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1. Admission in India 2014
By:
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2. Widening Participation in
Higher Education: Analysis
using Linked Admin Data
Institute of Education
Institute for Fiscal Studies
Centre for Economic Performance
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3. Research Team
Haroon Chowdry
Claire Crawford
Lorraine Dearden
Alissa Goodman
Anna Vignoles
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4. Background and Motivation
• Rapid expansion of HE in the UK
– 43% of 17-30 year olds participated in 2005-06
• But widening participation still cause for concern
– Socio-economic gap in HE participation appeared to
widen in mid to late 1990s
• Blanden & Machin (2004); Galindo-Rueda et al (2004);
Glennerster (2001); Machin & Vignoles (2004)
– Although may have narrowed somewhat since then
• Raffe et al. (2006)
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5. Background and Motivation
• Concerns increased following introduction
of tuition fees in 1998
– But did not deter low income students (who
were protected by increased loan availability)
(Dearden, Fitzsimons & Wyness, 2008)
• Recent policy developments may affect
future participation
– e.g. 2006-07 reforms (top-up fees)
– Will soon be evaluated using this data
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6. Research Questions
• How does the likelihood of HE
participation vary by socio-economic
background?
• How much of this gap can be explained
by prior achievement?
• How does the type of HE participation
vary across socio-economic groups?
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7. Methodology
• Linear probability regression model
– Easier to include school fixed effects
• Two models:
– HE participation (at age 19/20)
– HE participation in a “high status” institution
• Dependent variables are binary
– 1 if participates, 0 otherwise
1 2 3is i i i i sHE SEG X PA          
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8. New longitudinal admin data
• Linked individual-level administrative data
– School, FE and HE records
• Data on participants AND non-participants
• Consider two cohorts:
– In Year 11 in 2001-02 or 2002-03
– Potential age 18/19 HE entry in 2004-05 or
2005-06 (age 19/20 entry 2005-06/2006-07)
• State and private school students
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9. Data
• Socio-economic background
– State school analysis:
• Free school meals status from PLASC
• IMD quintiles based on home postcode (age 16)
– State and private school analysis:
• Assume FSM = 0 for all private school kids
• IMD quintiles based on school postcode (age 16)
– 47% of state school kids are in same quintile
using home or school postcode
• 81% are in same or adjacent quintile
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10. Data
• Gender, MOB and school ID available for all
– School fixed effects for state school analysis
– School type dummies when include private school kids
• Ethnicity, EAL, SEN from PLASC
– Missing for private school kids
• Neighbourhood measure of parental education
based on 2001 Census
– Based on home postcode for state school analysis
– Based on school postcode when include private school kids
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11. Data
• Prior attainment
– State school analysis:
• Quintiles (based on APS) at Key Stage 2, 3, 4 and 5 (plus
indicators of reaching expected level at Key Stage 4 and 5)
– Private school analysis:
• Key Stage 4 and 5 results only
• Exclusion of Key Stage 2 and 3 results makes
negligible difference
• Use of school rather than home postcode
reduces raw differences (but end result similar)
– Essentially eliminating within-school differences
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12. Male HE participation,
by deprivation quintile
0 10 20 30 40
% participating in HE at 19/20
State school pupils
0 10 20 30 40
% participating in HE at 19/20
State and private school pupils
Least deprived quintile 2nd quintile
3rd quintile 4th quintile
Most deprived quintile
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13. HE participation (state school males)
No
controls
Individual
and
school
controls
Plus
Key
Stage 2
results
Plus
Key
Stage 3
results
Plus
Key
Stage 4
results
Plus
Key
Stage 5
results
4th deprivation quintile 0.065**
[0.003]
0.048**
[0.002]
0.029**
[0.002]
0.017**
[0.001]
0.003*
[0.001]
0.000
[0.001]
3rd deprivation quintile 0.134**
[0.003]
0.085**
[0.002]
0.055**
[0.002]
0.035**
[0.002]
0.010**
[0.002]
0.001
[0.001]
2nd deprivation quintile 0.201**
[0.004]
0.118**
[0.002]
0.079**
[0.002]
0.052**
[0.002]
0.017**
[0.002]
0.001
[0.002]
Least deprived quintile 0.288**
[0.006]
0.160**
[0.003]
0.110**
[0.003]
0.076**
[0.002]
0.031**
[0.002]
0.007**
[0.002]
Observations 550,972
R-squared 0.053 0.128 0.253 0.333 0.436 0.584
F-test of extra controls 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
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14. HE participation (state and private school males)
No controls Individual
and school
controls
Plus Key
Stage 4
results
Plus Key
Stage 5
results
4th deprivation quintile 0.109**
[0.008]
0.098**
[0.006]
0.016**
[0.003]
0.004*
[0.002]
3rd deprivation quintile 0.130**
[0.008]
0.108**
[0.006]
0.015**
[0.003]
0.002
[0.002]
2nd deprivation quintile 0.173**
[0.008]
0.143**
[0.007]
0.019**
[0.003]
0.000
[0.002]
Least deprived quintile 0.223**
[0.008]
0.171**
[0.007]
0.026**
[0.004]
0.001
[0.002]
Observations 584,259
R-squared 0.028 0.114 0.416 0.596
F-test of extra controls 0.000 0.000 0.000
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15. Type of Participation
• Also consider type of HE participation, because:
– Students at less prestigious institutions more likely to
drop out and/or achieve lower degree classification
– Graduates from more prestigious institutions earn
higher returns in the labour market
• Define “high status” university as:
– Russell Group university (20 in total)
– Any UK university with an average 2001 RAE score
greater than lowest found amongst Russell Group
• Adds Bath, Durham, Lancaster, York, etc (21 in total)
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16. Female “high status” participation,
by deprivation quintile
0 10 20 30 40
% attending high status HEI at 19/20
State school pupils
0 10 20 30 40
% attending high status HEI at 19/20
State and private school pupils
Least deprived quintile 2nd quintile
3rd quintile 4th quintile
Most deprived quintile
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17. “High status” HE participation
(state school females)
No
controls
Individual
and
school
controls
Plus
Key
Stage 2
results
Plus
Key
Stage 3
results
Plus
Key
Stage 4
results
Plus
Key
Stage 5
results
4th deprivation quintile 0.049**
[0.005]
0.031**
[0.004]
0.019**
[0.004]
0.012**
[0.004]
0.007
[0.004]
0.004
[0.004]
3rd deprivation quintile 0.101**
[0.005]
0.048**
[0.004]
0.032**
[0.004]
0.021**
[0.004]
0.013**
[0.004]
0.009*
[0.004]
2nd deprivation quintile 0.148**
[0.005]
0.063**
[0.005]
0.043**
[0.005]
0.029**
[0.004]
0.018**
[0.004]
0.012**
[0.004]
Least deprived quintile 0.200**
[0.007]
0.076**
[0.005]
0.054**
[0.005]
0.038**
[0.005]
0.026**
[0.005]
0.017**
[0.004]
Observations 181,391
R-squared 0.021 0.041 0.124 0.171 0.217 0.314
F-test of extra controls 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
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18. “High status” HE participation
(state and private school females)
No controls Individual
and school
controls
Plus Key
Stage 4
results
Plus Key
Stage 5
results
4th deprivation quintile 0.087**
[0.012]
0.062**
[0.010]
0.018**
[0.006]
0.006
[0.005]
3rd deprivation quintile 0.120**
[0.012]
0.073**
[0.010]
0.022**
[0.006]
0.012*
[0.006]
2nd deprivation quintile 0.144**
[0.012]
0.073**
[0.009]
0.020**
[0.006]
0.008
[0.006]
Least deprived quintile 0.177**
[0.011]
0.097**
[0.010]
0.031**
[0.007]
0.019**
[0.006]
Observations 205,523
R-squared 0.013 0.075 0.231 0.343
F-test of extra controls 0.000 0.000 0.000
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19. Conclusions
• Widening participation in HE to students
from deprived backgrounds is largely about
tackling low prior achievement
• Focusing policy interventions post
compulsory schooling unlikely to eliminate
raw socio-economic gap in HE participation
– But does not absolve universities
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20. Limitations
• Young participants only
– But other work looks at mature students
• Limited information on private school students
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21. HE participation (state school males without
Key Stage 2 & Key Stage 3 results)
No controls Individual
and school
controls
Plus Key
Stage 4
results
Plus Key
Stage 5
results
4th deprivation quintile 0.065**
[0.003]
0.048**
[0.002]
0.003**
[0.001]
0.000
[0.001]
3rd deprivation quintile 0.134**
[0.003]
0.085**
[0.002]
0.010**
[0.002]
0.001
[0.001]
2nd deprivation quintile 0.201**
[0.004]
0.118**
[0.002]
0.018**
[0.002]
0.002
[0.002]
Least deprived quintile 0.288**
[0.006]
0.160**
[0.003]
0.032**
[0.002]
0.007**
[0.002]
Observations 550,972
R-squared 0.053 0.128 0.435 0.584
F-test of extra controls 0.000 0.000 0.000
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22. HE participation (state school males without
KS2 & KS3 and using school postcode)
No controls Individual
and school
controls
Plus Key
Stage 4
results
Plus Key
Stage 5
results
4th deprivation quintile 0.098**
[0.007]
0.100**
[0.006]
0.014**
[0.002]
0.004*
[0.002]
3rd deprivation quintile 0.122**
[0.007]
0.115**
[0.006]
0.015**
[0.002]
0.002
[0.002]
2nd deprivation quintile 0.165**
[0.008]
0.155**
[0.006]
0.018**
[0.003]
0.000
[0.002]
Least deprived quintile 0.213**
[0.008]
0.187**
[0.007]
0.027**
[0.003]
0.001
[0.002]
Observations 539,298
R-squared 0.026 0.095 0.430 0.582
F-test of extra controls 0.000 0.000 0.000
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