Focus is programmable communications. Special themes on conversational intelligence, identity and fraud, open source, and quantum computing. There’s no registration, content is freely available. Everything will be posted on the agenda: https://blog.tadsummit.com/2021/02/16/tadsummit-asia-2021-agenda/ Presentations are pre-recorded, released one per day through May 2021. Q&A is in the comments section of the weblog devoted to each presentation. Please ask questions. In 2021 across the main programmable communication categories, total revenue is $75B+ UCaaS ($33B), 5% CCaaS ($18B), 20% CPaaS ($11B), 36% Business Messaging ($6B), 30% Identity verification ($4B with TAM of $25B - $55B as its all about customer experience), 60%+ Automation tech ($6B with TAM of $30B), 60%+ Twilio (and many others) do programmable communications CPaaS (think atomic APIs), business messaging (SMS, IP, email), aggregation, authentication, SIP trunking, CCaaS, automation tech, IoT, and much more… Doing telecoms/communications in a web way is changing the market now and into the future, different trajectory to telcos SMS and voice will remain in rude health Social messaging is necessary, but it only part of the answer Recognize it’s a smartphone (voice, camera, browser, messaging) Wholesale consolidation will continue and margins will be squeezed (in the medium to long term) Applications are necessary for margin growth Application focus will move into conversations, insight, and customer experience (customers get to what they want faster) In 2021: UCaaS ($33B), CCaaS ($18B), CPaaS ($11B), Business Messaging ($6B), Identity verification ($4B with TAM of $25B - $55B as its all about customer experience), Automation tech ($6B with TAM of $30B) – $75B+ in 2021. It’s a smart phone: voice, messaging (SMS and IP), camera (video and pictures), browser (signing documents, all your online processes), all the contextual information about the device and the user. Unprecedented consolidation through 2020 into 2021, mainly within programmable communications. We’re going to see in the coming years are more enterprise / web companies joining this spree. Will Okta need more than 2FA for mobile authentication? Think of Programmable Communications as telecoms done in a web way. Question: are telcos or enterprise/web companies more likely to act fast? Programmable Communications will continue to live in interesting times, even after the pandemic! My weblog: https://alanquayle.com/blog/ CXTech newsletter, weekly programmable communications news with opinion TADSummit weblog: https://blog.tadsummit.com/ All the TADSummit content, videos, slides, and reviews TADSummit Agenda https://www.tadsummit.com/2020/emea_americas/agenda-emea-americas/ https://www.tadsummit.com/2020/asia/agenda/ https://blog.tadsummit.com/2021/02/16/tadsummit-asia-2021-agenda/

1. Welcome to TADSummit Asia 2021!
Sponsored by

2. TADSummit 2013-2021

3. How TADSummit Asia 2021 works
• Focus is programmable communications.
• Special themes on conversational intelligence, identity and fraud, open
source, and quantum computing.
• There’s no registration, content is freely available.
• Everything will be posted on the agenda:
https://blog.tadsummit.com/2021/02/16/tadsummit-asia-2021-agenda/
• Presentations are pre-recorded, released one per day through May.
• Q&A is in the comments section of the weblog devoted to each
presentation. Please ask questions.

4. Thank you to our presenters

5. Thank you to our presenters

6. Programmable Comms Review
Alan Quayle, independent
Sponsored by

7. Landscape, Market
Sizing, and Growth
Trends and Strategy
2020 Review
+ Q1 ‘21

8. Landscape, Market Sizing, and Growth
Sponsored by

9. CPaaS
Communication Enabling Software and Platforms / Open Source Projects
Business Messaging
In-App
Communications
Employee Communications. Unified Comms,
business telephony, phone systems, messaging,
collaboration
Enterprise Channel (Gamma, WWT, Verizon, AT&T, etc)
Customer Communications. Contact center,
messaging, trust, ..
Automation Technologies (bots, speech rec, analytics, workflow management, knowledge management,
conversational interfaces, marketing automation)
© Alan Quayle 2021
Programmable Comms Market (CXTech)

10. CPaaS – those that identify as + do more than SMS
© Alan Quayle 2021

11. Bottom-up Build of Market Size
Public CPaaS 2018 Revenue
2019 Growth2020 Growth2021 Growth2022 Growth Employees Simple Description
2600Hz / Kazoo 10 30% 30% 25% 25% 40 Refocused on CPaaS / UCaaS enabler with Kazoo
46elks 8 25% 25% 20% 20% 8 Swedish CPaaS
Aculab 25 25% 25% 20% 20% 80 Long established enterprise comms provider
AeriaLink 5 45% 45% 40% 40% 20 Landline messaging
Amazon 180 75% 70% 65% 60% 145
Simple Notifiction Service, MFA, resell of Twilio Voice (but likely
to roll its oen in time), plus voice services like Poly and Chime
Apeiron (bought 2019 Konatel) 2 40% 40% 35% 35% 3 Couple of years old cpaas, based in CA
Apifonica (Dzinga) 10 35% 35% 35% 35% 25 European CPaaS - focused on services
aql 20 35% 35% 35% 35% 80 Long established wholesale telecoms provider
babl.biz 10 35% 35% 35% 35% 20 UK-based CPaaS
Bandwidth 165 30% 40% 35% 32% 400 NAR-focused voice/messaging API (911 focus)
BrightLink 20 40% 40% 35% 32% 30 Cloud based PBX / CPaaS
Callfire 25 40% 40% 35% 35% 90 Voice/SMS customer comms
Callr 5 35% 35% 35% 35% 8 Paris-based CPaaS since 2010
Cequens 45 35% 35% 35% 35% 125 MEA focus
Cloudonix 1 100% 80% 70% 60% Cloud based Asterisk platform
CM 25 20% 20% 15% 15% 100 Dutch Business Messaging / CPaaS
CYDNE 15 35% 35% 30% 30% 80 Notification services (voice and messaging)
Exotel 15 35% 35% 35% 35% 120 India based CPaaS
Flowroute (West) 15 35% 35% 35% 30% 50 NAR-focused SIP Trunking provider
FoneDynamics 5 25% 25% 25% 25% 20 Australian CPaaS bought by Uniti Wireless
hoiio 25 65% 65% 60% 55% 45 Singapore based CPaaS - expanding in Asia
Infobip 400 10% 10% 10% 10% 1800 Original A2P SMS provider, based in Crotia
Intelepeer 170 25% 25% 25% 25% 240
CPaaS products complementary to UC/CC solutions, channel
sales model, expanding internationally
Pre-pandemic 2020 Growth was
estimated to be 30%, but post-
pandemic estimate is 40% (Q1
31%, Q2 40%, Q3 43%, Q4 45%) –
Zoom US DID provision (Colt and
BICS cover international),
Voxbone is still recorded
separately in this sheet.

12. • All depends on your customers mix
• Web companies with role in ecommerce / WFH – massive acceleration in revenue
• Traditional retail / travel verticals (20-80% decline in revenues)
• But, web companies in travel, e.g. Airbnb have maintained CPaaS traffic as people
are still travelling (see next slide) and increased chat around bookings
• General businesses have weathered pandemic with 10-20% decline
• Twilio, Zoom, and a few others in the 100+% growth are more the exceptions
• 5% have 30% increase on pre-pandemic estimates
• 30% have 10% increase
• 45% are unchanged
• 20% have 10% decrease
Impact of Pandemic on CPaaS / Messaging: Mixed

13. US Travel Data: 45% of 2019 in Dec/Jan
(7 day moving average)

14. 0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
1/1/21
1/3/21
1/5/21
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1/9/21
1/11/21
1/13/21
1/15/21
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1/31/21
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2/6/21
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2/24/21
2/26/21
2/28/21
3/2/21
3/4/21
3/6/21
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3/10/21
3/12/21
3/14/21
3/16/21
3/18/21
3/20/21
3/22/21
3/24/21
3/26/21
3/28/21
3/30/21
4/1/21
4/3/21
TSA checkpoint Travel Numbers 2021 / 2020 / 2019 Q1
2021 Traveler Throughput 2020 Traveler Throughput 2019 Traveler Throughput 7 per. Mov. Avg. (2021 Traveler Throughput) 7 per. Mov. Avg. (2019 Traveler Throughput)
US Travel Data: 65% of 2019 in April 2021

15. CPaaS
Market Sizing
• Wait a minute!
• Twilio achieved 132%
QonQ revenue growth in
July 2020
• Zoom had 355% QonQ
growth in August 2020
• Exceptions do not make a
market. Overall, 2020
results have been mixed.
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
USD
Millions
Public CPaaS Revenues
SIP Trunking Core API Business Messaging
Authenitcation IoT CCaaS
UCaaS Total

16. CPaaS
Market CAGR
• Core API has peak CAGR in
2020/2021 of 35%
• Growth acceleration in
2021+ from UCaaS, CCaaS,
Authentication as focus
moves to solutions not
atomic APIs
• Significant substitution of
telco revenues (SIP trunking,
enterprise telephony) +
market expansion
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
USD
Millions
Public CPaaS Revenues
SIP Trunking Core API Business Messaging
Authenitcation IoT CCaaS
UCaaS Total

17. CPaaS
Market
Company HQ
• Web companies drive
global volumes – one
account global reach
• US presence is important
for growth – even though
traffic is in EMEA or Asia,
revenue ‘flows’ through US
decisions
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Revenue Distrubtion by Company HQ
Americas EMEA Asia

18. Interestingly, We’ve Reached an Equitable
Situation in Global Telecom Revenues 2020
Telecom services: Fixed telephony and broadband. Mobile voice, messaging, and broadband. Total is about $1.35T.
34%
33%
33%
Global Distribution of Telecom Revenues
Americas APAC EMEA
Global coverage is
important

19. © Alan Quayle 2020
Business Messaging – SMS Focused

20. Bottom-up Build of Market Size
Business Messaging
Partial list, there's 100+ more, many geographically focused on regions / cities
3C Interactive (IMIMobile) 24 35% 35% 35% 35% 100 SMS shortcode business messaging
ActiveCampaign 100 25% 25% 25% 25% 375
Email marketing, expanded into business messaging and
automation
AirMovil 5 45% 45% 45% 45% 15 Mexico based, business messaging projects
aldeamo 12 35% 35% 35% 35% 50 Latim America based business messaging / aggregation
Avidmobile 8 15% 15% 15% 15% 10 Business messaging with reseller model
avochato 4 65% 65% 65% 65% 18 Business messaging for CRM platforms
Callloop 4 5 Business messaging and calling, not sure of current status
Clickatel 60 20% 20% 20% 20% 140 Business Messaging (less CPaaS focus)
Clicksend 5 50% 50% 50% 50% 18 Oz based aggregator for business messaging
ComAPI 18 25% 25% 25% 25% 45
UK based business messaging aggregator - bought 2017 by
dotdigital (adding services beyong aggregation)
Digital Media Interactive (Parateum) 5 25% 25% 25% 25% 20 Aggregator for business messaging
enageSPARK 3 20% 20% 20% 20% 12 Philippines based business communications workflows
EZTexting 25 35% 35% 35% 35% 110 US based business messaging
gupshup 50 50% 50% 50% 50% 120 India based business messaging raised 40+M
HeyWire (SFDC) 55 30% 30% 30% 30% 100 Business Messaging within SFDC
Hustle 20 25% 25% 25% 25% 80 US based business messaging focused on p2p comms
IMIMobile 170 30% 30% 25% 25% 2000 India based technology and business messaging provider
ImpactMobile 10 20% 20% 20% 20% 20 Business messaging, based in Canada, division of IMIMobile
Lime Cellular 25 35% 35% 35% 35% 45 Business messaging reseller / provider
MacroKiosk 30 25% 25% 25% 25% 60 KL based enterprise messaging / payments
Mediaburst / ClockworkSMS 20 45% 45% 45% 45% 15 Manchester based SMS API / Aggregator
MessageMedia 8 20% 20% 20% 20% 40 Australian Business Messaging

21. Business
Messaging
Market Size
• Biased by bottom-up
CPaaS-focused build,
missing lots of ‘traditional’
telco related A2P revenues.
• Similar CAGR BM = 31%,
CPaaS CAGR = 29%.
• Not trying to be complete
on A2P – focus is API related
(but its all converging).
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Business Messaging
BM Focused Total inc CPaaS

22. Wholesale
versus
Enterprise
• Similarly, wholesale versus
enterprise misses some of the
traditional A2P revenues.
• Enterprise includes web
companies and ‘aaS providers
(UCaaS / CCaaS)
• Enterprise CAGR 35%,
Wholesale 22% (guarantee
traditional A2P growth is not
22%). Think of it as ‘API’
Wholesale.
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Wholesale versus Enterprise Messaging
Wholesale Enterprise (inc web and aaS)

23. Employee Communications
UC, business telephony, phone systems Messaging and collaboration
© Alan Quayle 2019

24. UC / Enterprise Phone System / Collaboration Market Sizing
• Bottom-up analysis is similar to top-down predictions, UC market is approx.
$33B in 2021!
• Dominated by voice traffic.
• Messaging is a small piece: alerts, notifications, and SMS comms from UC
client, <3%
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Enterprise Voice / UC / Collaboration
Total

25. Voice is BIG!
• It is in decline, about 2% pa.
• $300B in mobile (4T min in US alone, CTIA)
• $100B in international voice (400B min)
• $200B in fixed / VoIP
• UK are still talking 25 min per day (source OFCOM)
• There’s a subtle shift: making it easy to create voice calls
from anywhere (voice API)
• Zoom Phone API
• Zoom Conference API
• 1 min = 1c (retail) = 75kB of data = 0.04c (wholesale)
• BIG well understood market with 96% margin!

26. Customer Communications Market Sizing
• Bottom-up analysis close to top-down predictions, CC market is approx. $18B in 2021 with a
CAGR of 20+%!
• Voice API NOT voice interconnect (wholesale), still $5B by 2024 (includes Twilio Flex)
• Messaging covers mobile marketing, omnichannel, notifications / alerts, chat, not bot
charges or related AI VAS charges. $2B by 2024.
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Customer Communications
Total Voice API Messaging API

27. TAM $18B includes legacy
CCaaS Landscape
Large (>$500M)
TAM $10B
Emerging
TAM TBD
Medium ($100M-$500M)
TAM $6B
Small ($10M-$100M)
TAM $2B
Wholesale / Interconnect
Telcos…..
CPaaS

28. UCaaS (TAM $33B includes legacy)
UCaaS Landscape (AKA Virtual PBX)
Large (>$500M)
TAM $15B
Emerging
TAM TBD
Medium ($100M-$500M)
TAM $13B
Small ($5M-$100M)
TAM $5B
Wholesale / Interconnect
Telcos…..
CPaaS

29. Key Points
• In 2021 across the main programmable communication categories,
total revenue is $75B+
• UCaaS ($33B), 5%
• CCaaS ($18B), 20%
• CPaaS ($11B), 36%
• Business Messaging ($6B), 30%
• Identity verification ($4B with TAM of $25B - $55B as its all about customer
experience), 60%+
• Automation tech ($6B with TAM of $30B), 60%+
• Twilio (and many others) do programmable communications
• CPaaS (think atomic APIs), business messaging (SMS, IP, email), aggregation,
authentication, SIP trunking, CCaaS, automation tech, IoT, and much more…
• Doing telecoms/communications in a web way is changing the
market now and into the future, different trajectory to telcos

30. Trends and Strategy
Sponsored by

31. CPaaS
Communication Enabling Software and Platforms / Open Source Projects
Business Messaging
In-App
Communications
Employee Communications. Unified Comms,
business telephony, phone systems, messaging,
collaboration
Enterprise Channel (Gamma, WWT, Verizon, AT&T, etc)
Customer Communications. Contact center,
messaging, trust, ..
Automation Technologies (bots, speech rec, analytics, workforce management, knowledge management,
conversational interfaces, marketing automation)
© Alan Quayle 2021
Trends: Business
Consolidation: Volumes up / Costs down
Applications
>
Margins

32. Programmable Comms Model

33. Market Trends: Customer Communications

38. Marlon Bowser, CEO, HTK (data-driven
CX & loyalty)
• https://blog.tadsummit.com/2020/11/12/innovator-interview-marlon-bowser/
• “The contextual relevance of voice, SMS, email or web chat as channels will
remain for years to come. We really are at the early days of using WhatsApp, FB
Messenger, Android Messenger (with RCS hidden under the hood).”

42. Which means that…
• SMS and voice will remain in rude health
• Social messaging is necessary, but it only part of the answer
• Recognize it’s a smartphone (voice, camera, browser,
messaging)
• Wholesale consolidation will continue and margins will be
squeezed (in the medium to long term)
• Applications are necessary for margin growth
• Application focus will move into conversations, insight, and
customer experience (customers get to what they want faster)

43. 2020 in Review (+ Q1 2021)
Sponsored by

44. 2020 Review Q1
• Back in January 2020, the Australian bush fires were
the top story – global warming
• Industry discussion was:
• How can Zoom maintain its current valuation? Growth
was without a doubt, but 85% through the rest of 2020
was considered tough.
• Similarly, for Twilio, but its poor categorization of CPaaS
by analysts is the problem.
• Enghouse bought Dialogic
• Comcast bought Blueface
• Sinch bought Chatlayer.ai
• Serenova and Lifesize merged
• And by March lockdowns began….

45. 2020 Review Q2
• M&A got into high gear
• Sinch bought Wavy
• Microsoft buys Affirmed Networks
• 8X8 bought CallStats.io
• Verizon bought Bluejeans
• Sinch buys SDI
• Microsoft buys Metaswitch
• Aircall raised $65M on $500M valuation
• Matrix raised $4.6M
• Zoom generated 169% year over year!
• MessageBird formally pivots to business
messaging from CPaaS / aggregation

46. 2020 Review Q3
• M&A continues
• Agora raised $350M
• Infobip raises $200M
• Payfone raises $100M
• BICS / Telesign up for sale
• Syniverse splits in prep for likely M&A
• AVC buys Kandy
• Intrado buys onsip
• Dialpad acquires highfive
• Route Mobile IPO
• RingCentral is on a partnership roll with Unify,
Avaya, ALE, and a list of telcos
• Twilio achieves 132% revenue growth (lots of
web-centric customers), RingCentral 32% growth
(more mixed bag of customers).

47. 2020 Review Q4
• M&A continues…
• Cap Gemini sells contact center business
• Element (Matrix) buys Gitter
• Messagebird raises $200M
• Dialpad raise $100M
• Bandwidth buys Voxbone
• Twilio buys Segment
• Inference bought by Five9
• Infobip buys Openmarket for $300M
• SFDC buys Slack
• Cisco buys imimobile
• Alianza buys Counterpath
• BigID raised $70M on $1B valuation
• Sinch raises about $390M on new share issue, and
Softbank bought a 10% stake for $690M, that’s a
total raise of >$1B!

48. 2021 Review Q1
• M&A continues…
• Socure raises $100M
• Seon raised $10M
• Pindrop acquires Next Caller
• thinQ aquires Commio
• Crexendo acquired NetSpiens
• Genesys buys Bold360
• Okta buys Auth0
• Gamma buys Mission Labs
• Netnumber buys SiRRAN and TD-Mobile
• Twilio invests in Syniverse and buys ValueFirst
• Kaleyra buys mGage
• Sinch buys Inteliquent
• Link Mobility buys Tismi
• Proximus acquires BICS and TeleSign
• Sangoma buys Star2Star
• Yac raised $7.5M
• TelcoSwitch buys OneVoice
• Enghouse buys Altitude Software
• Equifax buys Kount……

49. 2021+ Predictions
• Long hard slog through Q1-Q2 2021
• Lockdowns, mis-information, division, high infection rates, slow vaccine roll-out
• BUT the summer will bring vastly lower infection rates, 25%-50%
vaccinated, removal of many lockdowns
• By Q3 kids will be back in school full time, most lockdowns will be a thing
of the past
• Though masks will remain, and vaccination certificates for international travel
• By end of 2022 we will have jumped 10 years in 3 years because the
pandemic forced action, ‘why fix what isn’t broken?’
2020 2021 2022
Rapid Adoption of ‘aaS for
WFH / operations band-aids
Consolidation of ‘aaS in BAU, migration from
legacy infrastructure

50. Just like the Spanish Flu in
1919, people quickly forget

51. • WFH / flexible working / hot desking / distributed global teams exist BEFORE the
pandemic.
• Big corporations were often WFH, when not in a meetings. Though some
countries will see a significant jump in flexibility.
• Small (10s) and medium (100s) companies often need to work together in the
office
• Human behavior has not changed. People in the boss’s face are still likely to get
promoted.
• We will forget what 2020 felt like. Today we still do, but that will change.
Welcome to the New Normal?

52. • In 2021: UCaaS ($33B), CCaaS ($18B), CPaaS ($11B), Business Messaging ($6B), Identity
verification ($4B with TAM of $25B - $55B as its all about customer experience), Automation
tech ($6B with TAM of $30B) – $75B+ in 2021.
• It’s a smart phone: voice, messaging (SMS and IP), camera (video and pictures), browser
(signing documents, all your online processes), all the contextual information about the device
and the user.
• Unprecedented consolidation through 2020 into 2021, mainly within programmable
communications. We’re going to see in the coming years are more enterprise / web companies
joining this spree. Will Okta need more than 2FA for mobile authentication?
• Think of Programmable Communications as telecoms done in a web way. Question: are telcos
or enterprise/web companies more likely to act fast?
• Programmable Communications will continue to live in interesting times, even after the
pandemic!
But, we have jumped forward in time

53. Resources / Questions
• My weblog: https://alanquayle.com/blog/
• CXTech newsletter, weekly programmable communications news with opinion
• TADSummit weblog: https://blog.tadsummit.com/
• All the TADSummit content, videos, slides, and reviews
• TADSummit Agenda
• https://www.tadsummit.com/2020/emea_americas/agenda-emea-americas/
• https://www.tadsummit.com/2020/asia/agenda/
• https://blog.tadsummit.com/2021/02/16/tadsummit-asia-2021-agenda/
• Independent analysis, insight, advice, strategy, thought-leadership, business /
market development for anything communications / telecoms related
• Contact me: alan@alanquayle.com

54. THANK YOU J
Sponsored by