Luis Valdivieso - inPERU

515 views

Published on

inPERU London roadshow 2012

0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total views
515
On SlideShare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
4
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
3
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide

Luis Valdivieso - inPERU

  1. 1. PERÚOne of the Most Attractive Investment DestinationsLuis M. ValdiviesoPresident of the Private Pension Fund Administrators Asociation (AAFP)Director inPERÚLondon, April 2012
  2. 2. I. What makes Peru attractive for investment?II. Market perception and the investors’ response tosuch investment environmentIII. Areas in need of improvementIV. Risks and mitigating factors2
  3. 3. I. What makes Peru attractive for investment?3
  4. 4. 84.0%54.0% 48.5% 45.5%22.8%0.00.51.01.52.02.5TurkmenistanAngolaMyanmarBhutanEthiopiaIndiaCambodiaKazakhstanMozambiqueLaoPeoplesDemocraticRepublicBelarusVietnamPanamaGhanaPeruSãoToméandPríncipeBangladeshJordanSudanZambiaArgentinaDominicanRepublicMalawiTrinidadandTobagoMoldovaMalaysiaNigerAlbaniaPhilippinesPakistanSurinameNamibiaRussiaMoroccoTaiwanProvinceofChinaEcuadorTheGambiaColombiaBotswanaLithuaniaKenyaPolandKoreaDjiboutiChileKosovoSyrianArabRepublicUkraineBrazilAlgeriaNepalBelizeRepublicofYemenLesothoMontenegroGuatemalaSerbiaFormerYugoslavRepublicofMacedoniaLuxembourgAntiguaandBarbudaNicaraguaGuyanaSamoaSloveniaGuineaSeychellesCyprusSwedenSt.KittsandNevisMadagascarMexicoFinlandIrelandElSalvadorDominicaSpainHungaryBarbadosNorwayGreeceCentralAfricanRepublicNetherlandsUnitedKingdomGermanyHaitiJamaicaJapanCôtedIvoireItaly1. Peru has recorded one of the strongest growth performances in the lastdecadeCumulative GDP Growth 2002-2011 (in percent)Source: Word Economic Outlook Set. 2011The year 2012 is a proyection 4Per Capita GDP Growth*(Number of times)2011/1980 2011/1990 2011/20001 Chile 5.72 Chile 3.36 Peru 1.972 Uruguay 4.51 Argentina 3.10 Uruguay 1.903 Colombia 4.16 Peru 3.08 Argentina 1.894 Argentina 3.58 Uruguay 2.92 Ecuador 1.765 Peru 3.37 Colombia 2.36 Colombia 1.736 Ecuador 3.23 Ecuador 2.26 Chile 1.707 Brazil 3.16 Brazil 2.22 Paraguay 1.668 Mexico 3.04 Bolivia 2.14 Brazil 1.649 Paraguay 2.89 Mexico 2.06 Bolivia 1.5610 Bolivia 2.51 Paraguay 1.87 Venezuela 1.4511 Venezuela 2.25 Venezuela 1.77 Mexico 1.39*Based on Purchasing Power Parity. Current per capita GDP is compared to 1980, 1990 and 2000.5.84.94.5 4.3 4.2 4.0 4.03.7 3.6 3.41.9PeruArgentinaEcuadorParaguayColombiaChileBoliviaUruguayBrazilVenezuelaMexicoLatin American: Average GDP Growth 2001-2011(Real % Change)Source: WEO-IMF, Sep-2011
  5. 5. Growth has been driven by rising investment and labor productivity andsupportive investors and consumers’ confidence1.2 1.23.51.60.52.31.50.50.9 0.9-0.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.0Peru Colombia Chile Brazil Mexico1995-19992000-20095Optimist TrendPesimist TrendConsumer Confidence IndexFamily Economic SituationInvestment Expectations 6 monthsInvestment risesInvestment fallsSource: Central Bank of PerúSource: Central Bank of PerúInversión Bruta Fija: 2004-2011(En porcentaje del PBI)Source: Central Bank of Perú, Ministry of Economy and Finance2.8 2.9 3.1 3.4 4.3 5.2 5.9 4.515.1 15.5 16.418.221.5 17.719.219.60510152025302004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011Private Investment Public Investment
  6. 6. 2. Peru’s growth potential is very promisingCountries that will grow on average above 6 per cent per annum in 2012-2013Source: IMF – WEO 2011, except for Peru which is based on official government projections base.6
  7. 7. ____________________Source: MEF, BCRP, MINEN, and media7…total investment is expected to reach new highs, with very auspicious privateinvestment plans for 2011-20162.8 2.9 3.1 3.4 4.3 5.2 5.9 4.5 5.8 5.815.1 15.5 16.418.221.517.719.219.619.9 20.30510152025302004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013Gross National Investment: 2004-2013(% GDP)Private Investment Public InvestmentSource: Central Bank of Perú, Ministry
  8. 8. 3. Peru has recorded the lowest inflation in LA in the last decadeand is expected to keep it well under control823.410.99.0 7.9 6.6 5.6 5.2 5.1 4.4 3.2 2.50510152025VenezuelaArgentinaUruguayParaguayBrazilBoliviaEcuadorColombiaMexicoChilePeruConsumer Prices Inflation(Average annual rate 2001-2011)Source: WEO Database - IMFAnnual percentage of average consumer prices are year-on-year changes-5.00.05.010.015.020.025.030.035.040.045.0Argentina Bolivia Brazil Chile Colombia Peru
  9. 9. Source: BCRP4. Peru’s current account is sustained by sizable long-term private capital inflows, but itstrade account is sensitive to commodity price volatility and changes in external demand-4.0-2.00.02.04.06.08.010.02003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 (*) 2013 (*)-1.50.01.43.11.1-3.70.2-1.7-1.3 -1.5 -1.83.00 3.304.104.509.107.506.057.996.454.745.59Current Account Balance and Long Term Private Financing:2003 – 2013 (% of GDP)Trade Balance and Terms of Trade (US$ billions and index 1994=100)0.93.05.39.08.52.66.06.79.3 9.1 10.00204060801001201401600.02.04.06.08.010.012.02003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 (*) 2013 (*)9
  10. 10. To control the impact of price volatility on the exchange market, the Central Bank hasintervened occasionally without countering underlying market forces8090100110120130140150-07-08r-08-08-08t-08-08-09r-09-09-09t-09-09-10r-10-10-10t-10-10Exchange Rate Index(December 2007=100)Brasil Chile Peru Colombia Mexico12/07 2/12
  11. 11. Net International Reserves and Foreign Exchange Position(US$ billion)11NIR/Short-term external debt 6.5NIR/ Liquidity (%) 92.9NIR / GDP (%) 30.313 14 9 1029NIR / GDP: 2010 (in %)4.61.02.3 2.95.6NIR / Short–term external debt: 2010 (Number of times)In the process, Peru has built a very strong external position, enhancingits ability to confront external shocks
  12. 12. 12Overall Balance of the Non-Financial Public Sector(In percent of GDP)-3.0-2.0-1.00.01.02.03.04.02002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013-2.3-1.7-1.1-0.32.23.12.1-1.9-0.31.0 1.11.4SurplusDeficit44.337.73329.724.127.123.4 21.7 19.9 18.336.130.124.117.812.5 14.211.58.26.14.12004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012* 2013*Gross Debt Net Debt*Forecast5. Peru has demonstrated its commitment to fiscal discipline and aprudent public debt managementPublic Sector Debt (% of GDP)
  13. 13. Brazil Chile Colombia Mexico Peru64.9810.4935.9242.9021.52General Government Gross Debt (%GDP) - 201164.98110.4935.91842.89721.51801020304050607080902000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011%General Government Gross Debt (% GDP) - 2011Brazil Chile Colombia Mexico PeruDebt indicators are quite favorable
  14. 14. 6. The Central bank has kept inflation under control through timely actions,while supporting economic activity1,01,52,02,53,03,54,04,55,05,56,06,57,01,01,52,02,53,03,54,04,55,05,56,06,57,0ene-06mar-06may-06jul-06sep-06nov-06ene-07mar-07may-07jul-07sep-07nov-07ene-08mar-08may-08jul-08sep-08nov-08ene-09mar-09may-09jul-09sep-09nov-09ene-10mar-10may-10jul-10sep-10nov-10ene-11mar-11may-11jul-11sep-11nov-11ene-12Tasa de interés de referencia del Banco Central(En porcentaje)4,2514,125,00005101520253035Ene-06May-06Sep-06Ene-07May-07Sep-07Ene-08May-08Sep-08Ene-09May-09Sep-09Ene-10May-10Sep-10Ene-11May-11Sep-11Ene-12Tasa de encaje en moneda nacional(Como % de las obligaciones sujetas al encaje)Medio ExigibleMarginal%38,255,0202530354045505560Ene-06Abr-06Jul-06Oct-06Ene-07Abr-07Jul-07Oct-07Ene-08Abr-08Jul-08Oct-08Ene-09Abr-09Jul-09Oct-09Ene-10Abr-10Jul-10Oct-10Ene-11Abr-11Jul-11Oct-11Ene-12Tasa de encaje en moneda extranjera(Como % de las obligaciones sujetas al encaje)Medio ExigibleMarginal%Central Bank policy rate (%)Reserve Requirement Ratio: Domestic Currency(% of liabilities subject to reserves)Reserve Requirement Ratio: Foreign Currency(% of liabilities subject to reserves)AverageMarginalAverageMarginal
  15. 15. …credit to the private sector has increased steadily in real terms90951001051101151201251301351403Q-08 1Q-09 3Q-09 1Q-10 3Q-10Credit to the private sector(2008.Q3=100)Brazil ColombiaPeru 1/ Chile 2/1/ In Peru includes loans made by banks branchesCRÉDITOALSECTORPRIVADOTasasdevariaciónanualfeb-2011 mar-2011 abr-2011 may-2011 jun-2011 jul-2011 ago-2011 sep-2011 oct-2011 nov-2011 dic-2011 ene-2012 feb-201211,613,414,916,2 17,2 17,319,4 20,2 19,9 21,0 20,9 20,8 21,2 22,0 22,5 21,7 20,6 21,5 20,4 19,6 19,0 19,0 19,1 18,0mar10abr10may10jun10 jul10 ago10sep10oct10nov10 dic10 ene11feb11mar11abr11may11jun11 jul11 ago11sep11oct11nov11 dic11 ene12feb12Growth in Credit to the Private Sector (inpercent)
  16. 16. Credit Cards per capita (1)7. Peru’s banking system is still small compared to other Latin AmericancountriesBanking Depth at retail level(Mortgage and Consumption loans/GDP)0.000.200.400.600.801.001.201.401.60BRASIL ARGENTINA CHILE MÉXICO PERÚ1.521.150.630.480.35Bank offices per 100,000 persons16Sources: SBS - PERÚ: indicadores de inclusión financiera de los sistemas financiero, de seguros y de pensionesSources: FELEBAN – Boletín Económico a Diciembre 2010 Sources: SBS - II Congreso latinoamericano de educación financieraBanking Depth (Deposits/GDP in %)
  17. 17. 17Non Performing Loans in % of Total LoansSource: SBS y BCRP.…but it is quite sound, progressively becoming less dollarized, and it is very wellregulated and supervised73 74 77 79 82 80 79 77 74 71 67 60 57 52 46 441995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010Dolarization of credit to the private sector(%)Dollarization of Credit to the Private Sector and Liquidity (in percent)CredirLiquidity-0.51.01.52.02.53.0-5.010.015.020.025.030.035.0dic-94jun-95dic-95jun-96dic-96jun-97dic-97jun-98dic-98jun-99dic-99jun-00dic-00jun-01dic-01jun-02dic-02jun-03dic-03jun-04dic-04jun-05dic-05jun-06dic-06jun-07dic-07jun-08dic-08jun-09dic-09jun-10dic-10jun-11dic-11Profitability IndicatorsReturn on Equity Return on Assets1.470246810122000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
  18. 18. 05,00010,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,00040,00045,00002/01/200702/02/200702/03/200702/04/200702/05/200702/06/200702/07/200702/08/200702/09/200702/10/200702/11/200702/12/200702/01/200802/02/200802/03/200802/04/200802/05/200802/06/200802/07/200802/08/200802/09/200802/10/200802/11/200802/12/200802/01/200902/02/200902/03/200902/04/200902/05/200902/06/200902/07/200902/08/200902/09/200902/10/200902/11/200902/12/200902/01/201002/02/201002/03/201002/04/201002/05/201002/06/201002/07/201002/08/201002/09/201002/10/201002/11/201002/12/201002/01/201102/02/201102/03/201102/04/201102/05/201102/06/201102/07/201102/08/201102/09/201102/10/201102/11/201102/12/201102/01/201202/02/201202/03/201202/04/2012IGBVLISBVLFuente: Superintendencia de Mercado de Valores – Series Estadísticas025,000,000,00050,000,000,00075,000,000,000100,000,000,000125,000,000,000150,000,000,000175,000,000,000200,000,000,000225,000,000,000250,000,000,000275,000,000,000300,000,000,000325,000,000,000350,000,000,000375,000,000,000400,000,000,000ene-02mar-02may-02jul-02sep-02nov-02ene-03mar-03may-03jul-03sep-03nov-03ene-04mar-04may-04jul-04sep-04nov-04ene-05mar-05may-05jul-05sep-05nov-05ene-06mar-06may-06jul-06sep-06nov-06ene-07mar-07may-07jul-07sep-07nov-07ene-08mar-08may-08jul-08sep-08nov-08ene-09mar-09may-09jul-09sep-09nov-09ene-10mar-10Capitalización BursátilCapitalization (in Nuevos Soles)General (IGBVL) and Selected (ISBVL) Indices of the Lima Stock Exchange8. Peru’s capital market is developing rapidly
  19. 19. EFTANew ZealandSouth AfricaECA PlusExisting FTA agreementsPlanned FTA negotiationsMexico: ECA 8A P E CW T OsingaporeEuropeanUnionKoreaJapanAustraliaCentralAmericaCARICOMIndiaMoroccoRussiaRussiaChinaThailandChinaChile: ECA 38United StatesCanadaMERCOSUR ECA 58AndeanCommunity9. Peru has a very open economyCHILECANADAUSAANDEANCOMMUNITY MERCOSURCHINAEUROPEANUNIONEFTAKOREATHAILANDMEXICOPANAMA, COSTA RICA,EL SALVADOR &HONDURASNEW ZELANDAUSTRALIAMALAYSIA/BRUNEIJAPANVIETNAMSOUTH AFRICAINDIARUSSIATURKEYMOROCCOVENEZUELANegotiated FTA agreementsCurrent or recently concluded FTA negotiationsWTOAPECPERU19
  20. 20.  Australia China* Korea Malaysia Singapore* Thailand Japan  Argentina Bolivia Chile* Colombia Ecuador Paraguay Venezuela Cuba El Salvador Germany Belgium and Luxembourg Denmark Spain Finland France Netherlands Italy Norway Portugal United Kingdom Czech Republic Romania Sweden Switzerland Canada* United States*… open trade policy has been complemented with investmentagreements It also has existing agreements to avoid double taxation with Brazil, Chile andCanada and has scheduled negotiations with 14 countries.* FTA
  21. 21. 10. Peru has a stable and predictable legal framework forinvestmentThe State guarantees:Non discriminatory treatment between national and foreign investorsUnrestricted access to most economic sectorsFree transfer of capital and free access to the most favorable exchange rate available in the marketFree competitionConstitutional Guarantees for Private PropertyFreedom to purchase stocks from localsFreedom to access internal and foreign creditFreedom to pay and remit royalties and dividendsThe State also extends stability agreements 1/ on:The income tax rules applicable to dividends.The right of recruitment regimes.The regimes for the promotion of exports.The Income Tax Regime,The State also offers a special regime on the value added tax, which allows for a taxreimbursement during the pre=production stage of the project (minimum 2-year term).Peru is adherent to the OECD Declaration on International Investment and MultinationalEnterprises and a member of the ICSID and MIGASource:s: Constitutional provisions, “Law for the Promotion of Foreign Investment”, Legislative Decree N° 662, “Framework Law for Private Investment Growth”,Legislative Decree N° 757, “Law for the Promotion of Private Investment in Infrastructure and Public Service Works”, Approved by Supreme Decree N° 059-96-PCM1/ For FDI of at least US$ 5 MM in any economic sectors, except for hydrocarbon and mining sectors where the minimum is US$10 MM.21
  22. 22. II. Market perceptions and investors’ response22
  23. 23. Rating agencies granted an investment grade to Peru in 2008Source: Bloomberg, March 2012PAIS S&P FITCH MOODYSChile A+ A+ Aa3México BBB BBB Baa1Brasil BBB BBB Baa2Perú BBB BBB Baa3Colombia BBB- BBB- Baa3Bolivia B+ B+ B1Venezuela B+ B+ B2Argentina Bu B B3Ecuador B- B- Caa223
  24. 24. Various surveys indicate that Peru is perceived as oneamong the best countries in the region for investment5.75.75.85.85.85.96.16.16.26.26.26.46.56.66.7SwedenBahrainKorea,RepIsraelSlovak RepublicCanadaJapanChilePanamaPhilipphinesChinaSingaporeMalaysaThailandPeruAggregate macroprudential indicator**This is the aggregate measure of macroeconomic soundnessbased on real GDP growth, deposit interest rate, inflationvolatility, and inflation levelSource: WEF - Financial Development Report 2011Rank1234567891011121314153.13.24.04.14.24.24.54.64.85.55.65.8ArgentinaVenezuelaGuatemalaMexicoBrazilDominic. Rep.BoliviaEl SalvadorUruguayChileColombiaPeruGovernment Readiness for privateinvestment in infraestructureSource: WEF - Fi El Benchmarking National Attractiveness for PrivateInvestment in Latin american infraestructure 2007123456789101112Rank24Perú18%Uruguay, 2%Argentina8%Brasil,41%Chile13%Colombia14%México,2%Paraguay1%Otros1%Source: PWC 2010. (200 CEOs in LA survey)
  25. 25. 25PERU: Ranking on the ease of doing business 2006-2011Ranking improvement 2006-2011010203040506070802006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012786553654639 41-30-20-100102030403734189-4-15-200 20 40 60 80 100 120Enforcing ContractsResolving InsolvencyGetting ElectricityStarting a BusinessGetting CreditProtecting Investors1111011008582565541242217020406080100120140160Peru Chile Mexico Brazil ColombiaPeru has been escalating rapidly the ranks of the Doing Business Survey
  26. 26. The market for long-term sovereign bond has also been signaling aperceived lower country risk12.312.95.66.87.88.2 8.3 8.33.554.24.645.455.96 6.21 6.28 6.4601234567891011121314155 10 15 20 25 30 35 40Yield(%)Time to maturity (years)Peruvian Tresasury Bonds Yield CurveJun 2001May 2006Feb 201226
  27. 27. Source: PROINVERSIÓNFDIS STOCK IN PERU(US$ million)FDIS STOCK PER COUNTRY (%()…it is therefore not surprising that Peru keeps attracting large FDI inflows2705,00010,00015,00020,00025,0002000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011MINERÍA26%FINANZAS20%COMUNICACIONES18%INDUSTRIA15%ENERGÍA14%COMERCIO4%OTROS3%FDIS STOCK BY SECTORESPAÑA20%REINO UNIDO20%EE.UU.14%PAÍSES BAJOS7%CHILE6%COLOMBIA5%BRASIL5%OTROS23%
  28. 28. Several multinational companies are nowoperating in Peru Shougang Corp Sapet Marubeni Honda SK LS Nikko Sumitomo Matsushita P&O Dover China Fishery Group Chinalco Zijin Mining Nippon Mining Mitsui Mining Teck Cominco Quebecor Barrick Scotiabank Firth Ind. Newcrest BHP Chariot Amcor Downing Teal Orica Rio Tinto Grupo Slim Grupo Mexico Grupo Bimbo Zeta Gas Minas Peñoles Banco Azteca Elektra Café Britt Techint Pluspetrol Odebrecht Petrobras AmBev Gerdau Votorantim Vale Grupo ISA Falabella Ripley CENCOSUD ENAP LAN• Hunt Oil• Nextel• Citibank• Phelps Dodge• Duke Energy• Freeport McMoRan• Procter & Gamble• Kimberly Clark• Coca Cola Comp.• Chevron Corp.• Cargill• Kraft• Sempra• PSEG• Newmont• Doe Run• Telefónica• BBVA• Endesa• Repsol - YPF• HSBC• Flughafen Frankfurt• Suez Group• Xstrata• Acea /Impregilo• Messer• Faber Castell• Deutsche Bank• Grupo Santander• Grupo Fierro• Ashmore• SN Power• Elecnor / Isolux• Polysius• OHL• Orient Express• Cimpor Anglo American Sonatrach Gold Fields Sab Miller28
  29. 29. Large public projects have been granted in concession overthe last decade (US$10.3 billion)____________________Source: PROINVERSION14 Concessions in Road Transportation Sector(2002 – 2011)US$ 2,360.9 MM ininvestment commitments19 Concessions in Energy Sector (1998 – 2011)6 Concessions in Port Sector (1999 – 2011)3 Concessions in Airport Sector (1999 – 2011)US$ 4,597.3 MM ininvestment commitmentsUS$ 1,743.5 MM ininvestment commitmentsUS$ 1,622.6 MM ininvestment commitments29
  30. 30. III. Areas in need of improvement30
  31. 31. There is certainly no room for complacencyPERU:Fuente: World Economic Forum, The Global CompetitivenessReport 2011-2012InnovationHealth and primary educationInstitutionsInfrastructureHigher education and trainingTechnological readinessBusiness sophisticationMacroeconomic environmentGoods market efficiencyMarket sizeLabor market efficiencyFinancial market developmentBottom of scale top of scale384348505265697788959711331
  32. 32. The need is particularly significant in infrastructureSource: World Economic Forum, The Global Competitiveness Report 2010-2011.32
  33. 33. IV Risks and mitigating factors33
  34. 34. External RisksDownside• Weaker and more protracted than anticipated global recovery• Lower commodity prices• Sustained sharp increase in food an oil prices• Higher volatility of capital inflows and reversal of in risk appetite• Intensification of drug trafficking and associated violenceUpside• Stronger, faster and more sustained than anticipated global recovery• More favorable than expected terms of trade• Higher inflows of FDIMitigating factors: strong NIR position, low external debt, flexible exchangerate, and ample room for fiscal and monetary maneuver34
  35. 35. Domestic Risks: Tilted to the UpsideUpside Risks• Stronger than expected recovery of net exports• Higher than anticipated private investment, especially intoPPP for infrastructure• Continuation of the economic and social modelDownside risks• Reversal of social development weakening social cohesionin support of sustained growth• Political risk35
  36. 36. Social RiskSustained growth and poverty reduction are key in in mitigating social riskURBAN EMPLOYMENT (% change)URBAN EMPLOYMENT IN LATIN AMERICA(% of population in working age)42.7 42.447.548.454.8 54.352.248.6 48.744.539.336.234.830.48090100110120130140150160170303540455055601997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010Pobreza PBI pér capitaPOBREZA Y PBI PER CAPITAPOVERTY (% of population)- - - GDP PER CAPITA (2003=100)-1.90.01.72.74.57.28.3 8.31.34.25.42001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011-1-1-50PeruBrazilEcuadorChileLatin AmericaDom. Rep.HondurasGuatemalaPanamaParaguayColombiaCosta RicaMexicoLatin America: Poverty Reduction 2005 -2009(Change in percentage points)36010203040506070Argentinab/BrasilChileb/Colombiab/CostaRicac/Ecuadorb/Jamaicad/MexicoPanamáe/Paraguayb/Perúb/Rep.Dominicanaf/UruguayVenezuela(Rep.Bol.de)54.4 53.1 53.257 56.45354.9 56.459.1 57.964.54758.9 59.155.2 53.6 55.558.4 57.851.654.556.659.857.564.44860 58.92010
  37. 37. 55.6 55.250.351.1 50.951.749.0 49.148.12002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010GINI INDEX - PERUSource: World Bank IndicatorsLATIN AMERICA (18 COUNTRIES): GINI INDEX1990-2002, 2002-2008 AND 2008-20101990-2002 2002-2008 2008-2010Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of specialtabulations of data from household surveys conducted in the respective countries.37Social Risk…the same goes for ensuring that income growth is equally distributed
  38. 38. Source: INEI, MINTRASocial RiskIt is encouraing that income growth in Peru has been more pro-poor and decentralized, and as a result,there is a rapidly growing emerging middle class0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000Quintil 1Quintil 2NacionalQuintil 3Quintil 4Quintil 5201020055.137.348.949.754.474.10 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000SierraSelvaCostaNacionalLima M.2010200538.148.947.585.259.8Average Monthly Income by Household(Current Nuevos Soles)By RegionBy Quintile38
  39. 39. 3954.4 54.848.744.539.336.2 34.830.927.323.0 24.417.4 16.1 13.7 12.6 11.5 9.8 11.50.010.020.030.040.050.060.01991 2001 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Goal2015Erradication of Extreme Poverty and HungerTotal Poverty (% of Population with less than 2 US$)Extreme Poverty (% of Population with less than 1 US$)Net Rate of Primary Education Enrollment (%)Literacy Rate (% of population between 15-24years old)Promote Gender Equality and Womens Autonomy1.000.99 0.980.99 1.000.991.00 1.001.010.991.000.991.011.001.011.000.971.02 1.021.04 1.041.101.121.000.8500.9000.9501.0001.0501.1001.1502004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Goal 2015Primary Education (ratio of girls to boys attendance)Seconadry Education (ratio of girls to boys attendance)94.594.796.296.7 96.696.896.51002004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Goal 201594.094.395.3 95.395.696.296.61002004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Goal 2015Social RiskProgress achieved in addressing basic development needs hasalso helped as a mitigating factor
  40. 40. 43.033.021.0 21.0 21.0 19.0 19.0 20.0 17.0 17.059.047.029.0 29.0 29.0 27.0 27.0 26.0 23.0 23.00.020.040.060.080.0Base 1996 2000 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Goal 2015Infant Mortality Rate Infant Mortality Rate (more than 5 years)Reduction of Mortality in Infants below 5 years old4066.0 63.0 59.248.6 45.5 40.029.3 26.720.40.020.040.060.080.0100.02002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010PROPORTION OF RURAL POPULATION THAT USE SOLID COMBUSTIBLES LIKE CHARCOAL ORWOOD TO COOK THEIR FOOD (PERCENTAGES)(2002-2009)Social Risk…a widespread set of social and environmental issues has beenaddressed
  41. 41. Political RiskMarkets price in politically driven uncertainty relatively quickly41As of March 15,2012Source Bloomberg, IPECabinet change Dec. 11, 2011Uncertainty duringelection periodPolitical risk mitigating factors:March-July 2011: Announcement of a new government program by President Ollanta´s partyDec 2011: Renewal of cabinet members was well received
  42. 42. Thank You42

×