Market multiple table 11.8.2021 - Kurt Altrichter

1. Market Influence Current Situation Things Get Better If… Things Get Worse If…
Fed Tapering Pace
The Fed announced tapering of $15
billion/month for November and
December, and “similar” amounts in
2022.
The Fed confirms that tapering will
stay at $15 billion/month, meaning
QE ends in June.
The Fed implies that tapering will be
accelerated, meaning QE could end in
April.
First Rate Hike
Markets expect the first rate hike will
occur in December 2022, a few
months after QE ends.
The December rate hike is
consistently refer-enced by Fed
officials over the coming months.
Markets expect the first rate hike
sooner than December (June or
September).
Washington/Tax Hikes
The spending bill is likely to end up
around $1.75 trillion and not have
any substantial tax increases for
people or corporations.
A corporate tax increase is
reintroduced and passed, or we see
increas-es in capital gains taxes or a
“wealth tax.”
Democrats pass the $1.75 trillion
spending bill and reinstate full “SALT”
tax deductions.
Treasury Yields
Treasury yields have fallen from
recent highs in part due to “not
hawkish” decisions by major central
banks (ECB/BOE/Fed).
Global Treasury yields stay stable and
slowly move higher reflecting better
economic growth.
The 10-year yield resumes a rapid
rise and moves quickly toward 2%
(and higher).
Expected 2022 S&P 500 EPS $223 $225 $215
Multiple 20X-21X 21X 17X-18X
S&P 500 Range 4,460-4,683 4,725 3,655-3,870
S&P 500 Target (Midpoint) 4,572 4,725 3,763
Change from today -2.7% 0.5% -19.9%
A Game of Market Multiples (Updated 11/8/2021)
For more information, contact, Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS® | President of Ivory Hill at 952.828.5336 or email info@ivoryhill.com
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