2. In this chapter, you will learn…
an overview of recent work in two areas:
Real Business Cycle theory
New Keynesian Economics
CHAPTER 19 Advances in Business Cycle Theory slide 2
3. The Theory of Real Business
Cycles
All prices are flexible, even in short run:
thus, money is neutral, even in short run.
classical dichotomy holds at all times.
Fluctuations in output, employment, and
other variables are the optimal responses
to exogenous changes in the economic
environment.
Productivity shocks are the primary cause of
economic fluctuations.
CHAPTER 19 Advances in Business Cycle Theory slide 3
4. The economics of Robinson
Crusoe
Economy consists of a single producer-consumer,
like Robinson Crusoe on a desert island.
Crusoe divides his time between
leisure
working
catching fish (production)
making fishing nets (investment)
Crusoe optimizes given the constraints he faces.
CHAPTER 19 Advances in Business Cycle Theory slide 4
5. Shocks in the Crusoe island
economy
Big school of fish swims by the island.
GDP rises:
Crusoe’s fishing productivity is higher
Crusoe’s employment rises:
He decides to shift some time from leisure
to fishing to take advantage of the high
productivity
CHAPTER 19 Advances in Business Cycle Theory slide 5
6. Shocks in the Crusoe island
economy
Big storm hits the island.
GDP falls:
The storm reduces productivity, so Crusoe
spends less time fishing for consumption.
Investment falls, because it’s easy to postpone
making nets until storm passes.
Employment falls: Since he’s not spending as
much time fishing or making nets, Crusoe
decides to enjoy more leisure time.
CHAPTER 19 Advances in Business Cycle Theory slide 6
7. Economic fluctuations as
optimal responses to shocks
In Real Business Cycle theory,
fluctuations in our economy
are similar to those in Crusoe’s economy.
The shocks are not always desirable.
The shocks are not always desirable.
But once they occur, fluctuations in
But once they occur, fluctuations in
output, employment, and other
output, employment, and other
variables are the optimal
variables are the optimal
responses to them.
responses to them.
CHAPTER 19 Advances in Business Cycle Theory slide 7
8. The debate over RBC theory
…boils down to four issues:
1. Do changes in employment reflect voluntary
changes in labor supply?
2. Does the economy experience large,
exogenous productivity shocks in the short run?
3. Is money really neutral in the short run?
4. Are wages and prices flexible in the short run?
Do they adjust quickly to keep supply and
demand in balance in all markets?
CHAPTER 19 Advances in Business Cycle Theory slide 8
9. 1. The labor market
Intertemporal substitution of labor:
In RBC theory, workers are willing to reallocate
labor over time in response to changes in the
reward to working now versus later.
The intertemporal (1)+ rW 1
relative wage equals W2
where W1 is the wage in period 1 (the present)
and W2 is the wage in period 2 (the future).
CHAPTER 19 Advances in Business Cycle Theory slide 9
10. 1. The labor market
In RBC theory,
shocks cause fluctuations in the intertemporal
relative wage
workers respond by adjusting labor supply
this causes employment and output to fluctuate
Critics argue that
labor supply is not very sensitive to the
intertemporal real wage
high unemployment observed in recessions
is mainly involuntary
CHAPTER 19 Advances in Business Cycle Theory slide 10
11. 2. Technology shocks
In RBC theory, economic fluctuations are caused
by productivity shocks.
Solow residual: a measure of productivity shocks,
shows the change in output that cannot be
explained by changes in capital and labor.
RBC theory implies that the Solow residual
should be highly correlated with output.
Is it?
CHAPTER 19 Advances in Business Cycle Theory slide 11
12. 2. Technology shocks
Output growth and the Solow residual
Percent 8 Output
per year growth
6
4
2
0
Solow
-2 residual
-4
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
CHAPTER 19 Advances in Business Cycle Theory slide 12
13. 2. Technology shocks
Proponents of RBC theory argue that the
strong correlation between output growth and
Solow residuals is evidence that productivity
shocks are an important source of economic
fluctuations.
Critics note that the measured Solow residual
is biased to appear more cyclical than the true,
underlying technology.
CHAPTER 19 Advances in Business Cycle Theory slide 13
14. 3. The neutrality of money
RBC critics note that reductions in money growth
and inflation are almost always associated with
periods of high unemployment and low output.
RBC proponents respond by claiming that the
money supply is endogenous:
Suppose output is expected to fall.
Central bank reduces money supply in
response to an expected fall in money demand.
CHAPTER 19 Advances in Business Cycle Theory slide 14
15. 4. Wage and price flexibility
RBC theory assumes that wages and prices are
completely flexible, so markets always clear.
RBC proponents argue that the degree of
price stickiness occurring in the real world is not
important for understanding economic fluctuations.
RBC proponents also assume flexible prices
to be consistent with microeconomic theory.
Critics believe that wage and price stickiness
explains involuntary unemployment and the
non-neutrality of money.
CHAPTER 19 Advances in Business Cycle Theory slide 15
16. New Keynesian Economics
Most economists believe that
short-run fluctuations in output and employment
represent deviations from the natural rate,
and that these deviations occur because wages
and prices are sticky.
New Keynesian research attempts to explain the
stickiness of wages and prices by examining the
microeconomics of price adjustment.
CHAPTER 19 Advances in Business Cycle Theory slide 16
17. Small menu costs and
aggregate-demand externalities
There are externalities to price adjustment:
A price reduction by one firm causes the overall
price level to fall (albeit slightly).
This raises real money balances and increases
aggregate demand, which benefits other firms.
Menu costs are the costs of changing prices
(e.g., costs of printing new menus, mailing new catalogs)
In the presence of menu costs, sticky prices may be
optimal for the firms setting them even though they
are undesirable for the economy as a whole.
CHAPTER 19 Advances in Business Cycle Theory slide 17
18. CASE STUDY:
How large are menu costs?
A 1997 study using data from supermarket chains.
costs of changing prices include:
labor cost of changing shelf tags
costs of printing, delivering new tags
cost of supervising this process
results:
menu costs = 0.7% of revenue, 35% of net profits
CHAPTER 19 Advances in Business Cycle Theory slide 18
19. Recessions as coordination failure
In recessions, output is low, workers are
unemployed, and factories sit idle.
If all firms and workers would reduce their
prices, then economy would return to full
employment.
But no individual firm or worker would be willing
to cut his price without knowing that others will
cut their prices. Hence, prices remain high and
the recession continues.
CHAPTER 19 Advances in Business Cycle Theory slide 19
20. The staggering of wages and
prices
All wages and prices do not adjust at the same
time.
This staggering of wage & price adjustment
causes the overall price level to move slowly in
response to demand changes.
Each firm and worker knows that when it
reduces its nominal price, its relative price will be
low for a time. This makes firms reluctant to
reduce their prices.
CHAPTER 19 Advances in Business Cycle Theory slide 20
21. Top reasons for sticky prices:
Results from surveys of managers
1. Coordination failure: firms hold back on price
changes, waiting for others to go first
2. Firms delay raising prices until costs rise
3. Firms prefer to vary other product attributes, such
as quality, service, or delivery lags
4. Implicit contracts: firms tacitly agree to stabilize
prices, perhaps out of ‘fairness’ to customers
5. Explicit contracts that fix nominal prices
6. Menu costs
CHAPTER 19 Advances in Business Cycle Theory slide 21
22. CONCLUSION:
The frontiers of research
This chapter has explored two distinct
approaches to the study of business cycles:
- Real Business Cycle theory
- New Keynesian theory
Not all economists fall entirely into one camp
or the other.
An increasing amount of research incorporates
insights from both schools of thought to advance
our understanding of economic fluctuations.
CHAPTER 19 Advances in Business Cycle Theory slide 22
23. Chapter Summary
1. Real Business Cycle Theory
assumes perfect flexibility of wages and prices
shows how fluctuations arise in response to
productivity shocks
suggests that the fluctuations are optimal given the
shocks
2. Points of controversy in RBC theory
intertemporal substitution of labor
the importance of technology shocks
the neutrality of money
the flexibility of prices and wages
CHAPTER 19 Advances in Business Cycle Theory slide 23
24. Chapter Summary
3. New Keynesian Economics
accepts the traditional model of aggregate
demand and supply
attempts to explain the stickiness of wages and
prices with microeconomic analysis, including
menu costs
coordination failure
staggering of wages and prices
CHAPTER 19 Advances in Business Cycle Theory slide 24
Editor's Notes
This brief chapter introduces the student to basic concepts in Real Business Cycle theory and New Keynesian theory. It could be covered in one class session. This chapter is especially useful for prospective doctoral students.
The real question here is: what 5 compact discs did Robinson bring to the island? Doesn’t it seem silly to ponder the “desert island disc” question? I mean, if you knew you were going to be stranded on a desert island, you’d avoid the trip altogether rather than bringing your five favorite discs. And do desert islands even have CD players? I didn’t see one in the Tom Hanks film “Castaway” or in the hit TV show “Lost”. Although, the plane-crash survivors in “Lost” did find a record player. Maybe instead of packing our five favorite CDs on flights across the ocean, we should be bringing our five favorite LPs…
This slide and the next one each present an example of a productivity shock, giving intuition for the responses of economic variables to that shock. The textbook also describes a third shock, an attack by the natives that spurs an increase in “defense spending” and a “wartime boom” in the economy.
Notice that the intertemporal relative wage can be expressed as: the current wage divided by the present value of the future wage.
Figure 19-1 on p.535. The Solow residual is strongly correlated with output growth.
Why is the Solow residual biased? In a recession, firms cut back on their output. But because of the costs of firing workers (such as lower morale among the remaining workers) and the costs of hiring workers back when the recession ends, firms “hoard labor” rather than let go of it. They give unneeded workers tasks such as organizing the file cabinets, or let workers take more coffee breaks. In booms, firms don’t hire as many new workers as theory might suggest, instead making their existing workers work harder. As a result, observed employment appears less cyclical than firms’ true use of labor in production, and the Solow residual then appears to move more closely with output.
This case study appears in the textbook on p.539. It is new to the 6 th edition. See p.539 for more information about this research.
The textbook (Fig. 19-2, p.540) shows a game between two firms in which both would be better off if both cut prices, but each is unwilling to cut price first. In the equilibrium, neither cuts its price.
The text does not discuss contracts, but contracts may also explain price stickiness: The cost of negotiating may be sufficiently high that buyers and sellers agree to a contract that fixes the price for the duration of the contract’s life. However, we are trying to explain the stickiness of nominal prices. One wonders why contracts do not specify a real price (i.e., index the nominal price to a measure of the price level), as the elimination of inflation uncertainty would make buyer and seller better off (provided both are risk averse).
See Table 19-2 on p.543 for more information. This slide lists theories of price stickiness in the order in which they were most frequently cited by managers. The survey considered 12 theories; this slide lists the top 6, all of which were accepted by 30% or more of the managers that responded to the survey.