1. Dustin J. Knutson
LDSL718 Major Project II: Slidecast
Regent University
11-25-12
Copyright Futures of Faith, 2012.
2. Variables and Scenarios
Scenario Changes:
• Accelerate Freedom and Democracy
Multipliers
• Adjust SURVSE preference of 18-24 year old
age group from survival to self expression.
4. Pyramids of Change
“U.S. assistance to Egypt has long played a central role in Egypt’s economic
and military development, and in furthering the strategic partnership. With
Egypt embarking on a transition to democracy,
U.S. support can bolster Egypt’s nascent
democratic system and achieve inclusive
economic growth.
U.S. assistance supports Egyptian efforts to protect civil liberties and human
rights, introduce transparency and accountability in government, foster
economic growth and democratic institutions, and develop a robust,
independent civil society.” – The United States Department of State
(2012). United States Department of State. U.S. Relations With Egypt. Bureau of Near Eastern Affairs Fact Sheet. August 22, 2012.
http://www.state.gov/r/pa/ei/bgn/5309.htm.
5. References
(2012). International Futures: Exploring Alternative Global Possibilities. University of Denver. Denver,
CO. http://www.ifs.du.edu/.
(2012). Egypt: Business Forecast Report. Business Monitor International, 1-51.
(2012). United States Department of State. U.S. Relations With Egypt. Bureau of Near Eastern Affairs Fact Sheet.
August 22, 2012. http://www.state.gov/r/pa/ei/bgn/5309.htm.
Anderson, V., and Johnson, L. (1997). Systems Thinking Basics. Waltham MA: Pegasus.
Glenn, J. C., & Gordon, T. J. (2010). Futures Research Methodology--Version 3.0. Washington, DC: American
Council for the United Nations University. http:/www.millennium-
project.org/millennium/FRM-V3.html
Harf, J. E., & Lombardi, M. O. (2010). Taking sides: Clashing views on global issues (6th ed.). Dubuque, IA:
McGraw Hill Contemporary Learning Series.
Hughes, Barry and Evan Hillebrand. (2006). Exploring and Shaping International Futures. Boulder, CO:
Paradigm Press.
McLaren, Brian. D. (2007). Everything must change: Jesus, global crises, and a revolution of hope.
Nashville, TN: Thomas Nelson.
Editor's Notes
Today, data shows the social condition of the people around the world is improving and it is moving at a consistent pace but accelerating. Citizens around the world are becoming more involved in politics and collective social action more generally as represented by increasing levels of global democracy driven by increases in education, literacy, and freedom. This socio-political action is anticipated to help speed improvements in both economic and non-economic factors.Trends in democracy also appear to be spreading globally. Evidence of these trends comes from indicators that life conditions are improving, literacy is on the rise, GDP per capita is growing, and life expectancy is increasing. Measures of the physical quality of life demonstrate this trend in non-economic terms by combining and weighting such factors as the increasing literacy rate, decreasing infant mortality rate, and increasing life expectancy. This is all evidence in support of global improvement.This presentation integrates these global systematic trends and summarizes a report created for the Institute for Global Engagement that tests potential policy changes to attempt to improve the prosperity of Egypt by 2050. Amidst global trends, it asks what Egypt can do now to jump ahead of the curve and what other system impacts changes would have on Egypt and the Middle East.
To begin, the purpose of the study in similar terms was to provide new approaches and innovative forecasts for the future of Egypt’s economic prosperity as an issue of global interest through effective policy interventions, especially given recent protests at the US Embassy in Cairo and Egypt’s new democratic status. It was also to potentially inform and supplement current United States and Egyptian global intelligence efforts aimed at the use of strategic foresight as a tool for global economic visioning and peace. In order to achieve peace and prosperity in the Middle East, some believe the world must open its eyes to a new type of global, multi-generational, systems thinking while considering the drivers of change in the region. Under that line of thinking, the future of Egypt very quickly becomes a relevant question by socio-political leadership. Using the International Futures tool, developed at the University of Denver, this study examined the current state of Egypt and the current drivers of change to help decision-makers understand a causal model of how change with respect to selected variables might bring about a preferred future policy outcome of a more prosperous Egypt, represented in the model by GDP per capita. Compared against a base case scenario projected to 2050, three changes were made to test a plausible alternate future. Adjustments were made to freedom and democracy multipliers, shown in the system map, to accelerate their effects within the global system. In addition, a forecasted change from the baseline scenario was tested by asking the question: What if 18-24 year olds in Egypt preferred self-expression over survival today? By adjusting this social variable preference to one that is already actively allowed and promoted in more democratic and free environments, one can test the scenario where freedom and democracy are both preferred and incentivized in Egypt for its potential outcomes by 2050. The results of this test demonstrated a multi-generational shift that followed in the same direction as the younger generation’s preferences, a reversal from preferences today.
What did the results indicate? First, there were several positive shifts. GDP per capita at purchasing power parity rose against the baseline scenario, demonstrating higher average wealth per person. The perception of government effectiveness drastically increased along with the measure of polity. These changes demonstrated that the test scenario not only created a more prosperous Egypt but a more stable Egypt. Forecasted state failure due to internal war events dropped significantly and the risk index for Egypt immediately declined. The system maps shown on this slide along the right show the interactions within the system that the effects on GDP per capita and the measure of democracy were projected to have on increasing stability. As stability increases, the measures affecting it accelerate and the cycle continues in a positive and reinforcing direction. In short, the model shows that democracy combined with freedom, especially in the area of self-expression is good for stability and prosperity in Egypt. Furthermore, increases in GDP affect a variety of variables aforementioned, such as life expectancy and fertility rate, as well as others, such as literacy and education, that promote growth in the human development index, which is a measure of health and prosperity not only for Egypt but for the world.
The quote shown here by the US Department of State demonstrates its belief that it can bolster Egypt’s democracy and affect economic growth. Areas of research in this study helped to determine potential changes that are likely to affect prosperity in a positive manner, the strength of those changes, and the intervention points for potential policy changes. It also showed how stability and prosperity are closely linked and how social factors as well as economic factors have an effect on prosperity and well-being. Specifically, the research using the International Futures Model demonstrated that if the US and Egypt were to take immediate actions focused on promoting self-expression over survival in the 18-24 year old age group, coupled with investments affecting freedom and democracy multipliers in the global system, a shift could occur in Egypt by 2050 that would not only increase GDP per capita but would greatly decrease the risk of war, increase perceptions of the effectiveness of government, and create the stability in the region necessary to promote further economic growth. Thus, the United States can stand by the statement that it can bolster Egypt’s democratic system and help Egypt achieve economic growth.The logical next steps are to formulate questions for additional research to include testing the specific tactics that could achieve immediate shifts in young people’s perceptions. The nexus between education and technology is one area that comes to mind. In any case, according to the model, there is hope to build pyramids of change for Egypt.
