GCC Electricity Market

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NewBase Energy News 12 October 2023 No. 1664 Senior Editor Eng. Khaled Al Awadi
NewBase for discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE
Saudi Arabia inaugurates GCC electricity market connection
with Iraq worth $300m
The National + NewBase
Saudi Arabia has inaugurated the Gulf electricity market project's connection platform with Iraq, and
the electricity exchanged with the neighbouring country could contribute to energy sales volumes
reaching up to $300 million annually.
The plan is to expand the initiative to other countries, Prince Saud bin Nayef, the governor of Saudi
Arabia's eastern province, said during the platform's inauguration at the GCC Interconnection
Authority's headquarters in Al Dammam city.
“This platform creates opportunities for the Gulf market to facilitate the exchange and trade of
electric power among the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council and the Republic of Iraq,”
Yaqoob Saif Al Kiyumi, vice chairman of GCCIA, said in a statement on Wednesday.
“It empowers Gulf nations to enter into bilateral or multilateral agreements and to reserve the
essential transmission lines needed for the transfer of electric power among them.”
Iraq’s electricity demand in summer reaches more than 35 gigawatts, but its obsolescent plants and
grid can produce only about 25 gigawatts, resulting in lengthy power cuts and the use of
contaminating and expensive private diesel generators.
Despite billions of dollars spent on infrastructure since the 2003 US-led invasion that toppled
Saddam Hussein, many Iraqi cities and towns still experience severe power cuts and rolling
blackouts.
ww.linkedin.com/in/khaled-al-awadi-80201019/

The country's electricity network losses are among the highest in the world. According to the Iraq
Energy Institute, about 30 per cent to 50 per cent of electricity generated is lost due to an inadequate
transmission and distribution network.
Iraq's electricity demand is set to double between 2019 and 2030, and its supply shortfall will widen
as the population grows by more than one million a year, according to the International Energy
Agency.
Iraq electricity problem makes the summer unbearable.
“The launch of the Gulf market electricity connection project with Iraq marks a promising step
towards reaching other international networks,” Mr Al Kiyumi said.
The platform will allow Iraq to exchange and trade electric power with the GCC countries collectively
or individually, Ahmed Al-Ebrahim, chief executive of the GCCIA, said.
“The platform also facilitates cross-border trade among the Gulf countries in a streamlined and
efficient manner, in addition to reserving the necessary transmission lines for electric power transfer
among these countries,” he said.

The GCCIA expects the exchange of two terawatts of power with Iraq during the summer period.
The trade is expected to extend into the winter season, reaching around half a terawatt.
While the electricity exchanged with Iraq could contribute to energy sales volumes amounting to
$200 million to $300 million annually, this estimate could increase significantly in a gas shortage.
The figure could reach $232 million when using liquefied natural gas or $438 million if oil is used for
electricity generation, according to Mr Al-Ebrahim.
The electricity connection project would save Iraq around $100 million when using liquefied natural
gas or $215 million when using oil for power generation.
Project expansion in UAE, Kuwait and Oman
Following a feasibility study, the authority is undertaking three expansion projects involving Kuwait
and UAE, and direct interconnection with Oman, according to the statement.
It has also explored the possibility of expanding by signing initial pacts to study its interconnection
with the electricity networks of Jordan and Egypt.
The project with Kuwait is set to be completed in December 2024, and with the UAE by late 2025.
The GCCIA's project has contributed to estimated savings of about $3 billion since its inception,
compared to the investment and operational costs, which totalled about $1.5 billion

QatarEnergy, TotalEnergies sign 27-year LNG supply deal
OGN/ TradeArabia News Service
QatarEnergy and TotalEnergies have signed two long-term LNG sale and purchase agreements
(SPAs) for the supply of up to 3.5 million tons per annum (MTPA) of LNG from Qatar to France.
Pursuant to the SPAs, LNG will be delivered ex-ship to the Fos Cavaou LNG receiving terminal in
southern France, with deliveries expected to start in 2026 for a term of 27 years.
The LNG volumes will be sourced from the two joint ventures between QatarEnergy and
TotalEnergies that hold interests in Qatar’s North Field East (NFE) and North field South (NFS)
projects.
The SPAs were signed by Saad Sherida Al-Kaabi, the Minister of State for Energy Affairs, the
President and CEO of QatarEnergy, and Patrick Pouyanné, the Chairman and CEO of
TotalEnergies, at a special event held in Doha in the presence of senior executives from both
companies.
Minister Al-Kaabi said: “These two new agreements we have signed with our partner TotalEnergies,
demonstrate our continued commitment to the European markets in general, and to the French
market in particular, thus contributing to France’s energy security. The State of Qatar has been
supplying the French market with LNG since 2009, and the new agreements reflect the joint effort
of two trusted partners, QatarEnergy and TotalEnergies, to provide reliable and credible LNG supply
solutions to customers across the globe.”
Al-Kaabi added: “Our commitment to ensure continued and reliable supplies of energy to Europe
and the rest of the world is underpinned by our substantial and ongoing investments across the
entire gas value chain. We are proud that our new LNG expansion in Qatar is the least carbon
intensive project in the world. Our efforts span from bolstering production capacity in Qatar to the
development of the Golden Pass LNG export project in the United States, in addition to our
commitments in various LNG receiving terminals in Europe, including the Montoir-de-Bretagne LNG
Terminal in France.”
TotalEnergies’ partnership in the North Field LNG Expansion Projects is made up of a 6.25 per cent
share in the NFE project and a 9.375 per cent share in the NFS project.

U.S. crude oil exports reached a record high in first half of 2023
Data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Petroleum Supply Monthly
U.S. crude oil exports in the first half of 2023 averaged 3.99 million barrels per day (b/d), which is a
record high for the first half of a year since 2015, when the U.S. ban on most crude oil exports from
the United States was repealed. In the first half of 2023, crude oil exports were up 650,000 b/d
(19%) compared with the first half of 2022.
Europe was the largest regional destination for U.S. crude oil exports by volume, at 1.75 million b/d,
led by exports to the Netherlands and UK. Asia was the regional destination with the next-highest
volume, at 1.68 million b/d, led by exports to China and South Korea. The United States also
exported significantly smaller volumes of crude oil to Canada, Africa, and Central America and
South America.
Although exports increased in the first half of 2023, the United States still imports more crude oil
than it exports, meaning it remains a net crude oil importer.
The United States continues to import crude oil despite rising domestic crude oil production in part
because many U.S. refineries are configured to process heavy, sour crude oil (with a low API
gravity and high sulfur content) rather than the light, sweet crude oil (with a high API gravity and low
sulfur content) typically produced in the United States.
U.S. crude oil imports come primarily from historical trading partners such as Mexico and Canada.
Heavy, sour grades of crude oil are often discounted compared with light, sweet grades of crude oil
because they require more complex refinery units to produce profitable yields of refined products
such as motor gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel.

Most U.S. crude oil imports take place when it is more profitable for U.S. refiners to process
discounted heavier grades because those refineries have already invested in the additional
complexity required to refine them.
The rapid increase in U.S. domestic production in the early 2010s increased domestic light, sweet
crude oil production. Light, sweet grades of crude oil traditionally benefit from a price premium in
the global crude oil market because they yield high amounts of profitable petroleum products from
less complex refining processes.
Some U.S. refiners on the Gulf Coast have invested in expanding their light, sweet crude oil
processing capacity. However, for many refiners, particularly in the Midwest and along the Gulf
Coast, refining discounted heavy, sour crude oil grades remains more profitable.

NewBase October 12 -2023 Khaled Al Awadi
NewBase for discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE
Oil falls further on US stock build, easing supply concerns
Reuters + NewBase
Oil prices fell for a third day on Thursday, dragged down by a larger-than-expected crude and
gasoline stockbuild in the U.S. and easing supply concerns.
Brent futures fell 47 cents, or 0.55%, to $85.35 a barrel at 0723 GMT, while U.S. West Texas
Intermediate crude retreated 62 cents, or 0.743%, to $82.87 a barrel.
Both benchmarks have given back most early-week gains after falling more than 2% in the previous
session.
U.S. crude oil stockpiles swelled by about 12.9 million barrels, according to market sources citing
American Petroleum Institute figures on Wednesday.
This was much higher than the 500,000-barrel gain expected by analysts in a Reuters poll.
"Unlikely to help sentiment this morning are API inventory numbers...Lower refinery run rates due
to maintenance likely contributed to this build," said ING analysts in a client note.
Oil price special
coverage

Gasoline inventories also rose by 3.6 million barrels, the data showed, a stark contrast from the
800,000-barrel drop expected by analysts and continued to stoke worries of slowing fuel demand in
the U.S.
"Fuel prices may be closer to consumers' pain threshold than inflation-adjusted prices might
suggest. There are already signs that consumers have responded by cutting back on fuel
consumption," JP Morgan analysts said in a client note.
"In PADD 5, of which California is the biggest consumer, we estimate gasoline demand dropped
100,000 barrels per day between June and September, to a seven-month low of 1.46 million barrels
per day," they added.
Markets will be awaiting further inventory data cues from the U.S. Energy Information Administration
(EIA) due later in the day at 1500 GMT.
Elsewhere, market concerns on the supply situation in the Middle East continued to ease, putting
downside pressure on prices.
"Crude oil extended losses on signs the impact of the Israel-Hamas war on the oil market will be
limited," ANZ analysts said in a client note.
ING analysts also said: "The risk premium continues to erode with the conflict largely contained to
Israel and Hamas."
Expectations by the U.S. EIA of global oil inventories falling further in the second half of 2023,
however, limited price weakness.
The lower inventories, which are forecast to keep global oil supply below consumption, are likely to
boost oil prices, the EIA said in a monthly report.

Opec sees global oil demand at 116 mb/d in 2045
OGN/ TradeArabia News Service
The 2023 Opec World Oil Outlook (Opec WOO) predicts a strong medium-term growth in oil demand, with long-
term demand expected to reach 116 mb/d by 2045. Opec WOO was launched on October 10 at the King Abdullah
Petroleum Studies and Research Center (KAPSARC) in Saudi Arabia.
First published in 2007, the WOO offers a detailed review and assessment of the medium- and long-term
prospects for the global oil and energy to 2045. The 17th edition of the flagship publication discusses recent
energy and economic developments, net zero policies, population questions, policymakers reevaluating transition
pathways, and the need to bring modern energy services to billions.
Opec WOO report key predictions:
OIL DEMAND
Global oil demand is predicted to reach 110.2 million barrels a day (mb/d) in 2028, a 10.6 mb/d increase from
2022.
Non-OECD oil demand is expected to increase by 10.1 mb/d, reaching 63.7 mb/d by 2028. OECD demand will
also increase by 0.5 mb/d over the medium-term.
In the long term, global oil demand is expected to increase by over 16 mb/d between 2022 and 2045, rising from
99.6 mb/d in 2022 to 116 mb/d in 2045.
Non-OECD oil demand is expected to increase by almost 26 mb/d between 2022 and 2045, while OECD oil
demand is set to contract by around 9.3 mb/d.
The largest contributions to non-OECD oil demand are expected to come from India, Other Asia, China, Africa,
and the Middle East.
Further, the largest incremental demand is projected for road transportation, petrochemical, and aviation sectors.
Major long-term demand growth is expected for jet/kerosene, ethane/liquefied petroleum gas, diesel/gas oil,
naphtha, and gasoline.

OIL MOVEMENTS
Driven by strong demand growth, Global crude and condensate trade is expected to reach levels
above 39.3 mb/d in 2025, up by over 3 mb/d from 2022 levels.
By 2045, total flows are expected to increase to 45.3 mb/d due to rising oil demand and declining
supply in importing regions. Major export contributors include the Middle East, Latin America, and
the US and Canada.
Asia-Pacific remains the main destination for exports, with total imports increasing from 23 mb/d in
2022 to 32.6 mb/d in 2045, increasing its share of global interregional trade.
ENERGY DEMAND
Global primary energy demand is set to increase from around 291 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (mboe/d)
in 2022 to close to 359 mboe/d in 2045, an increase of 68.3 mboe/d, or 23 per cent over the outlook period.
Growth is expected to slow gradually from the relatively high short-term rates to more modest long-term
increments, in line with moderating population and economic growth.
Energy demand growth will be driven by the non-OECD region, which is set to increase by 69 mboe/d over the
outlook period.
Around 28 per cent of non- OECD growth is expected to come from India alone. At the same time, energy demand
in OECD countries is set to marginally decline in the outlook period.
Futher, Demand for all primary fuels is set to increase in the long-term, with the exception of coal due to energy
policy and climate commitments.
The strongest growth is expected for other renewables (notably wind and solar), which will increase by34.3
mboe/d, based on strong policy support in many regions.
The share of other renewables in the energy mix is set to rise from around 2.7 per cent in 2022 to 11.7 per centin
2045. Oil demand will grow strongly too, and even though its share in the energy mix declines modestly, oil will
remain the fuel with the largest share by 2045 at 29.5 per cent.
Natural gas demand is set to increase by 20 mboe/d over the outlook period, reaching 87 mboe/d in 2045.
The share of fossil fuels in the energy mix will drop from above 80 per cent in 2022 to about 69 per cent in 2045,
due to the decline of coal.
In the same period, the combined share of oil and gas in the energy mix still represents 54 per cent in 2045.
Haitham Al Ghais, Opec Secretary General, said it was a great privilege to launch the publication in the presence
of Minister of Energy of Saudi Arabia , Prince Abdul Aziz Bin Salman and thanked Fahad Alajlan, President of
KAPSARC, and his dedicated staff, for supporting with preparations for such an important Opec event.

NewBase Specual Coverage
The Energy world –October 12 -2023
CLEAN ENERGY
Eni publishes 22nd edition of the World Energy Review
Source: Eni
Eni's latest statistical report concerning 2022 highlights the importance of diversifying energy
sources to ensure security of supply and support the energy transition.
Eni has published the 22nd edition of the World Energy Review 2023 (WER), its global energy
statistics report, now available in a new interactive format on eni.com.
The disruptive events weighing on the energy sector in 2022 – whose main trends are shown in the
WER tables – highlight the need to broaden future prospects and pursue diversified solutions
supporting a sustainable, secure, and equitable transition.
In 2022, global primary energy consumption grew at a rate of almost 1% with respect to the previous
year confirming trends seen in recent decades, with fossil fuels still accounting for about 80% of the
total energy mix. Prices of major energy commodities were affected by the war in Ukraine across
all markets, with different degrees of impact depending on the specificities of each and local
dependence on Russian supplies.
In keeping with this scenario of sweeping change, the World Energy Review, now at its 22nd edition,
dedicates significant space to strategic topics such as natural gas and critical minerals, which are
crucial to the energy transition.

Below are the key messages from the analysis:
 In the oil sector, tensions due to a decade of lower investments and the war in Ukraine
brought Brent's annual average in 2022 to 101.2 $/b, 43% higher than in 2021. Against this
backdrop, demand continues to increase (+2.2 Mb/d), reaching 100 Mb/d and almost
completely recovering pandemic-related losses (-0.7% compared to 2019). Global oil
production increased by 4.3 Mb/d, with growth concentrated in the Gulf OPEC countries due
to the unwinding of 2020 production cuts. Net refining capacity returned to growth in 2022
thanks to new projects in the Middle East and China amounting to slightly under 2 Mb/d.

 Gas prices rose significantly with direct effects on downstream commodities, and especially
electricity. Europe compensated for the shortfall in pipeline imports from Russia mainly by
attracting additional LNG volumes, albeit at higher prices. Global gas demand in 2022 fell by
more than 1%, after a 2021 post-pandemic rebound (about 5%) with divergent dynamics on
a global scale: a sharp slowdown in Europe, Russia, and Asia, only partially offset by growth
in the United States and the Middle East.

 Renewable installations have been growing exponentially in recent years. However, solar
and wind contributed just above 10% to the electricity mix, compared with more than 60%
generated by fossil sources.

 Critical minerals play a key role in some essential transition technologies. As a result,
production for most critical minerals grew significantly, reflecting an increase in demand.
Nickel and lithium registered the largest increase (over 20%).
WER – a reference point for the energy industry – is the world energy statistics report edited by Eni.
It is published in two editions: the first one in July includes a preview of key variables for the oil and
gas sector, as well as statistics on renewables and critical materials. The second one in October
contains the full reporting on all variables.
https://www.eni.com/en-IT/global-energy-
scenarios/world-energy-review.html

NewBase Energy News 12-October - Issue No. 1664 call on +971504822502, UAE
The Editor:” Khaled Al Awadi” Your partner in Energy Services
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About: Khaled Malallah Al Awadi,
Energy Consultant
MS & BS Mechanical Engineering (HON), USA
Emarat member since 1990
ASME member since 1995
Hawk Energy member 2010
www.linkedin.com/in/khaled-al-awadi-38b995b
Mobile: +971504822502
khdmohd@hawkenergy.net or khdmohd@hotmail.com
Khaled Al Awadi is a UAE National with over 30 years of experience in the Oil & Gas
sector. Has Mechanical Engineering BSc. & MSc. Degrees from leading U.S.
Universities. Currently working as self leading external Energy consultant for the
GCC area via many leading Energy Services companies. Khaled is the Founder of
the NewBase Energy news articles issues, Khaled is an international consultant,
advisor, ecopreneur and journalist with expertise in Gas & Oil pipeline Networks,
waste management, waste-to-energy, renewable energy, environment protection
and sustainable development. His geographical areas of focus include Middle East,
Africa and Asia. Khaled has successfully accomplished a wide range of projects in
the areas of Gas & Oil with extensive works on Gas Pipeline Network Facilities & gas
compressor stations. Executed projects in the designing & constructing of gas pipelines, gas metering &
regulating stations and in the engineering of gas/oil supply routes.
Has drafted & finalized many contracts/agreements in products sale, transportation, operation &
maintenance agreements. Along with many MOUs & JVs for organizations & governments authorities.
Currently dealing for biomass energy, biogas, waste-to-energy, recycling and waste management. He has
participated in numerous conferences and workshops as chairman, session chair, keynote speaker and
panelist.
Khaled is the Editor-in-Chief of NewBase Energy News and is a professional environmental writer with over
1400 popular articles to his credit. He is proactively engaged in creating mass awareness on renewable
energy, waste management, plant Automation IA and environmental sustainability in different parts of the
world. Khaled has become a reference for many of the Oil & Gas Conferences and for many Energy program
broadcasted internationally, via GCC leading satellite Channels. Khaled can be reached at any time, see
contact details above.

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