Social media atlanta 111010

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  • The roots of the demographic changes we have and will see in the 21st century lie in the last century. Urbanization and the shift to industrial economies have in modern times caused declines in fertility rates. When falling fertility rates are combined with increases in life expectancy the result is population aging. The degree and extent of aging we can see across the globe today is unprecedented. Demographers, sociologists, and marketers will need to develop new models and new ways of thinking to understand the shifts we see today and will continue to see for decades to come. Aging is here to stay but in the 60 the US saw a huge increase in immigration that is continuing todayBut aging is only the most visible effect. There are other more hidden impacts that will substantially change the global marketplace for consumer products. Manufacturers will be forced to reevaluate market segments and portfolio strategy.
  • We see six trends that will change the face of the American consumer. Aging and meeting the needs of older consumers is only one. I’ll talk a bit about the others.
  • Less than 2% of those folks will come from the more developed world.If you are looking for population growth to fuel your growth you will need to turn your back on the more developed world.
  • Uneven population growth & economic development will spur unprecedented numbers of international migrants Countries in the More Developed Regions have already started to compete for immigrants, especially skilled ones. The More Developed World will need millions of immigrants to fill the labor force gaps left by their aging populations, and of course to pay taxes to support all those retired workers.<click>The hidden effect is how immigration impacts the ethnic makeup of families with children and younger consumers. It is primarily younger persons who become migrants, either bringing their families along with them or starting families in their new homes. The impact of large numbers of young immigrants entering a population is faster growth in ethnic populations among families with children. They become more ethnic more quickly than middle aged and older parts of the population.<click>In the U.S. Hispanics make up a much higher share of HHs with children than total HHs. By 2025 the majority of U.S. HHs with children will be multi-cultural – less than half will be non Hispanic native born white. This same effect will appear throughout the more developed world forcing marketers to think about different tastes and perhaps different languages when selling to this group.
  • Let’s look at what’s going on.
  • Social media atlanta 111010

    1. 1. Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. Jerry Rocha VP, Media Solutions Kety Esquivel VP, Ogilvy PR James Andrews, Founder- Everywhere Natalie Keng, Founder/Owner, Chinese Southern Belle The New Face of Opportunity Growing when the marketplace isn’t
    2. 2. 2 Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 18.0 20.0 22.0 24.0 26.0 28.0 30.0 1900 1915 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Birth Rate -… The Roots of the 21st Century Lie in the 20th Post WWII Baby Boom Population Aging/ Changes in Immigration Increases in Life Expectancy Urbanization & Industrialization The New Face of Opportunity
    3. 3. 3 Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. 3 Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. And Lead to Six Key 21st Century Trends Uneven Population Growth Declining % of HH with Children Immigration & Growth in Ethnic Families Older Consumers with New Needs Declines in Per HH Spending Income Declines & Growing Concentration The New Face of Opportunity
    4. 4. 4 Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. Uneven Global Population Growth - 1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000 6,000,000 7,000,000 8,000,000 9,000,000 10,000,000 2010 to 2050: + 2.24 billion people (32%) Only 1.7% from the More Developed Regions Less Developed will grow 58 times faster than More Developed The New Face of Opportunity Source: UN Population Division 2008 Revision More developed regions Other less developed India Africa China
    5. 5. 5 Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. Declining Family HH Share 25 30 35 40 45 50 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 %HHswithChildren-U.S. • U.S. fertility rates lead the More Developed Regions, but still less than 30% of HHs will have children • Large families, who have formed the backbone of the consumer products marketplace for decades, will be a niche market in much of the more developed world. The New Face of Opportunity
    6. 6. 6 Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. Immigration & Growth in Ethnic Families Africa, Asia, South America, Middle East United States, Canada, Europe, Australia Immigrant Flows 20MM+ per decade Young people leave for opportunity Leads to rapid growth in ethnic populations among families Bring families or start new ones New immigrants & the children they will have account for over 80% of all HH growth to 2050 Account for all of the growth among HHs with children The New Face of Opportunity
    7. 7. 7 Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. Slow Growth but a Lot of Change 0 5 10 15 Struggling LowerMiddle UpperMiddle Affluent Wealthy -10.0 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 White Black Asian Other Hispanic ---------------------------------2010 – 2020 HH Growth Rates--------------------------------- Total HHs with Kids Growth Rate – 7.3% (Two Thirds the Rate of Total HHs) Multi-cultural marketing will be mandatory throughout the More Developed World to reach families with children The New Face of Opportunity
    8. 8. 8 Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. U.S. Change in Share by Affluence Groups -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 Struggling Lower Mid Upper Mid Affluent Wealthy To 2020 To 2050 The New Face of Opportunity
    9. 9. 9 Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. 3250 3300 3350 3400 3450 3500 3550 CY 2020 2030 2040 2050 CPG Per HH Spending Impacts +0.15% -1.8% -3.4% -4.5% (Percentages versus current year) The New Face of Opportunity
    10. 10. 10 Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. The New Media Landscape The New Face of Opportunity Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
    11. 11. 11 Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. The New Media Landscape • TV still dominates, but it has changed – Viewers watching as much as ever, despite growth of online options – Time-shifting via DVR’s – High-definition • Internet use is also changing – Online video – Social media • Mobile phones are becoming all-purpose devices – For accessing Internet – For watching video The New Face of Opportunity 11
    12. 12. 12 Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. The New Family with Children Changing, Ethnic, Smaller, Older, Segmented Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. The New Face of Opportunity
    13. 13. 13 Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. The New Family Market Shrinking in share & size HHs forming later / having kids later Varied HH composition Majority multi-cultural soon Becoming more downscale The New Face of Opportunity 13
    14. 14. 14 Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0 90.0 100.0 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040 2042 2044 2046 2048 2050 White Black Asian Others Hispanic Newborns Will Be Majority Multi-cultural Before 2020 The New Face of Opportunity U.S. Census Bureau
    15. 15. 15 Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. The New American Family • Hispanics largest and fastest growing segment within • Easier to reach with targeted media • Non Hispanic groups are more diverse – Different languages – Few national media choices • Need to be targeted on the local level – Multiple foreign language channels but no national presence – In Charter cable system in LA, Armenian Channel is a top ten channel The New Face of Opportunity
    16. 16. 16 Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. Hispanics’ Media Use • Increasingly, reaching the new family means reaching Hispanics • Where can you reach them? – How do their media habits compare to those of non-Hispanics? The New Face of Opportunity
    17. 17. 17 Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. The Hispanic population is, indeed concentrated in certain parts of the US Source: Pew Hispanic Center analysis of Decenial Censuses for 1980 and 1990 and U.S. Census Bureau county population estimates (vintage 2000 and 2008)
    18. 18. 18 Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. But significant growth giving way to new Hispanic ‘hotspots’ Source: Pew Hispanic Center analysis of Decenial Censuses for 1980 and 1990 and U.S. Census Bureau county population estimates (vintage 2000 and 2008)
    19. 19. 19 Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. Hispanic Households Watch Mostly English-Language TV -- Especially Kids and Teens Source: National People Meter Panel 1Q10 (12/28/09 – 03/28/10); Share of total weighted viewing minutes based on HUT The New Face of Opportunity
    20. 20. 20 Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. Hispanic Households Less Likely to Own Home Computer with Internet Access or Broadband Source: National People Meter Panel 1Q10 (12/28/09 – 03/28/10) Still… • 6 out of 10 have home computer with Internet • Almost 6 out of 10 have broadband The New Face of Opportunity
    21. 21. 21 Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. Hispanic Households with Home Internet Access Spend Just as Much Time on the Internet And Spend More Time Watching Online Video Source: Nielsen 3-Screens Report 1Q 2010 Hispanic 18-34 year-olds watch twice as much online video as non- Hispanic counterparts Monthly Time Spent in Hours:Minutes The New Face of Opportunity
    22. 22. 22 Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. Hispanic Households More Likely to Own Internet and Video-Enabled Cell Phones Source: National People Meter Panel 1Q10 (12/28/09 – 03/28/10) The New Face of Opportunity
    23. 23. 23 Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. Hispanics Spend More Time Watching Video on Their Phones Source: Nielsen 3-Screens Report 1Q 2010 Hispanics Use Cell Phones as Substitutes for Home Computer The New Face of Opportunity
    24. 24. 24 Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. Advertising to Hispanics • Does advertising need to target and address Hispanics directly, or will general market ads suffice? – Nielsen IAG analysis found that ads created specifically for the Hispanic market had higher recall than repurposed general market spots: – 16% higher brand recall – 22% better message recall – Higher recall apparently results from culturally relevant cues embedded in the advertising, such as Hispanic characters, music and themes. The New Face of Opportunity
    25. 25. 25 Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. The New Face of Opportunity The New Face of Opportunity Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. Key Points to Take Away
    26. 26. 26 Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. What it means for marketers • All multicultural demos are connected, social and mobile today, looks like the general market of tomorrow • They are uber connected and in fact a part of the mainstream online from a targeting standpoint. Understanding culture and mindset becomes even more important in targeting this population effectively. • Mobile marketing is finally becoming a reality; AA, Hispanic consumers are an obvious consumer to target on this platform.

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