SlideShare a Scribd company logo
1 of 49
Download to read offline
An open ended equity scheme following business cycles based investing theme
Phases of a Business Cycle
2
The chart is for illustrative purpose only
Output
Capacity Growth
TrendGrowth
Recession
Slump
Recovery
Time
How Business Cycle Actually Works
Output
Time
Growth
Recession
Slump Recovery
Capacity
Growth
Trend
Macro Economic
conditions and the Fiscal &
Monetary Policy response
by the Govt. & Central Banks,
during an on-going Business
Cycle may extend or shorten a
Business Cycle basis
conditions prevailing at the
time. Such distortions often
provides appropriate
opportunities to invest
3
The chart is for illustrative purpose only
Characteristics of Business Cycle Phases
GROWTH RECESSION SLUMP RECOVERY
Economic Conditions
• Capacity utilisation above
normal
• Output growth strong
• Corporate profitability also
peaks.
• Strong tax revenues
• Markets not focussing on risk
Appropriate Monetary
Policy Response:
Tightening/ Contractionary
Economic Conditions
• Capacity utilisation still
above normal but falling
• Output growth below trend
• Tax revenues moderating
Appropriate Monetary
Policy Response:
Moving from contractionary
to neutral
Economic Conditions
• Capacity utilization below
normal.
• Growth also below trend.
• Risk aversion very high.
• Demand weak
Appropriate Monetary
Policy Response:
Accommodative policy
Economic Conditions
• Growth – Picks Up
• Credit Growth – Improves
• Inflation – starts to increase
• Govt. tax collection –
starts picking up
Appropriate Monetary
Policy Response:
Move from accommodative to
neutral
4
The above list is illustrative and not exhaustive, there may be several other characteristics observed during each phase
How To Identify A Business Cycle? – Few Examples
Business Cycle in Growth Phase Business Cycle in Slump Phase
Consumers and businesses feel
confident
Factories run at full capacity across all shifts
Businesses plan expansion
Employees have multiple job offers, Salary
hikes
Consumers buy discretionary goods, plan
vacations (growth in tourism)
Consumers and businesses nervous.
Postponing spending
Factories have idle capacity. Not operating
all shifts
Businesses cutting cost and capex
Layoffs and Salary Freeze
Consumers opt for spending cut
5
The above list is illustrative and not exhaustive. Capex – Capital Expenditure. The stocks/sectors mentioned in this slide do not constitute any recommendation and ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund may or may not
have any future position in these stocks/sectors.
Impact of
BUSINESS CYCLES
on Sectors
6
Sector Impact – Business Cycle
Sector Performance across Business Cycle phases
SECTORS RECOVERY EXPANSION RECESSION SLUMP
Financials
Technology
Consumer Discretionary
Consumer Staples
Pharmaceuticals
Energy
Real Estate
Metals
Utilities
7
Green shade indicates good performance, Amber shade indicates neutral performance and Red shade indicates poor performance. The stocks/sectors mentioned in this slide do not constitute any recommendation and
ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund may or may not have any future position in these stocks/sectors
Sector Impact – Business Cycle
SLUMP
ILLUSTRATION 1 – CEMENT INDUSTRY (CYCLICAL SECTOR)
Particulars Remarks
Cement bag capacity
(Daily)
100 units
Actual Demand (Daily) 40 units
Revenue (Daily)
40*100 =
Rs. 4,000
Fixed Cost (Daily) Rs. 1,000
Net Profit Rs. 3,000
GROWTH
Particulars Remarks
Cement bag capacity
(Daily)
100 units
Actual Demand (Daily) 90 units
Revenue (Daily)
90*100 =
Rs. 9,000
Fixed Cost (Daily) Rs. 1,000
Net Profit Rs. 8,000
• Capacity of Producing:
100 Cement Bags Daily
• Sales Value of Cement
Bag – INR 100
8
The above table is for illustrative purpose only. The stocks/sectors mentioned in this slide do not constitute any recommendation and ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund may or may not have any future position in these
stocks/sectors
Sector Impact – Business Cycle
RECOVERY / GROWTH PHASE
ILLUSTRATION 2 – BANKING (CYCLICAL SECTOR)
• Increased Capex by
companies
• Increased requirement for
raw materials, resources
etc. by companies
• Rise in income,
discretionary spending by
individuals, corporates
Pick up in Sentiments,
Demands, Credit. Banks
tend to do well
Strong GDP growth rate
High inflation
Rising interest rates
9
Capex – Capital Expenditure. The above explanation is for illustrative purpose only. The stocks/sectors mentioned in this slide do not constitute any recommendation and ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund may or may not have
any future position in these stocks/sectors
Sector Impact – Business Cycle
WHEN THE GOING GETS TOUGH (SLUMP)
ILLUSTRATION 3 – PHARMA & FMCG (DEFENSIVE SECTOR)
Hey, despite this pandemic I still need…
Medicines
Food to
survive
Medicines Food
10
The above explanation is for illustrative purpose only. The stocks/sectors mentioned in this slide do not constitute any recommendation and ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund may or may not have any future position in these stocks/sectors
Defensive sectors like Pharma
& FMCG tend to do well even
when economy is in slump
BUSINESS CYCLE
Investing
11
Business Cycle Investing – Akin To Driving
CONDITIONS WHEN DRIVING ON EXPRESSWAY
Broad & Smooth roads
Comfortable Journey
Less Travel Time
Efficient fuel consumption
CONDUCIVE FOR SPEED @ 80-100 KMPH
• Banks
• Infrastructure
• Real Estate
• Capitall Goods
CONDITIONS WHEN ECONOMY IS IN FULL SWING
Good Macros
Low interest rate environment
Good Demand
CONDUCIVE FOR INVESTMENT PORTFOLIO
TO ALIGN TOWARDS
12
The above explanation is for illustrative purpose only. The stocks/sectors mentioned in this slide do not constitute any recommendation and ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund may or may not have any future position in these
stocks/sectors. The asset allocation and investment strategy will be as per Scheme Information Document. The portfolio of the scheme is subject to changes within the provisions of the Scheme Information document of the
Scheme.
Business Cycle Investing – Akin To Driving
CONDITIONS WHEN DRIVING ON A CITY HIGHWAY
Average roads
Less Comfortable Journey
More travel time due to traffic
Inefficient fuel consumption
CONDUCIVE FOR SPEED @ 40-60 KMPH
• Energy
• Metals
• Technology
CONDITIONS WHEN ECONOMY IS
IN MODERATE ZONE
Average Macros
Relatively high interest rate environment
Average Demand
CONDUCIVE FOR INVESTMENT PORTFOLIO
TO ALIGN TOWARDS
13
The above explanation is for illustrative purpose only. The stocks/sectors mentioned in this slide do not constitute any recommendation and ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund may or may not have any future position in these
stocks/sectors. The asset allocation and investment strategy will be as per Scheme Information Document. The portfolio of the scheme is subject to changes within the provisions of the Scheme Information document of the
Scheme.
Business Cycle Investing – Akin To Driving
CONDITIONS WHEN DRIVING IN A VILLAGE
Narrow roads
Uncomfortable Journey
More Travel Time
High fuel consumption
CONDUCIVE FOR SPEED @ 10-30 KMPH
• Technology
• Pharmaceuticals
• Power
• Telecom
CONDITIONS WHEN ECONOMY IS
IN A RECESSIONARY ZONE
Poor Macros
Poor Growth prospects
Low Demand
CONDUCIVE FOR INVESTMENT PORTFOLIO
TO ALIGN TOWARDS
14
The above explanation is for illustrative purpose only. The stocks/sectors mentioned in this slide do not constitute any recommendation and ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund may or may not have any future position in these
stocks/sectors. The asset allocation and investment strategy will be as per Scheme Information Document. The portfolio of the scheme is subject to changes within the provisions of the Scheme Information document of the
Scheme.
How is
BUSINESS CYCLE
INVESTING different?
15
P/E – Price to Earnings, P/B – Price to Book
Windshield Mirror Vs. Rear View Mirror
WINDSHIELD MIRROR REAR VIEW MIRROR
Future earnings potential
AIMS TO FOCUS ON WAY FORWARD
Economic indicators Future market share growth
Future project pipeline Historical returns
AIMS TO FOCUS ON HISTORICAL DATA
Long term average PE + PB Track record of dividend yield
Category Flows
16
BOTTOM-UP APPROACH ORIENTED FUND BUSINESS CYCLE ORIENTED FUND
(TOP-DOWN APPROACH)
BUSINESS CYCLE INVESTING – An Investment Style
Which Focuses on Macros
WAY FORWARD
• Economic indicators
• Future earnings potential
• Future market share
growth
• Future project pipeline
HISTORICAL DATA
• Long term average
PE + PB
• Historical returns
• Track record of
dividend yield
• Flows to that category
WAY FORWARD
• Economic indicators
• Policy response
• Growth
• Inflation
HISTORICAL DATA
17
Heavy
Light
Heavy
Light
• Management
track record
• Valuations
(P/E & P/B)
P/E – Price to Earnings, P/B – Price to Book
Weightage Weightage
Historical Turning Points in
BUSINESS CYCLE
18
Strong recovery in Domestic + Global Growth = Strong Recovery Phase
2003-2004: Turning Point
CONTRIBUTING FACTORS TO
DOMESTIC GROWTH
• Low Interest Rates, 10 year G-sec at 5%,
Current Account Surplus @ 2.3%, Low
Inflation ~ 3.5%, Currency valuations cheap
• Low Household & Corporate leverage
• Bank NPAs and resolution
• Cheap land and labor
Banking & Capital Goods performed well post 2003,
as the leveraging cycle, capex and infrastructure picked-up
19
408
100
846
0
200
400
600
800
Dec/03
Dec/04
Dec/05
Dec/06
Dec/07
IndexValuesRe-basedto100
S&P BSE Bankex & Capital Goods
S&P BSE Bankex S&P BSE CG
Source: MFIE. NPA – Non Performing Assets. Time period for performance considered is from 31-Dec-03 to 31-Dec-07. The stocks/sectors mentioned in this slide do not constitute any recommendation and ICICI Prudential Mutual
Fund may or may not have any future position in these stocks/sectors. Past performance may or may not sustain in future. MFI Explorer is a tool provided by ICRA Online Ltd. For their standard disclaimer please visit
http://www.icraonline.com/legal/standard-disclaimer.html.
Slow Domestic Growth + Weak Global Growth = Slowdown/Recession Phase
2011-2012: Turning Point
CONTRIBUTING FACTORS TO
DOMESTIC GROWTH
• Weaker macro environment – Pro cyclically
High fiscal deficit, High Inflation, High Current
Account Deficit
• Expensive Currency
• High corporate leverage, neutral household
leverage
Pharmaceuticals & Technology performed well post 2012,
as INR depreciated & Current Account Deficit was high
20
127
100
160
90
110
130
150
170
Dec/12
Jan/13
Feb/13
Mar/13
Apr/13
May/13
Jun/13
Jul/13
Aug/13
Sep/13
Oct/13
Nov/13
Dec/13
IndexValuesarere-basedto100
Nifty Pharma & S&P BSE IT Index
Nifty Pharma S&P BSE IT
Source: MFIE. Time period for performance considered is from 31-Dec-12 to 31-Dec-13. The stocks/sectors mentioned in this slide do not constitute any recommendation and ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund may or may not have any
future position in these stocks/sectors. Past performance may or may not sustain in future. MFI Explorer is a tool provided by ICRA Online Ltd. For their standard disclaimer please visit http://www.icraonline.com/legal/standard-
disclaimer.html.
Weak Domestic Growth + Strong Global Growth = Global Recovery / Domestic Slowdown Phase
2018: Turning Point
CONTRIBUTING FACTORS TO
DOMESTIC GROWTH
• Demonetization – a massive regulatory
tightening, however weaker policy response
to counter it including tight monetary
conditions
• Pro-cyclical regulatory environment – NBFCs
loan book expansion driving household
leverage in a weak income environment
• Low corporate leverage but low earnings
Pharmaceuticals & Technology performed well post
2018, due to strong Global Cycle
21
133
154
70
90
110
130
150
Dec/18
Mar/19
May/19
Aug/19
Oct/19
Jan/20
Mar/20
Jun/20
Aug/20
Nov/20
IndexValuesarere-basedto100
Nifty Pharma & S&P BSE IT Index
Nifty Pharma S&P BSE IT
Source: MFIE, NBFC – Non Banking Financial Company. Time period for performance considered is from 31-Dec-18 to 30-Nov-20. The stocks/sectors mentioned in this slide do not constitute any recommendation and ICICI Prudential
Mutual Fund may or may not have any future position in these stocks/sectors. Past performance may or may not sustain in future. MFI Explorer is a tool provided by ICRA Online Ltd. For their standard disclaimer please visit
http://www.icraonline.com/legal/standard-disclaimer.html.
Why BUSINESS CYCLE
investing at this juncture –
Macroeconomic Factors are
going to be critical
22
Shift From High To Low Interest Rates
Over the last decade, Global Central Banks including India & US, have supported growth by maintaining a
low interest rate environment
Any change in the interest rate stance may trigger Business Cycle Phase change
23
8.0
4.0
3.5
4.5
5.5
6.5
7.5
8.5
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
India Repo Rate (%)
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
US 3Y, 5Y, 10Y Treasury Yields (%)
USGG3YR Index USGG5YR Index USGG12M Index
Source: RBI, Edelweiss Research. Data as of Nov 30, 2020
Shift In The Amount Of Fiscal Stimulus
Global Economies have expanded their balance sheets manifold in the last decade
thereby increasing liquidity.
Any change in the stance on quantum or a decline in stimulus may trigger Business Cycle phase change
24
15236
27405
15000
19000
23000
27000
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
US Treasury Public Debt Outstanding (USD Bn)
8.5
15.1
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Global broad money supply growth
(US, Europe & China)
Source: Edelweiss Research. Data as of Nov 30, 2020
Shift In Volatility
Equity markets delivered decent returns in relatively less volatile period due to ample liquidity.
With limited room for rate cuts and fiscal stimulus going forward, Business Cycle Phase
may change with reversal in stance
25
-60%
-30%
0%
30%
60%
90%
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2000-2009 Equity Market Returns
(Nifty 50 Index)
Avg. Returns:
21%
-30%
-10%
10%
30%
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2010-2019 Equity Market Returns
(Nifty 50 Index)
Avg.
Returns:
10%
Source: MFIE. Past performance may or may not sustain in future. MFI Explorer is a tool provided by ICRA Online Ltd. For their standard disclaimer please visit http://www.icraonline.com/legal/standard-disclaimer.html.
Shift In Number of COVID Cases – Peak To Trough
Except for the US, COVID-19 Infection curve appears to be flattening. Vaccines have already been approved and
are being used in some countries. Business Cycle may change going forward with mass availability of COVID
vaccine & on-going development around COVID vaccine
26
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
180000
200000
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
Day1
Day8
Day15
Day22
Day29
Day36
Day43
Day50
Day57
Day64
Day71
Day78
Day85
Day92
Day99
Day106
Day113
Day120
Day127
Day134
Day141
Day148
Day155
Day162
Day169
Day176
Day183
Day190
Day197
Day204
Day211
Day218
Day225
Day232
Day239
Day246
Day253
Day260
Day267
Day274
Day281
Day288
Day295
Day302
Day309
Italy France Spain Iran Russia UK US - RHS India - RHS Brazil - RHS
Source: JM Financial. Data as of Nov 30, 2020
To Sum Up…
LAST DECADE
Scenario
Easy Monetary Policy + Interest Rate Cuts
=
led to Lower Volatility
NEXT DECADE
Scenario
Limited room for rate cut + Elevated Global equity valuations
=
May result in Volatility
Strategy
Positive for equities as an asset class and
long duration schemes
Strategy
1) Be nimble as the macro environment may change
2) Schemes which aim to move between sectors swiftly
3) Volatility may be high. Hence a portfolio capable of prudently
positioning between various sectors may be suitable
27
PRESENTING
ICICI Prudential
BUSINESS CYCLE FUND
28
Business Cycle InvestingOutput
Time
Invests across Marketcap
No capping / minimum requirements
Invests across Themes
No capping / limits towards a particular theme
Invests across Sectors
No capping / limits towards a particular sector
Top Down Approach of investing
Not a Value / Contra / Special Situation/
Growth style of investment
02
03
04
29
01
The asset allocation and investment strategy will be as per Scheme Information Document. The portfolio of the scheme is subject to changes within the provisions of the Scheme Information document of the Scheme.
About ICICI Prudential Business Cycle Fund
INVESTMENT
PHILOSOPHY
Aim to identify and invest in opportunities
across sectors/themes/market caps, based
on prevailing business cycle
INVESTMENT
PROCESS
• The Fund Manager & Analysts decide the
investment theme basis prevailing market cycle
• The Fund Management team identifies
opportunities in that particular sector
INVESTMENT
APPROACH
Pure top-down approach based on various
macro indicators – inflation, growth, deficit, etc.
INVESTMENT
UNIVERSE
Opportunities from Nifty 500 TRI universe
will be considered for investment
SECURITY
SELECTION
Post identifying sectors based on the
Business Cycle, aim to select stocks basis
various financial parameters
EVALUATION
Periodic/event based assessment of the
macro economic environment and subsequent
investment approach
30
The asset allocation and investment strategy will be as per Scheme Information Document. The portfolio of the scheme is subject to changes within the provisions of the Scheme Information document of the Scheme.
Robust Investment Process & Portfolio Construct
ICICI PRUDENTIAL
BUSINESS CYCLE FUND
Monitor macro indicators –
GLOBAL & DOMESTIC
Aims to identify Business
Cycle –
GLOBAL & DOMESTIC
Aims to identify suitable
Theme / Sectors
Meeting of the Fund
Managers & Analysts
Finalize
Theme/Sectors/Stocks
Aims to identify
stocks
31
The asset allocation and investment strategy will be as per Scheme Information Document. The portfolio of the scheme is subject to changes within the provisions of the Scheme Information document of the Scheme.
Below parameters are aimed at ascertaining the phase of Business Cycle
and subsequently an investment approach is devised
Parameters For Identifying Business Cycles
Capex – Capital Expenditure, DM – Developed Markets. The above list its not exhaustive and above mentioned indicative indicators are used to ascertain business cycle and the same may change based on the evolving environment. The
asset allocation and investment strategy will be as per Scheme Information Document. The portfolio of the scheme is subject to changes within the provisions of the Scheme Information document of the Scheme.
32
MACRO
PARAMETERS
• Current Account Deficit
• Interest Rates
• Fiscal Deficit
• Inflation
• Capex Investments • New Projects cleared, etc
• Purchasing Manager Index • Business Confidence Index
• Sales of various consumer discretionary products, etc.
• DM Growth Outlook
• DM Policy Outlook
• China Growth Outlook
• China Policy Stance
INVESTMENT
INDICATORS
BUSINESS &
CONSUMER
SENTIMENT
GLOBAL
FACTORS
• IIP Growth
• Credit Growth
Investment Approach – Themes
The investment approach
is then determined by
classifying investment
themes basis Global &
Domestic Growth and
Business Cycle
33
GlobalGrowth
Domestic Growth
Global Growth: Strong
Domestic Growth: Strong
Global Growth: Strong
Domestic Growth: Weak
Global Growth: Weak
Domestic Growth: Weak
Global Growth: Weak
Domestic Growth: Strong
BLUE SKYPIGGY BACKING
DARK CLOUD RIDER
BLUE SKY – STRONG GLOBAL GROWTH + STRONG DOMESTIC GROWTH
Investment Portfolio
GLOBAL
CYCLICALS
SECTORS TO LOOK OUT FOR
• Metals • Mining • Oil, etc.
GLOBAL CYCLICALS (Sectors to look out for)
DOMESTIC
CYCLICALS
SECTORS TO LOOK OUT FOR
• Consumer Durables
• Capital Goods
• Banking • Auto
• Infrastructure
DOMESTIC CYCLICALS (Sectors to look out for)
34
The stocks/sectors mentioned in this slide do not constitute any recommendation and ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund may or may not have any future position in these stocks/sectors. The asset allocation and investment strategy will be
as per Scheme Information Document. The portfolio of the scheme is subject to changes within the provisions of the Scheme Information document of the Scheme.
DARK CLOUD –
WEAK GLOBAL GROWTH + WEAK DOMESTIC GROWTH
RIDER –
WEAK GLOBAL GROWTH + STRONG DOMESTIC GROWTH
Investment Portfolio
DOMESTIC DEFENSIVES (Sectors to look out for)
DOMESTIC
DEFENSIVES
SECTORS TO LOOK OUT FOR
DOMESTIC
CYCLICALS
SECTORS TO LOOK OUT FOR
• Consumer Durables
• Capital Goods
• Banking • Auto
• Infrastructure
• Telecom
• Utilities
• Power
• FMCG, etc.
DOMESTIC CYCLICALS (Sectors to look out for)
35
The stocks/sectors mentioned in this slide do not constitute any recommendation and ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund may or may not have any future position in these stocks/sectors. The asset allocation and investment strategy will be
as per Scheme Information Document. The portfolio of the scheme is subject to changes within the provisions of the Scheme Information document of the Scheme.
Investment Portfolio
The stocks/sectors mentioned in this slide do not constitute any recommendation and ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund may or may not have any future position in these stocks/sectors. The asset allocation and investment
strategy will be as per Scheme Information Document. The portfolio of the scheme is subject to changes within the provisions of the Scheme Information document of the Scheme.
36
SECTORS TO LOOK OUT FOR
GLOBAL CYCLICALS
(Sectors to look out for)
• Metals
• Mining
• Oil, etc.
EXPORT
ORIENTED
SECTORS TO LOOK OUT FOR
EXPORT ORIENTED
(Sectors to look out for)
• IT
• Pharmaceuticals
• Auto Ancillaries, etc.
SECTORS TO LOOK OUT FOR
DEFENSIVES
(Sectors to look out for)
• Telecom
• FMCG
• Utilities, etc.
PIGGY BACKING – STRONG GLOBAL GROWTH + WEAK DOMESTIC GROWTH
DOMESTIC
DEFENSIVESGLOBAL
CYCLICALS
Alpha Generation Strategy
The stocks/sectors mentioned in this slide do not constitute any recommendation and ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund may or may not have any future position in these stocks/sectors. The asset allocation and investment
strategy will be as per Scheme Information Document. The portfolio of the scheme is subject to changes within the provisions of the Scheme Information document of the Scheme.
Dec/03
May/06
Oct/08
Mar/11
Aug/13
Jan/16
Jun/18
(2003-2004)
Global Outlook: Growth
Domestic Outlook: Recovery
Sectors that performed:
Banks & Capital Goods
(2008-2009)
Global Outlook:
Weak Growth
Domestic Outlook:
Strong Recovery
Sectors that
performed:
Banks & Auto
(2011-2012)
Global Outlook:
Weak Growth
Domestic Outlook:
Slowdown
Sectors that
performed:
Tech, Pharma, FMCG
(2013-2014)
Global Outlook: Neutral
Domestic Outlook: Recovery
Sectors that performed:
Banks & Auto
(2018-2020)
Global Outlook:
Strong Growth
Domestic
Outlook:
Recession
Sectors that
performed:
Tech, Pharma,
FMCG
BLUE SKY RIDER
DARK
CLOUD
RIDER
PIGGY
BACKING
Sep/20
37
Current Domestic
Macro Scenario
38
Repo Rates in India are at significantly low levels. Low capacity utilization numbers indicate that India has
excess capacity if demand picks up pace
Abundant Liquidity & Excess Capacity
39
8.0
4.0
3.5
4.5
5.5
6.5
7.5
8.5
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
India Repo Rate (%)
79.0
63.7
60.0
65.0
70.0
75.0
80.0
2011
2012
2012
2013
2013
2014
2014
2015
2015
2016
2016
2017
2017
2018
2018
2019
2019
2020
Capacity Utilization (%, 4QMA)
Source: Edelweiss Research, RBI. Data as of June 30, 2020.
Percentage of Cases Testing
Positive Have Dropped
Recovery Rate Has Improved Coupled with
Declining Death Rate
Subsiding COVID Cases
40
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
6-Mar
13-Apr
21-May
28-Jun
5-Aug
12-Sep
20-Oct
27-Nov
%testedpositive
CasesinMillions
Cumulatived Tested % tested positive (RS)
-0.5%
0.5%
1.5%
2.5%
3.5%
4%
24%
44%
64%
84%
6-Mar
13-Apr
21-May
28-Jun
5-Aug
12-Sep
20-Oct
27-Nov
DeathRate
RecoveryRate
Recovery rate (recovered to gross cases)
Death rate (Deaths to gross cases) - RS
Source: Morgan Stanley Research. Data as of Nov 27, 2020. RS- Right Side denotes what Y axis stands for in the graph
Improving GDP Growth Rate Correction in Real Estate Prices
Economic Growth & Real Estate
41
7.0% 6.6% 5.8% 5.0% 4.5% 4.7%
3.1%
-23.9%
-7.5%
-30.0%
-25.0%
-20.0%
-15.0%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
Q2FY19
Q3FY19
Q4FY19
Q1FY20
Q2FY20
Q3FY20
Q4FY20
Q1FY21
Q2FY21
India GDP Data
2,618
2,292
1000
1500
2000
2500
Dec/17
May/1
8
Oct/18
Mar/19
Aug/19
Jan/20
Jun/20
Nov/20
S&P BSE Realty Index
Source: MFIE, NSO. Past performance may or may not sustain in future. MFI Explorer is a tool provided by ICRA Online Ltd. For their standard disclaimer please visit http://www.icraonline.com/legal/standard-
disclaimer.html.
Current Macro Economic Scenario
• Significant Monetary and Fiscal Stimulus has been delivered by Global economies in CY2020 in the
wake of COVID-19 crisis
• This was primarily to deal with growth slowdown resulting from COVID-19 led lockdowns
• Monetary Policy support from Global Central Banks is expected to continue
• With significant global liquidity, India among other emerging markets is expected to do well
• Indian Economy seems to be getting back on track with improvement in growth, better than anticipated
Q2FY21 results, earnings upgrades and subsiding COVID cases
• Since Domestic growth is expected to improve further given good liquidity and global growth is
expected to be neutral due to increase in second wave of COVID infections in select developed
economies and subdued earnings, we believe we are in the „Rider‟ Phase
• Hence, we believe, investment in Domestic Cyclicals like Corporate Banks, Capital Goods, Metals &
Infrastructure and Real Estate is expected to do well
42
The stocks/sectors mentioned in this slide do not constitute any recommendation and ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund may or may not have any future position in these stocks/sectors
Investment Portfolio – Current Business Cycle
Rider – Neutral Global Growth + Recovery in Domestic Growth
DOMESTIC
CYCLICALS
SECTORS TO LOOK OUT FOR
43
Metals are considered as Global Cyclicals. he stocks/sectors mentioned in this slide do not constitute any recommendation and ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund may or may not have any future position in these stocks/sectors. The asset
allocation and investment strategy will be as per Scheme Information Document. The portfolio of the scheme is subject to changes within the provisions of the Scheme Information document of the Scheme.
METALS BANKING CAPITAL GOODS INFRASTRUCTURE
Our Experience In Macro Calls
YEAR CALL RATIONALE OUTCOME
2012-13 Invest in Global Funds
Inflation and Current Account Deficit at
alarming levels
Launched ICICI Prudential US Bluechip Equity Fund and
gave a strong buy call on Exports and Services sector.
S&P 500 delivered 20% CAGR from Dec-12 to Dec-14
2013-14
Invest in Infrastructure,
Banking, Small & Midcap Funds
Strong Govt. Mandate, expectations of NPA
resolution, expectation of fall in interest rates
Launched ICICI Prudential Value Fund - Series. S&P
BSE Midcap TRI & S&P BSE Smallcap TRI delivered
31% & 36% CAGR respectively from Dec-13 to Dec-15
2017 Invest in Technology Fund
Expensive currency, global growth expected
to be better than domestic growth
S&P BSE IT TRI delivered 36% absolute returns from
Nov-17 to Nov-18
2018 Invest in Gold
NBFC loan book expansion in weak income
environment, low earnings growth & market
volatility
Gold delivered 10% absolute returns from Jan-18 to
Jan-19
2020 Aggressively invest in G-Sec
Slowdown in growth and inflation. RBI
interventions increase in the wake of COVID-19
Crisil Dynamic Gilt Index delivered 3% absolute returns
from May 1, 2020 to July 17, 2020
44
ETF – Exchange Traded Funds. Source – MFIE. The stocks/sectors mentioned in this slide do not constitute any recommendation and ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund may or may not have any future position in these stocks/sectors. Past
performance may or may not sustain in future. MFI Explorer is a tool provided by ICRA Online Ltd. For their standard disclaimer please visit http://www.icraonline.com/legal/standard-disclaimer.html.
Key Takeaways About The Scheme
45
Pure Top Down Approach
Macro based fund
Not a Value/Contra/Special Situation etc.
Opportunistic and Nimble in terms of sector allocation
No cap on market cap/sector/themes
Hassle free approach – No stress of changing themes basis Business Cycle
Long Term Approach
The stocks/sectors mentioned in this slide do not constitute any recommendation and ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund may or may not have any future position in these stocks/sectors. The asset allocation and investment strategy will be
as per Scheme Information Document. The portfolio of the scheme is subject to changes within the provisions of the Scheme Information document of the Scheme.
Portfolio Features
46
Type of Scheme An open ended equity scheme following business cycles based investing theme
Plans
ICICI Prudential Business Cycle Fund &
ICICI Prudential Business Cycle Fund – Direct
Options Growth & Dividend
Minimum Application Amount Rs. 5,000 (plus in multiples of Re.1)
Minimum Additional Application Amount Rs. 1,000 (plus in multiples of Re.1)
Minimum Redemption Amount Any amount
Entry Load Not applicable
Exit Load
Upto 12 Months 1% of applicable NAV
More than 12 Months Nil
Fund Manager Anish Tawakley, Ihab Dalwai & Manish Banthia (involved in identifying business cycles)
Benchmark Index Nifty 500 TRI
SIP / SWP / STP Available
In addition to the fund managers managing this fund, overseas investment will be managed by Ms. Priyanka Khandelwal
Riskometers
47
ICICI Prudential US Bluechip Equity Fund (an open ended equity scheme investing predominantlyin securities of large cap companies listed in the
United States of America) is suitable for investors who are seeking*:
 Long term wealth creation
 An open ended equity scheme primarily investing in equity and equity related securities of companies listed on recognized stock
exchanges in the United States of America
*Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them
Riskometer & Disclaimer
ICICI Prudential Business Cycle Fund (An open ended equity scheme following business
cycles based investing theme) is suitable for investors who are seeking*:
Long Term wealth creation
An equity scheme that invests in Indian markets with focus on riding business cycles through dynamic
allocation between various sectors and stocks at different stages of business cycles
*Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them.
MUTUAL FUND INVESTMENTS ARE SUBJECT TO MARKET RISKS, READ ALL SCHEME RELATED DOCUMENTS CAREFULLY.
All figures and other data given in this document are dated. The same may or may not be relevant at a future date. The AMC takes no responsibility of updating any data/information in this material from time to time. The
information shall not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent of ICICI Prudential Asset
Management Company Limited. Prospective investors are advised to consult their own legal, tax and financial advisors to determine possible tax, legal and other finan- cial implication or consequence of subscribing to
the units of ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund. Data source: Bloomberg, except as mentioned specifically.
Disclaimer: In the preparation of the material contained in this document, ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company Ltd. (the AMC) has used information that is publicly available, including informa- tion developed in-
house. Some of the material used in the document may have been obtained from members/persons other than the AMC and/or its affiliates and which may have been made available to the AMC and/or to its affiliates.
Information gathered and material used in this document is believed to be from reliable sources. The AMC however does not warrant the accuracy, reasonableness and / or completeness of any information. We have
included statements / opinions / recommendations in this document, which contain words, or phrases such as “will”, “expect”, “should”, “believe” and similar expressions or variations of such expressions, that are
“forward looking statements”. Actual results may differ materially from those suggested by the forward looking statements due to risk or uncertainties associated with our expectations with respect to, but not limited to,
exposure to market risks, general economic and political conditions in India and other countries globally, which have an impact on our services and / or investments, the monetary and interest policies of India, inflation,
deflation, unanticipated turbulence in interest rates, foreign exchange rates, equity prices or other rates or prices etc. ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company Limited (including its affiliates), the Mutual Fund, The
Trust and any of its officers, directors, personnel and employees, shall not liable for any loss, damage of any nature, including but not limited to direct, indirect, punitive, special, exemplary, consequential, as also any loss
of profit in any way arising from the use of this material in any manner. Further, the information contained herein should not be construed as forecast or promise. The recipient alone shall be fully responsible/are liable for
any decision taken on this material.
48
The Greatest Lessons Regarding Cycles Are Learned Through
Experience…as In The Adage “Experience Is What You Got
When You Didn‟t Get What You Wanted”
Howard Marks
(Mastering the Market Cycle)
THANK YOU
49

More Related Content

What's hot

ICICI Prudential NASDAQ 100 Index Fund - One Pager
ICICI Prudential NASDAQ 100 Index Fund - One PagerICICI Prudential NASDAQ 100 Index Fund - One Pager
ICICI Prudential NASDAQ 100 Index Fund - One Pagericiciprumf
 
Steeper the climb sweeter the view- Fixed Income Update
Steeper the climb sweeter the view- Fixed Income UpdateSteeper the climb sweeter the view- Fixed Income Update
Steeper the climb sweeter the view- Fixed Income Updateiciciprumf
 
iPru-IT ETF- one pager
iPru-IT ETF- one pageriPru-IT ETF- one pager
iPru-IT ETF- one pagericiciprumf
 
DSP Regular Savings Fund
DSP Regular Savings FundDSP Regular Savings Fund
DSP Regular Savings FundDSP Mutual Fund
 
Presenting ICICI Prudential Flexicap Fund
Presenting ICICI Prudential Flexicap FundPresenting ICICI Prudential Flexicap Fund
Presenting ICICI Prudential Flexicap Fundiciciprumf
 
ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund- Valuations Perspective November 2020
ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund- Valuations Perspective November 2020ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund- Valuations Perspective November 2020
ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund- Valuations Perspective November 2020iciciprumf
 
Dsp floater fund nfo presentation
Dsp floater fund nfo presentationDsp floater fund nfo presentation
Dsp floater fund nfo presentationDSP Mutual Fund
 
Market Musings- Fixed Income
Market Musings- Fixed IncomeMarket Musings- Fixed Income
Market Musings- Fixed Incomeiciciprumf
 
Presenting ICICI Prudential Flexicap Fund
Presenting ICICI Prudential Flexicap FundPresenting ICICI Prudential Flexicap Fund
Presenting ICICI Prudential Flexicap Fundiciciprumf
 
Time to add Equities
Time to add EquitiesTime to add Equities
Time to add Equitiesiciciprumf
 
ICICI Prudential-IT-ETF
ICICI Prudential-IT-ETFICICI Prudential-IT-ETF
ICICI Prudential-IT-ETFiciciprumf
 
DSP Dynamic Asset Allocation Fund
DSP Dynamic Asset Allocation FundDSP Dynamic Asset Allocation Fund
DSP Dynamic Asset Allocation FundDSP Mutual Fund
 

What's hot (20)

DSP Mid Cap Fund
DSP Mid Cap FundDSP Mid Cap Fund
DSP Mid Cap Fund
 
ICICI Prudential NASDAQ 100 Index Fund - One Pager
ICICI Prudential NASDAQ 100 Index Fund - One PagerICICI Prudential NASDAQ 100 Index Fund - One Pager
ICICI Prudential NASDAQ 100 Index Fund - One Pager
 
DSP Equal Nifty 50 Fund
DSP Equal Nifty 50 FundDSP Equal Nifty 50 Fund
DSP Equal Nifty 50 Fund
 
Steeper the climb sweeter the view- Fixed Income Update
Steeper the climb sweeter the view- Fixed Income UpdateSteeper the climb sweeter the view- Fixed Income Update
Steeper the climb sweeter the view- Fixed Income Update
 
iPru-IT ETF- one pager
iPru-IT ETF- one pageriPru-IT ETF- one pager
iPru-IT ETF- one pager
 
DSP Regular Savings Fund
DSP Regular Savings FundDSP Regular Savings Fund
DSP Regular Savings Fund
 
DSP Flexi Cap Fund
DSP Flexi Cap FundDSP Flexi Cap Fund
DSP Flexi Cap Fund
 
DSP Top 100 Equity Fund
DSP Top 100 Equity FundDSP Top 100 Equity Fund
DSP Top 100 Equity Fund
 
Presenting ICICI Prudential Flexicap Fund
Presenting ICICI Prudential Flexicap FundPresenting ICICI Prudential Flexicap Fund
Presenting ICICI Prudential Flexicap Fund
 
DSP Quant Fund
DSP Quant FundDSP Quant Fund
DSP Quant Fund
 
DSP Value Fund
DSP Value FundDSP Value Fund
DSP Value Fund
 
ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund- Valuations Perspective November 2020
ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund- Valuations Perspective November 2020ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund- Valuations Perspective November 2020
ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund- Valuations Perspective November 2020
 
Dsp floater fund nfo presentation
Dsp floater fund nfo presentationDsp floater fund nfo presentation
Dsp floater fund nfo presentation
 
Market Musings- Fixed Income
Market Musings- Fixed IncomeMarket Musings- Fixed Income
Market Musings- Fixed Income
 
Presenting ICICI Prudential Flexicap Fund
Presenting ICICI Prudential Flexicap FundPresenting ICICI Prudential Flexicap Fund
Presenting ICICI Prudential Flexicap Fund
 
DSP Equity Fund
DSP Equity FundDSP Equity Fund
DSP Equity Fund
 
Time to add Equities
Time to add EquitiesTime to add Equities
Time to add Equities
 
ICICI Prudential-IT-ETF
ICICI Prudential-IT-ETFICICI Prudential-IT-ETF
ICICI Prudential-IT-ETF
 
DSP Dynamic Asset Allocation Fund
DSP Dynamic Asset Allocation FundDSP Dynamic Asset Allocation Fund
DSP Dynamic Asset Allocation Fund
 
DSP Focus Fund
DSP Focus FundDSP Focus Fund
DSP Focus Fund
 

Similar to ICICI Prudential Business Cycle Fund

ICICI Prudential Business Cycle Fund for Mar 2024.pptx
ICICI Prudential Business Cycle Fund for Mar 2024.pptxICICI Prudential Business Cycle Fund for Mar 2024.pptx
ICICI Prudential Business Cycle Fund for Mar 2024.pptxAjayArora284372
 
Axis Business Cycles Fund- NFO PPT.PDF
Axis Business Cycles Fund- NFO PPT.PDFAxis Business Cycles Fund- NFO PPT.PDF
Axis Business Cycles Fund- NFO PPT.PDFNiharikakaushik5
 
Portfolio Management PowerPoint Presentation Slides
Portfolio Management PowerPoint Presentation SlidesPortfolio Management PowerPoint Presentation Slides
Portfolio Management PowerPoint Presentation SlidesSlideTeam
 
Portfolio Management Powerpoint Presentation Slides
Portfolio Management Powerpoint Presentation SlidesPortfolio Management Powerpoint Presentation Slides
Portfolio Management Powerpoint Presentation SlidesSlideTeam
 
DSP Midcap Fund Presentation March 23.pdf
DSP Midcap Fund Presentation March 23.pdfDSP Midcap Fund Presentation March 23.pdf
DSP Midcap Fund Presentation March 23.pdfDSP Mutual Fund
 
Investment Portfolio Management PowerPoint Presentation Slides
Investment Portfolio Management PowerPoint Presentation Slides Investment Portfolio Management PowerPoint Presentation Slides
Investment Portfolio Management PowerPoint Presentation Slides SlideTeam
 
IDFC Emerging Businesses Fund_Fund presentation
IDFC Emerging Businesses Fund_Fund presentationIDFC Emerging Businesses Fund_Fund presentation
IDFC Emerging Businesses Fund_Fund presentationIDFCJUBI
 
Private Wealth Management
Private Wealth ManagementPrivate Wealth Management
Private Wealth Managementmuc25610
 
Fund presentation
Fund presentationFund presentation
Fund presentationidfcmfjubi
 
IDFC Large Cap Fund_Fund presentation
IDFC Large Cap Fund_Fund presentationIDFC Large Cap Fund_Fund presentation
IDFC Large Cap Fund_Fund presentationIDFCJUBI
 
DSP Focus Fund Presentation December 2022.pdf
DSP Focus Fund Presentation December 2022.pdfDSP Focus Fund Presentation December 2022.pdf
DSP Focus Fund Presentation December 2022.pdfDSP Mutual Fund
 
IDFC Sterling Value Fund_Quarterly note
IDFC Sterling Value Fund_Quarterly noteIDFC Sterling Value Fund_Quarterly note
IDFC Sterling Value Fund_Quarterly noteRahulpathak154
 
IDFC Sterling Value Fund_Quarterly note
IDFC Sterling Value Fund_Quarterly noteIDFC Sterling Value Fund_Quarterly note
IDFC Sterling Value Fund_Quarterly noteJubiIDFCEquity
 
IDFC Sterling Value Fund_Quarterly note
IDFC Sterling Value Fund_Quarterly noteIDFC Sterling Value Fund_Quarterly note
IDFC Sterling Value Fund_Quarterly noteIDFCJUBI
 

Similar to ICICI Prudential Business Cycle Fund (20)

ICICI Prudential Business Cycle Fund for Mar 2024.pptx
ICICI Prudential Business Cycle Fund for Mar 2024.pptxICICI Prudential Business Cycle Fund for Mar 2024.pptx
ICICI Prudential Business Cycle Fund for Mar 2024.pptx
 
Axis Business Cycles Fund- NFO PPT.PDF
Axis Business Cycles Fund- NFO PPT.PDFAxis Business Cycles Fund- NFO PPT.PDF
Axis Business Cycles Fund- NFO PPT.PDF
 
Portfolio Management PowerPoint Presentation Slides
Portfolio Management PowerPoint Presentation SlidesPortfolio Management PowerPoint Presentation Slides
Portfolio Management PowerPoint Presentation Slides
 
Portfolio Management Powerpoint Presentation Slides
Portfolio Management Powerpoint Presentation SlidesPortfolio Management Powerpoint Presentation Slides
Portfolio Management Powerpoint Presentation Slides
 
DSP Midcap Fund
DSP Midcap FundDSP Midcap Fund
DSP Midcap Fund
 
DSP Midcap Fund
DSP Midcap FundDSP Midcap Fund
DSP Midcap Fund
 
DSP Midcap Fund Presentation March 23.pdf
DSP Midcap Fund Presentation March 23.pdfDSP Midcap Fund Presentation March 23.pdf
DSP Midcap Fund Presentation March 23.pdf
 
DSP Tax Saver Fund
DSP Tax Saver FundDSP Tax Saver Fund
DSP Tax Saver Fund
 
Investment Portfolio Management PowerPoint Presentation Slides
Investment Portfolio Management PowerPoint Presentation Slides Investment Portfolio Management PowerPoint Presentation Slides
Investment Portfolio Management PowerPoint Presentation Slides
 
Pembina apr13cp
Pembina apr13cpPembina apr13cp
Pembina apr13cp
 
IDFC Emerging Businesses Fund_Fund presentation
IDFC Emerging Businesses Fund_Fund presentationIDFC Emerging Businesses Fund_Fund presentation
IDFC Emerging Businesses Fund_Fund presentation
 
Private Wealth Management
Private Wealth ManagementPrivate Wealth Management
Private Wealth Management
 
Fund presentation
Fund presentationFund presentation
Fund presentation
 
IDFC Large Cap Fund_Fund presentation
IDFC Large Cap Fund_Fund presentationIDFC Large Cap Fund_Fund presentation
IDFC Large Cap Fund_Fund presentation
 
DSP Focus Fund
DSP Focus FundDSP Focus Fund
DSP Focus Fund
 
DSP Focus Fund
DSP Focus FundDSP Focus Fund
DSP Focus Fund
 
DSP Focus Fund Presentation December 2022.pdf
DSP Focus Fund Presentation December 2022.pdfDSP Focus Fund Presentation December 2022.pdf
DSP Focus Fund Presentation December 2022.pdf
 
IDFC Sterling Value Fund_Quarterly note
IDFC Sterling Value Fund_Quarterly noteIDFC Sterling Value Fund_Quarterly note
IDFC Sterling Value Fund_Quarterly note
 
IDFC Sterling Value Fund_Quarterly note
IDFC Sterling Value Fund_Quarterly noteIDFC Sterling Value Fund_Quarterly note
IDFC Sterling Value Fund_Quarterly note
 
IDFC Sterling Value Fund_Quarterly note
IDFC Sterling Value Fund_Quarterly noteIDFC Sterling Value Fund_Quarterly note
IDFC Sterling Value Fund_Quarterly note
 

More from iciciprumf

Debt Watch | ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund
Debt Watch | ICICI Prudential Mutual FundDebt Watch | ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund
Debt Watch | ICICI Prudential Mutual Fundiciciprumf
 
Debt Watch | ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund
Debt Watch | ICICI Prudential Mutual FundDebt Watch | ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund
Debt Watch | ICICI Prudential Mutual Fundiciciprumf
 
ICICI Prudential Large & Mid Cap Fund
ICICI Prudential Large & Mid Cap FundICICI Prudential Large & Mid Cap Fund
ICICI Prudential Large & Mid Cap Fundiciciprumf
 
Debt Watch | ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund
Debt Watch | ICICI Prudential Mutual FundDebt Watch | ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund
Debt Watch | ICICI Prudential Mutual Fundiciciprumf
 
Annual Outlook: 2024 | A Paradigm Shift
Annual Outlook: 2024 | A Paradigm ShiftAnnual Outlook: 2024 | A Paradigm Shift
Annual Outlook: 2024 | A Paradigm Shifticiciprumf
 
Debt Watch | ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund
Debt Watch | ICICI Prudential Mutual FundDebt Watch | ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund
Debt Watch | ICICI Prudential Mutual Fundiciciprumf
 
Debt Watch | ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund
Debt Watch | ICICI Prudential Mutual FundDebt Watch | ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund
Debt Watch | ICICI Prudential Mutual Fundiciciprumf
 
Equity Valuations Perspective | January 2024
Equity Valuations Perspective | January 2024Equity Valuations Perspective | January 2024
Equity Valuations Perspective | January 2024iciciprumf
 
Annual Outlook | 2024
Annual Outlook | 2024Annual Outlook | 2024
Annual Outlook | 2024iciciprumf
 
Debt Watch | ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund
Debt Watch | ICICI Prudential Mutual FundDebt Watch | ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund
Debt Watch | ICICI Prudential Mutual Fundiciciprumf
 
Debt Watch | ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund
Debt Watch | ICICI Prudential Mutual FundDebt Watch | ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund
Debt Watch | ICICI Prudential Mutual Fundiciciprumf
 
Debt Watch | ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund
Debt Watch | ICICI Prudential Mutual FundDebt Watch | ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund
Debt Watch | ICICI Prudential Mutual Fundiciciprumf
 
Monthly Market Outlook | Dec 2023
Monthly Market Outlook | Dec 2023Monthly Market Outlook | Dec 2023
Monthly Market Outlook | Dec 2023iciciprumf
 
Debt Watch | ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund
Debt Watch | ICICI Prudential Mutual FundDebt Watch | ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund
Debt Watch | ICICI Prudential Mutual Fundiciciprumf
 
Debt Watch | ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund
Debt Watch | ICICI Prudential Mutual FundDebt Watch | ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund
Debt Watch | ICICI Prudential Mutual Fundiciciprumf
 
Monthly Market Outlook | November 2023
Monthly Market Outlook | November 2023Monthly Market Outlook | November 2023
Monthly Market Outlook | November 2023iciciprumf
 
ICICI Prudential Equity Valuation Index | Nov 2023
ICICI Prudential Equity Valuation Index | Nov 2023 ICICI Prudential Equity Valuation Index | Nov 2023
ICICI Prudential Equity Valuation Index | Nov 2023 iciciprumf
 
Debt Watch | ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund
Debt Watch | ICICI Prudential Mutual FundDebt Watch | ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund
Debt Watch | ICICI Prudential Mutual Fundiciciprumf
 
Debt Watch | ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund
Debt Watch | ICICI Prudential Mutual FundDebt Watch | ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund
Debt Watch | ICICI Prudential Mutual Fundiciciprumf
 
Monthly Market Outlook | Oct 2023
Monthly Market Outlook | Oct 2023 Monthly Market Outlook | Oct 2023
Monthly Market Outlook | Oct 2023 iciciprumf
 

More from iciciprumf (20)

Debt Watch | ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund
Debt Watch | ICICI Prudential Mutual FundDebt Watch | ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund
Debt Watch | ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund
 
Debt Watch | ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund
Debt Watch | ICICI Prudential Mutual FundDebt Watch | ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund
Debt Watch | ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund
 
ICICI Prudential Large & Mid Cap Fund
ICICI Prudential Large & Mid Cap FundICICI Prudential Large & Mid Cap Fund
ICICI Prudential Large & Mid Cap Fund
 
Debt Watch | ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund
Debt Watch | ICICI Prudential Mutual FundDebt Watch | ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund
Debt Watch | ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund
 
Annual Outlook: 2024 | A Paradigm Shift
Annual Outlook: 2024 | A Paradigm ShiftAnnual Outlook: 2024 | A Paradigm Shift
Annual Outlook: 2024 | A Paradigm Shift
 
Debt Watch | ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund
Debt Watch | ICICI Prudential Mutual FundDebt Watch | ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund
Debt Watch | ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund
 
Debt Watch | ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund
Debt Watch | ICICI Prudential Mutual FundDebt Watch | ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund
Debt Watch | ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund
 
Equity Valuations Perspective | January 2024
Equity Valuations Perspective | January 2024Equity Valuations Perspective | January 2024
Equity Valuations Perspective | January 2024
 
Annual Outlook | 2024
Annual Outlook | 2024Annual Outlook | 2024
Annual Outlook | 2024
 
Debt Watch | ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund
Debt Watch | ICICI Prudential Mutual FundDebt Watch | ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund
Debt Watch | ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund
 
Debt Watch | ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund
Debt Watch | ICICI Prudential Mutual FundDebt Watch | ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund
Debt Watch | ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund
 
Debt Watch | ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund
Debt Watch | ICICI Prudential Mutual FundDebt Watch | ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund
Debt Watch | ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund
 
Monthly Market Outlook | Dec 2023
Monthly Market Outlook | Dec 2023Monthly Market Outlook | Dec 2023
Monthly Market Outlook | Dec 2023
 
Debt Watch | ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund
Debt Watch | ICICI Prudential Mutual FundDebt Watch | ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund
Debt Watch | ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund
 
Debt Watch | ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund
Debt Watch | ICICI Prudential Mutual FundDebt Watch | ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund
Debt Watch | ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund
 
Monthly Market Outlook | November 2023
Monthly Market Outlook | November 2023Monthly Market Outlook | November 2023
Monthly Market Outlook | November 2023
 
ICICI Prudential Equity Valuation Index | Nov 2023
ICICI Prudential Equity Valuation Index | Nov 2023 ICICI Prudential Equity Valuation Index | Nov 2023
ICICI Prudential Equity Valuation Index | Nov 2023
 
Debt Watch | ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund
Debt Watch | ICICI Prudential Mutual FundDebt Watch | ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund
Debt Watch | ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund
 
Debt Watch | ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund
Debt Watch | ICICI Prudential Mutual FundDebt Watch | ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund
Debt Watch | ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund
 
Monthly Market Outlook | Oct 2023
Monthly Market Outlook | Oct 2023 Monthly Market Outlook | Oct 2023
Monthly Market Outlook | Oct 2023
 

Recently uploaded

Independent Call Girl Number in Kurla Mumbai📲 Pooja Nehwal 9892124323 💞 Full ...
Independent Call Girl Number in Kurla Mumbai📲 Pooja Nehwal 9892124323 💞 Full ...Independent Call Girl Number in Kurla Mumbai📲 Pooja Nehwal 9892124323 💞 Full ...
Independent Call Girl Number in Kurla Mumbai📲 Pooja Nehwal 9892124323 💞 Full ...Pooja Nehwal
 
Best VIP Call Girls Noida Sector 18 Call Me: 8448380779
Best VIP Call Girls Noida Sector 18 Call Me: 8448380779Best VIP Call Girls Noida Sector 18 Call Me: 8448380779
Best VIP Call Girls Noida Sector 18 Call Me: 8448380779Delhi Call girls
 
CALL ON ➥8923113531 🔝Call Girls Gomti Nagar Lucknow best sexual service
CALL ON ➥8923113531 🔝Call Girls Gomti Nagar Lucknow best sexual serviceCALL ON ➥8923113531 🔝Call Girls Gomti Nagar Lucknow best sexual service
CALL ON ➥8923113531 🔝Call Girls Gomti Nagar Lucknow best sexual serviceanilsa9823
 
02_Fabio Colombo_Accenture_MeetupDora&Cybersecurity.pptx
02_Fabio Colombo_Accenture_MeetupDora&Cybersecurity.pptx02_Fabio Colombo_Accenture_MeetupDora&Cybersecurity.pptx
02_Fabio Colombo_Accenture_MeetupDora&Cybersecurity.pptxFinTech Belgium
 
(DIYA) Bhumkar Chowk Call Girls Just Call 7001035870 [ Cash on Delivery ] Pun...
(DIYA) Bhumkar Chowk Call Girls Just Call 7001035870 [ Cash on Delivery ] Pun...(DIYA) Bhumkar Chowk Call Girls Just Call 7001035870 [ Cash on Delivery ] Pun...
(DIYA) Bhumkar Chowk Call Girls Just Call 7001035870 [ Cash on Delivery ] Pun...ranjana rawat
 
Instant Issue Debit Cards - High School Spirit
Instant Issue Debit Cards - High School SpiritInstant Issue Debit Cards - High School Spirit
Instant Issue Debit Cards - High School Spiritegoetzinger
 
Stock Market Brief Deck (Under Pressure).pdf
Stock Market Brief Deck (Under Pressure).pdfStock Market Brief Deck (Under Pressure).pdf
Stock Market Brief Deck (Under Pressure).pdfMichael Silva
 
05_Annelore Lenoir_Docbyte_MeetupDora&Cybersecurity.pptx
05_Annelore Lenoir_Docbyte_MeetupDora&Cybersecurity.pptx05_Annelore Lenoir_Docbyte_MeetupDora&Cybersecurity.pptx
05_Annelore Lenoir_Docbyte_MeetupDora&Cybersecurity.pptxFinTech Belgium
 
Instant Issue Debit Cards - School Designs
Instant Issue Debit Cards - School DesignsInstant Issue Debit Cards - School Designs
Instant Issue Debit Cards - School Designsegoetzinger
 
VIP Call Girls Service Dilsukhnagar Hyderabad Call +91-8250192130
VIP Call Girls Service Dilsukhnagar Hyderabad Call +91-8250192130VIP Call Girls Service Dilsukhnagar Hyderabad Call +91-8250192130
VIP Call Girls Service Dilsukhnagar Hyderabad Call +91-8250192130Suhani Kapoor
 
VIP Call Girls LB Nagar ( Hyderabad ) Phone 8250192130 | ₹5k To 25k With Room...
VIP Call Girls LB Nagar ( Hyderabad ) Phone 8250192130 | ₹5k To 25k With Room...VIP Call Girls LB Nagar ( Hyderabad ) Phone 8250192130 | ₹5k To 25k With Room...
VIP Call Girls LB Nagar ( Hyderabad ) Phone 8250192130 | ₹5k To 25k With Room...Suhani Kapoor
 
(ANIKA) Budhwar Peth Call Girls Just Call 7001035870 [ Cash on Delivery ] Pun...
(ANIKA) Budhwar Peth Call Girls Just Call 7001035870 [ Cash on Delivery ] Pun...(ANIKA) Budhwar Peth Call Girls Just Call 7001035870 [ Cash on Delivery ] Pun...
(ANIKA) Budhwar Peth Call Girls Just Call 7001035870 [ Cash on Delivery ] Pun...ranjana rawat
 
High Class Call Girls Nagpur Grishma Call 7001035870 Meet With Nagpur Escorts
High Class Call Girls Nagpur Grishma Call 7001035870 Meet With Nagpur EscortsHigh Class Call Girls Nagpur Grishma Call 7001035870 Meet With Nagpur Escorts
High Class Call Girls Nagpur Grishma Call 7001035870 Meet With Nagpur Escortsranjana rawat
 
Top Rated Pune Call Girls Viman Nagar ⟟ 6297143586 ⟟ Call Me For Genuine Sex...
Top Rated  Pune Call Girls Viman Nagar ⟟ 6297143586 ⟟ Call Me For Genuine Sex...Top Rated  Pune Call Girls Viman Nagar ⟟ 6297143586 ⟟ Call Me For Genuine Sex...
Top Rated Pune Call Girls Viman Nagar ⟟ 6297143586 ⟟ Call Me For Genuine Sex...Call Girls in Nagpur High Profile
 
The Economic History of the U.S. Lecture 19.pdf
The Economic History of the U.S. Lecture 19.pdfThe Economic History of the U.S. Lecture 19.pdf
The Economic History of the U.S. Lecture 19.pdfGale Pooley
 
The Economic History of the U.S. Lecture 25.pdf
The Economic History of the U.S. Lecture 25.pdfThe Economic History of the U.S. Lecture 25.pdf
The Economic History of the U.S. Lecture 25.pdfGale Pooley
 
The Economic History of the U.S. Lecture 21.pdf
The Economic History of the U.S. Lecture 21.pdfThe Economic History of the U.S. Lecture 21.pdf
The Economic History of the U.S. Lecture 21.pdfGale Pooley
 
Pooja 9892124323 : Call Girl in Juhu Escorts Service Free Home Delivery
Pooja 9892124323 : Call Girl in Juhu Escorts Service Free Home DeliveryPooja 9892124323 : Call Girl in Juhu Escorts Service Free Home Delivery
Pooja 9892124323 : Call Girl in Juhu Escorts Service Free Home DeliveryPooja Nehwal
 
Vip Call US 📞 7738631006 ✅Call Girls In Sakinaka ( Mumbai )
Vip Call US 📞 7738631006 ✅Call Girls In Sakinaka ( Mumbai )Vip Call US 📞 7738631006 ✅Call Girls In Sakinaka ( Mumbai )
Vip Call US 📞 7738631006 ✅Call Girls In Sakinaka ( Mumbai )Pooja Nehwal
 

Recently uploaded (20)

Independent Call Girl Number in Kurla Mumbai📲 Pooja Nehwal 9892124323 💞 Full ...
Independent Call Girl Number in Kurla Mumbai📲 Pooja Nehwal 9892124323 💞 Full ...Independent Call Girl Number in Kurla Mumbai📲 Pooja Nehwal 9892124323 💞 Full ...
Independent Call Girl Number in Kurla Mumbai📲 Pooja Nehwal 9892124323 💞 Full ...
 
Best VIP Call Girls Noida Sector 18 Call Me: 8448380779
Best VIP Call Girls Noida Sector 18 Call Me: 8448380779Best VIP Call Girls Noida Sector 18 Call Me: 8448380779
Best VIP Call Girls Noida Sector 18 Call Me: 8448380779
 
CALL ON ➥8923113531 🔝Call Girls Gomti Nagar Lucknow best sexual service
CALL ON ➥8923113531 🔝Call Girls Gomti Nagar Lucknow best sexual serviceCALL ON ➥8923113531 🔝Call Girls Gomti Nagar Lucknow best sexual service
CALL ON ➥8923113531 🔝Call Girls Gomti Nagar Lucknow best sexual service
 
02_Fabio Colombo_Accenture_MeetupDora&Cybersecurity.pptx
02_Fabio Colombo_Accenture_MeetupDora&Cybersecurity.pptx02_Fabio Colombo_Accenture_MeetupDora&Cybersecurity.pptx
02_Fabio Colombo_Accenture_MeetupDora&Cybersecurity.pptx
 
(DIYA) Bhumkar Chowk Call Girls Just Call 7001035870 [ Cash on Delivery ] Pun...
(DIYA) Bhumkar Chowk Call Girls Just Call 7001035870 [ Cash on Delivery ] Pun...(DIYA) Bhumkar Chowk Call Girls Just Call 7001035870 [ Cash on Delivery ] Pun...
(DIYA) Bhumkar Chowk Call Girls Just Call 7001035870 [ Cash on Delivery ] Pun...
 
Instant Issue Debit Cards - High School Spirit
Instant Issue Debit Cards - High School SpiritInstant Issue Debit Cards - High School Spirit
Instant Issue Debit Cards - High School Spirit
 
Stock Market Brief Deck (Under Pressure).pdf
Stock Market Brief Deck (Under Pressure).pdfStock Market Brief Deck (Under Pressure).pdf
Stock Market Brief Deck (Under Pressure).pdf
 
05_Annelore Lenoir_Docbyte_MeetupDora&Cybersecurity.pptx
05_Annelore Lenoir_Docbyte_MeetupDora&Cybersecurity.pptx05_Annelore Lenoir_Docbyte_MeetupDora&Cybersecurity.pptx
05_Annelore Lenoir_Docbyte_MeetupDora&Cybersecurity.pptx
 
Instant Issue Debit Cards - School Designs
Instant Issue Debit Cards - School DesignsInstant Issue Debit Cards - School Designs
Instant Issue Debit Cards - School Designs
 
VIP Call Girls Service Dilsukhnagar Hyderabad Call +91-8250192130
VIP Call Girls Service Dilsukhnagar Hyderabad Call +91-8250192130VIP Call Girls Service Dilsukhnagar Hyderabad Call +91-8250192130
VIP Call Girls Service Dilsukhnagar Hyderabad Call +91-8250192130
 
VIP Call Girls LB Nagar ( Hyderabad ) Phone 8250192130 | ₹5k To 25k With Room...
VIP Call Girls LB Nagar ( Hyderabad ) Phone 8250192130 | ₹5k To 25k With Room...VIP Call Girls LB Nagar ( Hyderabad ) Phone 8250192130 | ₹5k To 25k With Room...
VIP Call Girls LB Nagar ( Hyderabad ) Phone 8250192130 | ₹5k To 25k With Room...
 
(ANIKA) Budhwar Peth Call Girls Just Call 7001035870 [ Cash on Delivery ] Pun...
(ANIKA) Budhwar Peth Call Girls Just Call 7001035870 [ Cash on Delivery ] Pun...(ANIKA) Budhwar Peth Call Girls Just Call 7001035870 [ Cash on Delivery ] Pun...
(ANIKA) Budhwar Peth Call Girls Just Call 7001035870 [ Cash on Delivery ] Pun...
 
High Class Call Girls Nagpur Grishma Call 7001035870 Meet With Nagpur Escorts
High Class Call Girls Nagpur Grishma Call 7001035870 Meet With Nagpur EscortsHigh Class Call Girls Nagpur Grishma Call 7001035870 Meet With Nagpur Escorts
High Class Call Girls Nagpur Grishma Call 7001035870 Meet With Nagpur Escorts
 
Top Rated Pune Call Girls Viman Nagar ⟟ 6297143586 ⟟ Call Me For Genuine Sex...
Top Rated  Pune Call Girls Viman Nagar ⟟ 6297143586 ⟟ Call Me For Genuine Sex...Top Rated  Pune Call Girls Viman Nagar ⟟ 6297143586 ⟟ Call Me For Genuine Sex...
Top Rated Pune Call Girls Viman Nagar ⟟ 6297143586 ⟟ Call Me For Genuine Sex...
 
The Economic History of the U.S. Lecture 19.pdf
The Economic History of the U.S. Lecture 19.pdfThe Economic History of the U.S. Lecture 19.pdf
The Economic History of the U.S. Lecture 19.pdf
 
The Economic History of the U.S. Lecture 25.pdf
The Economic History of the U.S. Lecture 25.pdfThe Economic History of the U.S. Lecture 25.pdf
The Economic History of the U.S. Lecture 25.pdf
 
The Economic History of the U.S. Lecture 21.pdf
The Economic History of the U.S. Lecture 21.pdfThe Economic History of the U.S. Lecture 21.pdf
The Economic History of the U.S. Lecture 21.pdf
 
(Vedika) Low Rate Call Girls in Pune Call Now 8250077686 Pune Escorts 24x7
(Vedika) Low Rate Call Girls in Pune Call Now 8250077686 Pune Escorts 24x7(Vedika) Low Rate Call Girls in Pune Call Now 8250077686 Pune Escorts 24x7
(Vedika) Low Rate Call Girls in Pune Call Now 8250077686 Pune Escorts 24x7
 
Pooja 9892124323 : Call Girl in Juhu Escorts Service Free Home Delivery
Pooja 9892124323 : Call Girl in Juhu Escorts Service Free Home DeliveryPooja 9892124323 : Call Girl in Juhu Escorts Service Free Home Delivery
Pooja 9892124323 : Call Girl in Juhu Escorts Service Free Home Delivery
 
Vip Call US 📞 7738631006 ✅Call Girls In Sakinaka ( Mumbai )
Vip Call US 📞 7738631006 ✅Call Girls In Sakinaka ( Mumbai )Vip Call US 📞 7738631006 ✅Call Girls In Sakinaka ( Mumbai )
Vip Call US 📞 7738631006 ✅Call Girls In Sakinaka ( Mumbai )
 

ICICI Prudential Business Cycle Fund

  • 1. An open ended equity scheme following business cycles based investing theme
  • 2. Phases of a Business Cycle 2 The chart is for illustrative purpose only Output Capacity Growth TrendGrowth Recession Slump Recovery Time
  • 3. How Business Cycle Actually Works Output Time Growth Recession Slump Recovery Capacity Growth Trend Macro Economic conditions and the Fiscal & Monetary Policy response by the Govt. & Central Banks, during an on-going Business Cycle may extend or shorten a Business Cycle basis conditions prevailing at the time. Such distortions often provides appropriate opportunities to invest 3 The chart is for illustrative purpose only
  • 4. Characteristics of Business Cycle Phases GROWTH RECESSION SLUMP RECOVERY Economic Conditions • Capacity utilisation above normal • Output growth strong • Corporate profitability also peaks. • Strong tax revenues • Markets not focussing on risk Appropriate Monetary Policy Response: Tightening/ Contractionary Economic Conditions • Capacity utilisation still above normal but falling • Output growth below trend • Tax revenues moderating Appropriate Monetary Policy Response: Moving from contractionary to neutral Economic Conditions • Capacity utilization below normal. • Growth also below trend. • Risk aversion very high. • Demand weak Appropriate Monetary Policy Response: Accommodative policy Economic Conditions • Growth – Picks Up • Credit Growth – Improves • Inflation – starts to increase • Govt. tax collection – starts picking up Appropriate Monetary Policy Response: Move from accommodative to neutral 4 The above list is illustrative and not exhaustive, there may be several other characteristics observed during each phase
  • 5. How To Identify A Business Cycle? – Few Examples Business Cycle in Growth Phase Business Cycle in Slump Phase Consumers and businesses feel confident Factories run at full capacity across all shifts Businesses plan expansion Employees have multiple job offers, Salary hikes Consumers buy discretionary goods, plan vacations (growth in tourism) Consumers and businesses nervous. Postponing spending Factories have idle capacity. Not operating all shifts Businesses cutting cost and capex Layoffs and Salary Freeze Consumers opt for spending cut 5 The above list is illustrative and not exhaustive. Capex – Capital Expenditure. The stocks/sectors mentioned in this slide do not constitute any recommendation and ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund may or may not have any future position in these stocks/sectors.
  • 7. Sector Impact – Business Cycle Sector Performance across Business Cycle phases SECTORS RECOVERY EXPANSION RECESSION SLUMP Financials Technology Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Pharmaceuticals Energy Real Estate Metals Utilities 7 Green shade indicates good performance, Amber shade indicates neutral performance and Red shade indicates poor performance. The stocks/sectors mentioned in this slide do not constitute any recommendation and ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund may or may not have any future position in these stocks/sectors
  • 8. Sector Impact – Business Cycle SLUMP ILLUSTRATION 1 – CEMENT INDUSTRY (CYCLICAL SECTOR) Particulars Remarks Cement bag capacity (Daily) 100 units Actual Demand (Daily) 40 units Revenue (Daily) 40*100 = Rs. 4,000 Fixed Cost (Daily) Rs. 1,000 Net Profit Rs. 3,000 GROWTH Particulars Remarks Cement bag capacity (Daily) 100 units Actual Demand (Daily) 90 units Revenue (Daily) 90*100 = Rs. 9,000 Fixed Cost (Daily) Rs. 1,000 Net Profit Rs. 8,000 • Capacity of Producing: 100 Cement Bags Daily • Sales Value of Cement Bag – INR 100 8 The above table is for illustrative purpose only. The stocks/sectors mentioned in this slide do not constitute any recommendation and ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund may or may not have any future position in these stocks/sectors
  • 9. Sector Impact – Business Cycle RECOVERY / GROWTH PHASE ILLUSTRATION 2 – BANKING (CYCLICAL SECTOR) • Increased Capex by companies • Increased requirement for raw materials, resources etc. by companies • Rise in income, discretionary spending by individuals, corporates Pick up in Sentiments, Demands, Credit. Banks tend to do well Strong GDP growth rate High inflation Rising interest rates 9 Capex – Capital Expenditure. The above explanation is for illustrative purpose only. The stocks/sectors mentioned in this slide do not constitute any recommendation and ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund may or may not have any future position in these stocks/sectors
  • 10. Sector Impact – Business Cycle WHEN THE GOING GETS TOUGH (SLUMP) ILLUSTRATION 3 – PHARMA & FMCG (DEFENSIVE SECTOR) Hey, despite this pandemic I still need… Medicines Food to survive Medicines Food 10 The above explanation is for illustrative purpose only. The stocks/sectors mentioned in this slide do not constitute any recommendation and ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund may or may not have any future position in these stocks/sectors Defensive sectors like Pharma & FMCG tend to do well even when economy is in slump
  • 12. Business Cycle Investing – Akin To Driving CONDITIONS WHEN DRIVING ON EXPRESSWAY Broad & Smooth roads Comfortable Journey Less Travel Time Efficient fuel consumption CONDUCIVE FOR SPEED @ 80-100 KMPH • Banks • Infrastructure • Real Estate • Capitall Goods CONDITIONS WHEN ECONOMY IS IN FULL SWING Good Macros Low interest rate environment Good Demand CONDUCIVE FOR INVESTMENT PORTFOLIO TO ALIGN TOWARDS 12 The above explanation is for illustrative purpose only. The stocks/sectors mentioned in this slide do not constitute any recommendation and ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund may or may not have any future position in these stocks/sectors. The asset allocation and investment strategy will be as per Scheme Information Document. The portfolio of the scheme is subject to changes within the provisions of the Scheme Information document of the Scheme.
  • 13. Business Cycle Investing – Akin To Driving CONDITIONS WHEN DRIVING ON A CITY HIGHWAY Average roads Less Comfortable Journey More travel time due to traffic Inefficient fuel consumption CONDUCIVE FOR SPEED @ 40-60 KMPH • Energy • Metals • Technology CONDITIONS WHEN ECONOMY IS IN MODERATE ZONE Average Macros Relatively high interest rate environment Average Demand CONDUCIVE FOR INVESTMENT PORTFOLIO TO ALIGN TOWARDS 13 The above explanation is for illustrative purpose only. The stocks/sectors mentioned in this slide do not constitute any recommendation and ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund may or may not have any future position in these stocks/sectors. The asset allocation and investment strategy will be as per Scheme Information Document. The portfolio of the scheme is subject to changes within the provisions of the Scheme Information document of the Scheme.
  • 14. Business Cycle Investing – Akin To Driving CONDITIONS WHEN DRIVING IN A VILLAGE Narrow roads Uncomfortable Journey More Travel Time High fuel consumption CONDUCIVE FOR SPEED @ 10-30 KMPH • Technology • Pharmaceuticals • Power • Telecom CONDITIONS WHEN ECONOMY IS IN A RECESSIONARY ZONE Poor Macros Poor Growth prospects Low Demand CONDUCIVE FOR INVESTMENT PORTFOLIO TO ALIGN TOWARDS 14 The above explanation is for illustrative purpose only. The stocks/sectors mentioned in this slide do not constitute any recommendation and ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund may or may not have any future position in these stocks/sectors. The asset allocation and investment strategy will be as per Scheme Information Document. The portfolio of the scheme is subject to changes within the provisions of the Scheme Information document of the Scheme.
  • 16. P/E – Price to Earnings, P/B – Price to Book Windshield Mirror Vs. Rear View Mirror WINDSHIELD MIRROR REAR VIEW MIRROR Future earnings potential AIMS TO FOCUS ON WAY FORWARD Economic indicators Future market share growth Future project pipeline Historical returns AIMS TO FOCUS ON HISTORICAL DATA Long term average PE + PB Track record of dividend yield Category Flows 16
  • 17. BOTTOM-UP APPROACH ORIENTED FUND BUSINESS CYCLE ORIENTED FUND (TOP-DOWN APPROACH) BUSINESS CYCLE INVESTING – An Investment Style Which Focuses on Macros WAY FORWARD • Economic indicators • Future earnings potential • Future market share growth • Future project pipeline HISTORICAL DATA • Long term average PE + PB • Historical returns • Track record of dividend yield • Flows to that category WAY FORWARD • Economic indicators • Policy response • Growth • Inflation HISTORICAL DATA 17 Heavy Light Heavy Light • Management track record • Valuations (P/E & P/B) P/E – Price to Earnings, P/B – Price to Book Weightage Weightage
  • 18. Historical Turning Points in BUSINESS CYCLE 18
  • 19. Strong recovery in Domestic + Global Growth = Strong Recovery Phase 2003-2004: Turning Point CONTRIBUTING FACTORS TO DOMESTIC GROWTH • Low Interest Rates, 10 year G-sec at 5%, Current Account Surplus @ 2.3%, Low Inflation ~ 3.5%, Currency valuations cheap • Low Household & Corporate leverage • Bank NPAs and resolution • Cheap land and labor Banking & Capital Goods performed well post 2003, as the leveraging cycle, capex and infrastructure picked-up 19 408 100 846 0 200 400 600 800 Dec/03 Dec/04 Dec/05 Dec/06 Dec/07 IndexValuesRe-basedto100 S&P BSE Bankex & Capital Goods S&P BSE Bankex S&P BSE CG Source: MFIE. NPA – Non Performing Assets. Time period for performance considered is from 31-Dec-03 to 31-Dec-07. The stocks/sectors mentioned in this slide do not constitute any recommendation and ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund may or may not have any future position in these stocks/sectors. Past performance may or may not sustain in future. MFI Explorer is a tool provided by ICRA Online Ltd. For their standard disclaimer please visit http://www.icraonline.com/legal/standard-disclaimer.html.
  • 20. Slow Domestic Growth + Weak Global Growth = Slowdown/Recession Phase 2011-2012: Turning Point CONTRIBUTING FACTORS TO DOMESTIC GROWTH • Weaker macro environment – Pro cyclically High fiscal deficit, High Inflation, High Current Account Deficit • Expensive Currency • High corporate leverage, neutral household leverage Pharmaceuticals & Technology performed well post 2012, as INR depreciated & Current Account Deficit was high 20 127 100 160 90 110 130 150 170 Dec/12 Jan/13 Feb/13 Mar/13 Apr/13 May/13 Jun/13 Jul/13 Aug/13 Sep/13 Oct/13 Nov/13 Dec/13 IndexValuesarere-basedto100 Nifty Pharma & S&P BSE IT Index Nifty Pharma S&P BSE IT Source: MFIE. Time period for performance considered is from 31-Dec-12 to 31-Dec-13. The stocks/sectors mentioned in this slide do not constitute any recommendation and ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund may or may not have any future position in these stocks/sectors. Past performance may or may not sustain in future. MFI Explorer is a tool provided by ICRA Online Ltd. For their standard disclaimer please visit http://www.icraonline.com/legal/standard- disclaimer.html.
  • 21. Weak Domestic Growth + Strong Global Growth = Global Recovery / Domestic Slowdown Phase 2018: Turning Point CONTRIBUTING FACTORS TO DOMESTIC GROWTH • Demonetization – a massive regulatory tightening, however weaker policy response to counter it including tight monetary conditions • Pro-cyclical regulatory environment – NBFCs loan book expansion driving household leverage in a weak income environment • Low corporate leverage but low earnings Pharmaceuticals & Technology performed well post 2018, due to strong Global Cycle 21 133 154 70 90 110 130 150 Dec/18 Mar/19 May/19 Aug/19 Oct/19 Jan/20 Mar/20 Jun/20 Aug/20 Nov/20 IndexValuesarere-basedto100 Nifty Pharma & S&P BSE IT Index Nifty Pharma S&P BSE IT Source: MFIE, NBFC – Non Banking Financial Company. Time period for performance considered is from 31-Dec-18 to 30-Nov-20. The stocks/sectors mentioned in this slide do not constitute any recommendation and ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund may or may not have any future position in these stocks/sectors. Past performance may or may not sustain in future. MFI Explorer is a tool provided by ICRA Online Ltd. For their standard disclaimer please visit http://www.icraonline.com/legal/standard-disclaimer.html.
  • 22. Why BUSINESS CYCLE investing at this juncture – Macroeconomic Factors are going to be critical 22
  • 23. Shift From High To Low Interest Rates Over the last decade, Global Central Banks including India & US, have supported growth by maintaining a low interest rate environment Any change in the interest rate stance may trigger Business Cycle Phase change 23 8.0 4.0 3.5 4.5 5.5 6.5 7.5 8.5 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 India Repo Rate (%) 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 US 3Y, 5Y, 10Y Treasury Yields (%) USGG3YR Index USGG5YR Index USGG12M Index Source: RBI, Edelweiss Research. Data as of Nov 30, 2020
  • 24. Shift In The Amount Of Fiscal Stimulus Global Economies have expanded their balance sheets manifold in the last decade thereby increasing liquidity. Any change in the stance on quantum or a decline in stimulus may trigger Business Cycle phase change 24 15236 27405 15000 19000 23000 27000 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 US Treasury Public Debt Outstanding (USD Bn) 8.5 15.1 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Global broad money supply growth (US, Europe & China) Source: Edelweiss Research. Data as of Nov 30, 2020
  • 25. Shift In Volatility Equity markets delivered decent returns in relatively less volatile period due to ample liquidity. With limited room for rate cuts and fiscal stimulus going forward, Business Cycle Phase may change with reversal in stance 25 -60% -30% 0% 30% 60% 90% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2000-2009 Equity Market Returns (Nifty 50 Index) Avg. Returns: 21% -30% -10% 10% 30% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2010-2019 Equity Market Returns (Nifty 50 Index) Avg. Returns: 10% Source: MFIE. Past performance may or may not sustain in future. MFI Explorer is a tool provided by ICRA Online Ltd. For their standard disclaimer please visit http://www.icraonline.com/legal/standard-disclaimer.html.
  • 26. Shift In Number of COVID Cases – Peak To Trough Except for the US, COVID-19 Infection curve appears to be flattening. Vaccines have already been approved and are being used in some countries. Business Cycle may change going forward with mass availability of COVID vaccine & on-going development around COVID vaccine 26 0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000 140000 160000 180000 200000 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 Day1 Day8 Day15 Day22 Day29 Day36 Day43 Day50 Day57 Day64 Day71 Day78 Day85 Day92 Day99 Day106 Day113 Day120 Day127 Day134 Day141 Day148 Day155 Day162 Day169 Day176 Day183 Day190 Day197 Day204 Day211 Day218 Day225 Day232 Day239 Day246 Day253 Day260 Day267 Day274 Day281 Day288 Day295 Day302 Day309 Italy France Spain Iran Russia UK US - RHS India - RHS Brazil - RHS Source: JM Financial. Data as of Nov 30, 2020
  • 27. To Sum Up… LAST DECADE Scenario Easy Monetary Policy + Interest Rate Cuts = led to Lower Volatility NEXT DECADE Scenario Limited room for rate cut + Elevated Global equity valuations = May result in Volatility Strategy Positive for equities as an asset class and long duration schemes Strategy 1) Be nimble as the macro environment may change 2) Schemes which aim to move between sectors swiftly 3) Volatility may be high. Hence a portfolio capable of prudently positioning between various sectors may be suitable 27
  • 29. Business Cycle InvestingOutput Time Invests across Marketcap No capping / minimum requirements Invests across Themes No capping / limits towards a particular theme Invests across Sectors No capping / limits towards a particular sector Top Down Approach of investing Not a Value / Contra / Special Situation/ Growth style of investment 02 03 04 29 01 The asset allocation and investment strategy will be as per Scheme Information Document. The portfolio of the scheme is subject to changes within the provisions of the Scheme Information document of the Scheme.
  • 30. About ICICI Prudential Business Cycle Fund INVESTMENT PHILOSOPHY Aim to identify and invest in opportunities across sectors/themes/market caps, based on prevailing business cycle INVESTMENT PROCESS • The Fund Manager & Analysts decide the investment theme basis prevailing market cycle • The Fund Management team identifies opportunities in that particular sector INVESTMENT APPROACH Pure top-down approach based on various macro indicators – inflation, growth, deficit, etc. INVESTMENT UNIVERSE Opportunities from Nifty 500 TRI universe will be considered for investment SECURITY SELECTION Post identifying sectors based on the Business Cycle, aim to select stocks basis various financial parameters EVALUATION Periodic/event based assessment of the macro economic environment and subsequent investment approach 30 The asset allocation and investment strategy will be as per Scheme Information Document. The portfolio of the scheme is subject to changes within the provisions of the Scheme Information document of the Scheme.
  • 31. Robust Investment Process & Portfolio Construct ICICI PRUDENTIAL BUSINESS CYCLE FUND Monitor macro indicators – GLOBAL & DOMESTIC Aims to identify Business Cycle – GLOBAL & DOMESTIC Aims to identify suitable Theme / Sectors Meeting of the Fund Managers & Analysts Finalize Theme/Sectors/Stocks Aims to identify stocks 31 The asset allocation and investment strategy will be as per Scheme Information Document. The portfolio of the scheme is subject to changes within the provisions of the Scheme Information document of the Scheme.
  • 32. Below parameters are aimed at ascertaining the phase of Business Cycle and subsequently an investment approach is devised Parameters For Identifying Business Cycles Capex – Capital Expenditure, DM – Developed Markets. The above list its not exhaustive and above mentioned indicative indicators are used to ascertain business cycle and the same may change based on the evolving environment. The asset allocation and investment strategy will be as per Scheme Information Document. The portfolio of the scheme is subject to changes within the provisions of the Scheme Information document of the Scheme. 32 MACRO PARAMETERS • Current Account Deficit • Interest Rates • Fiscal Deficit • Inflation • Capex Investments • New Projects cleared, etc • Purchasing Manager Index • Business Confidence Index • Sales of various consumer discretionary products, etc. • DM Growth Outlook • DM Policy Outlook • China Growth Outlook • China Policy Stance INVESTMENT INDICATORS BUSINESS & CONSUMER SENTIMENT GLOBAL FACTORS • IIP Growth • Credit Growth
  • 33. Investment Approach – Themes The investment approach is then determined by classifying investment themes basis Global & Domestic Growth and Business Cycle 33 GlobalGrowth Domestic Growth Global Growth: Strong Domestic Growth: Strong Global Growth: Strong Domestic Growth: Weak Global Growth: Weak Domestic Growth: Weak Global Growth: Weak Domestic Growth: Strong BLUE SKYPIGGY BACKING DARK CLOUD RIDER
  • 34. BLUE SKY – STRONG GLOBAL GROWTH + STRONG DOMESTIC GROWTH Investment Portfolio GLOBAL CYCLICALS SECTORS TO LOOK OUT FOR • Metals • Mining • Oil, etc. GLOBAL CYCLICALS (Sectors to look out for) DOMESTIC CYCLICALS SECTORS TO LOOK OUT FOR • Consumer Durables • Capital Goods • Banking • Auto • Infrastructure DOMESTIC CYCLICALS (Sectors to look out for) 34 The stocks/sectors mentioned in this slide do not constitute any recommendation and ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund may or may not have any future position in these stocks/sectors. The asset allocation and investment strategy will be as per Scheme Information Document. The portfolio of the scheme is subject to changes within the provisions of the Scheme Information document of the Scheme.
  • 35. DARK CLOUD – WEAK GLOBAL GROWTH + WEAK DOMESTIC GROWTH RIDER – WEAK GLOBAL GROWTH + STRONG DOMESTIC GROWTH Investment Portfolio DOMESTIC DEFENSIVES (Sectors to look out for) DOMESTIC DEFENSIVES SECTORS TO LOOK OUT FOR DOMESTIC CYCLICALS SECTORS TO LOOK OUT FOR • Consumer Durables • Capital Goods • Banking • Auto • Infrastructure • Telecom • Utilities • Power • FMCG, etc. DOMESTIC CYCLICALS (Sectors to look out for) 35 The stocks/sectors mentioned in this slide do not constitute any recommendation and ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund may or may not have any future position in these stocks/sectors. The asset allocation and investment strategy will be as per Scheme Information Document. The portfolio of the scheme is subject to changes within the provisions of the Scheme Information document of the Scheme.
  • 36. Investment Portfolio The stocks/sectors mentioned in this slide do not constitute any recommendation and ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund may or may not have any future position in these stocks/sectors. The asset allocation and investment strategy will be as per Scheme Information Document. The portfolio of the scheme is subject to changes within the provisions of the Scheme Information document of the Scheme. 36 SECTORS TO LOOK OUT FOR GLOBAL CYCLICALS (Sectors to look out for) • Metals • Mining • Oil, etc. EXPORT ORIENTED SECTORS TO LOOK OUT FOR EXPORT ORIENTED (Sectors to look out for) • IT • Pharmaceuticals • Auto Ancillaries, etc. SECTORS TO LOOK OUT FOR DEFENSIVES (Sectors to look out for) • Telecom • FMCG • Utilities, etc. PIGGY BACKING – STRONG GLOBAL GROWTH + WEAK DOMESTIC GROWTH DOMESTIC DEFENSIVESGLOBAL CYCLICALS
  • 37. Alpha Generation Strategy The stocks/sectors mentioned in this slide do not constitute any recommendation and ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund may or may not have any future position in these stocks/sectors. The asset allocation and investment strategy will be as per Scheme Information Document. The portfolio of the scheme is subject to changes within the provisions of the Scheme Information document of the Scheme. Dec/03 May/06 Oct/08 Mar/11 Aug/13 Jan/16 Jun/18 (2003-2004) Global Outlook: Growth Domestic Outlook: Recovery Sectors that performed: Banks & Capital Goods (2008-2009) Global Outlook: Weak Growth Domestic Outlook: Strong Recovery Sectors that performed: Banks & Auto (2011-2012) Global Outlook: Weak Growth Domestic Outlook: Slowdown Sectors that performed: Tech, Pharma, FMCG (2013-2014) Global Outlook: Neutral Domestic Outlook: Recovery Sectors that performed: Banks & Auto (2018-2020) Global Outlook: Strong Growth Domestic Outlook: Recession Sectors that performed: Tech, Pharma, FMCG BLUE SKY RIDER DARK CLOUD RIDER PIGGY BACKING Sep/20 37
  • 39. Repo Rates in India are at significantly low levels. Low capacity utilization numbers indicate that India has excess capacity if demand picks up pace Abundant Liquidity & Excess Capacity 39 8.0 4.0 3.5 4.5 5.5 6.5 7.5 8.5 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 India Repo Rate (%) 79.0 63.7 60.0 65.0 70.0 75.0 80.0 2011 2012 2012 2013 2013 2014 2014 2015 2015 2016 2016 2017 2017 2018 2018 2019 2019 2020 Capacity Utilization (%, 4QMA) Source: Edelweiss Research, RBI. Data as of June 30, 2020.
  • 40. Percentage of Cases Testing Positive Have Dropped Recovery Rate Has Improved Coupled with Declining Death Rate Subsiding COVID Cases 40 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 6-Mar 13-Apr 21-May 28-Jun 5-Aug 12-Sep 20-Oct 27-Nov %testedpositive CasesinMillions Cumulatived Tested % tested positive (RS) -0.5% 0.5% 1.5% 2.5% 3.5% 4% 24% 44% 64% 84% 6-Mar 13-Apr 21-May 28-Jun 5-Aug 12-Sep 20-Oct 27-Nov DeathRate RecoveryRate Recovery rate (recovered to gross cases) Death rate (Deaths to gross cases) - RS Source: Morgan Stanley Research. Data as of Nov 27, 2020. RS- Right Side denotes what Y axis stands for in the graph
  • 41. Improving GDP Growth Rate Correction in Real Estate Prices Economic Growth & Real Estate 41 7.0% 6.6% 5.8% 5.0% 4.5% 4.7% 3.1% -23.9% -7.5% -30.0% -25.0% -20.0% -15.0% -10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% Q2FY19 Q3FY19 Q4FY19 Q1FY20 Q2FY20 Q3FY20 Q4FY20 Q1FY21 Q2FY21 India GDP Data 2,618 2,292 1000 1500 2000 2500 Dec/17 May/1 8 Oct/18 Mar/19 Aug/19 Jan/20 Jun/20 Nov/20 S&P BSE Realty Index Source: MFIE, NSO. Past performance may or may not sustain in future. MFI Explorer is a tool provided by ICRA Online Ltd. For their standard disclaimer please visit http://www.icraonline.com/legal/standard- disclaimer.html.
  • 42. Current Macro Economic Scenario • Significant Monetary and Fiscal Stimulus has been delivered by Global economies in CY2020 in the wake of COVID-19 crisis • This was primarily to deal with growth slowdown resulting from COVID-19 led lockdowns • Monetary Policy support from Global Central Banks is expected to continue • With significant global liquidity, India among other emerging markets is expected to do well • Indian Economy seems to be getting back on track with improvement in growth, better than anticipated Q2FY21 results, earnings upgrades and subsiding COVID cases • Since Domestic growth is expected to improve further given good liquidity and global growth is expected to be neutral due to increase in second wave of COVID infections in select developed economies and subdued earnings, we believe we are in the „Rider‟ Phase • Hence, we believe, investment in Domestic Cyclicals like Corporate Banks, Capital Goods, Metals & Infrastructure and Real Estate is expected to do well 42 The stocks/sectors mentioned in this slide do not constitute any recommendation and ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund may or may not have any future position in these stocks/sectors
  • 43. Investment Portfolio – Current Business Cycle Rider – Neutral Global Growth + Recovery in Domestic Growth DOMESTIC CYCLICALS SECTORS TO LOOK OUT FOR 43 Metals are considered as Global Cyclicals. he stocks/sectors mentioned in this slide do not constitute any recommendation and ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund may or may not have any future position in these stocks/sectors. The asset allocation and investment strategy will be as per Scheme Information Document. The portfolio of the scheme is subject to changes within the provisions of the Scheme Information document of the Scheme. METALS BANKING CAPITAL GOODS INFRASTRUCTURE
  • 44. Our Experience In Macro Calls YEAR CALL RATIONALE OUTCOME 2012-13 Invest in Global Funds Inflation and Current Account Deficit at alarming levels Launched ICICI Prudential US Bluechip Equity Fund and gave a strong buy call on Exports and Services sector. S&P 500 delivered 20% CAGR from Dec-12 to Dec-14 2013-14 Invest in Infrastructure, Banking, Small & Midcap Funds Strong Govt. Mandate, expectations of NPA resolution, expectation of fall in interest rates Launched ICICI Prudential Value Fund - Series. S&P BSE Midcap TRI & S&P BSE Smallcap TRI delivered 31% & 36% CAGR respectively from Dec-13 to Dec-15 2017 Invest in Technology Fund Expensive currency, global growth expected to be better than domestic growth S&P BSE IT TRI delivered 36% absolute returns from Nov-17 to Nov-18 2018 Invest in Gold NBFC loan book expansion in weak income environment, low earnings growth & market volatility Gold delivered 10% absolute returns from Jan-18 to Jan-19 2020 Aggressively invest in G-Sec Slowdown in growth and inflation. RBI interventions increase in the wake of COVID-19 Crisil Dynamic Gilt Index delivered 3% absolute returns from May 1, 2020 to July 17, 2020 44 ETF – Exchange Traded Funds. Source – MFIE. The stocks/sectors mentioned in this slide do not constitute any recommendation and ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund may or may not have any future position in these stocks/sectors. Past performance may or may not sustain in future. MFI Explorer is a tool provided by ICRA Online Ltd. For their standard disclaimer please visit http://www.icraonline.com/legal/standard-disclaimer.html.
  • 45. Key Takeaways About The Scheme 45 Pure Top Down Approach Macro based fund Not a Value/Contra/Special Situation etc. Opportunistic and Nimble in terms of sector allocation No cap on market cap/sector/themes Hassle free approach – No stress of changing themes basis Business Cycle Long Term Approach The stocks/sectors mentioned in this slide do not constitute any recommendation and ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund may or may not have any future position in these stocks/sectors. The asset allocation and investment strategy will be as per Scheme Information Document. The portfolio of the scheme is subject to changes within the provisions of the Scheme Information document of the Scheme.
  • 46. Portfolio Features 46 Type of Scheme An open ended equity scheme following business cycles based investing theme Plans ICICI Prudential Business Cycle Fund & ICICI Prudential Business Cycle Fund – Direct Options Growth & Dividend Minimum Application Amount Rs. 5,000 (plus in multiples of Re.1) Minimum Additional Application Amount Rs. 1,000 (plus in multiples of Re.1) Minimum Redemption Amount Any amount Entry Load Not applicable Exit Load Upto 12 Months 1% of applicable NAV More than 12 Months Nil Fund Manager Anish Tawakley, Ihab Dalwai & Manish Banthia (involved in identifying business cycles) Benchmark Index Nifty 500 TRI SIP / SWP / STP Available In addition to the fund managers managing this fund, overseas investment will be managed by Ms. Priyanka Khandelwal
  • 47. Riskometers 47 ICICI Prudential US Bluechip Equity Fund (an open ended equity scheme investing predominantlyin securities of large cap companies listed in the United States of America) is suitable for investors who are seeking*:  Long term wealth creation  An open ended equity scheme primarily investing in equity and equity related securities of companies listed on recognized stock exchanges in the United States of America *Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them
  • 48. Riskometer & Disclaimer ICICI Prudential Business Cycle Fund (An open ended equity scheme following business cycles based investing theme) is suitable for investors who are seeking*: Long Term wealth creation An equity scheme that invests in Indian markets with focus on riding business cycles through dynamic allocation between various sectors and stocks at different stages of business cycles *Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them. MUTUAL FUND INVESTMENTS ARE SUBJECT TO MARKET RISKS, READ ALL SCHEME RELATED DOCUMENTS CAREFULLY. All figures and other data given in this document are dated. The same may or may not be relevant at a future date. The AMC takes no responsibility of updating any data/information in this material from time to time. The information shall not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent of ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company Limited. Prospective investors are advised to consult their own legal, tax and financial advisors to determine possible tax, legal and other finan- cial implication or consequence of subscribing to the units of ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund. Data source: Bloomberg, except as mentioned specifically. Disclaimer: In the preparation of the material contained in this document, ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company Ltd. (the AMC) has used information that is publicly available, including informa- tion developed in- house. Some of the material used in the document may have been obtained from members/persons other than the AMC and/or its affiliates and which may have been made available to the AMC and/or to its affiliates. Information gathered and material used in this document is believed to be from reliable sources. The AMC however does not warrant the accuracy, reasonableness and / or completeness of any information. We have included statements / opinions / recommendations in this document, which contain words, or phrases such as “will”, “expect”, “should”, “believe” and similar expressions or variations of such expressions, that are “forward looking statements”. Actual results may differ materially from those suggested by the forward looking statements due to risk or uncertainties associated with our expectations with respect to, but not limited to, exposure to market risks, general economic and political conditions in India and other countries globally, which have an impact on our services and / or investments, the monetary and interest policies of India, inflation, deflation, unanticipated turbulence in interest rates, foreign exchange rates, equity prices or other rates or prices etc. ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company Limited (including its affiliates), the Mutual Fund, The Trust and any of its officers, directors, personnel and employees, shall not liable for any loss, damage of any nature, including but not limited to direct, indirect, punitive, special, exemplary, consequential, as also any loss of profit in any way arising from the use of this material in any manner. Further, the information contained herein should not be construed as forecast or promise. The recipient alone shall be fully responsible/are liable for any decision taken on this material. 48
  • 49. The Greatest Lessons Regarding Cycles Are Learned Through Experience…as In The Adage “Experience Is What You Got When You Didn‟t Get What You Wanted” Howard Marks (Mastering the Market Cycle) THANK YOU 49