This document describes the research of Dr. James Millington on landscape ecology modelling and simulation. His research interests include landscape change through land use/cover change modeling, succession-disturbance modeling, and agent-based modeling of agricultural decision making. He has developed models of forest landscape change, deer distribution, timber harvest effects on songbird habitat and regeneration, and integrated simulation of forest management balancing regeneration, timber production, and deer populations.

1. http://www.landscapemodelling.net
Landscape Ecology
Modelling & Simulation
Dr. James Millington
Lecturer in Physical and Quantitative Geography

2. Research Background
http://www.landscapemodelling.net

3. Research Interests
Landscape Ecology Modelling & Simulation
http://www.landscapemodelling.net
Succession-
Disturbance
Resource
Management
Agent-Based
Epistemology

4. Landscape Change
 Land Use/Cover Change
http://www.landscapemodelling.net
Millington et al. (2007)

5. Landscape Change
 Land Use/Cover Change
 Agricultural decision-making Agent-Based
Model (ABM)
http://www.landscapemodelling.net
Millington et al. (2008)

6. Landscape Change
 Land Use/Cover Change
 Agricultural decision-making ABM
 Landscape succession-disturbance (LFSM)
http://www.landscapemodelling.net
Millington et al. (2009)

7. Succession-Disturbance
http://www.landscapemodelling.net

8. Succession-Disturbance
Movie
http://www.landscapemodelling.net

9. Succession-Disturbance
http://www.landscapemodelling.net

10. Ongoing Modelling
 Model assessment
 Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses
 Pattern-oriented modelling
 Updating model to
better represent
climate and soil
moisture
http://www.landscapemodelling.net

11. Ongoing Modelling
Carrion et al. 2010
http://www.landscapemodelling.net

12. Resource Management
 Wildlife and timber management
Timber Deer
© L.S. Johnson
Birds
http://www.landscapemodelling.net

13. Selection Timber Harvest
Shade-tolerant species
regenerate in understory
Intends to mimic gap-
phase dynamics
http://www.landscapemodelling.net

14. Variation in Gap Regeneration
http://www.landscapemodelling.net

15. Simulation Model
USFS Forest
Vegetation Simulator
MSU Regeneration Model
7.0m
TreeHeight
Deer
Herbivory
Landscape Forest Structure
Forest Valuation
Timber
Harvest
(light & seed
availability)
Site Quality
(soil resources, competition)
http://www.landscapemodelling.net

16. Deer Distribution
http://www.landscapemodelling.net

17. Winter Deer Habitat
Juxtaposition of
northern
hardwood and
lowland conifer
stands
Provides winter
food and
thermal cover in
close proximity
Lowland
Conifer
Aspen
Northern
Hardwood
Other
0 1km
http://www.landscapemodelling.net

18. Deer Distribution Regression
Deer Density = f(DLC, DBH)
Bayesian Model Averaging to select this ‘best’ model
http://www.landscapemodelling.net

19. Deer Distribution Example
Deer Density – Original
Low
High
deer/km2
Lowland
Conifer
0 1km
http://www.landscapemodelling.net

20. Deer Distribution Example
Deer Density – Conifer Removal
Lowland
Conifer
0 1km
Low
High
deer/km2
http://www.landscapemodelling.net

21. Simulation Model
USFS Forest
Vegetation Simulator
MSU Regeneration Model
7.0m
TreeHeight
Deer
Herbivory
Landscape Forest Structure
Forest Valuation
Timber
Harvest
(light & seed
availability)
Site Quality
(soil resources, competition)
http://www.landscapemodelling.net

22. Gap Regeneration Scenarios
100% Regeneration
100 years
10-year timestep
Year
http://www.landscapemodelling.net

23. Gap Regeneration Scenarios
0% Regeneration
100 years
10-year timestep
Year
http://www.landscapemodelling.net

24. Combined effects?
What are the combined effects of
variable regeneration and timber
management on songbirds and
timber production?
http://www.landscapemodelling.net

25. Bird Occupancy Probability
 Occupancy Models (after MacKenzie et al.)
 logit(p) = b0 + b1x1 + … bixi
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.8
1.0
0.6
OccupancyProbability
Least Flycatcher
Black Throated
Green Warbler
0.0 12.5 25.0 37.5 50.0
Canopy Openness (%)
http://www.landscapemodelling.net

26. Bird Occupancy Probability
BTNW EAWP
LEFL RBGR
Canopy Openness (-ve)
SumDiam15m (+ve)
Canopy Height (+ve)
Canopy Height (+ve)
Canopy Openness (+ve)
Basal Area (+ve)
SumDiam20m (+ve)
http://www.landscapemodelling.net

27. Birds vs. Timber vs. Regeneration
http://www.landscapemodelling.net

28. Birds vs. Timber vs. Regeneration
Black-Throated Green Warbler
http://www.landscapemodelling.net

29. Integrated Simulation
 Integrated forest management
 Integrated simulation model: regeneration,
timber and deer
Millington et al. (2013)
http://www.landscapemodelling.net

30. Ongoing Modelling
 Spatial-temporal co-ordination of timber and
wildlife management
 Impact of variable snow at regional scale
http://www.landscapemodelling.net

31. Transferable Methods!
 Statistical models
 Logistic regression modelling
 Categorical or probabilistic dependent variable
 Land cover, species abundance
 Risk models, Forecast models
 Multi-model inference
 Evaluating evidence for different combinations of
variables
http://www.landscapemodelling.net

32. Transferable Methods!
 Simulation approaches
 For dispersal, diffusion, random walk processes
 Cellular Automata & GIS modelling
 Grid models with specified rules of change
 Risk mapping and change
 Individual- or Agent-based modelling
 For representing discrete entities
 Human activity, animal distribution, plant migration
http://www.landscapemodelling.net