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Smart GOVs Swaying Public Opinion:
Is investigative journalism becoming part of
the infotainment?
2021 Nasri Messarra (http://nasri.messarra.com) 1
‫الذكية‬ ‫السياسية‬ ‫المنظومات‬
:
‫للترفيه؟‬ ‫سلعة‬ ‫االستقصائية‬ ‫الصحافة‬ ‫اصبحت‬ ‫هل‬
The Shapes of Discussion Analysis
2021 Nasri Messarra (http://nasri.messarra.com) 2
Political Discussions
2021 Nasri Messarra (http://nasri.messarra.com) 3
Polarized:
- Dichotomy: with / against – left / right…
- Strong and non-negotiable positions
- High risk of conflict
- Political debate
Community Clusters:
- Different ideas, different priorities
- Social / Emotional debate
Garbage Crisis 2015-2016
Analysis of 200,000+ interactions on Twitter – Sep.8, 2015 to Feb. 2, 2016
Civil society groups
Community Clusters
Two major groups: IranianAffairs and KSA24
Polarized crowds
2021 Nasri Messarra (http://nasri.messarra.com) 4
A health/societal problem becomes a political issue, paralyzing street/civil society action
Resignation of PM Saad Hariri - Nov. 4, 2017
2021 Nasri Messarra (http://nasri.messarra.com) 5
A serious political issue becomes a joke
2021 Nasri Messarra (http://nasri.messarra.com) 6
Switching
to
Emotions
Resignation of Hariri Hashtag
Community Clusters (analysis of 10,149 interactions)
Nov. 4, 2017 – 11:00 Nov. 6, 2017 – 00:00
Sharing
Emotions
How Serious is Serious?
2021 Nasri Messarra (http://nasri.messarra.com) 7
1. A judge is ignoring the public prosecutor order
2. A judge is being supported openly and physically by
supporters of a political party
3. A judge is taking investigation in her own hands,
without judicial police support
4. Mecattaf is a witness, not a criminal. And, in any case
innocent until proven guilty.
Categorization of Tweets
2021 Nasri Messarra (http://nasri.messarra.com) 8
Rational
Emotional
Analysis of 20,202 Tweets – Apr. 20 to 25, 2021
• 600 tweets with manual categorization
• 19,202 using machine learning
2021 Nasri Messarra (http://nasri.messarra.com) 9
Jayawant N. Mandrekar,
Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve in Diagnostic Test Assessment,
Journal of Thoracic Oncology, Volume 5, Issue 9, 2010,
Strong Dominance of Emotional Tweets
2021 Nasri Messarra (http://nasri.messarra.com) 10
One week later
2021 Nasri Messarra (http://nasri.messarra.com) 11
Lokman Slim Assassination
• Twitter Data Jan. 14 to Mar. 14, 2021
2021 Nasri Messarra (http://nasri.messarra.com) 12
Accusations of Collaboration
2021 Nasri Messarra (http://nasri.messarra.com) 13
2021 Nasri Messarra (http://nasri.messarra.com) 14
Conclusion
• “The reptilian brain always wins”
• The role of ONG for Investigation not to become infotainment
2021 Nasri Messarra (http://nasri.messarra.com) 15

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Smart Govs III: How Political Players Sway Public Opinion

  • 1. Smart GOVs Swaying Public Opinion: Is investigative journalism becoming part of the infotainment? 2021 Nasri Messarra (http://nasri.messarra.com) 1 ‫الذكية‬ ‫السياسية‬ ‫المنظومات‬ : ‫للترفيه؟‬ ‫سلعة‬ ‫االستقصائية‬ ‫الصحافة‬ ‫اصبحت‬ ‫هل‬
  • 2. The Shapes of Discussion Analysis 2021 Nasri Messarra (http://nasri.messarra.com) 2
  • 3. Political Discussions 2021 Nasri Messarra (http://nasri.messarra.com) 3 Polarized: - Dichotomy: with / against – left / right… - Strong and non-negotiable positions - High risk of conflict - Political debate Community Clusters: - Different ideas, different priorities - Social / Emotional debate
  • 4. Garbage Crisis 2015-2016 Analysis of 200,000+ interactions on Twitter – Sep.8, 2015 to Feb. 2, 2016 Civil society groups Community Clusters Two major groups: IranianAffairs and KSA24 Polarized crowds 2021 Nasri Messarra (http://nasri.messarra.com) 4 A health/societal problem becomes a political issue, paralyzing street/civil society action
  • 5. Resignation of PM Saad Hariri - Nov. 4, 2017 2021 Nasri Messarra (http://nasri.messarra.com) 5 A serious political issue becomes a joke
  • 6. 2021 Nasri Messarra (http://nasri.messarra.com) 6 Switching to Emotions Resignation of Hariri Hashtag Community Clusters (analysis of 10,149 interactions) Nov. 4, 2017 – 11:00 Nov. 6, 2017 – 00:00 Sharing Emotions
  • 7. How Serious is Serious? 2021 Nasri Messarra (http://nasri.messarra.com) 7 1. A judge is ignoring the public prosecutor order 2. A judge is being supported openly and physically by supporters of a political party 3. A judge is taking investigation in her own hands, without judicial police support 4. Mecattaf is a witness, not a criminal. And, in any case innocent until proven guilty.
  • 8. Categorization of Tweets 2021 Nasri Messarra (http://nasri.messarra.com) 8 Rational Emotional
  • 9. Analysis of 20,202 Tweets – Apr. 20 to 25, 2021 • 600 tweets with manual categorization • 19,202 using machine learning 2021 Nasri Messarra (http://nasri.messarra.com) 9 Jayawant N. Mandrekar, Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve in Diagnostic Test Assessment, Journal of Thoracic Oncology, Volume 5, Issue 9, 2010,
  • 10. Strong Dominance of Emotional Tweets 2021 Nasri Messarra (http://nasri.messarra.com) 10
  • 11. One week later 2021 Nasri Messarra (http://nasri.messarra.com) 11
  • 12. Lokman Slim Assassination • Twitter Data Jan. 14 to Mar. 14, 2021 2021 Nasri Messarra (http://nasri.messarra.com) 12
  • 13. Accusations of Collaboration 2021 Nasri Messarra (http://nasri.messarra.com) 13
  • 14. 2021 Nasri Messarra (http://nasri.messarra.com) 14
  • 15. Conclusion • “The reptilian brain always wins” • The role of ONG for Investigation not to become infotainment 2021 Nasri Messarra (http://nasri.messarra.com) 15

Editor's Notes

  1. Jayawant N. Mandrekar, Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve in Diagnostic Test Assessment, Journal of Thoracic Oncology, Volume 5, Issue 9, 2010, Pages 1315-1316, ISSN 1556-0864, https://doi.org/10.1097/JTO.0b013e3181ec173d. (https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1556086415306043) Abstract: The performance of a diagnostic test in the case of a binary predictor can be evaluated using the measures of sensitivity and specificity. However, in many instances, we encounter predictors that are measured on a continuous or ordinal scale. In such cases, it is desirable to assess performance of a diagnostic test over the range of possible cutpoints for the predictor variable. This is achieved by a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve that includes all the possible decision thresholds from a diagnostic test result. In this brief report, we discuss the salient features of the ROC curve, as well as discuss and interpret the area under the ROC curve, and its utility in comparing two different tests or predictor variables of interest. Keywords: Sensitivity; Specificity; ROC; AUC