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The Dawning Of The New Age


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Paul Hudson evaluates the significance of the pace of change we’ve witnessed in the last 10 years and predicts the likely pace of change over the next 10 years. What can we expect in the future and what does this means for your business?

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The Dawning Of The New Age

  1. 1. The Dawning of the New Age<br />Intersperience Research Ltd.<br />Open Ideas<br />May 2011<br />
  2. 2. - 26th May 2011<br />Intersperience Research Ltd.<br />1.6 billion people have access to the internet at home Worldwide (29%)<br />445% growth since 2000<br />The Office of National Statistics<br />
  3. 3. - 26th May 2011<br />Intersperience Research Ltd.<br />UK the third top internet user in Europe<br />38 million accessed the internet in 2010<br />30 million adults accessed the internet every day in 2010<br />That is a double since 2006<br />The Office of National Statistics<br />
  4. 4. - 26th May 2011<br />Intersperience Research Ltd.<br />Just 2 years ago, sales over websites reached £115bn<br />90% purchase goods online<br /><ul><li>Out of 83% who look for information online
  5. 5. 23% look for information online every day
  6. 6. 13% surf the web to look for information all the time
  7. 7. 60% who read news online, do so on a daily basis
  8. 8. 46% finds time spent without the internet unproductive</li></ul>The Office of National Statistics<br />
  9. 9. - 26th May 2011<br />Intersperience Research Ltd.<br /><ul><li>Advancing information accessibility
  10. 10. Online based (e.g. Wikipedia, Twitter)
  11. 11. Instant – mobile access through smartphones, tablet computers
  12. 12. Increasing speed of information sharing</li></ul>“ This is the tricky thing about technology, it keeps changing”<br /><ul><li>Digital Selves</li></li></ul><li>- 26th May 2011<br />Intersperience Research Ltd.<br />More choice<br />To 71% the internet has vastly increased the amount of choice <br />Higher control<br />51% customers believe the internet has increased the amount of control they have as a consumer<br />Greater influence<br />35% are influenced by the comments posted by other online users <br />2003, 2010 The Office of National Statistics; 2011 Digital Selves<br />
  13. 13. - 26th May 2011<br />Intersperience Research Ltd.<br />Today’s use of technology <br />Only 3% feel anxious using computers<br />79% use mobile phone (44% smartphones)<br />63% access internet on their phones<br />Today 74% access internet wirelessly<br />Over three-quarters use laptops (77% everyday)<br />Over a half use entertainment devices such as iPods or game consoles<br />“Gradually, almost without consciously noticing it, technology has transformed our lives” <br /><ul><li>Digital Selves</li></ul>Intersperience Digital Selves Project 2011<br />
  14. 14. - 26th May 2011<br />Intersperience Research Ltd.<br />Incremental Change<br />Disruptive Change<br />Impact<br />Impact<br />Time<br />Time<br />Evolves from the confluence of the seemingly diverse occurrences<br />Result of the entirely new events<br />Systematic, consistent, predictable<br />Improvements, refinements, minor modifications<br />Kostoffet al 2004, Mitchel et al 1998<br />
  15. 15. - 26th May 2011<br />Intersperience Research Ltd.<br />SMS was an accidental success, taking everyone by surprise<br />The ‘back to basics’ nature of SMS one of the main keys to its success<br />Cost, convenience, immediacy, privacy, ubiquity <br />Begun a change from a voice-based use of mobile phone into multifunctional device<br />The future prospect difficult to predict<br />What are seen as limitations could as easily be viewed as benefits<br />Haig et al<br />
  16. 16. - 26th May 2011<br />Intersperience Research Ltd.<br />2006 – Twitter released for public use<br />March 14th to 18th 2008 – Twitter use increases from 20, 000 to 60, 000 tweets a day at “South by Southwest Festival”<br />2008 – 100 million tweets posted per quarter<br />2009 – 2 billion tweets per quarter<br />2010 – 50 million tweets per day<br />First unassisted off-Earth tweet posted from the International Space Station<br />
  17. 17. The Evolutionary Cycle<br />Technological pace vs. behavioural pace<br />Behaviour<br />Technology<br />TIME <br /><ul><li>Introducing new technology initially creates a new, more complex environment to do the same tasks (Mackay et al, Beaudryet al)
  18. 18. Productivity is regained once the user has learnt how to use the technology effectively – has adapted</li></ul>- 26th May 2011<br />Intersperience Research Ltd.<br />
  19. 19. - 26th May 2011<br />Intersperience Research Ltd.<br />Technology developers create the most advanced experience for the user<br />3D technology for better gaming experience<br />Internet access on TV<br />Mobile technology allowing more instant, more widely available options<br />Consumers’ approach to the better and the more advanced may have a slower pace:<br />19% would be comfortable managing their online accounts on their mobile phone<br />37% would be concerned about their privacy and security during their purchase via a mobile phone<br />Intersperience Digital Selves Project 2011<br />
  20. 20. - 26th May 2011<br />Intersperience Research Ltd.<br />Look at today to predict tomorrow<br />“Shine a light on the road in front” <br />Behaviour change within a shifting landscape<br />Futurology is NOT about 10 year predictions…<br />…but, identify trends that will shape behavior 3 – 5 years out<br />Constant revision<br />React to disruptive shocks (e.g. iPad)<br />Plan for change!<br />
  21. 21. - 26th May 2011<br />Intersperience Research Ltd.<br />Early Internet use showed adoption would take longer<br />Novice User<br />Experienced User<br />IntersperienceBuilding Internet Relationships Project 2000<br />
  22. 22. - 26th May 2011<br />Intersperience Research Ltd.<br />Early view of changing internet: From fixed to mobile<br />Intersperience Home Access Project 2006<br />
  23. 23. - 26th May 2011<br />Intersperience Research Ltd.<br />Internet changing: From functional to ubiquitous<br />Mobile<br />Adult emphasis on task<br />Abigail, 11 used images of mobile phones and on the internet as entertainment and leisure<br />Laptop<br />PC<br />PC<br />Julie, 45 selects images to represent tasks she can do (get deliveries, learn how to grow flowers and make cakes, play music)<br />Laptop<br />Intersperience Digital Selves Project 2011<br />
  24. 24. The Dawning of the New Age<br />Intersperience Research Ltd.<br />Open Ideas<br />May 2011<br />