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J-SHISで扱っている、地震の発生確率と地震動の超過確率について説明しています。
【J-SHIS】地震の発生確率と地震動の超過確率
【J-SHIS】地震の発生確率と地震動の超過確率
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https://www.hubspot.com/state-of-marketing · Scaling relationships and proving ROI · Social media is the place for search, sales, and service · Authentic influencer partnerships fuel brand growth · The strongest connections happen via call, click, chat, and camera. · Time saved with AI leads to more creative work · Seeking: A single source of truth · TLDR; Get on social, try AI, and align your systems. · More human marketing, powered by robots
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ChatGPT is a revolutionary addition to the world since its introduction in 2022. A big shift in the sector of information gathering and processing happened because of this chatbot. What is the story of ChatGPT? How is the bot responding to prompts and generating contents? Swipe through these slides prepared by Expeed Software, a web development company regarding the development and technical intricacies of ChatGPT!
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The realm of product design is a constantly changing environment where technology and style intersect. Every year introduces fresh challenges and exciting trends that mold the future of this captivating art form. In this piece, we delve into the significant trends set to influence the look and functionality of product design in the year 2024.
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Mental health has been in the news quite a bit lately. Dozens of U.S. states are currently suing Meta for contributing to the youth mental health crisis by inserting addictive features into their products, while the U.S. Surgeon General is touring the nation to bring awareness to the growing epidemic of loneliness and isolation. The country has endured periods of low national morale, such as in the 1970s when high inflation and the energy crisis worsened public sentiment following the Vietnam War. The current mood, however, feels different. Gallup recently reported that national mental health is at an all-time low, with few bright spots to lift spirits. To better understand how Americans are feeling and their attitudes towards mental health in general, ThinkNow conducted a nationally representative quantitative survey of 1,500 respondents and found some interesting differences among ethnic, age and gender groups. Technology For example, 52% agree that technology and social media have a negative impact on mental health, but when broken out by race, 61% of Whites felt technology had a negative effect, and only 48% of Hispanics thought it did. While technology has helped us keep in touch with friends and family in faraway places, it appears to have degraded our ability to connect in person. Staying connected online is a double-edged sword since the same news feed that brings us pictures of the grandkids and fluffy kittens also feeds us news about the wars in Israel and Ukraine, the dysfunction in Washington, the latest mass shooting and the climate crisis. Hispanics may have a built-in defense against the isolation technology breeds, owing to their large, multigenerational households, strong social support systems, and tendency to use social media to stay connected with relatives abroad. Age and Gender When asked how individuals rate their mental health, men rate it higher than women by 11 percentage points, and Baby Boomers rank it highest at 83%, saying it’s good or excellent vs. 57% of Gen Z saying the same. Gen Z spends the most amount of time on social media, so the notion that social media negatively affects mental health appears to be correlated. Unfortunately, Gen Z is also the generation that’s least comfortable discussing mental health concerns with healthcare professionals. Only 40% of them state they’re comfortable discussing their issues with a professional compared to 60% of Millennials and 65% of Boomers. Race Affects Attitudes As seen in previous research conducted by ThinkNow, Asian Americans lag other groups when it comes to awareness of mental health issues. Twenty-four percent of Asian Americans believe that having a mental health issue is a sign of weakness compared to the 16% average for all groups. Asians are also considerably less likely to be aware of mental health services in their communities (42% vs. 55%) and most likely to seek out information on social media (51% vs. 35%).
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J-SHISで扱っている、地震の発生確率と地震動の超過確率について説明しています。
【J-SHIS】地震の発生確率と地震動の超過確率
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2024 State of Marketing Report – by Hubspot
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Mental health has been in the news quite a bit lately. Dozens of U.S. states are currently suing Meta for contributing to the youth mental health crisis by inserting addictive features into their products, while the U.S. Surgeon General is touring the nation to bring awareness to the growing epidemic of loneliness and isolation. The country has endured periods of low national morale, such as in the 1970s when high inflation and the energy crisis worsened public sentiment following the Vietnam War. The current mood, however, feels different. Gallup recently reported that national mental health is at an all-time low, with few bright spots to lift spirits. To better understand how Americans are feeling and their attitudes towards mental health in general, ThinkNow conducted a nationally representative quantitative survey of 1,500 respondents and found some interesting differences among ethnic, age and gender groups. Technology For example, 52% agree that technology and social media have a negative impact on mental health, but when broken out by race, 61% of Whites felt technology had a negative effect, and only 48% of Hispanics thought it did. While technology has helped us keep in touch with friends and family in faraway places, it appears to have degraded our ability to connect in person. Staying connected online is a double-edged sword since the same news feed that brings us pictures of the grandkids and fluffy kittens also feeds us news about the wars in Israel and Ukraine, the dysfunction in Washington, the latest mass shooting and the climate crisis. Hispanics may have a built-in defense against the isolation technology breeds, owing to their large, multigenerational households, strong social support systems, and tendency to use social media to stay connected with relatives abroad. Age and Gender When asked how individuals rate their mental health, men rate it higher than women by 11 percentage points, and Baby Boomers rank it highest at 83%, saying it’s good or excellent vs. 57% of Gen Z saying the same. Gen Z spends the most amount of time on social media, so the notion that social media negatively affects mental health appears to be correlated. Unfortunately, Gen Z is also the generation that’s least comfortable discussing mental health concerns with healthcare professionals. Only 40% of them state they’re comfortable discussing their issues with a professional compared to 60% of Millennials and 65% of Boomers. Race Affects Attitudes As seen in previous research conducted by ThinkNow, Asian Americans lag other groups when it comes to awareness of mental health issues. Twenty-four percent of Asian Americans believe that having a mental health issue is a sign of weakness compared to the 16% average for all groups. Asians are also considerably less likely to be aware of mental health services in their communities (42% vs. 55%) and most likely to seek out information on social media (51% vs. 35%).
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From their humble beginnings in 1984, TED has grown into the world’s most powerful amplifier for speakers and thought-leaders to share their ideas. They have over 2,400 filmed talks (not including the 30,000+ TEDx videos) freely available online, and have hosted over 17,500 events around the world. With over one billion views in a year, it’s no wonder that so many speakers are looking to TED for ideas on how to share their message more effectively. The article “5 Public-Speaking Tips TED Gives Its Speakers”, by Carmine Gallo for Forbes, gives speakers five practical ways to connect with their audience, and effectively share their ideas on stage. Whether you are gearing up to get on a TED stage yourself, or just want to master the skills that so many of their speakers possess, these tips and quotes from Chris Anderson, the TED Talks Curator, will encourage you to make the most impactful impression on your audience. See the full article and more summaries like this on SpeakerHub here: https://speakerhub.com/blog/5-presentation-tips-ted-gives-its-speakers See the original article on Forbes here: http://www.forbes.com/forbes/welcome/?toURL=http://www.forbes.com/sites/carminegallo/2016/05/06/5-public-speaking-tips-ted-gives-its-speakers/&refURL=&referrer=#5c07a8221d9b
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From their humble beginnings in 1984, TED has grown into the world’s most powerful amplifier for speakers and thought-leaders to share their ideas. They have over 2,400 filmed talks (not including the 30,000+ TEDx videos) freely available online, and have hosted over 17,500 events around the world. With over one billion views in a year, it’s no wonder that so many speakers are looking to TED for ideas on how to share their message more effectively. The article “5 Public-Speaking Tips TED Gives Its Speakers”, by Carmine Gallo for Forbes, gives speakers five practical ways to connect with their audience, and effectively share their ideas on stage. Whether you are gearing up to get on a TED stage yourself, or just want to master the skills that so many of their speakers possess, these tips and quotes from Chris Anderson, the TED Talks Curator, will encourage you to make the most impactful impression on your audience. See the full article and more summaries like this on SpeakerHub here: https://speakerhub.com/blog/5-presentation-tips-ted-gives-its-speakers See the original article on Forbes here: http://www.forbes.com/forbes/welcome/?toURL=http://www.forbes.com/sites/carminegallo/2016/05/06/5-public-speaking-tips-ted-gives-its-speakers/&refURL=&referrer=#5c07a8221d9b
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あなたの家の下が活断層だったら
1.
知ることから始めよう ―あなたの家の下が だったら?― 1
2.
もくじ 1.地球のなりたちと地震のおきるしくみ 2.活断層ってなんだろう? 3.活断層ってどこが怖いの? 4.活断層への対策 5.ちいさなまとめ 6.活断層の事例紹介 2
3.
1.地球のなりたちと 地震のおきるしくみ 3
4.
地球はどれくらい前にできたのでしょうか? 1.140~150億年前 2.40~50億年前 3.20~30億年前 4.5~6億年前 4
5.
質問1 地球はどれくらい前にできたのでしょうか? 1. 2. 3. 4. 140~150億年前 40~50億年前 20~30億年前 5~6億年前 50% 25% 25% 0% 1 2 3 4 5
6.
答 2.40~50億年前 地球の年代表 約46億年前 6
7.
• 地球は46億年前に隕石や塵が集まってでき ました。 地球の年代表 人類の誕生 多細胞生物の誕生 大陸の誕生 海・生物の誕生 地球誕生 7
8.
• 地球はこれまでに、何度も大規模な厄災に見 舞われています。 全球凍結 隕石衝突 隕石衝突 全球凍結 ジャイアント インパクト 隕石衝突 イラストはNASA、Wikipedia 8
9.
きっとこれからも、 大きな災害に見舞われることでしょう。 9
10.
地球のなかみは次のどれに一番似ているでしょうか? 1.ピンポン玉 2.大福 3.ゆで卵 空洞 10
11.
質問2 地球のなかみは次のどれに一番にているでしょうか? 1. ピンポン玉 2. 大福 3.
ゆで卵 50% 25% 25% 空洞 ピンポン玉 ゆで卵 大福 1 2 3 11
12.
答 3.ゆで卵 地球のなかみは、ゆで卵によく似ています。 黄身→核 白身→マントル 殻 →地殻(プレート) マントル
地殻 核 12
13.
・地殻は、ひびの入った卵の殻のように、いくつかのプ レートに分かれています。 ・マントルはゆっくりと対流しています。 ・プレートもマントルの対流にのって、動いています。 マントル 核 13
14.
・日本の近海では、海のプレートが日本の下に潜り込 んでいます。 ・この時、陸地のプレートと海のプレートに発生する押 し合う力が地震を起こすもとになっています。 プレートの圧縮で 発生する地震 プレートの反発で 発生する地震 陸のプレート マントル マントル 気象庁資料に加筆 14
15.
この沈み込みは、今も続いています。 ですから、 地震はこれからもおきます。 15
16.
2.活断層ってなんだろう? 16
17.
断層ってなんだろう? 「地学事典」によると・・・ 〔岩石の破壊によって生ずる不連続面のうち、 面に平行な変位のあるもの〕 となっています。 17
18.
要するに・・ 地層 断層 こんなふうに地層がずれたところが断層 18
19.
地層や岩石に力を加え続けたらどうなるでしょうか? 1.スポンジのように、だんだん小さくなる 2.こわれる 19
20.
質問3 地層や岩石に力を加え続けたらどうなるでしょうか? 1. スポンジのように、 だんだん小さくなる 2. こわれる 100% 0% 1 2 20
21.
答 2.こわれる 北海道立教育研究所付属理科教育センター 21
22.
岩石や地層に力を加え続けると いずれは、こわれます。 この「こわれる」という現象が、 地震です。 22
23.
先ほどの映像でこわれた岩石 断層 断層 23
24.
では、 活 断層って何でしょう? 24
25.
ふたたび「地学事典」によると・・・ 〔きわめて近き時代まで 地殻変動を繰り返した断層であり 今後もなお活動すべき可能性の大なる断層〕 1927年に東大の多田先生が定めた定義が 今も使われています。 25
26.
どうやら・・・ 断層 活断層 断層の中でも、最近まで繰り返し動いていて、 これからも動く可能性があるものを活断層と呼びます。 26
27.
活断層の定義に当てはまる、 もっとも古い断層はどれでしょう? 1.200年前 2.5千年前 3.7万年前 4.30万年前 5.400万年前 27
28.
質問4 活断層の定義に当てはまる、もっとも古い断層はどれでしょう? 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 200年前 5千年前 7千年前 30万年前 400万年前 50% 25% 25% 0% 1 2 3 0% 4 5 28
29.
答 4.30万年前(?) 「最近」とはいつの時代を指すのか? 基本姿勢 約260万年前 現実的に調査ができる年代の限界 東日本大震災以降の原発の考え 約40万年前 東日本大震災以前の実務上の考え 約12~13万年前 29
30.
次のうち、活断層を調べる方法として あまり使われていないものはどれでしょうか? 1.地下水の水質 2.航空写真 3.古文書 4.人工地震 30
31.
質問5 次のうち、活断層を調べる方法として、 あまり使われていないものはどれでしょうか? 1. 2. 3. 4. 地下水の水質 航空写真 古文書 人工地震 50% 25% 25% 0% 1 2 3 4 31
32.
答 1.地下水の水質 航空写真 特殊な地形を探す際に利用します 古文書 過去の地震の記録として利用します 人工地震 地下の構造を調べるために利用します 活断層調査では、あまり地下水の水質を調べることはありませ ん。 32
33.
人工地震とは・・・ 札幌市の資料 発破や起震車を使って人工的に発生させる「揺れ」を「人工地 震」と言います。地下深くの構造を調べるときに用います。 33
34.
最終的な確認は、 地面に溝を掘って直接観察します。 34
35.
日本には、活断層がいくつありますか? 1.約50か所 2.約100か所 3.約150か所 4.よくわかっていない 35
36.
質問6 日本には、活断層がいくつありますか? 1. 2. 3. 4. 約50か所 約100か所 約150か所 よくわかっていない 50% 25% 25% 0% 1 2 3 4 36
37.
答 4.よくわかっていない 文部科学省は、110か 所の活断層について、 地震の発生確率などを 発表しています。 しかし、これ以外に活 断層がいくつあるかに ついては、よくわかって いません。 文科省が発表している活断層 文部科学省資料 37
38.
活断層調査の難しさ 38
39.
断層の活動時期を決める基本的な方法 数十~数百年前の地層 12万年前の地層 断層が12万年前の地層を切っている 少 な く
と も 1 2 万 年 前に は 活 動した 断層 800万年前の地層 39
40.
12万年前の地層がなかったらどうなるか? 数十~数百年前の地層 800万年前の地層の上には 数百年前の地層しか残っていない。 過去数百年は活動していない 数百年から800万年の間の活動は不明 断層 これは活断層として扱うべきなのか?? 800万年前の地層 40
41.
今のところの定義 原子力規制委員会の 評価方法 40万年前以降に活動したもの 活断層であることを否定できないもの 一般的な活断層の定義 12~13万年前以降に活動したもの 活断層である証拠があるもの 41
42.
つまり・・・ 断層を見つけられない 十分な証拠が得られない というケースがあります 42
43.
ほかにも難しさが・・・ 東京・大阪・札幌に共通する難しさ とは? 43
44.
約4000m 表面に柔らかい土が厚く積もっている場合 断層のずれが少ない場合など 見つけにくい 柔 ら か い 地 層 硬 い 地 層 平らな土地に発達する 都市には共通する問題 44
45.
札幌はどうなっているかというと、 地下深くに、断層らしいものが見つかっています。 45
46.
3.活断層ってどこが怖いの? 46
47.
活断層の怖さって何だろう? 活 断 層 の 怖 さ 引き起こされる地震のユレの怖さ 断層による地面のズレの怖さ 47
48.
地震のユレの怖さの正体は? 地 震 の 想定される地震の規模 の 怖 さ 活断層と守るべきものとの距離 ユ レ 活動する確率(可能性) 活断層の直上では すさまじい揺れが! 48
49.
発生する確率 地震の規模 (マグニチュード) 文部科学省資料 それぞれの活断層について、想定される地震の規模と 30年以内に地震が発生する確率が計算されています。 49
50.
ところで、 マグニチュード(M)と 震度ってどこが違うの? 50
51.
照明に例えると・・・ 光源の明るさ マグニチュード(地震の大きさ) 光のあたる面の明るさ 震度(その場所の揺れの大きさ) 気象庁資料 51
52.
気象庁資料 一般には震源から離れると揺れが小さくなります。 52
53.
ある断層が今後30年以内に活動する確率が、 2~5% と予測されています。 これは、次のどれと同じ程度の確率でしょうか? 1.飛行機事故で死亡する確率 2.交通事故で負傷する確率 3.火災で被災する確率 4.台風で被災する確率 53
54.
質問7 ある断層が今後30年以内に活動する確率が、 2~5% と予測されています。 これは、次のどれと同じ程度の確率でしょうか? 1. 2. 3. 4. 飛行機事故で死亡する確率 交通事故で負傷する確率 火災で被災する確率 台風で被災する確率 50% 25% 25% 0% 1 2 3 4 54
55.
答 3.火災で被災する確率 2~5% 文部科学省資料 55
56.
次の活断層のうち、 地震を起こす可能性が高いのは、 どちらでしょうか? 地震 100年 地震 100年 地震 120年 断層A 地震 60年 地震 60年 地震 60年 地震 40年 断層B 過去 現在 56
57.
質問8 次の活断層のうち、地震を起こす可能性が高いのは、 どちらでしょうか? 75% 25% 1. 断層A 2. 断層B 1 2 57
58.
答 1 断層A 断層Bは60年間隔で活動しており、それより20年短い40年が経 過しています。断層Aは100年間隔で活動しており、それより20 年長い120年も経過しています。ですから断層Aの方が地震を起 こす可能性が高いと考えられます。 地震 100年 地震 100年 地震 120年 地震? 断層A 地震 60年 地震 60年 地震 60年 地震 40年 断層B 過去 現在 58
59.
これまでご紹介したように、 いろいろな 証拠を調べて 活断層の 評価を行うのですが 文部科学省資料 59
60.
どうしても限界があります 60
61.
活断層に関する想定の前提 過去と同じようなことが将来も起きるだろう 61
62.
実際には・・・ • 地震は必ずしも同じ間隔で起きるわけではな い • 活断層が引き起こす地震の規模は、いつも 同じわけではない でも、他にうまい手段がないので、 過去と同じことが将来も起きるとして想定しています。 62
63.
地面のズレによる怖さ 63
64.
活断層特有の危険 地面のズレによる被害 64
65.
こんなふうに地面がズレてしまうので・・・ 文部科学省資料 65
66.
活断層 国土地理院地理地殻活動研究センター 原子力規制委員会資料:2013.3 活断層の真上にあるものには大きな被害が出ます。 66
67.
4.活断層への対策 67
68.
そんなに危ないなら、 何とかならないの? 68
69.
地震の発生を阻止することは、 無理です! 69
70.
地震のユレに対するモノの対策は、 「地震でユレても 壊れにくいモノを作る。」 70
71.
ユレに対するモノの対策(耐震基準) 建物の耐震基準の変遷 1923年 関東大震災 1924年 市街地に耐震基準 1978年 宮城県沖地震 1981年 新耐震基準 1995年
阪神淡路大震災 2000年 ・耐震基準は、地震 災害を教訓に何度 か改正されています。 ・現在の耐震基準の 骨子は、1981年に 定められました。 ・1981年以前の建物 は地震による被害が 大きくなる傾向があ ります。 耐震基準を強化 71
72.
国土地理資料 でも地面がこんなにズレたら、最新の基準でも建物は大きく壊れてしまいます。 72
73.
ズレに対する対策はないのか? 73
74.
山陽新幹線新神戸駅の事例 1970年ごろ 工事中に活断層を発見 ずれに対する対策を採用 活 断 層 5cmの変位を想定 (横断方向の変位) 対策としては不十分(?) 池田俊雄(1971) 74
75.
海外の対策事例 活断層 スライドビーム(横滑り用のレール) テフロンの台 原子力規制委員会資料 アラスカ横断パイプラインの事例 75
76.
ソフト的対策はないのか? 76
77.
次の国のうち、活断層近辺の建築を規制する 法律を設けているのはどれでしょう? 1.日本 2.アメリカ 3.台湾 4.ニュージーランド 77
78.
質問9 次の国のうち、活断層近辺の建築を規制する 法律を設けているのはどれでしょう? 1. 2. 3. 4. 日本 アメリカ 台湾 ニュージーランド 75% 25% 0% 1 0% 2 3 4 78
79.
答 2.アメリカ カリフォルニアでは、法律で活断層近辺の開発が規制されています。 USGS資料 • • • カリフォルニア州活断層法(1972~) 主要な活断層から約15m以内は新築禁止。150m以内は「特別調査地帯」。 「特別調査地帯」内では開発行為に際し安全確認の義務。 安全が確認されなければ開発行為は許可されない(とくに居住施設)。 79
80.
アメリカ以外はどうなっているの?? 80
81.
条例レベルでの規制があります。 81
82.
ニュージーランド 〔活断層上と近傍の 土地開発計画のための 暫定ガイドライン (2004)〕 断層の活動度や構造 物の重要度に応じた対 応を自治体に求める。 これを受け、条例レベ ルで規制。 ニュージーランドの活断層指針 (ニュージーランド環境省) 82
83.
台湾(条例) 産業総合研究所資料 1999集集地震後、車籠浦断層の地表断層線から両側約15mの建築制限 83
84.
条例レベルなら日本でも 指針などで建設が禁止されているのは原子力発電所とダムのみ (2000年3月30日) (防災対策)第9条開発事業を行う事業主は、 地形、地質その他の地盤条件の調査を十分 に行い、地震、火災、浸水その他災害に対す る対策を講じるよう努めなければならない。 (2000年3月31日) (中高層建築物の建築の届出)第18条条例 第14条第1項(条例第18条において準用する 場合を含む。)の規定による建築計画の届出 は、第15条第3項の開発事業計画書又は前 条の小規模開発事業計画書の提出の際に、 中高層建築物建築計画書に次に掲げる書面 及び図書を添えて、正本1部を市長に提出し て行わなければならない。 西宮市 活断層周辺でのマンション、宅地造 成時に市が活断層情報を提供すると ともに、考慮するよう指導。 横須賀市 北武断層の両側25m内で建築しな いよう指導。 福岡市 誉固断層周辺指定地域で、高さ20 mを超える建物の構造耐力を増すよ う指導。 徳島県 中央構造線直上40mで、特定の建 物の建築を規制。 84
85.
5.ちいさなまとめ 85
86.
地 球歴 の史 活 断 層 っ て な ん だ ろ う ? 46億年の歴史の中で、何度も大きな厄災に見舞われた 今も日本の下に太平洋が沈み込んでいるので、地震がおきてしまう ど ん な も の ? 「最近」まで地層が繰り返し動いた場所を活断層という 怖 さ っ て ? ユレには、地震の規模、震源との距離、活動の確率などが関係する 「最近」の定義は、いくつかある 慎重に調べても見落としたり、十分な証拠が得られないことがある 活断層の真上では、地面のズレによる被害も考えられる 過去とは違う規模・間隔で地震がおきるかもしれない 地震は防げない 対 策 は ? 地震のユレに対するモノの対策はある程度実施されている 活断層のズレに対する対策例はほとんどない 建物を建てないようにするといったソフト的対策は一部でとられている 86
87.
6.活断層の事例紹介 黒松内低地断層帯について 87
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事例を紹介する理由 断層名 活 断 層 の 個 性 想定規模 活動周期 前回の活動 A断層 M8.0 1000年周期 1200年前 B断層 M7.2 4000年周期 300~1700年前 C断層 M7.1 30万年周期 400~1100年前 • 想定地震規模・活動周期など活断層には個性があ ります。 • これ以外にも地理的条件なども重要です。 88
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なぜ黒松内を紹介するか? 北海道にある 国による評価が行われている 黒松内低地断層帯 鉄道・高速道路・新幹線(計画)などが 実際にある 評価の内容に専門家の間で議論が少ない 89
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黒松内低地断層帯の概要 評価年:2005年 断層の長さ:約32km以上 断層の種類:逆断層(西隆起) 最新の活動:5900~4900年前 平均活動間隔:3600~5000年程度以上 想定される規模:M7.3程度以上 ずれの量:2~3m程度以上 信頼度:c(a~dの下から2つ目) 90
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黒松内低地断層帯と 過去の直下型地震との比較 91
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黒松内低地断層帯の不確定な因子 黒松内低地断層帯 2011年に確認された断層 • 活動間隔を知る、直接的な 証拠はない。経験式から推 定。 • 1回の活動における変位量 を知る、直接的な証拠はな い。経験式から推定。 •
活動区間を知る、直接的な 証拠はない。全体が動くと 推定。 • 断層は噴火湾に伸びてい る可能性がある。2011年に 一部を確認。 92
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黒松内低地断層帯の活動による揺れ 最大震度7が想定されている 93
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考えていただく状況 この場所に 次のものを 作っても良いのか お考えください。 • 長万部駅周辺の 5km範囲。 • 想定では大半は震 度7程度の地震に 見舞われる。 •
活断層の直上では、 2m程度の段差が できる可能性があ る。 • 30年間に地震が おきる確率は 2~5%以下です。 94
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