1.
00 XXX 2014
Choices on
the road ahead
Kevin McCullagh
Eröffnung des Bereichs MOVE,
Telekom Design Gallery
18 September 2017

2.
The car had
some foreseen
consequences

3.
4
US Horse Population
Million equines
1850 1870 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 2000
5 3
2222 24
19
14
8 8
25
Horses gave way to cars

4.
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980
90%
100%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
Householdsowningcars
US Buerau Census data
30%
20%
10%
1908
Model T enters
production
1926
Route 66
established
1975
First McDonalds
drive thru
1937
Golden gate
bridge opens
1952
First walk/don’t walk
signal in NY
Knock-on effects took
decades to unfold

5.
The car
had many
unforeseen
consequences

6.
Out of town shopping ‘It was easy to
predict mass car
ownership, but
hard to predict
Walmart.’
Carl Sagan

7.
Amount of urban space
dedicated to car parks

8.
New leisure pursuits

9.
The road trip

10.
New industries

11.
1. General Motors
6. Chrysler
2. Exxon Mobil
7. Armour
3. U.S. Steel
8. Gulf Oil
4. General Electric
9. Mobil
5. Esmark
10. DuPont
America’s biggest
companies in 1955
GM Exhibition assembly line 1955Fortune 500
Revenue

12.
America’s biggest
companies in 2017
Apple HQ, Cupertino, CA
1. Apple Inc.
2. Alphabet Inc.
3. Microsoft
8. Johnson Johnson
4. Amazon.com
9. J. P. Morgan Chase
5. Berkshire Hathaway
10. Wells Fargo
Market value
6. Facebook
7. Exxon Mobil
Fortune 500

13.
3 waves
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
MaaS
Mobility as a service
1
AV
Autonomous vehicles
3
EV
Electric vehicles
2

14.
Source:
2km1km 5km 10km 15km+
Costandconvenience
(Price / Comfort / Flexibility / Speed)
Bus
Scooter
Tram
Taxi
Minicab
Walk
Luxury
chauffeur
Metro
Bike
Typical urban
journey length
Private car
Dynamic minibus
Uses data to determine
routes and offer point
to point pick-ups and
drop-offs, e.g. Bridj
Mobility services
Hailable
mini cab
Mini cab that can be hailed
with an app, e.g. Uber
Action
zone
Motorbike
Multi-
modal
payment
Taxi
hailing
apps
Parking
services
Multi-
modal
planner
Navigation
P2P
car sharing
Car owners rent their
cars directly to other
consumers, e.g. RelayRides
Free-
floating
car sharing
Cars are collected from and
returned to, any parking
space within a pre-defined
area, e.g. DriveNow
Shared
Scooter
Shared
bike
Micro
car sharing
For smaller (typically 3-5)
pre-determined groups
of users, e.g. Audi Unite
Point-to-point
car sharing Back-to-base
car sharing
e-bike
Bicycle with integrated
electrical motor for
propulsion, e.g. GoCycle
Mobility as a Service

15.
Richer mobility
service ecosystem
New diverse
mobility modes
Multi-modal mobility app
Seamless payments
2003
London congestion
charging begins
2004
ZipCar
launches
1980s
High occupancy vehicle
lanes in the USA
1982
Athens Ring
Odd/Even system
2014
London congestion
nears pre-charging
levels
2020
Paris to ban
diesel cars
2010
London’s bike
scheme launched
2034
Hamburg to ban
cars from centre
2030
Helsinki target to
eliminates private-car
ownership
2025
Madrid aim to ban
all diesel cars
2019
Oslo to ban all cars
from city centre
2040
DfT expects 25%
increase in traffic
since 2015
UK and France to ban
diesel and petrol car
production
Squeeze on car use
Higher parking costs
Congestion charging
Lower speed limits
Traffic-calming measures
Stricter emission laws
No-car developments
Limited car zones
More car deterrents
and alternatives

16.
Peak car?
UK car sales
1.75m
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
1.85m
1.95m
2.05m
2.15m
2.25m
2.35m
2.45m
2.55m
2.65m
SMMT (2015)

17.
But cars have never been
so popular (with drivers)
UK car sales
1.75m
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
1.85m
1.95m
2.05m
2.15m
2.25m
2.35m
2.45m
2.55m
2.65m
SMMT (2015)

18.
But cars have never been
so popular (with drivers)
UK car sales
1.75m
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
1.85m
1.95m
2.05m
2.15m
2.25m
2.35m
2.45m
2.55m
2.65m
+57%Forecasted rise in global
car sales by 2030
Euromonitor, 2015
SMMT (2015)

19.
Source:
Slide subtitle max 2 lines, lorem ipsum dolor
sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit
Title 1 lineOvernight charging
and valeting

20.
EVs

21.
EV adoption forecasts
Predictions and targets of EV penetration across global markets
Share of car sales
Share of cars on the roads
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
BNEF
BNEF
Carbon Tracker
CEE
Adam Whitmore
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
Morgan Stanley
Frost Sullivan
Qian Zhang
Tony Seba

22.
43% of UK homes
don’t have access to
off-street parking
National grid

23.
More public charging
stations, pronto!
12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 2520
20
15
10
5
0
Projected global car sales (millions)
DIESEL ELECTRIC
11 12 13 14 15 16 1720
16
12
8
4
0
Public EV charging stations (thousands)
US
GER
UK
Source: UBS Source: The Economist, 15 September 2017

24.
AVs

25.
AV adoption forecasts
Predictions and targets of AV penetration across global markets
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Canalys
McKinsey
UoTA
IoEEE Amica Research
Thatcham
Thatcham
Oliver Wyman
BCG
IMechE100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
Tony Seba
KPMG
Fehr Peers
Share of car sales
Share of cars on the roads

26.
Some foreseen
consequences

27.
Less accidents

28.
Source:
Slide subtitle max 2 lines, lorem ipsum dolor
sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit
Title 1 line
Imagesource:www.motortrend.com
Productivity gains

29.
Less than 30 mins 30-59 min 50-59 min 90 min and greater Work from home
60%
50%
40%
Commuters
Commute times
30%
20%
10%
0%
Philadelphia Mayor’s Office of
Transportation Utilities, 2013
Impact on commute times?
Average distribution commute times in
New York, Washington DC, Philadelphia, Boston and Baltimore

30.
Greater access
to mobility
Imagesource:VicHealth

31.
Greater social inclusion

32.
Robo taxis reach parity
with public transport
Robotics Trends, 2016
Current Uber LA subway Driverless taxi
$1.50/mile
$0.50/mile
‘When there’s no other dude
in the car, the cost of Uber
becomes cheaper than
owning a vehicle’
Travis Kalanick
Ex Uber CEO
$1.25/mile

33.
Less foreseen
consequences

34.
Greater
vehicle
diversity

35.
Meeting cars

36.
Sleeper cars

37.
Source:
Slide subtitle max 2 lines, lorem ipsum dolor
sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit
Title 1 lineCharger cars

38.
Charger
cars

39.
Shoe shine
New
jobs and
businesses

40.
Source:
Slide subtitle max 2 lines, lorem ipsum dolor
sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit
Title 1 line
Imagesource:www.wired.com
Night freight

41.
Source:
Slide subtitle max 2 lines, lorem ipsum dolor
sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit
Title 1 lineUrban logistics

42.
Sociology before
technology

43.
Slide 48Section
Title 1 lineHistory or future?

44.
Slide 49Section
Title 1 lineTechnology is only one
driver of the future

45.
Feminisation
The rise and social impact of women

46.
Technology ≠ Destiny

47.
We shape
technology
and technology
shapes us

48.
Tallin experiment
City gave its 430,000 residents free
access to public transport in an attempt
to get cars off the road, decrease
congestion and make the city more
accessible to low-income residents.
+1.2%increase in demand for the service overall

49.
New taxes

50.
C20th choices

51.
We join the dots
@kevinmccull
www.plan.london

52.
Rise of affordable
electric cars
The first wave of truly affordable EVs is
already upon us
Imagesource:axt.org.uk

53.
Commuters like
their private bubble
Even if commuting by car takes longer,
people would stick it out in traffic.
Some prefer this alone time, in comfort,
to listen to music or just to reflect.
Imagesource:axt.org.uk

54.
Core message
‘Banishing the car from urban
areas is becoming a common
trend in many European cities.’
Jack Stewart, BBC Future news, February 2014

55.
What happens when
things go wrong?

56.
Zero UI - A move towards
effortless interactions with
cars

57.
Mixed
economy

58.
Source:
Slide subtitle max 2 lines, lorem ipsum dolor
sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit
Title 1 line
Imagesource:www.motortrend.com
Productivity gains

59.
Source:
Slide subtitle max 2 lines, lorem ipsum dolor
sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit
Title 1 line
Imagesource:www.wired.com
Xx

60.
Source:
Slide subtitle max 2 lines, lorem ipsum dolor
sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit
Title 1 line
Imagesource:www.partcatalog.com
Productivity gains

61.
PeterCampbell,October16,2016

62.
We help companies work out
what to do next with their products
...and why

63.
Slide 68Section
Title 1 lineWe’re now on the
road to autonomous
vehicles
Imagesource:auto10.com

64.
Less congestion,
more speed