Energy Council Presentation 3 7 09

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Presentation to Federal, State and Provincial Congressional Members on the reliability of the grid. Pointing to the importance of transmission.

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Energy Council Presentation 3 7 09

  1. 1. The Grid Today The Energy Council’s 2009 Federal Energy and Environmental Matters Conference
  2. 2. About NERC: Mission To ensure the reliability of the North American bulk power system  Develop & enforce reliability standards  Assess current and future reliability  Analyze system events & recommend improved practices  Encourage active participation by all stakeholders  Pursue mandatory standards across North America
  3. 3. Directions to Moving Forward  Long-Term Reliability  Key Reliability Objectives  Current Climate Initiatives
  4. 4. Long-Term Reliability  Adequacy generally improving over past years  Transmission is essential  Integration of new generation sources (renewables, nuclear, next gen coal, PHEV…)  Demand response increasing
  5. 5. Key Objective: Support Transmission  Climate objectives cannot be fulfilled without focus on transmission  “Clean Energy Superhighway” needed  System planning Source: EPRI & NREL must take a Wind Availability Compared to Demand Centers “continental” view Note: o Blue indicates areas with high wind potential, o Brown indicates large demand centers, and o Green indicates areas with little wind potential and smaller demand centers
  6. 6. Status of Transmission…  The electric transmission system operates close to the edge of its capacity • Roughly $70 billion of investment in 20,000 miles of extra high-voltage transmission will be needed to preserve the status quo over the next 10 years  Future energy policy objectives such as achieving energy independence or reducing carbon emissions are off the table without significant upgrades to the transmission system • Roughly $100 billion of investment in 30,000 miles of additional extra high-voltage transmission will be needed to meet energy policy objectives by 2024
  7. 7. NERC Regional Entities
  8. 8. Wind Projected to Grow  145,000 MW of wind to be added in coming 10 years  Recommendations: • Flexibility • Forecasting Figure 5: Projected Increase in Existing, Planned & Proposed Summer On- Peak Wind Capacity • Transmission 12,000 30% 26.4% 10,000 25% 19.9%19.9% 19.6% 8,000 20% 17.2% MW 15.0% 13.4% 13.1% 6,000 15% 11.5% 9.1% 8.7% 8.7% 4,000 10% 2,000 5% 0 0% 2008 2017 2008 2017 2008 2017 2008 2017 2008 2017 2008 2017 2008 2017 2008 2017 ERCOT FRCC MRO NPCC RFC SERC SPP WECC Existing Planned Proposed % of Expected-Peak Wind Capacity to Nameplate Capacity
  9. 9. 2008/09 Winter Wind Generation Grows Capacity available on peak ranges from 8.7% to 26% Projected Winter Wind Total Nameplate Capacity 14,000 12,000 10,000 MW 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 ERCOT FRCC MRO NPCC RFC SERC SPP WECC Existing Planned Proposed
  10. 10. Key Objective: Demand-Side Resources US Peak Demand (1994-2017) 950,000 900,000 850,000 800,000 Megawatts 750,000 U.S. peak demand projected 700,000 to grow by 17% by 2018 650,000 600,000 550,000 500,000 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 Year C a p a c it y D e m a n d R e s p o n s e ( M W ) - 1 0 y e a r P r o je c t io n 8 000 7 000 6 000 5 000 4 000 MW 3 000 2 000 1 000 0 2008 2017 2 008 20 17 2008 2017 2008 2 017 200 8 2017 2008 2 017 200 8 2017 2008 2 017 ERC OT FR CC MRO NPCC RFC SE R C S PP W EC C T o ta l C a p a c ity D e m a n d R e s p o n s e D ir e c t C o n tr o l L o a d M a n a g e m e n t C o n tr a c tu a l ly In te r r u p t ib le ( C u r ta i la b l e ) C ri tic a l P e a k -P r ic in g w ith C o n t ro l L o a d a s a C a p a c ity R e s o u r c e
  11. 11. Modernized Grid – Integration Key “Smart Grids” can support reliability  Variable Resources Reliable  Demand response Demand Renewables Response  Large deployment of sensor & automation technologies Energy Smart Grid Independent Efficiency  Innovative applications of electricity Secure Nuclear  Flexibility Next gen Coal  Cyber-Security vital
  12. 12. Components to the Intelligent Network – Many are focused in vertical silos Generation Circuit Transformers AMI Load Management Consumer Portal  Capacitor Bank     Smart switch Wind Voltage Monitoring Real-Time Metering Monitoring     Smart thermostat Solar Outage Detection TOU/CPP Pricing  Predictive Maintenance     Real-time DLC Geothermal Theft Detection Outage Monitoring  Security (Video/Audio) management and    Hydro Asset Failure Alarms Voltage Monitoring verification  Load Management   Biomass Smart substation  Load profiling  OMS/DMS   High Temperature Biofuels  Aggregation of curtailed  Broadband over Power Superconducting (HTS)  Carbon capture load Lines Cables  Nuclear  Underground  Advanced SCADA  Carbon cap and trade Transmission  Mesh networks  Storage technology  HTS Transformers  Capacitors
  13. 13. Integration of Variable Generation Task Force (IVGTF) Scope  Task Force will prepare: • Concepts document: philosophical & technical considerations • Recommendations: practices, requirements & reliability standards  Document will include: • Planning timeframe issues • Operational Planning and Real-time Operating timeframe issues • Review NERC Standards for gaps • Review of future developments: i.e. storage, EHV • Conclusions and recommendations
  14. 14. Current Climate Initiatives  40 U.S. States and all Canadian Provinces are involved in some form of climate change initiative.
  15. 15. Key Objective: Decision on U.S. Policy  Regulatory certainty needed to enable resource development  Can result in great improvements • New generation technologies • Diversified fuel mix • Strengthened & “smarter” grid
  16. 16. Key Objectives and Emerging Issues Emerging Issues Risk Evolution: High Greenhouse Increased Demand-Side & Gas Distributed Generation Reductions Likelihood Resources Rising Global Demand for Fuel Storage & Energy & Transportation Equipment 6-10Years 1-5 Years Mercury Transmission of Regulation Limited Water the 21st Century Availability Low High Consequence
  17. 17. Smart, Modern Grids and Reliability  Regulators can • Implement formulas for cost allocation/cost recovery • Provide certainty & support transmission infrastructure siting, planning, construction • Flexible on innovative planning  Policy makers/Educators can • Promote reliability as incorporating all components “FIS” flexibility- integration- smart • Tell story with all pieces  Planners can • Maintain Future Bulk Power System Reliability • Change how they design grids  Operators can • Expand understanding of new resources • Manage variability/uncertainty • Pre-position systems
  18. 18. Reliability Must Haves  Interoperability • Regulatory Certainty • Smart and Flexible-  solid partnerships  Diverse Fuel Supply  Demand Side Resources  Interconnectivity • Renewables and Transmission State and PARTERNSHIP w/ State and regional regional
  19. 19. One picture speaks a thousand words…. Growth in Electricity Supply, Demand, and Transmission (1990 -2007) 35 30% growth 30% growth 30 25 Percentage 20 15 10% growth 10 5 0 Transmission Supply Demand
  20. 20. Question & Answer Contact: Julia Souder Director, Inter-Governmental Relations Julia.souder@nerc.net 202.393.3998

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