2. 2
目次
14.1 Seasonality in Time Series
14.2 Minimum Daily Temperatures Dataset
14.3 Seasonal Adjustment with Differencing
14.4 Seasonal Adjustment with Modeling
14.5 Summary
18. 18
#データ読み込み省略
X = [i%365 for i in range(0, len(series))]
y = series.values
degree = 4
coef = polyfit(X, y, degree) #モデル構築
print('Coefficients: %s' % coef)
curve = list()
for i in range(len(X)):
value = coef[-1]
for d in range(degree):
value += X[i]**(degree-d) * coef[d] #季節モデルの値の計算
curve.append(value)
pyplot.plot(series.values)
pyplot.plot(curve, color='red', linewidth=3)
pyplot.show()
14.4 モデリングによる季節調整
𝑦 = 𝑏1 𝑥4 + 𝑏2 𝑥3 + 𝑏3 𝑥2 + 𝑏4 𝑥 + 𝑏5
20. 20
X = [i%365 for i in range(0, len(series))]
y = series.values
degree = 4
coef = polyfit(X, y, degree) #季節モデル構築
curve = list()
for i in range(len(X)):
value = coef[-1]
for d in range(degree):
value += X[i]**(degree-d) * coef[d] #季節モデルの値の計算
curve.append(value)
values = series.values #元データの取り出し
diff = list()
for i in range(len(values)):
value = values[i] - curve[i] #元データ-季節モデル
diff.append(value)
pyplot.plot(diff)
pyplot.show()
14.4 モデリングによる季節調整