Alex Kalinovsky shared five working strategies for successful estimation.

1. THE DARK ART OF
ESTIMATION

2. 5 TECHNIQUES
FROM MASTER SHIFU
Narrated by Alex Kalinovsky
CEO of AgileEngine

3. Agile

5. Let’s do this!

6. In Agile world, do we really need to estimate?

7. F$###ING YES!!!!!

8. How well do you understand CEOs?
Question #1.
Question #2.

9. While there is a limit to how good a project can go,
there is no limit to how poorly a project can go.

10. Low High
Surface temperature of the sun, C
Area of the Asian continent, sq km
Total coastline length of the Pacific Ocean, km
The year of Alexander the Great's birth
Number of books published in the U.S. since 1776
How good of an estimator are you?

11. Surface temperature of the sun, C
6,000
Area of the Asian continent, sq km
44,390,000
Total coastline length of the Pacific Ocean, km 135,663
The year of Alexander the Great's birth 356
BC
Number of books published in the U.S. since 1776 22 million

12. people’s intuitive sense of ’90% confident’
is closer to ‘30% confident’

13. Why is it so hard?

14. Cone of Uncertainty

16. “It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong.”
Master Shifu

17. Let’s learn some technique...

18. TIP #1. USE RANGES
How long does it take to build a mobile app?

19. “A typical mobile app can be built in 3-8
months by a team of 2-5 people.”

20. Start with T-shirt sizing
Feature Business Value Dev cost
User registration L S
Test recording L M
Test playback L M
Cloud scaling M L
IE support M L
Import/Export S M
Help hints L S

21. No story points!

22. TIP #2. START SUPER SIMPLE

23. Design and build simplest solution, then iterate

24. TIP #3. DECOMPOSE & COUNT

25. Count Something
Number Days per item Total work, days
UI screens 10 3 - 5 30 - 50
Backend modules 4 5 - 10 20 - 40
External Integrations 3 5 - 15 15 - 45

26. TIP #4. LOOK PROFESSIONAL

27. Use online project management system
https://www.celoxis.com/
Start with AgileEngine’s project template

28. Include overlooked activities
● Estimating
● Meetings
● Build scripts
● CI setup
● Demos
● Performance tuning
● Deployment
● Documentation

29. Which one is better for the same task?
A. Estimate 40h and deliver in 50h
B. Estimate 70h and deliver in 60h

30. Overestimate

31. Bigger = Slower

32. TIP #5. CONTROL EXECUTION

33. What do you do when you realize you underestimated?
A. Skip unit tests.
B. Reduce scope.
C. Work overtime.
D. Drink more coffee.
E. Talk with the customer.

34. Let’s recall...

35. 1. USE RANGES
2. START SUPER SIMPLE
3. DECOMPOSE AND COUNT
4. LOOK PROFESSIONAL
5. CONTROL EXECUTION

37. “If you only do what you can do,
you’ll never be more than you are now.”
– Master Shifu

38. Resources:
Project estimation spreadsheet:
https://drive.google.com/open?id=1swLZBZdRfYni-
5IFKpvD88kDeIGhzk_-BMS5rJ_qx8w
Online project planning: https://www.celoxis.com/

39. 3 BONUS TIPS
from Master Oogway

40. DON’T COMPLAIN
See the brighter side and give positive feedback

41. DON’T ARGUE
Embrace new ideas and support decision makers

42. BE HAPPY
Happiness is a choice you make every day