The Presentation mainly focusses on the European Union's trade relations with the United States under Trump's administration

1. EU trade relations with the United States under the
Trump Administration
Vijay Kumar Modi

2.  EU and US consists of the 30% of the
world trade
 The United States and the European
Union have significant trade and
investment ties that evolved since
world war II.
 The Value of goods traded are
gradually increasing from €430 billion
in 2006 to €600 billion in 2016. A rise
of 170 billion in 10 years.
 The transatlantic economy is
dominant force for sure in the year
2018 the EU28 and US accounted for
nearly half of the worlds GDP.
 Supports 8 million people - this is
almost the population of New York
city or Austria
 Top 3 services that the EU imports
from the US - telecoms & business
services, travel and royalties &
licenses
 Top 3 goods that the EU exports to
the US - machinery & transport,
chemicals and manufactured articles

3. US Trade With Select Partners
Even though the rise of china and other emerging
countries and the other scenarios of BREXIT. The
US and EU will be each others largest trading
partners
 In the Year 2018 EU28 accounted for 22.4% ($1.3
trillion) of the U.S. total trade which nearly twice
that in the year 2003.
 The US-EU trade levels will change with the Exit
of UK from EU.
 U.S. goods and services trade with the EU totaled
nearly $1.3 trillion in 2018. Exports totaled $574
billion; Imports totaled $688 billion. The U.S.
goods and services trade deficit with the EU was
$114 billion in 2018.
Source: CRS, data from U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
Source: CRS, data from U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).

4. U.S. Trade in Goods with Europe

5. The US – EU
Foreign
Direct
Investment
Source: CRS, data from U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)
In 2018, the largest destinations in the EU28 for U.S. direct investment
were: the Netherlands ($883.2 billion), the UK ($757.8 billion),
Luxembourg ($713.8 billion), and Ireland ($442.2 billion). The largest
sources of FDI to the United States from the EU28 were the UK ($560.9
billion), the Netherlands ($479.0 billion), Luxembourg ($356.0 billion), and
Germany ($324.2 billion). The EU US FDI is more than half of world’s
Foreign Direct Investment.

7. Which
sectors
would be
most
vulnerable to
EU-US trade
war?

8. A trade war is when a nation imposes tariffs or quotas on imports and foreign countries retaliate
with similar forms of trade protectionism.
It starts when a nation attempts to protect its domestic industry and create jobs. In the short
run, it may work. Tariffs are supposed to give a competitive advantage to domestic producers of
that product.
U.S. trade deficit is $621 billion, It’s been the world’s largest since 1975. Reducing the deficit is
part of Trump’s strategy to create more jobs and this is what the reason for trumps trade war.
Decoding the Trump’s Trade war is so simple that the higher the Trade Deficit with a Country the
crucial the Trade War.

9. Moving back to 2017 this is how it started2017
April 20: The U.S. announces an investigation into whether steel and aluminum imports from the EU, China, and
elsewhere compromise national security.
2018
February 16: The U.S. Department of Commerce recommends that President Trump boost American production either by
imposing a tariff of 24 percent on all steel and aluminum imports, imposing higher tariffs on imports from specific
countries, or setting a quota on imports.
March 1: Trump tweets that ‘trade wars are good’ as he announces the U.S. is preparing to impose metal tariff plans.
March 8: Trump signs an order for a 25 percent tariff on steel imports and a 10 percent tariff on aluminum to come into
effect on May 1 but says exemptions will be negotiated.

10. EU’s Share in the Steel and
aluminum Trade
Steel and Aluminum
bumpers – $ 17.5 M
Steel Nails - $23.4M
Total EU share $42 million

11. Shouldn’t there by retaliations?? Of course there should be and here they are
!!!
March 3: Jean-Claude Juncker, President of the EU’s executive arm, the European
Commission (EC), responds. He announces that retaliatory measures to put tariffs on U.S.
products such as Kentucky bourbon, Levi jeans, and Harley-Davidson motorcycles are under
discussion.
Even though the US gave a temporary exemption for the EU they were implemented. The
talks have failed, and the EU filed the WTO challenge against the United States on June 1,
once the tariffs took effect.
(1) The initial rebalancing measures took effect on 22 June 2018 The EU imposed 25% of
tariff duty to around 180 products worth up to €2.8 billion in US exports. These include
agricultural (e.g. bourbon, orange juice, corn), industrial (mainly steel and aluminum
items) and manufactured goods (e.g. make-up, clothes, motorcycles, boats).
(2) After three years or after a positive WTO outcome, the EU will target an additional 150+
American products worth around €3.6 billion in US exports. These again include
agricultural, industrial and manufactured goods.
(3) The total amount of US exports that could eventually be targeted by the EU’s
rebalancing measures would correspond to the amount of EU steel and
aluminum exports hit by the US tariffs (based on 2017 figures).
Do you know? the
EU will retaliate
Do you know we
We will retaliate
I never expected
this !! Ohoo You
balanced it!!

12. The Car War!!!!
A renewing threat
June 21: The U.S. threatens to place a 20 percent tariff on cars assembled in Europe if the EU does not remove its own car-
related tariffs and trade barriers.
July 1: The EU warns that nearly US$300 billion of U.S. exports could be hit by retaliatory tariffs if the Trump
administration decides to penalize car imports from around the world.
July 25: At a White House meeting between Trump and Juncker, the U.S. lifts the metal tariffs on Europe and promises to
hold off on further tariffs. In return, Juncker says Europe will import more American soybeans and facilitate imports of
liquefied natural gas. The pair also vow that the U.S. and EU will work together toward ‘zero tariffs, zero non-tariff barriers,
and zero subsidies on non-auto industrial goods.
August 30: EU trade chief Cecilia Malmström says
Brussels is willing to scrap tariffs on all industrial
products, including cars, if the U.S. agrees to do the same.
August 31: The Trump administration rejects the EU’s offer
to scrap car tariffs.

13. Air War
2019
Feb 24: At a meeting with U.S. governors, Trump renews his threat to Brussels that the EU should ‘play ball’ in trade talks, or
‘we’re going to tariff the hell out of you.’
April 9: The U.S. announces plans to target US$25 billion of European exports with tariffs, as part of a dispute over what it
says are unfair EU subsidies to large European civil aircraft manufacturers, such as Airbus. Targeted items include cheeses
and wine, as well as helicopters and planes.
April 15: EU ambassadors finally authorize the EC to start trade talks with the U.S., following the Juncker–Trump agreement
in July 2018. The scope of agreed negotiating directives includes seeking to eliminate duties for industrial goods, excluding
agriculture.
April 16: Trump responds with a demand that trade talks with the EU open markets to U.S. farmers, or the U.S. will impose
tariffs on European car imports.
April 17: The EC says it wants to impose tariffs on about €20 billion (US$22 billion) of U.S. exports in retaliation for what it
says are ‘unlawful’ subsidies given by the U.S. to American aircraft manufacturer Boeing.

14. July 2: The U.S. announces it may impose new tariffs on about US$4 billion in goods from the EU. These primarily target
agricultural products, including coffee, cheese, meats, pasta, olives, and whiskeys.
July 26: Trump threatens to impose tariffs on French wine in retaliation for France’s decision to adopt a digital services tax.
The U.S. believes this tax will disproportionately hit leading American technology companies such as Amazon, Apple,
Facebook, and Google.
October 2: the World Trade Organization (WTO) allowed the U.S. to set duties on $7.5 billion worth of European Union
goods(Focusing on Wine and Airbus) because of the long-running legal battle over subsidies to Airbus.
The five products high on the US tariff list are: new aircraft with manufacturer's empty weight of more than 30,000 kilograms
and other non-military aircraft (worth $1.6 billion) originating from Britain, France, Germany and Spain; textile products
(worth up to $1.58 billion) from Britain; olive oil and other olive products (worth $1.55 billion); frozen pork, fresh cheese and
olive products (worth $570 million); and liqueur (worth $550 million).
December 2: The World Trade Organization on Monday rejected European Union claims that it no longer provides subsidies
to plane maker Airbus prompting the United States to say it could increase retaliatory tariffs on a wider range of European
goods.
A new compliance report from the Geneva trade watchdog found that the Airbus A380 and A350 jetliners continue to be
subsidized as a result of past European government loans.
March 12: 2020
Washington state repeals pro-Boeing tax break; U.S. hopes to avoid EU tariffs
The War Continues

15. Who Gained from the Trade
War??