Lecture 4Evaluation and Mitigation of RisksCrucial considera.docx

Lecture 4
Evaluation and Mitigation of Risks
Crucial considerations for your new business venture
Business Planning
1
You & your business idea
Market segments & value proposition

Marketing Strategy
Operations plan
Risk &
strategic options
Financial plan
Resources available
Resources needed
New Venture Creation
Framework
(Burns, 2014)
Last weeks lecture and the first seminar – market segments,
value proposition and marketing strategy
This week: operations plan and strategy
2
Lecture Outline
Identifying, Estimating & Mitigating Risk
Legal foundations, Regulatory, and Professional Considerations
People
Definition of Risk
“The possibility that an event will occur and adversely affect
the achievement of objectives.”

External (e.g. economic trends, regulations, competition)
Internal (e.g. people, process, infrastructure).
“Identifying, managing, and exploiting risk across an
organization has become increasingly important to the success
and longevity of any business.”
(PWC, 2008:5)
What if…?
What if?
Micro / macro
5
Identifying, Estimating & Mitigating Risk
The biggest risk…
Successful entrepreneurs are calculated risk takers, not

gamblers!!!
SWOT should help...
Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, Threats
But SWOT is not so much a tool for analysis as a set of
headings for organising the information garnered from your
analysis.
SWOT gets over-used as a substitute for real strategic analysis.
Don’t over-rely on it.
Entrepreneurs need to do more strategic analysis than a simple
SWOT.
Macro-Environment Analysis - Assessing the Business
environment with PESTEL
10
Political -Government stability -Tax policy -Foreign trade
regulations- Social welfare policies – EU expansion
Economic - Business cycles - GNP trends - Interest rates -
Money supply – Inflation – Unemployment - Disposable income
Sociocultural - Population demographics - Income distribution -
Social mobility - Lifestyle changes - Attitudes to work and
leisure – Consumerism - Levels of education - Fashion
Technological - Government spending on research - Government

and industry focus on technological effort - New discoveries
/developments - Speed of technology transfer - Rates of
obsolescence
Environmental
Environmental protection laws - Waste disposal - Energy
consumption – food miles/campaigns
Legal - Competition law - Employment law - Health and safety -
Product safety
NB PRIORITISE
See VLE for local government example
Industry/Sector Analysis
Michael Porter gives us a useful tool to analyse the relationship
between competitors, suppliers and the market…
Use Porter’s Five Forces to assess where risks may arise in the
sector.
Porter’s (1980) Five Forces
Which risks matter?
Legal obligations
Ethical responsibilities
Threats that undermine your values

Threats to viability, reputation or commercial success
Threats to long-term sustainability
Different types of risk
Strategic risk (e.g. ‘threat of new entrants’)
Operational risk (associated with the day-to-day running of the
business, lead times, employees, safety, liabilities)
Financial risk (i.e. risk of losing your investment, running out
of money, etc)
Commercial risk
How accurate/likely are your income projections?
How risky are your customers?
How much credit will you offer to customers and what is the
risk of them not paying you back? Could you obtain a deposit or
pro-forma payment?
Identify risks (internal and external)
Evaluate probability of risk materializing
Evaluate impact of risk
Deciding how risk might be mitigated
Decide on early warning signs to monitor
Risk Management

Pre-launch delays
Competitors
Competitive advantage
Market
Customer value proposition
Product/service quality
Customer service
Cash flow
Sales
Profits
Operations
Productivity
Administration
IP
Technology
Investment
Stocks/inventory
Merchandising
Debtors/receivables
Interest rates
Exchange rates
Management
See page 221 of Burns, P. (2014) ‘New Venture Creation’
Risk Checklist
Risk Assessment Matrix (RAM)
With your rating scales, create a Risk Assessment Matrix to

help you categorize the Risk Level for each risk using “traffic
light”
For more explanation visit http://www.project-management-
skills.com/qualitative-risk-analysis.html
Risk Events and RatingsRisk EventPossible
causesImpactsProbabilityImpactInitial Risk
RatingMitigation / TreatmentProduct not ready for launch date
Supplier does not deliver on time.
Assembly takes longer than planned.Need to reschedule launch.
Threat to reputation.3412Progress checks every week and report
to SMT.Bad debtsPoor credit risk assessment
Weak credit managementDepends on size of debt – if large
could lead to insolvency2510Credit insurance. Credit
management training and implementation of strong
processesLow 0-6Medium 7-11High12-15Exposed 16-
25n Probabilityn Impact1Unlikely (Very Low) less
than1%1Small2Occasional (Low) 1% - 5%2Limited3Possible
(Moderate) 6%-20%3Moderate4Often (High) 21%-
50%4Serious5Likely (Very High) over 50%5Catastrophic
Risk Mapping
(example from previous students’ business plan)
Forecasting Risk
in your business plan
Best guess estimates

Produce ‘what if’ scenarios
Identify critical factors
Use spreadsheets to forecast ‘best and worst case’ scenarios e.g.
if income lower/costs higher and vice versa.
Would your business still be viable?
What changes/compromises would you have to make?
Attempt to eliminate risk
Attempt to reduce risk
Transfer risk
Accept risk
Mitigating Risk
Launch your product in its ‘minimum viable’ state and then
tailor it to the specific needs of customers
Advantages:
First mover advantage
Cost minimization
Market risk reduction
Key to success:
Close customer relationships
Mechanisms to receive their feedback

Lean Start-up
Transfer the risk: Insurances
“Paying out money to cover you against hazards, which you
fervently hope will not happen, ranks fairly low in satisfaction.
But it should rank quite high in priority…” (Williams, 2013,
p.291)
Insurance you must have by law (in UK)
Employers’ liability insurance
Motor vehicle insurance
Insurance that responsible businesses are expected to have
Public liability insurance
Liability insurance related to specific circumstances (e.g.
product; professional indemnity)
Insurance you might require to cover risks and disasters
Headlines
“Flooded York shop couple face £30,000 losses”
“Floods threaten to dampen UK economy”
“Demolition begins after Bradford mill fire”
“Scaffolding smashes roof of brand new BMW”

“Scarred for life by manicurist”
23
NFL player Troy Polamalu gets $1m hair insurance
The long curly hair that sticks out of NFL Pittsburgh Steelers
player Troy Polamalu's helmet has been insured by a shampoo
company for $1m (£650,000). Shampoo maker Procter &
Gamble took out the policy with Lloyd's of London.
“One in four UK SMEs suffer from bad debt”
(source: Bibby Financial Services survey
“30,000 small businesses in Carillion’s vast supply chain are
owed money”
Remember: Cash is King!!
Reduce Risk:
Intellectual Property Protection
Helps to stop people stealing or using without permission
the names of your products or brands
your inventions
the design or look of your products

things you write, make or produce
26
Mitigation of risk via Protection: Intellectual Property
Intellectual Property: An Overview
Trademarks
Trademarks distinguish the goods or services of one trader from
another.
They are ‘badges of origin’
Example: Cadbury has 593 trademarks registered with the UK
IPO
Brands and Logos

Aunt Bessies = Wm Jackson in Hull
Arco – also in Hull
Bettys and Taylors – Wild family
29
Patenting an Invention
Has to be original
Protects for a limited time
See Business and IP centre
Many small firms don’t have resources to fight patent
infringement
Alternative perspective
Open Innovation
(See Chesborough, 2003)

“When we share, everyone wins”
Creative Commons
“Creative Commons provides free, easy-to-use copyright
licenses to make a simple and standardized way to give the
public permission to share and use your creative work–
on conditions of your choice.”
See https://creativecommons.org/
Security and cyber security
Useful info from gov.uk:
Small Businesses: What you need to know about cyber security
Be cyber streetwise
Particularly relevant if you intend to work with government or
large corporations, or if you intend to run a web-based/`cyber’
business.
Must comply with Data Protection legislation
Mitigation of risk via contracts
Employment contracts
Legal requirement
Customer & Supplier contracts:
Standard forms of contract (obligations , payment terms etc)
Consistent with business model and values
MoU

Mitigation through Professions
Accountancy and the law are professions. For SMEs, finance
and law can be a minefield to navigate.
Businesses can outsource functions such as payroll, book-
keeping and employment advice.
Many consider it worth the expense.
Gives an easy point of contact for professional advice.
Can save money with good tax advice
Signals quality if professionals are well chosen
Can save costs of unwittingly breaking employment law!
Legal Responsibilities
Employers must "ensure, so far as is reasonably practicable,
the health, safety and welfare at work" of all their employees.
(Health and Safety at Work Act, 1974)
E.g. You could be fined or go to prison if you don’t follow fire
safety regulations
You may need a license (see https://www.gov.uk/licence-finder)
Employer liability insurance is a legal requirement to cover you
if something goes wrong.
35
Legal Obligations
As Employers

To Customers
To Anyone who comes on your premises
Safety of products
Tax
Licenses
See the Gov.uk Business and Self-Employed page
Ethical Responsibilities
To Employees
Society
Environment
Anyone who comes into contact with your business
Relevance for your business plans:
Demonstrate an understanding of the context industry,
environment etc within which your enterprise will operate
Identify potential risks and explain treatment (eg mitigation)
People
Satisfaction, Loyalty, Profitability
Heskett et al (1994)
‘The Service-Profit Chain’
Profit and growth are stimulated by customer loyalty.
Loyalty is a direct result of customer satisfaction.
Satisfaction is due to how valuable the services are.
Value is created by satisfied, loyal, and productive employees.
Employee satisfaction results from having support services and
policies that allow them to deliver results to customers.

Link to previous lectures:
Therefore, profit and growth requires getting it right ‘behind the
scenes’ as well as having an attractive product, advert, fancy
marketing campaign, etc.
The entire ‘blueprint’ needs to be right.
The critical importance of service employees
They are the service.
They are the organization in the customer’s eyes.
They are the brand.
They are marketers.
Their importance is evident in:
- the services marketing mix (people)
the service-profit chain
41
They are the service, they are the face of the firm.
in many cases, the contact employee is the service
- we often DO NOT DISTINGUISH between the person and the
firm
(haircutting, child care, counseling, legal services)
in these cases, the offering is the employee
- other examples?
They are the organization in the customer’s eyes.
employees represent the firm to the client
may be the ONLY contact they have with the firm
e.g., Dixon Pest Control
everything they say and do can influence perceptions of the
organization

even “off-duty” employees can influence perceptions
They are marketers.
they are walking “billboards”
they represent the company and influence customer satisfaction
they are salespersons
(waiters selling dessert; AT&T operators cross-selling)
In this context, marketing is relevant to everyone and too
important to just be left to the marketing department or sales
staff!
The Service Talent Cycle
“Although innovation cannot be touched, heard, tasted or seen it
can be felt” (Ahmed, 1998: p30).
“Post-industrial organisations today are knowledge-based
organisations and their success and survival depend on
creativity, innovation, discovery and inventiveness.” (Martins
and Terblanche, 2003: p64)
Culture is “the way we do things around here” (Lundy and
Cowling, 1996)

Innovation, Creativity, Culture
Source:Martins and Terblanche (2003:70)
Influence of organisational culture on creativity and innovation
Relevance for your business plans:
What are the key roles in your organisation and how will they
be structured?
How will you recruit, remunerate and retain your talent?
What is your target organisational culture?
Next Steps
In your team, develop and refine your venture
Remember to apply the concepts and also to research the costs.
Attend your timetabled seminar.

Next week: Guest Speaker, George Winfield. Award winning
entrepreneur and CEO of Spyras
Tuesday, February 14, 17
Next Week
George Winfield – multi-award winning entrepreneur and CEO
of Spyras
You will have the opportunity to ask questions via mentimeter
– consider what you can ask to help with your business plan
Reading
Burns, P. (2014). New Venture Creation
– A framework for entrepreneurial start-ups.
Basingstoke: UK. Palgrave Macmillan
Chapter 9: Legal Foundations
Chapter 11: Managing & Leading People
References:
Chesbrough, Henry W. (2003). "The era of open
innovation". MIT Sloan Management Review. 44 (3): 35–41.
Re Floods:
Flooded_York_shop_couple_face_£30000_losses
Floods and Liability Insurance
Simple Health and Safety Insurance

Fire Safety
Other Useful Reading
Also:
Business Gateway
If you’ve not discovered it yet,
ensure you check out UK government advice
INDIVIDUAL: TOPIC SEARCH STRATEGY (ITSS)
GUIDELINESPURPOSE
· The Topic Search Strategy Paper is the first of three related
assignments which are due in Unit 3.
· The purpose of this initial paper is to briefly describe your
search strategies when identifying articles that pertain to an
evidence-based practice topic of interest.Course Outcomes
This assignment enables the student to meet the following
course outcomes.
· CO 1: Examine the sources of knowledge that contribute to

professional nursing practice. (PO #7)
· CO 2: Apply research principles to the interpretation of the
content of published research studies. (POs #4 and #8)
DUE DATE
· Week #2, May 17, Sunday, 11:59 PM, Submitted in ITSS in
CANVAS
· The college’s Late Assignment policy applies to this
assignment.POINTS POSSIBLE: 160
Points.REQUIREMENTS/PREPARING THE PAPER
· Each student will sign-up for a group to formulate an
evidence-based practice topic of interest
· Each group will formulate research question using PICO
format.
· Each student will search, retrieve, and receive approval for 1
PRIMARY DATA ARTICLE to answer the group Research
Question.
· Paper should include a Title and Reference pages.
· Page Length: 3-4 pages Excluding Title and Reference pages
· The paper will include the following:
· Clinical Question
· Group Research Question and in PICOT format
· Purpose of your paper
· Search Strategy
· Search terms
· Databases used: Chamberlain Database
· Refinement decisions made
· Identification of one most relevant articles and why chosen
· Levels of Evidence
· Type of question asked
· Best evidence found to answer question
· Format
· Correct grammar and spelling
· Use of headings for each section
· Use of APA format (sixth edition)

· Required to write the paper based on PAPER FORMAT in
page 2
1
· Refers to Grading Rubric in page 3
INDIVIDUAL TOPIC SEARCH STRATEGY (ITSS) PAPER
FORMAT
CLINICAL QUESTION
Research Question
· Accurately and clearly states your group’s research question
as your group formulated using PICO format.
Purpose of Paper
· Describe the purpose of your topic search strategy (ITSS)
paper.
SEARCH STRATEGY
Search Terms
· List all terms you used to search for your articles (i.e. breast
cancer, screening, mammography, intervention, assessment,
influencing factors….etc.)
Library Databases
· List Chamberlain library database you used (i.e. EBSCO,
Medline, OVID, PubMed....etc.)
· Google search engine is NOT the library database
Availability of Articles-
· How many research articles were available to answer your
group research question?
· Provide numbers of articles, NOT just saying “plenty,
sufficient, many…etc.
Refinement Decisions

Changed Decision
· What decision(s) have you changed from your original search
strategies? (i.e. peer-review, within last 5 years, primary data
article, full-text….etc.)
Rationale for Changed Decision
· What was your rationale for your decision to change from
original search strategies?
Availability of Articles
group research question after refinement decision?
· Provide numbers of articles, NOT just saying “plenty,
sufficient, many…etc.
FINAL ARTICLES
Final Decision
Selection of Relevant Articles
· Describe decisions you made to specifically select 1
PRIMARY DATA ARTICLE as relevant for answering your
group Research Question and for reviewing/analyzing for
Analyzing Published Research Article paper.
Levels of Evidence
Topic Addressed
· Describe how your article addresses the topic (i.e. therapy,
prognosis, risk factors, assessments, measurement tools,
meaning….etc) (see handout)
Study Type
· Identify study type of article(s): Quantitative, Qualitative,
Descriptive, or Mixed-Method Study
Level of Evidence: Evidence Level Pyramid
· Identify and describe the level of evidence based on Evidence

Level/Hierarchy Pyramid
· Refers to Handout (Quick Guide to Designs in an Evidence
Hierarchy)
SUMMARY
· Summarize your overall article search processes/procedures.
Grading Rubric & Description for Individual Topic Search
Strategy (ITSS)
CLINICAL QUESTION (20)
Research Question (PICO)
10
· Accurately and clearly states your group’s formulated
Research Question and stated in PICO format
Purpose of Paper
10
· Describe the purpose of your ITSS paper
SEARCH STRATEGY (140)
Search Terms
10
· List terms you used to search for your article (i.e. breast
cancer, screening, mammography, intervention, factors..etc)
Library Databases
5
· List Chamberlain library database you used (i.e. EBSCO,
Medline, OVID, PubMed....etc.)
· Google search engine is NOT the library database
Availability of Articles
5
group research question?
· Provide numbers of articles, NOT just saying “plenty or
many…etc.

Refinement Decisions (30)
10
· What decision(s) have you changed from your original search
strategies? (i.e. peer-review, within last 5 years, primary data
article, full-text….etc.)
10
· What was you rationale for your decision to change?
10
group’s research question after refinement decision?: Provide
numbers of articles, not just saying “plenty or many…etc.
Final Articles (20)
15
· Describe decisions you made to specifically select
ONEPRIMARY DATA ARTICLE as relevant for answering
your group Research Question and for reviewing/analyzing for
Analyzing Published Research Article paper.
5
· Submit a hard copy of your selected article.
Level of Evidence (45)
20
· Describe how your article addresses the topic (i.e. therapy,
prognosis, risk factors, assessments, or meanings….etc)
15
· Identify and describe the Level of Evidence based on level of
evidence pyramid
10

· Identify Study Type of article(s) based on the study design:
Quantitative, Qualitative, Descriptive, Mixed-Method Study
Summary (10)
10
· Summarize your overall article search processes/procedures
Format (15)
5
10
· Format: Use of required Paper Format including Headings and
Subheading for each category, and Paper length for 3-4 pages
· APA Format
Total Points: /160 Points
Comments:
THIS WILL HELP TO Answers to the questions-
1. According to my group, our research question is the “Effects
of exercise on clients with mental health disorders”. The PICO
format ,
The PICO Question is based on your Group Research Paper.
P-Clients with Mental Health Conditions
I- Effects of exercise
O- the outcome may be physiologic and psychologic – BMI,
weight, level of symptoms, well-being, QoL, etc.
2. The purpose of this paper is to identify the search strategies
used to identify a primary research study on my topic.
3. The term I used to search for my article is “exercise and
mental health”
4. The Chamberlain Library database I used was “CINAHL
Complete”
5. The research articles that was available to answer my group
research question was 2,921
6. For refinement decision, I did not have to change anything.

7. For picking my final article, the first thing I did was to limit
my publication date between the last 5 years, I also centered my
major headings on exercise and mental health In order to be
more specific.
8. FOR LEVEL OF EVIDENDE – use the article
9. Study type is quantitative study (***CHECK THE
“METHOD” in the article**)
Level of Evidence: Evidence Level Pyramid
10. Identify and describe the level of evidence based on
Evidence Level/Hierarchy Pyramid
11. Refers to Handout (Quick Guide to Designs in an Evidence
Hierarchy)
SUMMARY
12. Summarize your overall article search processes/procedures.
**PLEASE NOTE THIS IS NOT A PAPER ABOUT THE
ARTICLE IT IS MOSTLY ABOUT HOW I RESEARCH THE
ARITCLE AND I ALREADY GAVE THE ANSWERS.
USE THE SAMPLE AS A GUIDE AS WELL. THANK YOU
©Journal of Sports Science and Medicine (2019) 18, 399-404
http://www.jssm.org
Received: 30 January 2019 / Accepted: 02 May 2019 / Published
(online): 01 August 2019

`
A Long-Term Exercise Intervention Reduces Depressive
Symptoms in Older
Korean Women
Youngyun Jin, Donghyun Kim, Haeryun Hong and Hyunsik
College of Sport Science, Sungkyunkwan University, Suwon,
Republic of Korea
Abstract
Despite its prevalence and significance, late life depression
is underrecognized and undertreated. This study aimed to
investigate the effect of a long-term exercise intervention
on depressive symptoms in older Korean women. Thirty
older women were assigned to exercise (n = 15, age of 80.8
± 3.8 years) or control group (n = 15, age of 78.6 ± 3.2
years). The exercise group underwent a resistance exercise
plus walking two times weekly on nonconsecutive days for
6 months. Post-intervention change in depressive symp-
toms was regarded as the primary outcome. Secondary out-
comes included changes in body composition and physical
performance. Repeated measures analysis of variance
showed significant group by time interactions for depres-
sive symptoms (F(1,23) = 37.540, p < 0.001), percent body
fat (F(1,23) = 6.122, p = 0.021), lean body mass (F(1,23) =
5.662, p = 0.026), waist circumference (F(1,23) = 4.330, p
= 0.049), handgrip strength (F(1,23) = 10.114, p = 0.005),
6-min walking (F(1,23) = 28.988, p < 0.001), and 2.44-m
Up & Go (F(1,23) = 28.714, p < 0.001). The current find-

ings support regular exercise as a therapeutic strategy to
promote overall and mental health in older Korean women
with depressive symptoms.
Key words: Aging; functional capacity; mental health;
physical activity.
Introduction
Depression is a worldwide problem and is projected to be
the second leading cause of disability worldwide in 2020
(Whiteford et al., 2013). In particular, late life depression
(LLD) is one of the most prevalent mental disorders in
older adults, with prevalence estimates ranging from 4.6 to
9.3% (Luppa et al., 2012). LDD is associated with in-
creased health care costs, increased morbidity and suicidal
risks, impairments in physical, social, and cognitive func-
tioning, and increased dementia (Georgakis et al., 2016).
Despite its prevalence and clinical significance,
however, LLD is underrecognized and undertreated due to
its complicated etiologies, and often being viewed as an in-
evitable part of the aging process.
Antidepressants, such as selective serotonin re-up-
take inhibitors, have been the most common treatment
choice (Allan and Ebmeier, 2018). However, the pharma-
cologic options are unfortunately often accompanied by
many side effects, including falls, cardiovascular events,
fractures, epilepsy, hyponatremia, and increased risk of all-
cause mortality (Stubbs, 2015). Hence, alternative strate-
gies for treatment of LLD are needed.

Whether exercise improves depressive symptoms in
older populations has not been consistently demonstrated
in trials; some have been positive (Williams and Lord,
1997), whereas others have yielded null effects (Jette et al.,
1996). In a cluster-randomized controlled trial, for exam-
ple, Underwood et al. found that a moderately intense ex-
ercise program did not reduce depressive symptoms in 65
years or older residents in care homes (Underwood et al.,
2013). In a meta-analysis of seven exercise intervention
studies, Bridle and his colleagues found a small to moder-
ate effect (standardized mean difference = -0.34, 95%
confidence interval -0.52 to -0.17) of exercise on depres-
sion in older adults (Biddle et al., 2015). Conversely, exer-
cise may have beneficial effects as an adjunctive treatment
for older adults who partially respond to antidepressant
medications (Mura and Carta, 2013).
The lack of consistent results from exercise trials in
patients with LLD appears multifactorial. In particular,
previous research has shown positive effects of exercise on
depression but studies have mainly focused on the short-
term effects; few have examined the long-term effects
(Helgadóttir et al., 2017). In this study, therefore, we report
the beneficial effects of a long-term exercise intervention
on depressive symptoms in older Korean women.
Methods
Overall study design is illustrated in Figure 1. At baseline,
a total of 30 older women were recruited from local retire-
ment centers via flyers and advertisement. Study partici-
pants attended an orientation session where they received
an explanation regarding the study and underwent a screen-
ing for study participation.

Eligibility criteria were: (a) age of 75 years or older;
(b) having clinically significant depressive symptoms but
not taking anti-depressants; (d) no pain in the knee(s) on
most days of the month; or (e) no difficulty with the fol-
lowing due to knee pain: walking one-quarter mile; climb-
ing stairs; getting in and out of a car, bath, or bed; rising
from a chair; or performing shopping, cleaning, or self-care
activities. Exclusion criteria were: (a) presence of a medi-
cal condition that precluded participation in a safe exercise
program (e.g., recent myocardial infarction or stroke, se-
vere chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, congestive
heart failure); (b) inflammatory arthritis; (c) regular partic-
ipation in exercise (more than once a week for at least 20
minutes); or (d) inability to walk without assistance.
Research article
Exercise and mental health
400
Figure 1. Flow chart of the study design.
Afterward, participants completed baseline assess-

ments including depressive symptoms, physical fitness ca-
pacity, and body composition. Participants were then as-
signed to either control (n = 15, mean age of 78.6 ± 3.2
years) or exercise (n = 15, mean age of 80.8 ± 3.6 years)
group (p value for age = 0.120). The sample size for each
group was determined so that the study would be suffi-
ciently powered to detect group differences in the primary
outcome of depressive symptoms in this study. Based on
our preliminary data, we calculated that a sample size of 12
participants per group would provide 85% power with
probability of alpha error of 0.05 for detecting a statisti-
cally significant difference in the primary outcome be-
tween the two groups.
Individuals in the exercise group underwent a 6-
month exercise program, while individuals in the control
group maintained their sedentary lifestyles. Then, partici-
pants had post-intervention assessments using the same
procedures as at baseline. Two participants in the exercise
group refused to participate in the exercise intervention due
to personal reasons, and three participants in the control
group refused post-intervention assessment. Consequently,
data obtained from 13 (retention rate of 90%) and 12 par-
ticipants (retention rate of 85%) out of the exercise and
control groups, respectively, were used for statistical anal-
yses.
Informed consent was obtained from all participants
prior to study participation. The Institutional Review
Board, in accordance with the World Medical Association
Declaration of Helsinki, reviewed and approved the study
protocol (SKKU 2017-06-009).
Assessment of depressive symptoms
The Korean version of the Short form of the Geriatric De-

pression Scale (SGDS-K) was administered as a screening
measure for depression. This is a 15-item self-report binary
response format (yes/no) with scores ranging from 0 to 15.
Depression was defined when diagnosed by a physician in
participants with a score of 8 or higher on the 15-item,
short-form of the self-administered GDS-K of which its va-
lidity and reliability were previously tested and reported
(Bae and Cho, 2004).
Measurement of handgrip strength and physical fitness
capacity
Handgrip strength was measured to the nearest kilogram of
each participant's dominant hand using a hand grip dyna-
mometer (TANITA No. 6103, Tokyo, Japan). Participants
performed 2 trials with 1-minute pause between each trial,
and verbal encouragement was given during each trial. The
best value of 2 trials was taken as the score for maximal
voluntary handgrip strength (kg).
Physical fitness capacity was measured using the
senior fitness test battery, as described previously (Rikli
and Jones, 2013). Briefly, the senior fitness test assesses
the physiological capacity for performing normal daily ac-
tivities independently and safely without the appearance of
fatigue. After 10 minutes of warm-up (i.e., walking around
indoor tracks and stretching), participants performed the
SFT in the following order: (1) chair stand for 30 seconds
to assess lower-body strength (number of stands), (2) arm
curl for 30 seconds to assess upper-body strength (number
of curls), (3) chair-sit-and-reach to assess flexibility of
lower extremities (cm +/-), (4) the 2.44-m up-and-go to as-
sess agility as an index of basic mobility skill (seconds),
and (5) a 6-minute walk test to assess aerobic capacity (me-
ters). Test validity and reliability of the senior fitness test
was previously published (Rikli and Jones, 2013).

Measurement of body composition
Height and weight were recorded with a stadiometer at-
tached to a scale (Jenix, Seoul, Korea). Body mass index
squared height (m2). Percent body fat and lean body mus-
cle were assessed using the bioelectrical impedance Inbody
720 (Biospace, Seoul, Korea). Bioelectrical impedance
was chosen for its ease of use, less invasive nature, and
good validity and reliability for assessment of body com-
position in the older adults (Kelly Metcalfe, 2012). In ad-
dition, waist circumference was measured to the nearest
0.1cm at the umbilicus level between the lower rib and the
iliac crest.
Exercise intervention
Participants in the exercise group underwent a six-month
Jin et al.
401
exercise intervention consisting of three times of resistance
exercise (i.e., Monday, Wednesday, and Friday) and two
times of walking (i.e., Tuesday and Thursday) on noncon-
secutive days each week under supervision of a certified
exercise leader and two exercise scientists.
Resistance exercise was performed in a group and
in the following order to provide a stimulus to all the major
muscle groups; chest press, leg press and extension, shoul-

der press, abdominal curl, and biceps curl using a low-load,
elastic band (TheraBand, Performance Health, Akron, OH,
USA). Resistance exercise was performed using two sets
of 15-20 repetitions.
Walking, with a duration of 20 minutes per session
and an intensity of 40-50% of heart rate reserve, was per-
formed in a group on a walking trail in a public park. Dur-
ing each session, the prescribed exercise intensity was
monitored by wearing a heart monitor (Polar OH1 HR Sen-
sor, Polar, Finland).
Additionally, for the first three months, both exer-
cise and control groups received monthly education ses-
sions by a nurse on issues related to arthritis management
so that participants could have sufficient skills and
knowledge to cope with the disease. Later, participants
were called bimonthly to maintain health updates and pro-
vide mental and social support.
Statistical analyses
The Shapiro–Wilk test was performed to examine the nor-
mality of data (p>0.05). The repeated measures analysis of
variance (RM-ANOVA) was used to compare any signifi-
cant differences in the measured parameters from pre- and
post-tests between the two groups while controlling for
baseline values as covariates. In addition, paired t-test with
Bonferroni correction was used to test any significant
within-group differences in the parameters from pre- and
post-tests. Multivariate linear regression was performed to
determine predictors of changes in depressive symptoms
after the exercise intervention. Statistical analyses were
performed using SPSS-PC 23.0 (SPSS, Chicago, IL, USA)
software. All data are reported as mean±standard devia-
tion, and statistical significance was assumed at p< 0.05.

Results
With respect to depressive symptoms and body composi-
tion shown in Table 1, the RM-ANOVA showed a signifi-
cant time by group interaction (F(1,23) = 37.540, p <
0.001) for mean values in GDS-K scores from pre- and
post-tests between the two groups. The participants in the
exercise group has a significant decrease in GDS-K scores
(p < 0.001), while the participants in the control group did
not. In addition, there were significant time by group inter-
actions for mean values in percent body fat (F(1,23) =
6.122, p = 0.021), lean body mass (F(1,23) = 5.662, p =
0.026), and waist circumference (F(1,23) = 4.330, p =
0.049) from pre- and post-tests between the two groups.
The participants in the exercise group had significant de-
creases in percent body fat (p = 0.005) and waist circum-
ference (p = 0.050) in conjunction with a significant in-
crease in lean body mass (p = 0.012) after the exercise in-
tervention, while the participants in the control group did
not.
With respect to physical functional capacity param-
eters shown in Table 2, the RM-ANOVA showed signifi-
cant time by group interactions for mean values in handgrip
strength (F(1,23) = 10.114, p = 0.005), the distance walked
in 6 minutes (F(1,23) = 28.988, p < 0.001), and the 2.44-m
up-and-go time (F(1,23) = 28.714, p < 0.001) from pre- and
post-tests between the two groups. After the intervention,
the participants in the exercise group had significant in-
creases in handgrip strength (p = 0.030) and the distance
covered in 6-min walking (p = 0.001) in conjunction with
a significant decrease in the 2.44-m up-and-go time (p <
0.001), while the participants in the control group did not.

With respect to metabolic risk factors shown in Ta-
ble 3, the RM-ANOVA showed no significant time by
group interactions for any metabolic risk factor from pre-
and post-tests between the two groups.
Finally, multivariate linear regression analysis
showed that changes in percent body fat (p = 0.018) and
agility/dynamic balance (p < 0.001) were two independent
factors for predicting changes in depressive symptoms af-
ter the exercise intervention (Table 4).
Table 1. Depressive symptoms and body composition
parameters of pre- and post-intervention.
Variables
Control (n=12) Exercise (n=13)
F P value
Pre-test Post-test Pre-test Post-test
SGDS-K (scores) 8.7±0.7 6.5±1.1 8.6±0.8 8.8±1.3
0.386
0.033
36.395
a
b
c
0.541
0.858
<0.001

BMI (kg/m2) 27.0±2.1 26.7±2.3 26.1±3.2 25.8±3.2
0.742
7.534
0.030
a
b
c
0.398
0.012
0.863
Body fat (%) 42.0±6.0 41.9±6.6 41.1±6.1 39.5±7.0
0.377
10.457
6.122
a
b
c
0.545
0.004
0.021
LBM (kg) 17.3±1.7 16.4±2.2 17.9±2.1 18.3±1.8
2.522
0.477
5.662
a
b
c

0.126
0.497
0.026
WC (cm) 95.3±5.8 95.0±7.1 94.7±8.4 91.7±9.3
0.498
6.606
4.330
a
b
c
0.488
0.017
0.049
SGDS-K: the Korean version of the short form of the geriatric
depression scale. BMI: body mass index; LBM: lean body mass;
WC: waist circumference. a: group, b: time, c: group × time
402
Table 2. Physical functional capacity parameters of pre- and
post-intervention.
Variables

F P value
Handgrip
strength (kg)
18.8±3.0 18.1±2.3 20.3±2.9 21.1±3.0
3.802
0.125
10.114
a
b
c
0.065
0.727
0.005
6-min-walking
(m)
370.1±51.4 346.4±51.2 397.2±52.2 416.8±56.1
5.512
0.334
28.988
a
b
c
0.028
0.569

<0.001
The 2.44-m up-
and-go (sec)
11.2±1.4 11.1±1.6 11.1±1.8 9.0±1.5
3.957
34.267
28.714
a
b
c
0.059
<0.001
<0.001
Sit and reach
(cm)
1.2±2.1 1.6±2.2 1.7±2.3 1.8±2.3
0.143
3.430
1.036
a
b
c
0.709
0.078
0.320
Handgrip strength: upper body strength, 6-min-walking:

cardiorespiratory fitness, the 2.44-m up-and-go: dynamic
balance,
Sit and reach: flexibility. a: group, b: time, c: group × time
Table 3. Metabolic risk factors of pre- and post-
intervention.
Variables
F P value
SBP (mmHg) 133.6±10.4 132.8±10.2 132.8±7.6 131.9±7.4
0.138
2.945
2.204
a
b
c
0.560
0.092
0.162
DBP (mmHg) 73.4±8.2 72.8±8.0 74.3±6.2 73.9±6.8
0.042
0.121
0.134
a
b
c

0.114
0.423
0.489
-1) 105.6±16.9 108.6±18.1 106.1±21.9
103.6±20.1
0.143
0.439
3.695
a
b
c
0.708
0.514
0.067
TG ( -1) 159.7±53.3 162.3±75.3 161.8±68.0 147.8±77.4
0.207
0.143
2.599
a
b
c
0.654
0.709
0.122
HDL-C
-1)
51.7±8.0 49.4±11.2 51.1±10.0 52.5±10.3
0.032

0.204
3.595
a
b
c
0.859
0.656
0.071
SBP: systolic blood pressure; BDP: diastolic blood pressure;
FBG: fasting blood glucose; TG: triglycerides; HDL-C: high
density lipoprotein-cholesterol; a: group, b: time, c: group ×
time
Table 4. Linear regression for predicting alleviated depression
symptoms following the intervention.
Predictors ß t 95% CI P value
△ Body fat 0.372 2.566 0.066 - 0.617 0.018
△ the 2.44-m up-and-go 0.556 3.833 0.218 - 0.945 0.001
95% CI: 95% confidence interval.△: changed scores of pre-and
post-tests.
Discussion
Regular physical activity has been known to contribute to
the overall health of older populations by influencing men-
tal health and well-being as well as by preserving func-
tional physical capacity. In this study, we investigated the
beneficial effects of a six-month combined exercise inter-
vention on depressive symptoms as well as body composi-

tion and functional physical capacity in older Korean
women and found that the long-term exercise intervention
led to a reduction in depressive symptoms in conjunction
with improvements in body fatness and functional physical
capacity parameters in older Korean women.
The current findings of the present study support and
extend those of previous studies reporting the beneficial ef-
fects of physical activity on body composition and physical
fitness. For example, Lee et al. showed that, in older
women 75 years of age and older, 12 weeks of a combined
exercise program resulted in significantly decreased body
mass index (p < 0.001), body fat (p < 0.001), and waist-hip
ratio (p < 0.001) and increased basal metabolic rate (p <
0.05) and ability to rise from and sit down on a chair (Lee
et al., 2013). From a cross-sectional study involving 19,230
men and 140,578 women 40–69 years of age who partici-
pated in the UK Biobank in 2006–2010, Bradbury et al.
(2017) al. found that physical activity was inversely asso-
ciated with percent body fat independent of body mass in-
dex. Woo et al. (2013) examined the relative importance of
fitness versus fatness for predicting mortality in Chinese
men and women 70 years of age and older and found that,
compared with the high fitness category, participants in the
moderate and low categories had 43% and 68%, respect-
tively, increased risk of mortality at 7 years after adjusting
for multiple confounders including body fatness.
The beneficial effects of physical activity on depres-
sion symptoms have also been reported in children (Larun
et al., 2006) and adults (Giacobbi et al., 2005). Similarly,
the beneficial effects of regular physical activity on overall
mental health and well-being in older populations have
been reported in previous studies (Yadav et al., 2015). In

Jin et al.
403
this aspect, exercise interventions have shown very prom-
ising results for reducing symptoms of major depression in
older adults (Neviani et al., 2017). In an eight-year follow-
up study, Lampinen et al. (2000) showed that physically
active older subjects had fewer depression symptoms com-
pared with their inactive counterparts. Based on the analy-
sis of data from the Fitness, Arthritis, and Seniors Trial
(FAST), Pennix et al. (2002) showed that an 18-month aer-
obic exercise program reduced depression symptoms in
adults 60 years of age or older, and both aerobic and re-
sistance exercise programs equally contributed to reduced
disability and pain and increased walking speed in that
older population. Similarly, Poelke et al. (2016) examined
the effects of a 12-week intervention consisting of physical
plus mental activities on depression symptoms in inactive
older adults with cognitive complaints and found that lei-
sure time activity reduced depression symptoms in the
study population in a dose-response manner.
There are several explanations for the antidepressant
effects associated with exercise intervention. First, physi-
cal activity including regular exercise has been known to
provide an antidepressant effect via its thermogenic effect,
endorphin release, and availability of neurotransmitters
such as serotonin, dopamine, and norepinephrine
(Ransford, 1982). Second, the neurocognitive benefits of
physical activity involve the upregulation of neurotrophin
production, including brain-derived neurotrophic factor,

insulin-like growth factor, and vascular endothelial growth
factors (deVries, 1981). Levels of these biomarkers are al-
tered during and after exercise, which then trigger a cas-
cade of changes in brain functioning that might explain the
alleviation of depression symptoms (Helmich et al., 2010).
Third, self-determination and self-efficacy theories have
been proposed to explain the association between physical
activity and depression symptoms (Bridle et al., 2012). In-
dividuals become more confident in their abilities when en-
gaging in physical activity and feel more in control. Lastly,
physical activity-induced antidepressant effects might be
due to distraction from stressful stimuli (Murri et al., 2018).
This study had several limitations. First, the assess-
ment of depression symptoms was conducted at baseline
and only after the intervention due to several practical dif-
ficulties. Multiple assessments over the six-month inter-
vention period would have provided a better picture for de-
lineating the nature of changes in depression symptoms in
response to exercise intervention (Nyklícek et al., 2004).
Second, measuring biomarkers would be necessary to bet-
ter interpret the beneficial effects of the exercise interven-
tion on depression symptoms in a cause-and-effect manner.
Third, the current findings need to be confirmed using a
study cohort involving both men and women.
Conclusion
In this study, we showed that a long-term exercise inter-
vention combined with resistance exercise and walking re-
duced depression symptoms and body fat, and improved
physical functional capacity, in older women, implying a
therapeutic role of regular exercise for promoting overall
and mental health in geriatric populations. Yet, an addi-
tional study will be necessary to elucidate the biologic link

between the alleviation of depression symptoms and im-
provements of body composition and functional physical
capacity observed in the current study.
Acknowledgements
This study was supported by the National Research Foundation
Grant
funded by the Korean Government (NRF-
2018R1D1A1B07048210 and
NRF-2018R1D1A1B07048153). The authors declare they have
no com-
peting interest. The study complied with the laws of the country
of the
authors’ affiliation.
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Bradbury, K.E., Guo, W., Cairns, B.J., Armstrong, M.E. and
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S.E. (2012)
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deVries, H.A. (1981) Tranquilizer effect of exercise: A critical
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Luppa, M., Sikorski, C., Luck, T., Ehreke, L., Konnopka, A.,
Wiese, B.,
Weyerer, S., König, H.H. and Riedel-Heller, S.G. (2012) Age-
and gender-specific prevalence of depression in latest life-sys-
tematic review and meta-analysis. Journal of Affective
Disorders
136, 212-221.
Georgakis, M.K., Papadopoulos, F.C. and Protogerou, A.D.
(2016)
Comorbidity of cognitive impairment and late-life depression
in-
crease mortality: Results from a cohort of community-dwelling
elderly individuals in rural Greece. Journal of Geriatric
Psychistry and Neurology 29, 195-204.
Giacobbi, R.P., Hausenblas, A.H. and Frye, N. (2005) A
naturalistic as-
sessment of the relationship between personality, daily life

events, leisure time exercise, and mood. Psychology of Sport
and
Exercise 6, 67-81.
Helgadóttir, B., Forsell, Y., Hallgren, M., Möller, J. and
Ekblom, Ö.
(2017) Long-term effects of exercise at different intensity on
de-
pression: a randomized controlled trial. Preventive Medicine
105, 37-46.
Helmich, I., Latini, A., Sigwalt, A., Carta, M.G., Machado, S.,
Velasques,
B., Ribeiro, P. and Budde, H. (2010) Neurobiological
alterations
induced by exercise and their impact on depressive disorders.
Clinical Practice and Epidemiology in Mental Health 6, 115-
125.
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…
Running head: TOPIC SEARCH STRATEGY: IMPROVING
HOSPITAL DISCHARGE 2
Unit 3: RUA Topic Search Strategy
Chamberlain College of Nursing
NR449 Evidence Based Practice
January 2020
Running head: UNDERSTANDING COMPASSION FATUGUE
1
IMPROVING HOSPITAL DISCHARGE

3
Clinical Question
The topic delegated to my team is improving hospital discharge
through medication reconciliation and education. This topic
highlights the errors made by patient, caregivers and family
members because either of the lack of education during
discharge or the lack of resources to help them truly
comprehend what is being explained during discharge processes
and it also highlights the important of medication
reconciliation. In recent times , I cannot put a number on the
amount of articles I’ve read that detailed in deaths of patients
due to self-dosage errors or medication mixing when they’re
supposed to be taken at separate times. The goal of my team is
to investigate ways to improve the hospital discharge process
and also highlight how it negatively impacts the medical field.
Clinical questions and answers will be developed by PICOT to
assist in the conduct of research on this issue. The population
pertains to doctors and nurses that participate in discharge
processes. The intervention would be an execution of new
policies and procedures during the discharge process. The
comparison would be between the current discharge process
versus the one that is implemented with patient safety in mind.
The outcome or aim is to improve the quality of treatment, the
health of patients, and transparency in the discharge process.
Length of time could refer to the minutes to explain everything
in full to patients and family member during discharge .The
PICOT question I formulated is: Does implementing new
discharge processes and teaching to nurses and doctors provide
more education and medication reconciliation to improve the
quality of care patients receive after being discharged ? The
purpose of this RUA paper is to examine the research
techniques used to classify two articles pertaining to the
proposed PICOT problem.
Levels of Evidence
In order to continue research on this project, it is important to

find information that is supported by evidence. I used the mixed
method to carry out my research, which includes both
quantitative and qualitative designs. Quantitative research
designs deal with measurements and can check hypotheses to
classify relationships or gauge the impact of interventions on
outcomes. Such designs may be cross-sectional, longitudinal,
prospective or retrospective, depending on the time factor
(Houser, 2018). Qualitative designs are chosen to understand
the meaning of phenomena and may form the basis of theories
(Houser, 2018). With both of these research methods, we can
find correlational data as well as using retrospective data about
improving patient discharge methods. I can also say that this
would be an exploratory and experimental study because based
on the methods that we choose to address the phenomenon; we
need data and statistics to prove that those methods do indeed
improve discharge methods. The question being asked indicates
if there are any ways to improve discharge processes and the
article, I found answer to the tune of educating nurses and
doctors on better discharge methods.
Search Strategy
When conducting research on improving the discharge process
in hospital settings the terminology used that related to my
PICOT question were "improving discharge process,"
"improving discharge teaching comprehension," "improving
hospital discharge through education", and “improving
discharge through medication reconciliation and education”. I
chose to use the CINAHL and Google Scholars database. Both
databases displayed articles, links, and documents; however, the
CINAHL only had 12 results, while Google Scholars had about
600,000 results. The range difference in the search results was
terrific, so I tried altering the results by currency. I limited the
publication dates between 2010-and 2019. Both databases again
displayed results; however, the CINAHL now only had 10
effects, while Google Scholars had about 18,500 results. The
filter I used drastically reduced the Google Scholars website
results, which made me look closer at the results, and I realized

that not all of them were scholarly. Some were articles from
for-profit companies, some from governmental organizations,
some from non- profit organizations, and other educational
sites. Yet, they were all over the place and made it hard to
decipher the credible ones. The CINAHL database has filters in
place to help you narrow your search as well and links to access
all the documents within the results. It also shows the
publishers, credentials, and authors of each article right
underneath the result so you can determine the originality. The
two article I chose came from the CINAHL database. In the first
article I chose , Mallory et al. (2017) stated: " discharge
medications are a key component to safe hospital discharge and
challenges with medication access and caregiver understanding
of administration instructions can lead to medication errors,
hospital readmissions, and poor outcomes." This statement
piqued my interest and I later found the article supported my
PICOT question because it refers to the “teach-back” method
and having caregivers to repeat back instructions they were
given to improve caregiver understanding and prevent
administration errors. The second article I found, Using “Teach-
Back” to Promote a Safe Transition From Hospital to Home: An
Evidence-Based Approach to Improving the Discharge Process,
is a study that uses the “teach-back” method as an educational
intervention on nurses’ teaching practices and their perceptions
of patient and family understanding of discharge instructions
when compared to the current method of discharge teaching
(Komburger et al , 2013). This article is relevant to my research
because it highlights new methods to improve discharge
methods and it also relates the correlation of the new methods
versus the old methods and how it pertains to patient and family
understanding during the discharge process.
Conclusion
To ensure that information we obtain is relevant to the research
information and articles for the group project, we can start with
the development of PICOT questions. PICOT questions will
help us concentrate our work on the issue of implementing new

discharge policies or teaching new discharge methods. The use
of both qualitative and quantitative approaches and the
evidence-based research papers will help us to find some
suitable solutions for our problem.
References
Houser, J. (2018). Nursing research: Reading, using, and
creating evidence (4th ed.). Burlington, MA: Jones & Bartlett
Learning.
Kornburger, C., Gibson, C., Sadowski, S., Maletta, K., &
Klingbeil, C. (2013). Using “Teach-Back” to Promote a Safe
Transition From Hospital to Home: An Evidence-Based
Approach to Improving the Discharge Process. Journal of
Pediatric Nursing, 28(3), 282–291. https://doi-
org.chamberlainuniversity.idm.oclc.org/10.1016/j.pedn.2012.10.
007
Mallory, L. A., Diminick, N. P., Bourque, J. P., Bryden, M. R.,
Miller, J. L., Nystrom, N. M., … McElwain, L. L. (2017).
Pediatric Patient-Centered Transitions From Hospital to Home:
Improving the Discharge Medication Process. Hospital
Pediatrics, 7(12), 723-730.
Business Planning:
Operations Management

Claire Sinclair
1
NEXT WEEK: 11th Feb: Business Fair – Ron Cooke Hub,
Atrium – 12:30-14:00
Display information about your business
You can use post-its to stick peer review and tutor feedback /
questions to the board
Plan your team’s schedule so that everyone has chance to pitch
as well as look around other stalls to provide feedback to other
team’s on their pitches.
Explore Enterprise Course
If you want to know more about starting your own business but
don’t know where to start, the Explore Enterprise course will
help you try some ideas, network with other entrepreneurs and
compete for a cash prize.
Applications close 9th February
See student gateway or email [email protected] for more
information

You & your business idea
Marketing Strategy
Operations plan
Risk &
strategic options
Financial plan
Resources available
Resources needed
Framework
(Burns, 2014)
Last weeks lecture and the first seminar – market segments,
value proposition and marketing strategy

This week: operations plan and strategy
4
What is operations management?
Operations management can make or break an organisation…..
Managing resources in an efficient and effective manner – to
produce goods and services that delight the customer.
Think of the last time you were really pleased with a purchase.
Why?
And the last time you were disappointed. Why?
Operations management is critical to the success of a business
regardless of an organisation’s size, from multi-national
corporations down to independent coffee shops. Whether they
are concerned with manufacturing or the service sector, if they
are a profit-making enterprise or a not for profit organisation,
and if they exist as a public or private organisation, operations
will be a fundamental part of running the organisation.
5
Scope of operations management
Design of products and services
Design of processes
Planning and control
Management of the supply chain
Managing quality
Managing performance
Improvement
6

Have a clear “operations strategy”
Alex Polizzi – Rocco Forte family, hotel business.
Gordon Ramsay – Hell’s kitchen
Mary Portas – shopping experience, customer service
These programmes are entertaining but they highlight where the
business is failing, and it usually comes down to their
operations
7
Accept the fact that you can’t be good at everything…..
8
Good – Cheap - Fast
9
Accept the fact that you can’t be good at everything…..and
Understand your value proposition and be clear about what is

important…
We need to be clear about our value proposition – what is
important to our organisation – deliver value by focusing on
performance objectives
10
What do customers value at these hotels?
The Grand hotel, York
Travelodge
The Grand Hotel – someone will open the door for you, be
smartly dressed. Spa, restaurant, experience. Quality
Travelodge – price, purely accommodation focused.
11
What do customers value from these airlines?
First Class
Economy
Singapore airlines first class
Ryanair, budget airline
Consider the difference in experience for both and how this
fundamentally alters how the operation needs to perform.

12
What do customers value at these “coffee shops”?
Afternoon Tea at Betty’s
McDonald’s Cafe
Bettys – service, experience, quality, don’t want to be rushed.
MacDonalds – quick, cheap
13
What will your customers value?
Need to be consistent:
With Your Values
With Marketing
With Strategy
Consider the implications for your operations plan.
External Effects of the Five Performance Objectives
Consider the 5 operational performance objectives: which is the
most important for your business?
There are 5 main operational performance objectives
If cost is the big factor, our resources need to be managed
efficiently, and we need to focus on managing cost.
If it’s about quality and service, we need to be sharp on

processes to make sure the experience is as you want it.
15
Operations concepts to consider in your business plan…..
Initial design of products and services
Design of processes
Planning and control
Management of the supply chain
Managing quality
We will talk about each of these in turn now.
Another area which would typically come under operations
management would be risk management, including legal
obligations – we will cover this area in more detail in a later
lecture.
16
Initial design of products or services
Prototypes?
Testing?
Feedback from customers
Investors might want to see it
Plan in LEAD TIME
Market research will help you test your product. But you can
also prototype your product to show investors what you’ll be
offering.
Lead time – Remember to consider how long will it take to
design the product, where you’re paying staff rent etc before
you get your first sale
17

Example
This company is testing out prototypes of its travel luggage.
This research allows you to get feedback from customers to
allow you to refine or improve the design before launching it to
market.
18
Recoil Kneepads
This company is selling kneepads for carpenters. Exhibiting at
trades fairs is a great opportunity to trial your product and get
feedback from potential customers as well as getting your name
/ brand into the marketplace.
19
This artisan cheese company cites that entering competitions
was fundamental to getting it’s first commercial contracts.
Public recognition and awards puts your product in demand and
is great marketing.
20

Questions for your business plans:
Have you got the best design of product/service?
How long will it take to produce?
What tests do you need to check it works?
How long will testing take?
Designing processes that deliver the products or services
Processes support the product / service. Often unseen by
customer.
Subway – clear process for sandwich making – choose your
bread, salad, filling etc as you work your way down the counter.
Dell factory – clear processes and procedures to build laptops as
quickly and as efficiently as possible.
22
The cost of failure can be huge
If the processes don’t work or aren’t aligned with your business
strategy, performance will be impacted.
Telco example
23
For your Business Plans:

Process Mapping
Process maps – ensure things happen in the right order and by
the right people. Consider interdependencies, timeframes and
decision points.
24
Planning & control - capacity
Capacity decisions determine the number of:
customers who can be seen in a day at a spa
mobile phones that can be produced in a week by a factory
How many pizzas can be delivered in one hour
Website or app traffic
Capacity is usually measured in convenient units, such as a:
bus carrying 53 passengers
fast food restaurant with 600 seats
a warehouse with 10,000 m3 of storage space
Capacity – how many pizzas can you deliver in an hour in York
traffic,
25
Richard Hughes: capacity planning is critical
Richard Hughes: entrepreneur, investor and founder of
boohoo.com visited TYMS last week
Podcasts specific to business planning can be found here.

He raised some thought provoking ideas. You can discuss them
here
https://vle.york.ac.uk/webapps/blackboard/content/listContentE
ditable.jsp?content_id=_3435674_1&course_id=_94308_1&mod
e=reset
34 secs – 1m10 – capacity planning – ensuring you have
appropriate infrastructure in place to cope with anticipated
demand is crucial.
26
Capacity Management - Adjustments
Capacity can be altered by:
introducing new approaches and materials
increasing service providers or machines
increasing the number of operational hours
acquiring additional facilities
Altering capacity can be difficult, time consuming and incur
costs
Numbers, even if estimates, are important here.
Berits and Brown

Increased capacity by putting out extra tables.
BUT – consider constraints on capacity:
Capacity constraint = restriction on the running of an operation
with respect to available resources (of any kind)
The resource mix, (i.e. inputs) can potentially constrain an
operation:
Staff - skill levels and number of staff
IT facilities/technology – throughput and the way the process
works
Materials availability: A change in the supply of raw materials
Product or service mix: a change may result in a change in
capacity as resources are consumed differently
Storage: swings and fluctuations in demand can be mitigated by
the ability to store products and allow the full capacity of an
operation to flow
Working schedules and access to facilities: A lecture theatre
that can accommodate 100 students at a time and could operate
24hrs per day!
28
The Meghan effect!
Line the Label's website CRASHES after Miss Markle wears a
£450 coat from the Canadian brand for her official engagement
announcement
Source: Mail Online
The Meghan Effect
29

Stance and Rihanna
Stance = small brand with good infrastructure
Signed Rihanna, expected unprecedented rise in visitors
“We needed a consistently high service level because we were
selling limited edition socks.”
Rihanna has over 80 million followers - ‘The Rihanna Army’,
huge interest in every post she makes.
“We knew how to handle our normal traffic and spikes, but not
scale like this.”
Solution
= Load Testing on a massive scale
See: Blazemeter.com
Capacity Planning - Strategies
1. Capacity leads demand - provide capacity ahead of the
forecast, so that it is ready to respond immediately
Advantage: ready to satisfy customer demand and meet short-
term opportunities
Disadvantage: risk of demand not rising, in which case the
operation is left with unnecessary costs and excess unused

capacity
2. Capacity matches demand - provide capacity as demand
changes, expanding and contracting capacity to follow demand
Relies heavily on forecasting and accurate information
Often used in services - a restaurant expanding and contracting
its staffing capacity in line with anticipated peaks and troughs
3. Capacity lags demand - wait to see what demand is, then
respond after
Advantage: this is less risky than providing investment ahead of
demand
Disadvantage: customers may not be prepared to wait for the
product or service, and opportunities can therefore be lost
31
Questions for your business plans:
What checks and controls will you need at different stages of
the process?
How will you respond to changes in demand?

Managing the Supply Chain
Wheat seed producer
Wheat producer
Grain merchant
Flour mill
Catering wholesaler
Sugar cain grower
Sugar manufacture
Sugar distributor
Butter producer
Butter distributor
Local bakeries
CONSUMERS
LEAH’S CUPCAKES
Local egg farmer
Hen supplier
Feed supplier
Cake case manufacture
Cake case retailer
3rd party logistics
Post office
A simple supply network for a small catering company. Source:

Slack, Brandon-Jones and Johnston: Operations Management
Consider interdependencies between ops and finance here eg:
lead times and payment terms. You may have to pay suppliers
before you have sales revenue.
‘Overtrading’ where you have a good order book but not enough
cash to supply the product/service to those customers
33
Sources of supply
Consider cost of supply but also time zone, ethics, tax – how do
all these things affect your value proposition.
34
Questions for your business plans: 2
What do you need?
When do you need it?
Who will supply it?

Managing quality
Quality is all about conformance to expectations
Quality control
Process control
Regulation
Legal Obligations
Optional Certification
Quality control and quality assurance. What is an acceptable
level of quality? Eg airline industry vs retailers will have
different expectations in terms of acceptable failure rates
around safety.
Gov.uk websites have a huge amount of information there in
terms of licensing, regulations and other legal responsibilities.
Eg: safety around childrens toys, allergy laws for food
companies and structure requirements for social enterprises.
You will all be directors of your company and there are some
legal obligations you need to follow.
36

Reading
Burns, P. (2014). New Venture Creation – A framework for
entrepreneurial start-ups. Basingstoke: UK. Palgrave Macmillan
Chapter 10: Organizing Operations
Going Forward and Reflecting Back:
Exits, Assessment and Support
Claire Sinclair
Business Planning
Lecture 7

Go to www.menti.com and use the code 46 05 3 to ask me any
questions about the module
1
Today’s Lecture
Beyond Start-up:
Growing or exiting your business
What to include in your business plan
Reflection revisited: Individual Assessment
Enterprise Support at York: Science Park & Enterprise - Chris
Hiscocks
Student Evaluations

What next after start-up?
Show Potential Beyond Start-up
What’s the long term plan?
How will you achieve it?
Grow? Diversify? New markets?
New/ additional investment?
Seek a buy-out of part or all of your company?
(When) Will your investors want out?
How will you finance your future activities?
Don’t just spend all your time thinking about starting up / the
first year. Consider the first 4 years and beyond.

What will be your (or your investors) exit plan?
Grow or Go?
Some entrepreneurs are very good at ideas and creativity, but
less skilled or interested in the operational elements of running
an established business. The ‘go’ option is a valid strategy.
It is also valid to consider different options for different
circumstances – ‘if this happens I’ll do this…’
Business plans are a working (as opposed to a fixed) document.
5
Options
Trade sale
MBO or MBI
Buy-back (by co-investors)
IPO
Angel Investors 5 years; Return = 5-10x investment; Risk = no
return

Majority of exits are ‘Trade sale’ – develop the business to be
so painful to competitors that they buy you, or someone in your
value chain (supplier or customer (if b2b)) buys you.
MBO Mgt Buy out (existing mgt team buy the business) / mgt
buy in (external mgt team buys the business).
Buy back – current investors buy out one investors shares
IPO – initial public offering
6
Grow?
7
Growth Strategy
Franchisor
Advantages

Way of expanding business quickly
Financing costs shared with franchisees
Income from royalties, sale of goods and franchise fees
Franchisees usually highly motivated since their livelihood
depends on success
Disadvantages
Loss of some control to franchisees
Success dependent on franchisees
Contractual obligations to franchisee
If member of British Franchise Association – costs of
compliance
Franchisee
Advantages
Reduced risk start-up
Tried and tested model
Brand
Support for inexperienced entrepreneurs
Disadvantages
Little control over business

E.g. new signage, training requirements, pricing, layout,
suppliers
Compliance
May be more expensive start-up
Success dependent on franchisor
Contractual obligations to franchisor
Difficult to exit
May have to work very long hours to secure profit
Grow through acquisitions
Horizontal acquisition = two firms in the same line of business
Vertical = expanding up or down chain of distribution, towards
suppliers or ultimate consumer.
Conglomerate = combination of unrelated businesses
Consolidation = new firm created out of two (or more) previous
entities that cease to exist.

The Enterprise Habit
Habitual Entrepreneurs
Portfolio
Serial
Portfolio – more than one business
Serial – one after the other
12
Portfolio Entrepreneurs
Visible and invisible
https://www.virgin.com/company
http://www.pentland.com/our-brands.html

13
In your business plan
Show the potential for your business beyond the first four-
years. Where might it go and how might it get there?
What is the long term vision for the business?
And for you as entrepreneurs?
Clarify your ambitions and vision
Show potential investors how attractive your business is.
Indicative Contents for your Business Plan
Cover – with name and logo
Table of contents – List of sections and sub-sections, with page
numbers.
Executive summary – This is vital. Many lenders and investors
only read the exec summary.

Business strategy – The opportunity - who you are, what you
plan to offer, how, why, and to whom. Your aims and objectives
and key milestones.
Industry and Market Analysis including Competition
Customers and value proposition
Marketing and sales
Operations and resources
Management team, personnel and company structure
Legal and Regulatory requirements – incl necessary insurances
and qualifications.
Financing and financial forecasts - Summarise key information
and forecast when you will become profitable. Detailed
forecasts for Year 1 and less detailed for later years.
Risk Assessment – Summarise risks and steps that you will take
to mitigate.
Long Term Plan – Growth and exit strategies.
Appendices –– any background or supplementary information,
detailed financials, market research information not included in
the main plan.
Reference List – Provide a list of sources used. Best practice
for business planning and business reports is Chicago style (i.e.
footnotes) referencing.

Referencing in a Business Plan
Chicago Style referencing (footnotes)
No reference required for tools that are in common use (e.g.
SWOT; Porters Five Forces; PESTEL)
Most important: Sources of evidence to support your forecasts
List your sources in the Business Plan (report) not in the
presentation
Business Plan Presentation
10 minutes to present
5 minutes Q&A
Panel: Claire Sinclair, Nicky Forsdike, Tim Chapman
LMB 102b Boardroom
Good presentations:
Lively, clear, professional, structured
Everyone must make a contribution
Individual Assignment
“Critically reflect on your role in the development of your team
using relevant academic theories which may include leadership,

group dynamics and/or team roles, to explain your experience.”
2000 words
Group members to be anonymised.
Use Harvard style referencing (usual University of York style)
e.g. (Howorth et al., 2019)
Some useful links about referencing
https://www.york.ac.uk/integrity/
http://www.york.ac.uk/integrity/harvard.html
Why be a reflective practitioner?
Report published by the ICAEW Centre for Business
Performance
When students complete their undergraduate studies they have
to make the transition from a relatively stable and structured
environment to a professional and managerial world that is both
fluid and dynamic.
As professionals they will face the challenge of dealing with
complex and ill-defined problems where structured solutions

may not be available or suitable. They will need to respond with
an active and reflective, rather than a routine or habitual,
response. In other words, they need to develop as ‘reflective
practitioners’ (Schön, 1987). The capacity to reflect underpins
the exercise of professional judgement and ethical awareness
and is an essential part of professional life.
Consequently it is no surprise that, within professional and
undergraduate education, there is an increasing emphasis on the
development of a reflective capacity.
Reflective cycle (Gibb 1988) SEE KOLB LEARNING CYCLE
Description (what happened)
Feelings (what were you thinking and feeling?)

Evaluation (what was good and bad?)
Analysis (what sense can you make of the situation)
Conclusion (what else could you have done?)
Action Plan
(If it arose again, what would you do?)
Remember the theories from the seminars
Tuckman & Jensen – group development
Belbin – team roles
Tannenbaum and Schmidt – leadership
Various theories of entrepreneurship introduced at the bootcamp

Relevant theories you have learned in other modules.
Being Reflective
Discuss development of your idea, including ways in which
your pre-existing knowledge and preconceptions shaped it, how
they have been challenged, and how they have evolved.
Draw on theories about how teams develop and on theories
about how entrepreneurial ideas evolve.
Look back on your experiences (refer to meeting notes, your
learning diary)
Create a timeline showing a sequence of key events or stages.
Make notes about your involvement, impact, and feelings at
each event/stage.
What was challenging for your team, and for you personally?
How did you or could you change to get a better outcome?

Reflection requires a bit of humility…
“…we needed direction, fortunately a natural born leader
emerged….myself. I’d say that my style was a charismatic and
visionary leader, a natural born mixture of the best qualities of
Branson, Dyson, Steve Jobs, and Bill Gates…with none of their
faults.”
“…In Week 4 I was busy with organising social events for my
sports club, so I ordered my most trusted side-kick in the group
to take charge temporarily until my busy schedule permitted the
team to have more of my attention.”
“…this product is aimed at the elite. Fortunately, with my
background I was well placed to be project leader. Therefore the
key ingredient in our success was myself. Fortunately the
others realised this and trusted in my vision and eliteness,
allowing me to lead us to the success that we deserved.”
Note: These are not word-for-word real examples…..but they
are inspired by some of the previous work we have had to mark!

Advice from former students:
Reflective Essay
It’s important to make sure you get the theory in there
It’s a chance to discuss and try to understand problems and
benefits of working in groups
It’s hard to be self-aware and critical but you learn a lot about
yourself
Ooops! Make sure you read the instructions.
Advice from former students: The Presentation
Decide before Easter how you’re going to keep in touch
Delegate presentation roles before the break
Plan what’s going where first, then practice
Quiz each other to practice possible questions
We couldn’t fit in everything we wanted to say so we used a
handout
Good luck!
Please Proof Read

Assessment Summary
Team business plan (5000 words) 30%
11am, Tuesday 21st April 2019
1 electronic copy
Team presentation (15 minutes) 10%
Slides by 11am, Thursday 23rd April 2020
Presentations week comm 27th April 2020
Individual assignment (2000 words) 60%
11am, Wednesday 6th May 2020
1 electronic copy
Support Available
Use our office hours
All tutors will still be answering emails over the Easter holidays
via email or if needed, via phone.

Taught Programmes
Ways to learn about Enterprise. These courses give you the
‘need to know’ and help you hone your skills,
Explore
5 afternoons. Individual or team. Ideation, Market, Pitching.
Pizza.
Expand
3 day mixture of workshops, talks and reflection. The next step
- cash flow, advertising, legal, tax, IP, Trademarks, identity,
values, branding, ‘what next’. Also pizza.
Opportunities
Funding , coaching, workspace, networking
Appointments
Proof of Concept
Summer Accelerator
Year in Enterprise
York Venture One
Startup Visa

york.ac.uk/enterprise [email protected]
What is Phase One?
An entrepreneurial start up space and programme supporting
research spinouts, digital, creative, tech and science innovators
to turn their ideas
into sustainable businesses
Part of a wider University of York investment programme
The Proposition
Phase One Incubator Programme

A smart, 24/7 space and place to set up and run a new business
Flexible desks and pods for working, meeting and collaborating
Full connectivity and wi-fi
Formal meeting room and break out areas
Communal facilities
Access to all Science Park facilities
Support programme of advice, workshops and mentoring
Access to partner organisations and expertise to accelerate
growth potential
A collaborative environment to network and unlock
opportunities
Free for 12 months
Olivia Chatten
[email protected]
01904 435110

Student Evaluations
Good Luck!
It has been a pleasure to teach you
Business Planning
Lecture 1
What Makes a Good Business Plan
Business Models
Collaboration Tools
Claire Sinclair
1

Engineers In Business Competition
A registered charity that promotes the importance and value of
business education for engineers in order to improve people’s
lives and the performance of the UK and global economies.
Increase participation in existing courses or competitions by
offering a cash prize for undergraduate and graduate
engineers £3,000 prize fund, typically awarded as:
Prizes will be judged by a panel following a pitching event
early in the summer term
Winners from the University of York competition will progress
to the National competition
For the top three individuals, or teams, together with an offer of
mentoring support for winners, supplied by the prestigious EIBF
network
A £1,500 prize,
A £1,000 prize
A £500 prize
Engineers in Business Fellowship: http://www.smf.org.uk/run-
engineers-in-business-competition-at-your-university/
Professor Dick Whittington: [email protected]

Marketing Strategy
Operations plan
Risk &
strategic options
Financial plan
Resources available
Resources needed
Framework
(Burns, 2014)
Last week -
Business Planning Bootcamp
Explanation of the module, the assessments, icebreaker
What you bring to entrepreneurship
Developing creative ideas
This week:
What makes a good business plan

Business models
Plus some tips
Technology and tools
3
Reading
Bootcamp – creativity and finding ideas
Burns chapter 2: What you bring to entrepreneurship
Burns chapter 3: Finding your business idea
Today – business plans and business models
Burns chapter 1: The New Venture Creation Framework
Burns chapters 4 and 5: Structuring your business model and
crafting your value proposition
Why Write a Business Plan?
Trying to predict the future is like trying to drive down a
country road at night with no lights while looking out the back
window.
(Peter Drucker)

Peter Drucker – 20th century management consultant and author
For: E.g. Chandler (1961)
Needed for investors etc.
Provides useful check list
Planning process
Test different views of the world
Against: E.g. Mintzberg (1978,1985)
Creativity
Intuition
Spontaneity
Fast response
Impossible to predict
5
Why Write a Business Plan?
Crystallisation of our ideas
A yardstick by which we can measure ourselves
Essential for Investors
Shows you are serious about your business

If a business is designed to grow , it needs to have a business
plan that is adaptable for the different audiences.
It could be presented to banks, external investors, grant
providers, potential senior staff/partners
In classic SME world, often business plans are produced in a
hurry, sometimes overnight, in order to be ready for a new pitch
at an investor.
Additionally, SMEs rarely have enough time or money or people
to carry out the research you would like to undertake and in the
desire to achieve some measure of success, the data tended to
become whatever information was needed to support the idea,
i.e. not very rigorous
For some businesses there is simply no choice but to produce a
business plan. However, whether you are compelled to write a
business plan for the bank or not, you should at the very least
go through the processes of business planning. It help sort your
ideas out and identify any potential pitfalls before they happen.
If you cannot answer any of the sensible questions it should ring
a warning bell.

6
Dangers of writing a business plan
Stifles creativity
You believe it’s true
Lack of flexibility
Ignore new opportunities
Constrains responsiveness
Killer Questions
What’s important to you?
What are you trying to achieve?
Name your first 10 customers.
How many months until you are cash positive?
What is your gross profit and how does it compare to the
industry average?
Who is your nearest competitor and how will you differentiate
yourself?
How long does it take to make one of your products/services?
How will you know if you’ve been successful and how will you
measure this?
How will you organise to get things done as cheaply as possible
to the highest quality?

Anyone who has watched Dragons Den or Sharktank will
recognize that some entrepreneurs have great ideas but cant
answer the killer questions. Business planning helps you to
think these through and put together a better business as a
result.
8
Good business plans
Clearly state what the idea is, and who it is for.
Explain how your business will achieve its goals (marketing,
staffing, operations, suppliers, etc).
Provide financial information:
The amount of investment required, where it will come from,
and when/how it will be paid back
Cash flow
Breakeven point and likely profitability.
Summarise the idea and what is needed

9
No formula…
“There is no unique formula for preparing a business plan.
There is no perfect size or level of detail.
There is no single magic list of contents.
There is not even a single, ideal way of ordering the content.
By understanding the intended audience for the plan, the
expected uses and the overall objectives, it is possible for any
competent person to put together a very satisfactory business
plan.”
(Stutely, 2012:4)
But…
Link to VLE example business plans
There is a huge amount of information on the VLE to help you:
And the formative is based on a template:
Link to VLE formative template and example formatives

Business Model
Charity
Financial
Social
Commercial enterprise
Social enterprise
Co-operative
Focus of objectives
Family business
Co-operative – a business owned and managed by the people
who use their services or products.
Social enterprise – profit making organisation but where the
enterprise has the aim of solving social problems or effecting
social change. Eg: Body Shop, Fifteen.
12
Business Models for Growth
Licensing

Franchising
Branch network
Portfolio of businesses
Direct sales – Amazon
Advertising – YouTube
Pay-per click – Google
Subscription – Amazon
Freemium – SurveyMonkey
Affiliate – eBay
Online Business Models
Fundamental Questions
Who will pay?
Who will use?
B2B or B2C?

Local< National< International?
Direct or indirect?
Agents and brokers
Wholesalers and distributers
Good questions for your team to discuss
How often, when, and where should we meet?
How will we stay in touch between meetings?
What do we need to do to be ready to submit our business plans
on time?
What do we need to do to be ready to deliver our presentation
on time?
How much work and time will we commit to get this done,
being realistic about other competing activities?
What information do we need? Where will we find it? How will
we obtain it?
Should someone be selected as the leader or coordinator of the
group? If so, how?

Ask questions in lectures and seminars, or afterwards
Prepare and attend seminars; bring draft work, discuss your
ideas and work-in-progress with seminar tutors
Formative feedback seminar
Through the University of York study skills centre resources
Office hours and by appointment
Summative assessment feedback
Come and see us!
How do you get feedback and support with your learning?
You co-create this module........
Attend and participate in lectures and seminars
Meet regularly with your team
Read the assessment briefs and supporting documents
Keep a learning journal
Read the recommended core textbook chapters and the VLE
links
and
Have FUN!

Some points to remember about teamwork…
Working in teams can be motivating and fun, but it takes
communication, energy, time (+ diplomacy, negotiation,
patience, and accepting that you will probably not do everything
as you would if you were working on your own…)
Groups usually take a while to learn to work together. It is
normal to go through different phases.
Observations of previous Business Planning Teams:
Barriers to effective teamwork
‘Distance’ (working methods, geographic/physical distance,
technological, language) and differences in expectations,
assumptions, and communication stemming from these factors.
Jumping to and/or forcing a solution/idea
Failure to engage everyone in the team
Not realising that there will be peaks and troughs of
productivity throughout the project.

Lilian Soon
An overview of some collaboration tools and techniques to help
accelerate and maximise the effectiveness of your team.
Actions & Next Steps
Team Meetings
Decide how you will work together
Write up your meeting schedule for review at Seminar 1
Start to investigate your enterprise ideas/s
Lecture next week
Marketing Dr Nicky Forsdike
Independent study
Reading, learning journal and team meetings.

Appendix
Study Skills
Develop Your Study Skills
The Writing Centre
The Writing Centre is a free service open to all undergraduate
students interested in discussing and developing their academic
writing.
offers one-to-one drop-ins and appointments during which we
can help you work on aspects of academic writing such as:
Planning and structuring your assignment
developing your argument
integrating sources into your writing
expressing yourself clearly and accurately
do not offer:
a proof-reading or correction service.
advice on content

https://www.york.ac.uk/students/studying/develop-your-
skills/study-skills/writing/
The Maths Skills Centre
Appointment sessions
Online Resources on Yorkshare VLE
Drop-in sessions
SPSS & Statistics Workshops
www.york.ac.uk/maths-skills-centre/
http://vle.york.ac.uk/
www.york.ac.uk/student-skills-hub
Marketing for your new business venture
Business Planning

Lecture 5
1
Today’s Session
Understand principles underlying marketing for small
firms/start ups
What market will your business be in? Evaluating market size
Finding customers
“A small business is as different to a large business as a
caterpillar is to a butterfly.”
(Edith Penrose, 1959)

Resource constrained
No power in the market place
Face greater certainty internally
Face less certainty externally
So need to be creative!
No single definition
Marketing is about the creation of value
Traditionally was considered to be about businesses creating
profit and customers deriving utility/usefulness
Changing context: “the activity, set of institutions and
processes for creating, communicating, delivering and
exchanging offerings that have value for customers, clients,
partners and society at large” (AMA 2013)
The Marketing Concept
Quick check
Who has studied marketing before? Eg A-level, BTEC, 2nd year
Principles and Practice of Marketing, BSc in Marketing?
If you haven’t, or you’re a bit rusty, check out the additional
material that I’ll be putting onto the VLE to support your

learning
What follows is adapted to the context of a start up business!
Defining and Sizing the Market
6
Market sizing
Market sizing – Ampleforth Abbey CiderLevel of modelHow
defined (2014 figs)NumberTotal marketTotal value of all cider
sales in UK
£911.2mAvailable marketCraft cider market£75mTotal
achievable salesActual sales£0.12mTurning that into volume
salesAssumed average price of £2.8542,105 unitsMarket
shareTotal value/actual sales0.16
Note: in this case, sales and achievable market are the same –
the cider makers are working at full capacity.
Sources: http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/prodcom/prodcom-

provisional-results/popular-summer-products-sold-by-uk-
manufactures/sty-prod-summer.html;
http://www.harpers.co.uk/sectors/retailers/craft-cider-boom-
sees-brits-spend-extra-10m-on-pricy-ciders/370032.article;
http://www.insidermedia.com/yorkshire/entrepreneur/father-
wulstan-peterburs-ampleforth-abbey
Ampleforth abbey cider is produced by the Benedictine monks
at Ampleforth – it’s basically a micro-brewery for cider.
Total market is defined as total cider market
You might find this 3-scale version is enough to give you the
clarity you need on market size and the level of market share
you’re going for. Note too how it uses 3 different data sources
to compile the picture
Alex- the article this is based on talks about the cider “bringing
in £120k” – that could be profit, in which case unit sales will be
higher! But for the purposes of the exercise this will do! Could
point out that this a danger of using 3rd party data…so 42k
units is the minimum we think they’re selling – esay to do of
course when you’re inside the business – message here is that
students need to common sense their data, think hard about what

it’s saying, how robust it is, scope the risk around it
8
KEY MESSAGE
What we’re doing at each stage is a ‘reasonableness’ check
Does market really exist for the product we’re trying to sell?
Is it big enough, is it free enough of competition for us to make
the profit we need to?
What is the scale of the opportunity?
9
No such thing as risk free business – what we want to see is
that you’ve thought about, scoped and mitigated the risk – if
your break even point requires you take 100% of a highly
competed market you’ve got a problem! But if you’ve only got
to take 0.2% AND your competitor analysis shows you can
differentiate yourself in the market, then the risk looks like it
might be worth taking.
9
Many businesses face peaks and troughs - seasonality e.g.

Christmas; students; tourists
Consider counterbalancing seasonal peaks and troughs:
varying products or services
targeting different segments
Seasonality
Who are your customers and how will you attract their
attention?
Direct and indirect customers
Direct customer is someone dealing directly with the supplier
Indirect customer is someone who deals with the supplier
through an intermediary (agent, etc.)
In this simple example, the milk farmer’s direct customer is the
supermarket…

….and the milk farmer’s indirect customer is the consumer or
household shopper
Work out who your direct customers and consumers will be
What market do you want to serve?
Who will your customer(s) be on Day 1 of your business?
This Photo by Unknown Author is licensed under CC BY-NC
Eg:
Is your business idea related to sustainable clothing?
Or clothing for women aged 50-70?
14
What is your marketing philosophy?
Will you sell your product/service once to lots of customers?
(transactional marketing)
Or do you aim to build long-term relationships and repeat
business? (relationship marketing)
Will you customise your product for each customer
(personalisation?) or mass produce it?

Can you build some form of experience into the product/service
(experiential marketing)?
Identifying your market
Segmentation and targeting
Geographic - where people live)
Demographic - based on age, gender, family size, education,
income, and social class)
Psychographic – personality, values, lifestyle
Behavioural - how the product/service is used
BUT dangers in trying to ‘average out’ the market
16
16
Segmentation

Source: http://segments.sportengland.org/querySegments.aspx
17
17
Positioning
Positioning is the act of designing the company’s offering and
image to create a meaningful and distinct competitive position
in the target customer’s mind (Kotler, 2003).
18
18
Positioning
Image source: http://www.businessinsider.com/patagonia-
business-strategy-2014-9?IR=T

19
Low cost, issues about supply chain
Premium price, focussed on environmental issues
19
How will you attract prospective customers?
Branding: bundles of values
Integrated marketing communications: Be consistent across all
channels to all stakeholder audiences (not just customers)
Guerilla marketing: unconventional advertising strategies
Social media marketing/PR
BE CREATIVE!
Concepts that might be useful
“A customer experience represented by a collection of images
and ideas; often, it refers to a symbol such as a name, logo,
slogan and design scheme
21

Nike’s IMC
Nike community
Nike GPS app, Nike GPS Sportwatch, and Nike Fuel Band
Traditional media:
TV, print etc.
CSR
PR
Employee relationships
Digital
Social media:
Internet ads,
a YouTube channel,
Facebook pages
Twitter-enabled billboards
Internet paid searches
Direct marketing
Mobile marketing
Experiential
(e.g. Nike iD, an online store where customers could design
their own shoes
Sponsorship

Lecture 4Evaluation and Mitigation of RisksCrucial considera.docx

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