3. It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age
of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of
belief, it was the epoch of incredulity, it was the season of
Light, it was the season of Darkness, it was the spring of hope, it
was the winter of despair, we had everything before us, we had
nothing before us, we were all going direct to heaven, we were
all going direct the other way - in short, the period was so far like
the present period, that some of its noisiest authorities insisted
on its being received, for good or for evil, in the superlative
degree of comparison only.
Charles Dickens, A Tale of Two Cities
English novelist (1812 - 1870)
4. Things We Will Not Discuss
• Ben Bernanke
• The Global Economy
• Janet Louise Yellen
• Income Inequality
• The National Debt
• Student Debt
• Sequestration
• Spending and Taxes
• Retirement
• The Next Recession
5. Things We Will Discuss
• Quantitative Easing
• Interest Rates
• Real Estate Bubbles
• Economic Outlook for 2014 – what can
we expect from the housing market in
the coming year?
14. Local Economic Questions to Address Regarding Real Estate
•
What would a “full recovery” look like? How does this differ
from the recent peak?
•
Is the significant increase in home prices over the last two
years healthy for the Valley RE market?
•
What industries are attracting newcomers to the area? Who
are these newcomers?
•
Are there specific groups of people driving the growth? For
instance, is there an increase in single females, young
couples, seniors, etc.
17. Certain information, charts, and data for this presentation comes from the following sources:
Monsoonwealth.com - http://monsoonwealth.com
CalculatedRISK - http://www.calculatedriskblog.com
St Louis Federal Reserve - http://www.stlouisfed.org
John Mauldin - http://www.mauldineconomics.com/ttmygh/chekhovs-gun
Zero Hedge - http://www.zerohedge.com/ via http://www.mauldineconomics.com
The Wall Street Journal - http://online.wsj.com via http://www.mauldineconomics.com
Bill Fleckenstein - https://www.fleckensteincapital.com via http://www.mauldineconomics.com
Bloomberg - http://www.bloomberg.com via http://www.mauldineconomics.com
Bankrate.com - http://www.bankrate.com via http://www.mauldineconomics.com
Business Insider - http://www.businessinsider.com/
18. Monsoon
Wealth Management
Marvin R. Clark
Managing Principal
Chief Economist and Strategist
www.monsoonwealth.com
info@monsoonwealth.com
866.931.1846
480.319.7724
Preserving tomorrow’s wealth by managing today’s global economic risk.
Disclaimer: The material appearing in this email is based on data and information from sources
we believe to be accurate and reliable. However, the material is not guaranteed as to accuracy nor
does it purport to be complete. Opinions and projections, both our own and those of
others, reflect views as of dates indicated and are subject to change without notice. The
contributions and opinions of others do not necessarily reflect the views of Marvin Clark or
Monsoon Wealth Management. Nothing appearing in this email should be considered a
recommendation to buy or to sell any security or related financial instrument. Investors should
discuss any investment with their personal investment counsel. Past performance does not
guarantee future results.
Editor's Notes
In September 2012 that average rate stood at around 3.60%, but a year later it was 4.5%. Now I know that doesn't sound like much, but a 25% increase in the cost of a mortgage will most definitely crimp activity.(MBA): Mortgage applications decreased 13.5 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending September 6, 2013. This week’s results included an adjustment for the Labor Day holiday....
Bill McBride, (Calculated Risk): The refinance index is down 71% since early May. The last time the index declined like this was in late 2010 and early 2011 when mortgages increased sharply with the Ten Year Treasury rising from 2.5% to 3.5%. We've seen an even larger increase over the last few months with the Ten Year Treasury yield up from 1.6% to over 2.96% today. We will probably see the refinance index back to 2000 levels soon.
