1. BEER GAME
GROUP 1
SYSTEM THINKING
Teknik Industri Salemba UI 2022
1. Irwan Dwi Aprianto (2206013110)
2. Atiq Mujtaba (2206013003)
3. M Dzaky Fajratama (2206013155)
4. Iskandar Muda (2206105004)
5. Rijali Isnain Haripa (2206013281)
6. Puspita Firsty Lestari (2206013224)
7. Raditya Prabaswara (2206013230)
8. Lindsay Beanning (2206105036)
9. Machdian Muharam (2206105055)
10. Dandy Rachmat (2206013016)
2. Factory
1. Irwan Dwi Aprianto
2. Atiq Mujtaba
3. M Dzaky Fajratama
1.Inventory Decrease
> In the 6th week, Inventory starts to decrease because Incoming Orders
begin to increase in the 6th week, while the factory makes smaller
production in the 4th week to reduce inventory costs.
> In weeks 13-15, there will be zero inventory conditions. This is due to a
surge in Incoming Orders, while the factory is less accurate in predicting
incoming orders, resulting in a backlog in weeks 13-14.
> After the 19th week, the Inventory continues to be maintained so that it is
lean to reduce inventory costs by producing predictions for incoming orders
so that backlogs do not occur again.
2. Top Inventory
In week 17, Inventory increased significantly due to a decrease in Incoming
Orders.
3. Backlog
> Backlog occurs on weeks 13, 14, and 16 because Incoming Orders continue
to exceed Inventory.
> The factory tries to increase Inventory in week 17 by expanding the
Production Order from week 14, but the factory still keeps production not
too high to avoid increasing inventory cost.
4. Changes in Production Trends
> In weeks 1-10, the Factory makes Production orders low enough to reduce
inventory costs.
> However, in week 12, the Factory changed its strategy and started
increasing Production Orders because the inventory stock was decreasing to
near zero due to fluctuating incoming orders.
> Peak Production Order in week 14 because the Factory is trying to balance
inventory with incoming orders. This week also happened the first backlog
due to the non-fulfillment of all incoming orders.
> Production Orders are determined based on the amount of available
inventory and see the fluctuating pattern of incoming orders since the 12th
week.
Peak of Incoming Order
Lowest Incoming Order
Starting Point of Backlog
Peak of Backlog
Peak of Production
Order
Zero Inventory Condition
Ending of
Backlog
Peak of Inventory
Stock
Total inventory & Backlog cost
$ 101,0
3. Factory
For managing our supply production cycle, it’s necessary to maintain
inventory level in order to prevent any backlogs/production delay or
even out of stock by observing the incoming order.
Consequently, it will result high inventory costs if we did
overproduction without estimating the market demands from
distributors side. Therefore, we started to reduce the production and
still be able to fulfill the current order.
Production
Order
Incoming
Order
Production
Delay
Inventory
Level
Backlog
Cost
Backlog
Inventory
Cost
1. Irwan Dwi Aprianto
2. Atiq Mujtaba
3. M Dzaky Fajratama
4. Distributor
1. Overall, Incoming Orders tend to increase from week 1
to week 26 with highest incoming Order is in Week 12
by 15 crates.
2. Week with the lowest Incoming Orders are Week 4 and
5 by 3 crates.
3. Backlog starts to occur at Week 11 When the existing
Inventory can not meet the Incoming Order due to
orders made to the factory are always below the
Incoming Order.
4. The peak of the backlog also occurred on Week 12.
5. During the backlog situation, we have no goods in the
inventory.
6. Therefore, we placed a high number of orders which
was 24 crates on Week 14 to eliminate the backlog.
7. It worked with no backlog starting from Week 17.
8. However, there is change of direction that was
unexpected when we placed very high orders, Incoming
orders from Wholesales dropped significantly which
made inventory jump from Week 17 to Week 26 with
the highest inventory is 37 crates.
1. Iskandar Muda
2. Rijali Isnain Haripa
Peak of Incoming Order
Lowest Incoming Order
Starting Point of Backlog
Peak of Backlog
Peak of Place Order
Zero Inventory Condition
Ending of
Backlog
Increasing of
Inventory Stock
5. Distributor
Order
placed
Inventory
Cost
Incoming
Order
Shipping
Delay
Baglog
Penalty
Current
Inventory
1. Our decision to place an order for the next term is
influenced by current inventory cost, incoming order
and baglog penalty from previous term
2. The inventory cost closely related with amount of
inventory and amount in shipping which furthermore
influenced by supply decision from supplier
3. Incoming order closely affected by customer forecast,
which is uncontrollable variable. Customer forecast
also affected baglog penalty
4. Since baglog penalty is higher than inventory cost, its
very influence our decision to play safe by increasing
the inventory level
5. Changing in demand and shipping delay affecting
slow moving inventory and then accumulating with
the next shipping
Wholesaler
Forecast
Supply
from
Factory
Order
Shipped
1. Iskandar Muda
2. Rijali Isnain Haripa
6. Wholesaler
1. The peak of order happened from week 17 to week
20 with the highest order is 12 crates. The lowest
order occurred between week 4 and week 6 with the
lowest order is 3 crates
2. The escalation of order occurred from week 5 to
week 9 along with the increase of the incoming order
which reach its peak on week 10 with 15 crates.
Order decreased from week 21 to 24 along with the
decrease of incoming order. The drop in incoming
order caused an increasing of Inventory until it reach
its peaks on week 24 to 26 with 19 crates.
3. Wholesaler tried to follow incoming order in efforts
to balance and reduce its inventory cost. However,
with the sudden increasing of incoming order on
week 9 to 10, wholesaler experienced their first
backlog with 10 crates as its peak. In effort to reduce
the backlog, wholesaler begin to increase the order
placed to around 10-12 crates. But, the incoming
order start to decrease from week 19 to 26 so it
caused the increasing of the inventory to 19 crates
Peak in order = 12
Acceleration &
drop in order
Peak in inventory = 19
Peak in backlog = 10
1. Puspita Firsty Lestari
2. Raditya Prabaswara
7. Wholesaler
In beer game activities, there is a lead time of ordering for 2 weeks. The
wholesaler station also has 2 weeks to order from the Distributor.
The order from the customer only known by the retailer, while the order
known by the wholesaler based only on the incoming order from the
retailer without any communication and transparency.
All orders from the retailer must be met, or there will be a backlog penalty.
On the other hand, the inventory cost must be controlled.
In the 10th to 20th week, the trend of incoming orders continues to
increase. This causes lower inventory, the highest peak of incoming orders
in the 10th week which also causes a backlog. To anticipate that there will
be no backlog, then during the 9th to 22nd week we place orders to
Distributors with a stable amount in the estimated average number of
incoming orders, which is in the 10-12 range. However, in the 19th week,
incoming orders began to decline, this caused our inventory to be high from
the 19th week, until it peaked in the 23rd to 25th week. The actual orders
from customers tended to remain constant, however, fluctuations in
incoming orders caused Inaccurate demand forecasting causes the bullwhip
effect in the wholesaler’s gameplay.
Order
placed
Outgoing
order
Target
Inventory
Inventory
Incoming
order
Backlog
1. Puspita Firsty Lestari
2. Raditya Prabaswara
8. Retailer
1. The Peak order happened on Week 7 with quantity is
15 crate and Lowest order occurred in week 22 and
23 with quantity is 5 crate.
2. The Highest Inventory happened in week 4 till week 5
with quantity every week is 12 crate for anticipating
increase incoming order
3. Starting point of backlog happened in week 8
4. The Peak of backlog happened in week 16 with
quantity is 4 crate
5. Analysis of Customer Orders from the first to the
fourth week has similarities, namely 4 and in the fifth
week to the twenty-sixth week, customer demand is
also stable at number 8
6. In Retailer inventory decrease from week 4 to week
8 with varian quantity are 12, 8, 5, 3, 0 crate
7. on week 8 to week 25 in retailer have no inventory
(zero inventory) till week 26 increase 2 crate
Peak of Backlog = 4
1. Lindsay Beanning
2. Machdian Muharam
3. Dandy Rachmat
Peak of Order = 15
Highest of Inventory = 12
Stable Incoming Order = 8
Starting point of Backlog
Zero Inventory Condition
9. Retailer
Based on demand from customers (Customer orders) which tend to form a stable trend,
so as retailers, we can estimate orders shipped to wholesalers by looking at demand
trends from customers. The goal is to minimize inventory costs and also avoid backlogs.
The strategy of the retailer group is to make orders shipped to wholesalers not exceeding
customer orders. So our inventory costs and backlog tend to be minimal.
1. Incoming order, is a products requested by customer. The request will be
forwarded to the inventory to check the amount of available inventory. If
available from inventory then delivered to customer.
2. Inventory, is a product storage warehouse, inventory gets product demand
information from consumers and then forwards it delivered to customer,
product stock information in inventory goes into forecasting and planning which
will be taken into consideration for the next order, from the amount of
inventory we have we can also find out the number of backlog which is not
fulfilled, the inventory also receives incoming products from shipping by
wholesaler for products that have been ordered.
3. Backlog, is the products that cannot be fulfilled, the backlog is known from the
information of products in inventory, the backlog is also a consideration for
planning the next order.
4. Forecast and planning, is forecasting and planning of orders that will be carried
out, forecasting and planning getting information on the amount of inventory,
incoming orders from customers, and unfulfilled backlogs then taken into
consideration in ordering, after the order plan is complete, the order will be
forwarded to the order place.
5. Shipping 1 is product delivery from wholesalers which will then go to shipping 2.
shipping 2 to inventory.
6. Order placed, is an order request to a wholesaler.
Order
placed
Customer
Order
Inventory
Shipping 1
from
Wholesaler
Incoming
Order
1. Lindsay Beanning
2. Machdian Muharam
3. Dandy Rachmat
Forecasting
& Planning
Backlog
Delivered to
customer
Shipping 2
10. Order Place & Cost Analysis
1. According to the graph, Bullwhip effect occur when there is an increase of graph consecutively starting from the station who closest to the customers and
continuing to the station in the upstream.
2. Despite every station being independent, however when they are grouped into a system, every station tends to “be hostaged” and follow the same pattern of
the system.
3. There is an anomaly occurred after week 16 where the factory changed their decision so they was not too affected by the pattern.
