1. 足球比赛预测
主讲人：卢亮
组长：徐飒
组员：陈新平、董师师、刘禄斌、李成果

2. 两种预测方法
• 整体预测法
• 过程预测法

3. 整体预测法
• Forecasting the Professional Team Sporting
Events: Evidence from Euro 2000 and 2004
Football Tournaments(Ferda HALICIOGLU,
2005 )
• There exists empirical evidence that the tight
competition in domestic football would
improve international success considerably.

4. 整体预测法(2)
• The seasonal CV(coefficient of variation)
values computed from the end-of-season
points of a domestic football league.
• Short-term, mid-term and long-term seasonal
CV values.
• This forecasting approach provides
significantly reliable results in the case of Euro
2000 but not in the case of Euro 2004.

5. 整体预测法(3)

6. 整体预测法(4)
• 优点： Short-term, mid-term and long-term
seasonal CV values容易计算或近似，如使用
UEFA的Season country coefficients 和Country
coefficients.
• 缺点：没有考虑分组情况、比赛过程；国
内联赛排名与国家队国际比赛并不直接相
关。

7. 过程预测法
• 排名与分级
FIFA World Ranking
Elo Ratings System

8. FIFA World Ranking
特点：官方、公认、积分
方式公开、定期更新

9. FIFA World Ranking (Calculation)
• Calculation of points for a single match
P=MxIxTxC
• M: Points for match result
• I: Importance of match
• T: Strength of opposing team
• C: Strength of confederation
(from fifa.com)

10. Elo Ratings System
• ELO等级分制度是指由匈牙利裔美国物理学
家Elo创建的一个衡量各类对弈活动水平的
评价方法，是当今对弈水平评估的公认的
权威方法。被广泛用于国际象棋、围棋、
足球、篮球等运动。(Wikipedia)
• 特点：严格的数学模型、通行于对弈类活
动、方便计算双方胜率、以及根据对阵结
果进行更新反馈。

11. Elo Ratings System(计分方法)
• Elo模型使用Logistic distribution
• 假设选手(球队)A和B的当前等级分为RA和RB
• 假如选手在比赛中的真实得分与其胜率期
望值不同，则等级分要作相应的调整

12. Elo Ratings
(from eloratings.net)

13. 过程预测法(2)
• 过程预测法可以充分利用FIFA World Ranking
或Elo Ratings System进行单场比赛的预测(后
者还可以进行反馈).
• 根据小组赛和淘汰赛阶段的分组对阵情况
预测各球队的胜率，进而预测冠军归属。

14. 过程预测法(3)
• 优点：考虑到分组情况、比赛过程等因素；
可以根据实际比赛结果对预测结果进行更
新。在预测模型中可以对球队数据进行反
馈。
• 缺点：预测模型复杂，数据量和计算量较
大。

15. 预测实例：The Castrol EDGE UEFA
EURO 2012™ Tournament Calculator
• Predict by evaluating each team's attack and
defense.
• Together with the structure of the
tournament, to predict how well each team
will do.
• 过程预测法
(from castroledge.com)

16. The Castrol EDGE UEFA EURO 2012™
Tournament Calculator Explained
• Step 1:use goals scored and conceded to
generate the attack and defense ratings for
each team. More recent goals are given
greater relevance than those scored longer
ago.

17. The Castrol EDGE UEFA EURO 2012™
Tournament Calculator Explained(2)
• Step 2:take the attack and defense ratings and
convert them to average number of goals
scored for Team A vs Team B.
Home team: Average number of
Team A: Attack = 0.8 Team A goals:
Defense = 1.1 0.8 x 0.7 x 1.4 = 0.784
Home advantage = 1.4 Average number of
Away team: Team B goals:
Team B: Attack = 1.7 1.7 x 1.1 = 1.870
Defense = 0.7

18. The Castrol EDGE UEFA EURO 2012™
Tournament Calculator Explained(3)
• Step 3: feed the average number of goals into
a probability distribution model to calculate
the likelihood of a team scoring a specific
number of goals.
Probability Team A score: Probability Team B score:
0 goals = 46% 0 goals = 15%
1 goals = 36% 1 goals = 29%
2 goals = 14% etc. 2 goals = 27% etc.

19. The Castrol EDGE UEFA EURO 2012™
Tournament Calculator Explained(4)
• Step 4:Through these percentages we can
calculate the probability of any score.

20. The Castrol EDGE UEFA EURO 2012™ Tournament Calculator Results

21. 参考文献
• Forecasting the Professional Team Sporting Events: Evidence
from Euro 2000 and 2004 Football Tournaments (Ferda
HALICIOGLU, 2005 )
• Forecasting sports tournaments by ratings of (prob)abilities A
comparison for the EURO 2008 (Christoph Leitner etc, 2010)
• FIFA World Ranking (fifa.com)
• Wikipedia: Elo rating system, Logistic distribution
(wikipedia.org)
• World Football Elo Ratings (eloratings.net)
• Castrol Football EURO 2012 Tournament Calculator
(castroledge.com)

22. 谢谢！