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Millington Research Overview | EED Seminar Sept 2013

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Millington Research Overview | EED Seminar Sept 2013

  1. 1. http://www.landscapemodelling.net Landscape Ecology Modelling & Simulation Dr. James Millington Lecturer in Physical and Quantitative Geography
  2. 2. Research Background http://www.landscapemodelling.net
  3. 3. Research Interests Landscape Ecology Modelling & Simulation http://www.landscapemodelling.net Succession- Disturbance Resource Management Agent-Based Epistemology
  4. 4. Landscape Change  Land Use/Cover Change http://www.landscapemodelling.net Millington et al. (2007)
  5. 5. Landscape Change  Land Use/Cover Change  Agricultural decision-making Agent-Based Model (ABM) http://www.landscapemodelling.net Millington et al. (2008)
  6. 6. Landscape Change  Land Use/Cover Change  Agricultural decision-making ABM  Landscape succession-disturbance (LFSM) http://www.landscapemodelling.net Millington et al. (2009)
  7. 7. Succession-Disturbance http://www.landscapemodelling.net
  8. 8. Succession-Disturbance Movie http://www.landscapemodelling.net
  9. 9. Succession-Disturbance http://www.landscapemodelling.net
  10. 10. Ongoing Modelling  Model assessment  Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses  Pattern-oriented modelling  Updating model to better represent climate and soil moisture http://www.landscapemodelling.net
  11. 11. Ongoing Modelling Carrion et al. 2010 http://www.landscapemodelling.net
  12. 12. Resource Management  Wildlife and timber management Timber Deer © L.S. Johnson Birds http://www.landscapemodelling.net
  13. 13. Selection Timber Harvest Shade-tolerant species regenerate in understory Intends to mimic gap- phase dynamics http://www.landscapemodelling.net
  14. 14. Variation in Gap Regeneration http://www.landscapemodelling.net
  15. 15. Simulation Model USFS Forest Vegetation Simulator MSU Regeneration Model 7.0m TreeHeight Deer Herbivory Landscape Forest Structure Forest Valuation Timber Harvest (light & seed availability) Site Quality (soil resources, competition) http://www.landscapemodelling.net
  16. 16. Deer Distribution http://www.landscapemodelling.net
  17. 17. Winter Deer Habitat Juxtaposition of northern hardwood and lowland conifer stands Provides winter food and thermal cover in close proximity Lowland Conifer Aspen Northern Hardwood Other 0 1km http://www.landscapemodelling.net
  18. 18. Deer Distribution Regression Deer Density = f(DLC, DBH) Bayesian Model Averaging to select this ‘best’ model http://www.landscapemodelling.net
  19. 19. Deer Distribution Example Deer Density – Original Low High deer/km2 Lowland Conifer 0 1km http://www.landscapemodelling.net
  20. 20. Deer Distribution Example Deer Density – Conifer Removal Lowland Conifer 0 1km Low High deer/km2 http://www.landscapemodelling.net
  21. 21. Simulation Model USFS Forest Vegetation Simulator MSU Regeneration Model 7.0m TreeHeight Deer Herbivory Landscape Forest Structure Forest Valuation Timber Harvest (light & seed availability) Site Quality (soil resources, competition) http://www.landscapemodelling.net
  22. 22. Gap Regeneration Scenarios 100% Regeneration 100 years 10-year timestep Year http://www.landscapemodelling.net
  23. 23. Gap Regeneration Scenarios 0% Regeneration 100 years 10-year timestep Year http://www.landscapemodelling.net
  24. 24. Combined effects? What are the combined effects of variable regeneration and timber management on songbirds and timber production? http://www.landscapemodelling.net
  25. 25. Bird Occupancy Probability  Occupancy Models (after MacKenzie et al.)  logit(p) = b0 + b1x1 + … bixi 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.0 0.6 OccupancyProbability Least Flycatcher Black Throated Green Warbler 0.0 12.5 25.0 37.5 50.0 Canopy Openness (%) http://www.landscapemodelling.net
  26. 26. Bird Occupancy Probability BTNW EAWP LEFL RBGR Canopy Openness (-ve) SumDiam15m (+ve) Canopy Height (+ve) Canopy Height (+ve) Canopy Openness (+ve) Basal Area (+ve) SumDiam20m (+ve) http://www.landscapemodelling.net
  27. 27. Birds vs. Timber vs. Regeneration http://www.landscapemodelling.net
  28. 28. Birds vs. Timber vs. Regeneration Black-Throated Green Warbler http://www.landscapemodelling.net
  29. 29. Integrated Simulation  Integrated forest management  Integrated simulation model: regeneration, timber and deer Millington et al. (2013) http://www.landscapemodelling.net
  30. 30. Ongoing Modelling  Spatial-temporal co-ordination of timber and wildlife management  Impact of variable snow at regional scale http://www.landscapemodelling.net
  31. 31. Transferable Methods!  Statistical models  Logistic regression modelling  Categorical or probabilistic dependent variable  Land cover, species abundance  Risk models, Forecast models  Multi-model inference  Evaluating evidence for different combinations of variables http://www.landscapemodelling.net
  32. 32. Transferable Methods!  Simulation approaches  For dispersal, diffusion, random walk processes  Cellular Automata & GIS modelling  Grid models with specified rules of change  Risk mapping and change  Individual- or Agent-based modelling  For representing discrete entities  Human activity, animal distribution, plant migration http://www.landscapemodelling.net

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