Market multiple table 12.8.2021 - Kurt S Altrichter

1. Market Influence Current Situation Things Get Better If… Things Get Worse If…
Fed Tapering Pace
Markets expect the Fed to double
the current pace of tapering to $30
billion/month starting in January
2022.
The Fed accelerates tapering but
by less than the expectation (so
$20 or $25 billion/month).
The Fed accelerates tapering by
more than $30 billion/month.
First Rate Hikes for
2022
The market now expects the Fed to
hike rates in June, and for two rate
hikes in 2022.
The Fed implies that it will hike
rates after June and/or will only
hike once in 2022.
The Fed confirms it will hike in
June, if not sooner, and leaves the
door open to three hikes in 2022.
Omicron
Initial evidence implies that while
Omicron is more contagious than
the Delta variant, it produces only
mild symptoms and as such it’s a
minor health risk and won’t cause
lock-downs.
Pfizer and Moderna confirm that
existing vaccines are effective (so
say > 60%) at preventing severe
illness with Omicron.
Pfizer and Moderna determine
that current vaccines are
ineffective against Omicron.
Expected 2022 S&P 500
EPS
$225 $227 $215
Multiple 20X-21X 21X 18X
S&P 500 Range 4,500-4,725 4,767 3,870
S&P 500 Target
(Midpoint)
4,613 4,767 3,870
Change from today -1.7% 1.7% -17.4%
A Game of Market Multiples (Updated 12/8/2021)
Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS® | Fiduciary Advisor | President of Ivory Hill
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