This presentation will provide facts on fiscal management cycle for Canada.

1. 2019 ELECTION – FISCAL
MANAGEMENT – LPC VS CPC
– AUGUST 2019
BY: PAUL YOUNG, CPA, CGA
DATE: AUGUST 23. 2019

2. PAUL YOUNG - BIO
• CPA, CGA
• Financial Solutions
• SME – Risk Management
• SME – Close, Consolidate and Reporting
• SME – Public Policy
• SME – Financial Solutions
• SME – Supply Chain Management
Contact information:
Paul_Young_CGA@Hotmail.com

3. INTRODUCTI
ON
• This presentation looks at deficit
and debt management by Trudeau
and the Liberals. The liberals ran a
campaign in 2015 on modest
deficits. It is now 2018-2019 as
such the deficit is now nearly 19B or
about 3x times higher.
• Many factors go into fiscal
management cycle including
growth, key focus points,
infrastructure, etc.
• GDP per capita has fallen under
Trudeau

4. AGENDA
• Harper on Trudeau’s deficits
• Annual Financial Statements
• Annual Financial Statements 2006 to Present
• % change in GDP, Taxation and Spending (year
over year)
• YTD Nov/15 Surplus (Fiscal Monitor)
• Fiscal Monitor / February 2019
• Various blogs on deficits
• Paul Martin Austerity
• Ralph Goodale vs Stephen Harper
• Changes to Fiscal Monitor
• What’s is next

5. HARPER AND
TRUDEAU
(SMALL
DEFICITS)
• http://www.torontosun.com
/2016/11/02/harper-
right-about-trudeaus-
deficits

6. STATEMENT
OF
OPERATIONS
• Government of Canada

7. STATEMENT OF OPERATIONS
SOURCE – THE GOVERNMENT OF CANADA

8. GDP AND GOVERNMENT
SOURCE – SCOTIABANK, RBC AND GOVERNMENT OF CANADA

9. BUDGET SURPLUS / NOVEMBER
2015
GOVERNMENT OF CANADA

10. FY – 2015 TO 2016
GOVERNMENT OF CANADA

11. FISCAL MONITOR / FISCAL UPDATE /
PROJECTION
https://www.canadianmanufacturing.com/financing/trudeau-liberals-link-reckless-ontario-budget-with-scheers-conservatives-230955/
@PattyHajdu @JustinTrudeau
Your govt has structural deficit of $18.5B and you think that is ok, right? Yet your economic growth post 2009 recession on average is 2.0%. Harper had
GDP growth of 2.3% on average!
Ontario is heading down the right path when it comes to eliminating its deficit. It is too bad that @fordnation does not have a partner in Ottawa. Let’s
hope 2019 will see the end of Trudeau as the PM!
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/ontario-economic-and-fiscal-mess

12. TRUDEAU / CPC DEFICIT
• http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/trudeau-budget-deficit-sitting-ending-
press-conference-1.4180713
CBC News – June 27, 2017

13. REFUGEE / COST – UNBUDGETED - $365M
• http://www.rcinet.ca/en/2016/11/22/bringing-25000-syrian-refugees-to-
canada-cost-385m/
The Conservatives pledge that if re-elected, they will allow a further 10,000
Syrians in over the next four years, continuing a focus on those being
persecuted because of religion. (This works out to be 2,500 as compare to
liberals plan of 25,000. The budget never reflected 22,500 new refugees.

14. JUSTIN TRUDEAU SPENDING
• http://www.torontosun.com/2017/05/11/trudeau-has-second-highest-
per-person-spending-since-1870
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is leading one of the the costliest governments since 1870,
according to a study by the Fraser Institute released Thursday.
The study looks at per-person spending by all of the prime ministers, year over year, adjusted
for 2017 dollars. According to its data, the Liberal prime minister's budget for 2017 amounts to
the second highest year for spending, with a projected $8,337 per-person spending, putting it
just $38 shy of Stephen Harper's 2009 Conservative government, which was dealing with a
recession.
Since taking office in 2015, Trudeau has also increased per-person spending at an average of
5.2% a year, which is far higher than Harper's, whose spending, from 2006 to 2015, increased
at an average of 1.3% per year. This even eclipses that of his late father, Pierre Elliott Trudeau,
the Liberal prime minister from 1968-1978 and 1980-1984, whose average spending increase
was 4.2% per year.

15. TRUDEAU ON DEFICITS
• https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=py1t3tGqCuk or http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-election-2015-
stephen-harper-jobs-analysis-1.3254371 http://www.nationalobserver.com/2015/05/21/news/harper-worst-
prime-minister-economic-growth-great-depression-trudeau
OTTAWA — "Prime Minister Harper has the worst record of any prime
minister on economic growth since R. B. Bennett in the depths of the Great
Depression." — Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau, Friday, May 15, 2015.
Though Justin Trudeau said it as recently as last week, the Liberals have
been claiming since at least 2013 that Canada's economic growth under the
Harper-led Conservative government has been the worst since the 1930s.

16. BLOG #1 – DEFICIT
Here are some factors from the government documents
that for some reason you did not read
1. 2009-2010 Budget -
http://www.budget.gc.ca/2009/pdf/budget-
planbugetaire-eng.pdf - page 24 discusses the
automotive loans - Offering short-term repayable loans
to the automotive sector in collaboration with the
Ontario and U.S. governments or page 82 The
Government, through EDC, has contributed almost $3
billion in short-term loans to support the automotive
industry in Canada.
2. GM file for bankruptcy protection as it restructured its
business - http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/car-giant-
gm-files-for-bankruptcy-protection-1.812398
3. Chrysler also filed for bankruptcy protection -
http://www.forbes.com/2009/05/06/chrysler-gm-fiat-
bankruptcy-opinions-columnists-nouriel-roubini.html
4. Ford never asked for bailout

17. BLOG #2 – DEFICIT What is the value the government recorded those shares on the financial
Statements?
http://www.thecanadianpress.com/english/online/OnlineFullStory.aspx?file
name=DOR-MNN-
CP.ecd551301cb345bf829a8baced24da04.CPKEY2008111300&newsitemid=
32623847&languageid=1
1. The government purchased the shares – “Late Thursday, a finance
official said the shares were initially booked at a value of
$15.31 per share.:
2. The government sold the shares for what price?
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-
06/canada-to-sell-final-73-4-million-shares-of-gm-from-
bailout. It seems there was gain on selling the sales.
3. Government records revenue and expenses as such if the
government is going to lose money on share offering then
that would have meant a higher deficit. The government
made money off the share value.
4. Chrysler paid back the loans -
http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/chrysler-nears-7-5b-bailout-
payback-1.1026704
5. GM - http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/windsor/ottawa-doesn-t-regret-
gm-bailout-1.880819

18. BLOG #3 - DEFICIT

19. BLOG #3

20. BLOG #3 –
DEFICIT
• TWEET: GDP and Deficit
• https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=31WB8O_5lc4
•
• Harper and finances - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4xGM6_RQIsw
•
• Opposition -
•
• This video is from earlier in the year, but shows Trudeau blaming Harper. The
funny thing nothing was mentioned about the global recession. Liberals love to
hide that information from view.
•
• GDP growth rate for 2016 and 2017 is 2.2% which is on par with the past 15+
years. If you ignored the recession then GDP would be 2.2% under Harper
which is like what Trudeau has achieved since taking office.
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/truth-gdp-canada-december-2017
or https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/fiscal-management-
conservative-party-of-canada-pm-harper or
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/2018-fiscal-management-plan-
canada-february-2018

21. BLOG #4 – GM SALE
Source – Government of Canada
• GM sales happen in 2014-2015 (April 2014 to March
• From April 2015 to November 2015 there was $1B de

22. NO BALANCE BUDGET UNTIL 2040
Source - https://globalnews.ca/news/4787265/federal-budget-balance-
The federal budget won’t be balanced until at least 2040,
the Finance Department said Friday, providing fresh figures
for parties looking to position themselves with voters as
the best stewards of the public purse.
Federal officials estimate it will take another 22 years to get
a balanced budget – five years earlier than the Liberal
government predicted last year – if there are no major
economic shocks or new government spending.

23. TRUDEAU / DEFICITS
• Trudeau is only looking at one ration (Debt
to GDP) and not other ratios
• Based on both the PBO and Finance Dept
the budget will not be balance for 22 years.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/finance-
department-budget-balance-projection-
1.4956649
• Canada has a structural deficit which
Trudeau does not seem to grasp
• Canada economic growth is on par with the
past 17+ years -
https://www.scotiabank.com/ca/en/about/
global-economics/scotiabank-forecast-
tables.html
• Liberals deficits are good but CPC deficits
are bad, right?
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/
cpc-fiscal-and-economic-analysis-pm-
harper-years

24. GDP GROWTH
SOURCE - OECD

25. LIBERALS
AND SLOW
GROWTH
• http://www.cbc.ca/news/po
litics/finance-liberals-
economy-budget-
morneau-consultations-
jobs-1.3883770

26. BLOG –
DEFICIT
AND DEBT
• Canada has structural deficit now. I did work on
the budget and it is full of holes.
• Hey Don, why do you never asked Morneau,
Trudeau or others why $59B in deficits is only
supporting 2.1% GDP growth. Harper had 2.3%
GDP growth after the recession.
• https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/gdp
-canada-real-truth-march-2018 or
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/step
hen-harper-and-cpc-fiscal-record-june-2018

27. PAUL MARTIN / DEFICIT MANAGEMENT
• This provides a great context on how Martin was able to slay the deficit and reduced the debt! The LPC will never say
that hardship was felt by cuts to services and/or raiding of funds or the facts spending was delayed to future periods
(i.e. transfers to the provinces or infrastructure):
http://www.canadahistory.com/sections/eras/moderncanada/budget_surplus.htm or
https://www.policyalternatives.ca/newsroom/news-releases/martins-economic-record-marked-increased-income-
inequality-no-real-wage-gains
• Or
• BTW: Is JT’s Advertisement not talking about the cost of living or stagnation with wages? So, if Harper is to blame then
so should Martin, right? Was Martin not LPC member?
• Liberal Party of Canada never once commented on the above posts, but say Martin slay the deficit/debt! It is not just
about the overall result, but what happen down the road when Mr. Harper took office as part of restoring dedicated
funding to the provinces and/or infrastructure and the increasing of direct program spending:
http://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/canada-deficit or http://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/municipalities-
canada or http://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/provincial-transfers-and-program-spending. Or
https://www.policyalternatives.ca/sites/default/files/uploads/publications/National_Office_Pubs/hellandhighwater.pd
Source -
https://www.policyalternatives.ca/public
ations/monitor/beware-canadian-
austerity-model
Paul Martin Deficit Reduction Plan

28. BLOC, NDP
AND
LIBERALS
SIGNED
AGREEMENT
• “Dion, who previously announced he would
step down as Liberal leader, also pledged
he would hand over "a strong government
for a stronger Canada" to his Liberal
successor on May 2. I am honoured to do
that," Dion said. Layton said the
accord's proposed multibillion-dollar
stimulus package for the troubled
economy, which includes support for the
auto and forestry sectors, is "prompt,
prudent, competent and, most important,
effective.“ This Parliament has failed to act,
and it falls on us to act," Layton said.
”Source -
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/liberals-
ndp-bloc-sign-deal-on-proposed-coalition-

29. CBC ANALYSIS / JUNE 2019
Source - https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/trudeau-taxes-harper-budget-1.5164976?fbclid=IwAR3AOpSE1KQaLVIRlstaR3jUCn-
tEYzPiEwecd8DkVvbJHfWZP4visVq6_A
Is Trudeau a 'tax-and-spend' Liberal? The numbers say no
• Trudeau has increase overall spending from year over year average was 6.7% as
compare to Harper’s 3.8%
• Trudeau took $1B surplus and turned it into $18B deficit
• Trudeau decided to slash the AG performance management audits, why?
• Trudeau has a made a mess of every file including immigration -
https://torontosun.com/news/national/illegal-border-processing-costs-alone-to-
exceed-1-billion-pbo-report
• Trudeau’s policies are more about votes than sound policies. The tax cut did little
when you factor in Trudeau eliminated income tax splitting, boutique tax credits and
hiked CPP - https://www.thechronicleherald.ca/news/canada/for-millennials-in-
canada-the-middle-class-dream-slips-a-little-further-away-oecd-300708/ or
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/2019-election-middle-class-canada-june-
2019
• Trudeau’s policies have made Canada less competitive -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/2019-election-canada-and-global-
competitiveness-may-2019
• You cannot not just look at GDP ratios. You also need to look at outcomes along with
expense growth year over year in relation to Taxation and GDP growth -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/2019-election-gdp-and-economy-canada
• Trudeau’s policies have support only 10% increase in goods producing sector jobs.
Goods producing sector jobs pay on average 40% more than service sector jobs. -

30. GOODALE VS
HARPER
• Trudeau’s economic and fiscal
scorecard -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoun
gcga/justin-trudeau-scorecard-
2015-to-2019-august-2019
• Trudeau’s Employment Analysis -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoun
gcga/2019-election-job-quality-and-
employment-canada-june-2019
• Trudeau – Affordable Housing -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoun
gcga/2019-election-housing-
affordability-canada-june-2019
• Trudeau / Trade -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoun
gcga/2019-election-global-trade-
and-wto-trade-fairness-canada-
august-2019
• Fiscal Management Cycle -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoun
gcga/2019-election-fiscal-
management-canada-june-2019

31. FISCAL MONITOR
Source - https://www.fin.gc.ca/pub/fm-rf-index-eng.asp
• The fiscal monitor gives insight to how the Government Canada on the government taxation and spen
March 2018 – Fiscal Monitor
April 2018 – Fiscal Monitor
As of April 2018 the Liberals no longer
report direct program spending by key
departments

32. GDP PER CAPITA

33. WHAT’S
NEXT
• Next government will need to define the path back to
balance budget
• Next government will need to undertake more operational
and performance audits -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/2019-
election-public-sector-efficiency-canada-july-2019
• Next government should provide more details with the
fiscal update including high-level dept spending as well
as key outcome stats.
• Next government needs to focus on automation as well as
reforming the pension and compensation for all
government employees.
• Next government needs to look at how best to support
economy, i.e. tax and regulations reforms
• Next government needs to eliminate unnecessary
departments like infrastructure bank