0.35 2011 D4 125.00 128.00
2011 D3 113.00 113.00 2011 D5 77.00 80.00
2012 D6 1.80 2.00 2012 D4 156.00 158.00
2012 D3 113.00 113.00 2012 D5 78.00 81.00
D6 = Corn Ethanol RIN D4 = Biodiesel RIN
D3 = Cellulosic Ethanol RIN D5 = Advanced Biodiesel or Renewable Diesel RIN
RBOB CBOT Ethanol RBOB/Etoh Ethanol Swaps Nationwide Etoh Pricing
Month(s) Spread CBOT Location Bid Ask
Feb 12 2.7516 2.2230 (0.5286) Month(s) Bid Ask Atlanta/Doraville 2.320 2.350
Mar 12 2.7642 2.2430 (0.5212) Feb-12 2.235 2.240 Chicago Rule 11 2.180 2.200
Apr 12 2.9003 2.2610 (0.6393) Mar-12 2.255 2.270 Dallas 2.230 2.250
May 12 2.8976 2.2840 (0.6136) Q2 12 2.300 2.315 FOB NE BN 2.050 2.070
Jun 12 2.8781 2.3070 (0.5711) Q3 12 2.265 2.280 FOB NE UP 2.080 2.100
Jul 12 2.8536 2.3300 (0.5236) Q4 12 2.125 2.145 Northern California 2.300 2.320
Aug 12 2.8274 2.3320 (0.4954) Q1 13 2.120 2.140 Pacifc Northwest 2.280 2.300
Soybean Oil/Heating Oil/Biodiesl RINs
2.0000
4.30
4.10
1.8000
3.90
1.6000
3.70
3.50 1.4000
26.85
3.30
1.2000
3.10
1.0000
2.90
2.70 0.8000
26-Oct 5-Nov 15-Nov 25-Nov 5-Dec 15-Dec 25-Dec 4-Jan
BO $/gal HO 10 BD 11 BD
This report has been prepared by Progressive Fuels Limited (PFL) personnel for your information only and the views expressed are intended to provide market commentary and are not recommendations. This report is not an offer to sell or a solicitation of any
offer to buy any security. The information contained herein has been compiled by PFL from sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made by Progressive Fuels Limited, its affiliates or any other person as to its
accuracy, completeness or correctness. Copyright 2007 Progressive Fuels Limited. All Rights Reserved.
3. PFL BIOFUEL MARKETS DAILY COMMENTARY January 6, 2012
ETHANOL CHART CORN
R3 2.390 660 R3 677.4
2.700
R2 2.340 650 R2 667.5
2.600
R1 2.292 640
R1 656.6
630
2.500 S1 2.158 620
S1 630.9
2.400 S2 2.117 610 S2 619.9
2.300 S3 2.078 600 S3 610.5
2.200
5DMA 2.216 590
5DMA 645.5
580
20DMA 2.159 570
20DMA 626.2
2.100
100DMA 2.560 560 100DMA 640.1
2.000 11-Nov 26-Nov 11-Dec 26-Dec
18-Nov 3-Dec 18-Dec 2-Jan
RBOB SOYBEANS
2.8
R3 2.9272 1240
R3 1254.7
2.75
R2 2.8663 R2 1231.4
1220
R1 2.8367 R1 1213.8
2.7
1200
S1 2.6715 S1 1166.2
2.65
S2 2.6206 1180 S2 1150.4
2.6
S3 2.5716 1160 S3 1124.3
2.55
5DMA 2.7362 1140
5DMA 1199.2
2.5
20DMA 2.6599 20DMA 1174.4
1120
2.45 100DMA 2.6886 100DMA 1217.0
1100
2.4
11-Nov 26-Nov 11-Dec 26-Dec
11-Nov 26-Nov 11-Dec 26-Dec
.
CRUDE WHEAT
R3 112.84 665
R3 674.7
104 R2 108.04 655 R2 664.6
102 R1 104.70 645 R1 650.8
100 S1 98.60 635
S1 600.7
625
98 S2 95.81 S2 589.4
615
96
S3 92.33 605
S3 752.2
5DMA 101.54 595
5DMA 636.1
94
20DMA 99.65 585 20DMA 624.0
92
100DMA 94.97 575 100DMA 638.4
90 565
11-Nov 23-Nov 5-Dec 17-Dec 29-Dec 11-Nov 26-Nov 11-Dec 26-Dec
HEATING OIL NATURAL GAS
3.2 R3 3.2472 R3 3.328
3.15 R2 3.1570 3.9 R2 3.223
3.1
R1 3.1091 R1 3.124
3.05 3.7
S1 3.0323 S1 3.002
3
2.95
S2 2.9953 3.5 S2 2.916
2.9 S3 2.9198 S3 2.871
3.3
2.85 5DMA 3.0316 5DMA 3.040
2.8 20DMA 2.9623 3.1 20DMA 3.146
2.75 100DMA 2.9704 100DMA 3.556
2.7 2.9
11-Nov 26-Nov 11-Dec 26-Dec 8-Nov 23-Nov 8-Dec 23-Dec
WEATHER
City H/L The Midwest sees a sunny to partly cloudy and dry day for most
Chicago 48/31 areas with just a few flurries and snow showers from northern
New York 48/40 Minnesota to northwest Michigan. The majority of the Northeast
Houston 72/57 also sees a nice and dry day toady. Some isolated showers and
thunderstorms are possible from coastal Texas to southern
Los Angeles 74/52 Mississippi but other than that the South will also see a mild and
Washington D.C. 56/39 dry day today. The Northwest and northern Rockies will see some
St. Louis 62/36 rain and snow showers and temperatures will be close to average.
Naples, Florida 71/45
This report has been prepared by Progressive Fuels Limited (PFL) personnel for your information only and the views expressed are intended to provide market commentary and are
not recommendations. This report is not an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy any security. The information contained herein has been compiled by PFL from sources
believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made by Progressive Fuels Limited, its affiliates or any other person as to its accuracy, completeness
or correctness. Copyright 2007 Progressive Fuels Limited. All Rights Reserved.