The document provides a summary of the Vector Load Report, which forecasts ERCOT's 4-day load projections. It notes that the report format is changing to a subscription model and provides an overview of the general load forecasts, deviations from historical averages, and risk indicators for each congestion zone. It also describes options for customizing the forecasts to individual company load profiles and schedules.

1. Vector Load Report
Mark B. Johnson, Sr.
Principal—Vector Group Services
We will be moving to a subscription only format for the Vector
Load Report soon. Formats and content may still be changing
depending on our feedback. This report is designed to provide a
“fast and friendly” summary of forecasted load. ERCOT provides 4‐
day load forecasts by load profile for each weather zone. ERCOT
releases their forecast each morning between 4 and 5AM. We ask
you to forward the report to folks in your load forecasting and
scheduling groups. We also appreciate any feedback. If you find
this report helpful and would like more information, please don’t
hesitate to call and talk with us: 972‐370‐1515 or email:
mark@vector‐group.com. 
GENERAL OVERVIEW:
All areas are showing higher‐than‐historic load on Feb24, due
primarily to relatively cold weather. The weekend drops back into
a more normal range on the 26
th
and 27
th
. Note that the 4‐Day
Deviations page which now shows column charts in addition to the
deviation line.
4‐DAY ERCOT LOAD FORECAST:
This section is actually
2 pages: The 4‐day
Forecast (Black Line)
vs. Historical (grey
area) for each
congestion zone. The
second page shows
the forecast deviation in percentage (dark line), plus a column
chart (secondary axis on the right). These bars represent the
historic average (last 3 years) of MCPE by hour. Higher values
indicate that period typically was among the most expensive hours
of the day over the last three years, while the lower values indicate
that period had been among the least expensive hours of the day
historically. In combination with the deviations line, this should be
a helpful risk indicator.
High deviations in
periods of historically
high MCPE would be
more financially risky
than low or negative
deviations for hours of
historically low MCPE.
Positive values indicate
the forecast is expected
to be higher than
historical averages, and
negative values indicate the forecast is expected to be lower than
historical averages. All charts are by hour of the day.
GENERAL RISK:
The chart at right is
designed to provide
a single view of
overall forecast &
MCPE risk for a
particular day.
DAY1 FORECASTED LOAD BY CMZ:
This page breaks the forecast for Day1 (current day) into
component load by weather zone. The congestion zones are on
the left, and the weather zones
are on the same horizontal
band to the right of the CMZ
chart. The weather zones
shown represent at least 90%
of the load in that CMZ. For
example: Almost 100% of
Houston CMZ is in Coastal
weather zone. North CMZ is
94% composed of NorthCentral
and East weather zones.
FORECAST vs. BACKCAST LOAD:
The first look at “actual” load is published by ERCOT as “backcast”
load. This is not actual measured load but is modeled using actual
weather. This page tracks the load forecast against the backcast
published two days later. The blue area represents the forecast,
while the dark line represents the “actual” backcasted load. The
charts to the right display the
% deviation from the forecast.
Positive values indicate that
the “actual” is higher than the
forecast. Negative values
indicate that the “actual” was
lower. This can be used to get
a feeling for how accurate the
forecast has been for the most
recent actual measurement.
CUSTOMIZATION OPTIONS:
These forecasts have been constructed from ERCOT‐wide profile
counts, and may not represent your own customer base. This can
be compared against your own scheduled load to adjust your
scheduled load and to minimize risk exposure. We plan to offer a
custom version of this report for companies interested in that as an
option. This forecast is strictly based on ERCOT modeled data. We
may be able to work with you or with a 3rd
party vendor to use
forecasts with a longer horizon than the 4 day default. Let us know
if you’re interested. One more important note: These forecasts do
not contain any expansion because of Transmission or Distribution
loss, nor for UFE. These factors differ by market participant and
should be applied for your own company.
Feb24 Feb25 Feb26 Feb27
HOU
NOR
SOU
WES
GENERAL RISK INDICATOR
Volume BETA, Issue 47 February 24, 2016
TODAY’S OUTLOOK:
© 2016 Vector Group Services – All Rights Reserved Page 1

2. 4-DAY ERCOT LOAD FORECASTVector Group Services
HOUSTON CMZ
1 2 3 4
DAY 1 - HOUSTONCMZ - FEB-24 DAY 2 - HOUSTONCMZ - FEB-25 DAY 3 - HOUSTONCMZ - FEB-26 DAY 4 - HOUSTONCMZ - FEB-27
Thousands of MWh Thousands of MWh Thousands of MWh Thousands of MWh
NORTH CMZ
5 6 7 8
DAY 1 - NORTHCMZ - FEB-24 DAY 2 - NORTHCMZ - FEB-25 DAY 3 - NORTHCMZ - FEB-26 DAY 4 - NORTHCMZ - FEB-27
Thousands of MWh Thousands of MWh Thousands of MWh Thousands of MWh
SOUTH CMZ
.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
1:00 4 8 12 16 20 24:00
.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
1:00 4 8 12 16 20 24:00
.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
1:00 4 8 12 16 20 24:00
.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
1:00 4 8 12 16 20 24:00
.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
1:00 4 8 12 16 20 24:00
.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
1:00 4 8 12 16 20 24:00
.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
1:00 4 8 12 16 20 24:00
.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
1:00 4 8 12 16 20 24:00
© 2010 - Vector Group Services
All Rights Reserved HTTP://WWW.VECTOR-GROUP.COM
SOUTH CMZ
9 10 11 12
DAY 1 - SOUTHCMZ - FEB-24 DAY 2 - SOUTHCMZ - FEB-25 DAY 3 - SOUTHCMZ - FEB-26 DAY 4 - SOUTHCMZ - FEB-27
Thousands of MWh Thousands of MWh Thousands of MWh Thousands of MWh
WEST CMZ
13 14 15 16
DAY 1 - WESTCMZ - FEB-24 DAY 2 - WESTCMZ - FEB-25 DAY 3 - WESTCMZ - FEB-26 DAY 4 - WESTCMZ - FEB-27
Thousands of MWh Thousands of MWh Thousands of MWh Thousands of MWh
Daily Report
.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
1:00 4 8 12 16 20 24:00
.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
1:00 4 8 12 16 20 24:00
.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
1:00 4 8 12 16 20 24:00
.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
1:00 4 8 12 16 20 24:00
.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
1:00 4 8 12 16 20 24:00
.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
1:00 4 8 12 16 20 24:00
.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
1:00 4 8 12 16 20 24:00
.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
1:00 4 8 12 16 20 24:00
.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
1:00 4 8 12 16 20 24:00
.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
1:00 4 8 12 16 20 24:00
.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
1:00 4 8 12 16 20 24:00
.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
1:00 4 8 12 16 20 24:00
.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
1:00 4 8 12 16 20 24:00
.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
1:00 4 8 12 16 20 24:00
.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
1:00 4 8 12 16 20 24:00
2.4
2.6
2.8
3.0
3.2
3.4
1:00 4 8 12 16 20 24:00
DATA RUN - February 24, 2016 04:28 A
© 2016 - Vector Group Services
All Rights Reserved HTTP://WWW.VECTOR-GROUP.COM

3. 4-DAY ERCOT LOAD FORECASTVector Group Services
HOUSTON CMZ
1 2 3 4
DAY 1 - HOUSTONCMZ - FEB-24 DAY 2 - HOUSTONCMZ - FEB-25 DAY 3 - HOUSTONCMZ - FEB-26 DAY 4 - HOUSTONCMZ - FEB-27
% Deviation from Hist % Deviation from Hist % Deviation from Hist % Deviation from Hist
NORTH CMZ
5 6 7 8
DAY 1 - NORTHCMZ - FEB-24 DAY 2 - NORTHCMZ - FEB-25 DAY 3 - NORTHCMZ - FEB-26 DAY 4 - NORTHCMZ - FEB-27
% Deviation from Hist % Deviation from Hist % Deviation from Hist % Deviation from Hist
SOUTH CMZ
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
1:00 4 8 12 16 20 24:00
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
1:00 4 8 12 16 20 24:00
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
1:00 4 8 12 16 20 24:00
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
1:00 4 8 12 16 20 24:00
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
1:00 4 8 12 16 20 24:00
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
1:00 4 8 12 16 20 24:00
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
1:00 4 8 12 16 20 24:00
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
1:00 4 8 12 16 20 24:00
SOUTH CMZ
9 10 11 12
DAY 1 - SOUTHCMZ - FEB-24 DAY 2 - SOUTHCMZ - FEB-25 DAY 3 - SOUTHCMZ - FEB-26 DAY 4 - SOUTHCMZ - FEB-27
% Deviation from Hist % Deviation from Hist % Deviation from Hist % Deviation from Hist
WEST CMZ
13 14 15 16
DAY 1 - WESTCMZ - FEB-24 DAY 2 - WESTCMZ - FEB-25 DAY 3 - WESTCMZ - FEB-26 DAY 4 - WESTCMZ - FEB-27
% Deviation from Hist % Deviation from Hist % Deviation from Hist % Deviation from Hist
Daily Report
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
1:00 4 8 12 16 20 24:00
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
1:00 4 8 12 16 20 24:00
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
1:00 4 8 12 16 20 24:00
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
1:00 4 8 12 16 20 24:00
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
1:00 4 8 12 16 20 24:00
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
1:00 4 8 12 16 20 24:00
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
1:00 4 8 12 16 20 24:00
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
1:00 4 8 12 16 20 24:00
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
1:00 4 8 12 16 20 24:00
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
1:00 4 8 12 16 20 24:00
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
1:00 4 8 12 16 20 24:00
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
1:00 4 8 12 16 20 24:00
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
1:00 4 8 12 16 20 24:00
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
1:00 4 8 12 16 20 24:00
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
1:00 4 8 12 16 20 24:00
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
-14%
-12%
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
1:00 4 8 12 16 20 24:00
DATA RUN - February 24, 2016 04:28 A
© 2016 - Vector Group Services
All Rights Reserved http://www.vector-group.com

4. Vector Group Services
HOUSTON CMZ WEATHER ZONE DETAIL
1 2 3
HOUSTON CMZ COAST WZ
% DEV FROM HIST. AVG. % DEV FROM HIST. AVG.
NORTH CMZ WEATHER ZONE DETAIL
4 5 6
NORTH CMZ NCENT WZ EAST WZ
% DEV FROM HIST. AVG. % DEV FROM HIST. AVG. % DEV FROM HIST. AVG.
SOUTH CMZ WEATHER ZONE DETAIL
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
1A 6A 12P 6P 12A
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
1A 6A 12P 6P 12A
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
1A 6A 12P 6P 12A
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
1A 4A 8A 12P 4P 8P 12A
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
1A 4A 8A 12P 4P 8P 12A
The weather zones shown with each congestion zone
account for more than 90% of the total load for that
congestion zone.
For example, NCENT WZ and EAST WZ comprise
94.1% of NORTH CMZ.
Positive values indicate Forecast is higher than
historic average, Negatives indicate Forecast is lower
than historic average.
© 2010 - Vector Group Services
All Rights Reserved http://www.vector-group.com
SOUTH CMZ WEATHER ZONE DETAIL
7 8 9 10 11
SOUTH CMZ SOUTH WZ NCENT WZ SCENT WZ COAST WZ
% DEV FROM HIST. AVG. % DEV FROM HIST. AVG. % DEV FROM HIST. AVG. % DEV FROM HIST. AVG. % DEV FROM HIST. AVG.
WEST CMZ WEATHER ZONE DETAIL
11 12 13
WEST CMZ FWEST WZ WEST WZ
% DEV FROM HIST. AVG. % DEV FROM HIST. AVG. % DEV FROM HIST. AVG.
DAILY REPORT
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
1A 6A 12P 6P 12A
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
1A 6A 12P 6P 12A
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
1A 6A 12P 6P 12A
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
1A 6A 12P 6P 12A
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
1A 6A 12P 6P 12A
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
1A 4A 8A 12P 4P 8P 12A
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
1A 4A 8A 12P 4P 8P 12A
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
1A 4A 8A 12P 4P 8P 12A
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
1A 4A 8A 12P 4P 8P 12A
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
1A 6A 12P 6P 12A
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
1A 6A 12P 6P 12A
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
1A 6A 12P 6P 12A
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
1A 6A 12P 6P 12A
The weather zones shown with each congestion zone
account for more than 90% of the total load for that
congestion zone.
For example, NCENT WZ and EAST WZ comprise
94.1% of NORTH CMZ.
Positive values indicate Forecast is higher than
historic average, Negatives indicate Forecast is lower
than historic average.
http://www.vector-group.com
© 2016 - Vector Group Services
All Rights Reserved
DAY1 FORECASTED LOAD BY CMZ DATA RUN February 24, 2016 4:28A

5. FORECAST VS. BACKCAST LOAD
1 2
HOUSTON CMZ HOUSTON CMZ
Thousands of MWh MWh
NORTH CMZ % Deviation
3 4
NORTH CMZ NORTH CMZ
Thousands of MWh MWh
SOUTH CMZ % Deviation
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
1A 2 3 4 5 6A 7 8 9 10 11 12P 1 2 3 4 5 6P 7 8 9 10 11 12M
.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
1A 2 3 4 5 6A 7 8 9 10 11 12P 1 2 3 4 5 6P 7 8 9 10 11 12M
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
1A 2 3 4 5 6A 7 8 9 10 11 12P 1 2 3 4 5 6P 7 8 9 10 11 12M
.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
1A 2 3 4 5 6A 7 8 9 10 11 12P 1 2 3 4 5 6P 7 8 9 10 11 12M
SOUTH CMZ % Deviation
5 6
SOUTH CMZ SOUTH CMZ
Thousands of MWh MWh
WEST CMZ % Deviation
7 8
WEST CMZ WEST CMZ
Thousands of MWh MWh
Daily Report
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
1A 2 3 4 5 6A 7 8 9 10 11 12P 1 2 3 4 5 6P 7 8 9 10 11 12M
.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
1A 2 3 4 5 6A 7 8 9 10 11 12P 1 2 3 4 5 6P 7 8 9 10 11 12M
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
1A 2 3 4 5 6A 7 8 9 10 11 12P 1 2 3 4 5 6P 7 8 9 10 11 12M
.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
1A 2 3 4 5 6A 7 8 9 10 11 12P 1 2 3 4 5 6P 7 8 9 10 11 12M
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
1A 2 3 4 5 6A 7 8 9 10 11 12P 1 2 3 4 5 6P 7 8 9 10 11 12M
.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
1A 2 3 4 5 6A 7 8 9 10 11 12P 1 2 3 4 5 6P 7 8 9 10 11 12M
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
1A 2 3 4 5 6A 7 8 9 10 11 12P 1 2 3 4 5 6P 7 8 9 10 11 12M
.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
1A 2 3 4 5 6A 7 8 9 10 11 12P 1 2 3 4 5 6P 7 8 9 10 11 12M
All Rights Reserved http://www.vector-group.com
REPORT PREPARED: February 24, 2016
HOUSTON CMZ
Vector Group Services
% Deviation FORECAST DATE: Feb 22, 2010
© 2016 - Vector Group Services
2/24/2016