Macro 21a
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This document presents information about time prices and the relationship between population growth and resource abundance. It analyzes time price data for 50 commodities from 1980 to 2018 and finds that: - The average time price decreased by 72.3%, meaning resources require less work time to obtain now than in the past. - U.S. population increased by 71.2% over this period. - The price elasticity of population (the responsiveness of prices to population changes) was -1.016, meaning a 1% rise in population correlated with a 1% decline in prices. - An index measuring overall abundance, the Simon Abundance Index, increased 519% from 1980 to 2018, equivalent to a
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Macro 21a
- 2. Name ___ Sec.__Quiz 13 A Big Mac costs £3.29 in Britain and US$5.74 in the United States. What should you do and how much will you earn? Assume shipping cost of $1.00
- 3. Economics The study of how human beings create value for one another
- 5. Time Price Database 1980 2018
- 6. 1980 2018 $14.99$22.95 Change Reduced by 80% $22.46 Per Hour $6.85 Per Hour 3.35 Hours 0.67 Hours 5x
- 7. 1980 2018 $71.98$459.95 Change Reduced by 95.2% $22.46 Per Hour $6.85 Per Hour 67.1 Hours 3.2 Hours 21x
- 8. 1980 2018 $62.89$459.95 Change Reduced by 95.8% $22.46 Per Hour $6.85 Per Hour 67.1 Hours 2.8 Hours 24x
- 9. 1980 2018 $36.80$399.85 Change Reduced by 97.2% $22.46 Per Hour $6.85 Per Hour 58.4 Hours 1.6 Hours 36x
- 11. 2018 8.3 hours 1 day 1980 196 hours 24 days Reduced 95.8% 187.7 Hours Saved 24x
- 12. 1997 2017 Increased by 200% You only get 1/3 of a textbook Time Price decreased by 96.0% You get 25 TVs TV College Textbooks In the past 20 years textbooks have become 75 times more expensive relative to TVs 25 ÷ .33 = 75
- 13. Killing Thanos: Destroying the Myth of Overpopulation and Resource Scarcity Saturday July 20, 2019 at 2:10pm Gale Pooley, PhD Marian Tupy, PhD
- 14. It’s simple calculus. This universe is finite, its resources, finite. If life is left unchecked, life will cease to exist. It needs correcting.
- 16. I am inevitable
- 17. Society needs rescaling – we’ve got to reduce the size of the entire human enterprise. Paul Ehrlich
- 19. Source: The Telegraph, 3/15/2013 34 million extra men
- 20. “Is it still okay to have children?”
- 21. The power of population is indefinitely greater than the power in the earth to produce subsistence for man. Thomas Malthus
- 22. For the earth is full, and there is enough and to spare; yea, I prepared all things, and have given unto the children of men to be agents unto themselves. - D&C 104:17
- 27. 50 Items 38 Years 5 Items 10 years 50 datapoints 1,900 datapoints Simon-Ehrlich Bet 1980-1990 Simon Abundance Index 1980-2018
- 29. Project Abundance 50 Commodities Time Prices Price Elasticity of Population Simon Abundance Index
- 30. The relationship between population and time prices Abundance
- 32. Innovation Lower prices Higher incomes See the whole picture
- 33. The real price of everything is the toil and trouble of acquiring it …. What is bought with money... is purchased by labour. Adam Smith
- 34. Money Price Time Price Dollars and Cents Hours and Minutes
- 35. Money Prices Real Price Nominal Price Deflator =
- 36. Time Prices Money Price Hourly Income
- 37. Time Prices Money Price Hourly Income
- 38. GDP per Capita per Hour GDP Per Capita Annual Hours Worked ÷
- 39. 1980 - 2018
- 40. 1980 2018 Percentage Change Source or Equation Nominal Price $0.40 $0.79 97.5% World Bank GDP per Capita $2,507 $11,464 357.3% World Bank Hours Worked 2,166 1,965 -9.3% The Conference Board GDP per Capita per Hour $1.16 $5.83 404.1% GDP per Capita ÷ Hours Worked Time Price in Hours 0.346 0.135 -60.8% Nominal Price ÷ GDP per Capita per Hour Time Price in Minutes 21 8 -60.8% Time Price in Hours x 60
- 42. 1980 21 min 2018 8 min Percent Change -61.9% Multipler 2.63 Compound Annual Growth Rate 2.57% Years to Double 28
- 44. Percentage Change Time Price Multiplier Percentage Change Time Price Multiplier Compounded Annual Growth Rate Years to Double
- 45. How many units of an item the same time would purchase at different points in times? Time Price 1980 Time Price 2018 Time Price Multiplier TPM =
- 46. = Time Price Multiplier - 1 Percentage Change in the Time Price Multiplier
- 47. = Time Price Multiplier Compounded Annual Growth Rate CAGR 1 Years -1
- 48. = Log(2) ÷ Log(1 + CAGR) Years to Double = 70 ÷ CAGR
- 49. Time Price -60.8% Time Price Multiplier 2.55 Percentage Change 155% Compound Annual Growth Rate 2.50% Years to Double 28.1 1980 - 2018 Oranges
- 51. 1980 - 2018 50 Commodities Findings Time Price -72.3% Time Price Multiplier 3.62 Percentage Change 262% Compound Annual Growth Rate 3.44% Years to Double 20.5
- 52. Percentage Change in Time Prices Percentage Change in Population We assume that Population is always increasing Price Elasticity of Population
- 53. 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Population and Time Prices 1980 = 100 Population Time Prices +71.2 Percent —72.3 Percent Population and Time Prices 1980 = 100
- 54. Price Elasticity of Population 1980 - 2018 = - 1.016 For every one percent increase in population, prices declined around one percent - 72.3% = %∆ in Time Prices %∆ in Population +71.2%
- 55. In 1980 you invite 100 guests for dinner The cost per guest is $10 The bill is $1,000 In 2018 you invite 71 percent more guests but the cost per guest has fallen by 72 percent. What is the bill? 171 x $2.80 = $478.80 Your bill has fallen by over 52 percent
- 56. What is Superabundance? No matter how many more people come to dinner, your bill decreases
- 57. Measures abundance since 1980 Set 1980 equal to 100 Simon Abundance Index SAI
- 58. Change in Time Price Multiplier x 1 + %∆ in Population x 100 Simon Abundance Index = 3.62 x 1.712 x 100 = 618.98
- 60. Simon Abundance Index 1980 100.00 2018 618.98 Percentage Change 519.0% Growth Rate 5.05% Years to Double 14.07
- 61. Project Abundance 50 Commodities Time Prices Price Elasticity of Population Simon Abundance Index
- 64. Malthus Ehrlich Thanos Wrong Level of Analysis
- 65. Quantity Money Price Time Price Change in Time Prices Addition Values Ratios Calculus
- 66. How many keys? How many songs?