2. 2
TABLE OF CONTENTS
List of acronyms .................................................................................................................. 3
1. Background…………………………................................................................................. 4
2. Strategy ......................................................................................................................... 20
3. Programme description ............................................................................................... 32
4. Results and Resources Framework ........................................................................... 52
5. Timeline………….. ........................................................................................................ 73
6. Budgets…………………………………………………………………………………………77
7. Management Arrangements.........................................................................................78
8. Monitoring Framework and Evaluation.......................................................................88
9. Legal Context................................................................................................................ xx
10. ANNEXES........................................................................................................................xx
3. 3
LIST OF ACRONYMS
BBS Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics
CCA Climate Change Adaptation
CDMP Comprehensive Disaster Management Programme
CPP Cyclone Preparedness Programme
CRA Community Risk Assessment
DMB Disaster Management Bureau
DMCs Disaster Management Committees
DMICs Disaster Management and Information Centers
DRM Disaster Risk Management
DRR Disaster Risk Reduction
DRTs Disaster Response Teams
ERF Early Recovery Facility
EWS Early Warning System
FPP Flood Preparedness Programme
FYP Five Year Plan
GARD Get Airport Ready for Disaster
GDP Gross Domestic Products
GoB Government of Bangladesh
HFA Hyogo Framework for Action
LDRRF Local Disaster Risk Reduction Facilities
M&E Monitoring and Evaluation
MDGs Millennium Development Goals
MIC Middle Income Country
MoDMR Ministry of Disaster Management and Relief
NDIS National Disaster Management Information System
NDMA National Disaster Management Act
NECP National Earthquake Contingency Plan
NIM National Implementation Modality
NGO Non-Governmental Organizations
NPD National Programme Director
NRP National Resilience Programme
OCHA Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs
PCU Programme Coordination Unit
SDGs Sustainable Development Goals
SOD Standing Orders on Disaster
UN United Nations
UNDP United Nations Development Programme
UNISDR UN Office for Disaster Risk Reduction
UNW UN Women
UNOPS UN Office for Project Services
4. 4
1. Background
1.1. Situation Analysis
1.1.1 Vulnerability context - unabating recurrent disasters in Bangladesh affecting
people, communities, livelihoods and development.
A defining feature of Bangladesh, its society, people and communities is their resilience.
Bangladesh is said to be one of the most vulnerable countries of the world in terms of natural
and anthropogenic hazards1
. As per the recent World Risk Report (2015)2
Bangladesh has
been rated as the sixth most natural disaster-prone country among 173 countries in the world.
The geography and climate have made the country vulnerable to different meteorological,
hydrological and geological hazards. At the same time, Bangladesh is one of the countries,
most at risk from the adverse impacts of climate change and variability. Climate change will
exacerbate many of the natural hazards the country already faces and bring significant
challenges to the country and the future development.
In Bangladesh, natural disasters have been leaving lasting impacts on environment, ecology,
society and human livelihoods for generations. The disastrous hazards often leading to many
kinds of disasters in the country are tropical cyclones with associated storm-surges, floods,
flash flood, tornadoes, hail storm and lighting, sea-level rise, river-bank erosions, landslides,
infrastructure collapse, fire, water logging, water and soil salinity, droughts, epidemic and
various forms of pollution, etc. These events are termed disasters when they adversely affect
the entire environment, including human beings, shelters and the resources essential for
livelihoods. In the affected areas, these events have had irreversible and damaging effects on
the livelihoods of many people as well as on the performance of the key economic sectors of
the Bangladesh economy including land, agriculture, water, industry, energy, etc.
There are many social, economic and environmental factors that determine the vulnerability,
exposure and impact of a disaster in Bangladesh. The country currently ranks 142 out of 188
countries in the UNDP’s Human Development Index (HDI, 2015), it has achieved enormous
progress, having doubled its HDI score since 1980. Bangladesh has decreased its poverty
rate from 56.6% in 1991 to 31.5% in 2013, however more than 40 million people still live below
the poverty line. Over the past 35 years, the country’s population has almost doubled from 71
million in the 1970’s to 156 million by 2015 with the rate of population growth at 1.6%.
Sprawling mega-cities have expanded with the migration of people from rural areas in search
of livelihoods and opportunities, with 40 per cent of the population of Bangladesh now living
in cities compared to only 25 per cent in 1970. The urban population is growing at 27% of the
total population with a rate of 3.5 % per annum and with very high population density of
1,237.51 persons per square kilometer. The annual hazards such as floods, droughts and
cyclones affect different corners of Bangladesh, affecting large numbers of people, mostly
those living in poverty, in perilous conditions in rural and remote areas. Often the poor and the
most vulnerable settle in hazardous areas such as flood plains or along fault-lines because
the land is more affordable or it is the only land available in densely populated areas. Over
time, vulnerable populations’ exposure to disasters has increased. Women and girls have
been found to be more negatively impacted before, during and after disasters due to persistent
inequalities and their subordinate role in society (Bradshaw and Fordham 2013). Economic
development has been rapid in the country and has provided new opportunities for many but
1
Natural hazards can be identified into three broad groups such as atmospheric hazards caused by atmospheric processes (storm,
cyclone, tornado, hurricane, drought etc), exogenic hazards caused by the earth surface processes (flood, riverbank erosion, coastal
erosion, landslide,soil erosion,and groundwater contamination), and endogenic hazardscaused by internal earthprocesses(ea rthquake
and volcanic eruption). On many occasionsthere are overlapsbetween these different events. Natural hazardscan be profiled against
seven basic criteria viz. event magnitude, frequency of occurring,duration, areal extent,speed of onset, spatial dispersion and temporal
spacing.
2
World Risk Report 2015: UnitedNationsUniversity (www.worldriskreport.org)
5. 5
as economic growth increased, so did the value of the infrastructure and assets that could
potentially be destroyed by a disaster. These assets are increasingly located on land exposed
to hazards due to a lack of available space and rapid development, and thus potential
economic exposure has also increased over time.
Other changes over the past 35 years should also be considered as possibly affecting
statistical trends. Disaster events are now more regularly and accurately recorded than they
were in 1970 in the country although the collection of gender, age and disability disaggregated
data sill lags behind in Bangladesh, as it does in most countries. The progress towards
achieving the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and the Hyogo Framework for Action
(HFA) has improved the resilience in the country over time, with some reduction of disaster
risks. Although, other vulnerabilities, risks, mega-disaster events and climate change are still
affecting the intensity and frequency of disaster occurrences in the country.
Since 1970, the country has been hit by more than 300 disasters causing more than 10 million
fatalities and affecting the lives of more than 30 million (figure-1). Among the total disaster
events, the number of hydro-meteorological disasters quadrupled from 4 per year in 1970-
1979 to 16 per year in 2009-2015, while reports of geophysical natural disaster events
substantially increased as well during the same period. Floods and cyclonic storms, the most
frequent events recorded in the country, represented two of the highest increases in
occurrence. In particular, reports on flooding soared over three-fold from 3 events per year in
1970-1979 to 9 events per year in 2009-2015. The disaster events which increased most in
number were the small and medium scale disaster events which surged significantly between
the 1970’s and recent years; the frequency of disaster events with more than 100 fatalities
has not changed very much. The worst disaster in terms of loss of life occurred in 1970, when
Cyclone “Bhola” struck Bangladesh and caused a storm surge that killed 300,000 people and
affected 3.6 million more. Around twenty years later when a more severe cyclone struck the
same region in Bangladesh, 138,000 people died and 15 million people were affected,
becoming the second largest storm with respect to fatalities, though notably less people died
due primarily to disaster risk management efforts in the country. Also, it should be noted that
these event increases are partly due to improvements in reporting capacity and practices. In
Cyclone Bhola in 1970, women victims outnumbered men 14 to 1. In Cyclone Sidr in 2007,
casualties were reduced to approximately 3,500 and the ratio of female to male deaths had
dropped to 5 to 1. While this still represents a significant imbalance, it can be seen that some
progress has been made, largely due to the building of cyclone shelters and moresympathetic
management of them for gender sensitivity3
.
Figure 1: Total occurrences of natural disaster events and fatalities by year
3
Mahfuzul Hasan Bhuiyan 2013 'Improving Women’sOddsin Disasters' World Bank
http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/feature/2013/12/12/improving-women-disasters
6. 6
Source: UNESCAP Statistics Database, 2016
According to the latest disaster-related statistics (2015) produced by the Bangladesh Bureau
of Statistics for the 2009-2015 period; the number of households affected by disasters is
recorded at 56.52%; with 24.44% households (HHs) affected by flood, 15.10% by cyclone,
10.59 % by thunderstorms, 10.49% by drought, 9.84% by water logging, 8.42% by hailstorm,
6.13% by storm/tidal surge respectively (figure-2). Besides these, there are occurrences of
earthquakes which at times make significant impact both on social life and topography of the
country.
Figure-2: Percentage of disasters affected by category by households (2009-2014)
Source: GoB’s Disaster Statistics, 2015
Cyclone and storm-surges and floods are common annual events during the pre-monsoon
and retreating monsoon periods. The areas affected with natural disasters (cyclone, flood, and
river erosion) with impact regions in the country are shown in figure-3:
Figure-3: Cyclones, floods and river erosion prone areas in Bangladesh
7. 7
Source: GOB, 2013
Cyclones occurfrequently in Bangladesh which has the worstrecord in magnitude of cyclones
and storm surges in the world, both having severe impacts that destroy crops and resource
bases,damage infrastructure,homes and vital installations, water, and also cause widespread
health hazards for the people. Along with storm surges there are other short-to-longer term
problems with salt water intrusion ruining the soils. The major cyclones in recent years were
in 1970, 1991, 1994, 1998, 2000, 2004, 2007 and 2008 and the worst and most extreme
destructive cyclones were Sidr (2007) and Nargis (2008). The toll of lives lost due to the
magnitude of these cyclones is high and they also caused an enormous number of casualties.
The cyclones in 1970 (300,000 dead) and 1991 (138,000 dead) are among the worst natural
disasters in the world. Recent tornado events, suchas those whichhappened in 1989 (Saturai,
Manikganj) and 1996 (Tangail, Sirajganj), also had enormous and devastating impacts on
Bangladesh’s resource base and infrastructure. The magnitude of the impact through these
cyclones has multiplied the problems of poverty and has seriously challenged the economy
and livelihoods of the people. Sea level is also increasing in Bangladesh. The recent research
reports drawn from various sources highlight that possible sea level rise in Bangladesh will
not only affect resources, land, water and livelihood, but also dislocate 35 million people from
the coastal districts by 2050, causing increased food, water and human insecurities; rural to
urban migrations with many poor people moving to cities and increasing the numbers of slum
dwellers; increase of social conflicts over resources (land, forest and water) and services;
severe scarcity of drinking water and health hazards due to salinity intrusion both in ground
and surface water.
Flooding is a fact of life to the people of Bangladesh. Most of the country consists of a huge
flood plain and delta with 10% of the land area made up of lakes and rivers, and 70 % of the
total area less than 1 meter above sea level. Bangladesh generally experiences four types of
floods: a) flash floods (due to onset of S-W monsoon); rainfed floods (happens in deltas in
western regions); c) river floods (inundated due to monsoons); and storm surge floods (occur
along coastal areas). The country always experiences heavy monsoon rains, especially over
the highlands and tropical storms bringing heavy rains and coastal flooding. It should be noted
that Bangladesh has always experienced some degree of flooding from normal to above
normal but in recent times, these floods have become a complex phenomenon for the country
posing enormous threats to the population. Each year in Bangladesh about 26,000 km2
(around 18% of the country) is flooded, killing over 5,000 people and destroying more than
seven million homes.During severe floods the affected area could exceed 75% of the country,
such as was experienced during the 1998 floods. The floods have caused devastation in
Bangladesh throughout history, notably during the years 1966, 1987, 1988 and 1998. The
2007 south Asian floods also affected a large portion of Bangladesh.
8. 8
When unprecedented flooding occurs, the land area is under water making millions of people
homeless and losing all their belongings; there is an increase in the death toll due to people
drowning in flood waters; increases in health problems due to contamination of water by waste
and human/animal dead carcasses; and the lack of clean water supply results in the spread
of diseases (cholera and typhoid). The flooding also severely affects crops, harvested stocks
and ultimately the food supply system. Bangladesh is a low-lying area with 34% of people
living in coastal areas with the backdrop of rising intensity and frequency of cyclones and
water surges below 1 meter above sea level. Flooding is a particularly serious issue in coastal
areas when it can cause salinization of the land and the drinking water systems; the non-
suitability of soils for cultivation and without much diversification of income the livelihoods of
people are much harder. According to recent research, the number of people displaced from
their lands due to riverbank erosion, permanent inundation and sea level rise are increasing
rapidly every year. Projections indicate that Bangladesh, already one of the countries most
vulnerable to climate change, will likely face more frequent, larger-scale and intensified floods,
cyclones and drought that will cause widespread damage to the economy and further disrupt
systems.
River bank erosions are an endemic and recurrent natural hazard in Bangladesh. Along the
courses of the mighty rivers passing in the country (e.g. Jamuna, Meghna, etc.) erosion takes
away chunks of land every year causing displacement of large numbers of people and losses
of property. Every year, millions of people are affected by erosion that destroys standing crops,
farmland and homestead land. It is estimated that about 5% of the total floodplain of
Bangladesh is directly affected by erosion. The in-country research studies conducted have
reported that river bank erosion is taking place in about 94 out of 489 upazilas of the country.
At present, bank erosion and flood hazards in nearly 100 upazilas have become almost a
regular feature and of these, 35 are severely affected. Due to recurrence of such erosion,
displaced people are forced to move to cities to earn a livelihood. This adds to the growth of
slum areas, scarcity of land in the cities and also creates various social problems; displaced
women often fall prey to human traffickers or forced into prostitution.4
Bangladesh is susceptible to strong and violent tornadoes; its geography is its downfall and
Bangladesh is in a prime spot for twisters. Cold air from the Himalaya Mountains to the north
meets hot, humid air coming from the Bay of Bengal located in the south. The clash brings
strong thunderstorms. The storms lead to about 60 tornadoes each year. The country’s peak
tornado months are April and May. Bangladesh has the worst tornadoes ever recorded in
terms of fatalities with recent ones being the Daulatpur-Saturia (26 April 1989) that killed 1300
people; and Jamalpur-Tangail (Madarganj and Mirzapur) (13 May 1996) where 30,000 homes
were destroyed and 700 people killed. Tornadoes cause localized devastation and demand
an immediate response. According to a recent disaster report (2013-2014), a total number of
30-40 tornado incidents were reported which were particularly catastrophic in nature affecting
villages; injuring and killing people and affecting a total of 5,000 households heavily and 3,000
households partially.
Bangladesh is becoming vulnerable to mega-disasters such as earthquakes. Due to its close
proximity to tectonically active plate boundaries, Bangladesh is prone to earthquake. The
country has experienced numerous large earthquakes in the past 200 years. In the north and
northeast of Bangladesh, there are areas of high seismic activity and some of the major
earthquakes originating in these areas have affected the adjacent regions of the country. The
whole of Bangladesh is divided into three seismic zones (figure 4)5
. Various longitudinal
4 Trend and Impact Analysis of Internaldisplacement dueto the Impact ofDisaster and ClimateChange,CDMP/MoDMR, 2014
5
The Zone-I liesin the northern part covering greater districtsof Rangpur, Mymensingh, andSylhet are in the Zone -I where earthquake
shock of maximum intensity of IX of the ModifiedMercalli Scaleispossible. The Zone-II includesthe greater districtsof Dinajpur, Bogra,
Dhaka and Chittagongandthe shocksof intensity of VIII are possible.Thesouthern part of the country, the least activereg ion,where the
maximum intensity isnot likely to exceedVII, isin the Zone-III.Theexpertssuggest not to construct normal buildingswith more than 60m
height.
9. 9
analyses of the long period earthquake data show that Bangladesh as a whole lies in the
earthquake zone, of which two-thirds comes under the major and moderate fault categories.
Historically the country has been affected by many
earthquakes, both in the country and in the region
sharing of same tectonic belt. The list of significant
earthquakes6
that occurred are: Arakan earthquake
(1762); Chittagong earthquake (1997); Sikkim
earthquake (2011); Nepal earthquake (April 2015, May
2015); Myanmar earthquake (April 2016); Northeast
India earthquake (2016); and lastly the Myanmar
earthquake (August 2016). As per the recorded history
of recent seismic events in the south-east Asia, the
country has the potentiality of present and future
earthquake hazards. Moreover, the 1997 Chittagong
earthquake with an intensity of 6.1 on Richter Scale
shook the entire Chittagong with intensity touching
even Dhaka. This event has caused severe jolts to
buildings in Chittagong, human death toll, and sizeable
property destruction. Earthquakes with magnitudes
between 7.0 and 8.7 on the Richter scale have been
experienced in this country, but they are rare events.
According to the Journal of Nature Geoscience research,the earthquake may not be imminent
presently, but inevitable in the nearer future for Bangladesh. And the additional research from
the seismic studies in the south-east Asia region emphasize that a potential giant earthquake
may be building up beneath Bangladesh and could endanger the country, jeopardizing millions
of people. Since Bangladesh is the world's most densely populated country, with an increase
in urbanization, unplanned cities, unregulated building constructions, as an earthquake hits,
the damage could be severe to heavy industries, power plants and structures at natural gas
sites which would likely be destroyed.
In recent years, incidents of building collapse have increased significantly throughout the
country. There were a number of buildings collapsed killing people. However, the collapse of
Rana Plaza on April 24, 2013 was the most tragic industrial accident in the history of
Bangladesh; it killed 1135 people, leaving 2,500 people injured. In figure-5, the increasing
trends of the total technological disaster events and fatalities caused in the country, such as
industrial accident, transport accident and miscellaneous accident have been exhibited for the
period since 1979 until 2015.
Figure 5: Total occurrences of technological (industrial) disaster events and fatalities by year
Source: UNESCAP Statistics Database, 2016
6
In addition, major earthquakesoccurred in Bangladesh and surroundingareasin the years1833, 1897,1906, 1918, 1923, 1926, 1927,
1930, 1934, 1939, 1941,1943,1947, 1950, 1951, 1954, 1957,1962, 1965, and1988 (Karmakar, 1989).
10. 10
Fire is one of the notable human induced disasters in Bangladesh. Among all categories of
fire, fire in garment industries is noticeable and frequent, where most of the fatalities and
injuries are caused to women. Every year, hundreds of people die and many are injured due
to fire accidents. In 2014-2015, a total number of 16,000 fire incidents took place throughout
the country and most of them occurred in Dhaka and Chittagong. Secondary data from
newspapers shows that in 2014 the number of deaths occurring due to fire hazard were 90
and 201 people were injured. There are many unreported fires in garment and textile factories
in Bangladesh.
Besides the above-mentioned hazards, other significant risks in Bangladesh are arsenic
contamination, salinity intrusion, droughts, water logging and landslides. The southwestern
coastal belt of Bangladesh has suffered from salinity intrusion and water logging for many
years; the resultant environmental disasters affected women more than men socio-
economically and health status wise. Arsenic contamination of ground water is also a cause
of prolonged suffering for large parts of the country. However, there was only one reported
incident of land slide in 2013 at Lalkhan Bazar, Chittagong City on 28th July. In total 2 women
were killed in the incident
There is also the case of drought in the northwestern part of Bangladesh which experiences
recurrent but unpredictable drought conditions at
intervals. These droughts occur especially in the semi-
arid regions (hot-spots) of the country where the
agriculture sector is highly vulnerable due to the high
temperatures. Records show that Bangladesh had, in the
recent past, drought conditions with disastrous crop
failures. And with climate variability, the coverage and
intensity of drought has increased, causing: a) damage
to soil, productivity of land and fertility, loss of agriculture
and crops,food insecurity and nutrition; b) loss of ecology
and natural resources, green coverage and forest,
livestock, water and fisheries; and c) increase in water
scarcity, heat stress and damages to human health.
Scientific studies suggest that the drought condition in
the hot-spot regions (figure-5) of the country would be
further aggravated with an already warmer climate and
increased exposure to droughts would destroy
opportunities and cause significant strain to the socio-
economic structure.
Climate change (climate variability) in Bangladesh is an extremely crucial issue for the nation,
being most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change now and in the coming years. The
high vulnerability to climate change is mainly due to a number of hydro-geological factors (flat
deltaic topography with very low elevation; extreme climate variability that is governed by
erratic precipitation and which results in acute water distribution over space and time) which
link to existing socio-economic conditions. The threats of changing climate to Bangladesh will
have negative effects on its development with major implications for several climate-sensitive
sectors (agriculture & fisheries, coastal areas, water resources & hydrology, coastal areas,
forestry & biodiversity, urban areas) and for human systems (vulnerable groups, human health
and human settlements). The livelihoods of more than 80 percent of the country’s population
come from these economic sectors.
Various climate model projections on the country indicate that, the impacts of climate change
are expected to increase the frequency and intensity of extreme climatic events such as floods
(urban flood, flash flood, and river flood); cyclones and storm surges; sea-level rise and inland
intrusion of the coast line; increase in soil salinity; droughts, and etc. It is projected that, by
DroughtProneareasof
Bangladesh
11. 11
2030, between 50 to 75 million people will be affected by water stress caused by climate
change in country and the low-lying coastal regions, are vulnerable to sea level rise and
increased occurrence of intense, extreme weather conditions such as cyclones. The
projections of a rise in sea-level will cause significant damage in the coastal areas. A rise of
just 40 cm in the Bay of Bengal would put 11% of Bangladesh's coastal land under water and
create 7-10 million climate refugees. And according to UNEP predictions, a 1.5metre rise in
sea levels would submerge 16% of the country and directly affect 30m people. This makes
Bangladesh the single most vulnerable country to the impacts of rising sea levels.
With a larger population facing losses in arable lands due to climate variability, the impacts
further pose an acute risk to the agriculture sector with decline in yields up to 50% and overall
agriculture productivity for the entire country projected to decline to levels between 3 to 16 %
by 2030. The fisheries sector would be adversely affected due to the impacts of Climate
Change because the sector contributes about 3.5% of the GDP in Bangladesh and people
depend on fish products in order to meet the majority of their daily protein requirements. There
are around 260 species of fish in the country and almost all the varieties are sensitive to
specific salt and freshwater conditions.
The effects of climate change on the surface and ground water resources are very severe and
alarming. And in Bangladesh, changes to water resources and hydrology will have a significant
impact on the country’s economy, where people mostly depend on the surface water for
irrigation, fishery, industrial production, and other activities. A decrease in freshwater
availability could affect more than a billion people by 2050. Urban areas with cities and towns
situated along the coastal areas are at the front line of climatechange related disaster impacts
and could experience severe damage directly because of rise in sea levels and storm surges
at any time. There will also be other direct impacts occurring from increased floods, drainage
congestion and water logging as well as infrastructure damage during extreme weather
events. This all leads to severe consequences for the urban infrastructure, industry, trade,
commerce and other essential utility services. It also noted that, around 40 per cent of the
urban population in Bangladesh lives in the slums and squatter settlements of the major cities
which are highly prone to flooding.
Hence, given Bangladesh’s dependence on key economic sectors (as listed above), the
effects of climate change could put millions of people at greater risk of poverty and hunger,
ultimately causing extremely adverse effects on food security, livelihoods and economic
prosperity of the country. Furthermore, as mentioned above, the disaster impacts do not fall
equally among people in Bangladesh but some social groups, such as women, and some
geographical locations are hit harder.
1.1.2 Losses caused to national economy due to various types of natural disasters in
Bangladesh:
The overall economy of Bangladesh is tremendously impactedby natural disasters.Apart from
short-term consequences, the long-term impacts of those disasters are quite high. All the
planning efforts for development by Government are disrupted by these calamities that leave
behind damaged infrastructure facilities, physical assets and land. The human suffering goes
beyond description. In the table-1 below, a sample of the disaster events, years occurred and
the associated losses of the sectors are exhibited.
12. 12
Table-1: Disasters, years, losses and affected sectors
Between 1970 and 2013, the country reported over $ 180.3 million (in constant 2005 US
dollars) in economic losses from natural disasters, while it has been reported that disaster
losses are at least 50 percent higher than nationally reported figures (figure 6). The latest
figures indicate that the total economic losses for the country for a ten-year moving average
period of 2005-2014, would be around $ 285.4 million. When economic losses were measured
as a percentage of the country’s GDP, losses range between 1.1 per cent to 0.8 per cent. The
impact of natural hazards in the country have potentially significant implications for public
finance, increasing expenditure and simultaneously reducing domestic revenue.
Figure 6: Economic losses of natural disasters by year (in million dollars and % of GDP)
Source: UNESCAP Statistics Database, 2016
Furthermore, according to the country’s Statistics Bureau report, a commissioned study for
the period covering 2009-2014 surveyed 143,980 households in all 64 districts and found that
20 million people (12.64 percent of the total population) reside in Bangladesh’s disaster-prone
areas. The number of deaths, economic losses, and infrastructure damages associated with
different disasters is alarming. The country is losing a large amount of GDP each year due to
various natural disasters and this is why the country’s GDP growth rate is also fluctuating and
making the economy more vulnerable and unpredictable. Between 2009 and 2014,
Bangladesh has lost Tk 184.25 billion to natural disasters. Among the total losses, natural
disasters in the last six years claimed most losses of crops worth Tk 66.7 billion (36.2 percent
of the total loss) followed by river erosions with a loss of Tk 49.23 billion, while damage to
Disasters Years Losses (medium/high) and Affected sectors
Storm surge 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2011,
2013
High: Human, Fisheries,Land, Health, Housing, Infrastructure;
Medium: Agriculture, Livestock, Communication.
Cyclone 2004, 2005, 2006, 2008, 2009,
2010, 2011, 2013
High: Human, Agriculture, Land, Health, Housing, Infrastructure,
Communication; Medium: Fisheries, Livestock, Cattle.
Flood 1986,1987,1988, 1995, 1998,
2004, 2009
High: Human, Agriculture, Infrastructure; Medium: Fisheries,
Livestock, communication.
Storm wind 2004, 2005, 2006, 2008, 2009,
2010, 2011, 2013, 2014, 2015
High: Human, Agriculture, Infrastructure; Medium: Fisheries,
Livestock, communication.
Thunderstorm 2004, 2005, 2006, 2008, 2009,
2010, 2011, 2013, 2014, 2015
High: Human. Agriculture, Health; Medium: LivestockCattle.
Hail storm 2004, 2005, 2006, 2008, 2009,
2010, 2011, 2013, 2014, 2015
High: Human. Agriculture, Health, Housing; Medium: Cattle,
Livestock
Salinization 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2011,
2013
High: Land, Fisheries, Agriculture, Health, Infrastructure; Medium:
Agriculture, livestock
Seasonal drought 2004, 2005, 2006, 2008, 2009,
2010, 2011, 2013, 2014, 2015
High: Human, Agriculture, Land; Medium: Livestock
Pest and disease
epidemic
2004, 2005, 2006, 2008, 2009,
2010, 2011, 2013, 2014, 2015
High: Human, Agriculture, Land, Health; Medium: Livestock
13. 13
houses caused a loss of Tk 31.68 billion. Furthermore, billions of national budget is lost as the
result of government undertaking mitigation and preparedness measures to disasters through
constructing roads, culverts, bridges and other infrastructures each year but the natural
hazards continue to wash them out; imposing additional pressures on public finances.
It should be noted that the impact and suffering due to natural and human made disaster not
only depends on their nature, type and scale, but also on how different government and non-
government organizations respond to that disaster. Institutional strength, technological know-
how and access to technologies play a significant role in successful disaster management.
For example, in 1991 and 1997, cyclones were of the same magnitude; but in the 1991
cyclone, approximately 138,882 people died compared to the death toll in 1997 which
numbered 134. This decrease was possible due to improved forecasting systems, adequate
warning dissemination, social mobilization, proper coordination by the government and other
institutional backups. The example set by Bangladesh in disaster management during the last
two decades has provided the country the status of role model of disaster management to
global communities, particularly in areas of cyclones and flood management. The role of the
government and non-governmental organizations during the pre and post disaster periods
helped reduce the number of deaths and damage.
However, still damages and human suffering from disasters are common features in many
parts of the country. Though natural disasters cannot be prevented, the damage can be
minimized with adequate preparedness and risk reduction measures. The impacts of these
disasters differ by type and magnitude from time-to-time. They also critically depend on
institutional strength and response capacity of different agencies that usually take measures
to manage disasters such as the government and civil service organizations. Bangladesh has
given the highest priority to risk reduction initiatives in disaster management efforts and
mainstreaming it in all development initiatives of the government.
Disasters often have devastating consequences and are the cause of major damage to
infrastructure, great loss of property, crops, livestock, poultry, and causing social disruption.
Each of the major disasters as discussed above has adversely affected humans and their
livelihoods, thus lingering the poverty situation in the country. Poverty forces many people to
live in disaster-prone areas. Each year many people are forced to migrate to cities from rural
areas because of frequent occurrences of disasters, weak capacities to cope during and in
the aftermath of disaster events that disrupt their properties, and ultimately their livelihoods.
Men from these disaster hot-spots migrate to urban cities, searching for employment
opportunities. That has a societal impact on families and rural communities, and also leads to
a high risk of violence and sexual harassmentto women.On the whole, the impacts of frequent
occurrences of natural hazards in Bangladesh have heavily increased losses of life, decline in
agricultural production, displacement of human beings, losses of valuable livestock, disruption
in communication and livelihood systems, and further marginalization of women socio-
economically bolstering entrenchment of gender inequality within the societal system. The
damages to infrastructure and property and dent in socio-economic condition caused through
disasters are immense and hold back years of development progress.
Over the last decade, Bangladesh’s has made great strides in disaster risk reduction and
disaster management (the next section explains the status of resilience in the country), though
progress has been uneven, and many challenges still remain. The landscape of the country
is changing with recurrent and mega-disaster. In recent years there is growing evidence in
Bangladesh of increased exposure, alongside declining sensitivities to tropical storms and
floods and increased resilience resulting from both economic transformation and public
actions for disaster reduction. Though the country has been resistant to various extreme
disaster events, it requires further resilience building measures and structures to address
mega-disaster risks and climate-induced shocks and stress both at the national planning
system and at the community level by laying resilient pathways which are gender responsive.
14. 14
Against this background, the formulation of a next phase of a national resilience programme
was justified in being optimistic that the country can make further progress in the years to
come.
1.1.3 Future projections of disasters and climate-induced risks in Bangladesh
Over the past decades, the country has been hit with many disasters events affecting millions
of people. But the proportions in number of total fatalities has gradually showed a decreasing
trend which is mainly due to increasing the country’s capacity to deal with disaster events.
Reports from the scientific community on Bangladesh has highlighted that, tsunami and storm
surges are a threat to coastalregions, particularly gulfs, bays, and estuaries. The flood hazard
that results from river floods and torrential rain would further expand up to two-thirds of the
country. Tropical storm intensity zones indicate that there is a 10% probability of a storm of
this intensity striking in the next 10 years. Since the delta is mostly at and close to sea level,
so rivers will quickly over flow and river islands form and disappear in the coming decades.
The hazard of dryness and drought caused by major deviations from the normal amounts of
precipitation would further increase in the near future.
Climate change poses significant risks for Bangladesh both now and in the near future, which
is likely to alter and in some cases exacerbate both the existing hazards and create new ones
The impacts would continue with intensification of higher temperatures, more variable
precipitation, more extreme weather events, and sea level rise. Further, scenarios for the
future predict greater monsoon rainfall with increased risk of flooding and decreasing dry
season rainfall leading to drought and inland water salinity. The combination of sea level rise
and cyclone-induced storm surges are projected to expose an additional 15% of coastal
Bangladesh to inundation7
. Sea level rise is also expected to contribute to increases in soil
salinity, with coastal areas expected to experience a median increase of 26% in soil salinity
by 2050, with the worst-affected areas seeing as much as a 55% increase.8
In the northwest
of the country, seasonal drought is likely to increase9
. Apart from these changing hydro-
meteorological hazards, the recent earthquakes in the region has put into stark relief the need
to address earthquake vulnerability in Bangladesh’s rapidly growing cities. Earthquake
intensity zones indicate that there is a 20% probability that degrees of intensity indicated will
be exceeded in next 20—30 years.
Bangladesh population is also increasing rapidly and more specifically with large number of
people migrating for their living to cities. And no-where are people more concentrated than in
Dhaka, whichaverages 45,000 people per square kilometer. With more than 16 million people,
it is one of the world’s mostcrowdedand fastest-growingcities. As its population grows,Dhaka
is expanding quickly. The buildings are mostly brick masonry, non-engineered, and mostly
unplanned. Many of these new buildings, bridges, and roads are not built to withstand
earthquakes especially on the soft, wet delta sediment. In places like Dhaka, earthquakes can
cause solid sediments to liquefy. This “liquefaction” would destroy much of city’s construction.
And like the rest of Bangladesh, the capital is vulnerable to flooding. If an earthquake sparked
a tsunami, or caused rivers to over flow, flooding could devastate the city. As mentioned in
previous sections, cities in Bangladesh now probably stands in the highest risk cities among
the other great cities in the region and world. There is a great need for the country policy and
infrastructure systems to update and enforce building codes, educate the public about how to
prepare for earthquakes, and train rescue workers. There is also need to prepare surrounding
7 WorldBank (2010): Economics of AdaptationtoClimateChange: Bangladesh.
8 WorldBank (2014), Climatechange, soil salinity, andthe economics ofhigh-yieldrice production incoastal Bangladesh.
9 Bioforsk (2014): Agricultural interventions andinvestment options forclimate change in drought andsaline-floodprone regions of
Bangladesh.
15. 15
areas, especially where people rely on rivers for agriculture, fisheries etc. A major earthquake
could shift a river’s course, causing massive, widespread destruction.
Comparing scenarios of these hazards in Bangladesh and their corresponding scales all over
the world, suitable intensity scales and their corresponding damage risk levels were proposed
in the following table-2.
Table 2: A summary of anticipated changes
Climate Parameter Observed climate change Future climate scenarios Confidence in projection
Increasing
temperatures
Observed. Trend analysis
(1961-2007) indicates that the
average minimum and
maximum temperatures are
increasing at a rate of 0.09O
C
and 0.07O
C per decade.
Warmer in all seasons. Higher
average temperatures and
increase in extreme high
temperatures.
High confidence, good
agreement betw een climate
models.
Changing intensities
of rainfall
An increase of rainfall
intensities. Rainfall is
increasing at 2.26% per
decade, w ith significant
increase in w inter, and pre-
and post-monsoon.
Most models indicate w etter
monsoon conditions. Likely to
be associated w ith higher
rainfallintensities.
Medium confidence.
Droughts Droughts are associated with
low rainfalland high
evaporation in some years.
The El-Nino Southern
Oscillation plays a role in
drought events.
Given reductions in mean dry
season rainfallit is likely that
dry spells may
increase/lengthen w ith
impacts for w ateravailability.
Medium confidence.
Cyclone and storm
surge
Observation supports the
increase of the frequency or
severe cyclonic storms. Rising
average cyclone wind speed.
If the trend continues the
frequency of sever cyclonic
storms is expected to rise.
Cyclones to have stronger
w ind speed and higher storm
surges.
Low confidence, evidence
points tow ards some increase
in frequency/intensity.
SLR (including
sedimentationand
subsidence effects)
Bangladesh coastaltidal data
(1977-1998) records SLR,
though the degree of rise
show sregionalvariation. LSR
is due to global w arming and
geological subsidence.
A great deal of conflicting
evidence.
High confidence, but with a
w ide range in detailed
estimates depending on
emission scenarios. Regional
and local situations are also
important.
Source: ‘Climate Change Assessment and Adaptation Strategy’, Coastal Climate-Resilient Infrastructure Project (RRP BAN
45084), modified fromTanner, T., Hassan, A., Islam, K., Conw ay, D., Mechler, R., Ahmed, A. and Alam, M. (2007) ‘ ORCHID:
Piloting Climate Risk Screening in DFID Bangladesh’, Summary Research Report, Institute of Development Studies,
University of Sussex, UK.
1.2 Resilience in development and humanitarian policy contexts in Bangladesh:
Baseline analysis
Bangladesh’s ability to manage disasters has continuously improved ever since the
devastating impacts of the cyclones in the year 1970, where more than half a million people
perished, and the 1991 cyclone that has killed 138,000 people and displaced many resulting
in humanitarian crisis this include massivedamage to infrastructureand institutional disruption
resulted. And since early nineties, with the onslaught of recurrent extreme weather events and
catastrophic post-disaster events has prompted the country to invest heavily in cyclone
shelters and flood embankments, and with these measures has emerged as an innovator and
leader in disaster management both in the region and globally. And between 1990 and 2015
when the most recent devastating cyclone occurred, Bangladesh has experienced more than
300 extreme events. Though the extreme weather events occurred during this period (floods,
cyclones and droughts), those early investments (during 1990) had played critical role in
significantly reducing the death tolls and post-disaster damages.
16. 16
Moreover, this reduction happened mainly due to the change in the approach where
Bangladesh replaced its reactive approach to disasters, with the focus on relief but allowed
long-term vulnerabilities to persist, with a more proactive stand that sought to reduce risks
posed by extreme weather events. This change of approach also began to pay more attention
to the specific vulnerabilities of women who were the major proportion of fatalities in many
major disasters. The other crucial factor that played in the changed approach of the
Bangladesh are the building alliances and developing partnerships between the Government
and the development partners, UN agencies, international organisations, and civil society (role
of CDMP-I & II). This establishment of long partnerships with different agencies has also been
recognized as a gold standard disaster management apparatus and a paradigm shift in policy
towards coordinated disaster preparedness. Research and development (R &D) initiatives
(such as drought and flood-resistant crops, early warning systems, community preparedness,
etc) has also played other important role in drastically reducing both the human and economic
costs of disasters, thus setting a horizon for the world to learn from the Bangladesh
experience. To this extent, the Government of Bangladesh has shared important lessons,best
practices on disaster management with countries in the sub-region, region and as diverse as
other regions globally.
Natural disasters are fact of life for the people of Bangladesh and they always demonstrate
great challenge to the resilience and skill in coping with them. However, these are not sufficient
as new types of mega disasters (earthquakes, urban risks) and climate induced shocks and
stress are posing many challenges and making them further more vulnerable. This changing
disaster context in Bangladesh warrants a new set of policy and innovations, if it is to adapt to
a predicted rise in the intensity and frequency of floods and cyclones resulting from climate
change. It is also noted that Bangladesh has, the highest number of people exposed to the
different types of natural hazards (such as cyclones, storms, floods, erratic rainfall and
droughts) throughout the year. And somestudies have indicated that the percentage of people
living in the flood-prone areas has increased to 100% and in cyclone exposed coastal areas
upto to 200%. And studies in Bangladesh has shown that the poorest people (and those that
are least educated who has an impact on ability to understand or act upon warnings) tend to
reside in areas of highest risk from disasters, making them more vulnerable with limited
resilience to shocks. The Government of Bangladesh has made impressive progress in
development fronts very particularly in pulling people out of pervasive poverty, through
increase in literacy levels (increase in girl’s literacy), employment opportunities for women,
economic independence and empowerment of women, social safety net programmes, access
to clean water, increase food productivity levels, public-policy reforms,boosting private sector,
self-reliance, and etc. Government want to ensure that the recurrent disaster events that
happen in the country does not diminish this hard earned growth and development both in
present period and in future. Hence the stakes are very high, not just for the people in
impoverished settlements along coastal belts and river banks, but for the entire nation.
It should also be noted that the Government has taken many development interventions to
reduce disasters, but the rate of disaster risks does not appear to be abating in the country.
This is mainly due to the extensiveness of many types of natural hazards, disasters, stress,
and shocks recurrently affecting the people and the communities intensively. To encounter
these uncertain disaster trajectories in the country, the Government has also enshrined
“resilience values” in country’s development planning process,making “disasterrisk reduction”
as one of the key priority area in national seventh five year plans (7th
FYP) and other
development strategies. The Government’s inclusion of disaster risk as a priority amongst
priorities, was a response to addresses disaster issues directly and also ensuring investments
in disaster proofing and reducing the country’s vulnerability to the increasing frequency and
severity of natural disasters to ensure that economic and development (MDGs/SDGs) gains
can be sustained over time. Furthermore, the government also has established many policy
statutes and institutional arrangements on the disaster management, whichare sector-specific
17. 17
and also across-sectors with very broad in scope for addressing the complexity of the issues
in disaster sector. All these policy processes have provided for the establishment of an
integrated framework for disaster management in the country, comprehensive in nature and
thus making Bangladesh to manage disasters more professionally.
The Government is now focusing on strengthening further the existing coordinated
intervention on disaster risk reduction by aligning its national policies and government
spending with the urgent need to increase resilience to the threats from recurrent disasters
and emerging mega-disasters (like earthquakes, urban risks) and from the impacts of climate
change. It should be noted that in Bangladesh, all sectors and institutions get affected by
disasters and climate change and there cannot be a separate way of dealing with both the
issues, and hence the country cannot adapt to climate change without considering the impact
of disasters, nor manage the risk of disasters without considering the influence of climate
change. Ad-hock and temporary measures are no longer considered as solutions given the
complexity and scale of meg-disaster events and climate change impacts that is going to
occur. Hence Government is focusing its attention for developing a dynamic, long-term risk-
informed planning mechanisms to manage the inherent uncertainties of mega-disasters with
an integrated strategy for long-term management of natural disasters, and other shocks and
stresses with active engagement of all sectors, national and district disaster authorities, civic
leaderships and the local non-state actors.
For the coordinated approach of resilience building in Bangladesh, the Government is
considering to enhance its stand further basing on the success factors ofCDMP-I & II for future
programmes in disaster risk reduction and disaster management. Government want to bring
solutions that cut across all development sectors including, agriculture, water, education,
health, infrastructure and industry. At policy level, Government continues to strengthen the
planning process through mainstreaming of disaster concerns into the national planning and
budget process so that adequate resources are allocated at the planning stage for all of the
disaster areas for for strategic development interventions that can meet long term objectives
for both disaster risk reduction and disaster management. And the new challenge for the
Government is not only inventing new tools or new infrastructure to development, but adapting
the country’s approach within the new disaster risk reduction of Sendai Framework and the
new Paris agreement on climate change and overall to fit into the new universally adopted
sustainable development goals (SDGs) context instead. There is a need to adjust the existing
national frameworks to reflect for sustainable development, livelihoods and disaster risk
reduction, and gender responsiveness agenda.
Bangladesh has always shown remarkable innovation and resilience in learning to cope with
disasters in the past. However, the country needs to draw from those lessons in determining
strategies and practices warranted by this new context. Hence in building resilience for various
mega-disasters, shocks and stress, as well as making all DRR interventions gender
responsive, there is a need for another paradigm shift for risk reduction with key considerations
to be incorporated into national policies, planning and budgeting processes, regulatory
mechanism, institutional and individual capacities at all levels. Thus this will help improve the
nation’s ability to make informed decisions in a changing disaster and climate context and
create a common platform for policy, financing, planning, implementing and evaluating in the
face of new uncertainties.
1.3 Institutional situation
Considering Bangladesh affected with many natural disasters, several development
interventions over years have been tried or are currently being undertaken, but the rate of
disaster risk reduction does not appear to be abating. To this trajectory of hydro-
meteorological based disaster events, the Government of Bangladesh (GOB) enshrined
“resilience values” in country’s development planning process,making “disasterrisk reduction”
18. 18
as one of the key priority area in the current seventh five-year plan (FYP) and other
development strategies. The Government’s inclusion of disaster risk as a priority amongst
priorities, was a response to addresses disaster issues directly and also ensuring investments
in disaster proofing and reducing the country’s vulnerability to the increasing frequency and
severity of natural disasters to ensure that economic and development (MDGs/SDGs) gains
can be sustained over time.
The key government ministry that coordinates the disaster management in the country is the
Ministry of Disaster Management and Relief (MoDMR) and deals with cross-sectoral issues
on DRR with other line ministries and their departments those includes, Ministry of Planning
(MoP), Ministry of Local Government Rural Development and Cooperatives (MoLGRDC),
Ministry of Women and Child Affairs (MoWCA), Ministry of Health (MoH), Ministry of
Agriculture (MoA), Ministry of Lands (MoL), Ministry of Irrigation and Water Development
(MOI), Ministry of Housing (MOH), Ministry of infrastructure, Ministry of Industry (MoI), Ministry
of ICT, Ministry of Education, Ministry of Civil Aviation, etc.
Bangladesh has many policy statutes and institutional arrangements on the disaster
management, which are sector-specific and also across-sectors with very broad in scope for
addressing the complexity of the issues in disaster sector. The policy statues include vision
2021, Five Year Plans, National Disaster Management Act, National Disaster Management
Plan, Integrated Disaster Management Framework, Risk Reduction Action Plans, Delta Plan,
National Earthquake Contingency Plan, Standing Orders on Disaster, Community Risk
Assessment Guideline, Bangladesh Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan. And the
institutional arrangements that currently existing in the country for the DRR/DRMare National
Disaster Management Council (National Disaster Management Advisory Council), Inter-
Ministerial Disaster Management Coordination Committee, MDMR, Disaster Management
Bureau, Cyclone Preparedness Programme (CPP) Implementation Board, Disaster
Management Committees, Disaster Management and Information Centers, Local Disaster
Risk Reduction Facilities, DistrictDisaster Management Committee,City Corporation Disaster
Management Committee (Municipal/Upazilla/Union), Local Consultative Group on Disaster
Emergency Response, Institute of Disaster Management. All these policies and institutional
arrangements have provided for the establishment of an integrated framework for disaster
management in the country. All existing regulations related to managing disaster in
Bangladesh are comprehensive in nature and helps to manage systems more professional10
.
All these disastergovernance elements that are in place together have considerably increased
the resilience of vulnerable groups in affected areas to cope with disasters, and with an
extremely uncertain future outlook as described in the previous sections, the vulnerability will
only exacerbate due to the extensiveness of many existing natural hazards, disasters, stress,
and shocks recurrently and other new/ emerging ones (earthquakes) in the coming years
affecting the people and the communities intensively.
The recent CDMP-II evaluation conducted by UNDP has highlighted that though the sectors
has showed significant progress in implementation of the DRRprogrammes and activities over
years, local integrated action by these sectors are needed to build the capacity of local
planners and local communities so that they can better manage the risks and opportunities
that disaster and climate change causes. Historically, the collaboration between different
sectors on DRR issues has been limited. The need has arisen that the institutional capacity
for collaboration - the institutional, policy and planning instruments to facilitate integrated risk
reduction and adaptation action – is largely required in the coming years with effective
frameworks for institutional collaboration and leadership on DRR are in place currently.
10
The terminal programme evaluation of CDMP-II (2010-2015) highlighted in achievements about government agenda to disaster risk
reduction in Bangladesh as highly professional.
19. 19
A number of international development partners (UN Agencies, EU, UK-DFID, SIDA, ADB,
World Bank, etc) have been pledged continuous support to Bangladesh’s disaster response
and built resilient livelihoods for the people and sustainable development of the country and
contributed significantly both technically and financially to improve adaptive capacity.
In addition to the government and international development partners and agencies listed
above, a number of non-governmental organisations (NGO) operate on DRR issues in
Bangladesh, funded by a variety of sources. A few of these organisations are operative
throughout Bangladesh, others in one or more districts across the country. In general,
however, an NGO tends to develop knowledge of local conditions in one or moredistricts close
to each other and build on that knowledge. The larger internationally-based NGOs such as
Red Cross,OXFAM, WorldVision International, Action Aid are active in relatively larger areas.
Some of these organizations also partner with smaller NGOs and Community Based
Organisations (CBO) in implementing their DRR projects.
1.4 Programme Justification
1.4.1 Need for a National Resilience Programme (NRP) - Anew approach
During stakeholder’s consultations for this resilience programme (details in next section), it
emerged that a number of areas and districts had reported populations at risk due to disasters
for several years in a row. Stakeholders felt that repeated disasters and new emerging
disasters is likely a signal of eroded livelihoods and reduced resilience. The stakeholders felt
that "Business as Usual" was not enough to address this recurring situation, and there was a
need to explore the dynamics of disaster risks that are risk-informed as it was becoming more
evident that disaster risk reduction need to translate into transformative resilience for all
people in the country so that Bangladesh people, community that are exposed to natural hazards
and climate risks resist, absorb, accommodate to and recoverfrom the effectsof these hazard in a timely
and efficient manner. Hence the new national resilience programme required to further build resilience
in a transformative process by strengthening the capacity of men, women communities, institutions,
through anticipate, prevent, recover from, and transform in the aftermath of shocks, and stresses. This
approach includes the following elements:
Anticipate and Prevent:Shocks may be sudden but the conditions which expose people, and
particular groups, institutions, and society to its impact are developed over time and there are
tell-tale warning signs to indicate, in some measure, the degree of impact specific groups of
people and communities would suffer.
Prepare and Recover:Resilient people, communities, institutions, and environment have shock
absorbers that disperse risks, mitigate their impact, and enhance recovery and self-renewal.
Transform:In the short-to-medium term having the flexibility to adapt to conditions resulting
from shocks, stresses and changes can help communities to cope. But in long-term resilience
requires transformation—the wholesale reinvention of systems including institutions,
community, and ecosystems so that they can better prevent and/ or respond to complex
challenges.
20. 20
2. Strategy – Proposed Response
2.1 The Rationale for National Resilience Programme
The formulation process for the national resilience programme has been initiated with series
of consultations by UNDP, UNDP, UNOPS country teams. In this line, the first consultation
was started with the Government of Bangladesh which comprising of the respective ministries
and their respective department that of MoDMR, MoP, MoWCA, LGED (MoLGRDC) with
deliberation on the lesson learning process from the past DRR projects. This was followed
with other consultations by UN Women team on the gender issues with the national
government and the civil society; the consultations on private sector and business
communities with FBCCI by UNDP; the consultations by UNOPS team with LGED, the
department under MoLGRDC responsible for DRRinfrastructures; the UNDP led post-CDMP-
II consultation with MoDMR and its departments at Maulovi Bazar; and lastly with a high level
Joint National Resilience Programme Design workshop with all the DRR stakeholders held at
BRAC Rajendrapur
The formulation of the national resilience programme in Bangladesh is shaped based on the
four new realities, and they are:
a) The international drivers i.e. sustainable development goals (SDG) and Sendai
Framework offer considerable opportunity, guidance and a longer period of
implementation to innovate approaches to address existing and the new and emerging
risks.
b) The development gains and economic growth made by Bangladesh in the past
decades are significant, but not yet fully risk-proofed. The new context of risk shaped
by climate change and earthquake poses a significant threat to Bangladesh’s desire
to become a MIC and reduce poverty with higher pace.
c) Climatic risk and earthquake pose a great risk to the private sector-ledeconomy, which
at the same time offers new opportunities to transform the risks to opportunity.
d) With the new development context emerging, the next five years towards MIC would
be an important policy moment for international cooperation in DRR. This entails
intensification of efforts on transformational changes so that Bangladesh can continue
with further improvement in DRR despite likely decline of ODA.
The new resilience programme (NRP) considers a long term approach that is needed to
address the disaster risk in Bangladesh and that is be consistent with the Sendai timeframe
ending in 2030. Thus the programmesupports for enhancing GOB’s existing DRR-Minitiatives
and by strengthening its capacity for mega-disaster risk reduction and emergency
management systems and practices for efficient response at national and sub- national levels.
The proposed NRP acknowledges the proactive attitude of the GoB’s and the existing other
programmes (eg. NURP, etc) that have been initiated in this line. The NRP is designed to
generate additional capacity for the Government within the its existing DRR statues and
governance mechanisms and ensure that Bangladesh’s development is sustainable and
disaster and climate resilient. The proposed programme therefore aims to contribute to
strengthen Bangladesh’s capacity to anticipate hazards, absorb shocks and reshape
development to achieve gender responsive resilience to shocks and stress from climatic and
natural hazards. However, this initial 39 months (April 2017 to June 2020) programme will
focus on the foundational work for next 15 years. The key government entities for coordination
and delivery of the NRP will be the MoDMR (lead), MOP, MoWCA, LGED. These key
implementing partners will work with other Priority Sector Ministries as well as non-state
implementing agencies and coordinating institutions. The GoB have made it clear that this
programme should support their ongoing efforts for mega-disaster risks and climate-induced
stress for comprehensive and integrated DRR-M. The programme is designed to be action-
21. 21
oriented and to build capacity in policies, plans, processes and institutions to increase
readiness for action. Further to maximize delivery coordination and efficiency of the
Government for this programme; the joint UN agencies: UNDP, UN Women and UNOPS will
provide support with their technical assistance to the NRP implementation.
It is essential in the NRP that gender be addressed across all programme intervention areas
and approaches and should be considered in DRR-M at any stage from planning to
implementation. The proposed programme will explicitly target existing gender networks and
build them into the institutional structures that manage DRR-M. The effective monitoring of the
impacts of gender differentiated capacity for DRR-M will be required for ensuring scale up
actions are sufficiently sensitive to the needs of the poorest and mostvulnerable in the country.
2.1.1 Issues for setting national resilience programme: Based on stakeholder analysis
Bangladesh has made biggest gains in the basic condition of people’s lives in recent years
with positive economic trends, accelerating growth, making growth pro-poor and improving
the indicators of social progress. The county’s GDP is growing at an average of 6 % per year
in the last decade but recent work on the potential for economic growth indicates that
Government is aiming at 7.5 % or higher to reach the middle income country status by 202.
The majority of Government’s development gains comes mainly through the contributors that
include government’s successful social protection programmes, workers’ remittances,
increase in agriculture productivity, dynamic private sector, foreign direct investments, and
non-government organizations’ mobilization for grassroots and social development.
Significant progress is also made in socio-economic sectors such as education (particularly
women education), human health (decreasing early marriages, awareness on pregnancy
planning and decreasing birthrates), urban employment (increased jobs opportunities for
women in garment industry), access to rural micro credit (women empowerment), and
enhancement of financial independence of women contributing to communities and society in
general.
In Bangladesh’s growth and development however is exposed to changing risks landscape.
Recent human development reports indicated that, by 2050, up to 140 million Bangladeshis
can be at risk to disasters, the majority could be in coastal areas and in dense urban
communities.Recent government disasterreports also shows that the mortality from disasters
has been hugely reduced, however the disaster losses are steadily increasing with damage
levels ten times higher now than previous decades. These findings plainly states that
catastrophic disaster events that occur in the country would be of greatest challenge that the
population of the country will be facing, and it’s the most vulnerable men and women who are
most immediately at risk. This highlights that disaster events are not just a future scenario.
Increased exposure to disaster events (floods, storms, cyclones, sea-level rise, tornados,
earthquakes, droughts) not only already destroy economics opportunities and but reinforce
inequality broadly. So, it is no longer possible to ignore evidenced-based and risk-informed
resilience planning as an element in Bangladesh’s development planning process as there is
a serious danger that over time the frequency and intensity of disaster risks would increase
due to global warming and associated shocks and stresses, ultimately undermining decades
of country’s development interventions, and increase in pervasiveness of poverty that would
affect the economic sectors with implications extended to food security, energy, water,
livelihoods, health and habitat. Hence there is a need for integrated and coordinated approach
to make disaster risk more risk-informed development planning.
Population density is also a critical factor for widespread of disasters in Bangladesh. With the
high population density of Bangladesh making land a premium asset, the extremely poor and
marginalized are often forced by circumstance to settle on the most hazard-exposed, least
desirable land. Lack of household resources means that these most-exposed dwellings also
tend to be very fragile. In rural areas, their high level of exposure and fragile mud-and-wood
22. 22
dwellings means that the extremely poor are the most likely to experience loss or damage of
their home, crops and other assets by disaster. Inundation of fields and farmland by storm
surges or floods severely undermine the basis of rural livelihoods. In areas affected by
repeated flood or cyclone-induced storm surges, this results in a cycle or repeated loss and
attempts at recovery. The repeated realization of household resources to recover depletes
families’ asset bases and prevents poverty graduation, leading to sustained pockets of poverty
in the most hazard-prone areas of the country, and in the most vulnerable social groups,
especially women. In future planning and implementation of disaster risk programmes in
Bangladesh, the Government need to accordingly adapt with layers of risk-informed resiliency
in their business practices and investment decisions to reduce losses and damages occurdue
to disaster events.
Considering the slowness of recovery following disasters in the past decade, there is a need
to improve national capacity for resilient recovery and building back better following a disaster
at any scale. Recovery is not a sector to itself nor the mandate of a single ministry, but needs
to be integrated fully in policy and in the practice of all sectors. It is dependent on accurate,
holistic and timely needs assessments following disasters, for which capacity is currently low
and Bangladesh has yet to adopt the internationally recognized tool such as the post disaster
needs assessment (PDNA). Currently national disaster management frameworks such as
SoD addresses and assigns roles in the recovery process, but this require further upgradation
by taking into consideration of principles of Building Back Better. And there is also large
capacity gap in the GoB ministries, institutions and among key NGOs and agencies to be able
to fully integrate gender-, disability- and age-sensitive, resilience-building recovery and
preparedness for recovery into their programmes.Filling these gaps, as well as demonstrating
models for resilient recovery, is crucial to strengthen Bangladesh’s resilience and ability to
reshape and continue development progress following disaster.
Disasters affects everybody (people, community, society as whole) but its effects are severely
felt on the marginalized and dis-advantaged groups; but primarily women and girls bear the
brunt of disasters. Women in Bangladesh are the first to face the impact of disasters and
climate change induced shocks and stress. According to evidence-based studies carried out
in Bangladesh, women face a ‘double disaster’ including increased violence, poverty and
insecurity. A study by Neumayer and Plümper states that women and children are 14 times
more likely to die or be injured in a disaster than men. During the 1991 cyclone in Bangladesh,
reports state that 90% of the 138,000 killed were women11
. In addition to these staggering
fatality statistics,women are affected by climate change and disasters more than men in other
ways. Some of the key determinants that are causing disproportionate vulnerabilities for the
women are the increased levels of poverty compared to men; lack of ownership, control and
access to resources and productive assets compared to their male counterparts is another
contributing factor, along with discriminatory land rights and inheritance practices against
them. Further, women’s lower valuing and status in society means that their caloric intake is
lower than those in the rest of the family, their health and sanitation needs often go unmet and
are increased with violence during the times of disaster and hazards.
Womenalso have fewer livelihood opportunities, especially in remote disaster/climateaffected
areas and are paid even less for the same day’s work compared to their male peers. These
inequities contribute to women’s higher risk and increased vulnerability compared to men.
Studies concluded that there is high prevalence of gender inequalities in the country which
are further limiting their ability to respond and adapt to these disasters. Hence there is a need
for reducing disaster risk for women demanding an explicit focus on reducing gender
11
Neumayer, E & Plümper, T. (2007) The gendered nature of natural disasters: the impact of catastrophic eventson the gender ga p in
life expectancy, 1981–2002.
23. 23
inequalities through risk-informed gender resilience approach (or gender responsive resilience
(GRR)). Furthermore, there is also a strong need for broader focus on women within disaster
risk reduction and response to not only mainstream the gender resilience that reduce some of
the impact of disasters but to have more fundamental social change, including greater access
to and control over resources and enhanced status and power in decision making roles, that
are necessary to really reduce women’s disaster risk. In the future programme, Government
need to strongly emphasize future resilience building efforts by placing women and girls at the
center of planning, building their leadership capabilities, promoting their networks and
interactions as well as their participation in community and national decision-making
processes; thus further enhancing gender-equality in DRR/DRM. Recent analyses have
underscored the important economic benefits of equal opportunities for women to participate
in the economy (estimated to contribute $28 trillion (26%) of global growth by 202512
) and in
having more women in leadership positions13
both of which would support Bangladesh’s aim
in achieving middle-income country status.
The goal of gender equality will not be achieved by only satisfying women’s and girls’ short-
term, practical DRR needs. These are necessary but not sufficient. Things like enabling
women’s participation in DRRcommittees (with careful consideration not to overload women’s
already busy lives, like choosing meeting times and places appropriately which would fit in
with women’s caregiving role); provide women and child friendly spaces after disasters (in
order to reduce the risk of sexual harassment and violence); provide income generation
opportunities for women (with assurance that it’s not reinforcing gender stereotypes and/or
overburdening women’s with workload).
Even more important are efforts to satisfy women’s and girls’ longer-term, strategic interests
which include things such as: equal political representation and decision making power (which
can be facilitated by increasing their leadership roles); rights recognition and enforcement
(human, women’s, political, social and cultural, property/land rights which may already exist
but are not activated); combating and preventing violence against women and girls (by
changing attitudes and behaviours of men and boys and society generally through respected
champions and opinion leaders); increased resourcing of sexual and reproductive health
needs (because these are a forgotten category of health provision after disasters); anti-
discriminatory practices in labour markets and opportunities for non-traditional work/income
generation and apprenticeships (to allow women and girls to study and earn a livelihood in the
more prestigious and remunerative employment categories); facilitation of women’s local
community organizing (because women and girls need the support of others to enable them
to act effectively).
Unplanned urbanization is also taking place at a rapid pace within the risk profile of
Bangladesh with an increasing characteristics of various urban risks (slums, water and
drainage problems, sanitation issues, poor infrastructures, fires, chemical & fuel spills, etc).
Poor construction methods and materials, over crowding, and fragile infrastructure make
rapidly growing cities vulnerable to the impacts of natural hazards. This is true not only for
cities like Dhaka and Chittagong but also for the medium and small cities where over half of
the growth in urban population is taking place. The densely built and fragile physical
environment in these cities exacerbate the vulnerability of the population to earthquake risk,
as shown by the death of 1127 people in 2013 Rana Plaza factory collapse, without an
earthquake. With the concentration of industrial production – the major driver of economic
growth in Bangladesh – concentrated in the cities, the national economy would also be highly
12
Jonathan Woetzel, AnuMadgavkar, Kweilin Ellingrud, Eric Labaye,SandrineDevillard, Eric Kutcher, JamesManyika, Richard Dobbs,
Mekala Krishnan 2015 THE POWER OF PARITY: HOW ADVANCING WOMEN’S EQUALITY CAN ADD $12 TRILLION TO GLOBAL
GROWTH, McKinsey Global Institute http://www.mckinsey.com/global-themes/employment-and-growth/how-advancing-womens-
equality-can-add-12-trillion-to-global-growth
13
Marcus Noland, Tyler Moran, and Barbara Kotschwar 2016 IsGender Diversity Profitable? Evidence from a Global Survey, Working
Paper 16-3 Peterson Institute for International Economics https://piie.com/publications/wp/wp16-3.pdf
24. 24
exposed to both immediate financial loss and prolonged loss of business in the aftermath of
an earthquake. And various other shocks and stresses from natural and climate-induced
hazards would further take a heavy toll on infrastructure systems in the country in the future.
The industrial belt around the major cities in the country are also exposed to the hazardous
materials (HazMat) suchas chemicaland fuel spills area at risk to occurin urban areas. These
risks occur mainly due to uncontrolled daily storage and transportation of chemical
substances. There is a big risk that this could happen due to an earthquake or cyclone, or
even daily due to the industrially related activities e.g. the textile industry. There is serious lack
of a central registration and mapping of these risks in the country and if uncontrolled spills
occur, it is perceived to cause major damages to the population, the infrastructure and have
long-term damages to the environment as a whole. Hence these HazMat issues require
thorough nationalized assessment, monitoring, capacity building measures, protective
equipments for rescue and strengthening the international airports in receiving and
coordinating national and international support for standard operation procedures (SOP), etc.
Future programme of the Government need to recognize the important role that assets and
infrastructure systems play in supporting and sustaining national development efforts,
including the protection of lives and sustainability of livelihoods. The key challenge however
lies in the responsibilities of effective overseeing, coordinating and enforcing compliance
around infrastructure systems design and construction by closing the fragmentation that is
existing in the system,particularly in relation to achieving resilience proactively for new design,
retrospectively for existing assets and systems and for strengthening failure analysis
processes that compliment build-back-better objectives following shock events. Hence there
is a need for systematic and high interactions between agencies involved in the infrastructure
system in the country so as to strengthen resilience within the broader development, urban
and rural contexts.
The recent economic growth of Bangladesh is based on the private-sector and industrial
production led. Moreover, the recent economic trends indicate that the private sector’s annual
investment exceed government expenditure. Thus, private sector assets are also vulnerable
to the adverse impacts of disasters. At the same time, the business community, being the
powerhouse of enterprises and innovation, have key role to play in preventing the creation of
new risks, mitigating the existing risks, and in responding to and recovering from the impacts
of disasters. A very high trends of emerging mega-disasters indicate that earthquake risk in
Bangladesh would increase economic losses due to higher concentration of public and private
assets in high risk areas. The occurrences of earthquakes in the region (Nepal, Myanmar,
North-east India and other earthquakes) has put the stark relief for the need to address
earthquake vulnerability in rapidly growing urban cities of Bangladesh. There is also growing
awareness that exposure to infrequent but devastating earthquakes is very high. A recent
study indicates that shoddy, unregulated building construction,unplanned urban growth, siting
of heavy industries, power plants and structures are all contributing to catastrophic scenarios.
Hence there is a need for meaningful engagement of the private sector in resilience
development by the government through awareness raising, demonstrations and business
contingency plans.
Poorest communities are hardest hit by disasters in Bangladesh as they are exposed to
recurrent natural hazards without the means to recover well. Extreme poverty and social
inequalities are responsible for lower shock absorbing and coping capacities. Mainly poor
communities are forced to migrate to high-risk areas and inhabit fragile ecosystems, like e.g.
far-flung islands (in rivers and along the coast) and flood plains otherwise not be considered
suitable for human settlement. Whilst for years, government has introduced many disaster
mitigations strategies that have enabled vulnerable people and impoverished communities to
be prepared, to survive, but mostly they are risk-avoiding in nature (short-term). The
25. 25
approaches, infrastructure in the past were designed to mitigate the negative impacts on the
poor people and communities; without any analysis of gender aspects or attempt to address
those to reduce inequality, and failed to exploit the positive opportunities. As a result, most
families remained poor and susceptible to further climate variability and disaster shocks.
Hence, there is a need for more resilient and gender-responsive disaster infrastructure for the
poor people and communities.
2.1.2 Lessons learned from past disaster risk reduction and management programmes
The disaster risk management in Bangladesh is a model for success in many ways. The
CDMP-I & II frameworkpre-dates the Hyogo Frameworkfor Action and the successorSFDRR.
The Cyclone Preparedness Programmeis a best practice for community based preparedness.
The other successful highlights in the disaster management are creation of legislative
framework; policy convergence of development and DRR; establishment of coordination with
civil society; technology complimentinglocal knowledge for effective early warning; community
risk assessments and MRVA; updated policy on evacuation and disaster resilience housing;
increasing knowledge and understanding of risk (communication strategy, e-library, etc);
dynamic volunteerism; and etc.
It is commonly recognized that in the past decade, Bangladesh has made considerable
achievement in moving from conventional response and relief practice to a more
comprehensive risk reduction approach (CDMP-II Evaluation Report, 2016). However, as
outlined in the previous section, the social and environmental context is rapidly changing –
and gaps remain.
Gender analysis has been weak throughout disaster management policy and practice
as a whole, leading to a lack of documenting and learning on the impact of disasters
on women and girls, and lack of gender-informed disaster management activities.
Often there are no true impacts of disaster risk reduction due to lack of disaggregated
data which is either not collected, not available or is simply not analysed;
While articulated at policy level, new and emerging hazards are not yet adequately
addressed in practice. In order to be build resilience in this complex and changing
landscape, the disastermanagement communitymustimprove their ability to work with
other actors – such as communities, the private sector, academia and international
actors – and work smarter with each other;
As earthquake preparedness is largely undeveloped in the country, the need to reduce
earthquake risk and build national capacity for responding to a major earthquake is
now prioritized by the National Disaster Management Council, and in the country’s
Seventh Five Year Plan and the review of the National Disaster Management Plan
2010-15. It is well known that Bangladesh has already created internationally
recognized methods of climatic disaster management by the people, through the
cyclone preparedness programme (CPP) and community risk assessments (CRA).
There is a need now to combine the Bangladesh’s experience with that of other
countries, to create a model of earthquake risk management which builds the capacity
of the people to reduce their risk and of government to respond.
There is an inadequate focus on recovery in policy, practice and lesson learning which
feeds into a resource, policy and practice gap in implementing “Build Back Better”
approaches;
Further strengthening mainstreaming effort by integrating DRR and CCA into social
protection systems;
26. 26
Government (MoDMR) continues to move towards a multi-hazard perspective rather
than focus only on cyclone and floods and promote the paradigm shift to risk
reduction in all of Government governance mechanisms;
Programming to align with the Sendai Framework in recognizing poverty as a factor of
vulnerability and should include livelihoods support and social protection; and
There is a need for more robust monitoring and evaluation to build evidence bases on
what works or not - and how it works or not - to develop a culture of learning and secure
Bangladesh’s continued reputation as a global leader on disaster risk reduction and
disaster management. This includes utilizing research and evaluations of previous
programmes such as the CDMP-II.
2.1.3 Process Issues
All of the above issues raise in the rationale for this project emphasis greatly on capacity
building needs across and within Ministries, and across and within (i.e. horizontal and vertical)
other stakeholder groups (national to local government, civil society, academia, private sector,
media, etc). This is more to do with the ‘how’ than the ‘what’ in the Programmeand represents
a significant advance on what has gone before; not just in Bangladesh but globally. To ‘do it
differently – do it better’ requires a step change in attitudes, structures and mechanisms for
working collaboratively across the usual boundaries. This have already established
commitment to working in this collaborative way from the four Ministries and three UN
agencies (UNDP, UN-Women and UNOPS) funded by (DfID and SIDA) involved in the
Programme design and, in a series of interviews and other engagement, with civil society,
have gained enthusiastic support for this new way of working, as well as suggestions for
further contributions and collaborations.
2.2 Programme Principles
Based on lessons learnt in the last decade from DRR interventions of government and
development partners in Bangladesh and considering future risk scenarios, the following set
of principles have been made in this programme design:
a) National ownership: Transformational change in managing risk governance is
conditioned on national ownership. In the changing context shaped by country’s middle
income country (MIC) status, the programme’s focus seeks to secure national
ownership and transformation so that investments supported by DPs are
institutionalized and sustainable.
b) Institutionalization and capacity building: The programme seeks to upgrade
existing capacity (i.e. human, institutional, policy) and financing for preparedness and
response to large scale emergencies. Similarly, the NRP will ensure sustainability of
its outputs by prioritizing institutionalization and capacity building for eventual
handover from the very beginning of activities creating new tools, structures and
entities. This will include ensuring close alignment of activities with GoB and others
partners’ priorities during inception, continuous dialogue, and preparation for handover
throughout project lifespan.
c) Further decentralized response capacity, and citizen engagement and
empowerment: The programme will establish strong local capacity, in each wards in
27. 27
urban and rural areas, with sufficient human, financial and logistical ability for large
scale response capacity. In line with the GoB priorities, the Sendai Framework and
the Dhaka declaration on disability-inclusive Sendai implementation, the NRP will not
only target vulnerable groups as beneficiaries, but as active contributors and leaders
in building the resilience of their households and communities. Additionally, the NRP
will partner with UN Women to implement activities specifically aiming at the
empowerment of women to play leadership roles at all levels of disaster management;
and with UNOPS to make infrastructure more disaster and climate resilient.
d) Aligning to institutional mandate: While a whole-of-government approach is
necessary to enable risk-informed development, present ministerial allocations of
business and mandates do not easily accommodate this approach. Recognizing this,
and taking the long-term perspective of the Sendai Framework period (2015-2030),
the NRP will be implemented with the MoDMR, MOP, MoWCA and LGED (MOLGD).
The NRP will deliver results within the MoDMR MoDMR, MOP, MoWCA and LGED
(MOLGD) mandates and areas of expertise, while also upgrading policies and
practices for an enabling environment for transformative changes in GoB risk
governance in the period 2021-2030. This programme will further leverage diverse
public and private resources to implement national scale programme with adequate
pace to reduce human and economic risk to earthquake.
e) Complementarity and coordination: The NRP will complement other major climate
and disaster resilience building efforts currently being planned or implemented. This
means that activities, locations and beneficiary groups will be selectedso as to fill gaps
in current programming and contribute to transformative change in policy and practice,
not duplicate what others are doing. Some of the major initiatives which must be
considered in view of this includes the World Bank and JICA urban earthquake
resilience programmes, the urban climate resilience component of the next phase of
UNDP’s Urban Poverty Reduction programme, and the upcoming UNDP local climate
risk reduction programme LoGIC, and etc.
f) Creation of replicable models of intervention: The NRP will focus on developing
replicable, cost-efficient, and inclusive models for a) building adaptive capacity through
social safety net programming and b) supporting resilient recovery through
participatory, needs-directed processes.
g) Accountability: NRP project governance and management structure and practices
should structure and work in such a way that reinforces mutual accountability,
consistent decision-making and must be characterized by the active involvement and
guidance of stakeholders.
h) Gender-responsive programming and management: Gender analysis has been
weak throughout disaster management policy and practice as a whole throughout until
recent past, leading to a lack of learning on the impact of disasters on women and
girls, and lack of gender-informed disaster management activities. There was also
relatively low level of impact of previous gender and disaster interventions in previous
government programmes and initiatives and therefore the is a need for more
transformative change. The NRP will be using a gender strategy to mainstream the
issue throughout the programme.
2.3 Theory of Change
The CDMP-II phase 2010-2015 demonstrated disaster risk reduction and disaster
management results from integrating disaster risks in the national development policy,
28. 28
planning and budget processes. But despite the successful past DRR programmes and other
large ongoing baseline programmes, economic development and livelihoods of the
Bangladesh are still threatened by uncertainties associated with recurrent disasters and mega
disasters. The Government of Bangladesh is aware that country’s ability to achieve human
and economic development continues to be constrained by its limited ability to manage
growing threats and risks from that emerging disasters (earthquake and climate extremes)
and requires urgent actions. The national programme process on DRR however requires a
sustained engagement over time in order to realise direct economic, social and development
gains. The objective of this national resilience programme formulation is to systematically
integrate measures to address additional risks associated with mega disasters, climate
change shocks and stresses and enable the nation to build resilience of vulnerable individuals,
households and communities from the ground up. The CDMP-II lessons learned have
contributed to strengthened DRR strategy for current programme which is centred on an
enhanced theory of change. In outline the theory of change is that:
Managementof the country’s main economic driversisnot risk informed. The private
sector investments i.e. industrialisation that are currently the main driver of the economy
is not sufficiently informed by earthquake and climatic risk and lacks commitment to
employing robust business continuity models. This poses a significant risk to national
economy and the employment system as well as international economy due to its
interconnectedness.
Gender responsive resilience and mainstreaming. Vulnerable women, people with
disability (many of whom are also women and so doubly impacted) and marginalized
people have unequal access to information, technology, power and resources to increase
their adaptive capacity and influence local and national DRM policies and actions.
Coherence and integration of resilient infrastructure in DRR and CCAplanning and
practices. There is a need to establish systems,processes and capacities that strengthen
resilience to natural and climate induced shocks and stresses by reducing the loss and
damage to critical assets and infrastructure systems to the greatest extent possible. This
requires address disaster risks and climate change at all stages of the infrastructure
process (planning, design, construction, maintenance) and apply innovative solutions to
combat disaster and climate risks by using new construction techniques and materials,
supported by a research and development.
Return of Mortality and Morbidity Risk. Despite significant achievement in reducing
mortality risk due with flood and cyclone, the potential of its return is high in the context of
growing earthquake risk. Furthermore, where we have disaggregated data, it is clear that
there are different impacts on different social groups.
Limited continuity and recoverycapacity for essential urban and rural services in the
context of large scale disasters.
Active engagement of communities in resilience building. There is urgent need to
promote and facilitate better understanding of disaster and climate change related risks
among vulnerable population with a view to demonstrate models of good practices in
community-led resilience building measures.
Disaster risk sets limit to poverty graduation. Limited access to information, services
and resources for people living in chronic vulnerability areas where flooding, tidal surges,
river erosion and salinity are regular feature of life, causes people to either not graduate
from poverty at all or to fall back into poverty when disaster hits.
National Resilience Programme - Beyond business as usual (hypothesis and
assumptions)
Disasters is a threat that, in the shorter-term, will significantly affect the people, communities
and society at large given their limited resources and high exposure to risks. In medium-to-
longer-term, improved knowledge of such vulnerability is needed in order to design
appropriate response and mitigation strategies. Although significant progress in many strides
29. 29
has been made in DRR/DRM with substantial investments by the national government and
international community; however other emerging challenges (eg. mega-disasters,
earthquakes, urban risks, fires, soil salinity, gender-equity, infrastructure) have not yet been
able to fully incorporate into the development policies.
So, the theory of change for the national resilience programme is formulated based on
evaluation of current features and gaps in Bangladesh’s disaster management in light of the
recommendations of the Sendai Framework, the 7th Five Year Plan, and the Sustainable
Development Goals. Which would reflect that if:
the current national preparedness to manage recurrent and mega-disasters (earthquake
risk) is risk-informed and upgraded in a way which both develops national and localized
capacity and includes provisions for international assistance when needed; and
the most vulnerable, excluded and marginalized people living in disaster/climate hotspots
have access to risk information on disasters and climate adaptation, and are supported to
make their poverty graduation resilient; and
women’s capacities, skills, and access to information and leadership in disaster
management are enhanced and the enabling environment is made gender responsive;
upgraded and innovative disaster and climate resilience policies, plans, strategies and
practices support public and private sectordevelopment to become risk-informed and risk-
proofed; and
the national and local capacities are upgraded to strengthen inclusive, resilient recovery
after a disaster; and
the design and construction of new infrastructure assets and systems are standardized as
being resilient and gender sensitive to natural and climate-induced shocks and stresses;
and
carefully chosen incentives, demand for changes and transformation are created for
sustaining capacity building outcomes (e.g. transformation);
Then will have:
Households, communities and businesses with improved capacities to prepare, manage,
and recover from the climate-induced and natural disasters; leading to
Persons, communities, infrastructures, cities and the country as a whole becoming less
vulnerable to the impacts of climate and disaster shocks; resulting in
Increased national capacity to anticipate hazards, absorb shocks, and reshape
development, significantly reducing climate and natural disaster risk to sustained human
development and economic growth in Bangladesh.
The above elucidated theory of change is depended on the set of assumptions. Which are:
That the GOB’s current commitment in DRR and DRM sustains throughout the project
period for their contribution as well as openness to transformational changes in the
capacity at all levels. Capacity building initiatives sustains when it is building on
commitment and demand of the government (CDMP II lessons).
