2016 Market and Economic Outlook for Canada
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Economic and market outlook for 2016
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2016 Market and Economic Outlook for Canada
- 1. 2016 Canadian Economy Outlook By: Paul Young, CPA, CGA
- 2. GDP by major area
- 3. Exports
- 4. Retail Sales
- 5. Retail Sales issues • Taxation • New government policie • Carbon Taxation • Personal Income Taxation (ORPP, personal taxation rate changes, etc) • Corporate Taxation • Canadian Dollar • Lower Canadian dollar will drive up retail prices • eCommerce • On-line business is expected to grow to 20% from 10% by 2020.
- 6. Factors that will drive exports • Low Canadian dollar • Dollar could raise from $0.68 to $0.75 range for 2016 • China Economy • Chinese economy is growing at 6% rate. There are concerns that Chinese economy is growing slower than 6% rate • US economy • Forecasted to grow at 2.5% to 2.7% range • Capacity • Canada exports are 25% lower due capacity issues • Trade Investment Deals • Canada has tentatively signed TPP as well as other deals in play. The new government may slow down trade deals
- 7. Economic issues • Automotive • North American Automotive sales projected to hit 17.5M units in 2015. There could be claw back in 2016 • Housing starts • USA is forecasted to have 1.336M new housing starts in 2016 • There are issues as the softwood lumber deal is about to expired • Transportation equipment • There was record year for transportation equipment • Many truck manufacturers have been scaling back production as new orders have are being curtailed in 2016 • Oil production • Oil Prices are schedule to go back up to $50.00/barrel. There is still excess capacity which has causing capital investment to be curtailed. • Climate change agenda • Many countries have signed on to climate change. New climate change policies could impact manufacturing/mining/oil operations with more costly regulation/
- 8. Upsides areas of the economy • Uranium • More and more countries are looking at upgrading or building new nuclear ractors • Lithium • Electrical cars as other areas will drive the lithium battery market • Food Processing • Counties are struggling to feed their own growing population. • Water Treatment • Clean water is becoming very scarce • Infrastructure • Many countries are looking at doing more spending on infrastructure
Editor's Notes
- Oil Price
- http://www.statcan.gc.ca/tables-tableaux/sum-som/l01/cst01/trad15a-eng.htm