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Vodafone	
  Digital	
  Transforma2on	
  Summit	
  |	
  Istanbul	
  |	
  14	
  May	
  2015	
  
Future	
  Agenda	
  2.0	
  |	
  The	
  World	
  in	
  2020	
  
This	
  morning	
  we	
  will	
  share	
  4	
  perspec2ves	
  
Looking	
  Ahead	
  and	
  Future	
  Agenda	
  
Digital	
  Insights	
  from	
  2010	
  for	
  2020	
  
Digital	
  Insights	
  for	
  the	
  Future	
  from	
  Today	
  
Areas	
  where	
  Digital	
  Transforma2on	
  is	
  Needed	
  
Looking	
  Forwards	
  
Organisa2ons	
  increasingly	
  want	
  to	
  iden2fy	
  and	
  understand	
  
	
  both	
  the	
  an2cipated	
  and	
  unexpected	
  changes	
  	
  
so	
  that	
  they	
  can	
  be	
  beMer	
  prepared	
  for	
  the	
  future.	
  
Future	
  Agenda	
  
The	
  Future	
  Agenda	
  is	
  the	
  world’s	
  largest	
  open	
  foresight	
  program	
  	
  
that	
  accesses	
  mul2ple	
  views	
  of	
  the	
  next	
  decade	
  from	
  around	
  the	
  	
  
world	
  so	
  all	
  can	
  be	
  beMer	
  informed	
  and	
  s2mulate	
  innova2on.	
  
FA	
  1.0	
  Top	
  Insights	
  for	
  2020	
  
From	
  the	
  2010	
  program,	
  50+	
  key	
  insights	
  on	
  the	
  next	
  decade	
  were	
  shared	
  
widely	
  via	
  books	
  and	
  online	
  and	
  have	
  been	
  extensively	
  used	
  by	
  many	
  
organisa2ons	
  around	
  the	
  world.	
  Several	
  relate	
  to	
  the	
  impact	
  of	
  digital.	
  
Ubiquitous	
  Data	
  Access	
  
By	
  2020,	
  we	
  will	
  finally	
  be	
  connected	
  everywhere	
  -­‐	
  everything	
  	
  
that	
  can	
  benefit	
  from	
  a	
  network	
  connec2on	
  will	
  have	
  one	
  and	
  	
  
all	
  will	
  have	
  the	
  poten2al	
  to	
  access	
  more	
  informa2on.	
  
All	
  DigiAzed	
  
By	
  2020	
  all	
  the	
  world’s	
  informa2on	
  is	
  digi2zed,	
  storage	
  is	
  nearly	
  	
  
free	
  and	
  the	
  volume	
  of	
  data	
  in	
  the	
  world	
  is	
  doubling	
  monthly	
  –	
  	
  
we	
  can	
  all	
  instantly	
  access	
  the	
  21st	
  century	
  archive.	
  
Dynamic	
  Pricing	
  
Real-­‐2me	
  data	
  from	
  pervasive	
  smart	
  meters,	
  intelligent	
  infrastructures	
  	
  
and	
  ubiquitous	
  tracking	
  services	
  create	
  plaXorms	
  for	
  the	
  dynamic	
  	
  
pricing	
  of	
  resources,	
  access	
  and	
  travel	
  to	
  manage	
  demand.	
  
Owning	
  Your	
  Digital	
  Shadow	
  
Increasing	
  consumer	
  awareness	
  of	
  the	
  value	
  of	
  their	
  digital	
  footprints	
  	
  
drives	
  the	
  desire	
  for	
  greater	
  ownership	
  and	
  control	
  of	
  personal	
  data	
  	
  
-­‐	
  balancing	
  access	
  with	
  convenience	
  and	
  benefit.	
  
PredicAve	
  AnalyAcs	
  
The	
  mining	
  and	
  (re)combina2on	
  of	
  mul2ple	
  disparate	
  data	
  sources	
  to	
  	
  
model	
  and	
  analyze	
  current	
  and	
  historical	
  facts	
  enable	
  more	
  organisa2ons	
  
	
  to	
  predict	
  future	
  ac2ons	
  and	
  beMer	
  an2cipate	
  emergent	
  needs.	
  
Cocktail	
  IdenAAes	
  
The	
  need	
  to	
  differen2ate	
  between	
  real	
  and	
  virtual	
  
	
  disappears	
  -­‐	
  who	
  you	
  are	
  ceases	
  to	
  use	
  a	
  singular	
  iden2ty	
  	
  
as	
  we	
  concurrently	
  manage	
  and	
  share	
  mul2ple	
  iden2ty	
  porXolios.	
  
Future	
  Agenda	
  in	
  Numbers	
  
The	
  first	
  Future	
  Agenda	
  programme	
  engaged	
  many	
  views	
  in	
  25	
  countries.	
  
Future	
  Agenda	
  2.0	
  is	
  doubling	
  the	
  face-­‐to-­‐face	
  interac2on,	
  engaging	
  directly	
  
with	
  100,000	
  consumers	
  and	
  raising	
  online	
  sharing,	
  debate	
  and	
  discussion.	
  
Future	
  Agenda	
  1.0	
  
	
  
1	
  HOST	
  (Vodafone)	
  
16	
  TOPICS	
  
25	
  COUNTRIES	
  
50	
  WORKSHOPS	
  
1500	
  ORGANISATIONS	
  
Future	
  Agenda	
  2.0	
  
	
  
35	
  HOSTS	
  
20	
  TOPICS	
  
50	
  COUNTRIES	
  
100	
  WORKSHOPS	
  
2500	
  ORGANISATIONS	
  
Knowing	
  The	
  Unknown	
  
By	
  2020	
  people	
  and	
  connected	
  objects	
  will	
  generate	
  40	
  trillion	
  gigabytes	
  of	
  
data	
  that	
  will	
  have	
  an	
  impact	
  on	
  daily	
  life	
  in	
  one	
  way	
  or	
  another.	
  This	
  data	
  will	
  
make	
  known	
  about	
  us	
  things	
  that	
  were	
  previously	
  unknown	
  or	
  unknowable.	
  
Linkability	
  of	
  Open	
  Data	
  
No	
  data	
  will	
  be	
  truly	
  anonymous:	
  Current	
  open	
  data	
  prac2ce	
  assumes	
  that	
  
technology	
  will	
  be	
  not	
  be	
  able	
  to	
  relink	
  it	
  to	
  its	
  source.	
  This	
  is	
  not	
  the	
  
	
  case	
  and	
  so,	
  by	
  2025,	
  we	
  will	
  see	
  different	
  levels	
  of	
  de-­‐iden2fica2on.	
  	
  
Global	
  vs.	
  Local	
  
Technology	
  is	
  by	
  its	
  very	
  nature	
  global	
  and	
  data	
  does	
  not	
  respect	
  na2onal	
  
boundaries.	
  Can	
  na2on	
  states	
  con2nue	
  to	
  set	
  the	
  rules	
  or	
  will	
  tension	
  in	
  global	
  
interoperability	
  drive	
  us	
  to	
  design	
  for	
  global	
  standards	
  but	
  with	
  localised	
  use?	
  
Data	
  Marketplaces	
  	
  
Data	
  is	
  a	
  currency,	
  it	
  has	
  a	
  value	
  and	
  a	
  price,	
  and	
  therefore	
  requires	
  a	
  	
  
market	
  place.	
  An	
  ecosystem	
  for	
  trading	
  data	
  is	
  emerging	
  -­‐	
  anything	
  	
  
that	
  is	
  informa2on	
  will	
  be	
  represented	
  in	
  new	
  data	
  marketplaces.	
  	
  
Value	
  of	
  Data	
  
There	
  is	
  a	
  huge	
  economic	
  incen2ve	
  to	
  generate	
  and	
  collect	
  data	
  from	
  	
  
whatever	
  sources	
  it	
  becomes	
  available.	
  As	
  more	
  data	
  from	
  more	
  things	
  
becomes	
  available,	
  we	
  can	
  expect	
  to	
  see	
  a	
  data	
  ‘land	
  grab’	
  by	
  organisa2ons.	
  	
  
Privacy	
  is	
  a	
  Public	
  Issue	
  
The	
  public’s	
  percep2on	
  of	
  the	
  threats	
  to	
  privacy,	
  personal	
  freedom	
  	
  
and	
  autonomy	
  is	
  growing.	
  Privacy	
  has	
  already	
  emerged	
  beyond	
  a	
  	
  
niche,	
  specialist	
  concern	
  to	
  being	
  a	
  mainstream	
  public	
  issue.	
  	
  
Personally	
  Curated	
  Data	
  
‘Personally	
  curated’	
  sources	
  of	
  data	
  will	
  have	
  higher	
  value	
  simply	
  due	
  to	
  the	
  
fact	
  that	
  they	
  will	
  represent	
  the	
  actual	
  wishes	
  and	
  desires	
  of	
  an	
  individual,	
  
rather	
  than	
  the	
  presumed	
  wishes	
  and	
  desires	
  based	
  on	
  derived	
  data.	
  	
  
Public	
  Data	
  
	
  Economically	
  connected	
  data	
  can	
  play	
  a	
  significant	
  role	
  that	
  will	
  benefit	
  not	
  
only	
  private	
  commerce	
  but	
  also	
  na2onal	
  economies	
  and	
  their	
  ci2zens.	
  Analysis	
  
can	
  provide	
  the	
  public	
  sector	
  with	
  a	
  new	
  world	
  of	
  performance	
  poten2al.	
  	
  
Some	
  Other	
  Areas	
  That	
  Can	
  Gain	
  From	
  Digital	
  Transforma2on	
  
Self-­‐Organised	
  Learning	
  
By	
  removing	
  adult	
  restric2ons	
  on	
  educa2on	
  and	
  providing	
  children	
  	
  
with	
  Internet	
  access	
  and	
  on-­‐line	
  support	
  and	
  encouragement,	
  	
  
children	
  are	
  able	
  to	
  self-­‐organise	
  and	
  learn.	
  
Inequality	
  On	
  The	
  Agenda	
  
Inequality	
  has	
  become	
  a	
  concern	
  not	
  just	
  for	
  developing	
  countries	
  but	
  also	
  for	
  
those	
  in	
  the	
  West:	
  The	
  majority	
  believe	
  the	
  most	
  pressing	
  problem	
  is	
  inequality	
  
of	
  wealth	
  as	
  well	
  as	
  unequal	
  access	
  to	
  health	
  and	
  digital	
  connec2vity.	
  
Reducing	
  Food	
  Waste	
  
Postharvest	
  losses	
  of	
  plant	
  foods	
  can	
  be	
  substan2al	
  in	
  developing	
  countries	
  
and	
  amount	
  to	
  30-­‐50%	
  of	
  produc2on.	
  In	
  developed	
  countries	
  we	
  throw	
  away	
  a	
  
similar	
  propor2on.	
  The	
  combined	
  loss	
  would	
  feed	
  about	
  3	
  billion	
  people.	
  
FloaAng	
  CiAes?	
  
Climate	
  change	
  poses	
  a	
  worrying	
  challenge	
  for	
  ci2es.	
  50%	
  of	
  ci2es	
  are	
  dealing	
  
with	
  its	
  effects,	
  and	
  nearly	
  all	
  are	
  at	
  risk.	
  Over	
  90%	
  of	
  all	
  urban	
  areas	
  are	
  
coastal,	
  pukng	
  most	
  major	
  ci2es	
  on	
  the	
  planet	
  at	
  risk	
  of	
  flooding.	
  	
  
Future	
  Agenda	
  
84	
  Brook	
  Street	
  
London	
  
W1K	
  5EH	
  
+44	
  203	
  0088	
  141	
  
futureagenda.org	
  
The	
  world’s	
  leading	
  open	
  foresight	
  program	
  
What	
  do	
  you	
  think?	
  
Join	
  In	
  |	
  Add	
  your	
  views	
  into	
  the	
  mix	
  
	
  
www.futureagenda.org	
  

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Vodafone Turkey The world in 2020 - 14 05 15

  • 1. Vodafone  Digital  Transforma2on  Summit  |  Istanbul  |  14  May  2015   Future  Agenda  2.0  |  The  World  in  2020  
  • 2. This  morning  we  will  share  4  perspec2ves   Looking  Ahead  and  Future  Agenda   Digital  Insights  from  2010  for  2020   Digital  Insights  for  the  Future  from  Today   Areas  where  Digital  Transforma2on  is  Needed  
  • 3. Looking  Forwards   Organisa2ons  increasingly  want  to  iden2fy  and  understand    both  the  an2cipated  and  unexpected  changes     so  that  they  can  be  beMer  prepared  for  the  future.  
  • 4. Future  Agenda   The  Future  Agenda  is  the  world’s  largest  open  foresight  program     that  accesses  mul2ple  views  of  the  next  decade  from  around  the     world  so  all  can  be  beMer  informed  and  s2mulate  innova2on.  
  • 5. FA  1.0  Top  Insights  for  2020   From  the  2010  program,  50+  key  insights  on  the  next  decade  were  shared   widely  via  books  and  online  and  have  been  extensively  used  by  many   organisa2ons  around  the  world.  Several  relate  to  the  impact  of  digital.  
  • 6. Ubiquitous  Data  Access   By  2020,  we  will  finally  be  connected  everywhere  -­‐  everything     that  can  benefit  from  a  network  connec2on  will  have  one  and     all  will  have  the  poten2al  to  access  more  informa2on.  
  • 7. All  DigiAzed   By  2020  all  the  world’s  informa2on  is  digi2zed,  storage  is  nearly     free  and  the  volume  of  data  in  the  world  is  doubling  monthly  –     we  can  all  instantly  access  the  21st  century  archive.  
  • 8. Dynamic  Pricing   Real-­‐2me  data  from  pervasive  smart  meters,  intelligent  infrastructures     and  ubiquitous  tracking  services  create  plaXorms  for  the  dynamic     pricing  of  resources,  access  and  travel  to  manage  demand.  
  • 9. Owning  Your  Digital  Shadow   Increasing  consumer  awareness  of  the  value  of  their  digital  footprints     drives  the  desire  for  greater  ownership  and  control  of  personal  data     -­‐  balancing  access  with  convenience  and  benefit.  
  • 10. PredicAve  AnalyAcs   The  mining  and  (re)combina2on  of  mul2ple  disparate  data  sources  to     model  and  analyze  current  and  historical  facts  enable  more  organisa2ons    to  predict  future  ac2ons  and  beMer  an2cipate  emergent  needs.  
  • 11. Cocktail  IdenAAes   The  need  to  differen2ate  between  real  and  virtual    disappears  -­‐  who  you  are  ceases  to  use  a  singular  iden2ty     as  we  concurrently  manage  and  share  mul2ple  iden2ty  porXolios.  
  • 12. Future  Agenda  in  Numbers   The  first  Future  Agenda  programme  engaged  many  views  in  25  countries.   Future  Agenda  2.0  is  doubling  the  face-­‐to-­‐face  interac2on,  engaging  directly   with  100,000  consumers  and  raising  online  sharing,  debate  and  discussion.   Future  Agenda  1.0     1  HOST  (Vodafone)   16  TOPICS   25  COUNTRIES   50  WORKSHOPS   1500  ORGANISATIONS   Future  Agenda  2.0     35  HOSTS   20  TOPICS   50  COUNTRIES   100  WORKSHOPS   2500  ORGANISATIONS  
  • 13. Knowing  The  Unknown   By  2020  people  and  connected  objects  will  generate  40  trillion  gigabytes  of   data  that  will  have  an  impact  on  daily  life  in  one  way  or  another.  This  data  will   make  known  about  us  things  that  were  previously  unknown  or  unknowable.  
  • 14. Linkability  of  Open  Data   No  data  will  be  truly  anonymous:  Current  open  data  prac2ce  assumes  that   technology  will  be  not  be  able  to  relink  it  to  its  source.  This  is  not  the    case  and  so,  by  2025,  we  will  see  different  levels  of  de-­‐iden2fica2on.    
  • 15. Global  vs.  Local   Technology  is  by  its  very  nature  global  and  data  does  not  respect  na2onal   boundaries.  Can  na2on  states  con2nue  to  set  the  rules  or  will  tension  in  global   interoperability  drive  us  to  design  for  global  standards  but  with  localised  use?  
  • 16. Data  Marketplaces     Data  is  a  currency,  it  has  a  value  and  a  price,  and  therefore  requires  a     market  place.  An  ecosystem  for  trading  data  is  emerging  -­‐  anything     that  is  informa2on  will  be  represented  in  new  data  marketplaces.    
  • 17. Value  of  Data   There  is  a  huge  economic  incen2ve  to  generate  and  collect  data  from     whatever  sources  it  becomes  available.  As  more  data  from  more  things   becomes  available,  we  can  expect  to  see  a  data  ‘land  grab’  by  organisa2ons.    
  • 18. Privacy  is  a  Public  Issue   The  public’s  percep2on  of  the  threats  to  privacy,  personal  freedom     and  autonomy  is  growing.  Privacy  has  already  emerged  beyond  a     niche,  specialist  concern  to  being  a  mainstream  public  issue.    
  • 19. Personally  Curated  Data   ‘Personally  curated’  sources  of  data  will  have  higher  value  simply  due  to  the   fact  that  they  will  represent  the  actual  wishes  and  desires  of  an  individual,   rather  than  the  presumed  wishes  and  desires  based  on  derived  data.    
  • 20. Public  Data    Economically  connected  data  can  play  a  significant  role  that  will  benefit  not   only  private  commerce  but  also  na2onal  economies  and  their  ci2zens.  Analysis   can  provide  the  public  sector  with  a  new  world  of  performance  poten2al.    
  • 21. Some  Other  Areas  That  Can  Gain  From  Digital  Transforma2on  
  • 22. Self-­‐Organised  Learning   By  removing  adult  restric2ons  on  educa2on  and  providing  children     with  Internet  access  and  on-­‐line  support  and  encouragement,     children  are  able  to  self-­‐organise  and  learn.  
  • 23. Inequality  On  The  Agenda   Inequality  has  become  a  concern  not  just  for  developing  countries  but  also  for   those  in  the  West:  The  majority  believe  the  most  pressing  problem  is  inequality   of  wealth  as  well  as  unequal  access  to  health  and  digital  connec2vity.  
  • 24. Reducing  Food  Waste   Postharvest  losses  of  plant  foods  can  be  substan2al  in  developing  countries   and  amount  to  30-­‐50%  of  produc2on.  In  developed  countries  we  throw  away  a   similar  propor2on.  The  combined  loss  would  feed  about  3  billion  people.  
  • 25. FloaAng  CiAes?   Climate  change  poses  a  worrying  challenge  for  ci2es.  50%  of  ci2es  are  dealing   with  its  effects,  and  nearly  all  are  at  risk.  Over  90%  of  all  urban  areas  are   coastal,  pukng  most  major  ci2es  on  the  planet  at  risk  of  flooding.    
  • 26. Future  Agenda   84  Brook  Street   London   W1K  5EH   +44  203  0088  141   futureagenda.org   The  world’s  leading  open  foresight  program   What  do  you  think?   Join  In  |  Add  your  views  into  the  mix     www.futureagenda.org