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Lecture 19
Macroeconomics
Opening
Prayer
Questions
Start
Recording
1980 2018
Time Price Database
1980 2018
1980 2018
$14.99$22.95
Change
Reduced
by 80%
$22.46
Per Hour
$6.85
Per Hour
3.35 Hours 0.67 Hours
5x
1980 2018
$71.98$459.95
Change
Reduced
by 95.2%
$22.46
Per Hour
$6.85
Per Hour
67.1 Hours 3.2 Hours
21x
1980 2018
$62.89$459.95
Change
Reduced
by 95.8%
$22.46
Per Hour
$6.85
Per Hour
67.1 Hours 2.8 Hours 24x
1980 2018
$36.80$399.85
Change
Reduced
by 97.2%
$22.46
Per Hour
$6.85
Per Hour
58.4 Hours 1.6 Hours 36x
5x
21x
24x
36x
1980 2018
2018 8.3 hours 1 day
1980 196 hours 24 days
Reduced
95.8%
187.7
Hours
Saved
24x
In 1980 you invite 100 guests for dinner
The cost per guest is $10
The total bill is $1,000
In 2018 you invite 71 percent more guests but the
cost per guest has fallen by 72 percent.
What is the bill?
171 x $2.80
= $478.80
Your bill has fallen by over 52 percent
It’s simple calculus.
This universe is finite,
its resources, finite.
If life is left
unchecked, life will
cease to exist.
It needs correcting.
Society needs
rescaling – we’ve got
to reduce the size of
the entire human
enterprise.
Paul Ehrlich
Source: The Telegraph,
3/15/2013
40 million
extra men
55 million abortions per year
“Is it still
okay to
have
children?”
The power of
population is
indefinitely greater
than the power in
the earth to produce
subsistence for man.
Thomas Malthus
For the earth is full, and there is enough and
to spare; yea, I prepared all things, and have
given unto the children of men to be agents
unto themselves.
- D&C 104:17
Malthus Ehrlich Thanos
Wrong Level of Analysis
Prices
Population
Scarcity
Abundance
Julian Simon
Paul Ehrlich
Would
Julian Simon
still win
today?
50 Items
38 Years
5 Items
10 years
50 datapoints 1,900 datapoints
Simon-Ehrlich
Bet
1980-1990
Simon Abundance
Index
1980-2018
Project
Abundance
50 Commodities
Time Prices
Price Elasticity of Population
Simon Abundance Index
The relationship
between population
and time prices
Abundance
INTERNATIONAL
MONETARY FUND
Innovation
Lower prices
Higher incomes
See the whole picture
The real price of
everything is the toil
and trouble of
acquiring it …. What
is bought with
money... is
purchased by labour.
Adam Smith
Money Price Time Price
Dollars and
Cents
Hours and
Minutes
Money Prices
Real Price
Nominal Price
Deflator
=
Time Prices
Money Price
Hourly Income
Time Prices
Money Price
Hourly Income
GDP per Capita per Hour
GDP Per Capita
Annual Hours Worked
÷
1980 - 2018
1980 2018
Percentage
Change Source or Equation
Nominal Price $0.40 $0.79 97.5% World Bank
GDP per Capita $2,507 $11,464 357.3% World Bank
Hours Worked 2,166 1,965 -9.3% The Conference Board
GDP per Capita
per Hour
$1.16 $5.83 404.1%
GDP per Capita ÷ Hours
Worked
Time Price in
Hours
0.346 0.135 -60.8%
Nominal Price ÷ GDP per
Capita per Hour
Time Price in
Minutes
21 8 -60.8% Time Price in Hours x 60
Percentage Change
Time Price Multiplier
Percentage Change Time Price Multiplier
Compounded Annual Growth Rate
Years to Double
How many units of an item the same
time would purchase at different
points in times?
Time Price 1980
Time Price 2018
Time Price Multiplier
TPM =
Time Price -60.8%
Time Price Multiplier 2.55
Percentage Change 155%
Compound Annual
Growth Rate
2.50%
Years to Double 28.1
1980 - 2018
Oranges
SimonProject
50 Commodities
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Time Prices 1980 = 100
—72.3 Percent
1980 - 2018
50 Commodities
Findings
Time Price -72.3%
Time Price Multiplier 3.62
Percentage Change 262%
Compound Annual
Growth Rate
3.44%
Years to Double 20.5
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Population and Time Prices
1980 = 100
Population
Time Prices
+71.2 Percent
—72.3 Percent
Population and Time Prices
1980 = 100
Price Elasticity of Population
1980 - 2018
= - 1.016
For every one percent increase in
population, prices declined around one
percent
- 72.3%
=
%∆ in Time Prices
%∆ in Population +71.2%
Decreasing Abundance
Emerging Abundance
Accelerating Abundance
Superabundance
Abundance Zones
In 1980 you invite 100 guests for dinner
The cost per guest is $10
The bill is $1,000
In 2018 you invite 71 percent more guests but the
cost per guest has fallen by 72 percent.
What is the bill?
171 x $2.80
= $478.80
Your bill has fallen by over 52 percent
What is
Superabundance?
No matter how many more
people come to dinner, your
bill decreases
Measures abundance since
1980
Set 1980 equal to 100
Simon Abundance Index
SAI
Change in Time Price Multiplier
x
1 + %∆ in Population
x
100
Simon Abundance Index
= 3.62 x 1.712 x 100
= 618.98
Simon Abundance Index
1980 100.00
2018 618.98
Percentage Change 519.0%
Growth Rate 5.05%
Years to Double 14.07
Malthus Ehrlich Thanos
Wrong Level of Analysis
Quantity
Money Price
Time Price
Change in Time Prices
Addition
Values
Ratios
Calculus
How many keys?
How many songs?
Thanksgiving Dinner Time
Cost for 10 Percent Price
1986 2018 Change Multiplier
Nominal Money Price $28.74 $48.90 70.1%
Hourly Income Rates
Unskilled $5.25 $12.70 142.0%
Blue-Collar $12.90 $32.06 148.5%
Upskilling $5.25 $32.06 510.9%
Time Prices in Hours
Unskilled 5.48 3.85 -29.7%
Blue -Collar 2.23 1.53 -31.5%
Upskilling 5.48 1.53 -72.1%
Time Prices in Minutes per Person
Unskilled 32.9 23.1 -29.7% 1.42
Blue-Collar 13.4 9.2 -31.5% 1.46
Upskilling 32.9 9.2 -72.1% 3.59
1956
$48.00
2006
$0.18
1970
$100.00
2019
$22.00
Abundance has
been increasing
at an increasing
rate
On what principle is it
that with nothing but
improvement behind us,
we are to expect
nothing but
deterioration before
us?”
Thomas Babington Macaulay

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