Nabucco- ITGI - TAP: <br />Competing Projects or Partner Pipelines?<br />Anthony Livanios<br />CEO<br />Energy Stream CMG ...
EU Diversification Policy & Security of Gas supply<br />A key aim of the European Union (EU) in the next few years is to e...
EU Gas Demand: by 2030: 771 bcm
Current EU imports: 60%  - by 2030: 85%
40% of EU gas imports: Russia
Diversification of routes
Diversification of gas sources
Integrated EU gas market</li></ul>Energy Stream CMG<br />OIL & GAS STRATEGIES<br />
EU Southern Gas Corridor Nabucco - ITGI - TAP<br />Pipelines under design<br /><ul><li>Nabucco: Turkey  (Erzurum) – Austri...
The Main Questions<br />The current competition among the three pipeline consortia -Nabucco, ITGI, TAP- is not a competiti...
Azerbaijan: A Key Player<br />	Azerbaijan occupies a place of special importance for the Southern Corridor because the gia...
The Shah Deniz consortium is comprised of Britain’s BP, with 25.5%, Norway’s STATOIL, with 25.5%, Azerbaijan’s SOCAR, with...
Ajerbaijan’s significant geopolitical position
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Nabucco - ITGI - TAP: Competing Projects or Partner Pipelines?

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Anthony Livanios
CEO
Energy Stream CMG GmbH
Oil & Gas Strategies
www.energystreamcmg.com
energystreamblog.com

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Nabucco - ITGI - TAP: Competing Projects or Partner Pipelines?

  1. 1. Nabucco- ITGI - TAP: <br />Competing Projects or Partner Pipelines?<br />Anthony Livanios<br />CEO<br />Energy Stream CMG GmbH <br />Oil & Gas Strategies <br />Athens, Greece<br />30 May 2011 <br />
  2. 2. EU Diversification Policy & Security of Gas supply<br />A key aim of the European Union (EU) in the next few years is to ensure its natural gas supply originates from more countries via new pipelines. This is commonly referred to as a diversification policy of sources and transportation routes. <br /><ul><li>EU Gas consumption 2009: 484 bcm
  3. 3. EU Gas Demand: by 2030: 771 bcm
  4. 4. Current EU imports: 60% - by 2030: 85%
  5. 5. 40% of EU gas imports: Russia
  6. 6. Diversification of routes
  7. 7. Diversification of gas sources
  8. 8. Integrated EU gas market</li></ul>Energy Stream CMG<br />OIL & GAS STRATEGIES<br />
  9. 9. EU Southern Gas Corridor Nabucco - ITGI - TAP<br />Pipelines under design<br /><ul><li>Nabucco: Turkey (Erzurum) – Austria (Baumgarten)</li></ul>-- Capacity : 31 bcm/yr<br /><ul><li> ITGI: Interconnector: Turkey – Greece – Italy </li></ul> -- Capacity: 10 bcm/yr to the EU <br /><ul><li>TAP: Turkey – Greece – Albania – Italy:</li></ul> -- Capacity: 20 bcm/yr <br />No pipeline consortium has reached an FID as of today <br />Energy Stream CMG<br />OIL & GAS STRATEGIES<br />
  10. 10. The Main Questions<br />The current competition among the three pipeline consortia -Nabucco, ITGI, TAP- is not a competition among different gas pipelines. In reality, it is a competition between countries and corporations. <br />Does this competition in commercial and geopolitical interests benefit the energy security of the EU?<br />Could it be that Nabucco, ITGI and TAP have more common interests than differences?<br />Are they competing projects or partner pipelines?<br />What is the best energy policy for the Greek government vis-à-vis the Southern Corridor?<br />Energy Stream CMG<br />OIL & GAS STRATEGIES<br />
  11. 11. Azerbaijan: A Key Player<br /> Azerbaijan occupies a place of special importance for the Southern Corridor because the giant natural gas field of Shah Deniz, the largest in the whole of the Caspian Sea, lies within its territorial waters<br /><ul><li>Shah Deniz Phase II, will produce approximately 14bcm/yr for the next 25 years
  12. 12. The Shah Deniz consortium is comprised of Britain’s BP, with 25.5%, Norway’s STATOIL, with 25.5%, Azerbaijan’s SOCAR, with 10%, Turkey’s BOTAS, with 9% and others
  13. 13. Ajerbaijan’s significant geopolitical position
  14. 14. Ajerbaijan will develop into a gas transit country (quantities from Turkmenistan and Central Asian countries)</li></ul>Energy Stream CMG<br />OIL & GAS STRATEGIES<br />
  15. 15. The Ambitious Nabucco <br />Energy Stream CMG<br />OIL & GAS STRATEGIES<br />
  16. 16. The Ambitious Nabucco<br /><ul><li>Is the most ambitious
  17. 17. The most expensive
  18. 18. Largest pipeline that would transport gas to central Europe
  19. 19. Nabucco’s problem: gas from Azerbaijan is not sufficient
  20. 20. Turkmenistan is not a viable source – transportation by ship or, alternatively subsea, is not economically viable, due to geopolitical disputes with Russia
  21. 21. Iraq could not supply Nabucco with natural gas because it recently committed itself to satisfy its internal market </li></ul>Energy Stream CMG<br />OIL & GAS STRATEGIES<br />
  22. 22. The Advantages of ITGI<br />Energy Stream CMG<br />OIL & GAS STRATEGIES<br />
  23. 23. The Advantages of ITGI<br /><ul><li>ITGI has a different logic
  24. 24. ITGI has binding inter-governmental agreements
  25. 25. Is the most mature pipeline
  26. 26. ITGI opens up the EU’s Southern Corridor in the most economically effective way
  27. 27. Political leadership of Greece and Italy – strong efforts by DEPA and Edison</li></ul>Energy Stream CMG<br />OIL & GAS STRATEGIES<br />
  28. 28. TAP: Economically the most efficient<br />Energy Stream CMG<br />OIL & GAS STRATEGIES<br />
  29. 29. TAP: Economically the most efficient<br /><ul><li>The TAP consortium is comprised of Norway’s powerful STATOIL
  30. 30. STATOIL reinforces the credibility of TAP consortium
  31. 31. TAP is the shortest pipeline to Italy
  32. 32. It has the lowest cost
  33. 33. TAP is economically the most efficient
  34. 34. More political support is needed
  35. 35. We must leave open the possibility that it is the “outsider” that will finally win and sign the gas supply contract with Shah Deniz II</li></ul>Energy Stream CMG<br />OIL & GAS STRATEGIES<br />
  36. 36. Strategic Synergies?<br /><ul><li>For the EU the three pipelines are complementary
  37. 37. They are all officially supported by the European Commission
  38. 38. All together contribute to European energy security than each one of them separately
  39. 39. To begin with, one pipeline will be constructed
  40. 40. Some consortia may join forces
  41. 41. The Greek energy policy should seek to promote effectively both ITGI and TAP
  42. 42. The best energy policy for the Greek government is to support politically with equal weight both ITGI and TAP</li></ul>Energy Stream CMG<br />OIL & GAS STRATEGIES<br />
  43. 43. Anthony Livanios<br />CEO<br />Energy Stream CMG GmbH <br />Oil & Gas Strategies <br />www.energystreamcmg.com<br />energystreamblog.com<br />

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