Blog – What is next for Monetary Policies – Canada – October 2022 Inflation especially food costs continue to impact global consumers. Countries like Canada have targeted an inflation rate of 2.1%. The current inflation rate is about 6.9%, or about three times the target rate. Canada is schedule to hike payroll taxes and carbon taxes in 2023 - https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/ken-mcdonald-carbon-tax-exemption-home-heating-1.6628460 Housing prices continue to fall. Housing affordability continues to be challenge for people around the world - https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/the-daily-chase-looking-ahead-toward-boc-announcement-canopy-looks-to-grow-u-s-footprint-1.1836958 Slower demand has improved port throughput, but there are still issues with lack of capacity to manage exports and imports. https://www.manilatimes.net/2022/10/26/business/maritime/iaph-takes-steps-to-close-port-gaps/1863673 Canada was seeing slow growth back in 2019. The Liberals policies did little to address issues with innovation, skills, productivity, regulations, and tax reforms. Liberals decided to focus on bigger government! https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/201-election-canada-and-world-slow-economic-growth-august-2019 BOC and other reserve banks need to think extremely hard about rising of interest rates. The threat of global recession grows each day. BOC would be better off to pause interest rates and look at other areas of policies as part of managing monetary government. The federal government should be focus on drastic policy changes including pausing all new tax hikes including hikes to CPP, EI, and carbon tax. The focus should be on addressing issues with port capacity, promoting more innovation, productivity improvements, skills gap, housing supply, and streamlining of taxation and regulations as it relates to the goods-producing sector.

1. WHAT IS MONETARY
POLICY AND WHY IS
IT IMPORTANT TO
GOVERNMENT
Paul Young CPA CGA
October 26, 2022

2. PAUL YOUNG - BIO
• CPA, CGA
• Academia (PF1, FA4, FN2, MU1. and MS2)
• SME – Risk Management
• SME – Close, Consolidate and Reporting
• SME – Public Policy
• SME – Emerging Technology
• SME – Business Process Change
• SME – Financial Solutions
• SME – Macro/Micro Indicators
• SME – Supply Chain Management
• SME – Data, AI, Security, and Platform
• SME – Internal Controls and Auditing
Contact information email: Paul_Young_CGA@hotmail.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/paul-young-055632b/
SlideShare - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga
Twitter: https://twitter.com/paulyoungcpa
Youtube - https://www.youtube.com/user/youngercga1968/videos

3. AGENDA
• What is monetary policies?
• GDP Growth
• Canada and Inflation
• Canada and Producer Price
• Housing
• Cost of Living
• Household Debt
• GDP
• Fiscal Management
• Innovation
• Productivity and Competitiveness

4. WHAT IS MONETARY POLICY
Source - https://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/monetarypolicy.asp

5. BANK OF CANADA / MONETARY POLICIES
• There are issues with GDP: a) Productivity b) FDI
outflow c) Lack of innovation d) Higher
Commodities e) government deficits and taxes
• About 40% of the job vacancies are with jobs that
pay less than the average wage
• Size of household debt continues to be an issue
• Lack of affordable housing options
• Global Trade and protectionism
Source - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/bmo-
7-reasons-to-be-exciting-about-the-canadian-economy
My concerns with the BOC saying inflation dropping from 5.3% in 2022 to 2018 is not realistic and here is why:
• Liberals plan hikes to carbon tax - https://nationalpost.com/news/politics/federal-carbon-tax-to-increase-to-170-per-tonne-
by-2030-as-liberals-unveil-new-climate-plan
• Critical metals have risk due to supply and refinement capacity issues. https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-
News/America-Desperately-Needs-To-Scale-Up-Battery-Metal-Production.html
• Huge capital needs to be spent on areas like the electrical grid and plug-in stations (electrical vehicle adoption)
• Housing issues will continue to plague the cost of housing – https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/housing-and-
homelessness-canada-and-the-world-budget-2022-pptx
• Automation will also play a key role with organizations managing their costs -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/what-is-next-for-automation
My work - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/preliminary-cost-of-living-canada-february-2022pptx

6. GDP GROWTH
This gives you a good look at how @cafreeland deficits
did nothing for GDP growth. One can make the argument
is Trudeau's policies handcuff the goods-producing sector!
16 https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/2016-
november-2016-gdp-gross-domestic-product-canada
18 https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/gdp-canada-
the-real-truth
Jan/22 - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/gdp-
analysis-and-commentary-canada-january-2022pptx

7. CANADA AND SLOW GROWTH
Conference Board of CAN predicts that economic growth will slow until Spring '23
http://www.canadianmanufacturing.com/FLWVg
@cafreeland @JustinTrudeau another private sector group is calling out CAN's GDP growth. Your policies have done
little to drive growth!
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/gdp-and-economic-analysis-canada-and-the-world-july-2022pptx

8. KEY MONETARY AREAS

9. INTEREST RATES
April 2022 Bank of
Canada Interest Rate Update - Tridac Mortgage.pdf

10. OECD AND INFLATION

11. SUMMARY - INFLATION

12. BMO – CONSUMER PRICE INDEX
Source –
https://economics.bmo.com/en/publications/detail/ae97550
d-8a18-46fc-bb31-ca013cee5f45/
BMO - Inflation - CPI
- Canada - July 2022.pdf
Canadian CPI (Aug.)
— Another Step Down a Long Road.pdf
U.S. CPI Stubbornly
Sticky.pdf
Cdn CPI — Not
Running Up That Hill, But Still On It.pdf

13. RAW MATERIAL PRICE INDEX

14. KEY COST DRIVERS

15. PURCHASE PRICE INDEX

16. INFLATION
TRENDS BY
MANDATE

17. INFLATION

18. AVERAGE HOUSING PRICE INCLUDING KEY
CITIES
https://twitter.com/TomPark1n/status/1516820865664667657
@TomPark1n
This explains why REIT are not touch!
This does not explain the high cost of land, raw material, lack of 3D
adoption, lack of rural vs urban strategy, and other systemic issues
with housing!
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/housing-and-
homelessness-canada-and-the-world-march-2022-revisedpptx
MPs with Rental Properties

19. HOUSEHOLD DEBT
RBC and Household
Debt.pdf

20. DEBT LEVELS
AND
CANADIANS
Source -
https://mnpdebt.ca/en/reso
urces/mnp-consumer-debt-
index

21. BOC
CONCERNS
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2
019/12/big-issues-ahead-the-
banks-2020-vision/

22. INNOVATION
Summary:
Justin Trudeau told the world in 2015 that Canada should be know for its resourcefulness not its resources -
https://www.macleans.ca/news/canada/what-justin-trudeau-plans-to-tell-davos/
Trudeau and his government focus has been setting up more and more agencies to manage innovation funds. Many of
these agencies have liberal running them - https://financialpost.com/technology/liberals-supercluster-program-falling-
short-of-promised-jobs-economic-growth and https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/policy-review-innovation-
and-scientific-research-rd-canada
The goods-producing sector since Trudeau took office or about 6% of all the net new jobs.
https://torontosun.com/opinion/columnists/gunter-the-public-sector-fared-very-well-during-lockdown or
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/employment-and-labour-market-canada-january-2022
I have also been saying for years that all colleges and universities should be innovation. The role of government is support
innovation through proper policies and not throw money at the symptoms!

23. PRODUCTIVITY
Did article did not age well - https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-election-2015-liberals-infrastructure-
deficits-1.3205535
Our economy needs investment to create growth," he said. "Our plan features three years of historic
investment in the Canadian economy. That growth will eliminate the Harper deficit and we will balance the
budget in 2019," This never happen under @JustinTrudeau
Yet Productivity has not improved - https://financialpost.com/opinion/opinion-bigger-post-covid-government-
may-mean-slower-productivity-growth-and-lower-incomes
Broken Promises - https://thetyee.ca/Opinion/2015/09/15/Liberals-Broken-Promises/
Records - https://www.progressive-economics.ca/2015/10/fiscal-and-economic-record-of-political-parties/
Here is my work on productivity - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/how-to-improve-canada-global-
competitiveness-250054392

24. DID JUSTIN TRUDEAU HAVE THE
ANSWERS FOR GDP
• Justin Trudeau took an economy growing at 2.3% (Post-2009 recession to annual growth on average of 2.1%.
Trudeau seen GDP go from 3.0 in 2017 to 1.6 in 2019.
• Trudeau deficits did little to address systemic issues with the economy, i.e., productivity, building a resilient
supply chain, reducing gridlock, addressing issues with household debt.
• BOC buying government bonds - https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/bank-of-canada-already-pushing-limits-of-
domestic-bond-market-1.1513097
• Canada economy - Blog – GDP – Canada by Industry – May 2021 -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/gdp-canada-naics-may-2021
• Canada economy – 2019 - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/2019-election-world-economy-slow-
growth-canada-july-2019
• Trudeaunomics continues to be a failure - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/has-trudeuaomics-been-
successful-for-canadians
• GDP – 2021 Despite all the deficits the economy continues to face major headways for the rest of 2021. It
goes to show Canadians that economies do not grow from the heart as @JustinTrudeau predicted a few
years ago! https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/gdp-canada-analysis-and-commentary-june-2021

25. GOVERNMENT AND MONETARY
POLICIES
• The government needs to grasp the BOC policies as part of any fiscal management cycle. Trudeau has since
day one increase the budget deficit without addressing key areas impacting supply chain and the
affordability of housing. Trudeau carbon tax had an impact on inflation.
https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/100314/whats-difference-between-monetary-policy-and-fiscal-
policy.asp
• Inflation is now at 3.7% which is a concern of the BOC - https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2016/10/renewal-of-
the-inflation-control-target-2016/

26. BOC – INFLATION AND HOUSING
BUBBLE
Tiff Macklem faced some tough questioning yesterday, as members of the
U.S. Council on Foreign Relations grilled the Bank of Canada governor on
whether their northern neighbour would have a trouble-free exit from the
downturn of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Led by financier and former Democratic politician Roger Altman, members of
the U.S. think-tank asked probing questions on whether Canada's housing
bubble would have any spillover effects on the global economy, as well as
on jobs, inflation, commodity pricing and the difficulty of moving from a low
interest rate regime to one without monetary stimulus.
To Canadians who have heard Macklem's views in the past, the answers
were in some ways less revealing than the questions. But among the new
things he did pass on were fears that inflation could well turn out to be more
long-lasting than expected and jobs recovery could be slower.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/boc-us-
concerns-column-don-pittis-
1.6203452?__vfz=medium%3Dsharebar
I am very concerned about these kinds of
messaging from BOC. There are structural issues
facing the economy like low productivity, high
taxes, excessive regulations, and
inefficient/ineffective government.
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/what-is-
the-path-forward-for-canada-october-2021

27. FISCAL MANAGEMENT
Source - https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-
michael-sabia-was-greeted-as-a-game-changer-as-canadas-
deputy-
finance/?utm_medium=Referrer:+Social+Network+/+Media&ut
m_campaign=Shared+Web+Article+Links
• YTD Nov/15 there was 1B surplus (per the fiscal
monitor) that was turned into 987M deficit within a
few months of Justin Trudeau leadership
• Trudeau has spent well over $6B (3B in 2020) on
consultants -
https://nationalpost.com/news/politics/costs-for-
consultants-hired-by-government-rise-by-6-billion-
under-liberals
• Trudeau GDP growth went from 3% in to 2017 to
1.4% in 2019. The economy had been sluggish two
years prior to COVID19 -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/slow-
economic-growth-canada-march-2020
• Trudeau spending grew faster than revenues despite
strong revenues -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/fiscal-
management-public-sector-canada-250734309

28. FISCAL MANAGEMENT CYCLE
• Trudeau has spent billions on consultants
• Trudeau refuses to release his economic impact study on the carbon tax
• Australia has done a better job of getting goods out of the ground to
market
• Trudeau’s policies never addressed issues with productivity and
innovation.
• Trudeau increased taxes to the middle class
• Trudeau policies have done little to support FDI
• Pre-COVID19 Deficits were between 12B to $15B and yet growth was
less than the average post 2009 recession
• Trudeau continues to ignore AG, PBO, ethics, and other reports
• Trudeau took $1B surplus YTD Nov/15 to 987M deficit in four months.
Trudeau was never about value for money including improving
outcomes.
Source - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/failure-of-
trudeaunomics-january-2022

29. COMPETITIVENESS
Canada continues to struggle with productivity.
Wages continue to rise.
Business automation spending continue to grow for both the private and public sectors
Carbon tax and high commodity prices are leading to a rise of raw material costs.
Canada GDP would be performing much better if all levels of government work together on policies that
would support FDI in the goods producing sector.
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/how-to-address-competitiveness-for-canada-august-
2022pptx

30. SUMMARY
• I have always supported balance policies between protecting the environment while growing the economy in a sustainable way.
• I also support social welfare as long as those payments are targeted at those that need the support.
• Bank of Canada has renewed the 2% inflation rate target. The problem is that there are structural issues with the economy that need
to be address if inflation can be brought down to the 2% range from 4.7% range.
• Housing needs concrete solutions including new urban planning strategy, adoption of 3D housing and other innovations as part
delivering affordable housing solutions.
• All levels of government need to work together to address issues with productivity, innovation, and skills gap
• All levels of government need to revisit their fiscal management cycle to ensure assets are safeguarding and program spending is
delivered with value for money,
• All levels of government need to undertake compensation and tax reforms as part of better managing both their costs and taxation
base.
Blog – What is next for Monetary Policies – Canada – October 2022
Inflation especially food costs continue to impact global consumers. Countries like Canada have targeted
an inflation rate of 2.1%. The current inflation rate is about 6.9%, or about three times the target rate.
Canada is schedule to hike payroll taxes and carbon taxes in 2023 -
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/ken-mcdonald-carbon-tax-exemption-home-
heating-1.6628460
Housing prices continue to fall. Housing affordability continues to be challenge for people around the
world - https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/the-daily-chase-looking-ahead-toward-boc-announcement-
canopy-looks-to-grow-u-s-footprint-1.1836958
Slower demand has improved port throughput, but there are still issues with lack of capacity to manage
exports and imports. https://www.manilatimes.net/2022/10/26/business/maritime/iaph-takes-steps-to-
close-port-gaps/1863673
Canada was seeing slow growth back in 2019. The Liberals policies did little to address issues with
innovation, skills, productivity, regulations, and tax reforms. Liberals decided to focus on bigger
government! https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/201-election-canada-and-world-slow-
economic-growth-august-2019
BOC and other reserve banks need to think extremely hard about rising of interest rates. The threat of
global recession grows each day. BOC would be better off to pause interest rates and look at other areas
of policies as part of managing monetary government. The federal government should be focus on
drastic policy changes including pausing all new tax hikes including hikes to CPP, EI, and carbon tax. The
focus should be on addressing issues with port capacity, promoting more innovation, productivity
improvements, skills gap, housing supply, and streamlining of taxation and regulations as it relates to
the goods-producing sector.
Global growth in
construction of US$5.6 trillion is forecasted by 2037 as the world transitions to clean energy - Oxford Economics.pdf
How Vertical Farming
And AgTech Can Help Address Food Insecurity.pdf
China’s Lithium
Appetite to Fuel European Production, Miner Says.pdf
Canada examining
how to keep its carbon capture competitive in wake of U.S. incentives CBC News.pdf
Recession or Inflation
Governments around the world must pick their poison NPR.pdf
Digital Skills Hiring
Orgs Say 5G, Crypto & Metaverse 'Here to Stay' -- Virtualization Review.pdf
PIAC reiterates
objections to pension super-priority bill Benefits Canada.com.pdf
DB plans financial
health continues to withstand volatile markets and historic inflation Mercer Canada.pdf
Transition to net zero
by 2050 will cost investors $100trillion This is Money.pdf
New approaches to
water management in agricultural operations AGDAILY.pdf
Desalination - The
answer to water scarcity – DW – 07_29_2022.pdf
Is ESG working
There’s no data to tell, says top university Wealth Professional.pdf
2020 Updates to
Pew's Fiscal Sustainability Matrix The Pew Charitable Trusts.pdf
N.L. Liberal MP votes
with Conservatives over home heating fuel carbon tax exemption CBC News.pdf
The Daily Chase
Looking ahead toward BoC announcement; Canopy looks to grow U.S. footprint - BNN Bloomberg.pdf
IAPH takes steps to
close port gaps The Manila Times.pdf
Foreign ‘adversaries’
may have leveraged ‘freedom movement’ to advance agendas memo Globalnews.ca.pdf
Forward Guidance
Our Weekly Preview - RBC Economics - Bank of Canada.pdf