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O U T L O O K
ONTHLY
MARKET
SEPTEMBER 2023
Global Indices Performance
2
• China markets declined due to
continued weak macros and
falling global demand for Chinese
goods
• US, UK & other major Eurozone
economies reported slowdown in
economic activity which further
stoked bearish sentiments
Germany - DAX Index; China - SSE Composite Index; France - CAC 40 Index; Japan - Nikkei; Eurozone - Euronext 100; Hong Kong - HangSeng; US - Dow Jones; Singapore - Strait Times;
Russia - RTS Index; Indonesia - Jakarta Composite Index; U.K. - FTSE; South Korea - Kospi; Brazil - Ibovespa Sao Paulo Index; Indonesia – Jakarta Composite Index; Switzerland – Swiss
Market Index; Taiwan – Taiwan Stock Exchange Corporation; India – S&P BSE Sensex; Data Source: MFI. Returns are absolute returns for the index calculated between July 31, 2023-
August 31, 2023. Past performance may or may not sustain in future. MFI Explorer is a tool provided by ICRA Online Ltd. For their standard disclaimer please visit
http://www.icraonline.com/legal/standard-disclaimer.html.
-8%
-5% -5%
-4%
-3% -3% -3% -3% -3% -3% -2% -2% -2% -2%
0.2% 0.3%
-11%
-9%
-7%
-5%
-3%
-1%
1%
3%
5%
Hong
Kong
China
Brazil
Singapore
UK
Eurozone
Germany
Taiwan
South
Korea
India
France
US
Japan
Switzerland
Russia
Indonesia
Absolute Returns – August 2023
India – Sectoral Indices Performance
3
All indices are of S&P BSE and carry the prefix of S&P BSE; Abbreviated CD - S&P BSE Consumer Durables; CG - S&P BSE Capital Goods; FMCG - S&P BSE Fast Moving Consumer Goods;
HC - S&P BSE Health Care; Infra. - S&P BSE India Infrastructure; IT - S&P BSE Information Technology, Govt: Government, RBI: Reserve Bank of India. Data Source: MFI, BSE ; Returns are
absolute returns for the TRI variant of the index (except Infrastructure Index) calculated between July 31, 2023- August 31, 2023. Past performance may or may not sustain in future. The
sector(s)/stock(s) mentioned in this slide do not constitute any recommendation and ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund may or may not have any future position in this sector(s)/stock(s). MFI
Explorer is a tool provided by ICRA Online Ltd. For their standard disclaimer please visit http://www.icraonline.com/legal/standard-disclaimer.html.
• Energy stocks shed points due to
intermittent fall in global oil
prices & gas subsidy provided by
Govt.
• Banks ended lower following
RBI’s Incremental Cash Reserve
Ratio requirement
• Tech companies rallied on the
back of earnings surprise and
positive global cues
-5%
-4% -4%
-3% -2%
-1% -1% -1%
0%
1%
2%
3% 3%
4% 4%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
Oil
&
Gas
Energy
Bankex
FMCG
Financials
Realty
Metal
Auto
Power
HC
Infra
CG
Telecom
IT
CD
Absolute Returns – August 2023
Global Mega Trends
Japan’s Inflation Sea Change
5
Data as of July 31, 2023. Source: Bank of Japan. CPI – Consumer Price Index, y/y – Year on Year. Trimmed Mean – A method of averaging that removes the largest and
smallest values/outliers before calculating the mean.
After decades of deflation, Japan is finally witnessing rising inflation.
This is a welcome change for any economy as it spurs growth
3.3
-1.5
-0.5
0.5
1.5
2.5
3.5
Jul-01
Jul-03
Jul-05
Jul-07
Jul-09
Jul-11
Jul-13
Jul-15
Jul-17
Jul-19
Jul-21
Jul-23
Trimmed Mean CPI (y/y % change)
Average: 0.2
MSCI World Index & Central Bank Balance Sheets –
A Parallel Play
6
Data as Aug 21, 2023. Source – JP Morgan. Fed: Federal Reserve System of US, ECB: European Central Bank, BoJ: Bank of Japan, PBoC: People’s Bank of China. Past
performance may or may not sustain in future.
Historically, MSCI World Index has moved in tandem with major Central Bank Balance Sheets.
While the latter is now falling, markets are yet to realize this
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
Jan-09
Aug-09
Mar-10
Oct-10
May-11
Dec-11
Jul-12
Feb-13
Sep-13
Apr-14
Nov-14
Jun-15
Jan-16
Aug-16
Mar-17
Oct-17
May-18
Dec-18
Jul-19
Feb-20
Sep-20
Apr-21
Nov-21
Jun-22
Jan-23
Aug-23
MSCI
World
Index
Bank
Balance
Sheets
($
Bn)
MSCI World Index V/s Global Central Bank
Central Bank Balance Sheet (FED, ECB, BoJ, PBoC, $bn) MSCI World Index
Central Banks have started
shrinking due to monetary policy
tightening.
But markets continue to hold-up
MSCI EM Index –
India bee-lining towards second spot
7
Data as Aug 31, 2023. Source – Morgan Stanley Research. Past performance may or may not sustain in future.
India’s share in MSCI Emerging Markets (EM) Index is rising and shares the second spot with Taiwan
15%
39%
30%
15%
0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
Dec-13
Sep-14
May-15
Jan-16
Oct-16
Jun-17
Feb-18
Oct-18
Jul-19
Mar-20
Nov-20
Aug-21
Apr-22
Dec-22
Aug-23
Weight in MSCI Emerging Market Index
India China Taiwan Russia
The big becomes bigger!
8
Source: Edelweiss Research, Investopedia (https://www.investopedia.com/top-10-s-and-p-500-stocks-by-index-weight-4843111). Data as of August 31, 2023. Past
Performance may or may not sustain in the future. CYTD – Current Year Till Date. Past performance may or may not sustain in future. The sector(s)/stock(s) mentioned in
this slide do not constitute any recommendation and ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund may or may not have any future position in this sector(s)/stock(s).
The top 5 companies in S&P 500 Index represent ~22% of the total Index Marketcap
14%
22%
10%
15%
20%
25%
CY2000
CY2001
CY2002
CY2003
CY2004
CY2005
CY2006
CY2007
CY2008
CY2009
CY2010
CY2011
CY2012
CY2013
CY2014
CY2015
CY2016
CY2017
CY2018
CY2019
CY2020
CYTD
2023
Top 5 companies as a % of S&P 500 Index Marketcap
2023 – Apple, Microsoft,
Amazon, Nvidia, Alphabet
2000 - GE, Exxon Mobil,
Pfizer, Cisco, Citigroup
US – Mounting National Debt
9
Data Source: DAM Capital & www.apolloacademy.com/daily-us-government-interest-payments/. For US Debt to GDP Ratio: Data as on Jan 01,2023. For Interest
Payment: Data as of Feb 28, 2023. Past performance may or may not sustain in future. GDP: Gross Domestic Product, Bn: Billion, US: United States.
US Debt to GDP Levels are on the steady rise which has resulted into ballooning interest payments
0.5
0.8
1.1
1.4
1.7
2.0
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Net Interest Expense per day on Public Debt ($ Bn)
53
122
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Jan-01
Jan-03
Jan-05
Jan-07
Jan-09
Jan-11
Jan-13
Jan-15
Jan-17
Jan-19
Jan-21
US Debt to GDP Ratio (%)
Jan-23
US Valuations outpacing India
10
Source – DAM Capital, NSE. P/E – Price to Earnings. Data as of Aug 31, 2023. Past performance may or may not sustain in future.
Nifty 50 Index which was trading at a premium to S&P 500 Index until late last year, has cooled off
and is now trading below its long term average
1.7
1.0
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
Aug-13
Aug-14
Aug-15
Aug-16
Aug-17
Aug-18
Aug-19
Aug-20
Aug-21
Aug-22
Aug-23
Nifty 50 P/E to S&P 500 P/E (Premium/Discount)
Average: 1.2
Indian Valuations outpacing EM
11
Source – JP Morgan. P/E – Price to Earnings. EM: Emerging Markets. Data as of Sep 08, 2023. Past performance may or may not sustain in future.
Although relative valuations of India vis-à-vis other emerging markets have cooled off since last year,
India continues to trade at a premium
2.1
1.8
Average: 1.5
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.2
Feb-13
Jun-13
Oct-13
Feb-14
Jun-14
Oct-14
Feb-15
Jun-15
Oct-15
Feb-16
Jun-16
Oct-16
Feb-17
Jun-17
Oct-17
Feb-18
Jun-18
Oct-18
Feb-19
Jun-19
Oct-19
Feb-20
Jun-20
Oct-20
Feb-21
Jun-21
Oct-21
Feb-22
Jun-22
Oct-22
Feb-23
Jun-23
MSCI India P/E – MSCI EM P/E
MSCI India - MSCI EM (12m Forward PE) Long Term Average
Sep-23
Adding more SIX to the ‘BRICS’
12
Data Source: www.newsonair.gov.in UAE – United Arab Emirates. . Map source: mapchart.net.Map not to scale. This map has been used for design and representational purpose
only, it does not depict the geographical boundaries of the country. These do not conform to the external boundaries of India recognized by the Survey of India.
Currently, the five-member grouping is home to 40% of the world’s population contributing 26% of the Global GDP.
But with the new six members (BRICS +6) GDP share will jump to 30% with a share of population of 46%
EXISTING MEMBERS
NEW MEMBERS
BRAZIL RUSSIA INDIA CHINA SOUTH AFRICA
SAUDI ARABIA EGYPT IRAN UAE ETHIOPIA ARGENTINA
India Macro Trends – Deep Dive
Sprint of Indian GDP
14
Data as on August 31,2023 is considered. GDP: Gross Domestic Product, FY: Financial Year, YoY: Year on year. Source –Ministry Of Statistics & Programme Implementation.
Prints of GDP Growth for Q1FY24 came in higher at 7.8% (v/s 6.1 % in last quarter)
GDP C I G X-M
Private Consumption Gross Investment Government Spending Net Exports
% share in GDP 57 35 10 20.9, 27.3
Share in Q1FY24 GDP
% YoY change
5.9 8.0 -0.7 7.7, 10.0
v/s Q1FY23 GDP
Three aspects of GDP
15
GDP: Gross Domestic Product.
Steady growth of GDP is a combined effect of:
02
03
01
01. Govt. actions in force
02. Resilient Business activities
03. Positive Consumer Sentiments
1..2..3… Action: Govt.
16
Data as on July 31,2023. Source: Spark Capital. CY: Calendar Year, Bn: Billion.7M: 7 Months, Capex: Capital Expenditure.
Significant capex spends by Govt. is boosting infrastructure build up in the country
2450
4092
5635
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7M
CY
13
7M
CY
14
7M
CY
15
7M
CY
16
7M
CY
17
7M
CY
18
7M
CY
19
7M
CY
20
7M
CY
21
7M
CY
22
7M
CY
23
Capex (INR Bn)
Average: Rs 2210 Bn
Industry Bifurcation of the Govt’s Capex Spend (INR Bn)
Particulars 7M CY 21 7M CY 22 7M CY 23
Roadways 715 1074 1,583
Railways 965 944 1,321
Defense 832 913 908
Water 148 430 469
Housing 76 111 103
Assessing Business Landscapes
17
Data as on March 31,2023 is considered. Source: RBI (https://www.rbi.org.in/Scripts/PublicationsView.aspx?id=20650) RBI : Reserve Bank of India.
Demand recovery and improving consumer confidence has resulted in
corporate utilizations better than pre-pandemic
76.1
69.1
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
Mar-08
Sep-08
Mar-09
Sep-09
Mar-10
Sep-10
Mar-11
Sep-11
Mar-12
Sep-12
Mar-13
Sep-13
Mar-14
Sep-14
Mar-15
Sep-15
Mar-16
Sep-16
Mar-17
Sep-17
Mar-18
Sep-18
Mar-19
Sep-19
Mar-20
Sep-20
Mar-21
Sep-21
Mar-22
Sep-22
Mar-23
India Manufacturing Capacity Utilization Levels (%)
76.3
30.0
50.0
70.0
90.0
110.0
130.0
Dec-19
Sep-20
Jun-21
Mar-22
Dec-22
Consumer Sentiments
Index of Consumer Sentiments: Rural
Index of Consumer Sentiments: Urban
Jul-23
Monitoring Consumer Sentiments
18
Data as on July 31, 2023 is considered. Source: JP Morgan. Past performance may or may not sustain in future.
Synergies of Government Spending + Pick up in business activity has resulted
in recovery in consumer sentiments
2,573
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
Dec-19
Sep-20
Jun-21
Mar-22
Dec-22
Hiring Trends
Naukri Jobspeak Index Average
Average: 2369
Jul-23
Hiring activity running ahead of pre-covid levels may continue to uplift consumer sentiments in future
Despite slow rural recovery, positive
rural sentiments are leading the race
Looking at near term picture…
Which phase is Indian Equity Market in?
Market goes through Phases…
20
Boom Phase
• Lehman Crisis 2008
• Dot com burst – 2001
Burst Phase
• Equity Markets in 2013-16
• Equity Markets in 2009-11
• Debt Accrual Schemes in 2019
• Equity Markets in 2020
Good Time to Invest
• Equity Markets in 2011 &
2017
• Equity Markets currently
• Real Estate in 2013
• e-Commerce in 2014
• Bitcoin in 2017
• Equity in 2007 & 2000
Bubble Phase
• Equity Markets in 2012
Boring Phase
We are here!
Why are we in a Boom Phase?
21
Indicators Current Status Fit for Boom Phase
Market Returns High
Market Valuations Rising
Sentiments Positive
Earnings Growth High
Production Growth High
Boom Phase: Markets yielding higher returns
22
Markets have rebounded at a faster pace in last 5 months
Source : MFIE. Data as on August 31, 2023. Past performance may or may not sustain in future.
8.4
14.8
23.8
28.4
8.9
(0.6) (0.3)
2.0
(6.9)
0.7
-9
-4
2
7
12
17
22
27
Nifty 50 NIFTY Large Midcap 250 Nifty Midcap 150 Nifty Smallcap 250 S&P BSE Sensex
Market Indices Absolute Returns (%)
1Yr Returns on Aug-23 1Yr Returns on Mar-23
Boom Phase: Valuations on the higher end
23
Equity Market Valuations though have slightly moderated on monthly basis
but continue to trade above long term average
Source : NSE. Data as on August 31, 2023. Past performance may or may not sustain in future. P/E – Price to Earning, P/B – Price to Book.
24
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Jan-00
Jan-03
Jan-06
Jan-09
Jan-12
Jan-15
Jan-18
Jan-21
Nifty 50 P/E
Nifty 50 P/E Average
Average: 21
4.9
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Jan-00
Aug-01
Mar-03
Oct-04
May-06
Dec-07
Jul-09
Feb-11
Sep-12
Apr-14
Nov-15
Jun-17
Jan-19
Aug-20
Mar-22
Nifty 50 P/B
Nifty 50 P/B Average
Average: 4
Aug-23
Aug-23
Boom Phase: Valuations on the higher end
24
India’s valuations cooled off between Sep-22 & Mar-23
Data as on Aug 31,2023. Source : MFIE. MFI Explorer is a tool provided by ICRA Online Ltd. For their standard disclaimer please visit http://www.icraonline.com/legal/standard-
disclaimer.html. Past performance may or may not sustain in future. For indices considered for each country, please refer to slide 2 disclaimers.
29%
27%
22%
18% 18%
16% 15%
11%
8% 8% 8%
4%
3%
-3%
-6%
-7%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
Germany
France
Eurozone
Hong
Kong
Taiwan
US
South
Korea
UK
China
Switzerland
Japan
Singapore
India
Indonesia
Russia
Brazil
Absolute Returns (Sep 30, 2022-Mar 31, 2023)
However, valuations are again on the rise…
16%
14%
10%
6%
5% 4% 3% 2% 2%
0%
0% 0% -1%
-3%
-5%
-10%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
Japan
Brazil
India
Russia
Taiwan
US
South
Korea
Indonesia
Germany
Switzerland
France
Eurozone
Singapore
UK
China
Hong
Kong
Absolute Returns (Mar 31, 2023-August 31, 2023)
Boom Phase: Valuations on the higher end
25
Share of Market Cap – (as a % of Total Market Cap)
Source: NSE. Data as on Aug 31,2023. Past performance may or may not sustain in future. Red indicates high valuations, Amber indicates neutral valuations and Green indicates
attractive valuations
Period Large Cap Mid Cap Small Cap
2003 90.4 7.3 2.3
2004 87.1 9.3 3.6
2005 83.0 11.3 5.6
2006 81.9 11.5 6.7
2007 77.7 13.2 9.1
2008 82.7 10.9 6.4
2009 79.8 12.3 7.9
2010 78.0 12.5 9.4
2011 79.8 12.1 8.1
2012 77.9 13.4 8.7
2013 80.3 12.4 7.2
2014 76.8 14.1 9.1
2015 73.8 15.2 11.0
2016 72.9 15.3 11.8
2017 68.1 17.3 14.6
2018 72.0 16.3 11.7
Dec-19 74.9 15.6 9.5
Dec-20 74.2 15.5 10.2
Dec-21 68.7 16.8 14.5
Dec-22 69.2 16.1 14.7
Mar-23 68.9 16.4 14.6
Jun-23 67.5 16.9 15.6
Aug-23 64.7 17.7 17.6
107.7
50
70
90
110
130
150
170
Aug-05
Aug-06
Aug-07
Aug-08
Aug-09
Aug-10
Aug-11
Aug-12
Aug-13
Aug-14
Aug-15
Aug-16
Aug-17
Aug-18
Aug-19
Aug-20
Aug-21
Aug-22
Aug-23
Aggressively Invest in Equities
Neutral
Incremental Money to Debt
Book Partial Profits
Invest in Equities
Equity Valuation Index
26
Our Equity Valuations Index continues to remain in the neutral zone
Equity Valuation index is calculated by assigning equal weights to Price-to-Earnings (PE), Price-to-Book (PB), G-Sec*PE and Market Cap to GDP ratio and any other factor which the AMC may
add/delete from time to time.. G-Sec – Government Securities. GDP – Gross Domestic Product, Data as on August 31, 2023 has been considered. Equity Valuation Index (EVI) is a proprietary model
of ICICI Prudential AMC Ltd. (the AMC) used for assessing overall equity market valuations. The AMC may also use this model for other facilities/features offered by the AMC.
Boom Phase: Positive Investor Sentiments
27
Consistent SIP flows driving the buying spree of Mutual Fund houses are a reflection of positive sentiments,
however excluding SIPs flows are muted
Data as on August 31, 2023. Data Source: DAM Capital and JP Morgan. For Mutual Fund Flows: Data till July 31, 2023 is considered.
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
Apr-20
Feb-21
Dec-21
Oct-22
SIP Collections (INR Mn)
Aug-23
(300,000)
(200,000)
(100,000)
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
Apr-20
Jul-20
Oct-20
Jan-21
Apr-21
Jul-21
Oct-21
Jan-22
Apr-22
Jul-22
Oct-22
Jan-23
Apr-23
Jul-23
Mutual Fund Flows (Ex- SIP)- INR Bn
Boom Phase: Positive Investor Sentiments
28
With sustained momentum of Cumulative FII flows, India is gaining a much bigger share of regional flows
Data as on September 11,2023. For Regional Flows of FIIs: Data as on August 31,2023. Data Source: JP Morgan. ASEAN: ASEAN is an organization of 10 member countries :
Brunei, Burma (Myanmar), Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam. ASEAN ex SG: ASEAN countries excluding Singapore. FII:
Foreign Institutional Investor, Bn: Billion
5,500
7,500
9,500
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
22,000
Dec-19
Mar-20
Jun-20
Sep-20
Dec-20
Mar-21
Jun-21
Sep-21
Dec-21
Mar-22
Jun-22
Sep-22
Dec-22
Mar-23
Jun-23
Sep-23
FII
Flows
(INR
Bn)
Nifty
50
Index
Markets tracking FII Flows
Cumulative FII flows (Rs. Bn, RHS) Nifty 50 Index
(24)
(20)
(16)
(12)
(8)
(4)
-
4
8
12
16
Apr-21
Jun-21
Aug-21
Oct-21
Dec-21
Feb-22
Apr-22
Jun-22
Aug-22
Oct-22
Dec-22
Feb-23
Apr-23
Jun-23
Aug-23
Regional Flows of FIIs (Rs. Bn.)
India ASEAN ex SG Korea Taiwan
Boom Phase: Positive Investor Sentiments
29
Increasing gross trading volumes with declining share of
Institutional investors signify rising retail participation
Data as on September 08, 2023. For Put- Call Ratio: Data as on July 31,2023. Data Source: JP Morgan. FII: Foreign Institutional Investor, DII: Domestic Institutional Investor Bn:
Billion.
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
Jan-13
Sep-13
May-14
Jan-15
Sep-15
May-16
Jan-17
Sep-17
May-18
Jan-19
Sep-19
May-20
Jan-21
Sep-21
May-22
Jan-23
Sep-23
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
Gross
Trading
Volumes
(INR
Bn)
Share
of
FII
&
DII
Share in Trading Volume
Gross Trading Value (INR bn) Institutional share in turnover (FII + DII)
Declining Put-Call ratio warrants for
positive investor sentiments
0.70
0.56
0.44
0.48
0.52
0.56
0.60
0.64
0.68
0.72
Jan-21
Mar-21
May-21
Jul-21
Sep-21
Nov-21
Jan-22
Mar-22
May-22
Jul-22
Sep-22
Nov-22
Jan-23
Mar-23
May-23
Jul-23
Put-Call Ratio
-1.1
14.8
-19.0 -15.7
41.0
59.0
41.9
12.7
8.3 9.6
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Jun-19
Dec-19
Jun-20
Dec-20
Jun-21
Dec-21
Jun-22
Dec-22
Jul-23
Aug-23
1 Yr Earnings Growth (Y-o-Y %)
1Year EPS Growth (%)
Boom Phase: Earnings Trajectory Climbing Up
30
Data as on August 31, 2023. Data Source: Crisil Research and NSE, Earnings for Nifty 50 Companies have been considered. Returns for 1 year are calculated on absolute basis
and more than 1 year are calculated on CAGR basis. Covid- Coronavirus Disease 2019.
Corporate Earnings continue to gain traction at levels ahead of Pre-covid results
5.9 6.8
-10.5
-1.6
6.9
15.8
33.3 33.9
29.7
17.0
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Jun-19
Dec-19
Jun-20
Dec-20
Jun-21
Dec-21
Jun-22
Dec-22
Jul-23
Aug-23
2 Yrs Earnings Growth (Y-o-Y %)
2Year EPS Growth (%)
Gaining momentum of GDP bodes well for corporate earnings growth
7.3 7.2
5.3 5.2 4.8 4.8
3.7 3.5 3.4 3 2.9 2.8
2.1 2 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.3
-0.1
-3.2
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
Saudi
Arabia
India
Indonesia
Argentina
Spain
EU
Australia
Mexico
Canada
Brazil
China
Italy
South
Africa
South
Korea
UK
France
United
States
Japan
Germany
Russia
FY23 GDP Growth (%)
Boom Phase: India’s GDP shining bright
31
Data as on March 31,2023. Data Source: ICICI Securities. GDP: Gross Domestic Product, UK: United Kingdom, YoY: Year on Year and EU: European Union. Percentages shown
above have been calculated on Year on Year basis. The G20 or Group of 20 is an intergovernmental forum comprising 19 countries and the European Union.
Indian Economy is emerging as one of the fastest growing economy amongst the G20 Nations
Summary & Outlook
32
• While globally there is a shift in macro trends, India continues to hold its Macro Fort Steady
• With sound fundamentals and multiple structural reforms underway, the economy is at the cusp of further up-
cycle in the long run
• Favorable demographics and demand too bodes well for the economy
• Long term structural story remains intact albeit with near term volatility owing to global growth-inflation
dynamics and evolving geo-political factors and uncertainties
• Post March-23, Indian equity market valuations have become richer with upbeat sentiments on growth and
profitability
• We believe that markets are in a boom phase and prefer large caps given the recent outperformance of mid and
small cap stocks
• We recommend investing in diversified equity schemes having flexibility to move across market caps/ sectors
/themes coupled with Hybrid schemes that allocate across different asset classes with an aim to navigate
volatility
The sector(s)/stock(s) mentioned in this slide do not constitute any recommendation and ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund may or may not have any future position in this sector(s)/stock(s).
Understanding Fixed Income Landscape
India’s Fixed Income Markets : Then & Now
Post 2014, India’s business cycle never entered expansion cycle mainly due to: 1. Impairment of
financial sector balance sheets due to outflow of large corporate loans and 2. Real estate loans in the
NBFC balance sheet. Both kept the banking balance sheet distressed and effective loan rates high for
the borrowers despite RBI bringing down interest rates in the pre-demonetization period.
Also, before 2018 monetary conditions remained tight due to RBI’s inflation targeting framework. As a
result, capacity utilization started trailing and credit growth started falling. Residential real estate
market too saw an inventory built up.
However, things changed post-pandemic as 1. RBI changed the pace of monetary easing and 2. the
fiscal balance sheet of the government started to expand to support growth. Due to Fiscal and
Monetary support, economy moved from slow phase of growth to the expansion cycle.
NBFC: Non Banking Financial Companies
35
In 2018-2020 phase RBI used to focus on inflation for monetary action. And when economy moved into
slower growth resulting into lower inflation, RBI had the room to cut interest rates.
GROWTH
High Inflation
Low Inflation
High Growth
Low Growth
INFLATION
Slow Growth Phase
of Economic Cycle:
2018 to 2020
Phases of Economic Cycle
36
GROWTH
High Growth –
Low Inflation
Low Growth –
Low Inflation
High Growth –
High Inflation
Low Growth –
High Inflation
INFLATION
The above is based on various calculations and assumptions. Actual scenarios may vary.
No Policy
Action
Rate Cut
Rate Hike
No Policy
Action
Now, RBI has shifted its focus from inflation only to interplay between growth and inflation. Hence, going forward for
policy action, trajectory of inflation & growth would become important. Currently, growth being strong and inflation
in RBI’s tolerable zone, possibility of rate action is low
Phases of Economic Cycle and Policy Action
37
Recovery Late Cycle
Expansion Slowdown
Steep Inverted
Flattish Low
We are Here
Economic Cycle
Shape of the
Yield Curve
Phases of Economic Cycle and Yield Curves
38
The capacity utilization levels have gone up for first time in the last 9 years. This is evident in various
sectors like power, cement, steel where the overall capacity utilizations are at a much higher point.
65
67
69
71
73
75
77
79
81
83
85
Mar-08
Sep-08
Mar-09
Sep-09
Mar-10
Sep-10
Mar-11
Sep-11
Mar-12
Sep-12
Mar-13
Sep-13
Mar-14
Sep-14
Mar-15
Sep-15
Mar-16
Sep-16
Mar-17
Sep-17
Mar-18
Sep-18
Mar-19
Sep-19
Mar-20
Sep-20
Mar-21
Sep-21
Mar-22
Sep-22
Mar-23
All India Capacity Utilization Levels
Data as on March 31,2023. Source: RBI; https://www.rbi.org.in/Scripts/PublicationsView.aspx?id=20650.
Economic Cycle :
All India Capacity Utilization Levels
39
4%
8%
12%
16%
20%
Jul-14
Jul-15
Jul-16
Jul-17
Jul-18
Jul-19
Jul-20
Jul-21
Jul-22
Jul-23
Non Food Credit Growth (Y-o-Y %)
Credit growth has moved up from an average of 8-10% to an average of 14-16%, which corroborates
well with the mid cycle numbers.
Data as on July 31,2023. Source: RBI; https://www.rbi.org.in/Scripts/PublicationsView.aspx?id=20650; YOY- Year on Year.
Economic Cycle :
Rise in Credit Growth (Y-O-Y%)
40
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Q1-2008
Q3-2008
Q1-2009
Q3-2009
Q1-2010
Q3-2010
Q1-2011
Q3-2011
Q1-2012
Q3-2012
Q1-2013
Q3-2013
Q1-2014
Q3-2014
Q1-2015
Q3-2015
Q1-2016
Q3-2016
Q1-2017
Q3-2017
Q1-2018
Q3-2018
Q1-2019
Q3-2019
Q1-2020
Q3-2020
Q1-2021
Q3-2021
Q1-2022
Q3-2022
Q1-2023
Q3-2023*
Residential Overhang (in Months)
The inventory overhang in the residential real estate has gone down substantially. The number of
months of inventory is close to where it used to be in the last strong real estate cycle i.e. 2009-2011
Data as on Dec 31,2022. Data Source: CRISIL Research. Q: Quarter . Inventory Overhang is an estimate of the amount of time it would take to sell all of the current
listings in an area, provided that there are no new listings
Economic Cycle :
Residential Inventory Overhang
41
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Jun-2012
Jun-2013
Jun-2014
Jun-2015
Jun-2016
Jun-2017
Jun-2018
Jun-2019
Jun-2020
Jun-2021
Jun-2022
Jun-2023
Nominal vs Real WALR (%)
Nominal weighted avg. lending rate (WALR) Real WALR
During 2016-2020, most banks did not have their balance sheets capitalized which reflected in overall
high weighted average lending rates for the borrowers. Currently, the effective loan rates have come
down despite rake hikes due to healthy banking balance sheets
Data Source: CRISIL Research. Weighted Average Lending Rate is the interest rate charged on all the outstanding loans of banks
Economic Cycle :
Real Weighted Average Lending Rate (WALR)
42
4.1 3.9 3.5 3.5 3.4
4.6
9.2
6.7 6.4 5.9
- - 0.5
1.8 1.8
1.5
1.0
0.4
- 0.5
2.6 3.1 3.5
2.4 2.4
2.6
4.1
2.7
2.8 3.2
-
0.7
0.7
6.7
7.7
8.2 7.7 7.7
8.7
14.2
9.8
9.2 9.6
FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24BE
State off-budget (UDAY bonds)
State govt. fiscal deficit
Centre off-budget (FCI IEBR, GOI Services bonds, NSSF loans, Air India, Recap Bonds)
Centre reported fiscal deficit
The combined fiscal deficit of centre, state and center off budget has gone up as compared to FY2015-20. In FY2021-
22, it was required to run a high fiscal deficit to support the private sector. The fiscal deficit looks high even now and
on a total basis there is hardly been any consolidation between the 3 years.
Data Source: CRISIL Research. FY: Financial Year. FCI: Food Corporation of India, IEBR: Internal & Extra Budgetary Resources, GOI: Government of India, NSSF: National
Small Savings Fund, UDAY: Ujjwal DISCOM Assurance Yojana. BE: Budgeted Estimate
Economic Cycle :
Fiscal Deficit Elevated v/s Pre-Pandemic Levels
43
 There are a lot of catalysts which are at play like government spending's, fiscal and monetary support,
improved balance sheets for corporates and banks etc. which has helped India to move into the mid stage of
business cycle.
 In this phase, economic growth may continue to remain strong without inflation sustainably breaching the
RBI’s tolerance band.
 Effectively, this phase is a neutral zone for the RBI as the economy can thrive without policy action.
 We will, however, keep a watch on the forward looking data as any shift in the growth trajectory could
change the RBI’s status quo.
 We continue to remain positive on accrual assets due to stable macros and elevated interest rates.
 Floating rate bonds too, may continue to see improved demand for their attractive spreads.
 We recommend shorter-duration schemes and also dynamic duration schemes as they can actively manage
instruments with various credit ratings and actively manage duration to handle interest-rate fluctuations.
India Outlook
Business Cycle in USA
44
USA is in a different cycle altogether, where it has already seen the start of a late cycle. The response to
COVID in terms of fiscal and monetary stimulus was much aggressive compared to India which resulted in
growth coming back faster in USA compared to other economies. But, this resulted in overheating of
economy and hyper-inflation as a by-product. This difference in business cycle is the main reason why USA
Fed is more aggressive than RBI, resulting in slowdown in growth
USA: United State of America. Covid: Coronavirus Disease
45
Recovery Late Cycle
Expansion Slowdown
Steep Inverted
Flattish Low
USA is Here
Economic Cycle
Shape of the
Yield Curve
USA: United State of America.
Economic Cycles and the Yield Curves
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Jan-20
Mar-20
May-20
Jul-20
Sep-20
Nov-20
Jan-21
Mar-21
May-21
Jul-21
Sep-21
Nov-21
Jan-22
Mar-22
May-22
Jul-22
Sep-22
Nov-22
Jan-23
Mar-23
May-23
Jul-23
Sep-23
Rate Hike Journey of US Fed vs RBI
US Fed - Funds Rate (Upper) RBI - Repo Rate
46
As the business cycle is more advanced in the US, US Fed has been more aggressive compared to RBI
Data as on Sep 08,2023. Source: FED Reserve and RBI. US FED: United State of America Federal Reserve; RBI: Reserve Bank of India.
Rate Hikes by RBI and US Fed
47
The gap is at a historical low, reflecting the difference in aggression between both central banks
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Aug-08
Feb-09
Aug-09
Feb-10
Aug-10
Feb-11
Aug-11
Feb-12
Aug-12
Feb-13
Aug-13
Feb-14
Aug-14
Feb-15
Aug-15
Feb-16
Aug-16
Feb-17
Aug-17
Feb-18
Aug-18
Feb-19
Aug-19
Feb-20
Aug-20
Feb-21
Aug-21
Feb-22
Aug-22
Feb-23
Aug-23
10 Year G-Sec (%) – USA vs India
India G-Sec 10 Year US G-Sec 10 Year
Data as on Aug 31,2023. Source: FED Reserve and RBI. US: United State of America; G-Sec: Government Securities. Fed: Federal Reserve System
Gap between US and India 10 Year
48
-3.75
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
Jul-14 Jul-15 Jul-16 Jul-17 Jul-18 Jul-19 Jul-20 Jul-21 Jul-22 Jul-23
Capex (% change, year ago)
The impact of FED's rate increase was evident in some areas like capex. The capex in the USA has
turned lower compared to the normal period.
Data as on July 31,2023. Source: FED Reserve. US: United State of America; Capex – Capital Expenditure.
USA : Capex
49
-0.80
-0.60
-0.40
-0.20
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Jul-21
Aug-21
Sep-21
Oct-21
Nov-21
Dec-21
Jan-22
Feb-22
Mar-22
Apr-22
May-22
Jun-22
Jul-22
Aug-22
Sep-22
Oct-22
Nov-22
Dec-22
Jan-23
Feb-23
Mar-23
Apr-23
May-23
Jun-23
Jul-23
Manufacturing
&
Services
Purchasing Managers Index
Services Manufacturing Average Activity Index
Activity
Index
Sentiment indicators like ISM Manufacturing and ISM Services are also trending lower. Manufacturing
continues to remain in the contractionary zone for the last 8 months.
Data as on July 31,2023. Source: FED Reserve. US: United State of America; ISM: The Institute of Supply Management.
USA : Purchasing Managers Index
50
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Aug-21 Feb-22 Aug-22 Feb-23 Aug-23
CAI Sector Breakdown
HOUSING OTHER MANUFACTURING CONSUMER LABOR
Some of the activity indicators are also showing slowdown in the USA, particularly on the
manufacturing side.
Data as on Aug 31,2023. Source: FED Reserve. US: United State of America.
USA :
Current Activity Index (CAI) Sector Breakdown
51
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
Mar-00
Mar-01
Mar-02
Mar-03
Mar-04
Mar-05
Mar-06
Mar-07
Mar-08
Mar-09
Mar-10
Mar-11
Mar-12
Mar-13
Mar-14
Mar-15
Mar-16
Mar-17
Mar-18
Mar-19
Mar-20
Mar-21
Mar-22
Mar-23
USA CAD (% of GDP)
US CAD
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
Mar-00
Mar-01
Mar-02
Mar-03
Mar-04
Mar-05
Mar-06
Mar-07
Mar-08
Mar-09
Mar-10
Mar-11
Mar-12
Mar-13
Mar-14
Mar-15
Mar-16
Mar-17
Mar-18
Mar-19
Mar-20
Mar-21
Mar-22
Mar-23
USA Fiscal Deficit (% of GDP)
US Fiscal Deficit
USA's Fiscal Deficit remains elevated along with high Current Account Deficit which continues to pose
challenges for the economy.
Data as on March 31,2023. Source: FED Reserve. US: United State of America; GDP: Gross Domestic Product. CAD: Current Account Deficit
USA :
Current Account Deficit and Fiscal Deficit
52
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Aug-05
Aug-06
Aug-07
Aug-08
Aug-09
Aug-10
Aug-11
Aug-12
Aug-13
Aug-14
Aug-15
Aug-16
Aug-17
Aug-18
Aug-19
Aug-20
Aug-21
Aug-22
Aug-23
Wage Growth (%)
Labor market has been a lagging indicator and wage growth still remains strong. Though we have
started to see some signs of unemployment increasing.
Data as on Aug 31,2023. Source: FED Reserve. US: United State of America.
USA : Wage Growth
53
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
1Y 2Y 3Y 4Y 5Y 6Y 7Y 8Y 9Y 10Y 20Y 30Y
US Treasury Inflation Indexed Curve (Mid YTM %)
Last 6M 2Y
The real yields have started to invert which reflects that the fixed income markets are trying to price in
the slower growth rate going forward.
Data as on Aug 31,2023. Source: FED Reserve. US: United State of America; Last: Aug 31, 2023; M: Months Ago: Y: Years Ago.
USA : Real Yield Curve
54
Income
Dispersion
Retail
Credit
Monsoon
Key Risks for India
55
-70.0
-60.0
-50.0
-40.0
-30.0
-20.0
-10.0
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
1-Jun-23
6-Jun-23
12-Jun-23
17-Jun-23
22-Jun-23
27-Jun-23
2-Jul-23
7-Jul-23
12-Jul-23
18-Jul-23
23-Jul-23
29-Jul-23
3-Aug-23
8-Aug-23
13-Aug-23
18-Aug-23
23-Aug-23
28-Aug-23
Cumulative deviation of monsoon from
monsoon (%)
2%
37%
43%
14%
4%
6%
27%
31%
22%
14%
Large
Deficit
(-99% to -
60%)
Deficit
(-59% to -
20%)
Normal
(-19% to
+19%)
Excess
(+20% to
+59%)
Large
excess
(>60%)
Spatial distribution
% share of districts in Normal/ deficits/
excess
27-Aug-23 27-Aug-22
Monsoons in India has deteriorated substantially especially in the month of August. There is a risk that if
monsoons don’t improve now then the rice crop yield can fall because of lack of water supply.
Source – Morgan Stanley Research.
India : Monsoon
56
2.9
4
5 5.9
7.9
10.2 29%
0.7
1.1
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.1 25%
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 5 yr
CAGR
Unsecured credit system (INR trn)
Personal loans Credit cards
1.31
1.87
2.34
2.59
2.85
3.15 19%
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 5 yr
CAGR
MFI system level(INR trn)
Over the last 5 years, the unsecured rate in the system has grown by ~29% and the MFI credit has grown
at the pace of ~19%. Unless income growth in the lower middle and the lower strata of the population
picks up, there is a risk that the credit parameters for this pace will worsen and can turn into NPAs.
Source – Morgan Stanley Research. NPA: Non-Performing Assets; Trn: Trillion; CAGR: Compounded Annual Growth Rate; MFI: Micro Finance Institutions.
India : Unsecured Lending
57
-
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
Dec-19
Mar-20
Jun-20
Sep-20
Dec-20
Mar-21
Jun-21
Sep-21
Dec-21
Mar-22
Jun-22
Sep-22
Dec-22
Mar-23
Jun-23
Motorcycle sales indexed to Dec-2019
Motorcycles Premium segment (200cc and above)
Motor cycles (<125cc)
-
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
Dec-19
Mar-20
Jun-20
Sep-20
Dec-20
Mar-21
Jun-21
Sep-21
Dec-21
Mar-22
Jun-22
Sep-22
Dec-22
Mar-23
Jun-23
PV sales indexed to Dec-2019
Premium cars Micro and compact cars
COVID has impacted the lower strata of the society more, which is visible in the consumption trends of
two wheeler and four wheeler sales
Data as on June 30,2023. Source – Morgan Stanley Research. PV: Private Vehicles. Covid: Coronavirus Disease 2019
India : Divergent Consumption Trends
58
Our model remains
cautious on long-duration
and recommends tactical
exposure, as the term
premium remains modest
coupled with an
expectation of interest rate
pause for an extended
period
KEY TAKEAWAYS
Data as on August 31, 2023. Debt Valuation Index considers WPI, CPI, Sensex returns, Gold returns and Real estate returns over G-Sec yield, Current Account Balance, Fiscal
Balance, Credit Growth and Crude Oil Movement for calculation. Debt Valuation Index is a proprietary model of ICICI Prudential AMC Ltd. (the AMC) used for assessing over all
debt valuations. The AMC may also use this model for other facilities/features offered by the AMC.
2.71
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Apr
2014
Aug
2015
Dec
2016
Apr
2018
Aug
2019
Dec
2020
Apr
2022
Aug
2023
Very Cautious
Aggressive
Highly Aggressive
Cautious
Moderate
Case for low to moderate duration –
In-House Debt Duration Valuation Index
59
Scheme
Modified Duration (Years)
Dec 2021 August 2023 Difference
ICICI Prudential Liquid Fund 0.1 0.1 0.0
ICICI Prudential Money Market Fund 0.2 0.4 0.2
ICICI Prudential Ultra Short Term Fund 0.2 0.4 0.2
ICICI Prudential Savings Fund 0.8 0.7 -0.1
ICICI Prudential Floating Interest Fund 1.6 0.8 -0.8
ICICI Prudential Credit Risk Fund 1.6 1.8 0.2
ICICI Prudential Short Term Fund 1.6 2.3 0.7
ICICI Prudential Corporate Bond Fund 2.7 1.8 -0.9
ICICI Prudential Banking & PSU Debt Fund 3.9 1.9 -2.0
ICICI Prudential Medium Term Bond Fund 2.5 3.0 0.5
ICICI Prudential Bond Fund 4.2 4.0 -0.2
ICICI Prudential All Seasons Bond Fund 2.3 3.0 0.7
ICICI Prudential Long Term Bond Fund 8.3 7.1 -1.2
ICICI Prudential Gilt Fund 7.0 2.5 -4.5
Data as on August 31, 2023.
Our Current Portfolio Positioning –
Exposure to Low to Moderate Duration
60
Scheme Name
Cash* +
Gsec^
AAA/A1+ AA Below AA-
YTM
Modified
Duration
(%
Holding)
(% Holding) (% Holding)
ICICI Prudential Overnight Fund 100.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 6.66% 1 Days
ICICI Prudential Liquid Fund 17.99% 81.53% 0.47% 0.00% 7.04% 39 Days
ICICI Prudential Money Market Fund 17.62% 82.38% 0.00% 0.00% 7.33% 162 Days
ICICI Prudential Ultra Short Term Fund 16.29% 70.41% 13.30% 0.00% 7.48% 145 Days
ICICI Prudential Savings Fund 30.51% 65.85% 3.63% 0.00% 7.67% 253 Days
ICICI Prudential Floating Interest Fund 62.84% 30.05% 7.11% 0.00% 8.06% 281 Days
ICICI Prudential Corporate Bond Fund 30.53% 69.47% 0.00% 0.00% 7.83% 1.8 Yrs
ICICI Prudential Short Term Fund 41.47% 44.51% 14.02% 0.00% 7.97% 2.3 Yrs
ICICI Prudential Banking & PSU Debt Fund 29.01% 70.99% 0.00% 0.00% 7.71% 1.9 Yrs
ICICI Prudential Medium Term Bond Fund 40.63% 16.05% 43.32% 0.00% 8.21% 3.0 Yrs
ICICI Prudential Credit Risk Fund# 29.45% 15.24% 41.51% 8.75% 8.35% 1.8 Yrs
ICICI Prudential All Seasons Bond Fund 59.08% 15.80% 25.13% 0.00% 7.93% 3.0 Yrs
Data as on August 31, 2023. The Yield to Maturity (YTM) mentioned is based on scheme portfolios dated August 31, 2023. YTM is the rate of return anticipated on a bond if held
until maturity. This should not be considered as an indication of the returns that maybe generated by the scheme. The securities bought by the scheme may or may not be held till
their respective maturities. Past performance may or may not be sustained in future, *Includes TREPS & Net Current Assets, ^ Includes Treasury Bills, # - Excludes REITs and
InvITs which stands at 5.06%.
Spread Assets
Our Current Portfolio Positioning –
Exposure to spread assets
61
Actively managed portfolios
should be preferred
Mid-Cycle means fixed
income is at an attractive
space
Interest rates are expected to
remain in a range and RBI can
afford for a elongated pause
Floating rate bond call in
various portfolios has
played out well
Short Duration up to 3-4
years looks attractive
Tactical trading in long duration
Outlook & Summary
62
Long-Term
(More than 3 Years)
• IPRU All Seasons Bond Fund
Parking Option
(3-12 Months)
• IPRU Ultra Short Term
• IPRU Savings Fund
Short Term
(1-3 Years)
• IPRU Short Term Fund
• IPRU Corporate Bond Fund
• IPRU Banking & PSU Debt
Fund
Our Key Recommendations
IPRU: ICICI Prudential
Investment Approach and Scheme
Recommendations
Investment Playbook for 2023 –
An era of Multiple Asset Classes
64
Category Outlook Our View Scheme Recommendations
Equity
Valuations moderated but remains in
NEUTRAL zone.
Long term ‘POSITIVE’
IPRU Business Cycle Fund, IPRU Flexicap Fund,
IPRU Focused Equity Fund, IPRU Value Discovery Fund
Asset Allocation/
Hybrid
Volatility expected to persist
IPRU Balanced Advantage Fund, IPRU Multi-Asset Fund,
IPRU Equity & Debt Fund
Fixed Income
High yields making the space
attractive
IPRU Ultra Short Term Fund, IPRU Short Term Fund,
IPRU Credit Risk Fund, IPRU All Seasons Bond Fund
Positive
Neutral
IPRU – ICICI Prudential. Asset allocation and investment strategy will be as per Scheme Information Document.
Investment Approach for 2023 - SAFE
Recommend
Freedom SIP /
Booster STP
in Equity
Schemes
Expect volatility,
recommend asset
allocation across
asset classes /
geographies
Debt schemes
attractive post
rate hikes
For parking
surplus funds
S A F E
TRIGGER The only trigger we would be watching out is further
moderation in Indian Equity Market valuations for giving a
more aggressive call
ASSET
ALLOCATION
STAGGERED FIXED
INCOME
EQUITY
ARBITRAGE /
EQUITY SAVINGS
FUND
SAFE is an acronym used for Investment Approach for 2023 and does not in any manner indicate safety or less risk, For Freedom SIP & Booster STP disclaimer refer slide 81.
65
66
Riskometers
ICICI Prudential Business Cycle Fund (An open ended equity scheme following business cycles based
investing theme) is suitable for investors whoare seeking*:
 Long term wealth creation
 An equity scheme that invests in Indian markets with focus on riding business cycles through dynamic
allocation between various sectors and stocks at different stages of business cycles
*Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them
ICICI Prudential Flexicap Fund (An open ended dynamic equity scheme investing across large cap,
mid cap & small cap stocks) is suitable for investors who are seeking*:
 Long term wealth creation
 An open ended dynamic equity scheme investing across large cap, mid cap and small cap stocks
*Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them
ICICI Prudential Focused Equity Fund (An open ended equity scheme investing in maximum 30 stocks across
market-capitalization i.e. focus on multicap) suitable for investors who are seeking*:
 Long term wealth creation
 An open ended equity scheme investing in maximum 30 stocks across market-capitalisation
*Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them
Please note that the Risk-o-meter(s) specified above will be evaluated and updated on a monthly basis. The above riskometers are as on August 31, 2023 Please refer to
https://www.icicipruamc.com/news-and-updates/all-news for more details.
67
Riskometers
ICICI Prudential Value Discovery Fund (An open ended equity scheme following a value investment
strategy.)is suitable for investors who are seeking*:
 Long term wealth creation
 An open ended equity scheme following a value investment strategy
*Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them
Please note that the Risk-o-meter(s) specified above will be evaluated and updated on a monthly basis. The above riskometers are as on August 31, 2023 Please refer to
https://www.icicipruamc.com/news-and-updates/all-news for more details.
ICICI Prudential Balanced Advantage Fund (An open ended dynamic asset allocation fund) is suitable
for investors who are seeking*:
 Long term capital appreciation/income
 Investing in equity and equity related securities and debt instruments
*Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them
ICICI Prudential Floating Interest Fund (An open ended debt scheme predominantly investing in floating rate
instruments (including fixed rate instruments converted to floating rate exposures using swaps/derivatives). A
relatively high interest rate risk and moderate credit risk ) is suitable for investors who are seeking*:
 Short term savings
 An open ended debt scheme predominantly investing in floating rate instruments
*Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them
68
Riskometers
Macaulay duration is the weighted average term to maturity of the cash flows from a bond. The weight of each cash flow is determined by dividing the present value of the cash flow by the price
ICICI Prudential Gilt Fund (An open ended debt scheme investing in government securities across
maturity. A relatively high interest rate risk and relatively low credit risk.) is suitable for investors who
are seeking*:
 Long term wealth creation
 A Gilt scheme that aims to generate income through investment in Gilts of various maturities
*Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them
ICICI Prudential Savings Fund (An open ended low duration debt scheme investing in instruments such
that the Macaulay duration of the portfolio is between 6 months and 12 months. A relatively high
interest rate risk and moderate credit risk) is suitable for investors who are seeking*:
 Short term savings
 An open ended low duration debt scheme that aims to maximize income by investing in debt and
money market instruments while maintaining optimum balance of yield, safety and liquidity
*Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them
ICICI Prudential All Seasons Bond Fund (An open ended dynamic debt scheme investing across duration.
A relatively high interest rate risk and moderate credit risk) is suitable for investors who are seeking*:
 All duration savings
 A debt scheme that invests in debt and money market instruments with a view to maximize income
while maintaining optimum balance of yield, safety and liquidity
*Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them
Please note that the Risk-o-meter(s) specified above will be evaluated and updated on a monthly basis. The above riskometers are as on August 31, 2023 Please refer to
https://www.icicipruamc.com/news-and-updates/all-news for more details.
69
Riskometers
Macaulay duration is the weighted average term to maturity of the cash flows from a bond. The weight of each cash flow is determined by dividing the present value of the cash flow by the price
ICICI Prudential Corporate Bond Fund (An open ended debt scheme predominantly investing in AA+ and
above rated corporate bonds. A relatively high interest rate risk and moderate credit risk) is suitable for
investors who are seeking*:
 Short term savings
 An open ended debt scheme predominantly investing in highest rated corporate bonds
*Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them
ICICI Prudential Liquid Fund (An open ended liquid scheme. A relatively low interest rate risk and
moderate credit risk) is suitable for investors who are seeking*:
 Short term savings solution
 A liquid fund that aims to provide reasonable returns commensurate with low risk and providing a
high level of liquidity
*Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them
ICICI Prudential Ultra Short Term (An open ended ultra-short term debt scheme investing in instruments
such that the Macaulay duration of the portfolio is between 3 months and 6 months. A moderate interest
rate risk and moderate credit risk) Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*:
 Short term regular income
 An open ended ultra-short term debt scheme investing in a range of debt and money market instruments
*Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them
Please note that the Risk-o-meter(s) specified above will be evaluated and updated on a monthly basis. The above riskometers are as on August 31, 2023 Please refer to
https://www.icicipruamc.com/news-and-updates/all-news for more details.
 Short term savings
 A money market scheme that seeks to provide reasonable returns, commensurate with low risk while
providing a high level of liquidity
70
Riskometers
Macaulay duration is the weighted average term to maturity of the cash flows from a bond. The weight of each cash flow is determined by dividing the present value of the cash flow by the price
ICICI Prudential Money Market Fund (An open ended debt scheme investing in money market instruments.
A relatively low interest rate risk and moderate credit risk) is suitable for investors who are seeking*:
*Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them
Please note that the Risk-o-meter(s) specified above will be evaluated and updated on a monthly basis. The above riskometers are as on August 31, 2023 Please refer to
https://www.icicipruamc.com/news-and-updates/all-news for more details.
ICICI Prudential Banking & PSU Debt Fund (An open ended debt scheme predominantly investing in Debt
instruments of banks, Public Sector Undertakings, Public Financial Institutions and Municipal bonds. A
relatively high interest rate risk and moderate credit risk) is suitable for investors who are seeking*:
 Short term savings
 An open ended debt scheme predominantly investing in Debt instruments of banks, Public Sector
Undertakings, Public Financial Institutions and Municipal Bonds
*Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them
ICICI Prudential Short Term Fund (An open ended short term debt scheme investing in instruments such
that the Macaulay duration of the portfolio is between 1 Year and 3 Years. A relatively high interest rate
risk and moderate credit risk) is suitable for investors who are seeking*:
 Short term income generation and capital appreciation solution
 A debt fund that aims to generate income by investing in a range of debt and money market
instruments of various maturities
*Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them
71
Riskometers
Macaulay duration is the weighted average term to maturity of the cash flows from a bond. The weight of each cash flow is determined by dividing the present value of the cash flow by the price
ICICI Prudential Medium Term Bond Fund (An Open Ended medium term debt scheme investing in instruments
such that the Macaulay duration of the portfolio is between 3 Years and 4 Years The Macaulay duration of the
portfolio is 1 Year to 4 years under anticipated adverse situation. A relatively high interest rate risk and
moderate credit risk) is suitable for investors who are seeking*:
 Medium term savings
 A debt scheme that invests in debt and money market instruments with a view to maximize income while
maintaining optimum balance of yield, safety and liquidity
*Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them
Please note that the Risk-o-meter(s) specified above will be evaluated and updated on a monthly basis. The above riskometers are as on August 31, 2023 Please refer to
https://www.icicipruamc.com/news-and-updates/all-news for more details.
ICICI Prudential Credit Risk Fund (An open ended debt scheme predominantly investing in AA and below rated
corporate bonds. A relatively high interest rate risk and relatively high credit risk) is suitable for investors who
are seeking*:
 Medium term savings
 A debt scheme that aims to generate income through investing predominantly in AA and below rated
corporate bonds while maintaining the optimum balance of yield, safety and liquidity
*Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them
ICICI Prudential Equity & Debt Fund (An open ended hybrid scheme investing predominantly in equity
and equity related instruments) is suitable for investors whoare seeking*:
 Long term wealth creation solution
 A balanced fund aiming for long term capital appreciation and current income by investing in equity
as well as fixed income securities
*Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them
72
Riskometers
ICICI Prudential Bond Fund (An open ended medium to long term debt scheme investing in instruments such
that the Macaulay duration of the portfolio is between 4 Years and 7 years. The Macaulay duration of the
portfolio is 1 Year to 7 years under anticipated adverse situation. A relatively high interest rate risk and
moderate credit risk) is suitable for investors who are seeking*
 Medium to Long term savings
 A debt scheme that invests in debt and money market instruments with an aim to maximize income while
maintaining an optimum balance of yield, safety and liquidity
*Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them
Please note that the Risk-o-meter(s) specified above will be evaluated and updated on a monthly basis. The above riskometers are as on August 31, 2023 Please refer to
https://www.icicipruamc.com/news-and-updates/all-news for more details.
Macaulay duration is the weighted average term to maturity of the cash flows from a bond. The weight of each cash flow is determined by dividing the present value of the cash flow by the price
ICICI Prudential Long Term Bond Fund (An open-ended debt scheme investing in instruments such that the
Macaulay duration of the portfolio is greater than 7 Years A relatively high interest rate risk and relatively low
credit risk) is suitable for investors who are seeking*:
 Long term wealth creation
 A debt scheme that invests in debt and money market instruments with an aim to maximize income while
maintaining an optimum balance of yield, safety and liquidity.
*Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them
ICICI Prudential Multi-Asset Fund (An open ended scheme investing in Equity, Debt and Exchange
Traded Commodity Derivatives/units of Gold ETFs/units of REITs & InvITs/Preference shares) is suitable
for investors who are seeking*:
 Long Term Wealth Creation
 An open ended scheme investing across asset classes
*Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them
73
Riskometers
Please note that the Risk-o-meter(s) specified above will be evaluated and updated on a monthly basis. The above riskometers are as on August 31, 2023 Please refer to
https://www.icicipruamc.com/news-and-updates/all-news for more details.
Macaulay duration is the weighted average term to maturity of the cash flows from a bond. The weight of each cash flow is determined by dividing the present value of the cash flow by the price
ICICI Prudential Overnight Fund (An open ended debt scheme investing in overnight securities. A
relatively low interest rate risk and relatively low credit risk) is suitable for investors who are seeking*:
 Short term savings
 An overnight fund that aims to provide reasonable returns commensurate with low risk and
providing a high level of liquidity.
*Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them
74
YTM disclaimers
As per AMFI Best Practices Guidelines Circular No. AMFI/35P/MEM-COR/72/2022-23 dated December 31, 2022 on Standard format for disclosure of portfolio YTM for debt
schemes. Yield of the instrument is disclosed on annualized basis as provided by Valuation agencies. *in case of semi-annual YTM it will be annualized
Macaulay duration is the weighted average term to maturity of the cash flows from a bond. The weight of each cash flow is determined by dividing the present value of the cash flow by the price
YTM Disclaimer: Portfolio Information
Scheme Name : ICICI Prudential Credit Risk Fund
Description (if any)
An open ended debt scheme predominantly investing in AA and below rated corporate
bonds. A relatively high interest rate risk and relatively high credit risk.
Annualised Portfolio YTM* : 8.35%
Macaulay Duration 1.86 Years
Residual Maturity 3.43 Years
As on (Date) August 31, 2023
YTM Disclaimer: Portfolio Information
Scheme Name : ICICI Prudential Overnight Fund
Description (if any)
An open ended debt scheme investing in overnight securities. A relatively low interest
rate risk and relatively low credit risk
Annualised Portfolio YTM* : 6.66%
Macaulay Duration 0.0014 Years
Residual Maturity 0.0041 Years
As on (Date) August 31, 2023
YTM Disclaimer: Portfolio Information
Scheme Name : ICICI Prudential Liquid Fund
Description (if any) An open ended liquid scheme. A relatively low interest rate risk and moderate credit risk
Annualised Portfolio YTM* : 7.04%
Macaulay Duration 0.12 Years
Residual Maturity 0.12 Years
As on (Date) August 31, 2023
75
YTM disclaimers
As per AMFI Best Practices Guidelines Circular No. AMFI/35P/MEM-COR/72/2022-23 dated December 31, 2022 on Standard format for disclosure of portfolio YTM for debt
schemes. Yield of the instrument is disclosed on annualized basis as provided by Valuation agencies. *in case of semi-annual YTM it will be annualized
Macaulay duration is the weighted average term to maturity of the cash flows from a bond. The weight of each cash flow is determined by dividing the present value of the cash flow by the price
YTM Disclaimer Portfolio Information
Scheme Name : ICICI Prudential Money Market Fund
Description (if any)
An open ended debt scheme investing in money market instruments. A relatively low interest rate risk
and moderate credit risk
Annualised Portfolio YTM* : 7.33%
Macaulay Duration 0.47 Years
Residual Maturity 0.48 Years
As on (Date) August 31, 2023
YTM Disclaimer: Portfolio Information
Scheme Name : ICICI Prudential Ultra Short Term Fund
Description (if any)
An open ended ultra-short term debt scheme investing in instruments such that the Macaulay
duration of the portfolio is between 3 months and 6 months A moderate interest rate risk and
moderate credit risk
Annualised Portfolio YTM* : 7.48%
Macaulay Duration 0.43 Years
Residual Maturity 0.46 Years
As on (Date) August 31, 2023
YTM Disclaimer: Portfolio Information
Scheme Name : ICICI Prudential Savings Fund
Description (if any)
An open ended low duration debt scheme investing in instruments such that the Macaulay duration
of the portfolio is between 6 months and 12 months. A relatively high interest rate risk and moderate
credit risk
Annualised Portfolio YTM* : 7.67%
Macaulay Duration 0.74 Years
Residual Maturity 2.51 Years
As on (Date) August 31, 2023
76
YTM disclaimers
As per AMFI Best Practices Guidelines Circular No. AMFI/35P/MEM-COR/72/2022-23 dated December 31, 2022 on Standard format for disclosure of portfolio YTM for debt
schemes. Yield of the instrument is disclosed on annualized basis as provided by Valuation agencies. *in case of semi-annual YTM it will be annualized
Macaulay duration is the weighted average term to maturity of the cash flows from a bond. The weight of each cash flow is determined by dividing the present value of the cash flow by the price
YTM Disclaimer: Portfolio Information
Scheme Name : ICICI Prudential Floating Interest Fund
Description (if any)
An open ended debt scheme predominantly investing in floating rate instruments
(including fixed rate instruments converted to floating rate exposures using
swaps/derivatives). A relatively high interest rate risk and moderate credit risk
Annualised Portfolio YTM* : 8.06%
Macaulay Duration 0.82 Years
Residual Maturity 6.66 Years
As on (Date) August 31, 2023
YTM Disclaimer: Portfolio Information
Scheme Name : ICICI Prudential Corporate Bond Fund
Description (if any)
An open ended debt scheme predominantly investing in AA+ and above rated
corporate bonds. A relatively high interest rate risk and moderate credit risk
Annualised Portfolio YTM* : 7.83%
Macaulay Duration 1.88 Years
Residual Maturity 3.95 Years
As on (Date) August 31, 2023
77
YTM disclaimers
As per AMFI Best Practices Guidelines Circular No. AMFI/35P/MEM-COR/72/2022-23 dated December 31, 2022 on Standard format for disclosure of portfolio YTM for debt
schemes. Yield of the instrument is disclosed on annualized basis as provided by Valuation agencies. *in case of semi-annual YTM it will be annualized
Macaulay duration is the weighted average term to maturity of the cash flows from a bond. The weight of each cash flow is determined by dividing the present value of the cash flow by the price
YTM Disclaimer: Portfolio Information
Scheme Name : ICICI Prudential Short Term Fund
Description (if any)
An open ended short term debt scheme investing in instruments such that the Macaulay duration of
the portfolio is between 1 Year and 3 Years. A relatively high interest rate risk and moderate credit risk
Annualised Portfolio YTM* : 7.97%
Macaulay Duration 2.43 Years
Residual Maturity 5.35 Years
As on (Date) August 31, 2023
YTM Disclaimer: Portfolio Information
Scheme Name : ICICI Prudential Banking & PSU Debt Fund
Description (if any)
An open ended debt scheme predominantly investing in Debt instruments of banks, Public Sector
Undertakings, Public Financial Institutions and Municipal bonds. A relatively high interest rate risk and
moderate credit risk
Annualised Portfolio YTM* : 7.71%
Macaulay Duration 2.05 Years
Residual Maturity 4.17 Years
As on (Date) August 31, 2023
YTM Disclaimer: Portfolio Information
Scheme Name : ICICI Prudential Medium Term Bond Fund
Description (if any)
An Open Ended medium term debt scheme investing in instruments such that the Macaulay duration of
the portfolio is between 3 Years and 4 Years. The Macaulay duration of the portfolio is 1 Year to 4
years under anticipated adverse situation. A relatively high interest rate risk and moderate credit risk
Annualised Portfolio YTM* : 8.21%
Macaulay Duration 3.18 Years
Residual Maturity 4.98 Years
As on (Date) August 31, 2023
78
YTM disclaimers
As per AMFI Best Practices Guidelines Circular No. AMFI/35P/MEM-COR/72/2022-23 dated December 31, 2022 on Standard format for disclosure of portfolio YTM for debt
schemes. Yield of the instrument is disclosed on annualized basis as provided by Valuation agencies. *in case of semi-annual YTM it will be annualized
Macaulay duration is the weighted average term to maturity of the cash flows from a bond. The weight of each cash flow is determined by dividing the present value of the cash flow by the price
YTM Disclaimer: Portfolio Information
Scheme Name : ICICI Prudential All Seasons Bond Fund
Description (if any)
An open ended dynamic debt scheme investing across duration. A relatively high
interest rate risk and moderate credit risk
Annualised Portfolio YTM* : 7.93%
Macaulay Duration 3.13 Years
Residual Maturity 5.30 Years
As on (Date) August 31, 2023
YTM Disclaimer: Portfolio Information
Scheme Name : ICICI Prudential Bond Fund
Description (if any)
An open ended medium to long term debt scheme Investing in instruments such that the
Macaulay duration of the portfolio is between 4 Years and 7 years. The Macaulay
duration of the portfolio is 1 Year to 7 years under anticipated adverse situation. A
relatively high interest rate risk and moderate credit risk
Annualised Portfolio YTM* : 7.50%
Macaulay Duration 4.13 Years
Residual Maturity 6.52 Years
As on (Date) August 31, 2023
79
YTM disclaimers
As per AMFI Best Practices Guidelines Circular No. AMFI/35P/MEM-COR/72/2022-23 dated December 31, 2022 on Standard format for disclosure of portfolio YTM for debt
schemes. Yield of the instrument is disclosed on annualized basis as provided by Valuation agencies. *in case of semi-annual YTM it will be annualized
Macaulay duration is the weighted average term to maturity of the cash flows from a bond. The weight of each cash flow is determined by dividing the present value of the cash flow by the price
YTM Disclaimer: Portfolio Information
Scheme Name : ICICI Prudential Long Term Bond Fund
Description (if any)
An open-ended debt scheme investing in instruments such that the Macaulay duration
of the portfolio is greater than 7 Years. A relatively high interest rate risk and relatively
low credit risk
Annualised Portfolio YTM* : 7.46%
Macaulay Duration 7.32 Years
Residual Maturity 10.77 Years
As on (Date) August 31, 2023
YTM Disclaimer: Portfolio Information
Scheme Name : ICICI Prudential Gilt Fund
Description (if any)
An open ended debt scheme investing in government securities across maturity. A
relatively high interest rate risk and relatively low credit risk
Annualised Portfolio YTM* : 7.58%
Macaulay Duration 2.56 Years
Residual Maturity 6.26 Years
As on (Date) August 31, 2023
80
Potential Risk Class Matrix
Sr No
1
Scheme Name
ICICI Prudential Medium Term Bond Fund
Position in the Matrix
2 ICICI Prudential All Seasons Bond Fund
3 ICICI Prudential Savings Fund
4 ICICI Prudential Floating Interest Fund
5 ICICI Prudential Corporate Bond Fund
6 ICICI Prudential Banking & PSU Debt Fund
7 ICICI Prudential Short Term Fund
8 ICICI Prudential Bond Fund
9 ICICI Prudential Long Term Bond Fund
10 ICICI Prudential Gilt Fund
11 ICICI Prudential Ultra Short Term Fund
Disclaimer: The potential risk class (PRC) matrix based on interest rate risk and credit risk, is as above:
81
Potential Risk Class Matrix
Disclaimer: The potential risk class (PRC) matrix based on interest rate risk and credit risk, is as above:
Sr No
12
Scheme Name
ICICI Prudential Overnight Fund
Position in the Matrix
13 ICICI Prudential Liquid Fund
14 ICICI Prudential Money Market Fund
15 ICICI Prudential Credit Risk Fund
82
Mutual Fund Disclaimer
ICICI Prudential Freedom SIP (the Facility) including the default monthly SWP payouts do not guarantee, assure, promise or indicate fixed returns/performance of any
schemes of ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund or under SIP or of the withdrawal under the Facility. The Facility is an optional feature that allows initial monthly investments
through SIP in the source scheme, switch to target scheme after a pre-defined tenure and then monthly SWP from the target scheme. The SWP will be processed
either till Dec 2099 or till the units are available in the target scheme, whichever is earlier. The default monthly SWP payout amounts indicates the likely amount that
can be withdrawn. Please read the terms and conditions in the application form before investing or visit www.iciciprumf.com. ICICI Prudential Booster Systematic
Transfer Plan (“Booster STP”) is a facility wherein unit holder(s) can opt to transfer variable amount(s) from designated open ended Scheme(s) of the Fund
[hereinafter referred to as “Source Scheme”] to the designated open-ended Scheme(s) of the Fund [hereinafter referred to as “Target Scheme”] at defined intervals.
The Unitholder would be required to provide a Base Installment Amount that is intended to be transferred to the Target Scheme. The variable amount(s) or actual
amount(s) of transfer to the Target Scheme will be linked to the Equity Valuation Index (hereinafter referred to as EVI). Equity Valuation Index (EVI) is a proprietary
model of ICICI Prudential AMC Ltd. (the AMC) used for assessing overall equity market valuations. The AMC may also use this model for other facilities/features
offered by the AMC
All figures and other data given in this document are dated as of August 31, 2023 unless stated otherwise. The same may or may not be relevant at a future date. The
information shall not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form,
without prior written consent of ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company Limited (the AMC). Prospective investors are advised to consult their own legal, tax
and financial advisors to determine possible tax, legal and other financial implication or consequence of subscribing to the units of ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund
Disclaimer: In the preparation of the material contained in this document, the AMC has used information that is publicly available, including information developed in-
house. Some of the material(s) used in the document may have been obtained from members/persons other than the AMC and/or its affiliates and which may have
been made available to the AMC and/or to its affiliates. Information gathered and material used in this document is believed to be from reliable sources. The AMC
however does not warrant the accuracy, reasonableness and / or completeness of any information. We have included statements / opinions / recommendations in this
document, which contain words, or phrases such as “will”, “expect”, “should”, “believe” and similar expressions or variations of such expressions, that are “forward
looking statements”. Actual results may differ materially from those suggested by the forward looking statements due to risk or uncertainties associated with our
expectations with respect to, but not limited to, exposure to market risks, general economic and political conditions in India and other countries globally, which have
an impact on our services and / or investments, the monetary and interest policies of India, inflation, deflation, unanticipated turbulence in interest rates, foreign
exchange rates, equity prices or other rates or prices etc. ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company Limited (including its affiliates), the Mutual Fund, The Trust
and any of its officers, directors, personnel and employees, shall not liable for any loss, damage of any nature, including but not limited to direct, indirect, punitive,
special, exemplary, consequential, as also any loss of profit in any way arising from the use of this material in any manner. Further, the information contained herein
should not be construed as forecast or promise. The recipient alone shall be fully responsible/are liable for any decision taken on this material
Mutual Fund investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme related documents carefully.

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Monthly Market Outlook | Sept 2023

  • 1. O U T L O O K ONTHLY MARKET SEPTEMBER 2023
  • 2. Global Indices Performance 2 • China markets declined due to continued weak macros and falling global demand for Chinese goods • US, UK & other major Eurozone economies reported slowdown in economic activity which further stoked bearish sentiments Germany - DAX Index; China - SSE Composite Index; France - CAC 40 Index; Japan - Nikkei; Eurozone - Euronext 100; Hong Kong - HangSeng; US - Dow Jones; Singapore - Strait Times; Russia - RTS Index; Indonesia - Jakarta Composite Index; U.K. - FTSE; South Korea - Kospi; Brazil - Ibovespa Sao Paulo Index; Indonesia – Jakarta Composite Index; Switzerland – Swiss Market Index; Taiwan – Taiwan Stock Exchange Corporation; India – S&P BSE Sensex; Data Source: MFI. Returns are absolute returns for the index calculated between July 31, 2023- August 31, 2023. Past performance may or may not sustain in future. MFI Explorer is a tool provided by ICRA Online Ltd. For their standard disclaimer please visit http://www.icraonline.com/legal/standard-disclaimer.html. -8% -5% -5% -4% -3% -3% -3% -3% -3% -3% -2% -2% -2% -2% 0.2% 0.3% -11% -9% -7% -5% -3% -1% 1% 3% 5% Hong Kong China Brazil Singapore UK Eurozone Germany Taiwan South Korea India France US Japan Switzerland Russia Indonesia Absolute Returns – August 2023
  • 3. India – Sectoral Indices Performance 3 All indices are of S&P BSE and carry the prefix of S&P BSE; Abbreviated CD - S&P BSE Consumer Durables; CG - S&P BSE Capital Goods; FMCG - S&P BSE Fast Moving Consumer Goods; HC - S&P BSE Health Care; Infra. - S&P BSE India Infrastructure; IT - S&P BSE Information Technology, Govt: Government, RBI: Reserve Bank of India. Data Source: MFI, BSE ; Returns are absolute returns for the TRI variant of the index (except Infrastructure Index) calculated between July 31, 2023- August 31, 2023. Past performance may or may not sustain in future. The sector(s)/stock(s) mentioned in this slide do not constitute any recommendation and ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund may or may not have any future position in this sector(s)/stock(s). MFI Explorer is a tool provided by ICRA Online Ltd. For their standard disclaimer please visit http://www.icraonline.com/legal/standard-disclaimer.html. • Energy stocks shed points due to intermittent fall in global oil prices & gas subsidy provided by Govt. • Banks ended lower following RBI’s Incremental Cash Reserve Ratio requirement • Tech companies rallied on the back of earnings surprise and positive global cues -5% -4% -4% -3% -2% -1% -1% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 3% 4% 4% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% Oil & Gas Energy Bankex FMCG Financials Realty Metal Auto Power HC Infra CG Telecom IT CD Absolute Returns – August 2023
  • 5. Japan’s Inflation Sea Change 5 Data as of July 31, 2023. Source: Bank of Japan. CPI – Consumer Price Index, y/y – Year on Year. Trimmed Mean – A method of averaging that removes the largest and smallest values/outliers before calculating the mean. After decades of deflation, Japan is finally witnessing rising inflation. This is a welcome change for any economy as it spurs growth 3.3 -1.5 -0.5 0.5 1.5 2.5 3.5 Jul-01 Jul-03 Jul-05 Jul-07 Jul-09 Jul-11 Jul-13 Jul-15 Jul-17 Jul-19 Jul-21 Jul-23 Trimmed Mean CPI (y/y % change) Average: 0.2
  • 6. MSCI World Index & Central Bank Balance Sheets – A Parallel Play 6 Data as Aug 21, 2023. Source – JP Morgan. Fed: Federal Reserve System of US, ECB: European Central Bank, BoJ: Bank of Japan, PBoC: People’s Bank of China. Past performance may or may not sustain in future. Historically, MSCI World Index has moved in tandem with major Central Bank Balance Sheets. While the latter is now falling, markets are yet to realize this 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 Jan-09 Aug-09 Mar-10 Oct-10 May-11 Dec-11 Jul-12 Feb-13 Sep-13 Apr-14 Nov-14 Jun-15 Jan-16 Aug-16 Mar-17 Oct-17 May-18 Dec-18 Jul-19 Feb-20 Sep-20 Apr-21 Nov-21 Jun-22 Jan-23 Aug-23 MSCI World Index Bank Balance Sheets ($ Bn) MSCI World Index V/s Global Central Bank Central Bank Balance Sheet (FED, ECB, BoJ, PBoC, $bn) MSCI World Index Central Banks have started shrinking due to monetary policy tightening. But markets continue to hold-up
  • 7. MSCI EM Index – India bee-lining towards second spot 7 Data as Aug 31, 2023. Source – Morgan Stanley Research. Past performance may or may not sustain in future. India’s share in MSCI Emerging Markets (EM) Index is rising and shares the second spot with Taiwan 15% 39% 30% 15% 0% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% Dec-13 Sep-14 May-15 Jan-16 Oct-16 Jun-17 Feb-18 Oct-18 Jul-19 Mar-20 Nov-20 Aug-21 Apr-22 Dec-22 Aug-23 Weight in MSCI Emerging Market Index India China Taiwan Russia
  • 8. The big becomes bigger! 8 Source: Edelweiss Research, Investopedia (https://www.investopedia.com/top-10-s-and-p-500-stocks-by-index-weight-4843111). Data as of August 31, 2023. Past Performance may or may not sustain in the future. CYTD – Current Year Till Date. Past performance may or may not sustain in future. The sector(s)/stock(s) mentioned in this slide do not constitute any recommendation and ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund may or may not have any future position in this sector(s)/stock(s). The top 5 companies in S&P 500 Index represent ~22% of the total Index Marketcap 14% 22% 10% 15% 20% 25% CY2000 CY2001 CY2002 CY2003 CY2004 CY2005 CY2006 CY2007 CY2008 CY2009 CY2010 CY2011 CY2012 CY2013 CY2014 CY2015 CY2016 CY2017 CY2018 CY2019 CY2020 CYTD 2023 Top 5 companies as a % of S&P 500 Index Marketcap 2023 – Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Nvidia, Alphabet 2000 - GE, Exxon Mobil, Pfizer, Cisco, Citigroup
  • 9. US – Mounting National Debt 9 Data Source: DAM Capital & www.apolloacademy.com/daily-us-government-interest-payments/. For US Debt to GDP Ratio: Data as on Jan 01,2023. For Interest Payment: Data as of Feb 28, 2023. Past performance may or may not sustain in future. GDP: Gross Domestic Product, Bn: Billion, US: United States. US Debt to GDP Levels are on the steady rise which has resulted into ballooning interest payments 0.5 0.8 1.1 1.4 1.7 2.0 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Net Interest Expense per day on Public Debt ($ Bn) 53 122 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 Jan-01 Jan-03 Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13 Jan-15 Jan-17 Jan-19 Jan-21 US Debt to GDP Ratio (%) Jan-23
  • 10. US Valuations outpacing India 10 Source – DAM Capital, NSE. P/E – Price to Earnings. Data as of Aug 31, 2023. Past performance may or may not sustain in future. Nifty 50 Index which was trading at a premium to S&P 500 Index until late last year, has cooled off and is now trading below its long term average 1.7 1.0 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 Aug-13 Aug-14 Aug-15 Aug-16 Aug-17 Aug-18 Aug-19 Aug-20 Aug-21 Aug-22 Aug-23 Nifty 50 P/E to S&P 500 P/E (Premium/Discount) Average: 1.2
  • 11. Indian Valuations outpacing EM 11 Source – JP Morgan. P/E – Price to Earnings. EM: Emerging Markets. Data as of Sep 08, 2023. Past performance may or may not sustain in future. Although relative valuations of India vis-à-vis other emerging markets have cooled off since last year, India continues to trade at a premium 2.1 1.8 Average: 1.5 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.2 Feb-13 Jun-13 Oct-13 Feb-14 Jun-14 Oct-14 Feb-15 Jun-15 Oct-15 Feb-16 Jun-16 Oct-16 Feb-17 Jun-17 Oct-17 Feb-18 Jun-18 Oct-18 Feb-19 Jun-19 Oct-19 Feb-20 Jun-20 Oct-20 Feb-21 Jun-21 Oct-21 Feb-22 Jun-22 Oct-22 Feb-23 Jun-23 MSCI India P/E – MSCI EM P/E MSCI India - MSCI EM (12m Forward PE) Long Term Average Sep-23
  • 12. Adding more SIX to the ‘BRICS’ 12 Data Source: www.newsonair.gov.in UAE – United Arab Emirates. . Map source: mapchart.net.Map not to scale. This map has been used for design and representational purpose only, it does not depict the geographical boundaries of the country. These do not conform to the external boundaries of India recognized by the Survey of India. Currently, the five-member grouping is home to 40% of the world’s population contributing 26% of the Global GDP. But with the new six members (BRICS +6) GDP share will jump to 30% with a share of population of 46% EXISTING MEMBERS NEW MEMBERS BRAZIL RUSSIA INDIA CHINA SOUTH AFRICA SAUDI ARABIA EGYPT IRAN UAE ETHIOPIA ARGENTINA
  • 13. India Macro Trends – Deep Dive
  • 14. Sprint of Indian GDP 14 Data as on August 31,2023 is considered. GDP: Gross Domestic Product, FY: Financial Year, YoY: Year on year. Source –Ministry Of Statistics & Programme Implementation. Prints of GDP Growth for Q1FY24 came in higher at 7.8% (v/s 6.1 % in last quarter) GDP C I G X-M Private Consumption Gross Investment Government Spending Net Exports % share in GDP 57 35 10 20.9, 27.3 Share in Q1FY24 GDP % YoY change 5.9 8.0 -0.7 7.7, 10.0 v/s Q1FY23 GDP
  • 15. Three aspects of GDP 15 GDP: Gross Domestic Product. Steady growth of GDP is a combined effect of: 02 03 01 01. Govt. actions in force 02. Resilient Business activities 03. Positive Consumer Sentiments
  • 16. 1..2..3… Action: Govt. 16 Data as on July 31,2023. Source: Spark Capital. CY: Calendar Year, Bn: Billion.7M: 7 Months, Capex: Capital Expenditure. Significant capex spends by Govt. is boosting infrastructure build up in the country 2450 4092 5635 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7M CY 13 7M CY 14 7M CY 15 7M CY 16 7M CY 17 7M CY 18 7M CY 19 7M CY 20 7M CY 21 7M CY 22 7M CY 23 Capex (INR Bn) Average: Rs 2210 Bn Industry Bifurcation of the Govt’s Capex Spend (INR Bn) Particulars 7M CY 21 7M CY 22 7M CY 23 Roadways 715 1074 1,583 Railways 965 944 1,321 Defense 832 913 908 Water 148 430 469 Housing 76 111 103
  • 17. Assessing Business Landscapes 17 Data as on March 31,2023 is considered. Source: RBI (https://www.rbi.org.in/Scripts/PublicationsView.aspx?id=20650) RBI : Reserve Bank of India. Demand recovery and improving consumer confidence has resulted in corporate utilizations better than pre-pandemic 76.1 69.1 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 Mar-08 Sep-08 Mar-09 Sep-09 Mar-10 Sep-10 Mar-11 Sep-11 Mar-12 Sep-12 Mar-13 Sep-13 Mar-14 Sep-14 Mar-15 Sep-15 Mar-16 Sep-16 Mar-17 Sep-17 Mar-18 Sep-18 Mar-19 Sep-19 Mar-20 Sep-20 Mar-21 Sep-21 Mar-22 Sep-22 Mar-23 India Manufacturing Capacity Utilization Levels (%) 76.3
  • 18. 30.0 50.0 70.0 90.0 110.0 130.0 Dec-19 Sep-20 Jun-21 Mar-22 Dec-22 Consumer Sentiments Index of Consumer Sentiments: Rural Index of Consumer Sentiments: Urban Jul-23 Monitoring Consumer Sentiments 18 Data as on July 31, 2023 is considered. Source: JP Morgan. Past performance may or may not sustain in future. Synergies of Government Spending + Pick up in business activity has resulted in recovery in consumer sentiments 2,573 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 Dec-19 Sep-20 Jun-21 Mar-22 Dec-22 Hiring Trends Naukri Jobspeak Index Average Average: 2369 Jul-23 Hiring activity running ahead of pre-covid levels may continue to uplift consumer sentiments in future Despite slow rural recovery, positive rural sentiments are leading the race
  • 19. Looking at near term picture… Which phase is Indian Equity Market in?
  • 20. Market goes through Phases… 20 Boom Phase • Lehman Crisis 2008 • Dot com burst – 2001 Burst Phase • Equity Markets in 2013-16 • Equity Markets in 2009-11 • Debt Accrual Schemes in 2019 • Equity Markets in 2020 Good Time to Invest • Equity Markets in 2011 & 2017 • Equity Markets currently • Real Estate in 2013 • e-Commerce in 2014 • Bitcoin in 2017 • Equity in 2007 & 2000 Bubble Phase • Equity Markets in 2012 Boring Phase We are here!
  • 21. Why are we in a Boom Phase? 21 Indicators Current Status Fit for Boom Phase Market Returns High Market Valuations Rising Sentiments Positive Earnings Growth High Production Growth High
  • 22. Boom Phase: Markets yielding higher returns 22 Markets have rebounded at a faster pace in last 5 months Source : MFIE. Data as on August 31, 2023. Past performance may or may not sustain in future. 8.4 14.8 23.8 28.4 8.9 (0.6) (0.3) 2.0 (6.9) 0.7 -9 -4 2 7 12 17 22 27 Nifty 50 NIFTY Large Midcap 250 Nifty Midcap 150 Nifty Smallcap 250 S&P BSE Sensex Market Indices Absolute Returns (%) 1Yr Returns on Aug-23 1Yr Returns on Mar-23
  • 23. Boom Phase: Valuations on the higher end 23 Equity Market Valuations though have slightly moderated on monthly basis but continue to trade above long term average Source : NSE. Data as on August 31, 2023. Past performance may or may not sustain in future. P/E – Price to Earning, P/B – Price to Book. 24 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 Jan-00 Jan-03 Jan-06 Jan-09 Jan-12 Jan-15 Jan-18 Jan-21 Nifty 50 P/E Nifty 50 P/E Average Average: 21 4.9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Jan-00 Aug-01 Mar-03 Oct-04 May-06 Dec-07 Jul-09 Feb-11 Sep-12 Apr-14 Nov-15 Jun-17 Jan-19 Aug-20 Mar-22 Nifty 50 P/B Nifty 50 P/B Average Average: 4 Aug-23 Aug-23
  • 24. Boom Phase: Valuations on the higher end 24 India’s valuations cooled off between Sep-22 & Mar-23 Data as on Aug 31,2023. Source : MFIE. MFI Explorer is a tool provided by ICRA Online Ltd. For their standard disclaimer please visit http://www.icraonline.com/legal/standard- disclaimer.html. Past performance may or may not sustain in future. For indices considered for each country, please refer to slide 2 disclaimers. 29% 27% 22% 18% 18% 16% 15% 11% 8% 8% 8% 4% 3% -3% -6% -7% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% Germany France Eurozone Hong Kong Taiwan US South Korea UK China Switzerland Japan Singapore India Indonesia Russia Brazil Absolute Returns (Sep 30, 2022-Mar 31, 2023) However, valuations are again on the rise… 16% 14% 10% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 2% 0% 0% 0% -1% -3% -5% -10% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% Japan Brazil India Russia Taiwan US South Korea Indonesia Germany Switzerland France Eurozone Singapore UK China Hong Kong Absolute Returns (Mar 31, 2023-August 31, 2023)
  • 25. Boom Phase: Valuations on the higher end 25 Share of Market Cap – (as a % of Total Market Cap) Source: NSE. Data as on Aug 31,2023. Past performance may or may not sustain in future. Red indicates high valuations, Amber indicates neutral valuations and Green indicates attractive valuations Period Large Cap Mid Cap Small Cap 2003 90.4 7.3 2.3 2004 87.1 9.3 3.6 2005 83.0 11.3 5.6 2006 81.9 11.5 6.7 2007 77.7 13.2 9.1 2008 82.7 10.9 6.4 2009 79.8 12.3 7.9 2010 78.0 12.5 9.4 2011 79.8 12.1 8.1 2012 77.9 13.4 8.7 2013 80.3 12.4 7.2 2014 76.8 14.1 9.1 2015 73.8 15.2 11.0 2016 72.9 15.3 11.8 2017 68.1 17.3 14.6 2018 72.0 16.3 11.7 Dec-19 74.9 15.6 9.5 Dec-20 74.2 15.5 10.2 Dec-21 68.7 16.8 14.5 Dec-22 69.2 16.1 14.7 Mar-23 68.9 16.4 14.6 Jun-23 67.5 16.9 15.6 Aug-23 64.7 17.7 17.6
  • 26. 107.7 50 70 90 110 130 150 170 Aug-05 Aug-06 Aug-07 Aug-08 Aug-09 Aug-10 Aug-11 Aug-12 Aug-13 Aug-14 Aug-15 Aug-16 Aug-17 Aug-18 Aug-19 Aug-20 Aug-21 Aug-22 Aug-23 Aggressively Invest in Equities Neutral Incremental Money to Debt Book Partial Profits Invest in Equities Equity Valuation Index 26 Our Equity Valuations Index continues to remain in the neutral zone Equity Valuation index is calculated by assigning equal weights to Price-to-Earnings (PE), Price-to-Book (PB), G-Sec*PE and Market Cap to GDP ratio and any other factor which the AMC may add/delete from time to time.. G-Sec – Government Securities. GDP – Gross Domestic Product, Data as on August 31, 2023 has been considered. Equity Valuation Index (EVI) is a proprietary model of ICICI Prudential AMC Ltd. (the AMC) used for assessing overall equity market valuations. The AMC may also use this model for other facilities/features offered by the AMC.
  • 27. Boom Phase: Positive Investor Sentiments 27 Consistent SIP flows driving the buying spree of Mutual Fund houses are a reflection of positive sentiments, however excluding SIPs flows are muted Data as on August 31, 2023. Data Source: DAM Capital and JP Morgan. For Mutual Fund Flows: Data till July 31, 2023 is considered. 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 160,000 Apr-20 Feb-21 Dec-21 Oct-22 SIP Collections (INR Mn) Aug-23 (300,000) (200,000) (100,000) 0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20 Jan-21 Apr-21 Jul-21 Oct-21 Jan-22 Apr-22 Jul-22 Oct-22 Jan-23 Apr-23 Jul-23 Mutual Fund Flows (Ex- SIP)- INR Bn
  • 28. Boom Phase: Positive Investor Sentiments 28 With sustained momentum of Cumulative FII flows, India is gaining a much bigger share of regional flows Data as on September 11,2023. For Regional Flows of FIIs: Data as on August 31,2023. Data Source: JP Morgan. ASEAN: ASEAN is an organization of 10 member countries : Brunei, Burma (Myanmar), Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam. ASEAN ex SG: ASEAN countries excluding Singapore. FII: Foreign Institutional Investor, Bn: Billion 5,500 7,500 9,500 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 20,000 22,000 Dec-19 Mar-20 Jun-20 Sep-20 Dec-20 Mar-21 Jun-21 Sep-21 Dec-21 Mar-22 Jun-22 Sep-22 Dec-22 Mar-23 Jun-23 Sep-23 FII Flows (INR Bn) Nifty 50 Index Markets tracking FII Flows Cumulative FII flows (Rs. Bn, RHS) Nifty 50 Index (24) (20) (16) (12) (8) (4) - 4 8 12 16 Apr-21 Jun-21 Aug-21 Oct-21 Dec-21 Feb-22 Apr-22 Jun-22 Aug-22 Oct-22 Dec-22 Feb-23 Apr-23 Jun-23 Aug-23 Regional Flows of FIIs (Rs. Bn.) India ASEAN ex SG Korea Taiwan
  • 29. Boom Phase: Positive Investor Sentiments 29 Increasing gross trading volumes with declining share of Institutional investors signify rising retail participation Data as on September 08, 2023. For Put- Call Ratio: Data as on July 31,2023. Data Source: JP Morgan. FII: Foreign Institutional Investor, DII: Domestic Institutional Investor Bn: Billion. - 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 Jan-13 Sep-13 May-14 Jan-15 Sep-15 May-16 Jan-17 Sep-17 May-18 Jan-19 Sep-19 May-20 Jan-21 Sep-21 May-22 Jan-23 Sep-23 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% 40.0% Gross Trading Volumes (INR Bn) Share of FII & DII Share in Trading Volume Gross Trading Value (INR bn) Institutional share in turnover (FII + DII) Declining Put-Call ratio warrants for positive investor sentiments 0.70 0.56 0.44 0.48 0.52 0.56 0.60 0.64 0.68 0.72 Jan-21 Mar-21 May-21 Jul-21 Sep-21 Nov-21 Jan-22 Mar-22 May-22 Jul-22 Sep-22 Nov-22 Jan-23 Mar-23 May-23 Jul-23 Put-Call Ratio
  • 30. -1.1 14.8 -19.0 -15.7 41.0 59.0 41.9 12.7 8.3 9.6 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Jun-19 Dec-19 Jun-20 Dec-20 Jun-21 Dec-21 Jun-22 Dec-22 Jul-23 Aug-23 1 Yr Earnings Growth (Y-o-Y %) 1Year EPS Growth (%) Boom Phase: Earnings Trajectory Climbing Up 30 Data as on August 31, 2023. Data Source: Crisil Research and NSE, Earnings for Nifty 50 Companies have been considered. Returns for 1 year are calculated on absolute basis and more than 1 year are calculated on CAGR basis. Covid- Coronavirus Disease 2019. Corporate Earnings continue to gain traction at levels ahead of Pre-covid results 5.9 6.8 -10.5 -1.6 6.9 15.8 33.3 33.9 29.7 17.0 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Jun-19 Dec-19 Jun-20 Dec-20 Jun-21 Dec-21 Jun-22 Dec-22 Jul-23 Aug-23 2 Yrs Earnings Growth (Y-o-Y %) 2Year EPS Growth (%) Gaining momentum of GDP bodes well for corporate earnings growth
  • 31. 7.3 7.2 5.3 5.2 4.8 4.8 3.7 3.5 3.4 3 2.9 2.8 2.1 2 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.3 -0.1 -3.2 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 Saudi Arabia India Indonesia Argentina Spain EU Australia Mexico Canada Brazil China Italy South Africa South Korea UK France United States Japan Germany Russia FY23 GDP Growth (%) Boom Phase: India’s GDP shining bright 31 Data as on March 31,2023. Data Source: ICICI Securities. GDP: Gross Domestic Product, UK: United Kingdom, YoY: Year on Year and EU: European Union. Percentages shown above have been calculated on Year on Year basis. The G20 or Group of 20 is an intergovernmental forum comprising 19 countries and the European Union. Indian Economy is emerging as one of the fastest growing economy amongst the G20 Nations
  • 32. Summary & Outlook 32 • While globally there is a shift in macro trends, India continues to hold its Macro Fort Steady • With sound fundamentals and multiple structural reforms underway, the economy is at the cusp of further up- cycle in the long run • Favorable demographics and demand too bodes well for the economy • Long term structural story remains intact albeit with near term volatility owing to global growth-inflation dynamics and evolving geo-political factors and uncertainties • Post March-23, Indian equity market valuations have become richer with upbeat sentiments on growth and profitability • We believe that markets are in a boom phase and prefer large caps given the recent outperformance of mid and small cap stocks • We recommend investing in diversified equity schemes having flexibility to move across market caps/ sectors /themes coupled with Hybrid schemes that allocate across different asset classes with an aim to navigate volatility The sector(s)/stock(s) mentioned in this slide do not constitute any recommendation and ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund may or may not have any future position in this sector(s)/stock(s).
  • 34. India’s Fixed Income Markets : Then & Now Post 2014, India’s business cycle never entered expansion cycle mainly due to: 1. Impairment of financial sector balance sheets due to outflow of large corporate loans and 2. Real estate loans in the NBFC balance sheet. Both kept the banking balance sheet distressed and effective loan rates high for the borrowers despite RBI bringing down interest rates in the pre-demonetization period. Also, before 2018 monetary conditions remained tight due to RBI’s inflation targeting framework. As a result, capacity utilization started trailing and credit growth started falling. Residential real estate market too saw an inventory built up. However, things changed post-pandemic as 1. RBI changed the pace of monetary easing and 2. the fiscal balance sheet of the government started to expand to support growth. Due to Fiscal and Monetary support, economy moved from slow phase of growth to the expansion cycle. NBFC: Non Banking Financial Companies
  • 35. 35 In 2018-2020 phase RBI used to focus on inflation for monetary action. And when economy moved into slower growth resulting into lower inflation, RBI had the room to cut interest rates. GROWTH High Inflation Low Inflation High Growth Low Growth INFLATION Slow Growth Phase of Economic Cycle: 2018 to 2020 Phases of Economic Cycle
  • 36. 36 GROWTH High Growth – Low Inflation Low Growth – Low Inflation High Growth – High Inflation Low Growth – High Inflation INFLATION The above is based on various calculations and assumptions. Actual scenarios may vary. No Policy Action Rate Cut Rate Hike No Policy Action Now, RBI has shifted its focus from inflation only to interplay between growth and inflation. Hence, going forward for policy action, trajectory of inflation & growth would become important. Currently, growth being strong and inflation in RBI’s tolerable zone, possibility of rate action is low Phases of Economic Cycle and Policy Action
  • 37. 37 Recovery Late Cycle Expansion Slowdown Steep Inverted Flattish Low We are Here Economic Cycle Shape of the Yield Curve Phases of Economic Cycle and Yield Curves
  • 38. 38 The capacity utilization levels have gone up for first time in the last 9 years. This is evident in various sectors like power, cement, steel where the overall capacity utilizations are at a much higher point. 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 Mar-08 Sep-08 Mar-09 Sep-09 Mar-10 Sep-10 Mar-11 Sep-11 Mar-12 Sep-12 Mar-13 Sep-13 Mar-14 Sep-14 Mar-15 Sep-15 Mar-16 Sep-16 Mar-17 Sep-17 Mar-18 Sep-18 Mar-19 Sep-19 Mar-20 Sep-20 Mar-21 Sep-21 Mar-22 Sep-22 Mar-23 All India Capacity Utilization Levels Data as on March 31,2023. Source: RBI; https://www.rbi.org.in/Scripts/PublicationsView.aspx?id=20650. Economic Cycle : All India Capacity Utilization Levels
  • 39. 39 4% 8% 12% 16% 20% Jul-14 Jul-15 Jul-16 Jul-17 Jul-18 Jul-19 Jul-20 Jul-21 Jul-22 Jul-23 Non Food Credit Growth (Y-o-Y %) Credit growth has moved up from an average of 8-10% to an average of 14-16%, which corroborates well with the mid cycle numbers. Data as on July 31,2023. Source: RBI; https://www.rbi.org.in/Scripts/PublicationsView.aspx?id=20650; YOY- Year on Year. Economic Cycle : Rise in Credit Growth (Y-O-Y%)
  • 40. 40 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Q1-2008 Q3-2008 Q1-2009 Q3-2009 Q1-2010 Q3-2010 Q1-2011 Q3-2011 Q1-2012 Q3-2012 Q1-2013 Q3-2013 Q1-2014 Q3-2014 Q1-2015 Q3-2015 Q1-2016 Q3-2016 Q1-2017 Q3-2017 Q1-2018 Q3-2018 Q1-2019 Q3-2019 Q1-2020 Q3-2020 Q1-2021 Q3-2021 Q1-2022 Q3-2022 Q1-2023 Q3-2023* Residential Overhang (in Months) The inventory overhang in the residential real estate has gone down substantially. The number of months of inventory is close to where it used to be in the last strong real estate cycle i.e. 2009-2011 Data as on Dec 31,2022. Data Source: CRISIL Research. Q: Quarter . Inventory Overhang is an estimate of the amount of time it would take to sell all of the current listings in an area, provided that there are no new listings Economic Cycle : Residential Inventory Overhang
  • 41. 41 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 Jun-2012 Jun-2013 Jun-2014 Jun-2015 Jun-2016 Jun-2017 Jun-2018 Jun-2019 Jun-2020 Jun-2021 Jun-2022 Jun-2023 Nominal vs Real WALR (%) Nominal weighted avg. lending rate (WALR) Real WALR During 2016-2020, most banks did not have their balance sheets capitalized which reflected in overall high weighted average lending rates for the borrowers. Currently, the effective loan rates have come down despite rake hikes due to healthy banking balance sheets Data Source: CRISIL Research. Weighted Average Lending Rate is the interest rate charged on all the outstanding loans of banks Economic Cycle : Real Weighted Average Lending Rate (WALR)
  • 42. 42 4.1 3.9 3.5 3.5 3.4 4.6 9.2 6.7 6.4 5.9 - - 0.5 1.8 1.8 1.5 1.0 0.4 - 0.5 2.6 3.1 3.5 2.4 2.4 2.6 4.1 2.7 2.8 3.2 - 0.7 0.7 6.7 7.7 8.2 7.7 7.7 8.7 14.2 9.8 9.2 9.6 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24BE State off-budget (UDAY bonds) State govt. fiscal deficit Centre off-budget (FCI IEBR, GOI Services bonds, NSSF loans, Air India, Recap Bonds) Centre reported fiscal deficit The combined fiscal deficit of centre, state and center off budget has gone up as compared to FY2015-20. In FY2021- 22, it was required to run a high fiscal deficit to support the private sector. The fiscal deficit looks high even now and on a total basis there is hardly been any consolidation between the 3 years. Data Source: CRISIL Research. FY: Financial Year. FCI: Food Corporation of India, IEBR: Internal & Extra Budgetary Resources, GOI: Government of India, NSSF: National Small Savings Fund, UDAY: Ujjwal DISCOM Assurance Yojana. BE: Budgeted Estimate Economic Cycle : Fiscal Deficit Elevated v/s Pre-Pandemic Levels
  • 43. 43  There are a lot of catalysts which are at play like government spending's, fiscal and monetary support, improved balance sheets for corporates and banks etc. which has helped India to move into the mid stage of business cycle.  In this phase, economic growth may continue to remain strong without inflation sustainably breaching the RBI’s tolerance band.  Effectively, this phase is a neutral zone for the RBI as the economy can thrive without policy action.  We will, however, keep a watch on the forward looking data as any shift in the growth trajectory could change the RBI’s status quo.  We continue to remain positive on accrual assets due to stable macros and elevated interest rates.  Floating rate bonds too, may continue to see improved demand for their attractive spreads.  We recommend shorter-duration schemes and also dynamic duration schemes as they can actively manage instruments with various credit ratings and actively manage duration to handle interest-rate fluctuations. India Outlook
  • 44. Business Cycle in USA 44 USA is in a different cycle altogether, where it has already seen the start of a late cycle. The response to COVID in terms of fiscal and monetary stimulus was much aggressive compared to India which resulted in growth coming back faster in USA compared to other economies. But, this resulted in overheating of economy and hyper-inflation as a by-product. This difference in business cycle is the main reason why USA Fed is more aggressive than RBI, resulting in slowdown in growth USA: United State of America. Covid: Coronavirus Disease
  • 45. 45 Recovery Late Cycle Expansion Slowdown Steep Inverted Flattish Low USA is Here Economic Cycle Shape of the Yield Curve USA: United State of America. Economic Cycles and the Yield Curves
  • 46. 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Jan-20 Mar-20 May-20 Jul-20 Sep-20 Nov-20 Jan-21 Mar-21 May-21 Jul-21 Sep-21 Nov-21 Jan-22 Mar-22 May-22 Jul-22 Sep-22 Nov-22 Jan-23 Mar-23 May-23 Jul-23 Sep-23 Rate Hike Journey of US Fed vs RBI US Fed - Funds Rate (Upper) RBI - Repo Rate 46 As the business cycle is more advanced in the US, US Fed has been more aggressive compared to RBI Data as on Sep 08,2023. Source: FED Reserve and RBI. US FED: United State of America Federal Reserve; RBI: Reserve Bank of India. Rate Hikes by RBI and US Fed
  • 47. 47 The gap is at a historical low, reflecting the difference in aggression between both central banks 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Aug-08 Feb-09 Aug-09 Feb-10 Aug-10 Feb-11 Aug-11 Feb-12 Aug-12 Feb-13 Aug-13 Feb-14 Aug-14 Feb-15 Aug-15 Feb-16 Aug-16 Feb-17 Aug-17 Feb-18 Aug-18 Feb-19 Aug-19 Feb-20 Aug-20 Feb-21 Aug-21 Feb-22 Aug-22 Feb-23 Aug-23 10 Year G-Sec (%) – USA vs India India G-Sec 10 Year US G-Sec 10 Year Data as on Aug 31,2023. Source: FED Reserve and RBI. US: United State of America; G-Sec: Government Securities. Fed: Federal Reserve System Gap between US and India 10 Year
  • 48. 48 -3.75 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 Jul-14 Jul-15 Jul-16 Jul-17 Jul-18 Jul-19 Jul-20 Jul-21 Jul-22 Jul-23 Capex (% change, year ago) The impact of FED's rate increase was evident in some areas like capex. The capex in the USA has turned lower compared to the normal period. Data as on July 31,2023. Source: FED Reserve. US: United State of America; Capex – Capital Expenditure. USA : Capex
  • 49. 49 -0.80 -0.60 -0.40 -0.20 0.00 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Jul-21 Aug-21 Sep-21 Oct-21 Nov-21 Dec-21 Jan-22 Feb-22 Mar-22 Apr-22 May-22 Jun-22 Jul-22 Aug-22 Sep-22 Oct-22 Nov-22 Dec-22 Jan-23 Feb-23 Mar-23 Apr-23 May-23 Jun-23 Jul-23 Manufacturing & Services Purchasing Managers Index Services Manufacturing Average Activity Index Activity Index Sentiment indicators like ISM Manufacturing and ISM Services are also trending lower. Manufacturing continues to remain in the contractionary zone for the last 8 months. Data as on July 31,2023. Source: FED Reserve. US: United State of America; ISM: The Institute of Supply Management. USA : Purchasing Managers Index
  • 50. 50 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Aug-21 Feb-22 Aug-22 Feb-23 Aug-23 CAI Sector Breakdown HOUSING OTHER MANUFACTURING CONSUMER LABOR Some of the activity indicators are also showing slowdown in the USA, particularly on the manufacturing side. Data as on Aug 31,2023. Source: FED Reserve. US: United State of America. USA : Current Activity Index (CAI) Sector Breakdown
  • 51. 51 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 Mar-00 Mar-01 Mar-02 Mar-03 Mar-04 Mar-05 Mar-06 Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22 Mar-23 USA CAD (% of GDP) US CAD -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 Mar-00 Mar-01 Mar-02 Mar-03 Mar-04 Mar-05 Mar-06 Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22 Mar-23 USA Fiscal Deficit (% of GDP) US Fiscal Deficit USA's Fiscal Deficit remains elevated along with high Current Account Deficit which continues to pose challenges for the economy. Data as on March 31,2023. Source: FED Reserve. US: United State of America; GDP: Gross Domestic Product. CAD: Current Account Deficit USA : Current Account Deficit and Fiscal Deficit
  • 52. 52 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Aug-05 Aug-06 Aug-07 Aug-08 Aug-09 Aug-10 Aug-11 Aug-12 Aug-13 Aug-14 Aug-15 Aug-16 Aug-17 Aug-18 Aug-19 Aug-20 Aug-21 Aug-22 Aug-23 Wage Growth (%) Labor market has been a lagging indicator and wage growth still remains strong. Though we have started to see some signs of unemployment increasing. Data as on Aug 31,2023. Source: FED Reserve. US: United State of America. USA : Wage Growth
  • 53. 53 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 1Y 2Y 3Y 4Y 5Y 6Y 7Y 8Y 9Y 10Y 20Y 30Y US Treasury Inflation Indexed Curve (Mid YTM %) Last 6M 2Y The real yields have started to invert which reflects that the fixed income markets are trying to price in the slower growth rate going forward. Data as on Aug 31,2023. Source: FED Reserve. US: United State of America; Last: Aug 31, 2023; M: Months Ago: Y: Years Ago. USA : Real Yield Curve
  • 55. 55 -70.0 -60.0 -50.0 -40.0 -30.0 -20.0 -10.0 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 1-Jun-23 6-Jun-23 12-Jun-23 17-Jun-23 22-Jun-23 27-Jun-23 2-Jul-23 7-Jul-23 12-Jul-23 18-Jul-23 23-Jul-23 29-Jul-23 3-Aug-23 8-Aug-23 13-Aug-23 18-Aug-23 23-Aug-23 28-Aug-23 Cumulative deviation of monsoon from monsoon (%) 2% 37% 43% 14% 4% 6% 27% 31% 22% 14% Large Deficit (-99% to - 60%) Deficit (-59% to - 20%) Normal (-19% to +19%) Excess (+20% to +59%) Large excess (>60%) Spatial distribution % share of districts in Normal/ deficits/ excess 27-Aug-23 27-Aug-22 Monsoons in India has deteriorated substantially especially in the month of August. There is a risk that if monsoons don’t improve now then the rice crop yield can fall because of lack of water supply. Source – Morgan Stanley Research. India : Monsoon
  • 56. 56 2.9 4 5 5.9 7.9 10.2 29% 0.7 1.1 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.1 25% 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 5 yr CAGR Unsecured credit system (INR trn) Personal loans Credit cards 1.31 1.87 2.34 2.59 2.85 3.15 19% 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 5 yr CAGR MFI system level(INR trn) Over the last 5 years, the unsecured rate in the system has grown by ~29% and the MFI credit has grown at the pace of ~19%. Unless income growth in the lower middle and the lower strata of the population picks up, there is a risk that the credit parameters for this pace will worsen and can turn into NPAs. Source – Morgan Stanley Research. NPA: Non-Performing Assets; Trn: Trillion; CAGR: Compounded Annual Growth Rate; MFI: Micro Finance Institutions. India : Unsecured Lending
  • 57. 57 - 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 Dec-19 Mar-20 Jun-20 Sep-20 Dec-20 Mar-21 Jun-21 Sep-21 Dec-21 Mar-22 Jun-22 Sep-22 Dec-22 Mar-23 Jun-23 Motorcycle sales indexed to Dec-2019 Motorcycles Premium segment (200cc and above) Motor cycles (<125cc) - 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 Dec-19 Mar-20 Jun-20 Sep-20 Dec-20 Mar-21 Jun-21 Sep-21 Dec-21 Mar-22 Jun-22 Sep-22 Dec-22 Mar-23 Jun-23 PV sales indexed to Dec-2019 Premium cars Micro and compact cars COVID has impacted the lower strata of the society more, which is visible in the consumption trends of two wheeler and four wheeler sales Data as on June 30,2023. Source – Morgan Stanley Research. PV: Private Vehicles. Covid: Coronavirus Disease 2019 India : Divergent Consumption Trends
  • 58. 58 Our model remains cautious on long-duration and recommends tactical exposure, as the term premium remains modest coupled with an expectation of interest rate pause for an extended period KEY TAKEAWAYS Data as on August 31, 2023. Debt Valuation Index considers WPI, CPI, Sensex returns, Gold returns and Real estate returns over G-Sec yield, Current Account Balance, Fiscal Balance, Credit Growth and Crude Oil Movement for calculation. Debt Valuation Index is a proprietary model of ICICI Prudential AMC Ltd. (the AMC) used for assessing over all debt valuations. The AMC may also use this model for other facilities/features offered by the AMC. 2.71 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Apr 2014 Aug 2015 Dec 2016 Apr 2018 Aug 2019 Dec 2020 Apr 2022 Aug 2023 Very Cautious Aggressive Highly Aggressive Cautious Moderate Case for low to moderate duration – In-House Debt Duration Valuation Index
  • 59. 59 Scheme Modified Duration (Years) Dec 2021 August 2023 Difference ICICI Prudential Liquid Fund 0.1 0.1 0.0 ICICI Prudential Money Market Fund 0.2 0.4 0.2 ICICI Prudential Ultra Short Term Fund 0.2 0.4 0.2 ICICI Prudential Savings Fund 0.8 0.7 -0.1 ICICI Prudential Floating Interest Fund 1.6 0.8 -0.8 ICICI Prudential Credit Risk Fund 1.6 1.8 0.2 ICICI Prudential Short Term Fund 1.6 2.3 0.7 ICICI Prudential Corporate Bond Fund 2.7 1.8 -0.9 ICICI Prudential Banking & PSU Debt Fund 3.9 1.9 -2.0 ICICI Prudential Medium Term Bond Fund 2.5 3.0 0.5 ICICI Prudential Bond Fund 4.2 4.0 -0.2 ICICI Prudential All Seasons Bond Fund 2.3 3.0 0.7 ICICI Prudential Long Term Bond Fund 8.3 7.1 -1.2 ICICI Prudential Gilt Fund 7.0 2.5 -4.5 Data as on August 31, 2023. Our Current Portfolio Positioning – Exposure to Low to Moderate Duration
  • 60. 60 Scheme Name Cash* + Gsec^ AAA/A1+ AA Below AA- YTM Modified Duration (% Holding) (% Holding) (% Holding) ICICI Prudential Overnight Fund 100.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 6.66% 1 Days ICICI Prudential Liquid Fund 17.99% 81.53% 0.47% 0.00% 7.04% 39 Days ICICI Prudential Money Market Fund 17.62% 82.38% 0.00% 0.00% 7.33% 162 Days ICICI Prudential Ultra Short Term Fund 16.29% 70.41% 13.30% 0.00% 7.48% 145 Days ICICI Prudential Savings Fund 30.51% 65.85% 3.63% 0.00% 7.67% 253 Days ICICI Prudential Floating Interest Fund 62.84% 30.05% 7.11% 0.00% 8.06% 281 Days ICICI Prudential Corporate Bond Fund 30.53% 69.47% 0.00% 0.00% 7.83% 1.8 Yrs ICICI Prudential Short Term Fund 41.47% 44.51% 14.02% 0.00% 7.97% 2.3 Yrs ICICI Prudential Banking & PSU Debt Fund 29.01% 70.99% 0.00% 0.00% 7.71% 1.9 Yrs ICICI Prudential Medium Term Bond Fund 40.63% 16.05% 43.32% 0.00% 8.21% 3.0 Yrs ICICI Prudential Credit Risk Fund# 29.45% 15.24% 41.51% 8.75% 8.35% 1.8 Yrs ICICI Prudential All Seasons Bond Fund 59.08% 15.80% 25.13% 0.00% 7.93% 3.0 Yrs Data as on August 31, 2023. The Yield to Maturity (YTM) mentioned is based on scheme portfolios dated August 31, 2023. YTM is the rate of return anticipated on a bond if held until maturity. This should not be considered as an indication of the returns that maybe generated by the scheme. The securities bought by the scheme may or may not be held till their respective maturities. Past performance may or may not be sustained in future, *Includes TREPS & Net Current Assets, ^ Includes Treasury Bills, # - Excludes REITs and InvITs which stands at 5.06%. Spread Assets Our Current Portfolio Positioning – Exposure to spread assets
  • 61. 61 Actively managed portfolios should be preferred Mid-Cycle means fixed income is at an attractive space Interest rates are expected to remain in a range and RBI can afford for a elongated pause Floating rate bond call in various portfolios has played out well Short Duration up to 3-4 years looks attractive Tactical trading in long duration Outlook & Summary
  • 62. 62 Long-Term (More than 3 Years) • IPRU All Seasons Bond Fund Parking Option (3-12 Months) • IPRU Ultra Short Term • IPRU Savings Fund Short Term (1-3 Years) • IPRU Short Term Fund • IPRU Corporate Bond Fund • IPRU Banking & PSU Debt Fund Our Key Recommendations IPRU: ICICI Prudential
  • 63. Investment Approach and Scheme Recommendations
  • 64. Investment Playbook for 2023 – An era of Multiple Asset Classes 64 Category Outlook Our View Scheme Recommendations Equity Valuations moderated but remains in NEUTRAL zone. Long term ‘POSITIVE’ IPRU Business Cycle Fund, IPRU Flexicap Fund, IPRU Focused Equity Fund, IPRU Value Discovery Fund Asset Allocation/ Hybrid Volatility expected to persist IPRU Balanced Advantage Fund, IPRU Multi-Asset Fund, IPRU Equity & Debt Fund Fixed Income High yields making the space attractive IPRU Ultra Short Term Fund, IPRU Short Term Fund, IPRU Credit Risk Fund, IPRU All Seasons Bond Fund Positive Neutral IPRU – ICICI Prudential. Asset allocation and investment strategy will be as per Scheme Information Document.
  • 65. Investment Approach for 2023 - SAFE Recommend Freedom SIP / Booster STP in Equity Schemes Expect volatility, recommend asset allocation across asset classes / geographies Debt schemes attractive post rate hikes For parking surplus funds S A F E TRIGGER The only trigger we would be watching out is further moderation in Indian Equity Market valuations for giving a more aggressive call ASSET ALLOCATION STAGGERED FIXED INCOME EQUITY ARBITRAGE / EQUITY SAVINGS FUND SAFE is an acronym used for Investment Approach for 2023 and does not in any manner indicate safety or less risk, For Freedom SIP & Booster STP disclaimer refer slide 81. 65
  • 66. 66 Riskometers ICICI Prudential Business Cycle Fund (An open ended equity scheme following business cycles based investing theme) is suitable for investors whoare seeking*:  Long term wealth creation  An equity scheme that invests in Indian markets with focus on riding business cycles through dynamic allocation between various sectors and stocks at different stages of business cycles *Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them ICICI Prudential Flexicap Fund (An open ended dynamic equity scheme investing across large cap, mid cap & small cap stocks) is suitable for investors who are seeking*:  Long term wealth creation  An open ended dynamic equity scheme investing across large cap, mid cap and small cap stocks *Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them ICICI Prudential Focused Equity Fund (An open ended equity scheme investing in maximum 30 stocks across market-capitalization i.e. focus on multicap) suitable for investors who are seeking*:  Long term wealth creation  An open ended equity scheme investing in maximum 30 stocks across market-capitalisation *Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them Please note that the Risk-o-meter(s) specified above will be evaluated and updated on a monthly basis. The above riskometers are as on August 31, 2023 Please refer to https://www.icicipruamc.com/news-and-updates/all-news for more details.
  • 67. 67 Riskometers ICICI Prudential Value Discovery Fund (An open ended equity scheme following a value investment strategy.)is suitable for investors who are seeking*:  Long term wealth creation  An open ended equity scheme following a value investment strategy *Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them Please note that the Risk-o-meter(s) specified above will be evaluated and updated on a monthly basis. The above riskometers are as on August 31, 2023 Please refer to https://www.icicipruamc.com/news-and-updates/all-news for more details. ICICI Prudential Balanced Advantage Fund (An open ended dynamic asset allocation fund) is suitable for investors who are seeking*:  Long term capital appreciation/income  Investing in equity and equity related securities and debt instruments *Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them ICICI Prudential Floating Interest Fund (An open ended debt scheme predominantly investing in floating rate instruments (including fixed rate instruments converted to floating rate exposures using swaps/derivatives). A relatively high interest rate risk and moderate credit risk ) is suitable for investors who are seeking*:  Short term savings  An open ended debt scheme predominantly investing in floating rate instruments *Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them
  • 68. 68 Riskometers Macaulay duration is the weighted average term to maturity of the cash flows from a bond. The weight of each cash flow is determined by dividing the present value of the cash flow by the price ICICI Prudential Gilt Fund (An open ended debt scheme investing in government securities across maturity. A relatively high interest rate risk and relatively low credit risk.) is suitable for investors who are seeking*:  Long term wealth creation  A Gilt scheme that aims to generate income through investment in Gilts of various maturities *Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them ICICI Prudential Savings Fund (An open ended low duration debt scheme investing in instruments such that the Macaulay duration of the portfolio is between 6 months and 12 months. A relatively high interest rate risk and moderate credit risk) is suitable for investors who are seeking*:  Short term savings  An open ended low duration debt scheme that aims to maximize income by investing in debt and money market instruments while maintaining optimum balance of yield, safety and liquidity *Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them ICICI Prudential All Seasons Bond Fund (An open ended dynamic debt scheme investing across duration. A relatively high interest rate risk and moderate credit risk) is suitable for investors who are seeking*:  All duration savings  A debt scheme that invests in debt and money market instruments with a view to maximize income while maintaining optimum balance of yield, safety and liquidity *Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them Please note that the Risk-o-meter(s) specified above will be evaluated and updated on a monthly basis. The above riskometers are as on August 31, 2023 Please refer to https://www.icicipruamc.com/news-and-updates/all-news for more details.
  • 69. 69 Riskometers Macaulay duration is the weighted average term to maturity of the cash flows from a bond. The weight of each cash flow is determined by dividing the present value of the cash flow by the price ICICI Prudential Corporate Bond Fund (An open ended debt scheme predominantly investing in AA+ and above rated corporate bonds. A relatively high interest rate risk and moderate credit risk) is suitable for investors who are seeking*:  Short term savings  An open ended debt scheme predominantly investing in highest rated corporate bonds *Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them ICICI Prudential Liquid Fund (An open ended liquid scheme. A relatively low interest rate risk and moderate credit risk) is suitable for investors who are seeking*:  Short term savings solution  A liquid fund that aims to provide reasonable returns commensurate with low risk and providing a high level of liquidity *Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them ICICI Prudential Ultra Short Term (An open ended ultra-short term debt scheme investing in instruments such that the Macaulay duration of the portfolio is between 3 months and 6 months. A moderate interest rate risk and moderate credit risk) Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*:  Short term regular income  An open ended ultra-short term debt scheme investing in a range of debt and money market instruments *Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them Please note that the Risk-o-meter(s) specified above will be evaluated and updated on a monthly basis. The above riskometers are as on August 31, 2023 Please refer to https://www.icicipruamc.com/news-and-updates/all-news for more details.
  • 70.  Short term savings  A money market scheme that seeks to provide reasonable returns, commensurate with low risk while providing a high level of liquidity 70 Riskometers Macaulay duration is the weighted average term to maturity of the cash flows from a bond. The weight of each cash flow is determined by dividing the present value of the cash flow by the price ICICI Prudential Money Market Fund (An open ended debt scheme investing in money market instruments. A relatively low interest rate risk and moderate credit risk) is suitable for investors who are seeking*: *Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them Please note that the Risk-o-meter(s) specified above will be evaluated and updated on a monthly basis. The above riskometers are as on August 31, 2023 Please refer to https://www.icicipruamc.com/news-and-updates/all-news for more details. ICICI Prudential Banking & PSU Debt Fund (An open ended debt scheme predominantly investing in Debt instruments of banks, Public Sector Undertakings, Public Financial Institutions and Municipal bonds. A relatively high interest rate risk and moderate credit risk) is suitable for investors who are seeking*:  Short term savings  An open ended debt scheme predominantly investing in Debt instruments of banks, Public Sector Undertakings, Public Financial Institutions and Municipal Bonds *Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them ICICI Prudential Short Term Fund (An open ended short term debt scheme investing in instruments such that the Macaulay duration of the portfolio is between 1 Year and 3 Years. A relatively high interest rate risk and moderate credit risk) is suitable for investors who are seeking*:  Short term income generation and capital appreciation solution  A debt fund that aims to generate income by investing in a range of debt and money market instruments of various maturities *Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them
  • 71. 71 Riskometers Macaulay duration is the weighted average term to maturity of the cash flows from a bond. The weight of each cash flow is determined by dividing the present value of the cash flow by the price ICICI Prudential Medium Term Bond Fund (An Open Ended medium term debt scheme investing in instruments such that the Macaulay duration of the portfolio is between 3 Years and 4 Years The Macaulay duration of the portfolio is 1 Year to 4 years under anticipated adverse situation. A relatively high interest rate risk and moderate credit risk) is suitable for investors who are seeking*:  Medium term savings  A debt scheme that invests in debt and money market instruments with a view to maximize income while maintaining optimum balance of yield, safety and liquidity *Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them Please note that the Risk-o-meter(s) specified above will be evaluated and updated on a monthly basis. The above riskometers are as on August 31, 2023 Please refer to https://www.icicipruamc.com/news-and-updates/all-news for more details. ICICI Prudential Credit Risk Fund (An open ended debt scheme predominantly investing in AA and below rated corporate bonds. A relatively high interest rate risk and relatively high credit risk) is suitable for investors who are seeking*:  Medium term savings  A debt scheme that aims to generate income through investing predominantly in AA and below rated corporate bonds while maintaining the optimum balance of yield, safety and liquidity *Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them ICICI Prudential Equity & Debt Fund (An open ended hybrid scheme investing predominantly in equity and equity related instruments) is suitable for investors whoare seeking*:  Long term wealth creation solution  A balanced fund aiming for long term capital appreciation and current income by investing in equity as well as fixed income securities *Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them
  • 72. 72 Riskometers ICICI Prudential Bond Fund (An open ended medium to long term debt scheme investing in instruments such that the Macaulay duration of the portfolio is between 4 Years and 7 years. The Macaulay duration of the portfolio is 1 Year to 7 years under anticipated adverse situation. A relatively high interest rate risk and moderate credit risk) is suitable for investors who are seeking*  Medium to Long term savings  A debt scheme that invests in debt and money market instruments with an aim to maximize income while maintaining an optimum balance of yield, safety and liquidity *Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them Please note that the Risk-o-meter(s) specified above will be evaluated and updated on a monthly basis. The above riskometers are as on August 31, 2023 Please refer to https://www.icicipruamc.com/news-and-updates/all-news for more details. Macaulay duration is the weighted average term to maturity of the cash flows from a bond. The weight of each cash flow is determined by dividing the present value of the cash flow by the price ICICI Prudential Long Term Bond Fund (An open-ended debt scheme investing in instruments such that the Macaulay duration of the portfolio is greater than 7 Years A relatively high interest rate risk and relatively low credit risk) is suitable for investors who are seeking*:  Long term wealth creation  A debt scheme that invests in debt and money market instruments with an aim to maximize income while maintaining an optimum balance of yield, safety and liquidity. *Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them ICICI Prudential Multi-Asset Fund (An open ended scheme investing in Equity, Debt and Exchange Traded Commodity Derivatives/units of Gold ETFs/units of REITs & InvITs/Preference shares) is suitable for investors who are seeking*:  Long Term Wealth Creation  An open ended scheme investing across asset classes *Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them
  • 73. 73 Riskometers Please note that the Risk-o-meter(s) specified above will be evaluated and updated on a monthly basis. The above riskometers are as on August 31, 2023 Please refer to https://www.icicipruamc.com/news-and-updates/all-news for more details. Macaulay duration is the weighted average term to maturity of the cash flows from a bond. The weight of each cash flow is determined by dividing the present value of the cash flow by the price ICICI Prudential Overnight Fund (An open ended debt scheme investing in overnight securities. A relatively low interest rate risk and relatively low credit risk) is suitable for investors who are seeking*:  Short term savings  An overnight fund that aims to provide reasonable returns commensurate with low risk and providing a high level of liquidity. *Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them
  • 74. 74 YTM disclaimers As per AMFI Best Practices Guidelines Circular No. AMFI/35P/MEM-COR/72/2022-23 dated December 31, 2022 on Standard format for disclosure of portfolio YTM for debt schemes. Yield of the instrument is disclosed on annualized basis as provided by Valuation agencies. *in case of semi-annual YTM it will be annualized Macaulay duration is the weighted average term to maturity of the cash flows from a bond. The weight of each cash flow is determined by dividing the present value of the cash flow by the price YTM Disclaimer: Portfolio Information Scheme Name : ICICI Prudential Credit Risk Fund Description (if any) An open ended debt scheme predominantly investing in AA and below rated corporate bonds. A relatively high interest rate risk and relatively high credit risk. Annualised Portfolio YTM* : 8.35% Macaulay Duration 1.86 Years Residual Maturity 3.43 Years As on (Date) August 31, 2023 YTM Disclaimer: Portfolio Information Scheme Name : ICICI Prudential Overnight Fund Description (if any) An open ended debt scheme investing in overnight securities. A relatively low interest rate risk and relatively low credit risk Annualised Portfolio YTM* : 6.66% Macaulay Duration 0.0014 Years Residual Maturity 0.0041 Years As on (Date) August 31, 2023 YTM Disclaimer: Portfolio Information Scheme Name : ICICI Prudential Liquid Fund Description (if any) An open ended liquid scheme. A relatively low interest rate risk and moderate credit risk Annualised Portfolio YTM* : 7.04% Macaulay Duration 0.12 Years Residual Maturity 0.12 Years As on (Date) August 31, 2023
  • 75. 75 YTM disclaimers As per AMFI Best Practices Guidelines Circular No. AMFI/35P/MEM-COR/72/2022-23 dated December 31, 2022 on Standard format for disclosure of portfolio YTM for debt schemes. Yield of the instrument is disclosed on annualized basis as provided by Valuation agencies. *in case of semi-annual YTM it will be annualized Macaulay duration is the weighted average term to maturity of the cash flows from a bond. The weight of each cash flow is determined by dividing the present value of the cash flow by the price YTM Disclaimer Portfolio Information Scheme Name : ICICI Prudential Money Market Fund Description (if any) An open ended debt scheme investing in money market instruments. A relatively low interest rate risk and moderate credit risk Annualised Portfolio YTM* : 7.33% Macaulay Duration 0.47 Years Residual Maturity 0.48 Years As on (Date) August 31, 2023 YTM Disclaimer: Portfolio Information Scheme Name : ICICI Prudential Ultra Short Term Fund Description (if any) An open ended ultra-short term debt scheme investing in instruments such that the Macaulay duration of the portfolio is between 3 months and 6 months A moderate interest rate risk and moderate credit risk Annualised Portfolio YTM* : 7.48% Macaulay Duration 0.43 Years Residual Maturity 0.46 Years As on (Date) August 31, 2023 YTM Disclaimer: Portfolio Information Scheme Name : ICICI Prudential Savings Fund Description (if any) An open ended low duration debt scheme investing in instruments such that the Macaulay duration of the portfolio is between 6 months and 12 months. A relatively high interest rate risk and moderate credit risk Annualised Portfolio YTM* : 7.67% Macaulay Duration 0.74 Years Residual Maturity 2.51 Years As on (Date) August 31, 2023
  • 76. 76 YTM disclaimers As per AMFI Best Practices Guidelines Circular No. AMFI/35P/MEM-COR/72/2022-23 dated December 31, 2022 on Standard format for disclosure of portfolio YTM for debt schemes. Yield of the instrument is disclosed on annualized basis as provided by Valuation agencies. *in case of semi-annual YTM it will be annualized Macaulay duration is the weighted average term to maturity of the cash flows from a bond. The weight of each cash flow is determined by dividing the present value of the cash flow by the price YTM Disclaimer: Portfolio Information Scheme Name : ICICI Prudential Floating Interest Fund Description (if any) An open ended debt scheme predominantly investing in floating rate instruments (including fixed rate instruments converted to floating rate exposures using swaps/derivatives). A relatively high interest rate risk and moderate credit risk Annualised Portfolio YTM* : 8.06% Macaulay Duration 0.82 Years Residual Maturity 6.66 Years As on (Date) August 31, 2023 YTM Disclaimer: Portfolio Information Scheme Name : ICICI Prudential Corporate Bond Fund Description (if any) An open ended debt scheme predominantly investing in AA+ and above rated corporate bonds. A relatively high interest rate risk and moderate credit risk Annualised Portfolio YTM* : 7.83% Macaulay Duration 1.88 Years Residual Maturity 3.95 Years As on (Date) August 31, 2023
  • 77. 77 YTM disclaimers As per AMFI Best Practices Guidelines Circular No. AMFI/35P/MEM-COR/72/2022-23 dated December 31, 2022 on Standard format for disclosure of portfolio YTM for debt schemes. Yield of the instrument is disclosed on annualized basis as provided by Valuation agencies. *in case of semi-annual YTM it will be annualized Macaulay duration is the weighted average term to maturity of the cash flows from a bond. The weight of each cash flow is determined by dividing the present value of the cash flow by the price YTM Disclaimer: Portfolio Information Scheme Name : ICICI Prudential Short Term Fund Description (if any) An open ended short term debt scheme investing in instruments such that the Macaulay duration of the portfolio is between 1 Year and 3 Years. A relatively high interest rate risk and moderate credit risk Annualised Portfolio YTM* : 7.97% Macaulay Duration 2.43 Years Residual Maturity 5.35 Years As on (Date) August 31, 2023 YTM Disclaimer: Portfolio Information Scheme Name : ICICI Prudential Banking & PSU Debt Fund Description (if any) An open ended debt scheme predominantly investing in Debt instruments of banks, Public Sector Undertakings, Public Financial Institutions and Municipal bonds. A relatively high interest rate risk and moderate credit risk Annualised Portfolio YTM* : 7.71% Macaulay Duration 2.05 Years Residual Maturity 4.17 Years As on (Date) August 31, 2023 YTM Disclaimer: Portfolio Information Scheme Name : ICICI Prudential Medium Term Bond Fund Description (if any) An Open Ended medium term debt scheme investing in instruments such that the Macaulay duration of the portfolio is between 3 Years and 4 Years. The Macaulay duration of the portfolio is 1 Year to 4 years under anticipated adverse situation. A relatively high interest rate risk and moderate credit risk Annualised Portfolio YTM* : 8.21% Macaulay Duration 3.18 Years Residual Maturity 4.98 Years As on (Date) August 31, 2023
  • 78. 78 YTM disclaimers As per AMFI Best Practices Guidelines Circular No. AMFI/35P/MEM-COR/72/2022-23 dated December 31, 2022 on Standard format for disclosure of portfolio YTM for debt schemes. Yield of the instrument is disclosed on annualized basis as provided by Valuation agencies. *in case of semi-annual YTM it will be annualized Macaulay duration is the weighted average term to maturity of the cash flows from a bond. The weight of each cash flow is determined by dividing the present value of the cash flow by the price YTM Disclaimer: Portfolio Information Scheme Name : ICICI Prudential All Seasons Bond Fund Description (if any) An open ended dynamic debt scheme investing across duration. A relatively high interest rate risk and moderate credit risk Annualised Portfolio YTM* : 7.93% Macaulay Duration 3.13 Years Residual Maturity 5.30 Years As on (Date) August 31, 2023 YTM Disclaimer: Portfolio Information Scheme Name : ICICI Prudential Bond Fund Description (if any) An open ended medium to long term debt scheme Investing in instruments such that the Macaulay duration of the portfolio is between 4 Years and 7 years. The Macaulay duration of the portfolio is 1 Year to 7 years under anticipated adverse situation. A relatively high interest rate risk and moderate credit risk Annualised Portfolio YTM* : 7.50% Macaulay Duration 4.13 Years Residual Maturity 6.52 Years As on (Date) August 31, 2023
  • 79. 79 YTM disclaimers As per AMFI Best Practices Guidelines Circular No. AMFI/35P/MEM-COR/72/2022-23 dated December 31, 2022 on Standard format for disclosure of portfolio YTM for debt schemes. Yield of the instrument is disclosed on annualized basis as provided by Valuation agencies. *in case of semi-annual YTM it will be annualized Macaulay duration is the weighted average term to maturity of the cash flows from a bond. The weight of each cash flow is determined by dividing the present value of the cash flow by the price YTM Disclaimer: Portfolio Information Scheme Name : ICICI Prudential Long Term Bond Fund Description (if any) An open-ended debt scheme investing in instruments such that the Macaulay duration of the portfolio is greater than 7 Years. A relatively high interest rate risk and relatively low credit risk Annualised Portfolio YTM* : 7.46% Macaulay Duration 7.32 Years Residual Maturity 10.77 Years As on (Date) August 31, 2023 YTM Disclaimer: Portfolio Information Scheme Name : ICICI Prudential Gilt Fund Description (if any) An open ended debt scheme investing in government securities across maturity. A relatively high interest rate risk and relatively low credit risk Annualised Portfolio YTM* : 7.58% Macaulay Duration 2.56 Years Residual Maturity 6.26 Years As on (Date) August 31, 2023
  • 80. 80 Potential Risk Class Matrix Sr No 1 Scheme Name ICICI Prudential Medium Term Bond Fund Position in the Matrix 2 ICICI Prudential All Seasons Bond Fund 3 ICICI Prudential Savings Fund 4 ICICI Prudential Floating Interest Fund 5 ICICI Prudential Corporate Bond Fund 6 ICICI Prudential Banking & PSU Debt Fund 7 ICICI Prudential Short Term Fund 8 ICICI Prudential Bond Fund 9 ICICI Prudential Long Term Bond Fund 10 ICICI Prudential Gilt Fund 11 ICICI Prudential Ultra Short Term Fund Disclaimer: The potential risk class (PRC) matrix based on interest rate risk and credit risk, is as above:
  • 81. 81 Potential Risk Class Matrix Disclaimer: The potential risk class (PRC) matrix based on interest rate risk and credit risk, is as above: Sr No 12 Scheme Name ICICI Prudential Overnight Fund Position in the Matrix 13 ICICI Prudential Liquid Fund 14 ICICI Prudential Money Market Fund 15 ICICI Prudential Credit Risk Fund
  • 82. 82 Mutual Fund Disclaimer ICICI Prudential Freedom SIP (the Facility) including the default monthly SWP payouts do not guarantee, assure, promise or indicate fixed returns/performance of any schemes of ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund or under SIP or of the withdrawal under the Facility. The Facility is an optional feature that allows initial monthly investments through SIP in the source scheme, switch to target scheme after a pre-defined tenure and then monthly SWP from the target scheme. The SWP will be processed either till Dec 2099 or till the units are available in the target scheme, whichever is earlier. The default monthly SWP payout amounts indicates the likely amount that can be withdrawn. Please read the terms and conditions in the application form before investing or visit www.iciciprumf.com. ICICI Prudential Booster Systematic Transfer Plan (“Booster STP”) is a facility wherein unit holder(s) can opt to transfer variable amount(s) from designated open ended Scheme(s) of the Fund [hereinafter referred to as “Source Scheme”] to the designated open-ended Scheme(s) of the Fund [hereinafter referred to as “Target Scheme”] at defined intervals. The Unitholder would be required to provide a Base Installment Amount that is intended to be transferred to the Target Scheme. The variable amount(s) or actual amount(s) of transfer to the Target Scheme will be linked to the Equity Valuation Index (hereinafter referred to as EVI). Equity Valuation Index (EVI) is a proprietary model of ICICI Prudential AMC Ltd. (the AMC) used for assessing overall equity market valuations. The AMC may also use this model for other facilities/features offered by the AMC All figures and other data given in this document are dated as of August 31, 2023 unless stated otherwise. The same may or may not be relevant at a future date. The information shall not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent of ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company Limited (the AMC). Prospective investors are advised to consult their own legal, tax and financial advisors to determine possible tax, legal and other financial implication or consequence of subscribing to the units of ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund Disclaimer: In the preparation of the material contained in this document, the AMC has used information that is publicly available, including information developed in- house. Some of the material(s) used in the document may have been obtained from members/persons other than the AMC and/or its affiliates and which may have been made available to the AMC and/or to its affiliates. Information gathered and material used in this document is believed to be from reliable sources. The AMC however does not warrant the accuracy, reasonableness and / or completeness of any information. We have included statements / opinions / recommendations in this document, which contain words, or phrases such as “will”, “expect”, “should”, “believe” and similar expressions or variations of such expressions, that are “forward looking statements”. Actual results may differ materially from those suggested by the forward looking statements due to risk or uncertainties associated with our expectations with respect to, but not limited to, exposure to market risks, general economic and political conditions in India and other countries globally, which have an impact on our services and / or investments, the monetary and interest policies of India, inflation, deflation, unanticipated turbulence in interest rates, foreign exchange rates, equity prices or other rates or prices etc. ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company Limited (including its affiliates), the Mutual Fund, The Trust and any of its officers, directors, personnel and employees, shall not liable for any loss, damage of any nature, including but not limited to direct, indirect, punitive, special, exemplary, consequential, as also any loss of profit in any way arising from the use of this material in any manner. Further, the information contained herein should not be construed as forecast or promise. The recipient alone shall be fully responsible/are liable for any decision taken on this material Mutual Fund investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme related documents carefully.