Ims Sdp Lte Market


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Telecom Market Trends
Mobile, IMS, SDP, LTE

  • That was very exhaustive and insightful.

    If the applications of IMS mentioned in slide 46 to the market scenario of each of those that would have been wonderful.

    Vinu Jose
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Ims Sdp Lte Market

  1. 1. 3G, 4G, LTE, IMS, IPTV, SDP and Web 2.0 Next generation network and services 2010 Telecom Master Class IMS and SDP
  2. 2. Big Forces PEOPLE One World Culture Technology Savy Opportunist BROADBAND Everywhere Always on Cheap DEVICE Connected Ubiquitous Fancy SERVICE Personalized Innovative On demand
  3. 3. Market figures <ul><li>6.7billion people ww – 115 billion have ever lived on earth - </li></ul><ul><li>The population of the world reached 1 billion in 1804, 2 billion in 1927, 3 billion in 1960, 4 billion in 1974, 5 billion in 1987, and 6 billion in 1999. </li></ul><ul><li>The population of the world is projected to reach 7 billion in 2012, 8 billion in 2025, and 9 billion in 2040. </li></ul><ul><li>4.5billion mobile users in the world </li></ul><ul><li>70% are prepaid </li></ul><ul><li>17% use smartphone </li></ul><ul><li>1 billion have no bank account </li></ul><ul><li>by 2011, mobile business could be 1 trillion $, voice would be 69%, messaging $116B </li></ul><ul><li>Facebook as 300 000 users, was nber 1 site visited at Christmas 2009 </li></ul><ul><li>Apple appstore download reached 3 Billion on Jan 4, 2010 </li></ul><ul><li>Ellen de Generis has more twitter followers than population of Ireland, Norway and Panama </li></ul><ul><li>Wikipedia has 13 million articles </li></ul><ul><li>There are about 200 million blogs </li></ul><ul><li>Google says that 78% of consumers trust peer recommendation </li></ul><ul><li>1 million books are published every year </li></ul><ul><li>Americans have access to … 1 billion web pages, 200 TV channels, 5500 newspapers, 300 000 mobile apps, etc </li></ul><ul><li>YouTube, Myspace, facebook get 250 million visitors every months </li></ul><ul><li>Top 3 US TV get 10 million visitors every month </li></ul>
  4. 4. Market figures (2) <ul><li>Number of PCs ww over 1Billion and to hit 2B by 2015 </li></ul><ul><li>15 billion intelligent, connected devices by the year 2015¹ - IDC Jan09 </li></ul><ul><li>capacity in broadband access networks to homes and businesses must expand by a factor of between 10 and 100 over the next few years </li></ul><ul><li>by 2015 annual U.S. Internet and IP traffic will reach 1,000 exabytes, or one zettabyte, which is one million million billion bytes of data. A zettabyte is roughly equivalent to 50 million Libraries of Congress </li></ul><ul><li>AT&T CTO John Donovan disclosed that Wireless Data Volume growth for the company stands at 4932% over 12 quarters – oct 09 </li></ul><ul><li>FTTH : a 100 trillion investment opportunity </li></ul><ul><li>By 2015, 40% of workers in the US will be remote from home (Wendell Cox) </li></ul><ul><li>most operators still earn 70% of their revenue from voice and SMS services </li></ul><ul><li>2009  will generate around 4.5-5 trillion SMS messages across the globe </li></ul><ul><li>Revenue from mobile IMS (IP Multimedia Subsystem) sales is expected to increase more than 100% over the next five years, according to ABI Research. Approximately $8.4 billion was spent on IMS during 2009. According to principal analyst Aditya Kaul, that figure will rise to $17.3 billion in 2014. </li></ul><ul><li>a group of operators and OEMs -- AT&T, Orange, Telefonica, TeliaSonera, Verizon, Vodafone, Alcatel-Lucent, Ericsson, Nokia Siemens Networks, Nokia, Samsung and Sony Ericsson - has agreed on the &quot;One Voice Profile,&quot; a standard that defines a viable solution for voice in LTE </li></ul><ul><li>the number of bytes of data traffic carried by mobile packet core networks worldwide will result in a yearly doubling of data traffic from almost 400 petabytes (400 million gigabytes) a year in 2009 to almost 2,000 petabytes (2 billion gigabytes) a year by 2011, bypassing the estimated volume of voice traffic (1,200 petabytes).“ </li></ul>
  5. 5. 3G and IP Multimedia Subsystem (IMS) Market Evolution Overview
  6. 6. Agenda <ul><li>Network evolution : 2G to 3G and LTE </li></ul><ul><li>Services versus Speed </li></ul><ul><li>ARPU, OPEX and Capex </li></ul><ul><li>Services </li></ul><ul><li>IMS introduction </li></ul><ul><li>LTE and IMS </li></ul><ul><li>IPTV and IMS </li></ul><ul><li>Cloud, M2M, AppStore, Smart Grid </li></ul>
  7. 7. Going to 4G 802.11n (smart antennas) 802.11 Mesh extns. Local Area Fixed Wide Area Mobile Coverage/Mobility Metro Area Nomadic 802.16 (Fixed LOS) 802.16a/d (Fixed NLOS) 802.11b/a/g Mobile Industry Fixed Wireless Industry Data Rates (kbps) 3GPP2 GSM UMTS HSPA GPRS EDGE LTE 3GPP MOBILE BROADBAND DSL Experience Dial Up Higher Data Rate / Lower Cost per Bit 802.16e (Mobile WIMAX) 4G Air Interfaces March 22, 2010 CDMA 2000-1X HRPDA 1x EVDO 1x EVDV Rel. C 1x EVDV Rel. D
  8. 8. Different technologies Code division multiple access Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiplexing Time division multiple access (US)
  9. 9. TDMA – IS 136 (US)
  10. 10. TDMA - GSM
  11. 11. CDMA – IS 95
  12. 12. Different technologies Phones for Europe + US => at least dual band …
  13. 14. Evolution GPRS : 171kbps (real : 30 kbps) EDGE : 177kbps EDGE + GPRS = E-GPRS : 300 kbps UMTS : 384 kbps ( 1900-2000 MHz) HSPDA : 1.8Mbps LTE: 40Mbps (theory : 250 Mbps)
  14. 15. Towards LTE HSDPA ( High-Speed Downlink Packet Access ) : 1.8, 3.6, 7.2 and 14.4 Mbps – HSDPA+ : 42Mbps HSOPA ( High Speed OFDM Packet Access ) : 100Mb downlink, 50Mb uplink Latency could be as low as 20ms LTE
  15. 16. Comparison of Mobile Internet Access methods 0.144 0.144 CDMA Mobile phone CDMA2000 1xRTT >50 >100 OFDMA / MIMO / SC-FDMA  ( HSOPA ) General 4G UMTS/4GSM LTE UMTS 16 16 CDMA / TDD Mobile Internet UMTS/3GSM UMTS-TDD 0.384 5.76 11.5 0.384 14.4 42 CDMA / FDD CDMA/FDD/ MIMO Mobile phone UMTS/3GSM UMTS W-CDMA HSDPA + HSUPA HSPA+ 0.9 1.9 TDMA / FDD Mobile Internet GSM EDGE Evolution 64 64 HC-SDMA / TDD / MIMO Mobile Internet iBurst 802.20 iBurst 50 50 OFDMA Mobile Internet WiBro WiBro 56.9 56.9 OFDM Mobile Internet HIPERMAN HIPERMAN 70 70 MIMO-SOFDMA Mobile Internet WiMAX 802.16e Uplink (Mbps) Downlink (Mbps) Radio Tech Primary Use Family Standard
  16. 17. 3GPP requirements per Service Ex: 1 st person shooter game
  17. 18. Comparison of latency What is Latency? 1. The time it takes for a packet to cross a network connection, from sender to receiver. 2. The period of time that a frame is held by a network device before it is forwarded. Two of the most important parameters of a communications channel are its latency, which should be low, and its bandwidth , which should be high. Latency is particularly important for a synchronous protocol where each packet must be acknowledged before the next can be transmitted. Ex- Latency for satellite connections is very high due to the distance the satellites are from earth. One-way systems typically get pings in 450ms about average and two-way systems in 850ms about average. -> ok for internet, IMS (ex:msn) but not for shooting games for instance, or VOIP (some companies have enhanced that though to provide VOIP over satellite) For IP telephony to be successful, VoIP latency target is 150ms or less
  18. 19. Wireless Technology Transfer Rates Average data transfer rates* WiMAX HSDPA EV-DO UMTS EDGE CDMA 1X GPRS 60 kbps 115 kbps 256 kbps 400 kbps 1.0 Mbps 4.0 Mbps 35 kbps aacPlus v2 32 kbps aacPlus 64 kbps AAC/WMA 128 kbps MP3 160 kbps LTE 802.11g 4.0 Mbps 14.4 Mbps MP3 song 11 mins 6 mins 3 mins 2 mins 38 secs 10 secs 18mins 10 secs 3 sec MOTOROLA, the Stylized M Logo, and MOTOWI4 are registered in the US Patent & Trademark Office. All other product or service names are the property of their respective owners. © Motorola, Inc. 2006 Encoding options effect quality and size 128kbps – 192kbps typical LTE will deliver a very useable mobile broadband experience March 22, 2010 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 (MB)
  19. 20. Capacity & Efficiency March 22, 2010 HSPA mWiMAX LTE Peak Data Rate 5+5MHz paired FDD channel 16QAM / QPSK – 3/4 Raw: 14.4 / 5.7 Mbps Useful: 10.8 / 4.3 Mbps 20MHz TDD channel, DL:UL=2:1 64QAM / 16QAM – 3/4 Raw: 56 / 18.7 Mbps Useful: 42 / 14 Mbps 20+20MHz paired FDD channel 64QAM / 16QAM – 3/4 Raw: 100 / 50 Mbps Useful: 75 / 37.5 Mbps Spectral Efficiency Raw: 2.88 / 1.15 bps/Hz Useful: 2.16 / 0.86 bps/Hz Raw: 4.2 / 2.8 bps/Hz Useful: 3.15 / 2.1 bps/Hz Raw: 5 / 2.5 bps/Hz Useful: 3.75 / 1.88 bps/Hz VoIP Performance <ul><li>12 concurrent users/cell/MHz** </li></ul><ul><li>430 km/h with guaranteed QoS* </li></ul><ul><li>16 concurrent users/cell/MHz** </li></ul><ul><li>Focus on nomadic mobility, also vehicular speeds up to 120 km/h </li></ul><ul><li>24 concurrent users/cell/MHz** (NGMN: 60-80, UMB: 50+) </li></ul><ul><li>350 km/h target speed </li></ul>Scheduling Decentralised fast scheduling and retransmission, proportional fair scheduler – exploit short-term variations (channel dependent scheduling for multi-user diversity gain) but maintain long-term fairness Fast data scheduling, DL and UL, dynamic resource allocation, QoS oriented, frequency selective scheduling; current implementations may require increased interference margins Efficient scheduling / data multiplexing, ~100% efficiency target (channel and queue aware scheduling in frequency or spatial domain)
  20. 23. LTE trial – Telia Sonera <ul><li>Launched by TeliaSonera in December 2009 (only in Oslo and Stockholm for the beginning), the world’s first commercial 4G / LTE network </li></ul><ul><li>=> doesn’t seem to be as awesome as users have expected. </li></ul><ul><li>Modem : Samsung GT-B3710 LTE modem – the only LTE modem available at the moment. </li></ul><ul><li>Downlink : 12Mbps </li></ul><ul><li>Uplink : 5 Mbps </li></ul><ul><li>=> Quite disapointing, tests were expecting 100 Mbps </li></ul>
  21. 24. LTE Mobility Applications March 22, 2010
  22. 25. Other 4G experimentations <ul><li>Ex Wimax (802.16), iBurst (802.20)... </li></ul><ul><li>Samsung did a wireless connection at 100 Mb/s in a bus driving at 60km/h. </li></ul><ul><li>NTT DoCoMo in Japan has transmitted data at 5gb/s on his future 4G network,1300 times faster than the 3.5G launched in japan in 2006. </li></ul><ul><li>With 4G, you could transfer a 2h movie in less than 10 secondes ! </li></ul>
  23. 26. Migration Timeline from Circuit switching (CS – ss7) to Packet Switching (PS -IP)
  24. 27. IMS IP Multimedia Subsystems
  25. 28. Evolution of 3GPP Releases <ul><li>Release 99 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>1 st deployable version of UMTS, enhancements to GSM data (EDGE) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Release 4 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Multimedia messaging support. 1 st step toward IP transport in the core </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Release 5 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>HSDPA, 1 st phase IMS </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Release 6 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>HSUPA, WLAN integration, IMS enhancements , Initial VoIP </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Release 7 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>HSPA, MIMO, Always on, Performance enhancements </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Release 8 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Dual carrier doubles througut, OFDMA 3GPP LTE , EPC definition </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Release 9 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Enhancements to HSPA, HSPA+, LTE enhancements </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Release 10 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>LTE Advanced </li></ul></ul>March 22, 2010 We are here
  26. 29. IMS in UMTS Rel 6 <ul><li>Presence and Group management </li></ul><ul><li>Conferencing </li></ul><ul><li>Instant Messaging </li></ul><ul><li>Push to talk over cellular </li></ul><ul><li>Interworking with IP and CS networks </li></ul><ul><li>Lawful intercept </li></ul><ul><li>Support for public service identities </li></ul><ul><li>Support for interworking with IPv4 endpoints </li></ul>=> Key element is Group Communication
  27. 30. UMTS Rel 7.
  28. 34. IMS market size Informa IMS - IMS market to Reach $4.5B by 2010 - source Informa March 06 - 39 million users will adopt IMS-based services in the fixed market, by 2011. This compares with the 188 million in the mobile sector. Key early services will include VoIP and IPTV in the fixed environment and Push over Cellular and Instant Messaging in the mobile market Source : Venture, August 2005 = 2.6B$ in 2008
  29. 35. Market forecast – Aug 09
  30. 36. IMS Market – Nov 09 update
  31. 37. Key highlights <ul><li>led by continued adoption of VoIP services around the world and by service providers migrating their VoIP networks to IMS </li></ul><ul><li>Worldwide sales of IMS equipment jumped 108% between 1Q09 and 2Q09, to $164 million </li></ul><ul><li>While Ericsson has long led the IMS market in overall number of network deployments, Huawei, Nokia Siemens, and Alcatel-Lucent are providing serious competition </li></ul><ul><li>Fixed-line VoIP remains the primary application deployed over IMS, with high levels of adoption in EMEA </li></ul><ul><li>Mobility leads the way for future applications enabled by IMS networks </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Top applications service providers plan to implement include FMC, mobile presence, and mobile messaging </li></ul></ul><ul><li>3Q09 carrier VoIP and IMS markets holding steady with our expectations. </li></ul><ul><li>&quot;Mobile operator migration to IP and adoption of RCS will drive IMS deployments over the next four to five years.&quot; </li></ul>
  32. 38. market
  33. 39. RCS market
  34. 40. IMS Architecture overview
  35. 41. Data revenues continue to grow March 22, 2010
  36. 42. WW Mobile BB ARPU ($USD) March 22, 2010
  37. 43. Capex-Opex versus Revenues drives IMS Time Dollars Revenue Expenses Source: BT Group CTO Matt Bross SDP & IMS SDP & IMS IMS Invest to Save Invest to Grow
  38. 44. standards activities An open architecture for communication services Next Generation Networks I M S Enterprise Communication Mobile Web Initiative Mobility Applications Coexistence NGN Integrated service delivery plane Multimedia connectivity Adaptive platforms input input drive drive Joined April 2005 TR45.2 => Fixed and Mobile networks adopt IMS Organization for the Advancement of Structured Information Standards Telecommunications Industry Association 3 rd G Partnership Project Internet Engineering Task Force Telecommunications and Internet converged Services & Protocols for Advanced Networking European Telecommunications Standards Institute
  39. 45. IMS Drivers and Caveats March 22, 2010 <ul><li>Data obtained from Frost &Sullivan Report “ IMS Ready for Primetime” – Feb. 07 </li></ul>
  40. 46. Viable IMS Applications by Segment March 22, 2010 <ul><li>Data obtained from Frost &Sullivan Report “ IMS Ready for Primetime” – Feb. 07 </li></ul>X X X 32% Rich Voice (enhanced QoS) X X X 29% Audio Streaming X X X 48% Video Streaming (Push to see,mobile video,etc.) X 55% IP - Centrex X X 75% FMC – Seamless Roaming Application %** Wireless Wireline Cable Instant Multimedia Messaging 73% X X X Video Telephony (mobile video/TV) 68% X X X Interactive Gaming 38% X X X Push to Talk (POC) 33% X Location Services 28% X Push to talk enhanced (QoS) for Enterprise ------ X Cable Applications – Caller ID, Presence change, etc. ------ X
  41. 47. Application prices
  42. 48. Phased deployment of IMS
  43. 49. Moving to 4G
  44. 50. LTE and IMS
  45. 51. IMS and LTE September 28, 2009 Pyramid Research – May 2009 Source for Market Segment Revenue: Infonetics 09
  46. 53. Devices MWC – Huawei 1st triple-mode LTE modem. E398 LTE device is backwards compatible with 3G UMTS and 2G GSM technology. MWC – SamSung LTE Laptop N150 using Samsung own LTE chipset LG LTE Modem gets japanese Certification. LG already got FCC certification with 2 other LTE modem Samsung LTE dongle Available for Telia Sonera
  47. 54. LTE topology
  48. 56. Only Data Voice goes to circuit switch
  49. 57. Voice & Data on LTE Via IMS + VCC
  50. 58. IPTV and IMS The Quad Play : * fixed * mobile * internet * IPTV
  51. 59. Market size
  52. 60. IPTV in europe Note – Parks and Associates target 27M in 2011
  53. 61. IPTV middleware vendors (1) Global Middleware Rankings by Deployed Subscribers Source: Market Leaders Report, March 2007 Copyright © 2006 MRG, Inc. Microsoft 14 Oki 13 Kasenna 12 Tandberg 11 UIEvolution 10 Netgem 9 Minerva 8 Orca 7 Motorola 6 Siemens 5 UTStarcom 4 Alcatel-Lucent 3 Cascade 2 Thomson 1 Comany Rank
  54. 62. IPTV middleware vendors (2) <ul><li>Alcatel-Lucent MiViewTV, </li></ul><ul><li>Cascade QualiTView, </li></ul><ul><li>Espial Evo, </li></ul><ul><li>Kasenna LivingRoom, </li></ul><ul><li>Microsoft Mediaroom (formerly Microsoft TV IPTV Edition), </li></ul><ul><li>Minerva Networks iTV Manager, </li></ul><ul><li>Nokia Siemens Networks’ Myrio platform, </li></ul><ul><li>Orca Interactive RiGHTv, </li></ul><ul><li>Quative TV Service Delivery Platform, </li></ul><ul><li>SeaChange TV Platform, </li></ul><ul><li>Thomson SmartVision TV, </li></ul><ul><li>UTStarcom RollingStream. </li></ul>Microsoft Mediaroom Evolution of MSTV edition platform. announced on June 18 , 2007 , has been adopted by AT&T (U.S.), BT (UK), SingTel (Singapore), T-Home (Germany) and Reliance (India) as their IPTV delivery platform. The software is slated to be ported for the Xbox 360 platform soon.
  55. 63. IPTV Fig. 1 System structure of IPTV
  56. 64. IPTV and IMS : possible scenarios <ul><li>1) basic caller ID on IP TV screen </li></ul><ul><li>2) actions upon receipt of caller ID </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Pose current channel or record current channel etc </li></ul></ul><ul><li>3) IMS service being sent to IPTV screen when on </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Ie karaoke/birthday greeting – check if IPTV on, if yes, fwd to IPTV screen </li></ul></ul><ul><li>4) Parent remote approval </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Kids home, want to watch a program with parental control, request sent to SDP-IMS to check parent approval via SMS, IM or phone call and DTMF approval </li></ul></ul><ul><li>etc </li></ul>
  57. 66. IMS integration with IPTV Caller ID
  58. 67. Other scenario: remote approval
  59. 68. M2M
  60. 69. M2M Market Dynamics: sizes & trends September 28, 2009 55M SIM cards in 2009 to 180M in 2013 at 30% CAGR Very little reliable ARPU price point (between $4.5 and $30 a month), leading to a market size ranging between $810M and $5.4B in 2013 (source: Berg Insight) <ul><li>In 2008 , M2M market is composed as: </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>$2.4B for wireless SP , </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>$6.4B for vertical platform & components </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>$43B for value added services (applications) </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><li>with a CAGR over 30% in all segments </li></ul><ul><li>(source: Harbor Research institute) </li></ul><ul><li>The M2M solution market is organized in silos with specialized players, devices and extremely fragmented value chain and high costs per device </li></ul><ul><li>The emergence of IP-enabled smart grid and sensors, evolution of standards and new domains of application will help breaking silos leading to consolidation and more compact value chain </li></ul>
  61. 70. Market Dynamics: segments September 28, 2009 Smart Metering Monopolize most of industry’s attention due to size of opportunity Still non-proven market for Communication Service Providers. Very little added value. Government or Regulatory driven opportunity eHealth keep dependant people (elderly, children, sick…) safe at home Mid-term opportunity (2-3 years) Complex value chain. Price point $1 per day per monitored pathology Home / Building automation <ul><ul><li>Leverage SP presence in homes (through STB) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Home security (video surveillance, fire/flood prevention, intrusion detection…) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Home (appliances control, energy consumption monitoring…) </li></ul></ul>Transportation Current M2M business is here – mostly fleet management Dedicated On Board Unit (GPS + SIM) and application infrastructure on top of existing cellular infrastructure Urban Management Better use of collective resources (lights, waste collection, cities…) Research area for future use of M2M infrastructure when deployed TI and Orange are very active in that domain M2M platforms M2M requires an adaptation of OSS and BSS systems of SP Device proliferation will incur major transformation in the communication infrastructure
  62. 71. M2M WIFI LAN ZigBee LAN Digital Content Management Video Surveillance PCs Smart Plugs Smoke detector & Heat sensor Motion detectors Temperature & Humidity sensor Windows/doors contactors Temperature Lights Appliances Metering Energy consumption Fire Detection Intrusion detection Storage Accounting Content Applications Identity Devices Application Infrastructure End User Doctor / Hospital Police Telecom Infrastructure Gateway Gateway Street lights management Waste collection management Public transportation management Air Quality Control City Hall Local authorities Call Center Healthcare
  63. 72. Cloud - SaaS
  64. 73. Beyond Software-as-a-Service Page: Source: Saugatuck Technology Wave III: 2008-2013 Workflow-Enabled Business Transformation Beyond Software-as-a-Service: Cloud Computing Wave I: 2001-2006 Cost-Effective Software Delivery Adoption Low High Wave II: 2005-2010 Integrated Business Solutions SaaS 1.0 <ul><li>Early SaaS Adoption </li></ul><ul><li>Stand-alone Apps </li></ul><ul><li>Multi-tenancy </li></ul><ul><li>Limited Configurability </li></ul><ul><li>Focus on TCO / rapid deployment </li></ul><ul><li>Mainstream SaaS Adoption </li></ul><ul><li>Integrated w/ Business </li></ul><ul><li>SaaS Integration Platforms </li></ul><ul><li>Business Marketplaces and SaaS Ecosystems </li></ul><ul><li>Customization Capability </li></ul><ul><li>Focus on Integration </li></ul>SaaS 2.0 <ul><li>Ubiquitous SaaS Adoption </li></ul><ul><li>Focus on Business Transformation </li></ul><ul><li>ISV to SaaS Enablement </li></ul><ul><li>Server and Application Virtualization </li></ul><ul><li>SaaS Development Platforms (PaaS) </li></ul><ul><li>Public Cloud Infrastructure (IaaS) </li></ul><ul><li>Cloud Collaboration Platforms </li></ul><ul><li>Customized, Personalized Workflow </li></ul>Cloud Computing <ul><li>Post-SaaS Adoption </li></ul><ul><li>End-to-End Cloud Business Processes </li></ul><ul><li>Intelligent Hubs Linking Platforms </li></ul><ul><li>Virtualization on Mobile Devices </li></ul><ul><li>Elastic Cloud Infrastructure </li></ul><ul><li>Standards for Workload Portability </li></ul><ul><li>SLAs for Composite Service Offerings </li></ul><ul><li>Support at Business Process Level </li></ul>Wave IV: 2011-2016 Measured, Monitored, Managed Business Processes The focus of SaaS shifts over time from cost-effective delivery of stand-alone application services (Wave I), to integrated business solutions enabled by web services APIs and ESBs (Wave II), to workflow- and collaboration-enabled business transformation (Wave III), leading to measured, monitored and managed business processes (Wave IV). By 2012, Cloud Computing will capture at least twenty five percent of IT spending growth. 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2004 2005 2014 2015 2016 2003
  65. 74. SaaS Technology Considerations Page: Source: Saugatuck Technology Inc., 2009 SaaS Survey (Dec ‘08), N=1788 Technology Considerations United States Europe Asia Robust backup/recovery capabilities 69.8% 61.0% 73.5% Robust disaster recovery capabilities 67.8% 57.6% 71.8% Software development platform & tools 51.4% 49.9% 63.5% Web Services API 49.0% 46.6% 61.7% SLA compliance data 45.5% 47.8% 59.1% SOA architecture 40.6% 42.5% 56.0% Display data on mobile devices 37.7% 46.7% 53.7% Multi-tenancy based solution 32.4% 42.1% 55.9% Support for Web 2.0 mashups 37.2% 41.4% 55.0% Update data via mobile devices 34.3% 45.1% 52.4% Appliance form factor 24.9% 41.9% 53.0%
  66. 75. Chart: Saugatuck Insight : In 2009, Collaboration, Mobility Management, Customer Service and Talent & Performance Management are top priority SaaS purchases. However, through 2011, Collaboration, Customer Service, Finance / Accounting and HR Benefits are the top priority SaaS solutions – reflecting a growing shift in demand over time to core business systems. Source: Saugatuck Technology Inc., 2009 SaaS Survey (Dec ‘08), N=1788 Top 3 SaaS Solutions by Company Size In 2009: Top 3 SaaS Solutions by Company Size 100-300 300-500 500-1000 1000-2500 2500-5000 >5000 Collaboration Procurement & Sourcing Collaboration Treasury & Cash Management Mobility Management Time & Labor Management Customer Service BI & CPM Customer Service Talent & Performance Mgt Talent & Performance Mgt Collaboration Mobility Management Sales Force Automation Mobility Management Collaboration ERP / Manufacturing BI & CPM Thru 2011: Top 3 SaaS Solutions by Company Size 100-300 300-500 500-1000 1000-2500 2500-5000 >5000 Collaboration Treasury & Cash Management Collaboration Collaboration Collaboration Collaboration Customer Service Collaboration Customer Service HR/Benefits Customer Service Time & Labor Management Finance/ Accounting E-Commerce Finance/ Accounting Finance/ Accounting HR/Benefits HR/Benefits
  67. 76. AppStore
  68. 77. Phone shipment - % <ul><li>1- Nokia – 38.5% </li></ul><ul><li>2- Samsung – 19.5% </li></ul><ul><li>3- LG – 11% </li></ul><ul><li>4- Motorola – 5.5% </li></ul><ul><li>5- Sony Ericsson – 5.1% </li></ul><ul><li>6- Apple – 2% </li></ul>
  69. 78. Phone market profits Estimates say that RIM + Apple will reach 5% of Smartphone ww market in 2009 But 58% of operating profits – mainly due to wireless operators subsidies (400$ for iphone and 100-200$ for RIM)
  70. 81. Iphone app prices – Aug 09 Most apps between 0.99 And 2.99$ 1.5 billion downloads on the Appstore … iphone? iTouch? Ipod ? Free ?
  71. 82. Mobile application market 20 billion Downloads By 2014 ! 25 billion revenues By 2014 ! = = 1$ average per app download ??
  72. 83. App-Store business model <ul><li>Apple Iphone : store, SDK, 1 device, revenue sharing 70% for developers, 72000 apps </li></ul><ul><li>Android : OS opensource, SDK, store, revenue sharing 70% for developers -> tight to multiple handset, gaming platform, GPS etc + Google Apps model/free/ad model </li></ul><ul><li>Nokia-OVI : store, SDK, 1 device N97, revenue sharing? (store + Devt environment launched in May) </li></ul><ul><li>Opera : opensource browser,SDK, store, multiplatform – store can be downloaded on SP premises and SP controls the store content + business model </li></ul><ul><li>RIM : store/few devices blackberry – store + dev program to be launched in March – 80% for developers, 20% for others (incl operators) </li></ul><ul><li>Samsung : app store + dev SDK – now </li></ul><ul><li>Microsoft : windows mobile 6.5 – app store + devt program – soon </li></ul><ul><li>Getjar : free apps, ? Business model </li></ul>
  73. 84. Android developers & market Google Android OS now open source – SDK for developers and device handset vendors
  74. 85. T-mobile, android & intelligence
  75. 86. OVI by Nokia developers desktop Nokia Apps Store
  76. 87. BlackberryCool Appstore Minimum price : 2.99$ , max 999.99$ Launched May 09 - 2,000 applications available in July 09
  77. 88. Microsoft Mobile appstore
  78. 89. Handango platform <ul><li>16,000 content providers </li></ul><ul><li>(ie app developers ) </li></ul><ul><li>9 platforms supported </li></ul><ul><li>7 years commercial usage </li></ul><ul><li>Millions of users </li></ul><ul><li>140,000 apps </li></ul><ul><li>15,000 apps for blackberry </li></ul>
  79. 90. Getjar End User Developer Beta Tester Free apps Many platforms
  80. 91. Qualcomm Plazza Retail multi OS/device & Mobile
  81. 92. New ipaq application store aug 09
  82. 93. Appstore models
  83. 94. Smart Grid
  84. 95. What is Smart Grid ? <ul><li>A smart grid delivers electricity from suppliers to consumers using two-way digital technology to control appliances at consumers' homes to save energy, reduce cost and increase reliability and transparency. </li></ul><ul><li>Such a modernized electricity network is being promoted by many governments as a way of addressing energy independence , global warming and emergency resilience issues. </li></ul><ul><li>Smart meters may be part of a smart grid, but alone do not constitute a smart grid. </li></ul>
  85. 96. Smart Grid ww market
  86. 97. Smart Grid business (B$)
  87. 104. Vendors … some big names <ul><li>IBM - 1 st positioned on Smart Grid. Signed Malta, Australia, a danish electric car project etc </li></ul><ul><li>Cisco “EnergyWise” for green building etc – on Catalyst </li></ul><ul><li>SAP bought ClearStandards, created a Carbone dashboard with StreamServe - targets governments RFP </li></ul><ul><li>Oracle bought SDL WorldGroup and Lodestar and offers a complete SW suite for electric utilities </li></ul><ul><li>Google “Powermeter” - </li></ul><ul><li>Free dashboard to monitor your home electrical consumption - </li></ul>
  88. 105. Cisco EnergyWise - <ul><li>The first version of EnergyWise , available now, will run on Cisco Catalyst 2xxx and 3xxx Series switches and monitor and control IP phones, access points and any network-attached device running off Power over Ethernet. A second release this summer will see it also controlling other network-attached devices, such as PCs, and running on Catalyst 4500 Series switches. And within about 12 months it will work with a wide range of heating, ventilation and air conditioning systems and operate on Cisco’s flagship Catalyst 6500 Series switches.  </li></ul><ul><li>EnergyWise is already being used by Cisco customers such as Lauth Property Group in the United States, the Ministry of Education in Portugal and Birmingham City Council and the John Lewis Partnership in the United Kingdom. Plus this is an eco-friendly technology that will get a green light from the financial director: EnergyWise is being offered as a free software update and in the 5000-employee company example quoted above Cisco estimates annual savings will amount to more than EUR€28,000 or USD$37,000.  </li></ul>
  89. 106. Google Powermeter Example – in the US people can buy a device from a Google device partner and measure their home consumption with Google powermeter, including on your iphone or Android phone with iGoogle - 200$ Google has also signed a number of partners : 8 partnership with US and Indian Utilities , incl San Diego for 1.4Million houses – 572M$ project
  90. 107. Oracle <ul><li>Oracle’s Smart Grid Software Details </li></ul><ul><li>Oracle’s smart grid software unifies information from various segments of the Smart Grid network, including service delivery, customer interaction and consumer energy usage. Components of Oracle® Fusion Middleware underlie these applications with processes that help integrate and manage large meter data batch files with Oracle Data Integrator or automate meter and sensor data filtering and front-end processing using Oracle Complex Event Processing. The solution also provides standards-based integration with a technology infrastructure that includes Oracle® Database, as well as software for project management and enterprise analytics. Oracle’s smart grid software includes the following solutions: </li></ul><ul><li>Oracle® Utilities Network Management System – Integrates with advanced metering infrastructure (AMI), allowing utilities to proactively respond to outages and be more precise when providing consumer alerts and notifications – enabling the smart meter to send a “last gasp” message to report a power loss thus eliminating the need for a customer to report the outage. Oracle Utilities Network Management System also supports automated isolation of faulted feeder sections and the re-energizing of un-faulted sections, minimizing sustained outages. Its integrated distribution capability supports the continual assessment of power delivery and available feeder capacity in a distribution network that optimizes operations. </li></ul><ul><li>Oracle® Utilities Customer Care and Billing – Allows utilities to harness the benefits of new smart grid technologies and AMI, such as two-way communications, to better contain operational costs and control consumer energy demand through conservation and time-based pricing programs, as well as improve customer service and environmental awareness. It can provide customers with a clear picture of the relationship between their consumption and environmental impact, then offer service options to help change behavior. </li></ul><ul><li>Oracle® Utilities Load Analysis – Performs peak load analysis, including coincidental peak demand analysis by customer rate class. This solution also balances premise level loads to system loads, incorporating variable,fixed losses and unaccounted for energy. </li></ul><ul><li>Oracle® Utilities Work and Asset Management – Provides complete asset lifecycle management, which can ultimately extend the life of aging assets, enable utilities to manage network renewal projects, and enhance cost control and visibility while improving system reliability and customer service. In addition, by monitoring and performing maintenance on a timely basis, utilities can reduce the environmental impact resulting from equipment failure. </li></ul><ul><li>Oracle® Utilities Mobile Workforce Management – Supports efforts to ensure service availability and automate field operations via dispatch, scheduling and routing. It provides field workers the optimal route with the least mileage and fewest truck rolls, which helps reduce fuel consumption, highway congestion and tailpipe emissions. </li></ul><ul><li>Oracle Utilities Meter Data Management – Provides a centralized, robust system to support smart grid and green initiatives by connecting AMI usage data and presentment tools, so consumers can view their usage – allowing them to make informed conservation decisions. Utilities can also configure the application to support demand response programs including: customer recruitment, event planning, event notification and compliance. </li></ul><ul><li>Oracle® Hyperion Performance Management applications and Oracle® Primavera applications – Leverage comprehensive performance and project management functionality to enable the planning, scheduling and installation of utility-controlled renewable devices – such as solar panels on homes and buildings. </li></ul><ul><li>Oracle Database – Scales to tackle exponential growth in data and enables utilities to more effectively manage network operational data to improve performance. </li></ul><ul><li>Oracle Governance, Risk and Compliance – Simplifies compliance with NERC (North American Electric Reliability Corporation) and FERC (U.S. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission) with an enterprise GRC platform for standards and policy documentation; risk-based assessment; and closed-loop remediation, certification, and reporting. Integrated controls monitoring also enforce segregation of duties to reduce the risk of improper access and fraudulent activities. </li></ul>
  91. 109. Smart Grid in Europe & France <ul><li>The industry said the EU's commitments to reduce CO2 emissions by 20% and produce 20% of total energy from renewable energy sources by 2020 would prove challenging for the electricity grid, requiring as much as 35% of electricity to come from renewables. Moreover, it expects the introduction of electric cars to put the grid under further pressure in future. </li></ul><ul><li>The EU's third energy liberalisation package, agreed in March, paves the way for smart grids by requiring member states to introduce smart meters that allow consumers to monitor their own electricity consumption in real time ( EurActiv 25/03/09 ). At least 80% of consumers should be equipped with intelligent metering systems by 2020. </li></ul><ul><li> </li></ul>In France, ERDF has launched a pilot with 300 000 smart meters “linky”
  92. 110. Smart 2020 <ul><li>Smart 2020 - Smart grids: Reducing T&D losses in India’s power sector by 30% is possible through better monitoring and management of electricity grids, first with smart meters and then by integrating more advanced ICTs into the so-called energy internet. Smart grid technologies were the largest opportunity found in the study and could globally reduce 2.03 GtCO2e , worth ¤79 billion ($124.6 billion). </li></ul>
  93. 111. Other links <ul><li>Energy Smart Miami – 200M invest over 2 years </li></ul><ul><li>European Technology platform - </li></ul><ul><li>Note : Grenoble is one of the European City involved in this project </li></ul><ul><li>UK - Winchester-based Arqiva , which provides communications systems, will use the smart metering technologies of Raleigh-based Sensus . Under the partnership, Arqiva will implement a long range radio-based communications network for British utilities. </li></ul><ul><li>Schneider-electric (Grenoble/France – 18B euros) – world leader of power distribution and control systems - buying Areva T&D, to reinforce its Smart Grid strategy - </li></ul>
  94. 112. European Technology Platform Ex: Working Group “Operations” -