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Climate science overview – Luleka Dlamini
- 1. The IPCC's Special Report on 1.5C warming: what business should consider next Luleka Dlamini lulehdlamini@gmail.com
- 4. Climate variability • Variability in the climate system occurs at a number of scales: Time (minutes to millennia) Space (meters to 1000's KM)
- 5. Processes that feedback to the climate • Atmosphere - radiative feedback processes/cloud Feedback • Ocean - dynamic feedbacks (thermohaline Circulation) • Cryosphere - Albedo and land cover change • Land surface - Land cover change / biogeochemical feedbacks Water vapour feedback
- 7. 1988 IPCC – jointly established by WMO and UNEP 1990 FAR 1995 SAR 2001 TAR 2007 AR4 AR5 AR6 2013/2014 2016-2022 SR1.5 UNFCCC Global Stocktake 2018 2023 1970s-1980s Kyoto Protocol UNFCCC Adaptation 2 C limit Paris Agreement Nobel Peace Prize
- 8. Why an IPCC Special Report? • Paris Agreement • “Well below 2⚬C…. Explore potential for 1.5⚬C” • Nationally Determined Contributions • COP 21 “…notes that much greater emission reduction efforts will be required than those associated with the intended nationally determined contributions”
- 10. Atmospheric CO2 and temperature
- 11. Atmospheric CO2 and temperature
- 12. 3 The report in numbers 91 Authors from 40 Countries 133 Contributing authors 6 000 Studies 1 113 Reviewers 42 001 Comments
- 13. What did the SR1.5 say?
- 14. What did the SR1.5 say? • Still geo-physically possible to limit warming to 1.5⚬C • We just passed 1⚬C (0.8-1.2) and are warming at just over 0.2⚬C (0.1-0.3) per decade • 1.5⚬C around 2040 • Requires transformation of urban, land-use, energy and industrial systems • To have a 50% chance of 1.5⚬C you have to reduce emissions by 45% by 2030 • Carbon neutral by 2050, at most 7% coal • The difference between 1.5⚬C and 2⚬C is significant and worth avoiding • Some coral reefs and fishing stocks • Some summer sea ice
- 15. Pathways to 1.5⚬C •Unprecedented changes in urban, energy, industrial and land-use systems • Analogues exist, but urgency and scale is unprecedented!
- 16. Pathways to 1.5⚬C •Unprecedented changes in urban, energy, industrial and land-use systems • Analogues exist, but urgency and scale is unprecedented! •Requires 1.5-2.5% increase in investment and rapid re-allocation of existing investment • Climate finance triple jump •There is a right way and a wrong way to try and limit warming to 1.5⚬C • Harnessing SDGs • Between 100-1,000 Gton CDR by 2100 depending on response
- 17. What has happened since? • Youth involvement – Climate Strikes, Extinction Rebellion • UK Energy Policy? • No coal by 2025, Net Zero by 2050 • First coal free week since 1882 • Renewable energy prices continue to fall and storage improves • Coal lobby is in a corner – reputational risk, biophysical risk, financial risk • R&D is shifting
- 18. So what for South Africa? • The world does not end at 1.5C, but unfortunate sectors and regions will require massive adaptation (South Africa) • Insurance industry will need a new business model (Nate Silver) • Enable an increase in GFCF (1.5-2.5%) • Coal, Gas, Renewable Energy will be in the spotlight • ITSMO • If SA cuts coal by 50% it will go from 4% to roughly 40% of global supply and energy will remain expensive • Competitive advantage reconfigured with winners and losers • “Gross negligence” of fund managers? • Litigation – 500 cases underway globally - not possible to say ”we did not know” • Just transition – not just ‘decarbonizing inequality/ poverty’ • More jobs, decent work • More resilient agriculture • More livable cities and safer mobility