Indian Economic Dashboard

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India Economic Digest
Monthly Dashboard of Leading India Economic Indicators
February 2011

© 2012 The Corporate Executive Board Company. All Rights Reserved.
February 15, 2011
The Indian economy is expected to expand by 7.0% in the current financial year ending
March 2012, as economists revised their projection after a slow third quarter and due to
falling industrial production growth rates. Business sentiments appeared positive as the
PMI climbed further to an eight month high of 57.5, indicating a growing expansion rate.
However, industrial production growth slowed down to 1.8% in December on year-on-year
basis as export orders shrank. Both imports and exports grew at below average rates of
19.8% and 6.7% respectively in December ,on YoY basis. Inflationary pressure eased
substantially as inflation hit a 26 month low to touch 6.5% in December leading to
anticipations of a rate cut by the central bank. WPI growth also dropped to 7.5% in the
same period on YoY basis. The Rupee gained 4.8% against the USD and strengthened
against the Euro by 0.6% in the last 30 days. The central bank sold the maximum amount
of dollars in December over the last 30 months to curb the rupee’s fall. Other highlights
include:
 Indian equity markets recorded foreign investment of $2 billion in January.
 Auto Sales increased by 9.6% in December.
2
Featured Leading Indicators:
1. Country Risk Indicators .......................... Page 3
2. Trade & Exchange Rate Indicators ........ Page 4
3. Production Indicators ............................. Page 5
4. Software Services Export ...................... Page 6
5. Consumer & Investor Sentiment ............ Page 7
6. Price & Inflation ...................................... Page 8
7. Financial Indicators ................................ Page 9
8. Foreign Investment Indicators .............. Page 10
9. The Economy in the News ................... Page 11
10. Glossary ............................................. Page 12
Real GDP Growth, YoY %
Executive Summary
Actual GDP, 9/30/2011,
6.9
Average; 8.4
0.0
3.0
6.0
9.0
12.0
Mar-06
Jun-06
Sep-06
Dec-06
Mar-07
Jun-07
Sep-07
Dec-07
Mar-08
Jun-08
Sep-08
Dec-08
Mar-09
Jun-09
Sep-09
Dec-09
Mar-10
Jun-10
Sep-10
Dec-10
Mar-11
Jun-11
Sep-11

For the current fiscal year 2011-12, forecasters revised their GDP growth projections to 7.0% from 7.9% amid the global slowdown and tightening
monetary policies. All bond yields virtually remained unchanged over the past month and hovered around similar values.
3
Country Risk Indicators
Government Securities Yield, %
Sources: Bloomberg; Corporate Executive Board research.
2/10/2012; 8.1
2/10/2012; 8.2
2/10/2012; 8.3
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
Oct-06
Dec-06
Feb-07
Apr-07
Jun-07
Aug-07
Oct-07
Dec-07
Feb-08
Apr-08
Jun-08
Aug-08
Oct-08
Dec-08
Feb-09
Apr-09
Jun-09
Aug-09
Oct-09
Dec-09
Feb-10
Apr-10
Jun-10
Aug-10
Oct-10
Dec-10
Feb-11
Apr-11
Jun-11
Aug-11
Oct-11
Dec-11
Feb-12
1 Year Yield 5 Year Yield 10 Year Yield
Country India Russia Brazil China Mexico
United
Kingdom
Australia
Actual 2010 GDP Growth Rate (%) 8.5 4.3 7.5 10.4 5.5 1.6 2.7
Estimated 2011 GDP Growth Rate (%)* 7.0 4.3* 3.0 9.2* 3.8 0.9 2.0
Bond Rating BBB- BBB BBB AA- BBB AAA AAA
* Actual 2011 GDP growth
1 2011 GDPforecasts are the median estimated growth rates from Bloomberg surveyof
economistsexcept for India, where the median estimatesfrom Reserve Bank of Indiasurveyof
professional forecastersare used.

4
Trade & Exchange Rate Indicators
India’s exports grew by 6.7% in December on YoY basis, while Imports registered a growth rate of 19.8% on YoY basis in the same period. The Indian
Rupee strengthened against the US Dollar by a margin of 4.8% and also against the Euro by 0.6% in the last 30 days.
Exports Growth, YoY % Imports Growth, YoY %
Exchange Rate (US Dollar Vs. Indian Rupee) Exchange Rate (Euro Vs. Indian Rupee)
Average; 21.4 Exports,
12/31/2011, 6.7
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
Apr-07
Jun-07
Aug-07
Oct-07
Dec-07
Feb-08
Apr-08
Jun-08
Aug-08
Oct-08
Dec-08
Feb-09
Apr-09
Jun-09
Aug-09
Oct-09
Dec-09
Feb-10
Apr-10
Jun-10
Aug-10
Oct-10
Dec-10
Feb-11
Apr-11
Jun-11
Aug-11
Oct-11
Dec-11
Average; 21.4 Imports,
12/31/2011, 19.8
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
Apr-07
Jun-07
Aug-07
Oct-07
Dec-07
Feb-08
Apr-08
Jun-08
Aug-08
Oct-08
Dec-08
Feb-09
Apr-09
Jun-09
Aug-09
Oct-09
Dec-09
Feb-10
Apr-10
Jun-10
Aug-10
Oct-10
Dec-10
Feb-11
Apr-11
Jun-11
Aug-11
Oct-11
Dec-11
USD FX;
2/10/2012; 49.41
Average; 45.14
30
35
40
45
50
55
Nov-06
Feb-07
May-07
Aug-07
Nov-07
Feb-08
May-08
Aug-08
Nov-08
Feb-09
May-09
Aug-09
Nov-09
Feb-10
May-10
Aug-10
Nov-10
Feb-11
May-11
Aug-11
Nov-11
Feb-12
Exports registered a grow th of 6.7% in December
on YoY basis.
Imports registered a grow th of 19.8% in December
on YoY basis.
The US Dollar w eakened by 4.8% against the Rupee
in the last 30 days.
The Euro w eakened by 0.6% against the Rupee in
the last 30 days.

Business sentiment appeared to improve as the Purchasing Managers’ Index climbed to an eight month high of 57.5 in January. Industrial production
growth slowed to 1.8% in December on YoY basis as compared to 5.9% in November. The infrastructure index rose by 6.7% in November and
production of consumer goods increased by 10% in December.
Production Indicators
Industrial Production, YoY % Infrastructure Industries* Index, YoY %
Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index IIP: Consumer Goods, YoY %
*Crude Petroleum, Petroleum Refinery Products, Coal, Electricity, Cement & Finished Steel
Average; 7.5
Ind Prod;
12/31/2011; 1.8
-12
-8
-4
0
4
8
12
16
20
24
Apr-07
Jun-07
Aug-07
Oct-07
Dec-07
Feb-08
Apr-08
Jun-08
Aug-08
Oct-08
Dec-08
Feb-09
Apr-09
Jun-09
Aug-09
Oct-09
Dec-09
Feb-10
Apr-10
Jun-10
Aug-10
Oct-10
Dec-10
Feb-11
Apr-11
Jun-11
Aug-11
Oct-11
Dec-11
Average; 5.2
Infrastructure
Index;
11/30/2011; 6.7
0
3
6
9
12
15
Feb-07
May-07
Aug-07
Nov-07
Feb-08
May-08
Aug-08
Nov-08
Feb-09
May-09
Aug-09
Nov-09
Feb-10
May-10
Aug-10
Nov-10
Feb-11
May-11
Aug-11
Nov-11
Average; 55.5
PMI; 1/31/2012;
57.5
40
45
50
55
60
65
Apr-07
Jul-07
Oct-07
Jan-08
Apr-08
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
Average; 8.4
Consumer
Goods,
12/31/2011, 10.0
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Jun-07
Sep-07
Dec-07
Mar-08
Jun-08
Sep-08
Dec-08
Mar-09
Jun-09
Sep-09
Dec-09
Mar-10
Jun-10
Sep-10
Dec-10
Mar-11
Jun-11
Sep-11
Dec-11
Industrial production increased by 1.8% in
December froma year ago.
The infrastructure index grew by 6.7% in November
on YoY basis.
The purchasing managers' index increased to 57.5
in January.
Production of consumer goods rose by 10.0% in
December on YoY basis.

6
Software Services Export
There has been no update on software services exports since the last edition.
Software Services Exports
Million US Dollar
Growth, YoY%;
9/30/2011; 25.5
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
0
3000
6000
9000
12000
15000
18000
Mar-07
Jun-07
Sep-07
Dec-07
Mar-08
Jun-08
Sep-08
Dec-08
Mar-09
Jun-09
Sep-09
Dec-09
Mar-10
Jun-10
Sep-10
Dec-10
Mar-11
Jun-11
Sep-11
Software Exports Growth, YoY%
Softw are exports totaled $14.9 billion in Q3 2011, a
YoY grow th of 25.5%.

7
Consumer & Investor Sentiment
Domestic automobile sales growth increased as it registered a year-on-year growth of 9.6% in January, owing to a 13.6% increase in two wheeler
sales. The volatility index decreased to 22.7 in the month of January.
India Volatility Index
Domestic Automobile Sales, YoY %
Average; 11.3
Auto Sales;
1/31/2012; 9.6
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
Apr-07
Jul-07
Oct-07
Jan-08
Apr-08
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
India VIX;
1/31/2012; 22.7
1 St. Dev.
Bollinger Band
0
20
40
60
80
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
Domestic automobile sales registered a grow th of
9.6% in January on YoY basis.
The volatility index declined to 22.7 in January.

8
Price & Inflation
Inflationary pressure eased substantially in December as CPI growth dropped to 6.5% on YoY basis. Wholesale price index growth also fell to 7.5% in
December on year-on-year basis . Easing inflationary pressure has risen hopes of a rate cut in the near future by the central bank.
Consumer Price Index, YoY %
Wholesale Price Index, YoY %
Average; 9.9
CPI, 12/31/2011, 6.5
0
4
8
12
16
20
Dec-07
Mar-08
Jun-08
Sep-08
Dec-08
Mar-09
Jun-09
Sep-09
Dec-09
Mar-10
Jun-10
Sep-10
Dec-10
Mar-11
Jun-11
Sep-11
Dec-11
Average; 7.0 WPI, 12/31/2011, 7.5
-3
0
3
6
9
12
Mar-07
Jun-07
Sep-07
Dec-07
Mar-08
Jun-08
Sep-08
Dec-08
Mar-09
Jun-09
Sep-09
Dec-09
Mar-10
Jun-10
Sep-10
Dec-10
Mar-11
Jun-11
Sep-11
Dec-11
Consumer price index registered a grow th of 6.5%
in December on YoY basis.
Wholesale prices increased by 7.5% in December
on YoY basis.

Commercial Loans Outstanding, YoY %
9
Financial Indicators
The NSE Nifty gained 12.2% in the last month. The three month MIBOR rate increased to 9.92%. Outstanding commercial loans dropped further to
16.4% in January on year-on-year basis. Money supply growth bounced back from its long term low and climbed to 3.2% in December on YoY basis.
NSE S&P CNX Nifty Index Three Month MIBOR Rate
Money Supply (M2), YoY %
Average; 4746
Nifty; 2/5/2012;
5326
0
1500
3000
4500
6000
7500
Feb-07
May-07
Aug-07
Nov-07
Feb-08
May-08
Aug-08
Nov-08
Feb-09
May-09
Aug-09
Nov-09
Feb-10
May-10
Aug-10
Nov-10
Feb-11
May-11
Aug-11
Nov-11
Feb-12
Average; 8.1
MIBOR;
2/10/2012; 9.92
0
3
6
9
12
15
Nov-06
Feb-07
May-07
Aug-07
Nov-07
Feb-08
May-08
Aug-08
Nov-08
Feb-09
May-09
Aug-09
Nov-09
Feb-10
May-10
Aug-10
Nov-10
Feb-11
May-11
Aug-11
Nov-11
Feb-12
Average; 14.1
M2; 12/31/2011;
3.2
0
3
6
9
12
15
18
21
24
Mar-07
Jun-07
Sep-07
Dec-07
Mar-08
Jun-08
Sep-08
Dec-08
Mar-09
Jun-09
Sep-09
Dec-09
Mar-10
Jun-10
Sep-10
Dec-10
Mar-11
Jun-11
Sep-11
Dec-11
Average; 21.0
Commercial
Loans;
1/27/2012; 16.4
0
10
20
30
40
Apr-07
Jul-07
Oct-07
Jan-08
Apr-08
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
The NSENifty has gained 12.2% in the last 30 days.
The MIBOR rate has increased to 9.9% in the last 30
days.
Money supply registered a grow th of 3.2% in
December on YoY basis.
Outstanding commercial loans registered a grow th
of 16.4% in January on YoY basis.

10
Foreign Investment Indicators
India recorded a net foreign direct investment of $2.5billion in November. Further, net foreign investment in India Equity Market experienced an
inflow of $2.0 billion in January. External Commercial Borrowing data has not been updated since the last edition.
Foreign Direct Investment
Million US Dollar
Net Foreign Investment in India Equity Market
Million US Dollar
External Commercial Borrowing
Million US Dollar
Average; 2,086
FDI Inflow;
11/30/2011;
2,538
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
Feb-07
May-07
Aug-07
Nov-07
Feb-08
May-08
Aug-08
Nov-08
Feb-09
May-09
Aug-09
Nov-09
Feb-10
May-10
Aug-10
Nov-10
Feb-11
May-11
Aug-11
Nov-11
Average; 908
Net Foreign
Investment;
1/31/2012; 2,037
-4000
-2000
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
Apr-07
Jul-07
Oct-07
Jan-08
Apr-08
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
Average; 2,118
External
Borrowing;
9/30/2011; 2,362
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
Dec-06
Mar-07
Jun-07
Sep-07
Dec-07
Mar-08
Jun-08
Sep-08
Dec-08
Mar-09
Jun-09
Sep-09
Dec-09
Mar-10
Jun-10
Sep-10
Dec-10
Mar-11
Jun-11
Sep-11
Net FDI inflow s totaled $2.5 billion in November.
Indian markets recorded a net foreign investment of
$2.0 billion in January.
Indian companies raised $2.4 billion in September
through external commercial borrow ing.

11
The Economy in the News
Rupee Strengthens as Slowing Inflation Spurs Inflow Optimism
(Bloomberg) Feb 15 - India’s rupee strengthened after inflation eased to the slowest pace in more than two years, boosting demand for the
nation’s assets.
India Inflation Cools to Slowest Pace in 26 Months; Bonds, Stocks Advance
(Bloomberg) Feb 14 - Indian inflation eased to the lowest level in more than two years in January, adding to the central bank’s case to
cut interest rates as economic growth weakens. Bonds and stocks climbed.
India Sells Most Dollars in Three Years to Stem Rupee Decline
(Bloomberg) Feb 13 - India’s central bank sold the most foreign currency in three years in December, official data showed, as the rupee plunged
to a record against the dollar.
India Predicts Weakest Economic Growth Since 2009, Adding to Rate-Cut Case
(Bloomberg) Feb 7 - India’s government predicted the weakest economic expansion this year since 2009, adding pressure on the central bank
to reduce interest rates.
Foreign Investors Buy Net 11 Billion Rupees of Indian Stocks
(Bloomberg) Feb 7 - Overseas investors bought a net 11 billion rupees ($226.9 million) of Indian equities yesterday, raising their investment in
the equities this year to 173.1 billion rupees, according to the nation’s market regulator.
Business confidence has declined: CII survey
(IANS) Jan 29 - Uncertainty surrounding the global economy, rising inputs cost and high interest rates had led to a decline in business
confidence during the quarter that ended Dec 2011, says a survey by the Confederation of Indian Industry (CII).
India PMI: a promising sign
(FT) Feb 1 - For the second month in a row, Indian manufacturing picked up strongly on the back of new orders and output growth.

12
Glossary
 Gross Domestic Product - Gross domestic product includes the total income of everyone in the economy or the total expenditure on the
economy's goods and services. GDP includes only the value of final goods and services. Compiled quarterly by the Central Statistical
Organization, India.
 Index of Industrial Production (IIP) - The Index of Industrial Production (IIP) conveys the status of production in the industrial sector of an
economy in a given period of time, in comparison with a fixed reference point in the past. The IIP numbers, released every month in India use
1993-94 as the base year for comparison. Compiled on a monthly basis by Central Statistical Organization, India.
 Infrastructure Industries Index - The index comprises of six core-infrastructure industries: crude petroleum, petroleum refinery products,
coal, electricity, cement & finished steel, and has a combined weight of 26.7 per cent in the Index of Industrial Production with base 1993-94.
It is published monthly by the Ministry of Commerce and Industry, India.
 Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) - The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is a composite index based on five of the individual indexes
with the following weights: New Orders - 0.3, Output - 0.25, Employment - 0.2, Suppliers’ Delivery Times - 0.15, Stock of Items Purchased -
0.1, with the Delivery Times index inverted so that it moves in a comparable direction. Compiled monthly by HSBC & Markit.
 Software Service Exports - This is the net value of software services exports reported under invisibles in the balance of payments (current
account). This data is released by the Reserve Bank of India on a quarterly basis.
 Consumer Confidence Index - The index is a monthly barometer of the opinion of Indian consumers regarding the current state and future
expectations of the macro economy, household financial conditions and consumption. It is compiled monthly by CNBC TV18 and Boston
Analytics.
 Domestic Automobile Sales - This consists of total sales of passenger cars and motorcycles in the Indian domestic market. Compiled
monthly by Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers.
 Consumer Price Index - Consumer price index (CPI) is a statistical estimate of the level of prices of goods and services bought for
consumption purposes by households and is calculated by the Ministry of Labour, India.
 Wholesale Price Index - This is the index that is used to measure the change in the average price level of goods traded in wholesale
market. A total of 435 commodities data on price level is tracked. The Wholesale Price Index (WPI) is the most widely used price index in
India. Published by the Central Statistical Organization, India.

13
Glossary (continued 2)
 NSE S&P CNX Nifty - S&P CNX Nifty is a well diversified 50 stock index accounting for 22 sectors of the economy. It is used for a variety of
purposes such as benchmarking fund portfolios, index based derivatives and index funds.
 Mumbai Inter-Bank Offer Rate (MIBOR) - The MIBOR rate is used as a bench mark rate for majority of deals struck for Interest Rate
Swaps, Forward Rate Agreements, Floating Rate Debentures and Term Deposits. Compiled by the National Stock Exchange, India.
 Money Supply (M2) Change - M2 is a measure of money supply. It consists of currency, demand deposits, and other checkable deposits,
savings deposits, and retail money funds. It is compiled monthly by the Reserve Bank of India.
 Commercial Loans Outstanding - This is the YoY growth in outstanding credit to commercial sector from commercial banks in India. It is
published on a monthly basis by the Reserve Bank of India.
 India Volatility Index - India VIX is a volatility index based on the Nifty 50 Index Option Prices. From the best bid-ask prices of Nifty 50
Option contracts, a volatility figure (%) is calculated which indicates the expected market volatility over the next 30 calendar days.
 External Commercial Borrowings - External Commercial Borrowings are total foreign currency borrowings raised by the Indian
corporations from confirmed banking sources outside India. The borrowings encompass commercial bank loans, buyers’ credit, suppliers’
credit, securitized instruments such as floating rate notes and fixed rate bonds, credit from official export credit agencies, foreign currency
convertible bonds and commercial borrowings from the private sector lending arms of multilateral financial institutions. It is published on a
monthly basis by the Reserve Bank of India.

CORPORATE EXECUTIVE BOARD
WWW.EXECUTIVEBOARD.COM
™
Mayank Prakash Research Associate
Jian Chen Director
Oleg Polishchuk Senior Director
Michael Griffin Executive Director
The Quantitative Research Team has worked to ensure the accuracy of the information it
provides to the Corporate Executive Board members. This project relies upon data obtained from
many sources, however, and the Quantitative Research Team cannot guarantee the accuracy of
the information or its analysis in all cases. Furthermore, the Quantitative Research Team is not
engaged in rendering legal, accounting, or other professional services. Its projects should not be
construed as professional advice on any particular set of facts or circumstances. Members
requiring such services are advised to consult an appropriate professional. Neither Corporate
Executive Board nor its programs are responsible for any claims or losses that may arise from
any errors or omissions in their reports, whether caused by Corporate Executive Board or its
sources.
Professional Services Note
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