This document describes how Senturion, a predictive analysis tool, can be used to simulate political decision making and bargaining processes in Bolivia around issues of gas nationalization and coca leaf policy. It outlines how Senturion works by profiling stakeholders, applying game theory and decision models, and forecasts outcomes. The document then provides examples of how Senturion was used to analyze these two issues in Bolivia in 2006, mapping the political landscapes, key stakeholders, and predicted positioning over time.

1. Bolivia’s Alternative FuturesSENTURION Briefing: Perspectives on Gas & CocaGeorge Washington UniversityJuly 23rd, 2010

2. Senturion minimizes political risk in decisions & negotiationsSenturion is a predictive analysis tool that simulates the bargaining process in political-military issues:

3. Anticipates stakeholder-level behavior

4. Forecasts likely outcomes

5. Provides a concrete set of metrics for scenario testing

6. Identifies courses of action and windows of opportunity

7. Supports Information Operation planning

8. The inputs for Senturion are judgments drawn from subject matter experts.

9. Senturion employs an agent based-game theoretic approach that profiles stakeholders and simulates the political decision making process.Senturion has a sustained history of unparalleled accuracy in forecasting riskRussian Politicizationof Nat. ResourcesChina-JapanRelationsVenezuelan HydrocarbonNationalizationTrans-CaucasusConflictChinese EnergyPolicy AbroadUS Withdrawal from IraqPakistani-US CooperationFuture of Israeli PoliticsFuture of Cuba (Castro)Nigerian Oil ViolenceTaiwan Party PoliticsMilitary & CounterdrugCooperation in RegionRadicalism in SE AsiaGas and Coca PolicySaudi NuclearizationDarfur PeaceNegotiationsIranian Nuclear ProgramIran’s Oil WeaponTRACK RECORD: 85% accuracy rate based on over 460 studies for the U.S. Dept of Defense, State, Intelligence Community, energy corporations, and investment firms.

10. The Senturion methodology is transparent and repeatable across industry domainsSenturion addresses highly complex, politically-driven issues characterized by multiple stakeholders attempting to influence each other and outcomes. Alternative FuturesModelOutputFramingInputForecasts Behavior and OutcomesBounding the StudyStakeholdersDefining IssuesPosition on IssuesApplies Game Theory, Decision Theory, and Spatial Bargaining Models to Simulate BehaviorStructuring QuestionsInfluence and ImportanceAssesses Impact of Scenarios/AssumptionsSenturion provides insights into complex decision making dynamicsSubject Matter Experts consulted to frame and provide all inputs

11. 5Fully Support Abu MazenNeutralSenturion predicts the sequencing and moves that lead to political consensus in favor of Abu MazenFully Oppose Abu MazenPolitical Network MappingGame Theoretic Perceptual AnalysisRisk Taking BehaviorSenturion outputs are visualized to provide stakeholder-level predictions on position.

12. Rationale for predictions provided in detailed visualization of calculated relationships.

13. Provides the basis for “what ifs” and measuring the unintended consequences of actions.UNCLASSIFIED

14. Approach for Bolivia Study – February 2006We first interviewed a group of six subject matter experts as a control group on the two issues of study: