Mobilesquared reveals latest RCS business messaging market forecasts, at Mobile World Congress Barcelona, 2019. Includes forecasts to 2023 for consumer engagement frequency by month, business messaging revenues, top 10 mobile operators by business messaging revenues, impact of WhatsApp on mobile operators and more.

1. Why
the
opportunity
for
RCS
is
now
24
February
2019
Gavin
Pa>erson
Chief
Data
Analyst,
Mobilesquared
gavin@mobilesquared.co.uk
@Mobilesquared

2. About
Mobilesquared
Leading
analysts
in
Business
Messaging
We
provide
definiOve
data
and
expert
insight
We
work
with
the
leading
mobile
and
tech
companies
across
the
mobile
ecosystem,
from
regulators,
mobile
operators,
service
providers,
brands,
agencies,
start-­‐ups
…
to
understand
mobile
and
engagement.
We
do
this
through
extensive
research,
deep
analysis
based
on
years
of
experience,
and
forecas>ng
market
opportuni>es
based
on
ac>onable
numbers.
Accurate
data.
No
hype.
www.mobilesquared.co.uk
@Mobilesquared

3. @Mobilesquared
Messaging
user
landscape
P2P
MESSAGING
APPS
1
bil
2
bil
3
bil
4
bil
1.2
bil
1.5
bil
4
bil
1.1
bil
1
bil
0.8
bil
0.3
bil
0.2
bil
USERS
OTT
pressure
mounOng
but
mobile
operators
sOll
have
greatest
reach
0.2
bil

4. TOTAL
DEVICES
Mobile
operator
messaging
perspecOve
MESSAGING
POTENTIAL
JAN
2019
1
bil
2
bil
3
bil
4
bil
4
bil
M
O
B
I
L
E
O
P
E
R
A
T
O
R
M
E
S
S
A
G
I
N
G
R
C
S
MESSAGING
POTENTIAL
USERS
RCS
A
N
D
R
O
I
D
S
M
A
R
T
P
H
O
N
E
S
A
B
C
3.5
bil
2.8
bil
0.9
bil
0.7
bil

5. RCS
business
messaging
landscape
RCS
GROWTH
P2P
/
A2P
USERS,
2018
-­‐
2023
1
bil
2
bil
3
bil
P2P
TIME
RCS
RCS
RCS
P2P
MAUs
RCS
$
RCS
$
RCS
$
22%
POTENTIAL
RCS
MAUs
1%
94%
85%
%
OF
TOTAL
POTENTIAL
P2P
A2P
USERS

6. RCS
A2P
breakdown
NATIVE
vs
DOWNLOADABLES
-­‐
500,000,000
1,000,000,000
1,500,000,000
2,000,000,000
2,500,000,000
3,000,000,000
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
The
dominance
of
na>ve
A2P
na>ve
A2P
download
Total
RCS
A2P
8.3%
40.2%
56.1%
76.8%
87.5%
94.2%
MaaP
(A2P/UP2.0)
launches
as
%
of
P2P
RCS
rollouts
@Mobilesquared

7. Business
messaging
spend
(US$)
MESSAGING
APPS
END
2018,
ARPU
5
bil
10
bil
15
bil
20
bil
SMS
ARPU
US$3.61
Mobile
operators
dominate
business
messaging
revenues
OTT
ARPU
?
US$17.02

8. A
world
without
RCS
Total
A2P
SMS
SPEND
(US$)
@Mobilesquared
-­‐
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
Billions
Total
A2P
SMS
spend
Total
US$28.7

9. Mobile
operator
business
messaging
evoluOon
The
impact
of
RCS
(US$)
-­‐
5
10
15
20
25
30
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
Billions
@Mobilesquared
US$25.3

10. Total
business
messaging
(SMS
+
RCS)
INCOME
(US$)
-­‐
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
Billions
Total
A2P
SMS
spend
RCS
@Mobilesquared
US$41.4

11. -­‐
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
Billions
Total
A2P
SMS
spend
RCS
In-­‐network
RCS
model
Mobile
operator
+
aggregator
income
@Mobilesquared
No
revenue
share,
mobile
operator
controlled
ecosystem
keeps
100%,
with
aggregator
partner/s
selling
to
brands/enterprise

12. Cloud
hosted
partner
RCS
model
Mobile
operator
+
aggregator
+
cloud
host
partner
income
-­‐
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
Billions
Total
A2P
SMS
spend
RCS
MNO
share
Cloud
hosted
partner
@Mobilesquared
Revenue
share
based
on
cloud
host
partner
receiving
40%
of
revenues
from
session/campaign
based
spend,
with
aggregator
partner/s
selling
to
brands/enterprise

13. OTT
cloud
hosted
partner
RCS
model
Mobile
operator
+
cloud
host
partner
income
-­‐
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
Billions
Total
A2P
SMS
spend
RCS
MNO
share
OTT
Cloud
hosted
partner
@Mobilesquared
Revenue
share
based
on
cloud
host
partner
receiving
60%
of
revenues
from
session/campaign
based
spend,
which
includes
selling
to
brands/enterprise

14. Top
10
RCS
business
messaging
rev
gen
mobile
operators
in
2023
@Mobilesquared
The
top
10
mobile
operators
/
groups
will
account
for
45%
of
RBM
income
by
2023

15. SMS
/
RCS
ARPU
comparison
(US$)
-­‐
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
Billions
Total
A2P
SMS
spend
RCS
US$3.61
1
2
3
4
5
6
US$3.60
SMS
RCS
–
P2A
ACTIVITY
ARPU
(US$)
@Mobilesquared

16. AlternaOve
business
models
ADVERTISING
&
SEARCH
SCENARIOS
@Mobilesquared
0.82
3.18
5.98
8.45
10.65
11.61
1.19
4.62
8.69
12.28
15.47
16.87
1.99
7.69
14.48
20.46
25.79
28.11
-­‐
5
10
15
20
25
30
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
Billions
Adver>sing
Scenario
1
Scenario
2
Scenario
3
Forecasts
based
on:
AdverOsing
Scenario
1:
Based
on
Kakao
Talk’s
average
ad
spend
per
user
(US$4.13)
applied
to
total
P2P
RCS
users.
Scenario
2
&
3
based
on
average
ad
spend
of
US$6
&
US$10
respec>vely.
Search
Based
on
5%
of
the
total
average
spend
on
mobile
search
per
user
in
the
USA,
applied
to
total
RCS
A2P
user
base.
-­‐
2
4
6
8
10
12
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
Billions
Search
0.04
10.7
9.1
6.7
3.9
1.3
Nb
Mobilesquared’s
actual
forecasts
on
adver5sing
&
search
will
be
published
in
2H
2019

17. RCS
engagement
levels
PER
MONTH
By
2023
consumers
will
be
engaging
with
brands
via
RCS
on
an
almost
daily
basis
2019
2.92
2023
29.56
@Mobilesquared

18. RCS
engagement
touchpoints
A2P
/
P2A
ACTIVITY
2023,
PER
MONTH
A2P
acOvity
PER
EVENT
9.4
@Mobilesquared
P2A
acOvity
PER
EVENT
6.1
CHAT
3.7
CHAT
10.4

19. Threat
of
WhatsApp
to
mobile
operators
THE
JUGGERNAUT
HAS
DEPARTED
-­‐
2
4
6
8
10
12
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
Billions
WhatsApp
for
Business
revenues
(US$)
Data
to
emphasise
WhatsApp
threat
only!
Forecasts
based
on:
3
million
registered
businesses
(end
2018)
growing
at
20%
year-­‐on-­‐year
during
forecast
period
MaB
(Monthly
ac>ve
Business)
=
33%
per
year.
Average
sized
database
of
2,500
year-­‐on-­‐year.
Avg
message
cost
$0.03472,
based
on
avg
cost
in
launch
markets,
applied
throughout.
In
this
scenario
WhatsApp
for
Business
will:
enjoy
spend
18
Omes
higher
than
RCS
by
the
end
of
2019.
Will
generate
a
higher
ARPU
than
SMS
in
2021.
CumulaOve
spend
of
$30
billion
on
WhatsApp
during
forecast
period.
Nb
Mobilesquared’s
actual
forecasts
on
WhatsApp
for
Business
will
be
published
in
September
2019
7.2
5
3.5
2.4
1.7
0.4

20. The
real
RCS
opportunity
TIME
TO
DELIVER
Market
worth
£16.2
billion
in
2023
(Based
on
messaging
&
chat)
Market
potenOally
£38.5
billion
in
2023*
(Based
on
messaging,
chat,
adverOsing
(scenario
1)
&
search)
*Mobilesquared’s
actual
forecasts
on
adver5sing
&
search
will
be
published
in
2H
2019

21. Why
make
Mobilesquared
your
business
messaging
partner
RCS
forecasts
covering
P2P/A2P
launches,
P2P/A2P
users,
Traffic,
Income
Split
by
Mobile
operator,
Country,
Region
&
OS.
Databook
forecasts
updated
quarterly
Analyst
Insight
Reports
quarterly
RCS
MAU
tracker
(splipng
out
UP
1.0/UP2.0)
for
every
live
RCS
market
Upcoming
RCS
research
on
impact
of
digital
&
search
models
on
total
income
We
are
business
messaging
specialists
published
in
2009:
• A2P
SMS
3.0
(May)
• WhatsApp
for
Business
(September)
• Apple’s
ABC
(November)
databooks@mobilesquared.co.uk
+44
(0)
118
2149
777
/
+44
(0)
7976
057
052
www.mobilesquared.co.uk/about-­‐databooks/
CONTACT