Paul Hudson evaluates the significance of the pace of change we’ve witnessed in the last 10 years and predicts the likely pace of change over the next 10 years. What can we expect in the future and what does this means for your business?
1. The Dawning of the New Age Intersperience Research Ltd. Open Ideas May 2011
2. - 26th May 2011 Intersperience Research Ltd. 1.6 billion people have access to the internet at home Worldwide (29%) 445% growth since 2000 The Office of National Statistics
3. - 26th May 2011 Intersperience Research Ltd. UK the third top internet user in Europe 38 million accessed the internet in 2010 30 million adults accessed the internet every day in 2010 That is a double since 2006 The Office of National Statistics
14. - 26th May 2011 Intersperience Research Ltd. Incremental Change Disruptive Change Impact Impact Time Time Evolves from the confluence of the seemingly diverse occurrences Result of the entirely new events Systematic, consistent, predictable Improvements, refinements, minor modifications Kostoffet al 2004, Mitchel et al 1998
15. - 26th May 2011 Intersperience Research Ltd. SMS was an accidental success, taking everyone by surprise The ‘back to basics’ nature of SMS one of the main keys to its success Cost, convenience, immediacy, privacy, ubiquity Begun a change from a voice-based use of mobile phone into multifunctional device The future prospect difficult to predict What are seen as limitations could as easily be viewed as benefits Haig et al
16. - 26th May 2011 Intersperience Research Ltd. 2006 – Twitter released for public use March 14th to 18th 2008 – Twitter use increases from 20, 000 to 60, 000 tweets a day at “South by Southwest Festival” 2008 – 100 million tweets posted per quarter 2009 – 2 billion tweets per quarter 2010 – 50 million tweets per day First unassisted off-Earth tweet posted from the International Space Station
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18. Productivity is regained once the user has learnt how to use the technology effectively – has adapted- 26th May 2011 Intersperience Research Ltd.
19. - 26th May 2011 Intersperience Research Ltd. Technology developers create the most advanced experience for the user 3D technology for better gaming experience Internet access on TV Mobile technology allowing more instant, more widely available options Consumers’ approach to the better and the more advanced may have a slower pace: 19% would be comfortable managing their online accounts on their mobile phone 37% would be concerned about their privacy and security during their purchase via a mobile phone Intersperience Digital Selves Project 2011
20. - 26th May 2011 Intersperience Research Ltd. Look at today to predict tomorrow “Shine a light on the road in front” Behaviour change within a shifting landscape Futurology is NOT about 10 year predictions… …but, identify trends that will shape behavior 3 – 5 years out Constant revision React to disruptive shocks (e.g. iPad) Plan for change!
21. - 26th May 2011 Intersperience Research Ltd. Early Internet use showed adoption would take longer Novice User Experienced User IntersperienceBuilding Internet Relationships Project 2000
22. - 26th May 2011 Intersperience Research Ltd. Early view of changing internet: From fixed to mobile Intersperience Home Access Project 2006
23. - 26th May 2011 Intersperience Research Ltd. Internet changing: From functional to ubiquitous Mobile Adult emphasis on task Abigail, 11 used images of mobile phones and on the internet as entertainment and leisure Laptop PC PC Julie, 45 selects images to represent tasks she can do (get deliveries, learn how to grow flowers and make cakes, play music) Laptop Intersperience Digital Selves Project 2011
24. The Dawning of the New Age Intersperience Research Ltd. Open Ideas May 2011
