Konstantin Simonov’s speech presentation for The Roundtable "The Role of Azerbaijan in the European Energy Security Strategy".
Paris, France, April 13, 2012.
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The role of azerbaijan and russia in the european energy security strategy
1. National Energy Security Fund
The Role of A zerbaijan
and Russia in the
European Energy
Securit y Strategy
Konstantin Simonov
Paris
April 13
2012
2. Expectations and Reality
• It is out of question that Azeri gas
will come to European market
• But it will be not a driver of serious
changes in EU
• Extremely high expectations:
Europeans consider that South
Corridor is the solution to all
problems of EU on gas market
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3. Small Amount
16 bcm – 6 bcm for Turkey = just 10 bcm
According to IEA consumption in OECD-Europe in 2020 can be
more than 600 bcm
Share of Azeri Gas in European consumption
(OECD-Europe, 2020)
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4. Difficult co compete
with Russia
Gazprom Supplies to Europe, Turkey,
Billion Cubic Metres
165
158,8
160
155
150,5 150
150
145
140,6
138,6
140
135
130
125
2007y 2008 y 2009 y 2010y 2011y
Source: Gazprom
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5. Difficult co compete
with Russia
Consumption of Russian gas in France (bcm)
12
10,4 10,1
9,8 9,8 9,5
10
8
6
4
2
0
2007y 2008y 2009y 2010y 2011y
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6. Shakh Deniz Cup
Serious battle for very small
amount of gas
TAP
TAP
ITGI
10 bcm!!!
Nabucco
SEEP
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7. It is profitable to have
Gasprom an a neighbour
Estimate Price for European Consumers
450 397 415
380 373
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
Price for European Price for European Price for European Average price for
consumers for Azeri consumers for Azeri consumers for Azeri Russian gas (nine
gas transporting gas transporting gas transporting months ended
through Nabucco through ITGI through TAP September 30, 2011)
Source: RWE, Gazprom, NESF
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8. South Corridor vs.
South Corridor
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Source: Gazprom
9. The Question of Price
• Assets in Europe – the future
of DEPA and DESFA (Socar is
one of pretenders)
• Solution of political problems
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10. Сonsequences of Possible
War in Iran
Ethnic structure of Iran Population
(million people)
13
Persians
5
Azerbaijanians
Kurds
45 Others
12
Source: The University of Texas
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11. Сonsequences of Possible
War in Iran
Shares in Shakh Deniz Field
9,0%
10,0% 25,5%
BP (operator)
Statoil
Total
10,0%
NICO
Lukoil
SOCAR
10,0%
TPAO
25,5%
10,0%
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12. Azerbaijan as a
Transit Country?
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13. Looking for Reliable Route
Azerbaijan +
Georgia +
Russia +
Turkey
Ukraine
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14. Memo to the Supporters
of Free Competition
• In the chain of gas supplies to GDF Suez of France Gazprom
got rid of the intermediary Fragaz as far back as several
years ago. In 2006, however, as it renewed the gas supply
contract with Gaz de France (12 billion cubic metres a year)
and signed a new contract to supply gas by the new gas
pipeline, Nord Stream (2.5 billion cubic metres), the Russian
corporation reached agreement to move the gas delivery
point to the border of France and got the right to sell 1.5
billion cubic metres of gas annually in the French market on
its own. A company called Gazprom Marketing & Trading
France was established for that purpose
• It should be noted that only an insignificant portion of the
140-150 billion cubic metres of Gazprom’s annual export to
European countries and Turkey is sold by the group to end-
users
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15. Thank you!
www.energystate.ru
National Energy Security Fund
