More Related Content Similar to Social media atlanta 111010 Similar to Social media atlanta 111010 (20) 1. Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
Jerry Rocha VP, Media Solutions
Kety Esquivel VP, Ogilvy PR
James Andrews, Founder- Everywhere
Natalie Keng, Founder/Owner, Chinese Southern Belle
The New Face of Opportunity
Growing when the marketplace isn’t
2. 2
Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
20.0
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24.0
26.0
28.0
30.0
1900 1915 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Birth Rate -…
The Roots of the 21st Century Lie in the 20th
Post WWII
Baby Boom
Population Aging/
Changes in
Immigration
Increases in Life
Expectancy
Urbanization &
Industrialization
The New Face of Opportunity
3. 3
Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
3
Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
And Lead to Six Key 21st Century Trends
Uneven
Population
Growth
Declining
% of HH with
Children
Immigration
& Growth in
Ethnic Families
Older
Consumers with
New Needs
Declines in
Per HH
Spending
Income Declines
& Growing
Concentration
The New Face of Opportunity
4. 4
Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
Uneven Global Population Growth
-
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
8,000,000
9,000,000
10,000,000
2010 to 2050: + 2.24 billion people (32%)
Only 1.7% from the More Developed Regions
Less Developed will grow 58 times faster than
More Developed
The New Face of Opportunity
Source: UN Population Division 2008 Revision
More developed regions
Other less developed
India
Africa
China
5. 5
Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
Declining Family HH Share
25
30
35
40
45
50
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
%HHswithChildren-U.S.
• U.S. fertility rates lead the More Developed
Regions, but still less than 30% of HHs will
have children
• Large families, who have formed the
backbone of the consumer products
marketplace for decades, will be a niche
market in much of the more developed world.
The New Face of Opportunity
6. 6
Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
Immigration & Growth in Ethnic Families
Africa, Asia, South
America, Middle East
United States, Canada,
Europe, Australia
Immigrant Flows
20MM+ per decade
Young people leave
for opportunity
Leads to rapid growth
in ethnic populations
among families
Bring families or start
new ones
New immigrants & the children they will have account for over
80% of all HH growth to 2050
Account for all of the growth among HHs with children
The New Face of Opportunity
7. 7
Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
Slow Growth but a Lot of Change
0 5 10 15
Struggling
LowerMiddle
UpperMiddle
Affluent
Wealthy
-10.0 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0
White
Black
Asian
Other
Hispanic
---------------------------------2010 – 2020 HH Growth Rates---------------------------------
Total HHs with Kids Growth Rate – 7.3%
(Two Thirds the Rate of Total HHs)
Multi-cultural marketing will be mandatory throughout the
More Developed World to reach families with children
The New Face of Opportunity
8. 8
Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
U.S. Change in Share by Affluence
Groups
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
Struggling Lower Mid Upper Mid Affluent Wealthy
To 2020 To 2050
The New Face of Opportunity
9. 9
Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
3250
3300
3350
3400
3450
3500
3550
CY 2020 2030 2040 2050
CPG Per HH Spending Impacts
+0.15%
-1.8%
-3.4%
-4.5%
(Percentages versus current year)
The New Face of Opportunity
10. 10
Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
The New Media Landscape
The New Face of Opportunity
Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
11. 11
Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
The New Media Landscape
• TV still dominates, but it has changed
– Viewers watching as much as ever, despite growth of online
options
– Time-shifting via DVR’s
– High-definition
• Internet use is also changing
– Online video
– Social media
• Mobile phones are becoming all-purpose devices
– For accessing Internet
– For watching video
The New Face of Opportunity
11
12. 12
Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
The New Family with Children
Changing, Ethnic, Smaller, Older, Segmented
Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
The New Face of Opportunity
13. 13
Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
The New Family Market
Shrinking in share & size
HHs forming later / having kids later
Varied HH composition
Majority multi-cultural soon
Becoming more downscale
The New Face of Opportunity
13
14. 14
Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
2032
2034
2036
2038
2040
2042
2044
2046
2048
2050
White Black Asian Others Hispanic
Newborns Will Be Majority Multi-cultural
Before 2020
The New Face of Opportunity
U.S. Census Bureau
15. 15
Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
The New American Family
• Hispanics largest and fastest growing
segment within
• Easier to reach with targeted media
• Non Hispanic groups are more diverse
– Different languages
– Few national media choices
• Need to be targeted on the local level
– Multiple foreign language channels but no
national presence
– In Charter cable system in LA, Armenian
Channel is a top ten channel
The New Face of Opportunity
16. 16
Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
Hispanics’ Media Use
• Increasingly, reaching the
new family means
reaching Hispanics
• Where can you reach
them?
– How do their media habits
compare to those of
non-Hispanics?
The New Face of Opportunity
17. 17
Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
The Hispanic population is, indeed
concentrated in certain parts of the US
Source: Pew Hispanic Center analysis of Decenial Censuses for 1980 and 1990 and U.S.
Census Bureau county population estimates (vintage 2000 and 2008)
18. 18
Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
But significant growth giving way to new
Hispanic ‘hotspots’
Source: Pew Hispanic Center analysis of Decenial Censuses for 1980 and 1990 and U.S.
Census Bureau county population estimates (vintage 2000 and 2008)
19. 19
Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
Hispanic Households Watch Mostly
English-Language TV
-- Especially Kids and Teens
Source: National People Meter Panel 1Q10 (12/28/09 –
03/28/10); Share of total weighted viewing minutes based on HUT
The New Face of Opportunity
20. 20
Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
Hispanic Households Less Likely to Own
Home Computer with Internet Access or
Broadband
Source: National People Meter Panel 1Q10 (12/28/09 – 03/28/10)
Still…
• 6 out of 10 have home computer with
Internet
• Almost 6 out of 10 have broadband
The New Face of Opportunity
21. 21
Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
Hispanic Households with Home Internet Access
Spend Just as Much Time on the Internet And
Spend More Time Watching Online Video
Source: Nielsen 3-Screens Report 1Q 2010
Hispanic 18-34 year-olds watch twice
as much online video as non-
Hispanic counterparts
Monthly Time Spent in Hours:Minutes
The New Face of Opportunity
22. 22
Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
Hispanic Households More Likely to Own
Internet and Video-Enabled Cell Phones
Source: National People Meter Panel 1Q10 (12/28/09 – 03/28/10)
The New Face of Opportunity
23. 23
Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
Hispanics Spend More Time Watching
Video on Their Phones
Source: Nielsen 3-Screens Report 1Q 2010
Hispanics Use Cell Phones as
Substitutes for Home Computer
The New Face of Opportunity
24. 24
Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
Advertising to Hispanics
• Does advertising need to target and address Hispanics
directly, or will general market ads suffice?
– Nielsen IAG analysis found that ads created specifically for the
Hispanic market had higher recall than repurposed general market
spots:
– 16% higher brand recall
– 22% better message recall
– Higher recall apparently results from culturally relevant cues
embedded in the advertising, such as Hispanic characters, music
and themes.
The New Face of Opportunity
25. 25
Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
The New Face of Opportunity
The New Face of Opportunity
Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
Key Points to Take Away
26. 26
Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
What it means for marketers
• All multicultural demos are connected, social and mobile
today, looks like the general market of tomorrow
• They are uber connected and in fact a part of the
mainstream online from a targeting standpoint.
Understanding culture and mindset becomes even more
important in targeting this population effectively.
• Mobile marketing is finally becoming a reality; AA,
Hispanic consumers are an obvious consumer to target
on this platform.
Editor's Notes The roots of the demographic changes we have and will see in the 21st century lie in the last century. Urbanization and the shift to industrial economies have in modern times caused declines in fertility rates. When falling fertility rates are combined with increases in life expectancy the result is population aging. The degree and extent of aging we can see across the globe today is unprecedented. Demographers, sociologists, and marketers will need to develop new models and new ways of thinking to understand the shifts we see today and will continue to see for decades to come. Aging is here to stay but in the 60 the US saw a huge increase in immigration that is continuing todayBut aging is only the most visible effect. There are other more hidden impacts that will substantially change the global marketplace for consumer products. Manufacturers will be forced to reevaluate market segments and portfolio strategy. We see six trends that will change the face of the American consumer. Aging and meeting the needs of older consumers is only one. I’ll talk a bit about the others. Less than 2% of those folks will come from the more developed world.If you are looking for population growth to fuel your growth you will need to turn your back on the more developed world. Uneven population growth & economic development will spur unprecedented numbers of international migrants Countries in the More Developed Regions have already started to compete for immigrants, especially skilled ones. The More Developed World will need millions of immigrants to fill the labor force gaps left by their aging populations, and of course to pay taxes to support all those retired workers.<click>The hidden effect is how immigration impacts the ethnic makeup of families with children and younger consumers. It is primarily younger persons who become migrants, either bringing their families along with them or starting families in their new homes. The impact of large numbers of young immigrants entering a population is faster growth in ethnic populations among families with children. They become more ethnic more quickly than middle aged and older parts of the population.<click>In the U.S. Hispanics make up a much higher share of HHs with children than total HHs. By 2025 the majority of U.S. HHs with children will be multi-cultural – less than half will be non Hispanic native born white. This same effect will appear throughout the more developed world forcing marketers to think about different tastes and perhaps different languages when selling to this group. Let’s look at what’s going on.
