Professor Paul Coomes, Ph.D., from the University of Louisville College of Business gave a presentation on February 17, 2011 at the UK/CLE 13th Biennial Business Associations Law Institute. A copy of his PowerPoint presentation "Current Economic Conditions and Why This Was Not the \'Worst Economic Crisis\' since the Depression" is now available on the KBA Business Law Section\'s webpage at http://www.kybar.org/350

1. Current Economic Conditions
and why this was not the ‘worst
economic crisis’ since the Depression
by
Paul Coomes, Ph.D.
Professor of Economics
February 17, 2011
An economist is
 a dismal scientist
 a tenured professor who works 20 hours a
week
 someone who couldn’t make a living in the
business world

 someone who is pretty good with numbers, but
doesn’t have the personality to be an accountant
This last recession
 is still underway
 represents the worst economic crisis since the
Great Depression ….
 … and therefore calls for drastic measures by
governments, or….

 was a correction to a housing bubble, and
triggered by a financial crisis in 2007

2. Length of post-WWII Recessions, from National Bureau of
Economic Research
(months from peak to trough)
20
18
18
16 16
16
14
12 11 11
10 10
10
8 8 8
8
6
6
4
2
0
peak - date recession began
The highest unemployment rate during the
latest recession was 10.1%, in October 2009.
This is
 higher than during the Great Depression
 higher than the 1974 and 1982 recession

 less than 1982 recession
Unemployment Rate
percent of labor force unsuccessfully seeking work (through 12/10)
12
11
10
reached 10.8% in 1982 Peaked at
reached 9.0% in 1975
9 10.1% in
October 2009;
8
now at 9.2%
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, from Current Population Survey, monthly, seasonally adjusted
0
1968
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2008
2009
2010

3. At the worst of the latest recession, 58.2% of
adults were employed. This is
 the lowest since the Great Depression
 about the same as most recessions
 higher than the 1974 recession

 higher than the 1974 and 1982 recessions
Employment to Population Ratio
% of those aged 16+ working, male and female (through December 2010)
66 peaked at
64.6% in 2000
64
62
peaked at 60.1%
in 1979
60
peaked at
58.2% in 1973
58
dropped to 58.2%
dropped to 57% in 1982
56
dropped to 56% in 1975
54
52
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, from Current Population Survey, monthly, seasonally adjusted
50
1968
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2008
2009
2010
Employment to Population Ratio
% of those aged 16+ working (through December 2010)
85
80
75
Males
70
65 Over past forty years, male rate has ‘Mancession’
60
fallen by 14 percentage points, while
female rate has risen by 14
55 percentage points
Females
50
45
Big story: women more educated, taking
40
office jobs, fewer children; over half of
women working outside the home.
35
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, from Current Population Survey, monthly, seasonally adjusted.
30
1968
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2008
2009
2010

4. The stock market, as measured by the Dow Jones
Industrial Average, is now
 at its lowest level since the Great Depression
 is about the same as it was in the 1970s and
early 1980s
 is 5 times higher than in the 1970s

 is 10 times higher than in the 1970s
Dow Jones Industrial Average
monthly closing, 1970 to 2010 (January)
16,000
14,000
yesterday’s close = 12,288
12,000
trading in 10‐12,000 range for a
decade
10,000
8,000
the great boom, 1985 to 2000
6,000
4,000
in the 700 to 1,000 range for
twelve years, 1970 to 1982
2,000
0
1970
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2010
Since the 2007 financial crisis, home values in
Louisville have on average
 fallen by 25%

 fallen by 2.5%
 remain unchanged
 risen by 10%

5. Housing bubbles in Florida, California, Nevada, Arizona………..
Annual Home Price Appreciation, Last Twelve Years by Quarter
50%
Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency; index of value of existing single-family homes in repeat
sales or refinancings. Data through September 2010.
Las Vegas Bubble popped in 2006
40%
Naples
30%
20%
Los Angeles
10%
United States
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
-40%
hit bottom at end of 2008
Among peers, only Jacksonville and Richmond had boom/bust.
Annual Home Price Appreciation, Last Twelve Years by Quarter
25%
Source: US Office of Housing Enterprise Oversight; index of value of existing single-family
homes in repeat sales or refinancings. Data through September 2010.
20%
Jacksonville
Richmond
15%
10%
Nashville
5%
0% Louisville
Birmingham
Indianapolis
Memphis
Dayton
Cincinnati
-5% United States
-10%
Jacksonville
-15%
No sign of any price bubbles or busts in our region….
Annual Home Price Appreciation, Last Decade by Quarter
50%
Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency; index of value of existing single-family homes in repeat
sales or refinancings. Data through September 2010.
40%
Naples
30%
20%
10%
9 KY metros
0%
-10% Bowling Green, Cincinnati‐NKY, Clarksville‐Hopkinsville,
Elizabethtown, Evansville‐Henderson, Huntington‐Ashland,
-20% Lexington, Louisville, Owensboro.
-30%
-40%

6. The average number of persons living in each
house now is
 1.6 persons per household

 2.6 persons
 3.6 persons
 4.6 persons
Average Household Size, United States
World War II to present
3.75
3.56
3.50
3.25
Responsible for perhaps one‐
persons per household
third of housing boom
3.00 Appears to have
reached a natural
lower bound
2.75
2.59
2.50 For example, in the Louisville MSA, there was a
decline in household size from 2.57 to 2.46 between
1990 and 2000.
2.25
Even with no population growth, that would result
in 17,000 more households.
Source: US Census Bureau, Current Population Survey
2.00
Many people are worried about the lack of
‘affordable housing’. The Louisville MSA has
350,000 owner‐occupied homes. Of those, how
many are valued at less than $100,000?
 10,000 homes
 40,000 homes

 90,000 homes
 150,000 homes

7. Value of Owner‐occupied Housing Units, Louisville MSA, 2008
$100,000 to $149,999 92,397
$150,000 to $199,999 66,566
$50,000 to $99,999 62,544
$200,000 to $299,999 61,139
$300,000 to $499,999 29,972
Less than $50,000 24,085
$500,000 to $999,999 10,053
There were 350,000 units, with median value of $147,700.
$1,000,000 or more 3,039 Source: US Census Bureau, American Community Survey
0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 90,000 100,000
The average annual compensation of public
sector workers is
 half that for private sector workers
 about the same as private sector workers
 20% more

 40% more
Average annual compensation per job, private sector vs. government,
Kentucky, last 40 years
$70,000
$60,000
Government
$58,827
$50,000
$40,000
$30,000
Private industry
$36,050
$20,000
$10,000
Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis
$0
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009

8. Ratio of average annual government employee compensation to private
industry employees, Kentucky, last 30 years
2.60
Kentucky Jobs, Private Industry and Government, 2009
2.40
Average
Federal ‐ civilian
Annual
2.20 Number of Compensation
Jobs per Job
Private industry 1,880,119 $36,050
2.00
Government, all 371,273 Federal ‐ military
$58,827
1.80 Federal ‐ civilian 40,064 $87,899
Federal ‐ military 54,773 $91,975
State government, including public universities 96,914 $48,932
1.60
Local government, including public K‐12 179,522 $47,568
Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis
1.40 State government
1.20
Local government,
including public K‐12
1.00
1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009
The top 3% of tax payers in US account for
 10% of federal individual income tax payments
 20%
 30%

 50%
Distribution of Taxpayers, Federal Individual Income Tax, 2008
by adjusted gross income
$10,000,000 or more 7.03%
0.01%
$5,000,000 under $10,000,000 3.49%
0.01%
6.30%
Top 0.6% of Top 3% of
$2,000,000 under $5,000,000 0.06%
income earners income earners
2.51%
$1,500,000 under $2,000,000 0.04% paid 33% of paid 52% of
$1,000,000 under $1,500,000 0.10%
4.04% income taxes income taxes
$500,000 under $1,000,000 9.26%
0.40% share of all income taxes paid
$200,000 under $500,000 19.02%
2.44%
$100,000 under $200,000 22.68%
9.73%
$75,000 under $100,000 9.02%
8.29%
$50,000 under $75,000 9.05%
13.52%
share of all tax returns
$25,000 to $50,000 6.42%
24.12%
$9,000 to $25,000 1.12% Bottom 41% of
24.62%
Less than $9,000 0.04% income earners paid
14.99%
1% of income taxes
No adjusted gross income [1] 0.01% Source: IRS Statistics of Income
1.66%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%

9. January 20, 2009
Front page, top headline, first paragraph
Obama to Call for a New Era of Responsibility
by Laura Meckler and Jonathan Weisman
Washington - Americans poured into the nation’s capital to celebrate the
inauguration of the first black president with parties and parades. But with the U.S.
in its worst economic crisis since the Depression and at war on two fronts, Barack
Obama was expected to embrace a new culture of responsibilty when he takes office
at noon…
The Wall Street Journal is
 a mouthpiece of the Republican Party
 a socialist rag

 a company that employs a lot of journalists who
feel that their occupation is in crisis
This decade, the fastest growing market in the
Kentucky‐Southern Indiana area was:
 Louisville
 Evansville

 Bowling Green
 Somerset

10. Population Growth Rates, %, 2000 to 2009
Bowling Green, KY 15.8
Clarksville, TN‐KY 15.7
Lexington‐Fayette, KY 15.3
Richmond‐Berea, KY 14.1
Mount Sterling, KY 9.6
Fastest growth rates along
London, KY 9.5
I‐65, I‐75, and Fort
Louisville, KY‐IN 8.3
Campbell area
Somerset, KY 8.2
Corbin, KY 8.2
Cincinnati, OH‐KY‐IN 8.1
Glasgow, KY 7.8
Danville, KY 6.6
Campbellsville, KY 6.5
Murray, KY 6.4
Frankfort, KY 5.9
Bloomington, IN 5.7
Elizabethtown, KY 5.5
Madison, IN 4.1
Owensboro, KY 3.4
Source: US Census Bureau
Scottsburg, IN 2.9
0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 18.0
Population Growth Rates, %, 2000 to 2009
Washington, IN 2.7
Evansville, IN‐KY 2.7
Seymour, IN 2.5
Jasper, IN 2.2
Greensburg, IN 2.1
Mayfield, KY 1.9
North Vernon, IN 1.8
Maysville, KY 0.8
Paducah, KY‐IL
‐0.2
Bedford, IN
‐0.2
Terre Haute, IN
‐0.7
Madisonville, KY
‐0.8
Huntington‐Ashland, WV‐KY‐OH
‐1.0
‐1.8 Central City, KY
‐3.4 Vincennes, IN
‐3.6 Middlesboro, KY
‐3.7 Harrisburg, IL
Source: US Census Bureau
‐4.9 Union City, TN‐KY
‐6.0 ‐5.0 ‐4.0 ‐3.0 ‐2.0 ‐1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0
Components of Population Change, 2000 to 2009
Cincinnati, OH‐KY‐IN
Louisville, KY‐IN US‐born
Lexington‐Fayette, KY migrants to Births minus deaths
Clarksville, TN‐KY Louisville, International migration
Bowling Green, KY Lexington, Domestic migration
Richmond‐Berea, KY Bowling Green, statistical discrepancy
Bloomington, IN
Richmond
Evansville, IN‐KY
Elizabethtown, KY Lots of babies at Ft.
London, KY
Foreign‐born Campbell, Ft. Knox, E’ville
Somerset, KY migrants to
Frankfort, KY Cincinnati,
Mount Sterling, KY Louisville,
Owensboro, KY Lexington,
Glasgow, KY Bowling Green,
Danville, KY Bloomington
Corbin, KY
Source: US Census Bureau
Murray, KY
‐50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000

11. Components of Population Change, 2000 to 2009
Campbellsville, KY
Madison, IN
Jasper, IN
Seymour, IN
Washington, IN
Mayfield, KY
Scottsburg, IN
Greensburg, IN Births minus deaths
North Vernon, IN International migration
Maysville, KY
Domestic migration
Bedford, IN
statistical discrepancy
Paducah, KY‐IL
Madisonville, KY
Central City, KY
Harrisburg, IL
Middlesboro, KY
Terre Haute, IN
Vincennes, IN
Union City, TN‐KY
Source: US Census Bureau
Huntington‐Ashland, WV‐KY‐OH
‐5,000 ‐4,000 ‐3,000 ‐2,000 ‐1,000 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000
The center of the US population east of the Rocky
Mountains is:
 Indianapolis
 Evansville

 Danville
 Nashville

12. Thank you