Decision making in disaster risk reduction across different levels Bonn, 10-11 December 2014

1. Sebastian Pisi, DKKV
Elbe flood 2002/2013: Lessons learned, changes in the decision
making process and in the adopted risk mitigation measures
Bonn, 11th December 2014
KNOW4DRR: Decision making in disaster risk
reduction across different levels
FOR INTERNAL USE ONLY

2. Sebastian Pisi: Lessons learned,
changes in the decision making
process and in the adopted risk
mitigation measures
Table of Contents
BMBF-Project
A few impressions
Flood 2002 - A Focus Event
Risk Management Cycle & Decision Making Process
Lessons Learned
Conclusion

3. Sebastian Pisi: Lessons learned,
changes in the decision making
process and in the adopted risk
mitigation measures
Overview - Examinations of the Flood Event 2013
Duration: Oct. 2013 to Feb. 2015
Head of Project: Prof. Dr. Annegret Thieken, University of Potsdam
Part 1: Potential and actual damage reduction through prevention and early warning
Part 2: Coping Capacity of German federal states and aid
Source:Administrative
DistrictofStendal

4. Sebastian Pisi: Lessons learned,
changes in the decision making
process and in the adopted risk
mitigation measures
Flood in Germany 2013…
Source:BerufsfeuerwehrBremen

5. Sebastian Pisi: Lessons learned,
changes in the decision making
process and in the adopted risk
mitigation measures
…water as far as the eye can reach, being concerned but…
Source:BundespolizeiFlugdienst

6. Sebastian Pisi: Lessons learned,
changes in the decision making
process and in the adopted risk
mitigation measures
…at least not alone…
Source:BerufsfeuerwehrBremen

7. Sebastian Pisi: Lessons learned,
changes in the decision making
process and in the adopted risk
mitigation measures
…and creative!
Source:AdministrativeDistrictofStendal

8. Sebastian Pisi: Lessons learned,
changes in the decision making
process and in the adopted risk
mitigation measures
Flood in August 2002: ,Focus event’
 Extensive Case Study Analysis
 Identification of Deficits
 …Recommendations
 Revision
o Flood Protection
o EU-Flood Action Programme
o Investments and improvements
at all levels
 Research Programme
 Horizon 2020

9. Sebastian Pisi: Lessons learned,
changes in the decision making
process and in the adopted risk
mitigation measures
Source: All American Insurance Agency

10. Sebastian Pisi: Lessons learned,
changes in the decision making
process and in the adopted risk
mitigation measures
August 2002 Record-breaking
24-hour rainfall: 312 mm
‚Nothing like this‘: Hazard processes
June 2013 Record-breaking
Soil saturation in May 2013
Source: CEDIM Forensic Disaster Analysis Group; revised in February 2014, pers. com. K. Schröter (GFZ)
S: Severity index acording to Uhlemann, Thieken, Merz (2010) – HESS 14: 1277–1295.
Identify
Evaluate
Treat
Monitor

11. Sebastian Pisi: Lessons learned,
changes in the decision making
process and in the adopted risk
mitigation measures
August 2002 June 2013Learning based on damages: YES, but EXPENSIVE
Impact indicator August 2002 June 2013
Fatalities 21 8
Financial losses 11600 million € 8158 million €
Governmental compensation fund 8000 million € 8000 million €
Identify
Evaluate
Treat
Monitor

12. Sebastian Pisi: Lessons learned,
changes in the decision making
process and in the adopted risk
mitigation measures
Source:AdministrativeDistrictofStendal
Identify
Evaluate
Treat
Monitor
Learning due to damages: YES, but EXPENSIVE

13. Sebastian Pisi: Lessons learned,
changes in the decision making
process and in the adopted risk
mitigation measures
Progress:
• 22nd Dec. 2011
Identification of areas with high risk
potential
• 22nd Dec. 2013
Risk and Hazard Maps
• 22nd Dec. 2015
Flood Management Plans
• Update every 6 years
Transfer to national law:
Federal Water Act
EU-Flood Action Programme (2007/60/EC)
Probability of Occurrence
• Flood with low probability (extreme)
• Flood with moderate probability
(HQ100)
• Flood with high probability
(HQ10/20)
Specific Data
• Flood plain
• Water depth
• Velocity
Potential negative results shown
in risk maps
Identify
Evaluate
Treat
Monitor

14. Sebastian Pisi: Lessons learned,
changes in the decision making
process and in the adopted risk
mitigation measures
Warning and Reaction of Population
Source: www.hochwasserzentralen.de
After 2002
Improvement
of warning
and information:
small percentage
of population
not being warned
(25%...2013: 5%)
• Who does the
warning address?
• Who can react?
• Who does the
appropriate thing?
Identify
Evaluate
Treat
Monitor

15. Sebastian Pisi: Lessons learned,
changes in the decision making
process and in the adopted risk
mitigation measures
Analysis of Current Risk Maps
• National server connecting to all federal information
• Hazard Maps in all federal states for HQ100 and HQ200
• No consistency in representaion of frequent floods
• Variety of research options for WebGIS applications – or not
Thüringen Nordrhein-Westfalen Schleswig-Holstein Sachsen
Sachsen-Anhalt Bayern Baden-Württemberg Hessen
Identify
Evaluate
Treat
Monitor

16. Sebastian Pisi: Lessons learned,
changes in the decision making
process and in the adopted risk
mitigation measures
• Cooperation of aid
agencies, public authorities
and population a success
• New concepts for the
interaction of aid agencies
presented
• Implementation of key
authorities (BBK/GMLZ)
• Regular training of
stakeholders (LÜKEX)
• Schemes for controlling and
quality criteria
Aid Agencies
Identify
Evaluate
Treat
Monitor

17. Sebastian Pisi: Lessons learned,
changes in the decision making
process and in the adopted risk
mitigation measures
Conflicts and the Role of the Media
Identify
Evaluate
Treat
Monitor

18. Sebastian Pisi: Lessons learned,
changes in the decision making
process and in the adopted risk
mitigation measures
Identify
Evaluate
Treat
Monitor

19. Sebastian Pisi: Lessons learned,
changes in the decision making
process and in the adopted risk
mitigation measures
‚Preparation in private‘
• Information Aearch
• Mutual Aid/ Networks
• Adapted Use of Buildings
• Adapted Use of Interior
• Water Barriers
• Heating in Upper Floors
• Safeguarding of Oil Heatings
• Waterproofing of Buildings
• Insurance
• Preparation for Case of Emergency
Source: http://images.fejo.dk/hausbilder/0660/6387
Identify
Evaluate
Treat
Monitor

20. Sebastian Pisi: Lessons learned,
changes in the decision making
process and in the adopted risk
mitigation measures
Improvements
from 2002 to 2013
• Flood hazard and risk mapping
• Reinforced technical protection
• Strengthening of flood prevention
by land use regulations
• Improved warning and response
• Higher acceptance and willingness
to take responsibility
• Uncertainty more precise
• More coordination and
communication
• Efforts in risk communication
• Sensitivity raised
 Higher efficiency
To Do...
 Do we supply enough retention
areas and is maintenance of floodplains
sufficient?
 How to better link reconstruction and
risk reduction?
 Are maps and warning information
comprehensible?
 How to deal with new technologies and
social media?
 What about intangible and long-term
effects?
 Is there a shift of risk due to
prioritisation of measures?
 What is the political agenda up to?
 New ways and perspectives?
Conclusion

21. Sebastian Pisi: Lessons learned,
changes in the decision making
process and in the adopted risk
mitigation measures
DMP

22. Sebastian Pisi: Lessons learned,
changes in the decision making
process and in the adopted risk
mitigation measures
Thank you very much!
Sebastian Pisi, German Comitee for Disaster Reduction
pisi@dkkv.org, +49-228-6191289