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A SIMPLE STOCK IDEA

Don Fitzgerald, CFA
Fund Manager, Tocqueville Value Europe
dfitzgerald@tocquevillefinance.fr
                                         9th Value Investing Seminar
                                               Trani, Italy - July 2012
MY STOCK IDEA:


   High Returns (Capital / Margins)
   Sustainable Returns
   Growing Business - EPS growth 15% p.a. since 1994
   Solid Management
   Soft Cyclical


                   Highly Liquid Large Cap
                   ………….trades at 7x EBIT

                                                       2
MY STOCK IDEA IS




                   3
MY STOCK IDEA IS:




                    4
MY STOCK IDEA:
World’s 3rd Largest Advertising Agency Group




               Listed: Paris
               Market Cap: EUR 7 billion
               ISIN: FR0000130577
               Free Float: 90% - Daily Volume EUR 30m   5
MY OWN ADVERTISING




 Ranked 10th/108 in category since inception
       (from 31/03/00 to 30/06/2012)

            Source: Europerformance



                                               6
PUBLICIS BUSINESS OVERVIEW




 Source: Publicis data       7
PUBLICIS BUSINESS OVERVIEW




 Source: Publicis data       8
PUBLICIS BUSINESS OVERVIEW
                         EBIT BY REGION ( FY 2011)

                         18%


                                        56%
          26%



                                                     North America
                                                     Europe
                                                     Rest of the world


 Source: Publicis Data
                                                                     9
PUBLICIS BUSINESS OVERVIEW




 Source: Publicis data       10
PUBLICIS BUSINESS OVERVIEW




 Source: EXANE BNP Paribas
                             11
DIGITAL OPPORTUNITY


 Fastest growing media segment (market growth + 10%)

 Share of Client Spend accruing to Agency rises

 Margins Similar to Group Levels

 Publicis Early Mover




                                                       12
DIGITAL NOT THREAT


      Dis-intermediation Limited Risk

          • Fragmentation and Complexity of Multimedia World

          • Advertisers want Choice

          • IQ + TQ + EQ1 = Success




 1   I = Intelligence, Insight; T = Technology; E = Emotion    13
HIGH RETURNS - CAPITAL
     Pre-Tax ROCE (%)
17
16
15
14
13
12
11
10
 9
 8
     2002


                  2003


                              2004


                                     2005


                                            2006


                                                   2007


                                                          2008


                                                                 2009


                                                                        2010


                                                                               2011


                                                                                      2012
        Cash conversion > 100% - capex light / negative operating
 working capital
     Source: Tocqueville Research
                                                                                             14
HIGH RETURNS - BEST IN CLASS MARGINS
       EBIT MARGIN (%)
17

15

13

11

9                                                                                                          PUBLICIS
7
                                                                                                           Average
5                                                                                                          Competitor

3
     2000

               2001

                          2002

                                   2003

                                             2004

                                                      2005

                                                                2006

                                                                          2007

                                                                                   2008

                                                                                          2009

                                                                                                 2010

                                                                                                        2011
       * WPP plc, Omnicom Group, Interpublic Group, Havas SA and Aegis Group plc
       Source: Bloomberg data                                                                                  15
HIGH RETURNS SUSTAINABLE


 Need Scale, Global Reach, Client-dedicated Resources

 Oligopoly – 4 Global Agency Groups – No New Global
 Network for last 20 years

 No Long-term contracts but 90% retention rate




                                                        16
HIGH RETURNS - COMPETITIVE EDGE


 Well Positioned in Digital

 Balance of Creativity and Analytics

 Strong at Integrating and Retaining Talent

 Balanced Global Exposure




                                              17
GROWS PROFITS – TRACK RECORD
      EPS (EUR)
3,5


3,0


2,5


2,0


1,5


1,0
         2001

                    2002

                               2003

                                          2004

                                                 2005

                                                        2006

                                                               2007

                                                                      2008

                                                                             2009

                                                                                    2010

                                                                                           2011

                                                                                                  2012
       Source: Company, Tocqueville Research
                                                                                                         18
GROWS PROFITS – SOME TOP-LINE GROWTH
     ORGANIC SALES GROWTH (%)
10
 8
 6
 4
 2
 0
-2
-4
-6
-8
     2001


                2002


                            2003


                                    2004


                                           2005


                                                  2006


                                                         2007


                                                                2008


                                                                       2009


                                                                              2010


                                                                                     2011


                                                                                             2012
            Consistently outperforms competitors on organic growth
            Top-line growth driven by digital (30% of revenue) and emerging
            markets (20% of revenue)
     Source: Tocqueville Research
                                                                                            19
GROWS PROFITS – MARGIN PROGRESS
      EBITA MARGIN                                                                                Medium
18%                                                                                               term
17%                                                                                               target 18%

16%

15%
                                                                    Upward Trend
14%

13%

12%
      2001



                 2002



                            2003



                                        2004



                                               2005



                                                      2006



                                                             2007



                                                                      2008



                                                                             2009



                                                                                    2010



                                                                                           2011



                                                                                                  2012
             Structurally Margin Improvement driven by
             • Scaling of Digital
             • Streamlining / Off-Shoring
         Source: Tocqueville Research
                                                                                                         20
SOLID MANAGEMENT


  Genuine Culture Commitment to Digital & Globalization

  CEO Levy – IT Background

  Key Person Risk

  Leveraging Global Clients with Acquisitions

  Post Investment Cycle more Shareholder Returns (net debt /
ebitda – 0.5x)



                                                          21
SOFT CYCLICAL

 Topline

 • 60% of Sales from Defensive Sectors

 Costs

 • Staff Turnover 20%

 • Discretionary Costs (incentives, freelancers) 7% Revenues



     Margins Stable through the Cycle 15% - 17% EBIT

                                                       22
VALUATION


 No Asset Backing



 7x 2012 EBIT




                    23
CONCLUSION – MY STOCK IDEA…


   High & Sustainable Returns
   Well Positioned to Grow
   Well Managed
   Mild Cyclical Exposure
   Modest Valuation


                        …IS A GOOD IDEA


                                          24
ENJOY YOUR TIME IN TRANI




                           25
DISCLAIMER
• This document is strictly confidential and for the use of intended recipients only. It may not be reproduced,
communicated or published in its entirety or in part, without the prior written authorisation of Tocqueville
Finance S.A.

• This commercial document should not be interpreted as a contractual or pre-contractual commitment on the
part of Tocqueville Finance S.A. It is produced purely for illustrative purposes and may be amended at any time
without previous notice.

• The information/analyses contained in this document, particularly figures, have come partly from external
sources considered to be trustworthy. However, Tocqueville Finance SA cannot guarantee that the
information/analyses are complete, accurate and up-to-date.

• Tocqueville Finance S.A. draws investors’ attention to the fact that past performances are presented on the
basis of figures relating to previous years and are not an indication of future performance.

• Moreover, Tocqueville Finance S.A. in no way guarantees the current or future performances of funds cited in
this document

• Investors are reminded that any financial investment includes risks (market risks, capital risk, foreign
exchange risk) that may result in financial losses. Therefore, Tocqueville Finance S.A. recommends that prior to
any investment, the recipient of this document carefully reads the prospectuses of the cited funds which are
available free of charge at its head office located 8 rue Lamennais, Paris 75008 or on its website
www.tocquevillefinance.fr and ensures that they have the experience and knowledge needed to make an
investment decision, particularly with regard to the legal and tax implications.




                                                                                                                  26

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Publicis Investment

  • 1. A SIMPLE STOCK IDEA Don Fitzgerald, CFA Fund Manager, Tocqueville Value Europe dfitzgerald@tocquevillefinance.fr 9th Value Investing Seminar Trani, Italy - July 2012
  • 2. MY STOCK IDEA: High Returns (Capital / Margins) Sustainable Returns Growing Business - EPS growth 15% p.a. since 1994 Solid Management Soft Cyclical Highly Liquid Large Cap ………….trades at 7x EBIT 2
  • 5. MY STOCK IDEA: World’s 3rd Largest Advertising Agency Group Listed: Paris Market Cap: EUR 7 billion ISIN: FR0000130577 Free Float: 90% - Daily Volume EUR 30m 5
  • 6. MY OWN ADVERTISING Ranked 10th/108 in category since inception (from 31/03/00 to 30/06/2012) Source: Europerformance 6
  • 7. PUBLICIS BUSINESS OVERVIEW Source: Publicis data 7
  • 8. PUBLICIS BUSINESS OVERVIEW Source: Publicis data 8
  • 9. PUBLICIS BUSINESS OVERVIEW EBIT BY REGION ( FY 2011) 18% 56% 26% North America Europe Rest of the world Source: Publicis Data 9
  • 10. PUBLICIS BUSINESS OVERVIEW Source: Publicis data 10
  • 11. PUBLICIS BUSINESS OVERVIEW Source: EXANE BNP Paribas 11
  • 12. DIGITAL OPPORTUNITY Fastest growing media segment (market growth + 10%) Share of Client Spend accruing to Agency rises Margins Similar to Group Levels Publicis Early Mover 12
  • 13. DIGITAL NOT THREAT Dis-intermediation Limited Risk • Fragmentation and Complexity of Multimedia World • Advertisers want Choice • IQ + TQ + EQ1 = Success 1 I = Intelligence, Insight; T = Technology; E = Emotion 13
  • 14. HIGH RETURNS - CAPITAL Pre-Tax ROCE (%) 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Cash conversion > 100% - capex light / negative operating working capital Source: Tocqueville Research 14
  • 15. HIGH RETURNS - BEST IN CLASS MARGINS EBIT MARGIN (%) 17 15 13 11 9 PUBLICIS 7 Average 5 Competitor 3 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 * WPP plc, Omnicom Group, Interpublic Group, Havas SA and Aegis Group plc Source: Bloomberg data 15
  • 16. HIGH RETURNS SUSTAINABLE Need Scale, Global Reach, Client-dedicated Resources Oligopoly – 4 Global Agency Groups – No New Global Network for last 20 years No Long-term contracts but 90% retention rate 16
  • 17. HIGH RETURNS - COMPETITIVE EDGE Well Positioned in Digital Balance of Creativity and Analytics Strong at Integrating and Retaining Talent Balanced Global Exposure 17
  • 18. GROWS PROFITS – TRACK RECORD EPS (EUR) 3,5 3,0 2,5 2,0 1,5 1,0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: Company, Tocqueville Research 18
  • 19. GROWS PROFITS – SOME TOP-LINE GROWTH ORGANIC SALES GROWTH (%) 10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Consistently outperforms competitors on organic growth Top-line growth driven by digital (30% of revenue) and emerging markets (20% of revenue) Source: Tocqueville Research 19
  • 20. GROWS PROFITS – MARGIN PROGRESS EBITA MARGIN Medium 18% term 17% target 18% 16% 15% Upward Trend 14% 13% 12% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Structurally Margin Improvement driven by • Scaling of Digital • Streamlining / Off-Shoring Source: Tocqueville Research 20
  • 21. SOLID MANAGEMENT Genuine Culture Commitment to Digital & Globalization CEO Levy – IT Background Key Person Risk Leveraging Global Clients with Acquisitions Post Investment Cycle more Shareholder Returns (net debt / ebitda – 0.5x) 21
  • 22. SOFT CYCLICAL Topline • 60% of Sales from Defensive Sectors Costs • Staff Turnover 20% • Discretionary Costs (incentives, freelancers) 7% Revenues Margins Stable through the Cycle 15% - 17% EBIT 22
  • 23. VALUATION No Asset Backing 7x 2012 EBIT 23
  • 24. CONCLUSION – MY STOCK IDEA… High & Sustainable Returns Well Positioned to Grow Well Managed Mild Cyclical Exposure Modest Valuation …IS A GOOD IDEA 24
  • 25. ENJOY YOUR TIME IN TRANI 25
  • 26. DISCLAIMER • This document is strictly confidential and for the use of intended recipients only. It may not be reproduced, communicated or published in its entirety or in part, without the prior written authorisation of Tocqueville Finance S.A. • This commercial document should not be interpreted as a contractual or pre-contractual commitment on the part of Tocqueville Finance S.A. It is produced purely for illustrative purposes and may be amended at any time without previous notice. • The information/analyses contained in this document, particularly figures, have come partly from external sources considered to be trustworthy. However, Tocqueville Finance SA cannot guarantee that the information/analyses are complete, accurate and up-to-date. • Tocqueville Finance S.A. draws investors’ attention to the fact that past performances are presented on the basis of figures relating to previous years and are not an indication of future performance. • Moreover, Tocqueville Finance S.A. in no way guarantees the current or future performances of funds cited in this document • Investors are reminded that any financial investment includes risks (market risks, capital risk, foreign exchange risk) that may result in financial losses. Therefore, Tocqueville Finance S.A. recommends that prior to any investment, the recipient of this document carefully reads the prospectuses of the cited funds which are available free of charge at its head office located 8 rue Lamennais, Paris 75008 or on its website www.tocquevillefinance.fr and ensures that they have the experience and knowledge needed to make an investment decision, particularly with regard to the legal and tax implications. 26