Blog – GDP – Canada – May 2023 Summary: Canadian economic momentum decelerated in the second quarter after an unexpectedly strong start to the year. Preliminary data suggest gross domestic product decreased 0.2% in June, the first contraction this year, led lower by the wholesale and manufacturing sectors, Statistics Canada reported Friday in Ottawa. That followed a 0.3% expansion in May, matching the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists. Canadian bond yields ticked higher; the loonie initially rose, then gave back those gains. Overall, the monthly gains — including April’s 0.1% boost — point to annualized growth of 1% in the second quarter. Although it will likely be revised, that’s slower than the 1.5% pace projected by the Bank of Canada earlier this month, and much weaker than the 3.1% growth in the first three months of 2023. “We’re starting to see some evidence that almost 500 basis of points of tightening, compressed in a very short window of time, is starting to have an impact on the economy more broadly,” Robert Kavcic, a senior economist at Bank of Montreal, said on BNN Bloomberg Television. “We’re seeing it in areas like housing, we’re seeing it areas like consumer spending, where spending volumes at the retail level have really flattened out.” Source: https://www.forexlive.com/news/canada-gdp-for-may-03-versus-03-expected-20230728/ or https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/canada-growth-slows-to-1-in-second-quarter-gdp-shrank-in-june-1.1951959 Other sources and Links Commodities – https://www.bqprime.com/markets/waning-us-recession-fears-not-the-only-factor-driving-commodity-surge-says-gavekal Forestry - https://www.lesprom.com/en/news/Canadian_ministers_express_strong_disagreement_with_U_S_decision_on_softwood_lumber_duties_108828/ Natural Gas - https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2023/07/28/natural-gas-heat-waves-climate/ Housing - https://dailyhive.com/canada/experts-say-canada-less-affordable-td Core Inflation - https://www.movesmartly.com/articles/why-canadian-inflation-is-about-to-move-higher Global GDP = https://www.aigroup.com.au/resourcecentre/research-economics/economics-intelligence/2023/july-global-economic-forecasts/ ESG - https://www.ft.com/content/7a98cba4-2977-40d6-bf99-dea74d479607 Geopolitical - https://worldview.stratfor.com/ Food and AG - https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/jul/28/british-crop-yields-rise-despite-cut-in-fertiliser-use-research-finds or https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2023-07-28/Reasons-why-food-inflation-isn-t-going-away.html Supply Chain - https://www.autoserviceworld.com/supply-chain-labour-disruptions-way-up-this-year/ Manufacturing - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/manufacturing-sector-canada-july-2023pptx Oil - https://www.marketscreener.com/news/latest/Oil-prices-slip-on-demand-concerns-remain-on-track-for-weekly-gain--44446975/

1. CANADA GDP ANALYSIS –
APRIL 2023
Paul Young CPA
CGA
Senior Customer
Success Manager
– Data and AI
July 28, 2023

2. Paul Young – Bio
Senior Customer Success
Manager – Data and AAI
• CPA, CGA (1996)
• Academia (PF1, FA4, FN2, MU1. and MS2)
• SME – Customer Success Management
• SME – Risk Management
• SME – Sustainable and ESG Policy
Development and Reporting
• SME – Close, Consolidate and Reporting
• SME – Public Policy
• SME – Emerging Technology
• SME – Business Process Change
• SME – Financial Solutions
• SME – Macro/Micro Indicators
• SME – Supply Chain Management
• SME – Data, AI, Security, and Platform
• SME – Internal Controls and Auditing
Contact information email: Paul_Young_CGA@outlook.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/paul-young-055632b/
SlideShare - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga
Twitter: https://twitter.com/paulyoungcpa
Youtube - https://www.youtube.com/user/youngercga1968/videos

3. Agenda
• G20 GDP Growth
• G7 GDP Growth
• GDP Analysis – Canada
• GDP Analysis – Canada vs Australia
7/28/2023 3

4. G20 GDP Growth
7/28/2023 4

5. Australia, USA and Canada – GDP / Inflation
7/28/2023 5

6. GDP Analysis
Source – Stats Canada
7/28/2023 6

7. GDP Analysis
Source – Stats Canada
7/28/2023 7

8. GDP Analysis
Source – Stats Canada
7/28/2023 8

9. GDP Analysis
Source – Stats Canada
7/28/2023 9

10. Addressing slow growth
• Streamlining regulations as part of getting goods out of the ground to market
• Making key infrastructure capital expenditure in areas like ports, roads, and bridges.
• Addressing issues with taxation system as part of ensuring Canada has competitive tax
system with its peers around the world
• Supporting policies that will improve productivity like changes to capital cost allowance or
encouraging R&D spending on innovation or closing the skills gap as part of addressing
labor shortages.
• Streamlining government including more digital adoption
• Addressing systemic issues with affordable housing like cost/availability of land, cost of
raw materials and labor, adopting new technology like 3D printing of housing, etc.
• Promoting policies that encourage FDI inflow and outflow. The key is focusing on policies
that will keep Canada’s capital market competitive with other jurisdiction.
• Addressing the size of government through digital adoption along with value for money
and performance audits.
7/28/2023 10

11. Summary
• Canada GDP continues to face many challenges
7/28/2023 11
Blog – GDP – Canada – May 2023
Summary:
Canadian economic momentum decelerated in the second quarter after an unexpectedly strong
start to the year.
Preliminary data suggest gross domestic product decreased 0.2% in June, the first contraction
this year, led lower by the wholesale and manufacturing sectors, Statistics Canada reported
Friday in Ottawa.
That followed a 0.3% expansion in May, matching the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey
of economists. Canadian bond yields ticked higher; the loonie initially rose, then gave back those
gains.
Overall, the monthly gains — including April’s 0.1% boost — point to annualized growth of 1%
in the second quarter. Although it will likely be revised, that’s slower than the 1.5% pace
projected by the Bank of Canada earlier this month, and much weaker than the 3.1% growth in
the first three months of 2023.
“We’re starting to see some evidence that almost 500 basis of points of tightening, compressed in
a very short window of time, is starting to have an impact on the economy more broadly,” Robert
Kavcic, a senior economist at Bank of Montreal, said on BNN Bloomberg Television. “We’re
seeing it in areas like housing, we’re seeing it areas like consumer spending, where spending
volumes at the retail level have really flattened out.”
Source: https://www.forexlive.com/news/canada-gdp-for-may-03-versus-03-expected-20230728/ or
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/canada-growth-slows-to-1-in-second-quarter-gdp-shrank-in-june-
1.1951959
Other sources and Links
Commodities – https://www.bqprime.com/markets/waning-us-recession-fears-not-the-only-factor-
driving-commodity-surge-says-gavekal
Forestry -
https://www.lesprom.com/en/news/Canadian_ministers_express_strong_disagreement_with_U_S_deci
sion_on_softwood_lumber_duties_108828/