Behavioral Economics : Predictive Analytics and Insights Infosys Vs TCS Q3-2015 through the Lens of Behavioral Economics

1. Infosys Vs TCS
Q3-2015
Through the Lens of Behavioral
Economics
Sankar Nagarajan
TEXTIENT Analytics

2. Using this document
Essential Reading
This document is intended to support practitioners’ level of awareness in the context of identifying and
leveraging predictive indictors or cues from Behavioral Economics in the area of Business Intelligence &
Analytics.
• It’s Intended to provide and enhance business practitioners “knowledge” of factors that are theoretically
linked to Behavioral Economics.
• It doesn’t provide a actuarial measure of an individual or a organisations’ behavior, performance or risks
• It is not to be used to determine or construct specific notions or legal charges against any individual or an
organisation.
• It is not to be used as a surveillance tool.

3. Behavioral Economics 101
Behavioral economics helps study the effects
of psychological, social, cognitive, and emotional
factors on the economic decisionsof individuals and
institutions and the consequences for market
prices, returns, and the resource allocation.
Source – Wikipedia
http://bit.ly/1gnKPqr

4. Jan’ 2015 ..
Vishal Sikka Begins With a Bang, Infosys Profit Beats Estimates
Infosys shares surged as much as 6.86 per cent on Friday after India's second
largest outsourcer beat earnings estimate in the December quarter. Analysts
said Q3 results bear the imprint of new chief executive Vishal Sikka, who is the
first non-found....
Source - NDTV Profit News
TCS reports flat net profit growth in Q3 | Business Standard ...
Jan 16, 2015 - The earnings of Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) for the quarter
ended December last year met industry estimates but failed to impress ...
Source- Business –Standard News
INFOSYS
TCS
Q3’15 Outcomes

5. Decoding ‘Behavioral Economics’
from Q3-2015 Public Data
Predictive Cues to the INFOSYS & TCS
Economies.. !

6. Uncovering #1
0
10
20
30
40
50
Infosys TCS
Trust
Optimism
Positive
Anticipation
*Gauged using TEXTIENT’s Affective platform using info./ data available in public domain coinciding Jan’15 Q3 earnings results
* Key Emotions & Scores
Predicted Affective Psychology: Emotions/Feelings that are key drivers of behavior

7. Affect Metrics & Indicators
Predicted Affect Metric (Emotion/Feeling) Possible Indicators (significations)
Trust • Trustworthiness – Inspire positive expectation
• Subjective well-being
• Sense of community
• Economic lubricant, reducing the cost of transactions between
parties, enabling new forms of cooperation ,furthering business
activities, employment and prosperity
Optimism • Positive attitude or disposition
- (independent of one's ability)
• Pro-active component (Planning)
• Logical & Concrete facts
Anticipation • Anticipate Excitement (+ve context)
• Anticipate happiness

8. Uncovering #2
*Key Metrics and scores Predicted
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
Infosys TCS
Performance orientation
Entrepreneurial Propensity
Simplicity
Creativity
Excellence/Innovation
Creative Pursuit Level
*TEXTIENT’s Predictive Analytics using info./ data available in public domain coinciding Jan’15 Q3 earnings results
Predicted Psychological and related Social, Cognitive factors

9. Psychological Metrics & Indicators
Predictive Analytics Metric Possible Indicators (Key Scope/Attributes)
Performance Orientation Success, Results/Outcome
Execution Excellence, Efficiencies
- Higher the score, better.
Excellence/Innovation Transformational, Differentiating, Winning
- Higher the score, better.
Simplicity ‘Broader ‘ Vs ‘Narrow attribution or focus’, ‘ Self’ Vs ‘Others’, Low
identity craving
- Higher the score, better.
Creativity Pursue new ideas and opportunities, Potential to Innovate, To be
disruptive , Originality, Broad interests
Creative Pursuits Divergent thinking/approach ,Initiate Multiple activities focused on
rich external stimulation, Diversity in experience.
- Higher the score, better.

10. Correlating the Predictions
Soft Validation of findings?

11. Sample External Correlation
Source: Google news Reference: slide #6
TCSINFOSYS

12. Sample External Correlation
TCS @80% INFOSYS @98%
Stock Trend
Chart source: Google
In net margins, Infosys is a shade better than TCS … Business –Standard.com

13. Sample External Correlation
Courtesy: Google search - News
TCSINFOSYS 90% 9%
94% 5%

14. Sample External Correlation
TCSINFOSYS
92% 94%
Source: business-standard.com
Source: nasdaq.com
Source: thehindubusinessline.com with
Mr.Vishal Sikka http://bit.ly/1CN1a5W
Source:
Google News
See http://bit.ly/VK42z9
Patent Applications & grants

15. Sample External Correlation
Courtesy: Google search – News , search terms: infosys people, tcs people dt. 29 Jan
TCSINFOSYS
36% 4%

16. Take Aways..
• What would help TCS or INFOSYS to lead the Transformation in the
Global IT Industry ?
• What is the disposition/participation levels in the brave new world of
creating knowledge-based capital?
– The value of many of the world’s most successful companies resides
almost entirely in their Knowledge based capital
– Live Mint article, India’s IT sector at the crossroads, dt. 13 Jan’15
? ?

17. Potential Applications ?
Behavioral Economics - Predictive Analytics & BI
• Digital Market Research at the ‘Speed of Thought’ !
– Improved Market & Consumer insights
• Individual & Organisation Innovation & Success sensing
– E.g. Cues for VCs about Startups’ Innovation and Success factors. Investment decisions
• Next generation Digital Marketing, Segmentation
• Competitive Analysis
• Social Listening
– ‘Enhanced’ Situational Awareness
– Customer, Consumer feelings & engagement apprisal
• Strategy & Planning
• Decision Making
• Economics

18. Inspiration
The Next revolution will be Psychological, NOT Technological !
@rorysutherland
YouTube link
http://bit.ly/15T8TCa

19. Thank you
Proudly analysed on the TEXTIENT platform
www.textient.com Twitter: @_textient

20. Disclaimer
The views mentioned in this presentation my own.
Data if used, in the article have been sourced from available information in
the public domain and has not been authenticated by any statutory authority.
Although every reasonable effort is made to present current or appropriate
information, there are no guarantees of any kind. Data accuracy cannot be
guaranteed. Social analysis included herein are based on data from public
sources, but no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is made as
to their accuracy, completeness, timeliness, or correctness. I am not liable for
any errors or inaccuracies, regardless of cause to you (readers,users).