Here is my analysis of the Canadian economy based on December 2021 and November 2021 data

1. HAS CANADA
RECOVER FROM
COVID19 RECESSION
Paul Young CPA CGA
February 2., 2022

2. PAUL YOUNG CPA CGA - BIO
• CPA, CGA
• Academia (PF1, FA4, FN2, MU1. and MS2)
• SME – Risk Management
• SME – Close, Consolidate and Reporting
• SME – Public Policy
• SME – Emerging Technology
• SME – Business Process Change
• SME – Financial Solutions
• SME – Macro/Micro Indicators
• SME – Supply Chain Management
• SME – Data, AI, Security, and Platform
• SME – Internal Controls and Auditing
Contact information email: Paul_Young_CGA@hotmail.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/paul-young-055632b/
SlideShare - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga
Twitter: https://twitter.com/paulyoungcpa
YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/user/youngercga1968/videos

3. AGENDA
• GDP by Sector
• Employment
• Housing
• Cost of Living
• Commodity Prices
• Blog – Middle Class
• Poverty and Canada
• Taxing the Wealthiest
• Climate Change and the Environment
• Small Businesses
• Trade
• Summary

4. GDP ANALYSIS BY SECTOR
Source – Stats Canada
Largest Gains
Real Estate $9.5
Public Sector $14
Professional $15.9
Mining $4.8
Largest Losses
AG/Forestry $3.5
Transportation/Retail $5.0
Construction $2.0
Oil and Gas $1.4
Hospitality and Accommodation $3.9
• Does that mean the new normal
• Less growth in the good-producing sector
and more dependents on imports?
• Return to big government
• Less choices when it comes to shopping,
eating out, etc.,
• Era of unaffordable housing and high inflation
• Growing skills gaps in areas like IT,
engineering, and the trades

5. EMPLOYMENT
Source – Stats Canada
Key Gains
Professional Services 147K
Public Admin 89K
Manufacturing 15K
Key Losses
Construction 50K
Accommodation 233K
Other 88K
Transportation 21K
The new normal:
• More and more service sector jobs will become
automated
• Skills gaps consider to be challenges for private and
public sector
• FDI keeps going elsewhere due to higher tax and
regulatory issues

6. HOUSING
• Average house has gone up by 32% since Feb/20
• Lumber has gone up 127% since Feb/20
• Construction employment is down 27K
• Household debt is at all time high
• People are struggling to find affordable housing
• Municipalities have been slow to embrace 3D or modular housing
• There has been lack of urban and rural strategy related to both housing and economic development

7. COST OF LIVING
• Gasoline prices
increase by 21%
• Housing is up 32%
• Carbon tax have not
made things more
affordable
• Cost of lumber has
skyrocketed
• New fuel standard has not come into place - https://toronto.ctvnews.ca/gas-
prices-in-gta-expected-to-reach-an-all-time-high-friday-1.5757071
• New hikes to carbon tax have not worked their way through the system -
https://toronto.ctvnews.ca/gas-prices-in-gta-expected-to-reach-an-all-time-
high-friday-1.5757071
• Liberals new rules on the supply chain could have impact on inflation -
https://twitter.com/R_SPatel/status/1488573143891513344 my source -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/how-to-reshore-supply-chain-and-build-a-
resilient-supply-chain-251040548
• Commodities prices continue to be a risk -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/what-is-next-for-the-natural-resources-sector

8. COMMODITY PRICES
Liberals: You do know that Australia has 13th ranking on EPI as compared to Canada's 20th. Australia has been running
trade surpluses for over 4 years. Canada has only run trade surpluses in 2021.
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/what-is-next-for-the-natural-resources-sector

9. BLOG – MIDDLE CLASS
Summary:
Middle class jobs have grown under Justin Trudeau. The problem is majority of those jobs have been in the
service sector in areas like public sector, professional services, and logistics. Jobs in the goods-producing
sector have trailed the service sector since Trudeau took office. Trudeau policies never were about
developing the natural resources sector in a sustainable way.
Trudeau tax policies have also made things worse for Canadians in terms of after-tax income and the cost of
living.
https://www.fraserinstitute.org/studies/measuring-the-impact-of-federal-personal-income-tax-
changes-on-middle-income-canadian-families-since-2015
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/has-justin-trudeau-and-liberals-made-lives-better-for-the-
middle-class-in-canada

10. POVERTY AND CANADA
@JohnIbbitson
More oversight needs to be done on all social welfare programs to ensure they are helping people but also supporting the
growth of the economy in a sustainable way. https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/should-canada-moved-forward-
with-basic-income
Your article is missing the boat in many areas!
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-its-time-for-ottawa-to-seriously-study-how-a-guaranteed-basic-
income/
Opinions
Pandemic supports are failing Canada’s poorest
'Pandemic-related payments to people living in deep poverty paled in comparison to the Canada Emergency
Response Benefit and the Canada Recovery Benefit, which were available to Canadians with jobs.
Source - https://ipolitics.ca/2022/01/17/pandemic-supports-are-failing-canadas-poorest/

11. TAXES THE WEALTHIEST
Blog – Tax Fairness and Wealth Distribution – Canada and the World -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/wealth-distribution-and-income-tax-fairness
Summary:
I am all for tax fairness to ensure loopholes are closed for the wealthy. The problem for the past many years
is if all levels of government are not addressing programs that will better support those that need the support.
Too much is being written and said about UBI to fix income gaps. The real issues come back to
opportunities for people to move to better-paying jobs. The focus all levels of government should be
focusing on growing the economy in a sustainable way while protecting the environment.
Housing and its affordability must be addressed as part of wealth distribution. Housing costs have outpriced
many people.
Poverty continues to be an issue that will not be addressed by one-off programs like UBI but through many
policies

12. ENVIRONMENT AND CLIMATE CHANGE
I have written many presentations and blogs on the circular and green economies. My biggest frustration is that
policy focus has been to narrow in areas of carbon tax and more regulations. The main drivers of environment are
land, water, forest management, air quality, and waste management. Technology can play a role with protecting
the environment without taxing and overregulating the economy to death. We need to protect the environment
while growing an inclusive economy.
I believe more focus should be on the tax act, R&D, strategic partnerships, standardization of ESG reporting, risk,
and crisis management, reforming the WTO, and better urban and rural planning. Countries that are highest
polluters should be forced to change their ways!
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/protecting-the-environment-through-proper-policies-relate-to-
green-and-circular-economy
Blog - The climate crisis demands courage not optimism
The necessary changes to our lives and economy won’t happen automatically by manufacturers saving
money through improvements in energy efficiency.
https://www.canadianmanufacturing.com/features/the-climate-crisis-demands-courage-not-optimism/
We need to look at angles when it comes to protecting the environment -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/protecting-the-environment-through-proper-policies-
relate-to-green-and-circular-economy
https://www.cp24.com/news/attitude-on-carbon-tax-rebate-defined-by-politics-not-facts-survey-
suggests-1.5753281
It was never about the environment including mitigating climate change, but the Agenda 2030.
Neither @JonathanWNV nor @s_guilbeault will ever discuss alternative solutions that support
the circular and green economy!
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/protecting-the-environment-through-proper-policies-
relate-to-green-and-circular-economy

13. SMALL BUSINESSES
Summary:
The pandemic has hammered small to medium-size businesses due to restrictions imposed on their operations.
More and more small businesses will move to the digital model as part of managing their customers and supply
chain.
Automation, data and AI, and security will be key areas of focus for small-medium businesses as they grow their
business but also mitigate against geopolitical threats.
ESG reporting will also become a requirement as consumers will want to know the ESG footprint for a small
business as part of making their buying decisions.
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/dawn-of-a-new-era-for-smallto-medium-size-public-and-private-
sectors-entities-250930548

14. TRADE
Summary:
Canada hit the highest trade surplus in years led by energy, metals, lumber, etc. Australia has been running
trade surpluses for many years - https://www.ampcapital.com/au/en/insights-
hub/articles/2022/january/econosights-impacts-to-australia-from-chinese-trade-restriction
Canada lost a trade ruling to USA on dairy subsidization
Canada is struggling to get the USA to change their stance on electrical vehicles and softwood lumber.
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/merchandise-tradecanada-november-2021

15. FOREIGN AFFAIRS AND POLICIES
Blog – Foreign Affairs, Policies and Trade – Is Canada back?
Canada reputation has been impacted since election of Justin Trudeau. Many world leaders do not want to
deal with Trudeau and his government - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/foreign-affairs-and-
policies-is-canada-back-250969830

16. SUMMARY
• The economy based on GDP, trade, and employment has recovered for Canada
• The problem is the structure of the economy and labor market is different since the pandemic first started in 2020.
Public sector jobs continue to grow at a faster pace than the private sector
• Both the private and public sector are looking at more business automation. Commerce continues to grow in
Canada. Canada trails other countries when it comes to % of retail sales that is driven by eCommerce - Retail and
Distribution https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/transportation-sector-analysis-and-commentary-september-2021 or
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/retail-sales-usa-july-2021
• More need to be done to protect the environment while growing the economy in a sustainable way -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/what-is-next-for-the-global-economy-january-28-2022
• Canada is still struggling with competitive issues that are impacting areas like closing the skills gaps, R&D and
capital spending - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/how-to-improve-canada-global-competitiveness-250054392