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Robin Hanson PM Summit SFO 2009

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Robin Hanson PM Summit SFO 2009

  1. 1. Combinatorial Prediction Markets Robin Hanson Associate Professor of Economics, GMU
  2. 2. Forecasting Institutions Forecasts On Requested Topics Edits & Suggestions By Contributors
  3. 3. Issues <ul><li>Input Edits </li></ul><ul><li>What info can express? </li></ul><ul><li>How account for costs? </li></ul><ul><li>Who let in where? </li></ul><ul><li>Enough Incentives </li></ul><ul><ul><li>T-shirts enough? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Zero-sum scoring? </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Limit Costs </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Awkward Interface </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Wait for offer accept </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Retribution </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Output Forecasts </li></ul><ul><li>What questions can ask? </li></ul><ul><li>How account for value? </li></ul><ul><li>Use or validate system? </li></ul><ul><li>Should adjust outputs? </li></ul><ul><li>Sabotage & manipulation </li></ul><ul><li>Can keep results secret? </li></ul><ul><li>Legal, P.R. risks? </li></ul>
  4. 4. Factors Might Influence Sales <ul><li>Economy recovers fast? </li></ul><ul><li>Competitors introduce new version? </li></ul><ul><li>We do big promotion? </li></ul><ul><li>We lower prices? They lower prices? </li></ul><ul><li>We add distribution channel? </li></ul><ul><li>We add feature F? They add feature F? </li></ul><ul><li>Our defect rate very low? </li></ul>E[Sales|Factor] P[Factor]
  5. 5. Combo Betting Win Place Show Not Not Not Yoopick Facebook Application Win Place Show All outcomes
  6. 6. Sport Finals Tickets Ticket if Greece in Finals Greece v. Croatia UEFA EURO 2008 Austria Croatia Czech Germany Poland Portugal Switzerl. Turkey France Greece Italy Netherl. Romania Russia Spain Actual Game Sweden
  7. 7. US President Decision Markets Politi metrics .com
  8. 8. PAM Scenario Saudi Arabian 100 75 125 1 03 2 03 3 03 4 03 1 04 2 04 65 35 70 30 30 35 25 10 15 40 35 10 100 94 Economic Health New Price < IQcs4 03 85 Return to Focus ? Trade SAum3 03 105-125 No Trade Exit Issue Max Up Max Dn 10% Dn 10% Up You Pick 62.47% Buy Sell > IQcs4 03 85 Payoffs: 68.72% 56.79% 48.54% 95.13% 22.98% +$2.74 -$15.34 +$34.74 $0.00 $0.00 -$2.61 -2.04 -$3.28 -$85.18 -$120.74 +$2.74 65 +$26.02 +1.43 +$96.61 & If 65% Ave. pay < 85 Select $0.00 +0.34 -$1.07 -$19.72 -$1.12 -$6.31 -$22.22 % Update Execute a Trade ? Return to Form Execute Abort trade if price has changed? If US military involvement in Saudi Arabia in 3 rd Quarter 2003 is not between 105 and 125, this trade is null and void. Otherwise, if Iraq civil stability in 4 th Quarter 2003 is below 85, then I will receive $1.43, but if it is not below 85, I will pay $2.04.
  9. 9. Imagine A Dashboard Ave. Worth: $12,459 Us Them A Them B Base Price $240 $187 $320 Ship Date May ’09 Mar ’09 July ’09 Features Autozoop 38% 69% 15% Fizzywoo 59% 8% 43% Unit Sales Total 120K 148K 97K Base model 82K 65K 88K Via internet 43K 12K 73K Promotion Magazine $30K $50K $3K Circulars $45 $34K $39K
  10. 10. Ask For Detail Ave.Worth: $12,459 Us Them A Them B Base Price $240 $187 $320 Ship Date May ’09 Mar ’09 July ’09 Features Autozoop 38% 69% 15% Fizzywoo 59% 8% 43% Unit Sales Total 120K 148K 97K Base model 82K 65K 88K Via internet 43K 12K 73K Promotion Magazine $30K $50K $3K Circulars $45 $34K $39K J F M A M J J A S O N D 2009 2010 Them B Ship Date
  11. 11. Make An Edit Ave. Worth: $12,459 Us Them A Them B Base Price $240 $187 $320 Ship Date May ’09 Mar ’09 July ’09 Features Autozoop 40% 69% 15% Fizzywoo 59% 8% 43% Unit Sales Total 120K 148K 97K Base model 82K 65K 88K Via internet 43K 12K 73K Promotion Magazine $30K $50K $3K Circulars $45 $34K $39K If We Have Autozoop, you gain $53 But if We Don’t Have It You lose $78. OK?
  12. 12. Make an Assumption Ave. Worth: $10,724 Scenario: 15% Us Them A Them B Base Price $240 $187 $253 Ship Date Apr ’09 Mar ’09 Assume Mar Features Autozoop 38% 69% 4% Fizzywoo 59% 8% 13% Unit Sales Total 120K 148K 107K Base model 82K 65K 94K Via internet 43K 12K 84K Promotion Magazine $30K $50K $17K Circulars $45 $34K $49K
  13. 13. Add 2nd Assumption Ave. Worth: $10,724 Scenario: 2.3% Us Them A Them B Base Price $240 $187 $253 Ship Date Apr ’09 Mar ’09 Assume Mar Features Autozoop 38% 69% 4% Fizzywoo 59% 8% 13% Unit Sales Total 185K 148K 107K Base model 97K 65K 94K Via internet 78K 12K 84K Promotion Magazine Assume $40K $50K $17K Circulars $45 $34K $49K
  14. 14. Edit As Before Ave. Worth: $10,724 Scenario: 2.3% Us Them A Them B Base Price $240 $187 $253 Ship Date Apr ’09 Mar ’09 Assume Mar Features Autozoop 42% 69% 4% Fizzywoo 59% 8% 13% Unit Sales Total 185K 148K 107K Base model 97K 65K 94K Via internet 78K 12K 84K Promotion Magazine Assume $40K $50K $17K Circulars $45 $34K $49K If we have Autozoop, you gain $53 But if we don’t have it You lose $78. OK?
  15. 15. Laboratory Tests <ul><li>Joint work with John Ledyard (Caltech), Takashi Ishida (Net Exchange) </li></ul><ul><li>Trained in 3var problem, return for 8var </li></ul><ul><li>Metric: Kulback-Leibler  i q i log (p i /q i ) distance from market prices to Bayesian beliefs given all group info </li></ul>
  16. 16. Combo Market Maker Best of 5 Mechs 3 subjects, 7 prices, 5 minutes 6 subjects, 256 prices, 5 minutes
  17. 17. Combinatorial Lab Experiments <ul><li>7 indep. prices from 3 folks in 4 min. </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Simple Double Auction < Scoring Rule ~ Opinion Pool ~ Combinatorial Call < Market Scoring Rule </li></ul></ul><ul><li>255 indep. prices from 6 folks in 5 min. </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Combinatorial Call ~ Simple Double Auction ~ Scoring Rule < Opinion Pool ~ Market Scoring Rule </li></ul></ul>
  18. 18. MSR Info vs. Time – 7 Prices 0 5 10 15 Minutes 0 -1 1 % Info Agg. = KL(prices,group) KL(uniform,group) 1-
  19. 19. MSR Info vs. Time – 255 prices 0 5 10 15 Minutes 0 -1 1 % Info Agg. = KL(prices,group) KL(uniform,group) 1-
  20. 20. Issues <ul><li>Input Edits </li></ul><ul><li>What info can express? </li></ul><ul><li>How account for costs? </li></ul><ul><li>Who let in where? </li></ul><ul><li>Enough Incentives </li></ul><ul><ul><li>T-shirts enough? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Zero-sum scoring? </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Limit Costs </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Awkward Interface </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Wait for offer accept </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Retribution </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Output Forecasts </li></ul><ul><li>What questions can ask? </li></ul><ul><li>How account for value? </li></ul><ul><li>Use or validate system? </li></ul><ul><li>Should adjust outputs? </li></ul><ul><li>Sabotage & manipulation </li></ul><ul><li>Can keep results secret? </li></ul><ul><li>Legal, P.R. risks? </li></ul>
  21. 21. A Simple Implementation States + - LISP: http://hanson.gmu.edu/mktscore-prototype.html Prices User Assets $1 if A&B $1 if B + q 1 - q 2 f 1 >1 f 2 <1 A B
  22. 22. A Simple Implementation States Prices User Assets A&B  A&B

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