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2. GBP/USD 1.5807
GBP/EUR 1.1890
EUR/USD 1.3287
GBPAUD 1.7080
GBP/CAD 1.6344
GBP/CHF 1.4713
GBP/CZK 30.633
GBP/DKK 8.865
GBP/HKD 12.253
GBP/INR 100.22
GBP/JPY 157.44
GBP/NOK 9.340
GBP/NZD 1.945
GBP/PLN 5.006
GBP/SEK 10.330
GBP/SGD 2.007
GBP/THB 50.33
GBP/TRY 3.205
GBP/ZAR 15.731
GBP/CNY 9.723
Euro Lifted by Best ZEW Surveys since 2009;
Pound Struggles after CPI
Forex: Pound, Euro Unlikely To See Strong
Response To CPI And ZEW Data
ASIA/EUROPE FOREX NEWS WRAP
The US Dollar is broadly lower following a weak start to the trading week
yesterday, but price action has started to shift from favoring the New Zealand
Dollar over its Australian counterpart and the Euro over the British Pound. As
the trading day has marched forward, there’s been an increased interest
surrounding the Euro as regional bond yields have crept higher.
Typically when European bond yields have moved up (particularly in Italy and
Spain), the Euro has suffered. Today, however, yields are not increasing
because investors are selling on fear; rather, improving economic growth
prospects have reduced the demand for fixed income and boosted demand
for riskier assets like stocks (the German DAX is holding near its all-time high
set yesterday at 8626.11).
Indeed, signs of a stronger Euro-Zone are emerging, with the ZEW Surveys
surging to their best outputs in four years. Here are the figures stoking Euro
strength:
-Euro-Zone ZEW Survey: Expectations (SEP): 58.6 from 44.0
- German ZEW Survey: Current Situation (SEP): 30.6 versus 20.0 expected,
from 18.3
- German ZEW Survey: Expectations (SEP): 49.6 versus 45.0 expected, from
42.0
Meanwhile, the British Pound is seeing a bout of weakness following the soft
CPI report. The report underscores shifting consumer expectations as the Bank
of England attempts to keep interest rates pointed lower. Accordingly, if data
today proliferates and becomes a trend, there is scope for a short-term,
fundamentally based reversal in the EURGBP.
TRADING TIPS
BUY EURUSD ABOVE 1.3380 TGT
1.3400/1.3420 SL 1.3350
BUY USDJPY ABOVE 99.40TGT 99.60/99.80
SL 99.10
BUY GBPUSD ABOVE 1.5930 TGT
1.5950/1.5970 SL 1.5900
HEADLINES
7. HOURLY USD INDEX CHART
ANALYSIS
USD INDEX LOOKS DOWNWARD
TREND: BEARISH
STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE
MACD =>.0001(BEARISH SIGNAL)
RSI =>41(BEARISH SIGNAL)
8. Date Time Currency Event Importance Actual Forecast Previous Notes
Sun
Sep 15
21:45
REINZ House Price
Index (MoM) (AUG)
Low 2.1% -0.5%
21:45
REINZ House Sales
(YoY) (AUG)
Low 8.5% 14.7%
21:45
REINZ Housing Price
Index (AUG)
Low 3746.6 3669.1
22:00
NZD Westpac NZ
Consumer Confidence
(3Q)
Medium 115.4 116.6
22:30
NZD Performance
Services Index (AUG)
Medium 53.2 58.2
23:01
GBP Rightmove
House Prices (MoM)
(SEP)
Low -1.5% -1.8%
23:01
GBP Rightmove
House Prices (YoY)
(SEP)
Low 4.5% 5.5%
Mon
Sep 16
Troika Officials Start
8th and 9th Review of
Portugal's Aid Plan
Low
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone
Consumer Price Index
- Core (YoY) (AUG F)
High 1.1% 1.1% 1.1%
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone
Consumer Price Index
(YoY) (AUG F)
High 1.3% 1.3% 1.3%
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone
Consumer Price Index
(MoM) (AUG)
Medium 0.1% 0.1% -0.5%
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone Labor
Costs (YoY) (2Q)
Low 0.9% 1.7%
12:30
CAD International
Securities
Transactions
(Canadian dollar)
(JUL)
Low 6.09B 8.00B -15.43B
12:30
USD Empire
Manufacturing (SEP)
Low 6.29 9.1 8.24
13:00
CAD Existing Home
Sales (MoM) (AUG)
Low 2.8% 0.2%
13:15
USD Industrial
Production (AUG)
Medium 0.4% 0.5% 0.0%
ECONOMIC CALLENDER
9. 13:15
USD Manufacturing
(SIC) Production
(AUG)
Medium 0.7% 0.5% -0.4%
13:15
USD Capacity
Utilization (AUG)
Low 77.8% 77.9% 77.6%
21:00
USD EIA Gasoline and
Diesel Fuel Update
Low
Tue
Sep 17
01:30
AUD RBA Policy
Meeting - September
Minutes
Medium
01:30
AUD New Motor
Vehicle Sales (MoM)
(AUG)
Low 0.8% -3.6%
01:30
AUD New Motor
Vehicle Sales (YoY)
(AUG)
Low 0.2% 3.0%
02:00
CNY Foreign Direct
Investment (YoY)
(AUG)
Medium 0.6% 12.5% 24.1%
02:00
CNY Conference
Board China August
Leading Economic
Index
Low 269.3 267.4
04:00
JPY Tokyo
Condominium Sales
(YoY) (AUG)
Low 53.3% 31.6%
06:00
EUR EU 27 New Car
Registrations (AUG)
Low -5.0% 5.0%
08:00
EUR Euro-Zone
Current Account
n.s.a. (euros) (JUL)
Low 26.6B 27.8B
08:00
EUR Euro-Zone
Current Account s.a.
(euros) (JUL)
Low 16.9B 19.8B
08:30
LIVE
GBP Consumer Price
Index (YoY) (AUG)
High 2.7% 2.7% 2.8%
08:30
LIVE
GBP Core Consumer
Price Index (YoY)
(AUG)
High 2.0% 2.1% 2.0%
08:30
LIVE
GBP Consumer Price
Index (MoM) (AUG)
Medium 0.4% 0.5% 0.0%
08:30
GBP Producer Price
Index Output Core
n.s.a. (YoY) (AUG)
Medium 1.0% 1.1% 1.1%
08:30
GBP Producer Price
Index Output n.s.a.
(YoY) (AUG)
Medium 1.6% 1.8% 2.1%
08:30
GBP ONS House
Prices (YoY) (JUL)
Low 3.3% 3.4% 3.1%
08:30
GBP Producer Price
Index Input n.s.a.
(MoM) (AUG)
Low -0.2% 0.2% 1.2%
08:30
GBP Producer Price
Index Input n.s.a.
(YoY) (AUG)
Low 2.8% 3.0% 5.1%
08:30
GBP Producer Price
Index Output Core
n.s.a. (MoM) (AUG)
Low 0.0% 0.1% 0.1%
08:30
GBP Producer Price
Index Output n.s.a.
(MoM) (AUG)
Low 0.1% 0.2% 0.2%
08:30
GBP Retail Price
Index (AUG)
Low 251.0 250.8 249.7
08:30
GBP Retail Price
Index Ex Mort
Int.Payments (YoY)
(AUG)
Low 3.3% 3.20% 3.2%
10. 08:30
GBP Retail Price
Index (MoM) (AUG)
Low 0.5% 0.40% 0.0%
08:30
GBP Retail Price
Index (YoY) (AUG)
Low 3.3% 3.20% 3.1%
09:00
EUR German ZEW
Survey (Economic
Sentiment) (SEP)
High 49.6 45.0 42
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone ZEW
Survey (Economic
Sentiment) (SEP)
Medium 58.6 44
09:00
EUR German ZEW
Survey (Current
Situation) (SEP)
Medium 30.6 20.0 18.3
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone Trade
Balance (euros) (JUL)
Low 18.2B 16.5B
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone Trade
Balance s.a. (euros)
(JUL)
Low 11.1B 15.0B 13.5B
12:30
LIVE
USD Consumer Price
Index Ex Food &
Energy (YoY) (AUG)
High 1.8% 1.7%
12:30
LIVE
USD Consumer Price
Index (YoY) (AUG)
High 1.6% 2.0%
12:30
LIVE
USD Consumer Price
Index Ex Food &
Energy (MoM) (AUG)
Medium 0.2% 0.2%
12:30
LIVE
USD Consumer Price
Index (MoM) (AUG)
Medium 0.2% 0.2%
12:30
CAD Manufacturing
Shipments (MoM)
(JUL)
Low 0.5% -0.5%
12:30
USD Consumer Price
Index Core Index s.a.
(AUG)
Low 234.341 234.004
12:30
USD Consumer Price
Index n.s.a. (AUG)
Low 233.963 233.596
13:00
USD Net Long-term
TIC Flows (JUL)
Medium -$15.0B -$66.9B
13:00
USD Total Net TIC
Flows (JUL)
Low -$19.0B
14:00
USD NAHB Housing
Market Index (SEP)
Medium 58 59
22:45
NZD Current Account
Balance (2Q)
Low -1.9B -0.663B
22:45
NZD Current Account
Deficit-GDP Ratio (2Q)
Low -4.8% -4.8%
Wed
Sep 18
USD Federal Reserve
FOMC Two-day
Meeting Begins
High
00:00
AUD Conference
Board Leading Index
(JUL)
Medium -0.2%
00:30
AUD Westpac Leading
Index (MoM) (JUL)
Medium 0.0%
01:30
CNY China August
Property Prices
Low
08:30
GBP Bank of England
Minutes
Medium
11. 09:00
CHF ZEW Survey
(Expectations) (SEP)
Medium 7.2
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone
Construction Output
s.a. (MoM) (JUL)
Low 0.7%
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone
Construction Output
w.d.a. (YoY) (JUL)
Low -3.0%
11:00
USD MBA Mortgage
Applications (SEP 13)
Low -13.5%
12:30
USD Building Permits
(MoM) (AUG)
Medium -0.4% 2.7%
12:30
USD Housing Starts
(MoM) (AUG)
Medium 3.0% 5.9%
12:30
USD Building Permits
(AUG)
Low 950K 943K
12:30
USD Housing Starts
(AUG)
Low 923K 896K
14:30
USD DOE Cushing OK
Crude Inventory (SEP
13)
Low -639K
14:30
USD DOE U.S. Crude
Oil Inventories (SEP
13)
Low -219K
14:30
USD DOE U.S.
Distillate Inventory
(SEP 13)
Low 2586K
14:30
USD DOE U.S.
Gasoline Inventories
(SEP 13)
Low 1658K
18:00
LIVE
USD Fed Pace of MBS
Purchase Program
(SEP)
High $40B $40B
18:00
LIVE
USD Fed Pace of
Treasury Purchase
Program (SEP)
High $35B $45B
18:00
LIVE
USD Fed Releases
Summary of
Economic Projections
High
18:00
LIVE
USD Federal Open
Market Committee
Rate Decision (SEP
18)
High 0.25% 0.3%
18:30
LIVE
USD Fed's Bernanke
Holds Press
Conference in
Washington
High
22:45
NZD Gross Domestic
Product (YoY) (2Q)
High 2.3% 2.4%
22:45
NZD Gross Domestic
Product (QoQ) (2Q)
Medium 0.2% 0.3%
23:50
JPY Merchandise
Trade Balance Total
(Yen) (AUG)
Medium -¥1113.8B -¥1024.0B
23:50
JPY Adjusted
Merchandise Trade
Balance (Yen) (AUG)
Low -¥824.5B -¥944.0B
23:50
JPY Merchandise
Trade Exports (YoY)
(AUG)
Low 14.8 12.2
23:50
JPY Merchandise
Trade Imports (YoY)
(AUG)
Low 18.7 19.6
Thu
Sep 19
JPY Bank of Japan
Governor Kuroda
Speaks in Tokyo
Medium
12. JPY Bank of Japan
Policy Board Member
Kiuchi Speaks
Low
01:30
AUD RBA FX
Transactions
Government (AUG)
Low -509M
01:30
AUD RBA FX
Transactions Other
(AUG)
Low 26M
01:30
AUD RBA Foreign
Exchange Transaction
(Australian dollar)
(AUG)
Low 436M
01:30
JPY BOJ Board
Member Kiuchi
Speech & Press
Conference
Low
04:30
JPY All Industry
Activity Index (MoM)
(JUL)
Medium 0.3% -0.6%
05:00
JPY Coincident Index
(JUL F)
Medium 106.4
05:00
JPY Leading Index
(JUL F)
Medium 107.8
05:45
CHF SECO September
2013 Economic
Forecasts
Medium
06:00
CHF Trade Balance
(Swiss franc) (AUG)
Medium 2.38B
06:00
CHF Exports (MoM)
(AUG)
Low -1.9%
06:00
CHF Imports (MoM)
(AUG)
Low 3.2%
07:30
LIVE
CHF Swiss National
Bank Rate Decision
(SEP 19)
High 0.0% 0.0%
08:30
GBP Retail Sales Incl.
Auto (YoY) (AUG)
Medium 3.3% 3.0%
08:30
GBP Retail Sales
(YoY) (AUG)
Medium 3.2% 3.1%
08:30
GBP Retail Sales Incl.
Auto (MoM) (AUG)
Low 0.4% 1.1%
08:30
GBP Retail Sales
(MoM) (AUG)
Low 0.0% 1.1%
10:00
GBP CBI Trends
Selling Prices (SEP)
Low 2 0
10:00
GBP CBI Trends Total
Orders (SEP)
Low 2 0
12:30
USD Initial Jobless
Claims (SEP 13)
Medium 330K 292K
12:30
CAD Wholesale Sales
(MoM) (JUL)
Low 1.50% -2.8%
12:30
USD Continuing
Claims (SEP 6)
Low 2871K
12:30
LIVE
USD Current Account
Balance (2Q)
Low -$96.3B -$106.1B
14:00
USD Existing Home
Sales (MoM) (AUG)
Medium -2.6% 6.5%
13. 14:00
USD Leading
Indicators (AUG)
Medium 0.6% 0.6%
14:00
USD Philadelphia Fed.
(SEP)
Medium 10 9.3
14:00
USD API Monthly
Statistical Report
Low
14:00
USD Existing Home
Sales (AUG)
Low 5.25M 5.39M
14:30
USD EIA Natural Gas
Storage Change (SEP
13)
Low 65
22:00
NZD ANZ Job
Advertisements
(MoM) (AUG)
Low 3.5%
22:45
NZD Net Migration s.a.
(AUG)
Low 1980
23:50
JPY Japan Buying
Foreign Bonds (Yen)
(SEP 13)
Medium -¥66.5B
23:50
JPY Japan Buying
Foreign Stocks (Yen)
(SEP 13)
Medium ¥38.1B
23:50
JPY Foreign Buying
Japan Bonds (Yen)
(SEP 13)
Low -¥197.3B
23:50
JPY Foreign Buying
Japan Stocks (Yen)
(SEP 13)
Low ¥185.4B
Fri
Sep 20
JPY Bank of Japan
Governor Kuroda
Speaks at Kisaragi-kai
Meeting
Low
03:00
NZD Credit Card
Spending (YoY) (AUG)
Medium 4.7%
03:00
NZD Credit Card
Spending (MoM)
(AUG)
Low -0.3%
05:30
JPY Nationwide
Department Store
Sales (YoY) (AUG)
Low -2.5%
05:30
JPY Tokyo
Department Store
Sales (YoY) (AUG)
Low -1.0%
07:00
JPY Convenience
Store Sales (YoY)
(AUG)
Low -0.8%
08:30
GBP Public Finances
(PSNCR) (Pounds)
(AUG)
Medium -19.6B
08:30
GBP PSNB ex
Interventions (AUG)
Low 13.3B 0.1B
08:30
GBP PSNB ex Royal
Mail, APF (AUG)
Low 13.3B 0.5B
08:30
GBP Public Sector
Net Borrowing
(Pounds) (AUG)
Low 11.9B -1.6B
12:30
CAD Bank Canada
Consumer Price Index
Core (YoY) (AUG)
Medium 1.2% 1.4%
12:30
CAD Consumer Price
Index (YoY) (AUG)
Medium 1.1% 1.3%
12:30
CAD Bank Canada
Consumer Price Index
Core (MoM) (AUG)
Low 0.1% 0.0%
14. 12:30
CAD CPI Core SA
(MoM) (AUG)
Low 0.1%
12:30
CAD CPI SA (MoM)
(AUG)
Low 0.2%
12:30
CAD Consumer Price
Index (AUG)
Low 123.1
12:30
CAD Consumer Price
Index (MoM) (AUG)
Low 0.1% 0.1%
14:00
EUR Euro-Zone
Consumer Confidence
(SEP A)
Medium -14.5% -15.6
16:30
USD Fed's George
Speaks on the
Economy in New York
Low
16:55
USD Fed's Bullard
Speaks on Economy
and Monetary Policy
in NY
Low
17:45
USD Fed's
Kocherlakota Speaks
in New York
Low
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