Many leaders are pushing guarantee income as part of social policy reforms. The problem is guarantee income is very costly for government with limited benefit in areas of productivity and job quality.

1. GUARANTEE
INCOME – WELFARE
AND EI – CANADA
PAUL YOUNG, CPA, CGA
DATE: JULY 7, 2020

2. PAUL YOUNG - BIO
• CPA, CGA
• Academia (PF1, FA4 and MS2)
• SME – Risk Management
• SME – Close, Consolidate and Reporting
• SME – Public Policy
• SME – Internal Controls
• SME – Financial Planning and Analysis
• SME – Business Strategy
• SME – Emerging Technology
• SME – Financial Solutions
• SME – Business Process Change
• SME – Supply Chain Management
Contact information:
Paul_Young_CGA@Hotmail.com

3. AGENDA
• What is guarantee income
• Cost of Guarantee Income
• EI program
• Supply Chain Flow with Consumers and income
• Wages, Housing Prices and Inflation
• Average Wages / Canada
• Finland
• CERB
• Job Quality / Blog
• Blog – Guarantee Income

4. WHAT IS GUARANTEE INCOME
• Guaranteed minimum income (GMI) (also called
minimum income) is a system of social welfare
provision that guarantees that all citizens or families
have an income sufficient to live on, provided they
meet certain conditions.
Source - Wikipedia

5. COST OF GUARANTEE INCOME
Source - https://www.canadianmanufacturing.com/financing/basic-income-pegged-at-98b-as-calls-for-it-grow-due-to-covid-19-256637/

6. ONTARIO GUARANTEE
INCOME• Volunteers in Peterborough and the City of Kawartha Lakes have
been lobbying to be test communities for Basic Income Guarantees, a
program that ensures every resident has enough money for food, rent
and other necessities. The goal of the program is to create a healthier
population so there are fewer demands on health and other social
services when people fall into crisis.
• Retired Senator Hugh Segal’s report on a minimum income for
Ontario was released in November. It would see Ontario set up a
multi-year pilot to measure its effectiveness starting in April, 2017.
Segal recommends a monthly payment of at least $1,320 for a single
person which is about 75 per cent of the province’s poverty line.

7. EI PROGRAM
• There are different EI programs available for people, but the key is you have to qualified for those programs -
https://www.canada.ca/en/employment-social-development/programs/ei/ei-list.html
• The program has caps “For most people, the basic rate for calculating benefits is 55% of the weekly average
insurable earnings. Effective January 1, 2018, the maximum yearly insurable earnings is $51,700. This means
that you can receive a maximum amount of $547 per week.” - https://www.canada.ca/en/employment-social-
development/programs/ei/ei-list/reports/regular-benefits/duration.html
• EI fund should be spun off from the government and put into a separate private enterprise with oversight
including audits and better positioning of surpluses - https://www.canada.ca/en/employment-social-
development/programs/ei/ei-list/reports/premium/rates2020.html. Too many times govts have used the
surpluses to balance their budget and that should never happen. The fund surpluses should go back to
employers and employees through change to payouts or training support or other initiatives.

8. FEDERAL GOVERNMENT / INCOME
SUPPORT
Source - https://www.canadianmanufacturing.com/manufacturing/benefit-to-covid-19-impacted-workers-may-be-model-for-future-qualtrough-249780/
Dubbed the Canada Emergency Response Benefit,
the $2,000-a-month taxable benefit will be
available to any worker who earned $5,000 in the
previous year and whose income drops to zero due
to COVID-19.
Qualtrough says the government opted for the
single benefit because the decades-old employment
insurance system wasn’t designed to handle an
economic shock where millions of workers wouldn’t
qualify for assistance.
Funded partially outside the EI system, the new
benefit has pushed direct financial aid in the
economic package to $52 billion, out of the $107
billion overall total.
Qualtrough said close to 10% of EI-eligible workers
have applied for help in just over a week and the
labour crunch is likely to get worse.
• The government role is to review all programs to ensure
they are effective. EI has run a surpluses which
governments have used to balance their budget -
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/government-broke-law-on-
ei-financing-in-3-years-top-court-1.750084
• EI should be independent corporation with oversight
including audits
• The program should be better aligned with economic
growth and risk management -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/global-risk-and-
how-to-implement-a-risk-management-to-your-
organization
• Govts have not take lessons learn from previous stimulus
as part of re-assessing its programs -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/is-global-
economic-stimulus-required-to-support-slow-world-
economic-growth
• All level governments need to do a better job of managing
both their economy and their fiscal cycle -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/fiscal-and-
economic-management-canada-230721080

9. 2020 COVID CRISIS
• Governments always face challenges that can impact their economies. It is important for all levels of government
to properly manager risk management including risk mitigation strategies -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/global-risk-and-how-to-implement-a-risk-management-to-your-
organization
• Governments need to learn from past mistakes as part of improving things going forward. There were lessons
learn from previous outbreaks that should have form a plan on handling future crisis. The problem is
government focus is too narrow and that needs to change - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/the-
importance-of-value-for-money-and-perfomance-based-audits
• All levels of government were slow in responding the crisis. The molehill became an mountain which require
stimulus to support workers - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/global-and-canada-stimulus-response-to-
covid19

10. SUPPLY CHAIN FLOW
Consumers Retail Stores
Wholesalers Manufacturers
Analysis
• Employment Income
• Business Income
• Pension Income
• Social Welfare Payments
• Carbon Tax impacted energy costs
(AB, ON)
• Ontario has high hydro rates
• High housing costs
• Wages are not keeping pace with
inflation

11. WAGE GROWTH
Spencer Fernando – April 8, 2017
As reported by Bloomberg, average hourly wage increases were up
1.1% year-over-year, which was the lowest increase since 1998. It is
also far below the historical average of 2.7% in the last 10 years.
When looking further into the numbers, things are even worse for
permanent workers. They had the lowest wage growth since 1997.
And when it comes to the province-by-province picture, the increase
in Ontario was only 0.1% year-over-year, which is the lowest
increase ever recorded.
So much for Sunny Ways!!

12. AVERAGE WELFARE PAYMENTSyrian Refugee
$3,600/month Welfare
$850 to $1,100 /month
* Depending on province)

13. ENERGY POVERTY – PREMIER WYNNE
• There has been no shortage of industry experts or professors on this show
over the years that warned we were heading for energy poverty.
• Why did she ignore the catastrophic confirmation from experts, including
her own party sources, and continue to double down while wallowing in her
majority?
• Why did they not scrap the act that lacked due diligence, along with cost
analysis, and start over?
• Wynne play on people’s sensitivity for the environment
Global News – Scott Thompson – March 28, 2017

14. BLOG – GUARANTEE INCOME /
SWITZERLAND
Switzerland said no to Guarantee Income –
• “In Switzerland, opponents warned that the proposal would derail an economic model
that, far from showing signs of near-collapse, has allowed the country to remain among
those with the highest living standards in the world, even with a growing and aging
population. Switzerland has an unemployment rate of around 3.5 percent, less than half
the average in the European Union. The backers of the plan did not detail how it would
be financed. But the Swiss government and almost all the main political parties had
urged voters to turn down the guaranteed income plan, warning that it would require
raising an additional 25 billion Swiss francs a year through deep spending cuts or tax
increases.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/06/world/europe/switzerland-swiss-vote-basic-
income.html (You cannot tax people to prosperity)

15. BLOG – SOCIALIST DIERDRE PIKE VS
COMMON SENSE
If this person can work, then she should be working!
Hamilton has lots of jobs openings!
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/city-of-hamilton-
issues-and-solutions-may-2018 or
https://www.thespec.com/news-story/8727662-hamilton-
unemployment-rate-drops-to-4-6-per-cent/
If you notice my work is backup, right?
If this gal as well as other made poor career choices that is
their problem!

16. ONTARIO/SOCIAL SERVICES
Source – Government of Ontario
• Govt of Ontario 3rd largest
spending is social services
• Guarantee Income
Supplement requires
monitoring which means
govt workers.
• Many of the Candidates
selected either ran business
or had no interest in
working
• Welfare is need to help
people get back on their
feet. Welfare should be
more targeted to benefit the
ones that need it the most.
• Socialists feel govt role is
take care people from cradle
to grave.

17. JOB QUALITY
• There has been a job quality issue for the past 30 years. The job quality has gotten worse over the past 4+ years
due to failed economic policies of the Liberals - There is a job quality issue in Canada.
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/job-quality-canada-vs-usa
• Liberals keep pushing welfare state as part of Agenda 2030 - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/canada-
and-agenda-2030-justin-trudeau-end-state-for-canada
• COVID-19 Crisis may change how supply chain management works, especially near shoring. Countries need to
ensure their economies are competitive - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/what-is-going-on-with-
canadas-competitiveness
• Government role is set economic policies to encourage economic growth -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/slow-economic-growth-canada-march-2020

18. MARGARET THATCHER

19. PIERRE ELLIOT TRUDEAU

21. CERB
• What is the CERB?
• $500/week or $2,000 per month - https://www.canada.ca/en/revenue-agency/services/benefits/apply-
for-cerb-with-cra.html
• CERB extension / cost - $43B+ first few weeks and another $17B (extension)
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/cerb-extension-pbo-1.5623507 or https://www.pbo-dpb.gc.ca/en/covid-19
• Fraud / https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/cerb-repayments-claims-tips-abuse-1.5605838
• People making more on the CERB - https://globalnews.ca/news/7092281/cerb-back-to-work-dilemma/.

22. FINLAND AND GUARANTEE INCOME
Source - https://www.reuters.com/article/us-finland-basic-income-
idUSKCN1PX0NM?utm_campaign=trueAnthem:+Trending+Content&utm_content=5c5d4d5b04d3011dd162b83f&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter
Finland said “Guarantee Income did nothing for employment
Source -
https://globalnews.ca/news/4777313/liberals-
national-guaranteed-income/
The Trudeau Liberals appear to be
warming to the idea of a guaranteed
national minimum income as they
search for ways to help Canadian
workers adapt to an unsteady labor
market.
It has been the liberals that have introduced
bad policies
• C69 – Pipelines
• Carbon Taxation
• Small Business Tax Reforms
• Hikes to CPP
Source -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/is-
canada-losing-its-business-competitiveness-
february-2019

23. JOB QUALITY
Here is a look at job quality - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/job-quality-canada-235057299
1. There is a job quality issue.
2. Government needs to focus on the goods producing sector
3. Technology is going to lead to more automation
4. Public sector needs to be reformed.
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/canada-what-is-happening-with-the-middle-class

24. BLOG – GUARANTEE INCOME
• More op-eds by CBC as an attempt to show @justintrudeau managing of the financing is on par with Harper
• Trudeau has increase overall spending from year over year average was 6.7% as compare to Harper’s 3.8%
• Trudeau took $1B surplus and turned it into $18B deficit
• Trudeau decided to slash the AG performance management audits, why?
• Trudeau has a made a mess of every file including immigration - https://torontosun.com/news/national/illegal-border-processing-
costs-alone-to-exceed-1-billion-pbo-report
• Trudeau’s policies are more about votes than sound policies. The tax cut did little when you factor in Trudeau eliminated income
tax splitting, boutique tax credits and hiked CPP - https://www.thechronicleherald.ca/news/canada/for-millennials-in-canada-the-
middle-class-dream-slips-a-little-further-away-oecd-300708/ or https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/2019-election-middle-
class-canada-june-2019
• Trudeau’s policies have made Canada less competitive - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/2019-election-canada-and-global-
competitiveness-may-2019
• You cannot not just look at GDP ratios. You also need to look at outcomes along with expense growth year over year in relation to
Taxation and GDP growth - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/2019-election-gdp-and-economy-canada
• Trudeau’s policies have support only 10% increase in goods producing sector jobs. Goods producing sector jobs pay on average 40%
more than service sector jobs. - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/2019-election-employment-market-canada-may-2019
•
• Source – https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/2019-election-fiscal-management-canada-june-2019

25. SUMMARY
Source - https://www.metronews.ca/news/winnipeg/2016/03/03/winnipeg-mp-petition-for-guaranteed-income.html
• The MP table the change has said nothing about the $185B that is already available to various groups as part of the income re-
distribution. We have seen in Scandinavia countries that if you change income with people then it does not motivate them to achieve
more in life.
• Let's face facts current programs that support low income except for minimum wage are paid out a tax bucket. So, if you make changes
then you likely going to either change threshold for people or you are going take control of the money and lump into one group of people.
The problem with guarantee income it means different things to different groups of people
• Trudeau has decided to raised taxes as well as introduced more regulations - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/class-warfare-
canada-taxation-february-2019 or https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/designing-social-programs-and-tax-fairness-policies
• Wealth tax and its impact - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/wealth-tax-does-the-world-need-a-wealth-tax
• Trudeau focus has not been about making Canada competitive in terms of Foreign Direct investment -
https://biv.com/article/2019/01/headwinds-horizon-canadian-mining
• Trudeau is trying to used guarantee income to buy votes because his economic policies have been failures -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/gdp-analysis-canada-november-2018